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Tennessee Volunteers v Tennessee State Tigers — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Friday 13 November 2026 · NCAAB · 2027

NCAAB results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

nba-normal No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.
Tennessee Volunteers win
97.1%
Draw
0.0%
Tennessee State Tigers win
2.9%

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
nba-normal 84.69–64.77 85-65 0% 50% 0%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

Century marks 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tennessee Volunteers to score 100+ 6.5% 8.8% 3.4% 2.55× 11.38
Tennessee Volunteers to score 110+ 0.5% 0.4% 0.7% 0.52× 283.25
Tennessee Volunteers to score 120+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 4.87× 283.35
Tennessee Volunteers to score 130+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 19.47× 283.36
Tennessee State Tigers to score 100+ 0.0% 0.4% 1.1% 0.33× 283.35
Tennessee State Tigers to score 110+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 1.95× 283.36
Tennessee State Tigers to score 120+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 12.98× 283.36
Tennessee State Tigers to score 130+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 38.95× 283.36
Both sides to score 100+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% 0.87× 283.35
H1 result 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tennessee Volunteers to win H1 85.0% 88.6% 57.9% 1.53× 1.13
Tennessee Volunteers to win H1 84.9% 83.7% 57.9% 1.44× 1.20
Tennessee State Tigers to win H1 12.5% 10.8% 38.2% 0.28× 9.26
Tennessee State Tigers to win H1 12.5% 10.8% 38.2% 0.28× 9.26
H1 tied 2.5% 3.9% 3.9% 0.99× 25.87
H1 tied 2.5% 3.9% 3.9% 0.99× 25.87
H1 total 40
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H1 under 83.5 88.5% 87.7% 90.3% 0.97× 1.14
H1 over 59.5 85.6% 87.7% 80.7% 1.09× 1.14
H1 under 79.5 80.3% 82.5% 83.1% 0.99× 1.21
H1 under 79.5 79.6% 77.4% 83.1% 0.93× 1.29
H1 over 63.5 76.0% 77.4% 69.0% 1.12× 1.29
H1 over 63.5 75.3% 77.4% 69.0% 1.12× 1.29
H1 under 76.5 71.3% 73.5% 75.5% 0.97× 1.36
H1 under 76.5 70.7% 73.5% 75.5% 0.97× 1.36
H1 over 66.5 66.0% 67.4% 58.2% 1.16× 1.48
H1 over 66.5 65.5% 67.4% 58.2% 1.16× 1.48
H1 under 74.5 64.3% 62.7% 69.6% 0.90× 1.59
H1 under 74.5 63.9% 62.7% 69.6% 0.90× 1.59
H1 over 68.5 58.6% 58.2% 50.7% 1.15× 1.72
H1 over 68.5 58.3% 58.2% 50.7% 1.15× 1.72
H1 under 72.5 56.8% 58.2% 63.3% 0.92× 1.72
H1 under 72.5 56.6% 58.2% 63.3% 0.92× 1.72
H1 under 71.5 53.0% 52.6% 60.0% 0.88× 1.90
H1 under 71.5 52.9% 52.6% 60.0% 0.88× 1.90
H1 over 70.5 50.9% 52.6% 43.5% 1.21× 1.90
H1 over 70.5 50.9% 52.6% 43.5% 1.21× 1.90
H1 under 70.5 49.1% 47.4% 56.5% 0.84× 2.11
H1 under 70.5 49.1% 47.4% 56.5% 0.84× 2.11
H1 over 71.5 47.0% 47.4% 40.0% 1.19× 2.11
H1 over 71.5 47.1% 47.4% 40.0% 1.19× 2.11
H1 over 72.5 43.2% 41.8% 36.7% 1.14× 2.39
H1 over 72.5 43.4% 41.8% 36.7% 1.14× 2.39
H1 under 68.5 41.7% 41.8% 49.3% 0.85× 2.39
H1 under 68.5 41.4% 41.8% 49.3% 0.85× 2.39
H1 over 74.5 35.7% 37.3% 30.4% 1.23× 2.68
H1 over 74.5 36.1% 37.3% 30.4% 1.23× 2.68
H1 under 66.5 34.5% 32.6% 41.8% 0.78× 3.07
H1 under 66.5 34.0% 32.6% 41.8% 0.78× 3.07
H1 over 76.5 29.3% 26.5% 24.5% 1.08× 3.77
H1 over 76.5 28.7% 26.5% 24.5% 1.08× 3.77
H1 under 63.5 24.7% 22.6% 31.0% 0.73× 4.43
H1 under 63.5 24.0% 22.6% 31.0% 0.73× 4.43
H1 over 79.5 20.4% 22.6% 16.9% 1.34× 4.43
H1 over 79.5 19.7% 17.5% 16.9% 1.03× 5.72
H1 under 59.5 14.4% 12.3% 19.3% 0.64× 8.13
H1 over 83.5 11.5% 12.3% 9.7% 1.26× 8.14
H2 result 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tennessee Volunteers to win H2 86.8% 84.1% 56.9% 1.48× 1.19
Tennessee Volunteers to win H2 86.8% 84.1% 57.5% 1.46× 1.19
Tennessee State Tigers to win H2 11.0% 14.7% 38.5% 0.38× 6.79
Tennessee State Tigers to win H2 10.9% 14.7% 38.9% 0.38× 6.79
H2 tied 2.2% 3.9% 4.2% 0.95× 25.37
H2 tied 2.2% 3.9% 4.1% 0.97× 25.37
H2 total 40
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H2 under 91.5 87.0% 85.2% 85.5% 1.00× 1.17
H2 over 67.5 84.4% 81.8% 80.0% 1.02× 1.22
H2 under 87.5 78.6% 75.8% 81.2% 0.93× 1.32
H2 under 87.5 77.9% 75.8% 77.7% 0.98× 1.32
H2 over 71.5 75.0% 72.2% 66.4% 1.09× 1.39
H2 over 71.5 74.3% 72.2% 68.8% 1.05× 1.39
H2 under 84.5 69.8% 66.4% 74.1% 0.90× 1.51
H2 under 84.5 69.3% 66.4% 70.5% 0.94× 1.51
H2 over 74.5 65.4% 66.4% 57.0% 1.16× 1.51
H2 over 74.5 65.0% 66.4% 60.0% 1.11× 1.51
H2 under 82.5 63.1% 61.6% 68.9% 0.89× 1.62
H2 under 82.5 62.8% 61.6% 65.3% 0.94× 1.62
H2 over 76.5 58.5% 57.3% 50.3% 1.14× 1.74
H2 over 76.5 58.2% 57.3% 53.4% 1.07× 1.74
H2 under 80.5 56.1% 57.3% 62.9% 0.91× 1.74
H2 under 80.5 55.9% 57.3% 59.2% 0.97× 1.74
H2 under 79.5 52.4% 52.4% 59.8% 0.88× 1.91
H2 under 79.5 52.3% 52.4% 56.2% 0.93× 1.91
H2 over 78.5 51.2% 52.4% 43.6% 1.20× 1.91
H2 over 78.5 51.2% 52.4% 47.0% 1.11× 1.91
H2 under 78.5 48.8% 47.6% 56.4% 0.84× 2.10
H2 under 78.5 48.8% 47.6% 53.0% 0.90× 2.10
H2 over 79.5 47.6% 47.6% 40.3% 1.18× 2.10
H2 over 79.5 47.7% 47.6% 43.8% 1.09× 2.10
H2 over 80.5 43.9% 42.7% 37.1% 1.15× 2.34
H2 over 80.5 44.1% 42.7% 40.8% 1.05× 2.34
H2 under 76.5 41.5% 42.7% 49.7% 0.86× 2.34
H2 under 76.5 41.8% 42.7% 46.6% 0.92× 2.34
H2 over 82.5 36.9% 38.4% 31.1% 1.23× 2.61
H2 over 82.5 37.2% 38.4% 34.7% 1.11× 2.61
H2 under 74.5 34.6% 33.6% 43.0% 0.78× 2.97
H2 under 74.5 35.0% 33.6% 40.0% 0.84× 2.97
H2 over 84.5 30.7% 33.6% 29.5% 1.14× 2.97
H2 over 84.5 30.2% 33.6% 25.9% 1.30× 2.97
H2 under 71.5 25.7% 27.8% 31.2% 0.89× 3.59
H2 under 71.5 25.1% 27.8% 33.6% 0.83× 3.59
H2 over 87.5 21.4% 24.2% 18.8% 1.29× 4.13
H2 over 87.5 22.1% 24.2% 22.3% 1.08× 4.13
H2 under 67.5 15.6% 18.2% 20.0% 0.91× 5.50
H2 over 91.5 13.0% 14.8% 14.5% 1.02× 6.76
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tennessee Volunteers leading at half time 84.9% 83.4% 57.9% 1.44× 1.20
Tennessee State Tigers leading at half time 12.5% 10.3% 38.2% 0.27× 9.70
Level at half time 2.5% 3.8% 3.9% 0.97× 26.42
Handicap 60
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tennessee Volunteers +7.5 99.5% 97.4% 81.0% 1.20× 1.03
Tennessee Volunteers +8.5 99.6% 97.4% 83.3% 1.17× 1.03
Tennessee Volunteers +9.5 99.7% 97.4% 85.3% 1.14× 1.03
Tennessee Volunteers +10.5 99.8% 97.4% 87.2% 1.12× 1.03
Tennessee Volunteers +12.5 99.9% 97.4% 89.9% 1.08× 1.03
Tennessee Volunteers +14.5 99.9% 97.4% 92.2% 1.06× 1.03
Tennessee Volunteers +16.5 100.0% 97.4% 94.0% 1.04× 1.03
Tennessee Volunteers +18.5 100.0% 97.4% 95.4% 1.02× 1.03
Tennessee Volunteers +20.5 100.0% 97.4% 96.5% 1.01× 1.03
Tennessee Volunteers +4.5 98.8% 97.4% 73.7% 1.32× 1.03
Tennessee Volunteers +5.5 99.1% 97.4% 76.4% 1.28× 1.03
Tennessee Volunteers +6.5 99.3% 97.4% 78.8% 1.24× 1.03
Tennessee Volunteers −1.5 96.3% 97.4% 60.8% 1.60× 1.03
Tennessee Volunteers +1.5 97.7% 97.4% 65.4% 1.49× 1.03
Tennessee Volunteers +2.5 98.2% 97.4% 68.0% 1.43× 1.03
Tennessee Volunteers +3.5 98.5% 97.4% 70.8% 1.38× 1.03
Tennessee Volunteers −2.5 95.4% 97.4% 57.7% 1.69× 1.03
Tennessee Volunteers −3.5 94.3% 91.1% 54.1% 1.68× 1.10
Tennessee Volunteers −4.5 93.1% 91.1% 50.7% 1.80× 1.10
Tennessee Volunteers −5.5 91.6% 91.1% 47.0% 1.94× 1.10
Tennessee Volunteers −6.5 90.0% 91.1% 44.3% 2.06× 1.10
Tennessee Volunteers −7.5 88.2% 85.9% 41.3% 2.08× 1.16
Tennessee Volunteers −8.5 86.2% 85.9% 38.5% 2.23× 1.16
Tennessee Volunteers −9.5 83.9% 81.1% 35.5% 2.29× 1.23
Tennessee Volunteers −10.5 81.5% 81.1% 32.6% 2.49× 1.23
Tennessee Volunteers −12.5 76.0% 76.5% 27.6% 2.77× 1.31
Tennessee Volunteers −14.5 69.7% 66.7% 22.8% 2.92× 1.50
Tennessee Volunteers −16.5 62.8% 61.9% 19.3% 3.21× 1.62
Tennessee Volunteers −18.5 55.5% 57.1% 16.1% 3.53× 1.75
Tennessee State Tigers +20.5 52.0% 52.4% 86.5% 0.61× 1.91
Tennessee Volunteers −20.5 48.0% 47.6% 13.5% 3.54× 2.10
Tennessee State Tigers +18.5 44.5% 42.9% 83.9% 0.51× 2.33
Tennessee State Tigers +16.5 37.2% 38.1% 80.7% 0.47× 2.63
Tennessee State Tigers +14.5 30.3% 33.3% 77.2% 0.43× 3.01
Tennessee State Tigers +12.5 24.0% 23.5% 72.4% 0.33× 4.25
Tennessee State Tigers +10.5 18.5% 18.9% 67.4% 0.28× 5.29
Tennessee State Tigers +9.5 16.1% 18.9% 64.5% 0.29× 5.30
Tennessee State Tigers +8.5 13.8% 14.1% 61.5% 0.23× 7.09
Tennessee State Tigers +7.5 11.8% 14.1% 58.7% 0.24× 7.09
Tennessee State Tigers +6.5 10.0% 8.9% 55.7% 0.16× 11.25
Tennessee State Tigers +5.5 8.4% 8.9% 53.0% 0.17× 11.25
Tennessee State Tigers +4.5 6.9% 8.9% 49.3% 0.18× 11.25
Tennessee State Tigers +3.5 5.7% 8.9% 45.9% 0.19× 11.25
Tennessee State Tigers +2.5 4.6% 2.6% 42.3% 0.06× 38.72
Tennessee State Tigers −4.5 1.2% 2.6% 26.3% 0.10× 38.74
Tennessee State Tigers −5.5 0.9% 2.6% 23.6% 0.11× 38.74
Tennessee State Tigers −6.5 0.7% 2.6% 21.2% 0.12× 38.74
Tennessee State Tigers +1.5 3.7% 2.6% 39.2% 0.07× 38.73
Tennessee State Tigers −1.5 2.3% 2.6% 34.6% 0.07× 38.73
Tennessee State Tigers −2.5 1.9% 2.6% 32.0% 0.08× 38.73
Tennessee State Tigers −3.5 1.5% 2.6% 29.3% 0.09× 38.73
Tennessee State Tigers −7.5 0.5% 2.6% 19.0% 0.14× 38.74
Tennessee State Tigers −8.5 0.4% 2.6% 16.7% 0.16× 38.74
Tennessee State Tigers −9.5 0.3% 2.6% 14.7% 0.18× 38.74
Tennessee State Tigers −10.5 0.2% 2.6% 12.8% 0.20× 38.74
Tennessee State Tigers −12.5 0.1% 2.6% 10.1% 0.26× 38.74
Tennessee State Tigers −14.5 0.1% 2.6% 7.8% 0.33× 38.74
Tennessee State Tigers −16.5 0.0% 2.6% 6.0% 0.43× 38.74
Tennessee State Tigers −18.5 0.0% 2.6% 4.6% 0.57× 38.74
Tennessee State Tigers −20.5 0.0% 2.6% 3.5% 0.75× 38.74
Highest scoring half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H2 highest scoring 79.6% 71.6% 70.4% 1.02× 1.40
2nd half highest scoring 78.1% 71.6% 72.5% 0.99× 1.40
1st half highest scoring 21.9% 28.4% 27.5% 1.03× 3.53
H1 highest scoring 20.4% 28.4% 29.6% 0.96× 3.53
HT/FT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tennessee Volunteers at HT / Tennessee Volunteers at FT 83.9% 84.6% 48.6% 1.74× 1.18
Tennessee State Tigers at HT / Tennessee Volunteers at FT 10.8% 12.2% 12.4% 0.99× 8.18
Level at HT / Tennessee Volunteers at FT 2.4% 2.1% 2.3% 0.92× 47.75
Tennessee State Tigers at HT / Tennessee State Tigers at FT 1.7% 2.1% 25.8% 0.08× 47.76
Tennessee Volunteers at HT / Tennessee State Tigers at FT 1.0% 2.1% 9.3% 0.22× 47.77
Level at HT / Tennessee State Tigers at FT 0.2% 2.1% 1.6% 1.28× 47.79
Moneyline 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tennessee Volunteers to win 97.1% 97.4% 63.2% 1.54× 1.03
Tennessee State Tigers to win 2.9% 2.6% 36.8% 0.07× 39.15
Odd/Even 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tennessee Volunteers even 50.0% 50.5% 50.1% 1.01× 1.98
Tennessee State Tigers even 50.0% 50.5% 50.4% 1.00× 1.98
Total points odd 50.3% 50.5% 51.6% 0.98× 1.98
Tennessee Volunteers odd 50.0% 49.5% 49.9% 0.99× 2.02
Tennessee State Tigers odd 50.0% 49.5% 49.6% 1.00× 2.02
Total points even 49.7% 49.5% 48.4% 1.02× 2.02
Overtime 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
No overtime 97.1% 97.0% 94.2% 1.03× 1.03
Match to go to overtime 2.9% 3.0% 5.8% 0.52× 33.46
Team total 44
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tennessee Volunteers under 95.5 86.5% 83.9% 94.0% 0.89× 1.19
Tennessee State Tigers under 75.5 87.1% 83.9% 64.7% 1.30× 1.19
Tennessee Volunteers over 75.5 83.2% 80.7% 51.0% 1.58× 1.24
Tennessee State Tigers over 55.5 83.7% 80.7% 91.3% 0.88× 1.24
Tennessee Volunteers under 92.5 78.6% 75.1% 90.8% 0.83× 1.33
Tennessee State Tigers under 72.5 79.3% 75.1% 55.3% 1.36× 1.33
Tennessee Volunteers over 78.5 74.2% 70.7% 41.6% 1.70× 1.41
Tennessee State Tigers over 58.5 74.6% 70.7% 86.2% 0.82× 1.41
Tennessee Volunteers under 90.5 72.2% 70.7% 88.1% 0.80× 1.41
Tennessee State Tigers under 70.5 72.8% 70.7% 48.7% 1.45× 1.41
Tennessee Volunteers over 80.5 67.1% 66.4% 35.1% 1.89× 1.51
Tennessee State Tigers over 60.5 67.3% 66.4% 82.0% 0.81× 1.51
Tennessee State Tigers under 68.5 65.4% 66.4% 41.6% 1.60× 1.51
Tennessee Volunteers under 88.5 64.9% 61.2% 84.8% 0.72× 1.63
Tennessee Volunteers over 82.5 59.4% 57.1% 29.2% 1.95× 1.75
Tennessee State Tigers over 62.5 59.4% 57.1% 76.6% 0.75× 1.75
Tennessee Volunteers under 86.5 57.0% 57.1% 80.8% 0.71× 1.75
Tennessee State Tigers under 66.5 57.3% 57.1% 35.3% 1.62× 1.75
Tennessee Volunteers over 84.5 51.2% 52.3% 23.9% 2.19× 1.91
Tennessee Volunteers under 85.5 52.9% 52.3% 78.6% 0.67× 1.91
Tennessee State Tigers over 64.5 51.1% 52.3% 70.7% 0.74× 1.91
Tennessee State Tigers under 65.5 53.1% 52.3% 32.2% 1.62× 1.91
Tennessee Volunteers under 84.5 48.8% 47.7% 76.1% 0.63× 2.09
Tennessee Volunteers over 85.5 47.1% 47.7% 21.4% 2.23× 2.09
Tennessee State Tigers under 64.5 48.9% 47.7% 29.3% 1.63× 2.09
Tennessee State Tigers over 65.5 46.9% 47.7% 67.8% 0.70× 2.09
Tennessee Volunteers over 86.5 43.0% 42.9% 19.2% 2.24× 2.33
Tennessee State Tigers over 66.5 42.7% 42.9% 64.7% 0.66× 2.33
Tennessee Volunteers under 82.5 40.6% 42.9% 70.8% 0.61× 2.33
Tennessee State Tigers under 62.5 40.6% 42.9% 23.4% 1.83× 2.33
Tennessee Volunteers over 88.5 35.1% 38.8% 15.2% 2.55× 2.58
Tennessee State Tigers over 68.5 34.6% 33.6% 58.4% 0.58× 2.98
Tennessee Volunteers under 80.5 32.9% 33.6% 64.9% 0.52× 2.98
Tennessee State Tigers under 60.5 32.7% 33.6% 18.0% 1.86× 2.98
Tennessee Volunteers over 90.5 27.8% 29.3% 11.9% 2.46× 3.42
Tennessee State Tigers over 70.5 27.2% 29.3% 51.4% 0.57× 3.42
Tennessee Volunteers under 78.5 25.8% 29.3% 58.4% 0.50× 3.42
Tennessee State Tigers under 58.5 25.4% 29.3% 13.8% 2.13× 3.42
Tennessee Volunteers over 92.5 21.4% 24.9% 9.2% 2.71× 4.02
Tennessee State Tigers over 72.5 20.7% 24.9% 44.7% 0.56× 4.02
Tennessee Volunteers under 75.5 16.8% 19.3% 49.0% 0.39× 5.18
Tennessee State Tigers under 55.5 16.3% 19.3% 8.7% 2.22× 5.18
Tennessee Volunteers over 95.5 13.5% 16.1% 6.0% 2.70× 6.21
Tennessee State Tigers over 75.5 12.9% 16.1% 35.3% 0.46× 6.21
Total points 30
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 129.5 points 89.7% 85.0% 83.3% 1.02× 1.18
Under 169.5 points 89.4% 85.0% 87.7% 0.97× 1.18
Over 134.5 points 82.8% 80.6% 74.7% 1.08× 1.24
Under 164.5 points 82.5% 80.6% 82.3% 0.98× 1.24
Over 139.5 points 73.6% 70.8% 64.6% 1.10× 1.41
Under 159.5 points 73.3% 70.8% 75.0% 0.94× 1.41
Over 142.5 points 67.1% 65.9% 58.3% 1.13× 1.52
Under 156.5 points 66.8% 65.9% 69.8% 0.94× 1.52
Over 144.5 points 62.4% 61.5% 54.1% 1.14× 1.63
Under 154.5 points 62.2% 61.5% 66.4% 0.93× 1.63
Over 146.5 points 57.6% 56.5% 49.8% 1.13× 1.77
Under 152.5 points 57.3% 56.5% 62.7% 0.90× 1.77
Over 148.5 points 52.6% 52.3% 45.7% 1.14× 1.91
Under 150.5 points 52.4% 52.3% 58.4% 0.90× 1.91
Over 149.5 points 50.1% 52.3% 43.7% 1.20× 1.91
Under 149.5 points 49.9% 47.7% 56.3% 0.85× 2.10
Under 148.5 points 47.4% 47.7% 54.3% 0.88× 2.10
Over 150.5 points 47.6% 47.7% 41.6% 1.15× 2.10
Under 146.5 points 42.4% 43.5% 50.2% 0.87× 2.30
Over 152.5 points 42.7% 43.5% 37.4% 1.16× 2.30
Under 144.5 points 37.6% 38.5% 45.9% 0.84× 2.60
Over 154.5 points 37.8% 38.5% 33.6% 1.15× 2.60
Under 142.5 points 32.9% 34.1% 41.7% 0.82× 2.93
Over 156.5 points 33.2% 34.1% 30.2% 1.13× 2.93
Over 159.5 points 26.7% 29.2% 25.0% 1.17× 3.43
Under 139.5 points 26.4% 29.2% 35.4% 0.82× 3.43
Under 134.5 points 17.2% 19.4% 25.3% 0.77× 5.15
Over 164.5 points 17.5% 19.4% 17.7% 1.10× 5.15
Under 129.5 points 10.3% 15.0% 16.7% 0.89× 6.69
Over 169.5 points 10.6% 15.0% 12.3% 1.22× 6.69
Win both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tennessee Volunteers to win both halves 72.6% 72.0% 33.2% 2.17× 1.39
Tennessee State Tigers to win both halves 0.6% 3.0% 14.5% 0.20× 33.81
Winning margin 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tennessee Volunteers by 26+ 30.1% 37.4% 7.9% 4.74× 2.67
Tennessee Volunteers by 16-20 18.3% 16.8% 7.6% 2.20× 5.97
Tennessee Volunteers by 21-25 17.9% 16.8% 5.6% 3.01× 5.97
Tennessee Volunteers by 11-15 15.2% 16.8% 11.6% 1.45× 5.97
Tennessee Volunteers by 6-10 10.2% 12.3% 14.4% 0.86× 8.11
Tennessee Volunteers by 1-5 5.5% 7.5% 16.2% 0.46× 13.40
Tennessee State Tigers by 1-5 2.0% 2.0% 13.2% 0.15× 49.31
Tennessee State Tigers by 6-10 0.7% 2.0% 10.8% 0.19× 49.32
Tennessee State Tigers by 11-15 0.2% 2.0% 6.1% 0.33× 49.33
Tennessee State Tigers by 16-20 0.0% 2.0% 3.3% 0.61× 49.33
Tennessee State Tigers by 21-25 0.0% 2.0% 1.9% 1.06× 49.33
Tennessee State Tigers by 26+ 0.0% 2.0% 1.6% 1.30× 49.33
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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