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Toronto Raptors v Orlando Magic — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Wednesday 28 October 2026 · NBA · 2027

NBA results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

nba-normal No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.
Toronto Raptors win
60.6%
Draw
0.0%
Orlando Magic win
39.4%

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
nba-normal 112.89–109.08 113-109 0% 49% 0%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

Century marks 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Toronto Raptors to score 100+ 87.2% 85.0% 89.3% 0.95× 1.18
Orlando Magic to score 100+ 79.2% 77.0% 85.9% 0.90× 1.30
Both sides to score 100+ 70.4% 72.3% 77.5% 0.93× 1.38
Toronto Raptors to score 110+ 61.5% 61.8% 67.0% 0.92× 1.62
Orlando Magic to score 110+ 48.4% 47.0% 60.9% 0.77× 2.13
Toronto Raptors to score 120+ 29.0% 27.6% 36.5% 0.75× 3.63
Orlando Magic to score 120+ 18.6% 17.6% 29.7% 0.59× 5.69
Toronto Raptors to score 130+ 8.1% 8.8% 12.8% 0.69× 11.36
Orlando Magic to score 130+ 4.0% 0.4% 10.0% 0.04× 282.56
H1 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Toronto Raptors to win H1 55.2% 57.3% 52.8% 1.08× 1.75
Orlando Magic to win H1 41.3% 42.7% 44.1% 0.97× 2.34
H1 tied 3.4% 3.9% 3.1% 1.25× 25.86
H1 total 40
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H1 over 101.5 82.1% 83.2% 84.9% 0.98× 1.20
H1 under 125.5 81.8% 83.2% 80.7% 1.03× 1.20
H1 under 124.5 83.1% 82.5% 78.4% 1.05× 1.21
H1 over 100.5 81.2% 82.5% 86.8% 0.95× 1.21
H1 over 105.5 73.1% 74.0% 75.8% 0.98× 1.35
H1 under 121.5 72.7% 74.0% 71.2% 1.04× 1.35
H1 under 120.5 74.3% 73.5% 68.4% 1.07× 1.36
H1 over 104.5 71.9% 73.5% 78.3% 0.94× 1.36
H1 over 108.5 65.0% 68.0% 67.7% 1.01× 1.47
H1 under 117.5 66.3% 67.4% 59.6% 1.13× 1.48
H1 under 118.5 64.6% 63.3% 62.9% 1.01× 1.58
H1 over 107.5 63.6% 62.7% 70.4% 0.89× 1.59
H1 under 115.5 60.5% 62.7% 53.6% 1.17× 1.59
H1 over 109.5 57.7% 58.2% 65.0% 0.90× 1.72
H1 over 110.5 59.3% 58.2% 61.9% 0.94× 1.72
H1 under 116.5 58.8% 58.2% 56.6% 1.03× 1.72
H1 under 113.5 54.5% 52.6% 47.6% 1.11× 1.90
H1 under 112.5 51.4% 52.6% 44.2% 1.19× 1.90
H1 over 111.5 51.6% 52.6% 59.0% 0.89× 1.90
H1 under 114.5 52.8% 52.5% 50.4% 1.04× 1.90
H1 over 114.5 47.2% 47.5% 49.6% 0.96× 2.11
H1 over 112.5 48.6% 47.4% 55.8% 0.85× 2.11
H1 under 111.5 48.4% 47.4% 41.0% 1.15× 2.11
H1 over 113.5 45.5% 47.4% 52.4% 0.90× 2.11
H1 over 116.5 41.2% 41.8% 43.4% 0.96× 2.39
H1 under 110.5 40.7% 41.8% 38.1% 1.10× 2.39
H1 under 109.5 42.3% 41.8% 35.0% 1.19× 2.39
H1 over 115.5 39.5% 37.3% 46.4% 0.80× 2.68
H1 under 107.5 36.4% 37.3% 29.6% 1.26× 2.68
H1 over 118.5 35.4% 36.7% 37.1% 0.99× 2.72
H1 over 117.5 33.7% 32.6% 40.4% 0.81× 3.07
H1 under 108.5 35.0% 32.0% 32.3% 0.99× 3.13
H1 under 104.5 28.1% 26.5% 21.7% 1.22× 3.77
H1 over 120.5 25.7% 26.5% 31.6% 0.84× 3.77
H1 over 121.5 27.3% 26.0% 28.8% 0.90× 3.84
H1 under 105.5 26.9% 26.0% 24.2% 1.07× 3.84
H1 under 100.5 18.8% 17.5% 13.2% 1.33× 5.72
H1 over 124.5 16.9% 17.5% 21.7% 0.81× 5.73
H1 over 125.5 18.2% 16.8% 19.3% 0.87× 5.96
H1 under 101.5 17.9% 16.8% 15.1% 1.11× 5.96
H2 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Toronto Raptors to win H2 55.1% 55.0% 51.6% 1.07× 1.82
Orlando Magic to win H2 41.4% 43.5% 44.7% 0.97× 2.30
H2 tied 3.5% 3.9% 3.7% 1.06× 25.36
H2 total 40
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H2 under 122.5 83.5% 81.8% 74.4% 1.10× 1.22
H2 over 98.5 81.3% 81.8% 86.2% 0.95× 1.22
H2 under 123.5 82.2% 81.5% 76.9% 1.06× 1.23
H2 over 99.5 82.1% 81.5% 84.4% 0.97× 1.23
H2 under 119.5 73.2% 72.5% 66.4% 1.09× 1.38
H2 over 103.5 73.0% 72.5% 76.2% 0.95× 1.38
H2 under 118.5 74.7% 72.2% 63.6% 1.14× 1.39
H2 over 102.5 71.8% 72.2% 78.5% 0.92× 1.39
H2 under 115.5 66.7% 66.4% 55.4% 1.20× 1.51
H2 under 116.5 65.1% 64.4% 58.1% 1.11× 1.55
H2 over 106.5 64.9% 62.6% 68.8% 0.91× 1.60
H2 over 105.5 63.5% 61.6% 71.3% 0.86× 1.62
H2 under 113.5 60.9% 61.6% 50.1% 1.23× 1.62
H2 under 114.5 59.2% 58.0% 52.5% 1.10× 1.72
H2 over 108.5 59.0% 58.0% 63.8% 0.91× 1.72
H2 over 107.5 57.5% 57.3% 66.2% 0.87× 1.74
H2 under 111.5 54.8% 52.4% 44.7% 1.17× 1.91
H2 under 110.5 51.7% 52.4% 41.9% 1.25× 1.91
H2 over 109.5 51.4% 52.4% 60.9% 0.86× 1.91
H2 under 112.5 53.2% 52.1% 47.4% 1.10× 1.92
H2 over 112.5 46.8% 48.0% 52.6% 0.91× 2.09
H2 over 110.5 48.3% 47.6% 58.1% 0.82× 2.10
H2 under 109.5 48.6% 47.6% 39.1% 1.22× 2.10
H2 over 111.5 45.2% 47.6% 55.3% 0.86× 2.10
H2 under 107.5 42.5% 42.7% 33.8% 1.26× 2.34
H2 under 108.5 41.0% 42.0% 36.2% 1.16× 2.38
H2 over 114.5 40.8% 42.0% 47.5% 0.88× 2.38
H2 over 113.5 39.1% 38.4% 49.9% 0.77× 2.61
H2 under 105.5 36.5% 38.4% 28.7% 1.34× 2.61
H2 under 106.5 35.1% 37.4% 31.2% 1.20× 2.67
H2 over 116.5 34.9% 35.6% 41.9% 0.85× 2.81
H2 over 115.5 33.3% 33.6% 44.6% 0.75× 2.97
H2 under 102.5 28.2% 27.8% 21.5% 1.29× 3.59
H2 over 118.5 25.3% 27.8% 36.4% 0.76× 3.59
H2 under 103.5 27.0% 27.5% 23.8% 1.16× 3.63
H2 over 119.5 26.8% 27.5% 33.6% 0.82× 3.63
H2 under 99.5 17.9% 18.5% 15.6% 1.19× 5.41
H2 over 123.5 17.8% 18.5% 23.1% 0.80× 5.41
H2 under 98.5 18.7% 18.2% 13.8% 1.31× 5.50
H2 over 122.5 16.5% 18.2% 25.6% 0.71× 5.50
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Toronto Raptors leading at half time 55.2% 56.9% 52.8% 1.08× 1.76
Orlando Magic leading at half time 41.3% 42.8% 44.1% 0.97× 2.34
Level at half time 3.4% 3.8% 3.1% 1.22× 26.41
Handicap 60
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Toronto Raptors +20.5 95.2% 97.4% 93.1% 1.05× 1.03
Toronto Raptors +18.5 93.6% 91.1% 91.5% 1.00× 1.10
Toronto Raptors +16.5 91.7% 91.1% 89.7% 1.02× 1.10
Toronto Raptors +14.5 89.4% 85.9% 87.0% 0.99× 1.16
Orlando Magic +20.5 87.2% 85.9% 89.1% 0.96× 1.16
Toronto Raptors +12.5 86.6% 85.9% 83.9% 1.02× 1.16
Toronto Raptors +10.5 83.4% 81.1% 80.3% 1.01× 1.23
Orlando Magic +18.5 84.0% 81.1% 86.4% 0.94× 1.23
Toronto Raptors +9.5 81.6% 81.1% 78.1% 1.04× 1.23
Orlando Magic +16.5 80.4% 81.1% 83.5% 0.97× 1.23
Toronto Raptors +8.5 79.7% 76.5% 75.7% 1.01× 1.31
Toronto Raptors +7.5 77.6% 76.5% 73.0% 1.05× 1.31
Orlando Magic +14.5 76.3% 76.5% 80.1% 0.95× 1.31
Toronto Raptors +6.5 75.5% 76.5% 70.6% 1.08× 1.31
Toronto Raptors +5.5 73.2% 71.6% 68.0% 1.05× 1.40
Orlando Magic +12.5 71.8% 71.6% 76.0% 0.94× 1.40
Toronto Raptors +4.5 70.9% 71.6% 65.7% 1.09× 1.40
Toronto Raptors +3.5 68.5% 66.7% 63.1% 1.06× 1.50
Orlando Magic +10.5 66.9% 66.7% 71.0% 0.94× 1.50
Toronto Raptors +2.5 65.9% 66.7% 60.5% 1.10× 1.50
Orlando Magic +9.5 64.3% 61.9% 68.7% 0.90× 1.62
Toronto Raptors +1.5 63.3% 61.9% 57.9% 1.07× 1.62
Orlando Magic +8.5 61.7% 61.9% 65.9% 0.94× 1.62
Orlando Magic +7.5 59.0% 57.1% 63.0% 0.91× 1.75
Toronto Raptors −1.5 57.9% 57.1% 53.7% 1.06× 1.75
Orlando Magic +6.5 56.2% 57.1% 60.0% 0.95× 1.75
Toronto Raptors −2.5 55.1% 57.1% 50.9% 1.12× 1.75
Orlando Magic +5.5 53.4% 52.4% 57.1% 0.92× 1.91
Toronto Raptors −3.5 52.2% 52.4% 48.4% 1.08× 1.91
Orlando Magic +4.5 50.6% 52.4% 54.1% 0.97× 1.91
Toronto Raptors −4.5 49.4% 47.6% 46.0% 1.04× 2.10
Orlando Magic +3.5 47.8% 47.6% 51.6% 0.92× 2.10
Toronto Raptors −5.5 46.6% 47.6% 42.9% 1.11× 2.10
Orlando Magic +2.5 44.9% 42.9% 49.1% 0.88× 2.33
Toronto Raptors −6.5 43.8% 42.9% 40.0% 1.07× 2.33
Orlando Magic +1.5 42.1% 42.9% 46.3% 0.93× 2.33
Toronto Raptors −7.5 41.0% 42.9% 37.0% 1.16× 2.33
Toronto Raptors −8.5 38.3% 38.1% 34.1% 1.12× 2.63
Orlando Magic −1.5 36.7% 38.1% 42.1% 0.90× 2.63
Toronto Raptors −9.5 35.7% 38.1% 31.3% 1.22× 2.63
Orlando Magic −2.5 34.1% 33.3% 39.5% 0.84× 3.01
Toronto Raptors −10.5 33.1% 33.3% 29.0% 1.15× 3.01
Orlando Magic −3.5 31.5% 33.3% 36.9% 0.90× 3.01
Orlando Magic −4.5 29.1% 28.4% 34.3% 0.83× 3.53
Toronto Raptors −12.5 28.2% 28.4% 24.0% 1.18× 3.53
Orlando Magic −5.5 26.8% 28.4% 32.0% 0.89× 3.53
Orlando Magic −6.5 24.5% 23.5% 29.4% 0.80× 4.25
Toronto Raptors −14.5 23.7% 23.5% 19.9% 1.19× 4.25
Orlando Magic −7.5 22.4% 23.5% 27.0% 0.87× 4.25
Orlando Magic −8.5 20.3% 23.5% 24.3% 0.97× 4.25
Orlando Magic −9.5 18.4% 18.9% 21.9% 0.86× 5.29
Toronto Raptors −16.5 19.6% 18.9% 16.5% 1.15× 5.29
Orlando Magic −10.5 16.6% 18.9% 19.7% 0.96× 5.30
Toronto Raptors −18.5 16.0% 18.9% 13.6% 1.39× 5.30
Orlando Magic −12.5 13.4% 14.1% 16.1% 0.87× 7.09
Toronto Raptors −20.5 12.8% 14.1% 10.9% 1.30× 7.09
Orlando Magic −14.5 10.6% 14.1% 13.0% 1.09× 7.09
Orlando Magic −16.5 8.3% 8.9% 10.3% 0.86× 11.25
Orlando Magic −18.5 6.4% 8.9% 8.5% 1.04× 11.25
Orlando Magic −20.5 4.8% 2.6% 6.9% 0.37× 38.72
Highest scoring half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1st half highest scoring 56.4% 52.6% 53.5% 0.98× 1.90
2nd half highest scoring 43.6% 47.4% 46.5% 1.02× 2.11
Highest scoring quarter 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q1 highest scoring 28.2% 27.4% 29.2% 0.94× 3.65
Q3 highest scoring 27.8% 27.4% 27.5% 1.00× 3.65
Q2 highest scoring 26.5% 27.4% 26.3% 1.04× 3.65
Q4 highest scoring 17.4% 18.3% 17.0% 1.08× 5.46
HT/FT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Toronto Raptors at HT / Toronto Raptors at FT 44.6% 41.0% 40.8% 1.01× 2.44
Orlando Magic at HT / Orlando Magic at FT 27.3% 29.6% 30.9% 0.96× 3.38
Orlando Magic at HT / Toronto Raptors at FT 14.1% 12.2% 13.3% 0.92× 8.17
Toronto Raptors at HT / Orlando Magic at FT 10.7% 12.2% 12.0% 1.02× 8.18
Level at HT / Toronto Raptors at FT 2.0% 2.1% 1.7% 1.22× 47.76
Level at HT / Orlando Magic at FT 1.4% 2.1% 1.4% 1.49× 47.77
Moneyline 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Toronto Raptors to win 60.6% 60.6% 55.7% 1.09× 1.65
Orlando Magic to win 39.4% 39.4% 44.3% 0.89× 2.54
Odd/Even 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Total points odd 51.4% 50.5% 51.0% 0.99× 1.98
Toronto Raptors even 50.0% 50.5% 49.7% 1.02× 1.98
Orlando Magic even 50.0% 50.5% 50.3% 1.00× 1.98
Toronto Raptors odd 50.0% 49.5% 50.3% 0.98× 2.02
Orlando Magic odd 50.0% 49.5% 49.7% 1.00× 2.02
Total points even 48.6% 49.5% 49.0% 1.01× 2.02
Overtime 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
No overtime 93.1% 94.0% 94.8% 0.99× 1.06
Match to go to overtime 6.9% 6.0% 5.2% 1.16× 16.65
Q1 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Toronto Raptors to win Q1 52.4% 52.6% 51.3% 1.02× 1.90
Orlando Magic to win Q1 42.9% 42.9% 44.1% 0.97× 2.33
Q1 tied 4.8% 4.2% 4.6% 0.90× 23.94
Q1 total 32
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q1 under 65.5 84.2% 83.2% 83.2% 1.00× 1.20
Q1 over 49.5 80.8% 83.2% 82.7% 1.01× 1.20
Q1 under 64.5 83.7% 82.8% 80.1% 1.03× 1.21
Q1 over 48.5 81.6% 82.8% 85.6% 0.97× 1.21
Q1 under 62.5 74.2% 73.1% 72.9% 1.00× 1.37
Q1 under 61.5 73.5% 72.7% 68.5% 1.06× 1.38
Q1 over 51.5 70.8% 72.7% 76.0% 0.96× 1.38
Q1 over 52.5 69.8% 69.3% 72.4% 0.96× 1.44
Q1 under 60.5 66.2% 69.2% 64.5% 1.07× 1.45
Q1 under 59.5 65.3% 67.6% 60.0% 1.13× 1.48
Q1 over 54.5 61.2% 62.3% 63.3% 0.98× 1.61
Q1 over 53.5 62.3% 61.7% 68.2% 0.90× 1.62
Q1 under 58.5 57.3% 59.2% 55.7% 1.06× 1.69
Q1 under 57.5 56.3% 58.6% 50.4% 1.16× 1.71
Q1 over 55.5 53.1% 52.7% 59.2% 0.89× 1.90
Q1 under 56.5 51.6% 52.7% 45.4% 1.16× 1.90
Q1 over 56.5 48.4% 47.3% 54.6% 0.87× 2.11
Q1 under 55.5 46.9% 47.3% 40.8% 1.16× 2.11
Q1 over 57.5 43.7% 41.4% 49.6% 0.83× 2.42
Q1 over 58.5 42.7% 40.8% 44.3% 0.92× 2.45
Q1 under 53.5 37.7% 38.3% 31.8% 1.21× 2.61
Q1 under 54.5 38.8% 37.7% 36.7% 1.03× 2.65
Q1 over 59.5 34.7% 32.4% 40.0% 0.81× 3.08
Q1 over 60.5 33.8% 30.8% 35.5% 0.87× 3.25
Q1 under 52.5 30.2% 30.7% 27.6% 1.11× 3.25
Q1 under 51.5 29.2% 27.3% 24.0% 1.14× 3.66
Q1 over 61.5 26.5% 27.3% 31.5% 0.87× 3.66
Q1 over 62.5 25.8% 26.9% 27.1% 0.99× 3.72
Q1 under 48.5 18.4% 17.2% 14.4% 1.19× 5.83
Q1 over 64.5 16.3% 17.2% 19.9% 0.86× 5.83
Q1 under 49.5 19.2% 16.8% 17.3% 0.97× 5.95
Q1 over 65.5 15.8% 16.8% 16.8% 1.00× 5.96
Q2 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Toronto Raptors to win Q2 52.3% 51.4% 49.3% 1.04× 1.95
Orlando Magic to win Q2 43.0% 43.9% 46.2% 0.95× 2.28
Q2 tied 4.7% 4.4% 4.5% 0.98× 22.88
Q2 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q2 under 64.5 84.4% 83.0% 80.9% 1.03× 1.21
Q2 over 48.5 80.6% 83.0% 84.7% 0.98× 1.21
Q2 under 61.5 74.5% 72.0% 70.4% 1.02× 1.39
Q2 over 51.5 69.5% 67.4% 74.2% 0.91× 1.48
Q2 under 59.5 66.4% 67.4% 61.9% 1.09× 1.49
Q2 over 53.5 60.9% 60.7% 65.8% 0.92× 1.65
Q2 under 57.5 57.6% 58.2% 52.7% 1.10× 1.72
Q2 under 56.5 52.9% 52.7% 48.3% 1.09× 1.90
Q2 over 55.5 51.7% 52.7% 56.3% 0.94× 1.90
Q2 under 55.5 48.3% 47.3% 43.7% 1.08× 2.11
Q2 over 56.5 47.1% 47.3% 51.7% 0.92× 2.11
Q2 over 57.5 42.4% 41.8% 47.3% 0.89× 2.39
Q2 under 53.5 39.1% 39.3% 34.2% 1.15× 2.55
Q2 over 59.5 33.6% 32.6% 38.1% 0.86× 3.06
Q2 under 51.5 30.5% 32.6% 25.8% 1.27× 3.06
Q2 over 61.5 25.5% 28.0% 29.6% 0.95× 3.57
Q2 under 48.5 19.4% 17.0% 15.3% 1.11× 5.88
Q2 over 64.5 15.6% 17.0% 19.1% 0.89× 5.89
Q3 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Toronto Raptors to win Q3 52.3% 52.7% 50.9% 1.04× 1.90
Orlando Magic to win Q3 43.0% 42.3% 44.3% 0.95× 2.37
Q3 tied 4.7% 4.3% 4.9% 0.88× 23.43
Q3 total 32
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q3 under 64.5 83.5% 82.3% 79.2% 1.04× 1.22
Q3 over 48.5 82.4% 82.3% 85.6% 0.96× 1.22
Q3 under 65.5 84.0% 82.2% 82.2% 1.00× 1.22
Q3 over 49.5 81.5% 82.2% 82.7% 0.99× 1.22
Q3 under 62.5 73.8% 72.5% 71.9% 1.01× 1.38
Q3 over 52.5 70.6% 72.5% 72.2% 1.00× 1.38
Q3 under 61.5 73.1% 71.8% 67.7% 1.06× 1.39
Q3 over 51.5 71.7% 71.8% 76.1% 0.94× 1.39
Q3 under 60.5 65.6% 66.8% 63.5% 1.05× 1.50
Q3 over 54.5 62.0% 62.6% 63.9% 0.98× 1.60
Q3 under 59.5 64.8% 62.0% 59.0% 1.05× 1.61
Q3 over 53.5 63.1% 62.0% 68.3% 0.91× 1.61
Q3 under 57.5 55.6% 58.4% 49.8% 1.17× 1.71
Q3 under 58.5 56.6% 57.8% 54.8% 1.06× 1.73
Q3 over 55.5 53.9% 52.3% 59.9% 0.87× 1.91
Q3 under 56.5 50.9% 52.3% 45.0% 1.16× 1.91
Q3 over 56.5 49.1% 47.7% 55.0% 0.87× 2.10
Q3 under 55.5 46.1% 47.7% 40.1% 1.19× 2.10
Q3 over 58.5 43.4% 42.2% 45.2% 0.93× 2.37
Q3 over 57.5 44.4% 41.6% 50.2% 0.83× 2.40
Q3 under 53.5 36.9% 38.1% 31.7% 1.20× 2.63
Q3 over 59.5 35.2% 38.0% 41.0% 0.93× 2.63
Q3 under 54.5 38.0% 37.4% 36.1% 1.04× 2.67
Q3 over 60.5 34.4% 33.2% 36.5% 0.91× 3.01
Q3 under 51.5 28.4% 28.2% 23.9% 1.18× 3.55
Q3 over 61.5 26.9% 28.2% 32.3% 0.87× 3.55
Q3 under 52.5 29.4% 27.5% 27.8% 0.99× 3.63
Q3 over 62.5 26.2% 27.5% 28.1% 0.98× 3.64
Q3 under 49.5 18.5% 17.8% 17.3% 1.03× 5.62
Q3 over 65.5 16.0% 17.8% 17.8% 1.00× 5.63
Q3 under 48.5 17.6% 17.7% 14.4% 1.23× 5.66
Q3 over 64.5 16.5% 17.7% 20.8% 0.85× 5.66
Q4 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Toronto Raptors to win Q4 52.2% 51.4% 48.3% 1.06× 1.95
Orlando Magic to win Q4 43.0% 43.1% 46.4% 0.93× 2.32
Q4 tied 4.9% 5.2% 5.3% 0.98× 19.28
Q4 total 32
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q4 over 45.5 82.6% 82.0% 84.6% 0.97× 1.22
Q4 under 61.5 81.8% 82.0% 77.5% 1.06× 1.22
Q4 under 62.5 82.4% 81.9% 80.4% 1.02× 1.22
Q4 over 46.5 81.7% 81.9% 81.7% 1.00× 1.22
Q4 under 59.5 72.2% 72.3% 70.2% 1.03× 1.38
Q4 over 49.5 71.2% 72.3% 72.3% 1.00× 1.38
Q4 over 48.5 72.3% 71.5% 75.5% 0.95× 1.40
Q4 under 58.5 71.3% 71.5% 66.2% 1.08× 1.40
Q4 under 57.5 64.0% 61.7% 61.9% 1.00× 1.62
Q4 over 51.5 62.9% 61.6% 64.7% 0.95× 1.62
Q4 over 50.5 64.1% 61.4% 68.5% 0.90× 1.63
Q4 under 56.5 63.0% 61.4% 57.2% 1.07× 1.63
Q4 over 52.5 55.2% 58.4% 60.4% 0.97× 1.71
Q4 under 55.5 55.2% 57.4% 52.9% 1.09× 1.74
Q4 under 54.5 54.0% 52.5% 48.6% 1.08× 1.91
Q4 over 53.5 50.6% 52.5% 55.7% 0.94× 1.91
Q4 under 53.5 49.4% 47.5% 44.3% 1.07× 2.11
Q4 over 54.5 46.0% 47.5% 51.4% 0.92× 2.11
Q4 over 55.5 44.9% 42.6% 47.1% 0.90× 2.35
Q4 under 52.5 44.8% 41.6% 39.6% 1.05× 2.40
Q4 over 56.5 37.0% 38.6% 42.8% 0.90× 2.59
Q4 under 50.5 35.9% 38.6% 31.5% 1.23× 2.59
Q4 under 51.5 37.1% 38.4% 35.3% 1.09× 2.61
Q4 over 57.5 36.0% 38.3% 38.1% 1.01× 2.61
Q4 over 58.5 28.7% 28.5% 33.8% 0.84× 3.51
Q4 under 48.5 27.7% 28.5% 24.5% 1.16× 3.51
Q4 under 49.5 28.8% 27.7% 27.7% 1.00× 3.61
Q4 over 59.5 27.8% 27.7% 29.8% 0.93× 3.61
Q4 under 46.5 18.3% 18.1% 18.3% 0.99× 5.53
Q4 over 62.5 17.6% 18.1% 19.6% 0.92× 5.53
Q4 over 61.5 18.2% 18.0% 22.5% 0.80× 5.56
Q4 under 45.5 17.4% 18.0% 15.4% 1.17× 5.56
Team total 70
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Toronto Raptors under 123.5 81.4% 80.7% 74.4% 1.08× 1.24
Orlando Magic under 119.5 81.4% 80.7% 70.3% 1.15× 1.24
Orlando Magic under 121.5 81.0% 80.3% 74.7% 1.07× 1.25
Toronto Raptors under 124.5 80.4% 80.3% 76.8% 1.05× 1.25
Toronto Raptors over 104.5 78.7% 78.3% 79.8% 0.98× 1.28
Orlando Magic over 101.5 78.2% 78.3% 82.0% 0.95× 1.28
Toronto Raptors over 103.5 78.8% 75.1% 82.1% 0.91× 1.33
Orlando Magic over 99.5 79.2% 75.1% 85.9% 0.87× 1.33
Orlando Magic under 118.5 73.5% 71.9% 67.4% 1.07× 1.39
Toronto Raptors under 121.5 72.9% 71.9% 69.6% 1.03× 1.39
Toronto Raptors over 107.5 70.8% 71.8% 72.7% 0.99× 1.39
Toronto Raptors under 120.5 73.8% 70.7% 66.3% 1.07× 1.41
Orlando Magic under 116.5 73.8% 70.7% 61.5% 1.15× 1.41
Toronto Raptors over 106.5 70.7% 70.7% 75.1% 0.94× 1.41
Orlando Magic over 102.5 71.1% 70.7% 79.7% 0.89× 1.41
Toronto Raptors under 119.5 67.1% 66.6% 63.5% 1.05× 1.50
Toronto Raptors under 118.5 68.0% 66.4% 60.3% 1.10× 1.51
Orlando Magic under 114.5 68.0% 66.4% 55.5% 1.20× 1.51
Toronto Raptors over 108.5 64.7% 61.2% 69.9% 0.88× 1.63
Orlando Magic over 104.5 65.0% 61.2% 75.0% 0.82× 1.63
Toronto Raptors under 116.5 61.8% 61.2% 54.7% 1.12× 1.63
Orlando Magic under 112.5 61.7% 61.2% 48.5% 1.26× 1.63
Toronto Raptors over 109.5 64.9% 61.2% 67.0% 0.91× 1.63
Toronto Raptors under 117.5 60.9% 61.2% 57.8% 1.06× 1.64
Toronto Raptors over 111.5 58.6% 57.9% 61.1% 0.95× 1.73
Toronto Raptors over 110.5 58.2% 57.1% 64.1% 0.89× 1.75
Orlando Magic over 106.5 58.5% 57.1% 68.9% 0.83× 1.75
Toronto Raptors under 114.5 55.2% 57.1% 48.6% 1.17× 1.75
Orlando Magic under 110.5 55.0% 57.1% 42.1% 1.35× 1.75
Toronto Raptors over 112.5 51.5% 52.3% 57.7% 0.91× 1.91
Orlando Magic under 109.5 51.6% 52.3% 39.1% 1.34× 1.91
Toronto Raptors under 113.5 51.8% 52.3% 45.7% 1.14× 1.91
Orlando Magic over 108.5 51.8% 52.3% 64.0% 0.82× 1.91
Toronto Raptors under 115.5 54.5% 52.2% 51.6% 1.01× 1.91
Orlando Magic under 111.5 52.0% 52.2% 45.4% 1.15× 1.91
Orlando Magic over 111.5 48.0% 47.8% 54.6% 0.88× 2.09
Toronto Raptors over 115.5 45.5% 47.8% 48.4% 0.99× 2.09
Toronto Raptors under 112.5 48.5% 47.7% 42.3% 1.13× 2.09
Orlando Magic over 109.5 48.4% 47.7% 60.9% 0.78× 2.09
Toronto Raptors over 113.5 48.2% 47.7% 54.3% 0.88× 2.09
Orlando Magic under 108.5 48.2% 47.7% 36.0% 1.33× 2.09
Toronto Raptors over 114.5 44.8% 42.9% 51.4% 0.84× 2.33
Orlando Magic over 110.5 45.0% 42.9% 57.9% 0.74× 2.33
Toronto Raptors under 110.5 41.8% 42.9% 35.9% 1.19× 2.33
Orlando Magic under 106.5 41.5% 42.9% 31.1% 1.38× 2.33
Toronto Raptors under 111.5 41.4% 42.1% 38.9% 1.08× 2.38
Toronto Raptors over 117.5 39.1% 38.8% 42.2% 0.92× 2.58
Toronto Raptors under 109.5 35.1% 38.8% 33.0% 1.18× 2.58
Toronto Raptors over 116.5 38.2% 38.8% 45.3% 0.86× 2.58
Orlando Magic over 112.5 38.3% 38.8% 51.5% 0.75× 2.58
Toronto Raptors under 108.5 35.3% 38.8% 30.1% 1.29× 2.58
Orlando Magic under 104.5 35.0% 38.8% 25.0% 1.55× 2.58
Toronto Raptors over 118.5 32.0% 33.6% 39.7% 0.85× 2.98
Orlando Magic over 114.5 32.0% 33.6% 44.5% 0.76× 2.98
Toronto Raptors over 119.5 32.9% 33.4% 36.5% 0.91× 3.00
Toronto Raptors under 106.5 29.3% 29.3% 24.9% 1.18× 3.42
Orlando Magic under 102.5 28.9% 29.3% 20.3% 1.44× 3.42
Toronto Raptors over 120.5 26.2% 29.3% 33.7% 0.87× 3.42
Orlando Magic over 116.5 26.2% 29.3% 38.5% 0.76× 3.42
Toronto Raptors under 107.5 29.2% 28.2% 27.3% 1.03× 3.55
Toronto Raptors over 121.5 27.1% 28.1% 30.4% 0.93× 3.55
Orlando Magic over 118.5 26.5% 28.1% 32.6% 0.86× 3.55
Toronto Raptors under 103.5 21.2% 24.9% 17.9% 1.39× 4.02
Orlando Magic under 99.5 20.8% 24.9% 14.1% 1.76× 4.02
Orlando Magic under 101.5 21.8% 21.7% 18.0% 1.20× 4.60
Toronto Raptors under 104.5 21.3% 21.7% 20.2% 1.07× 4.60
Toronto Raptors over 124.5 19.6% 19.7% 23.2% 0.85× 5.07
Orlando Magic over 121.5 19.0% 19.7% 25.3% 0.78× 5.07
Toronto Raptors over 123.5 18.6% 19.3% 25.6% 0.75× 5.18
Orlando Magic over 119.5 18.6% 19.3% 29.7% 0.65× 5.18
Total points 52
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 245.5 points 86.2% 85.5% 80.9% 1.06× 1.17
Over 205.5 points 85.1% 85.5% 87.8% 0.97× 1.17
Under 242.5 points 86.8% 85.0% 76.8% 1.11× 1.18
Over 202.5 points 85.5% 85.0% 90.8% 0.94× 1.18
Under 237.5 points 80.1% 80.6% 69.3% 1.16× 1.24
Under 240.5 points 79.5% 78.1% 74.0% 1.06× 1.28
Over 210.5 points 78.1% 78.1% 81.4% 0.96× 1.28
Over 207.5 points 78.4% 75.6% 85.5% 0.88× 1.32
Under 235.5 points 71.1% 71.0% 65.3% 1.09× 1.41
Under 232.5 points 71.6% 70.8% 59.4% 1.19× 1.41
Over 212.5 points 69.7% 65.9% 77.8% 0.85× 1.52
Under 229.5 points 65.9% 65.9% 53.3% 1.24× 1.52
Over 218.5 points 63.7% 61.8% 67.8% 0.91× 1.62
Under 230.5 points 61.4% 61.7% 55.4% 1.12× 1.62
Over 215.5 points 63.7% 61.5% 73.4% 0.84× 1.63
Under 227.5 points 61.8% 61.5% 49.4% 1.25× 1.63
Over 217.5 points 59.6% 56.5% 69.6% 0.81× 1.77
Under 225.5 points 57.6% 56.5% 45.3% 1.25× 1.77
Over 219.5 points 55.3% 56.5% 66.1% 0.85× 1.77
Over 220.5 points 59.6% 56.0% 64.2% 0.87× 1.79
Under 228.5 points 57.3% 56.0% 51.3% 1.09× 1.79
Under 223.5 points 53.3% 52.3% 41.7% 1.25× 1.91
Over 221.5 points 51.0% 52.3% 62.2% 0.84× 1.91
Under 222.5 points 51.1% 52.3% 39.6% 1.32× 1.91
Under 226.5 points 53.1% 52.2% 47.3% 1.11× 1.92
Over 224.5 points 51.2% 52.2% 56.5% 0.92× 1.92
Under 224.5 points 48.8% 47.8% 43.5% 1.10× 2.09
Over 226.5 points 46.9% 47.8% 52.7% 0.91× 2.09
Under 221.5 points 49.0% 47.7% 37.8% 1.26× 2.10
Over 222.5 points 48.9% 47.7% 60.4% 0.79× 2.10
Over 223.5 points 46.7% 47.7% 58.3% 0.82× 2.10
Over 228.5 points 42.7% 44.0% 48.7% 0.90× 2.27
Under 220.5 points 40.4% 44.0% 35.8% 1.23× 2.27
Under 219.5 points 44.7% 43.5% 33.9% 1.28× 2.30
Over 225.5 points 42.4% 43.5% 54.7% 0.79× 2.30
Under 217.5 points 40.4% 43.5% 30.4% 1.43× 2.30
Over 227.5 points 38.2% 38.5% 50.6% 0.76× 2.60
Under 215.5 points 36.3% 38.5% 26.6% 1.45× 2.60
Over 230.5 points 38.6% 38.3% 44.6% 0.86× 2.61
Under 218.5 points 36.3% 38.2% 32.2% 1.19× 2.61
Over 229.5 points 34.1% 34.1% 46.7% 0.73× 2.93
Under 212.5 points 30.3% 34.1% 22.2% 1.54× 2.93
Over 232.5 points 28.4% 29.2% 40.6% 0.72× 3.43
Over 235.5 points 28.9% 29.0% 34.7% 0.83× 3.45
Under 207.5 points 21.6% 24.4% 14.5% 1.68× 4.10
Under 210.5 points 21.9% 21.9% 18.6% 1.18× 4.57
Over 240.5 points 20.5% 21.9% 26.0% 0.84× 4.57
Over 237.5 points 19.9% 19.4% 30.7% 0.63× 5.15
Under 202.5 points 14.5% 15.0% 9.2% 1.63× 6.68
Over 242.5 points 13.2% 15.0% 23.2% 0.65× 6.69
Under 205.5 points 14.9% 14.5% 12.2% 1.19× 6.88
Over 245.5 points 13.8% 14.5% 19.1% 0.76× 6.88
Win both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Toronto Raptors to win both halves 28.3% 27.2% 25.2% 1.08× 3.68
Orlando Magic to win both halves 15.1% 18.8% 17.8% 1.06× 5.31
Winning margin 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Toronto Raptors by 1-5 14.0% 12.3% 12.8% 0.96× 8.11
Toronto Raptors by 6-10 13.5% 12.3% 13.9% 0.88× 8.11
Orlando Magic by 1-5 12.6% 12.3% 12.3% 1.01× 8.11
Toronto Raptors by 11-15 11.5% 12.3% 10.8% 1.14× 8.11
Orlando Magic by 6-10 10.1% 12.3% 12.3% 1.00× 8.11
Toronto Raptors by 16-20 8.8% 7.5% 7.3% 1.02× 13.40
Orlando Magic by 11-15 7.2% 7.5% 8.0% 0.93× 13.40
Toronto Raptors by 26+ 6.9% 7.5% 6.2% 1.21× 13.40
Toronto Raptors by 21-25 5.9% 7.5% 4.7% 1.58× 13.40
Orlando Magic by 16-20 4.6% 2.0% 4.9% 0.42× 49.29
Orlando Magic by 21-25 2.6% 2.0% 3.0% 0.67× 49.31
Orlando Magic by 26+ 2.2% 2.0% 3.9% 0.53× 49.31
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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