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UNLV Lady Rebels v Cincinnati Bearcats — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 21 November 2026 · NCAAW · 2027

NCAAW results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

nba-normal No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.
UNLV Lady Rebels win
71.6%
Draw
0.0%
Cincinnati Bearcats win
28.4%

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
nba-normal 75.33–69.12 75-69 0% 50% 0%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

Century marks 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
UNLV Lady Rebels to score 100+ 0.6% 0.4% 1.8% 0.20× 283.24
UNLV Lady Rebels to score 110+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.6% 0.64× 283.35
UNLV Lady Rebels to score 120+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 2.91× 283.36
UNLV Lady Rebels to score 130+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 7.58× 283.36
Cincinnati Bearcats to score 100+ 0.1% 0.4% 0.5% 0.72× 283.35
Cincinnati Bearcats to score 110+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 4.74× 283.36
Cincinnati Bearcats to score 120+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 18.95× 283.36
Cincinnati Bearcats to score 130+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 37.89× 283.36
Both sides to score 100+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 6.32× 283.36
H1 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
UNLV Lady Rebels to win H1 61.4% 62.2% 56.4% 1.10× 1.61
Cincinnati Bearcats to win H1 34.3% 33.1% 39.9% 0.83× 3.02
H1 tied 4.2% 3.9% 3.7% 1.05× 25.86
H1 total 22
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H1 under 81.5 89.1% 87.7% 95.5% 0.92× 1.14
H1 over 57.5 87.0% 87.7% 64.8% 1.35× 1.14
H1 under 77.5 79.9% 77.4% 91.6% 0.85× 1.29
H1 over 61.5 76.8% 77.4% 50.2% 1.54× 1.29
H1 under 74.5 70.7% 73.5% 87.2% 0.84× 1.36
H1 over 64.5 66.9% 67.4% 39.3% 1.72× 1.48
H1 under 72.5 63.6% 62.7% 83.6% 0.75× 1.59
H1 over 66.5 59.5% 58.2% 32.9% 1.77× 1.72
H1 under 70.5 56.0% 58.2% 78.9% 0.74× 1.72
H1 over 68.5 51.8% 52.6% 26.5% 1.99× 1.90
H1 under 69.5 52.1% 52.6% 76.2% 0.69× 1.90
H1 under 68.5 48.2% 47.4% 73.5% 0.64× 2.11
H1 over 69.5 47.9% 47.4% 23.8% 1.99× 2.11
H1 over 70.5 44.0% 41.8% 21.1% 1.98× 2.39
H1 under 66.5 40.5% 41.8% 67.1% 0.62× 2.39
H1 over 72.5 36.4% 37.3% 16.4% 2.27× 2.68
H1 under 64.5 33.1% 32.6% 60.7% 0.54× 3.07
H1 over 74.5 29.3% 26.5% 12.8% 2.07× 3.77
H1 under 61.5 23.2% 22.6% 49.8% 0.45× 4.43
H1 over 77.5 20.1% 22.6% 8.4% 2.69× 4.43
H1 under 57.5 13.0% 12.3% 35.2% 0.35× 8.14
H1 over 81.5 10.9% 12.3% 4.5% 2.74× 8.14
H2 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
UNLV Lady Rebels to win H2 62.3% 58.8% 56.0% 1.05× 1.70
Cincinnati Bearcats to win H2 33.7% 36.3% 40.6% 0.90× 2.75
H2 tied 4.1% 3.9% 3.4% 1.16× 25.35
H2 total 22
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H2 over 63.5 87.0% 85.2% 65.3% 1.30× 1.17
H2 under 87.5 86.9% 85.2% 93.2% 0.91× 1.17
H2 over 67.5 77.3% 75.8% 52.1% 1.45× 1.32
H2 under 83.5 77.2% 75.8% 88.9% 0.85× 1.32
H2 over 70.5 68.1% 66.4% 42.2% 1.57× 1.51
H2 under 80.5 67.9% 66.4% 84.0% 0.79× 1.51
H2 over 72.5 61.1% 61.6% 36.0% 1.71× 1.62
H2 under 78.5 61.0% 61.6% 80.1% 0.77× 1.62
H2 over 74.5 53.8% 52.4% 30.1% 1.74× 1.91
H2 under 76.5 53.7% 52.4% 75.6% 0.69× 1.91
H2 over 75.5 50.1% 52.4% 27.0% 1.94× 1.91
H2 under 75.5 49.9% 47.6% 73.0% 0.65× 2.10
H2 under 74.5 46.2% 47.6% 69.9% 0.68× 2.10
H2 over 76.5 46.3% 47.6% 24.4% 1.95× 2.10
H2 over 78.5 39.0% 38.4% 19.9% 1.93× 2.61
H2 under 72.5 38.9% 38.4% 64.1% 0.60× 2.61
H2 under 70.5 31.9% 33.6% 57.8% 0.58× 2.97
H2 over 80.5 32.1% 33.6% 16.0% 2.11× 2.97
H2 under 67.5 22.7% 24.2% 47.9% 0.51× 4.13
H2 over 83.5 22.8% 24.2% 11.1% 2.18× 4.13
H2 under 63.5 13.0% 14.8% 34.7% 0.43× 6.76
H2 over 87.5 13.1% 14.8% 6.8% 2.18× 6.76
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
UNLV Lady Rebels leading at half time 61.4% 62.5% 56.4% 1.11× 1.60
Cincinnati Bearcats leading at half time 34.3% 32.8% 39.9% 0.82× 3.05
Level at half time 4.2% 3.8% 3.7% 1.03× 26.40
Handicap 60
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
UNLV Lady Rebels +20.5 99.1% 97.4% 92.7% 1.05× 1.03
UNLV Lady Rebels +14.5 96.6% 97.4% 86.7% 1.12× 1.03
UNLV Lady Rebels +16.5 97.8% 97.4% 89.1% 1.09× 1.03
UNLV Lady Rebels +18.5 98.6% 97.4% 91.1% 1.07× 1.03
UNLV Lady Rebels +12.5 95.0% 97.4% 83.8% 1.16× 1.03
UNLV Lady Rebels +10.5 92.9% 91.1% 80.4% 1.13× 1.10
UNLV Lady Rebels +8.5 90.2% 91.1% 76.5% 1.19× 1.10
UNLV Lady Rebels +9.5 91.6% 91.1% 78.7% 1.16× 1.10
Cincinnati Bearcats +20.5 89.5% 85.9% 82.0% 1.05× 1.16
UNLV Lady Rebels +7.5 88.5% 85.9% 74.5% 1.15× 1.16
UNLV Lady Rebels +6.5 86.7% 85.9% 72.3% 1.19× 1.16
Cincinnati Bearcats +18.5 85.9% 85.9% 79.3% 1.08× 1.16
UNLV Lady Rebels +5.5 84.6% 81.1% 70.1% 1.16× 1.23
UNLV Lady Rebels +4.5 82.4% 81.1% 67.8% 1.20× 1.23
Cincinnati Bearcats +16.5 81.5% 81.1% 75.7% 1.07× 1.23
UNLV Lady Rebels +3.5 80.0% 76.5% 65.7% 1.16× 1.31
UNLV Lady Rebels +2.5 77.4% 76.5% 63.3% 1.21× 1.31
Cincinnati Bearcats +14.5 76.2% 76.5% 72.1% 1.06× 1.31
UNLV Lady Rebels +1.5 74.6% 71.6% 61.2% 1.17× 1.40
Cincinnati Bearcats +12.5 70.3% 71.6% 67.9% 1.06× 1.40
UNLV Lady Rebels −1.5 68.3% 66.7% 58.7% 1.14× 1.50
UNLV Lady Rebels −2.5 64.9% 61.9% 56.7% 1.09× 1.62
Cincinnati Bearcats +10.5 63.8% 61.9% 63.2% 0.98× 1.62
UNLV Lady Rebels −3.5 61.4% 61.9% 54.2% 1.14× 1.62
Cincinnati Bearcats +9.5 60.3% 61.9% 60.7% 1.02× 1.62
UNLV Lady Rebels −4.5 57.8% 57.1% 52.2% 1.09× 1.75
Cincinnati Bearcats +8.5 56.8% 57.1% 58.0% 0.98× 1.75
UNLV Lady Rebels −5.5 54.2% 52.4% 49.7% 1.05× 1.91
Cincinnati Bearcats +7.5 53.2% 52.4% 55.2% 0.95× 1.91
UNLV Lady Rebels −6.5 50.5% 52.4% 47.6% 1.10× 1.91
Cincinnati Bearcats +6.5 49.5% 47.6% 52.4% 0.91× 2.10
Cincinnati Bearcats +5.5 45.8% 47.6% 50.3% 0.95× 2.10
UNLV Lady Rebels −7.5 46.9% 47.6% 44.8% 1.06× 2.10
UNLV Lady Rebels −8.5 43.2% 42.9% 42.0% 1.02× 2.33
Cincinnati Bearcats +4.5 42.2% 42.9% 47.8% 0.90× 2.33
UNLV Lady Rebels −9.5 39.7% 38.1% 39.3% 0.97× 2.63
Cincinnati Bearcats +3.5 38.6% 38.1% 45.8% 0.83× 2.63
UNLV Lady Rebels −10.5 36.2% 38.1% 36.8% 1.03× 2.63
Cincinnati Bearcats +2.5 35.1% 38.1% 43.3% 0.88× 2.63
Cincinnati Bearcats +1.5 31.7% 33.3% 41.3% 0.81× 3.01
UNLV Lady Rebels −12.5 29.7% 28.4% 32.1% 0.88× 3.53
Cincinnati Bearcats −1.5 25.4% 28.4% 38.8% 0.73× 3.53
UNLV Lady Rebels −14.5 23.8% 23.5% 27.9% 0.84× 4.25
Cincinnati Bearcats −2.5 22.6% 23.5% 36.7% 0.64× 4.25
Cincinnati Bearcats −3.5 20.0% 23.5% 34.3% 0.69× 4.25
UNLV Lady Rebels −16.5 18.6% 18.9% 24.3% 0.78× 5.29
Cincinnati Bearcats −4.5 17.6% 18.9% 32.2% 0.59× 5.29
Cincinnati Bearcats −5.5 15.4% 18.9% 29.9% 0.63× 5.30
Cincinnati Bearcats −6.5 13.3% 14.1% 27.7% 0.51× 7.09
UNLV Lady Rebels −18.5 14.1% 14.1% 20.7% 0.68× 7.09
UNLV Lady Rebels −20.5 10.5% 14.1% 18.0% 0.78× 7.09
Cincinnati Bearcats −7.5 11.5% 14.1% 25.5% 0.55× 7.09
Cincinnati Bearcats −8.5 9.8% 8.9% 23.5% 0.38× 11.25
Cincinnati Bearcats −9.5 8.4% 8.9% 21.3% 0.42× 11.25
Cincinnati Bearcats −10.5 7.1% 8.9% 19.6% 0.45× 11.25
Cincinnati Bearcats −12.5 5.0% 2.6% 16.2% 0.16× 38.72
Cincinnati Bearcats −20.5 0.9% 2.6% 7.3% 0.35× 38.74
Cincinnati Bearcats −14.5 3.4% 2.6% 13.3% 0.19× 38.73
Cincinnati Bearcats −16.5 2.2% 2.6% 10.9% 0.24× 38.73
Cincinnati Bearcats −18.5 1.4% 2.6% 8.9% 0.29× 38.73
Highest scoring half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 74.0% 67.1% 66.7% 1.01× 1.49
1st half highest scoring 26.0% 32.9% 33.3% 0.99× 3.04
Highest scoring quarter 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q3 highest scoring 33.4% 31.9% 31.3% 1.02× 3.14
Q4 highest scoring 35.2% 28.6% 31.2% 0.92× 3.50
Q2 highest scoring 14.9% 18.4% 17.9% 1.03× 5.45
Q1 highest scoring 16.5% 18.3% 19.6% 0.94× 5.46
HT/FT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
UNLV Lady Rebels at HT / UNLV Lady Rebels at FT 53.0% 51.1% 48.3% 1.06× 1.96
Cincinnati Bearcats at HT / Cincinnati Bearcats at FT 18.6% 15.5% 30.1% 0.51× 6.47
Cincinnati Bearcats at HT / UNLV Lady Rebels at FT 15.7% 15.4% 9.8% 1.58× 6.47
UNLV Lady Rebels at HT / Cincinnati Bearcats at FT 8.4% 8.3% 8.2% 1.01× 12.08
Level at HT / UNLV Lady Rebels at FT 2.9% 2.1% 1.9% 1.09× 47.74
Level at HT / Cincinnati Bearcats at FT 1.4% 2.1% 1.8% 1.20× 47.77
Moneyline 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
UNLV Lady Rebels to win 71.6% 68.7% 59.9% 1.15× 1.46
Cincinnati Bearcats to win 28.4% 31.3% 40.1% 0.78× 3.20
Odd/Even 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Total points odd 51.6% 50.5% 51.5% 0.98× 1.98
UNLV Lady Rebels even 50.0% 50.5% 49.4% 1.02× 1.98
Cincinnati Bearcats even 50.0% 50.5% 50.1% 1.01× 1.98
UNLV Lady Rebels odd 50.0% 49.5% 50.6% 0.98× 2.02
Cincinnati Bearcats odd 50.0% 49.5% 49.9% 0.99× 2.02
Total points even 48.4% 49.5% 48.5% 1.02× 2.02
Overtime 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
No overtime 94.5% 94.0% 95.6% 0.98× 1.06
Match to go to overtime 5.5% 6.0% 4.4% 1.35× 16.66
Q1 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
UNLV Lady Rebels to win Q1 56.3% 57.3% 54.7% 1.05× 1.75
Cincinnati Bearcats to win Q1 37.7% 38.2% 40.4% 0.95× 2.62
Q1 tied 5.9% 5.5% 4.9% 1.11× 18.32
Q1 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q1 over 26.5 88.5% 87.4% 72.9% 1.20× 1.14
Q1 under 42.5 87.6% 87.4% 93.6% 0.93× 1.14
Q1 over 29.5 77.6% 76.9% 56.9% 1.35× 1.30
Q1 under 39.5 76.2% 76.9% 87.5% 0.88× 1.30
Q1 over 31.5 67.9% 67.6% 46.0% 1.47× 1.48
Q1 under 37.5 66.2% 67.6% 81.6% 0.83× 1.48
Q1 over 33.5 56.8% 58.6% 36.0% 1.63× 1.71
Q1 under 35.5 54.9% 52.7% 73.2% 0.72× 1.90
Q1 over 34.5 50.9% 52.7% 31.5% 1.67× 1.90
Q1 under 34.5 49.1% 47.3% 68.5% 0.69× 2.11
Q1 over 35.5 45.1% 47.3% 26.8% 1.76× 2.11
Q1 under 33.5 43.2% 41.4% 64.0% 0.65× 2.42
Q1 over 37.5 33.8% 32.4% 18.4% 1.76× 3.08
Q1 under 31.5 32.1% 32.4% 54.0% 0.60× 3.08
Q1 over 39.5 23.8% 23.1% 12.5% 1.84× 4.33
Q1 under 29.5 22.4% 23.1% 43.1% 0.54× 4.33
Q1 over 42.5 12.4% 12.6% 6.4% 1.98× 7.95
Q1 under 26.5 11.5% 12.6% 27.1% 0.46× 7.95
Q2 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
UNLV Lady Rebels to win Q2 56.1% 59.4% 52.9% 1.12× 1.69
Cincinnati Bearcats to win Q2 38.0% 35.8% 41.5% 0.86× 2.80
Q2 tied 5.8% 6.1% 5.7% 1.07× 16.49
Q2 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q2 under 42.5 88.6% 87.3% 94.3% 0.93× 1.15
Q2 over 26.5 87.5% 87.3% 71.6% 1.22× 1.15
Q2 under 39.5 77.8% 76.8% 88.4% 0.87× 1.30
Q2 over 29.5 76.0% 76.8% 55.8% 1.38× 1.30
Q2 under 37.5 68.1% 67.4% 82.3% 0.82× 1.49
Q2 over 31.5 66.0% 67.4% 44.3% 1.52× 1.49
Q2 under 35.5 57.0% 58.2% 74.6% 0.78× 1.72
Q2 over 33.5 54.7% 52.7% 34.4% 1.53× 1.90
Q2 under 34.5 51.2% 52.7% 70.1% 0.75× 1.90
Q2 over 34.5 48.8% 47.3% 29.9% 1.58× 2.11
Q2 under 33.5 45.3% 47.3% 65.6% 0.72× 2.11
Q2 over 35.5 43.0% 41.8% 25.4% 1.65× 2.39
Q2 under 31.5 34.0% 32.6% 55.7% 0.59× 3.06
Q2 over 37.5 31.9% 32.6% 17.7% 1.85× 3.06
Q2 under 29.5 24.0% 23.2% 44.2% 0.53× 4.31
Q2 over 39.5 22.2% 23.2% 11.6% 2.00× 4.31
Q2 under 26.5 12.5% 12.7% 28.4% 0.45× 7.89
Q2 over 42.5 11.4% 12.7% 5.7% 2.23× 7.90
Q3 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
UNLV Lady Rebels to win Q3 57.0% 56.8% 53.3% 1.07× 1.76
Cincinnati Bearcats to win Q3 37.3% 38.8% 41.8% 0.93× 2.58
Q3 tied 5.8% 5.3% 4.9% 1.07× 18.97
Q3 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q3 over 29.5 88.1% 87.2% 71.8% 1.21× 1.15
Q3 under 45.5 86.7% 87.2% 93.8% 0.93× 1.15
Q3 over 32.5 77.3% 77.3% 56.1% 1.38× 1.29
Q3 under 42.5 75.3% 77.3% 87.8% 0.88× 1.29
Q3 over 34.5 67.8% 67.8% 45.4% 1.49× 1.48
Q3 under 40.5 65.5% 67.8% 81.9% 0.83× 1.48
Q3 over 36.5 57.0% 58.4% 35.4% 1.65× 1.71
Q3 under 38.5 54.4% 52.3% 73.9% 0.71× 1.91
Q3 over 37.5 51.3% 52.3% 30.3% 1.73× 1.91
Q3 under 37.5 48.7% 47.7% 69.7% 0.68× 2.10
Q3 over 38.5 45.6% 47.7% 26.1% 1.83× 2.10
Q3 under 36.5 43.0% 41.6% 64.6% 0.64× 2.40
Q3 over 40.5 34.5% 32.2% 18.1% 1.78× 3.10
Q3 under 34.5 32.2% 32.2% 54.6% 0.59× 3.10
Q3 over 42.5 24.7% 22.7% 12.2% 1.87× 4.40
Q3 under 32.5 22.7% 22.7% 43.9% 0.52× 4.40
Q3 over 45.5 13.3% 12.8% 6.2% 2.06× 7.83
Q3 under 29.5 11.9% 12.8% 28.2% 0.45× 7.83
Q4 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
UNLV Lady Rebels to win Q4 56.8% 52.0% 52.8% 0.99× 1.92
Cincinnati Bearcats to win Q4 37.5% 42.4% 41.5% 1.02× 2.36
Q4 tied 5.6% 5.8% 5.7% 1.02× 17.25
Q4 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q4 under 46.5 88.1% 85.6% 93.9% 0.91× 1.17
Q4 over 30.5 83.8% 82.0% 66.3% 1.24× 1.22
Q4 under 43.5 78.0% 76.9% 88.6% 0.87× 1.30
Q4 over 33.5 72.0% 71.5% 50.4% 1.42× 1.40
Q4 under 41.5 69.2% 67.4% 83.6% 0.81× 1.48
Q4 over 35.5 62.2% 61.4% 40.6% 1.51× 1.63
Q4 under 39.5 59.1% 58.4% 77.0% 0.76× 1.71
Q4 under 38.5 53.8% 52.5% 73.1% 0.72× 1.91
Q4 over 37.5 51.6% 52.5% 31.2% 1.68× 1.91
Q4 under 37.5 48.4% 47.5% 68.8% 0.69× 2.11
Q4 over 38.5 46.2% 47.5% 26.9% 1.77× 2.11
Q4 over 39.5 40.9% 41.6% 23.0% 1.81× 2.40
Q4 under 35.5 37.8% 38.6% 59.4% 0.65× 2.59
Q4 over 41.5 30.8% 32.6% 16.4% 1.99× 3.07
Q4 under 33.5 28.0% 28.5% 49.6% 0.57× 3.51
Q4 over 43.5 22.0% 23.1% 11.4% 2.02× 4.33
Q4 under 30.5 16.2% 18.0% 33.7% 0.53× 5.56
Q4 over 46.5 11.9% 14.4% 6.1% 2.36× 6.95
Team total 44
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cincinnati Bearcats under 79.5 86.9% 83.9% 89.7% 0.94× 1.19
UNLV Lady Rebels over 65.5 85.0% 83.9% 55.3% 1.52× 1.19
UNLV Lady Rebels under 85.5 85.3% 83.9% 90.2% 0.93× 1.19
Cincinnati Bearcats over 59.5 84.7% 80.7% 58.8% 1.37× 1.24
Cincinnati Bearcats under 76.5 78.9% 75.1% 85.8% 0.88× 1.33
UNLV Lady Rebels over 68.5 76.6% 75.1% 45.6% 1.65× 1.33
UNLV Lady Rebels under 82.5 76.9% 75.1% 86.2% 0.87× 1.33
Cincinnati Bearcats over 62.5 75.8% 75.1% 49.0% 1.53× 1.33
Cincinnati Bearcats under 74.5 72.2% 70.7% 82.3% 0.86× 1.41
UNLV Lady Rebels under 80.5 70.1% 70.7% 82.9% 0.85× 1.41
UNLV Lady Rebels over 70.5 69.8% 66.4% 39.7% 1.67× 1.51
Cincinnati Bearcats over 64.5 68.6% 66.4% 43.2% 1.54× 1.51
Cincinnati Bearcats under 72.5 64.6% 61.2% 78.2% 0.78× 1.63
UNLV Lady Rebels over 72.5 62.1% 61.2% 34.3% 1.78× 1.63
UNLV Lady Rebels under 78.5 62.5% 61.2% 79.4% 0.77× 1.63
Cincinnati Bearcats over 66.5 60.6% 61.2% 37.3% 1.64× 1.63
Cincinnati Bearcats under 70.5 56.3% 57.1% 73.7% 0.77× 1.75
UNLV Lady Rebels over 74.5 54.0% 52.3% 29.3% 1.79× 1.91
UNLV Lady Rebels under 76.5 54.3% 52.3% 75.4% 0.69× 1.91
Cincinnati Bearcats over 68.5 52.2% 52.3% 31.4% 1.66× 1.91
Cincinnati Bearcats under 69.5 52.1% 52.3% 71.2% 0.73× 1.91
UNLV Lady Rebels under 75.5 50.2% 52.3% 73.2% 0.71× 1.91
UNLV Lady Rebels over 75.5 49.8% 47.7% 26.8% 1.78× 2.09
Cincinnati Bearcats under 68.5 47.8% 47.7% 68.6% 0.70× 2.09
Cincinnati Bearcats over 69.5 47.9% 47.7% 28.8% 1.66× 2.09
UNLV Lady Rebels under 74.5 46.0% 47.7% 70.7% 0.67× 2.09
UNLV Lady Rebels over 76.5 45.7% 47.7% 24.6% 1.94× 2.09
Cincinnati Bearcats over 70.5 43.7% 42.9% 26.3% 1.63× 2.33
Cincinnati Bearcats under 66.5 39.4% 38.8% 62.7% 0.62× 2.58
UNLV Lady Rebels under 72.5 37.9% 38.8% 65.7% 0.59× 2.58
UNLV Lady Rebels over 78.5 37.5% 38.8% 20.6% 1.88× 2.58
Cincinnati Bearcats over 72.5 35.4% 38.8% 21.8% 1.78× 2.58
Cincinnati Bearcats under 64.5 31.4% 33.6% 56.9% 0.59× 2.98
UNLV Lady Rebels under 70.5 30.2% 33.6% 60.3% 0.56× 2.98
UNLV Lady Rebels over 80.5 29.9% 29.3% 17.1% 1.72× 3.42
Cincinnati Bearcats over 74.5 27.8% 29.3% 17.7% 1.65× 3.42
Cincinnati Bearcats under 62.5 24.2% 24.9% 51.0% 0.49× 4.02
UNLV Lady Rebels under 68.5 23.4% 24.9% 54.4% 0.46× 4.02
UNLV Lady Rebels over 82.5 23.1% 24.9% 13.8% 1.81× 4.02
Cincinnati Bearcats over 76.5 21.1% 24.9% 14.2% 1.75× 4.02
Cincinnati Bearcats under 59.5 15.3% 19.3% 41.2% 0.47× 5.18
UNLV Lady Rebels under 65.5 15.0% 16.1% 44.7% 0.36× 6.21
UNLV Lady Rebels over 85.5 14.7% 16.1% 9.8% 1.64× 6.21
Cincinnati Bearcats over 79.5 13.1% 16.1% 10.3% 1.56× 6.21
Total points 30
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 124.5 points 90.8% 88.8% 61.5% 1.44× 1.13
Under 164.5 points 90.8% 88.8% 95.9% 0.93× 1.13
Over 129.5 points 83.9% 80.6% 50.5% 1.59× 1.24
Under 159.5 points 84.1% 80.6% 93.3% 0.86× 1.24
Over 134.5 points 74.6% 70.8% 39.8% 1.78× 1.41
Under 154.5 points 74.7% 70.8% 89.8% 0.79× 1.41
Over 137.5 points 67.8% 65.9% 33.8% 1.95× 1.52
Under 151.5 points 68.0% 65.9% 87.3% 0.76× 1.52
Over 139.5 points 62.9% 61.5% 30.1% 2.04× 1.63
Under 149.5 points 63.1% 61.5% 84.9% 0.72× 1.63
Over 141.5 points 57.8% 56.5% 26.6% 2.13× 1.77
Under 147.5 points 58.0% 56.5% 82.3% 0.69× 1.77
Over 143.5 points 52.5% 52.3% 23.3% 2.24× 1.91
Under 145.5 points 52.8% 52.3% 79.5% 0.66× 1.91
Under 144.5 points 50.0% 52.3% 78.1% 0.67× 1.91
Over 144.5 points 50.0% 47.7% 21.9% 2.18× 2.10
Under 143.5 points 47.5% 47.7% 76.7% 0.62× 2.10
Over 145.5 points 47.2% 47.7% 20.5% 2.33× 2.10
Under 141.5 points 42.2% 43.5% 73.4% 0.59× 2.30
Over 147.5 points 42.0% 43.5% 17.7% 2.45× 2.30
Under 139.5 points 37.1% 38.5% 69.9% 0.55× 2.60
Over 149.5 points 36.9% 38.5% 15.1% 2.56× 2.60
Under 137.5 points 32.2% 34.1% 66.2% 0.52× 2.93
Over 151.5 points 32.0% 34.1% 12.8% 2.68× 2.93
Under 134.5 points 25.4% 29.2% 60.2% 0.48× 3.43
Over 154.5 points 25.3% 29.2% 10.2% 2.87× 3.43
Under 129.5 points 16.1% 19.4% 49.5% 0.39× 5.15
Over 159.5 points 15.9% 19.4% 6.7% 2.90× 5.15
Under 124.5 points 9.2% 11.2% 38.5% 0.29× 8.96
Over 164.5 points 9.2% 11.2% 4.1% 2.70× 8.96
Win both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
UNLV Lady Rebels to win both halves 35.7% 36.3% 36.0% 1.01× 2.76
Cincinnati Bearcats to win both halves 9.2% 8.8% 20.4% 0.43× 11.30
Winning margin 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
UNLV Lady Rebels by 1-5 17.4% 16.8% 10.2% 1.64× 5.97
UNLV Lady Rebels by 6-10 17.9% 16.8% 12.9% 1.30× 5.97
UNLV Lady Rebels by 11-15 15.2% 16.8% 10.8% 1.55× 5.97
Cincinnati Bearcats by 1-5 13.0% 12.3% 10.2% 1.21× 8.11
UNLV Lady Rebels by 16-20 10.6% 12.3% 8.0% 1.53× 8.11
Cincinnati Bearcats by 6-10 8.3% 7.5% 10.3% 0.72× 13.40
UNLV Lady Rebels by 21-25 6.1% 7.5% 5.4% 1.39× 13.40
Cincinnati Bearcats by 11-15 4.3% 2.0% 7.6% 0.27× 49.29
UNLV Lady Rebels by 26+ 4.4% 2.0% 12.6% 0.16× 49.29
Cincinnati Bearcats by 16-20 1.9% 2.0% 4.8% 0.43× 49.31
Cincinnati Bearcats by 21-25 0.7% 2.0% 2.7% 0.76× 49.32
Cincinnati Bearcats by 26+ 0.2% 2.0% 4.6% 0.44× 49.33
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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