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Utah Jazz v Los Angeles Lakers — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 25 October 2026 · NBA · 2027

NBA results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

deep No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.
Utah Jazz win
26.8%
Draw
0.0%
Los Angeles Lakers win
73.2%

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
deep 115.39–124.14 115-124 0% 50% 0%
nba-normal 115.39–124.14 115-124 0% 50% 0%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

Century marks 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Los Angeles Lakers to score 100+ 98.3% 94.9% 85.9% 1.11× 1.05
Utah Jazz to score 100+ 91.0% 90.3% 89.3% 1.01× 1.11
Los Angeles Lakers to score 110+ 89.6% 85.1% 60.9% 1.40× 1.18
Both sides to score 100+ 89.6% 85.1% 77.5% 1.10× 1.18
Utah Jazz to score 110+ 68.8% 63.9% 67.0% 0.95× 1.57
Los Angeles Lakers to score 120+ 65.8% 63.8% 29.7% 2.15× 1.57
Utah Jazz to score 120+ 36.0% 35.9% 36.5% 0.98× 2.78
Los Angeles Lakers to score 130+ 32.7% 31.4% 10.0% 3.14× 3.19
Utah Jazz to score 130+ 11.5% 13.8% 12.8% 1.08× 7.24
H1 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Los Angeles Lakers to win H1 63.9% 62.2% 44.1% 1.41× 1.61
Utah Jazz to win H1 32.8% 33.1% 52.8% 0.63× 3.02
H1 tied 3.2% 3.9% 3.1% 1.25× 25.87
H1 total 22
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H1 under 133.5 83.4% 82.5% 93.1% 0.89× 1.21
H1 over 109.5 81.0% 82.5% 65.0% 1.27× 1.21
H1 under 129.5 74.6% 73.5% 88.1% 0.83× 1.36
H1 over 113.5 71.5% 73.5% 52.4% 1.40× 1.36
H1 under 126.5 66.7% 67.4% 82.8% 0.81× 1.48
H1 over 116.5 63.2% 62.7% 43.4% 1.44× 1.59
H1 under 124.5 60.9% 62.7% 78.4% 0.80× 1.59
H1 over 118.5 57.3% 58.2% 37.1% 1.57× 1.72
H1 under 122.5 54.9% 52.6% 74.0% 0.71× 1.90
H1 under 121.5 51.9% 52.6% 71.2% 0.74× 1.90
H1 over 120.5 51.2% 52.6% 31.6% 1.67× 1.90
H1 under 120.5 48.8% 47.4% 68.4% 0.69× 2.11
H1 over 121.5 48.1% 47.4% 28.8% 1.64× 2.11
H1 over 122.5 45.1% 47.4% 26.0% 1.82× 2.11
H1 under 118.5 42.7% 41.8% 62.9% 0.66× 2.39
H1 over 124.5 39.1% 37.3% 21.7% 1.72× 2.68
H1 under 116.5 36.8% 37.3% 56.6% 0.66× 2.68
H1 over 126.5 33.3% 32.6% 17.2% 1.89× 3.07
H1 under 113.5 28.5% 26.5% 47.6% 0.56× 3.77
H1 over 129.5 25.4% 26.5% 11.9% 2.24× 3.77
H1 under 109.5 19.0% 17.5% 35.0% 0.50× 5.72
H1 over 133.5 16.6% 17.5% 6.9% 2.54× 5.73
H2 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Los Angeles Lakers to win H2 63.7% 58.8% 44.7% 1.32× 1.70
Utah Jazz to win H2 33.0% 36.3% 51.6% 0.70× 2.76
H2 tied 3.3% 3.9% 3.7% 1.06× 25.36
H2 total 22
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H2 over 106.5 82.7% 81.8% 68.8% 1.19× 1.22
H2 under 130.5 82.1% 81.8% 88.9% 0.92× 1.22
H2 over 110.5 73.6% 72.2% 58.1% 1.24× 1.39
H2 under 126.5 72.9% 72.2% 83.2% 0.87× 1.39
H2 over 113.5 65.5% 66.4% 49.9% 1.33× 1.51
H2 under 123.5 64.7% 61.6% 76.9% 0.80× 1.62
H2 over 115.5 59.6% 57.3% 44.6% 1.29× 1.74
H2 under 121.5 58.8% 57.3% 72.0% 0.80× 1.74
H2 over 117.5 53.5% 52.4% 38.9% 1.34× 1.91
H2 under 119.5 52.7% 52.4% 66.4% 0.79× 1.91
H2 over 118.5 50.4% 52.4% 36.4% 1.44× 1.91
H2 under 118.5 49.6% 47.6% 63.6% 0.75× 2.10
H2 over 119.5 47.3% 47.6% 33.6% 1.42× 2.10
H2 under 117.5 46.5% 47.6% 61.1% 0.78× 2.10
H2 over 121.5 41.2% 42.7% 28.0% 1.52× 2.34
H2 under 115.5 40.4% 42.7% 55.4% 0.77× 2.35
H2 over 123.5 35.3% 38.4% 23.1% 1.66× 2.61
H2 under 113.5 34.5% 33.6% 50.1% 0.67× 2.97
H2 over 126.5 27.1% 27.8% 16.8% 1.66× 3.59
H2 under 110.5 26.4% 27.8% 41.9% 0.66× 3.59
H2 over 130.5 17.9% 18.2% 11.1% 1.64× 5.50
H2 under 106.5 17.3% 18.2% 31.2% 0.58× 5.50
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Los Angeles Lakers leading at half time 63.9% 62.5% 44.1% 1.42× 1.60
Utah Jazz leading at half time 32.8% 32.7% 52.8% 0.62× 3.05
Level at half time 3.2% 3.8% 3.1% 1.22× 26.41
Handicap 60
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Los Angeles Lakers +16.5 95.8% 97.4% 83.5% 1.17× 1.03
Los Angeles Lakers +18.5 96.9% 97.4% 86.4% 1.13× 1.03
Los Angeles Lakers +20.5 97.8% 97.4% 89.1% 1.09× 1.03
Los Angeles Lakers +14.5 94.4% 91.1% 80.1% 1.14× 1.10
Los Angeles Lakers +12.5 92.7% 91.1% 76.0% 1.20× 1.10
Los Angeles Lakers +10.5 90.6% 91.1% 71.0% 1.28× 1.10
Los Angeles Lakers +9.5 89.3% 85.9% 68.7% 1.25× 1.16
Los Angeles Lakers +8.5 88.0% 85.9% 65.9% 1.30× 1.16
Los Angeles Lakers +7.5 86.6% 85.9% 63.0% 1.36× 1.16
Los Angeles Lakers +6.5 85.0% 85.9% 60.0% 1.43× 1.16
Los Angeles Lakers +5.5 83.3% 81.1% 57.1% 1.42× 1.23
Los Angeles Lakers +4.5 81.5% 81.1% 54.1% 1.50× 1.23
Los Angeles Lakers +3.5 79.6% 76.5% 51.6% 1.48× 1.31
Utah Jazz +20.5 78.6% 76.5% 93.1% 0.82× 1.31
Los Angeles Lakers +2.5 77.6% 76.5% 49.1% 1.56× 1.31
Los Angeles Lakers +1.5 75.5% 76.5% 46.3% 1.65× 1.31
Utah Jazz +18.5 74.3% 71.6% 91.5% 0.78× 1.40
Los Angeles Lakers −1.5 70.8% 71.6% 42.1% 1.70× 1.40
Utah Jazz +16.5 69.7% 66.7% 89.7% 0.74× 1.50
Los Angeles Lakers −2.5 68.2% 66.7% 39.5% 1.69× 1.50
Los Angeles Lakers −3.5 65.6% 66.7% 36.9% 1.81× 1.50
Utah Jazz +14.5 64.6% 61.9% 87.0% 0.71× 1.62
Los Angeles Lakers −4.5 63.0% 61.9% 34.3% 1.81× 1.62
Los Angeles Lakers −5.5 60.2% 61.9% 32.0% 1.93× 1.62
Utah Jazz +12.5 59.3% 57.1% 83.9% 0.68× 1.75
Los Angeles Lakers −6.5 57.5% 57.1% 29.4% 1.94× 1.75
Los Angeles Lakers −7.5 54.7% 52.4% 27.0% 1.94× 1.91
Utah Jazz +10.5 53.7% 52.4% 80.3% 0.65× 1.91
Los Angeles Lakers −8.5 51.9% 52.4% 24.3% 2.15× 1.91
Utah Jazz +9.5 50.9% 52.4% 78.1% 0.67× 1.91
Los Angeles Lakers −9.5 49.1% 47.6% 21.9% 2.18× 2.10
Utah Jazz +8.5 48.1% 47.6% 75.7% 0.63× 2.10
Los Angeles Lakers −10.5 46.3% 47.6% 19.7% 2.41× 2.10
Utah Jazz +7.5 45.3% 47.6% 73.0% 0.65× 2.10
Utah Jazz +6.5 42.5% 42.9% 70.6% 0.61× 2.33
Los Angeles Lakers −12.5 40.7% 42.9% 16.1% 2.66× 2.33
Utah Jazz +5.5 39.8% 38.1% 68.0% 0.56× 2.63
Utah Jazz +4.5 37.0% 38.1% 65.7% 0.58× 2.63
Los Angeles Lakers −14.5 35.4% 38.1% 13.0% 2.93× 2.63
Utah Jazz +3.5 34.4% 33.3% 63.1% 0.53× 3.01
Utah Jazz +2.5 31.8% 33.3% 60.5% 0.55× 3.01
Los Angeles Lakers −16.5 30.3% 33.3% 10.3% 3.22× 3.01
Utah Jazz +1.5 29.2% 28.4% 57.9% 0.49× 3.53
Los Angeles Lakers −18.5 25.7% 28.4% 8.5% 3.33× 3.53
Utah Jazz −1.5 24.5% 23.5% 53.7% 0.44× 4.25
Utah Jazz −2.5 22.4% 23.5% 50.9% 0.46× 4.25
Utah Jazz −3.5 20.4% 23.5% 48.4% 0.49× 4.25
Los Angeles Lakers −20.5 21.4% 23.5% 6.9% 3.42× 4.25
Utah Jazz −4.5 18.5% 18.9% 46.0% 0.41× 5.29
Utah Jazz −5.5 16.7% 18.9% 42.9% 0.44× 5.29
Utah Jazz −6.5 15.0% 14.1% 40.0% 0.35× 7.09
Utah Jazz −7.5 13.4% 14.1% 37.0% 0.38× 7.09
Utah Jazz −8.5 12.0% 14.1% 34.1% 0.41× 7.09
Utah Jazz −9.5 10.7% 14.1% 31.3% 0.45× 7.09
Utah Jazz −10.5 9.4% 8.9% 29.0% 0.31× 11.25
Utah Jazz −12.5 7.3% 8.9% 24.0% 0.37× 11.25
Utah Jazz −14.5 5.6% 8.9% 19.9% 0.45× 11.25
Utah Jazz −16.5 4.2% 2.6% 16.5% 0.16× 38.72
Utah Jazz −18.5 3.1% 2.6% 13.6% 0.19× 38.73
Utah Jazz −20.5 2.2% 2.6% 10.9% 0.24× 38.73
Highest scoring half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1st half highest scoring 56.9% 52.6% 53.5% 0.98× 1.90
2nd half highest scoring 43.1% 47.4% 46.5% 1.02× 2.11
Highest scoring quarter 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q1 highest scoring 28.4% 27.4% 29.2% 0.94× 3.65
Q3 highest scoring 28.1% 27.4% 27.5% 1.00× 3.65
Q2 highest scoring 26.6% 27.4% 26.3% 1.04× 3.65
Q4 highest scoring 16.9% 18.3% 17.0% 1.08× 5.46
HT/FT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Los Angeles Lakers at HT / Los Angeles Lakers at FT 56.1% 56.8% 30.9% 1.84× 1.76
Utah Jazz at HT / Utah Jazz at FT 18.0% 15.5% 40.8% 0.38× 6.47
Utah Jazz at HT / Los Angeles Lakers at FT 14.9% 12.2% 12.0% 1.02× 8.17
Los Angeles Lakers at HT / Utah Jazz at FT 7.8% 8.3% 13.3% 0.62× 12.09
Level at HT / Los Angeles Lakers at FT 2.2% 2.1% 1.4% 1.50× 47.75
Level at HT / Utah Jazz at FT 1.0% 2.1% 1.7% 1.22× 47.77
Moneyline 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Los Angeles Lakers to win 73.2% 68.7% 44.3% 1.55× 1.46
Utah Jazz to win 26.8% 31.3% 55.7% 0.56× 3.20
Odd/Even 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Utah Jazz even 50.0% 50.5% 49.7% 1.02× 1.98
Los Angeles Lakers odd 50.0% 50.5% 49.7% 1.02× 1.98
Total points odd 51.2% 50.5% 51.0% 0.99× 1.98
Utah Jazz odd 50.0% 49.5% 50.3% 0.98× 2.02
Los Angeles Lakers even 50.0% 49.5% 50.3% 0.98× 2.02
Total points even 48.8% 49.5% 49.0% 1.01× 2.02
Overtime 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
No overtime 94.1% 94.0% 94.8% 0.99× 1.06
Match to go to overtime 5.9% 6.0% 5.2% 1.16× 16.66
Q1 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Los Angeles Lakers to win Q1 58.4% 57.3% 44.1% 1.30× 1.75
Utah Jazz to win Q1 37.0% 38.2% 51.3% 0.74× 2.62
Q1 tied 4.6% 4.2% 4.6% 0.90× 23.95
Q1 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q1 over 52.5 83.0% 82.8% 72.4% 1.14× 1.21
Q1 under 68.5 82.4% 82.8% 90.7% 0.91× 1.21
Q1 over 55.5 72.6% 72.7% 59.2% 1.23× 1.38
Q1 under 65.5 71.8% 72.7% 83.2% 0.87× 1.38
Q1 over 57.5 64.3% 61.7% 49.6% 1.25× 1.62
Q1 under 63.5 63.3% 61.7% 76.8% 0.80× 1.62
Q1 over 59.5 55.2% 58.6% 40.0% 1.47× 1.71
Q1 under 61.5 54.2% 52.7% 68.5% 0.77× 1.90
Q1 over 60.5 50.5% 52.7% 35.5% 1.48× 1.90
Q1 under 60.5 49.5% 47.3% 64.5% 0.73× 2.11
Q1 over 61.5 45.8% 47.3% 31.5% 1.50× 2.11
Q1 under 59.5 44.8% 41.4% 60.0% 0.69× 2.42
Q1 over 63.5 36.7% 38.3% 23.2% 1.65× 2.61
Q1 under 57.5 35.8% 38.3% 50.4% 0.76× 2.61
Q1 over 65.5 28.2% 27.3% 16.8% 1.62× 3.66
Q1 under 55.5 27.4% 27.3% 40.8% 0.67× 3.66
Q1 over 68.5 17.6% 17.2% 9.3% 1.84× 5.83
Q1 under 52.5 17.0% 17.2% 27.6% 0.62× 5.83
Q2 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Los Angeles Lakers to win Q2 58.3% 59.4% 46.2% 1.28× 1.68
Utah Jazz to win Q2 37.1% 35.8% 49.3% 0.73× 2.80
Q2 tied 4.6% 4.4% 4.5% 0.98× 22.89
Q2 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q2 under 68.5 83.2% 83.0% 90.6% 0.92× 1.21
Q2 over 52.5 81.9% 83.0% 70.3% 1.18× 1.21
Q2 under 65.5 72.9% 72.0% 83.6% 0.86× 1.39
Q2 over 55.5 71.2% 72.0% 56.3% 1.28× 1.39
Q2 under 63.5 64.6% 60.7% 77.5% 0.78× 1.65
Q2 over 57.5 62.8% 60.7% 47.3% 1.28× 1.65
Q2 under 61.5 55.6% 58.2% 70.4% 0.83× 1.72
Q2 over 59.5 53.7% 52.7% 38.1% 1.38× 1.90
Q2 under 60.5 51.0% 52.7% 65.7% 0.80× 1.90
Q2 over 60.5 49.0% 47.3% 34.3% 1.38× 2.11
Q2 under 59.5 46.3% 47.3% 61.9% 0.76× 2.11
Q2 over 61.5 44.4% 41.8% 29.6% 1.41× 2.39
Q2 under 57.5 37.2% 39.3% 52.7% 0.75× 2.55
Q2 over 63.5 35.4% 39.3% 22.5% 1.75× 2.55
Q2 under 55.5 28.8% 28.0% 43.7% 0.64× 3.57
Q2 over 65.5 27.1% 28.0% 16.4% 1.71× 3.57
Q2 under 52.5 18.1% 17.0% 29.7% 0.57× 5.88
Q2 over 68.5 16.8% 17.0% 9.4% 1.80× 5.88
Q3 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Los Angeles Lakers to win Q3 58.3% 56.8% 44.3% 1.28× 1.76
Utah Jazz to win Q3 37.1% 38.8% 50.9% 0.76× 2.58
Q3 tied 4.6% 4.3% 4.9% 0.88× 23.43
Q3 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q3 under 69.5 85.0% 87.2% 91.4% 0.95× 1.15
Q3 over 53.5 80.6% 82.3% 68.3% 1.20× 1.22
Q3 under 66.5 75.2% 77.3% 84.7% 0.91× 1.29
Q3 over 56.5 69.4% 67.8% 55.0% 1.23× 1.48
Q3 under 64.5 67.1% 67.8% 79.2% 0.86× 1.48
Q3 over 58.5 60.6% 61.9% 45.2% 1.37× 1.61
Q3 under 62.5 58.1% 58.4% 71.9% 0.81× 1.71
Q3 under 61.5 53.5% 52.3% 67.7% 0.77× 1.91
Q3 over 60.5 51.3% 52.3% 36.5% 1.43× 1.91
Q3 under 60.5 48.7% 47.7% 63.5% 0.75× 2.10
Q3 over 61.5 46.5% 47.7% 32.3% 1.48× 2.10
Q3 over 62.5 41.9% 41.6% 28.1% 1.48× 2.40
Q3 under 58.5 39.4% 38.1% 54.8% 0.69× 2.63
Q3 over 64.5 32.9% 32.2% 20.8% 1.55× 3.10
Q3 under 56.5 30.6% 32.2% 45.0% 0.72× 3.11
Q3 over 66.5 24.8% 22.7% 15.3% 1.49× 4.40
Q3 under 53.5 19.4% 17.7% 31.7% 0.56× 5.65
Q3 over 69.5 15.0% 12.8% 8.6% 1.48× 7.83
Q4 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Los Angeles Lakers to win Q4 58.1% 52.1% 46.4% 1.12× 1.92
Utah Jazz to win Q4 37.2% 42.4% 48.3% 0.88× 2.36
Q4 tied 4.7% 5.2% 5.3% 0.98× 19.28
Q4 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q4 under 66.5 84.0% 82.0% 90.4% 0.91× 1.22
Q4 over 50.5 80.2% 82.0% 68.5% 1.20× 1.22
Q4 under 63.5 74.2% 71.5% 83.7% 0.85× 1.40
Q4 over 53.5 69.3% 67.4% 55.7% 1.21× 1.48
Q4 under 61.5 66.2% 67.4% 77.5% 0.87× 1.48
Q4 over 55.5 60.8% 61.4% 47.1% 1.30× 1.63
Q4 under 59.5 57.4% 58.4% 70.2% 0.83× 1.71
Q4 under 58.5 52.9% 52.5% 66.2% 0.79× 1.91
Q4 over 57.5 51.7% 52.5% 38.1% 1.38× 1.91
Q4 under 57.5 48.3% 47.5% 61.9% 0.77× 2.11
Q4 over 58.5 47.1% 47.5% 33.8% 1.41× 2.11
Q4 over 59.5 42.6% 41.6% 29.8% 1.40× 2.40
Q4 under 55.5 39.2% 38.6% 52.9% 0.73× 2.59
Q4 over 61.5 33.8% 32.6% 22.5% 1.45× 3.07
Q4 under 53.5 30.7% 32.6% 44.3% 0.73× 3.07
Q4 over 63.5 25.8% 28.5% 16.3% 1.75× 3.51
Q4 under 50.5 19.8% 18.0% 31.5% 0.57× 5.56
Q4 over 66.5 16.0% 18.0% 9.6% 1.88× 5.56
Team total 44
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Utah Jazz under 125.5 80.7% 80.7% 79.1% 1.02× 1.24
Los Angeles Lakers under 134.5 81.0% 80.7% 95.3% 0.85× 1.24
Utah Jazz over 105.5 79.7% 75.1% 77.4% 0.97× 1.33
Los Angeles Lakers over 114.5 79.8% 75.1% 44.5% 1.69× 1.33
Los Angeles Lakers under 131.5 73.2% 70.7% 92.6% 0.76× 1.41
Utah Jazz over 108.5 71.7% 70.7% 69.9% 1.01× 1.41
Utah Jazz under 122.5 73.0% 70.7% 71.8% 0.98× 1.41
Los Angeles Lakers over 117.5 71.8% 70.7% 35.6% 1.99× 1.41
Utah Jazz under 120.5 67.1% 66.4% 66.3% 1.00× 1.51
Los Angeles Lakers under 129.5 67.3% 66.4% 90.0% 0.74× 1.51
Los Angeles Lakers over 119.5 65.8% 66.4% 29.7% 2.24× 1.51
Utah Jazz over 110.5 65.7% 66.4% 64.1% 1.04× 1.51
Utah Jazz under 118.5 60.8% 61.2% 60.3% 1.02× 1.63
Los Angeles Lakers under 127.5 60.9% 61.2% 86.9% 0.70× 1.63
Utah Jazz over 112.5 59.3% 57.1% 57.7% 0.99× 1.75
Los Angeles Lakers over 121.5 59.4% 57.1% 25.3% 2.26× 1.75
Utah Jazz under 116.5 54.2% 52.3% 54.7% 0.95× 1.91
Los Angeles Lakers under 125.5 54.2% 52.3% 83.4% 0.63× 1.91
Utah Jazz over 114.5 52.6% 52.3% 51.4% 1.02× 1.91
Los Angeles Lakers over 123.5 52.6% 52.3% 20.5% 2.55× 1.91
Utah Jazz under 115.5 50.8% 52.3% 51.6% 1.01× 1.91
Los Angeles Lakers under 124.5 50.8% 52.3% 81.4% 0.64× 1.91
Utah Jazz over 115.5 49.2% 47.7% 48.4% 0.99× 2.09
Los Angeles Lakers over 124.5 49.2% 47.7% 18.6% 2.57× 2.09
Utah Jazz under 114.5 47.4% 47.7% 48.6% 0.98× 2.09
Los Angeles Lakers under 123.5 47.4% 47.7% 79.5% 0.60× 2.09
Utah Jazz over 116.5 45.8% 47.7% 45.3% 1.05× 2.09
Los Angeles Lakers over 125.5 45.8% 47.7% 16.6% 2.87× 2.09
Utah Jazz under 112.5 40.7% 42.9% 42.3% 1.01× 2.33
Los Angeles Lakers under 121.5 40.6% 42.9% 74.7% 0.57× 2.33
Utah Jazz over 118.5 39.2% 38.8% 39.7% 0.98× 2.58
Los Angeles Lakers over 127.5 39.1% 38.8% 13.1% 2.96× 2.58
Utah Jazz under 110.5 34.3% 33.6% 35.9% 0.94× 2.98
Los Angeles Lakers under 119.5 34.2% 33.6% 70.3% 0.48× 2.98
Utah Jazz over 120.5 32.9% 33.6% 33.7% 1.00× 2.98
Los Angeles Lakers over 129.5 32.7% 33.6% 10.0% 3.37× 2.98
Utah Jazz under 108.5 28.3% 29.3% 30.1% 0.97× 3.42
Utah Jazz over 122.5 27.0% 29.3% 28.2% 1.04× 3.42
Los Angeles Lakers under 117.5 28.2% 29.3% 64.4% 0.45× 3.42
Los Angeles Lakers over 131.5 26.8% 29.3% 7.4% 3.95× 3.42
Utah Jazz under 105.5 20.3% 24.9% 22.6% 1.10× 4.02
Los Angeles Lakers under 114.5 20.2% 24.9% 55.5% 0.45× 4.02
Utah Jazz over 125.5 19.3% 19.3% 20.9% 0.92× 5.18
Los Angeles Lakers over 134.5 19.0% 19.3% 4.7% 4.15× 5.18
Total points 30
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 219.5 points 86.2% 85.0% 66.1% 1.29× 1.18
Under 259.5 points 86.1% 85.0% 93.6% 0.91× 1.18
Under 254.5 points 79.2% 75.6% 89.9% 0.84× 1.32
Over 224.5 points 79.3% 75.6% 56.5% 1.34× 1.32
Under 249.5 points 70.6% 70.8% 85.3% 0.83× 1.41
Over 229.5 points 70.7% 70.8% 46.7% 1.52× 1.41
Under 246.5 points 64.7% 61.5% 82.0% 0.75× 1.63
Over 232.5 points 64.9% 61.5% 40.6% 1.51× 1.63
Under 244.5 points 60.6% 61.5% 79.5% 0.77× 1.63
Over 234.5 points 60.8% 61.5% 36.7% 1.68× 1.63
Over 236.5 points 56.6% 56.5% 32.7% 1.73× 1.77
Under 242.5 points 56.4% 56.5% 76.8% 0.74× 1.77
Over 238.5 points 52.3% 52.3% 29.1% 1.80× 1.91
Under 240.5 points 52.1% 52.3% 74.0% 0.71× 1.91
Over 239.5 points 50.1% 52.3% 27.5% 1.90× 1.91
Under 239.5 points 50.0% 47.7% 72.5% 0.66× 2.10
Under 238.5 points 47.7% 47.7% 70.9% 0.67× 2.10
Over 240.5 points 47.9% 47.7% 26.0% 1.84× 2.10
Under 236.5 points 43.4% 43.5% 67.3% 0.65× 2.30
Over 242.5 points 43.6% 43.5% 23.2% 1.88× 2.30
Over 244.5 points 39.4% 38.5% 20.5% 1.88× 2.60
Under 234.5 points 39.2% 38.5% 63.3% 0.61× 2.60
Over 246.5 points 35.3% 38.5% 18.0% 2.14× 2.60
Under 232.5 points 35.1% 38.5% 59.4% 0.65× 2.60
Over 249.5 points 29.4% 29.2% 14.7% 1.99× 3.43
Under 229.5 points 29.3% 29.2% 53.3% 0.55× 3.43
Over 254.5 points 20.8% 24.4% 10.1% 2.42× 4.10
Under 224.5 points 20.7% 24.4% 43.5% 0.56× 4.10
Over 259.5 points 13.9% 15.0% 6.4% 2.35× 6.68
Under 219.5 points 13.8% 15.0% 33.9% 0.44× 6.68
Win both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Los Angeles Lakers to win both halves 38.8% 36.3% 17.8% 2.04× 2.75
Utah Jazz to win both halves 9.0% 8.8% 25.2% 0.35× 11.30
Winning margin 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Los Angeles Lakers by 6-10 14.0% 12.3% 12.3% 1.00× 8.11
Los Angeles Lakers by 11-15 13.4% 12.3% 8.0% 1.54× 8.11
Los Angeles Lakers by 1-5 13.0% 12.3% 12.3% 1.01× 8.11
Los Angeles Lakers by 26+ 12.7% 12.3% 3.9% 3.19× 8.11
Los Angeles Lakers by 16-20 11.5% 12.3% 4.9% 2.54× 8.11
Utah Jazz by 1-5 10.1% 12.3% 12.8% 0.96× 8.11
Los Angeles Lakers by 21-25 8.7% 7.5% 3.0% 2.45× 13.40
Utah Jazz by 6-10 7.2% 7.5% 13.9% 0.54× 13.40
Utah Jazz by 11-15 4.6% 2.0% 10.8% 0.19× 49.29
Utah Jazz by 16-20 2.6% 2.0% 7.3% 0.28× 49.31
Utah Jazz by 21-25 1.3% 2.0% 4.7% 0.43× 49.32
Utah Jazz by 26+ 0.9% 2.0% 6.2% 0.33× 49.32
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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