Utah Jazz v Miami Heat — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Wednesday 11 November 2026 · NBA · 2027

NBA results-only Prediction generated 4 Sep 2026, 03:45 UTC

Utah Jazz

02:00 UTC

Miami Heat

AI prediction

nba-normal No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.

Utah Jazz win

28.0%

Draw

0.0%

Miami Heat win

72.0%

28072

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
nba-normal	28072	122.16–130.39	122-130 0%	50%	0%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

Century marks 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Miami Heat to score 100+	99.6%	94.9%	85.9%	1.11×	1.05
Utah Jazz to score 100+	97.2%	94.9%	89.3%	1.06×	1.05
Both sides to score 100+	96.9%	94.9%	77.5%	1.22×	1.05
Miami Heat to score 110+	96.3%	94.9%	60.9%	1.56×	1.05
Utah Jazz to score 110+	85.7%	85.0%	67.0%	1.27×	1.18
Miami Heat to score 120+	82.6%	79.3%	29.7%	2.67×	1.26
Utah Jazz to score 120+	58.5%	56.4%	36.5%	1.54×	1.77
Miami Heat to score 130+	53.4%	52.4%	10.0%	5.25×	1.91
Utah Jazz to score 130+	26.4%	27.5%	12.8%	2.14×	3.64

H1 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Miami Heat to win H1	63.0%	62.2%	44.1%	1.41×	1.61
Utah Jazz to win H1	33.7%	33.1%	52.8%	0.63×	3.02
H1 tied	3.3%	3.9%	3.1%	1.25×	25.87

H1 total 22

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
H1 over 115.5	82.1%	82.5%	46.4%	1.78×	1.21
H1 under 139.5	82.3%	82.5%	97.4%	0.85×	1.21
H1 over 119.5	73.0%	73.5%	34.1%	2.16×	1.36
H1 under 135.5	73.2%	73.5%	94.8%	0.77×	1.36
H1 under 132.5	65.1%	67.4%	92.0%	0.73×	1.48
H1 over 122.5	64.9%	62.7%	26.0%	2.41×	1.59
H1 over 124.5	59.0%	58.2%	21.7%	2.69×	1.72
H1 under 130.5	59.2%	58.2%	89.6%	0.65×	1.72
H1 over 126.5	52.9%	52.6%	17.2%	3.06×	1.90
H1 under 128.5	53.2%	52.6%	86.7%	0.61×	1.90
H1 under 127.5	50.1%	52.6%	84.8%	0.62×	1.90
H1 over 127.5	49.9%	47.4%	15.2%	3.12×	2.11
H1 under 126.5	47.1%	47.4%	82.8%	0.57×	2.11
H1 over 128.5	46.8%	47.4%	13.3%	3.55×	2.11
H1 under 124.5	41.0%	41.8%	78.4%	0.53×	2.39
H1 over 130.5	40.8%	41.8%	10.4%	4.03×	2.39
H1 under 122.5	35.1%	37.3%	74.0%	0.50×	2.68
H1 over 132.5	34.9%	32.6%	8.0%	4.07×	3.07
H1 under 119.5	27.0%	26.5%	65.9%	0.40×	3.77
H1 over 135.5	26.8%	26.5%	5.2%	5.13×	3.77
H1 under 115.5	17.9%	17.5%	53.6%	0.33×	5.73
H1 over 139.5	17.7%	17.5%	2.6%	6.74×	5.73

H2 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Miami Heat to win H2	62.8%	58.8%	44.7%	1.32×	1.70
Utah Jazz to win H2	33.9%	36.3%	51.6%	0.70×	2.75
H2 tied	3.3%	3.9%	3.7%	1.06×	25.36

H2 total 22

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
H2 under 137.5	83.2%	81.8%	94.6%	0.87×	1.22
H2 over 113.5	81.6%	81.8%	49.9%	1.64×	1.22
H2 under 133.5	74.3%	72.2%	91.8%	0.79×	1.39
H2 over 117.5	72.2%	72.2%	38.9%	1.85×	1.39
H2 under 130.5	66.3%	66.4%	88.9%	0.75×	1.51
H2 over 120.5	63.9%	61.6%	30.7%	2.01×	1.62
H2 under 128.5	60.5%	61.6%	86.3%	0.71×	1.62
H2 over 122.5	58.0%	57.3%	25.6%	2.24×	1.74
H2 under 126.5	54.4%	52.4%	83.2%	0.63×	1.91
H2 over 124.5	51.8%	52.4%	20.9%	2.51×	1.91
H2 under 125.5	51.3%	52.4%	81.3%	0.64×	1.91
H2 over 125.5	48.7%	47.6%	18.7%	2.54×	2.10
H2 under 124.5	48.2%	47.6%	79.1%	0.60×	2.10
H2 over 126.5	45.6%	47.6%	16.8%	2.84×	2.10
H2 under 122.5	42.0%	42.7%	74.4%	0.57×	2.34
H2 over 128.5	39.6%	38.4%	13.7%	2.79×	2.61
H2 under 120.5	36.1%	38.4%	69.3%	0.55×	2.61
H2 over 130.5	33.7%	33.6%	11.1%	3.04×	2.97
H2 under 117.5	27.8%	27.8%	61.1%	0.46×	3.59
H2 over 133.5	25.7%	27.8%	8.2%	3.40×	3.59
H2 under 113.5	18.4%	18.2%	50.1%	0.36×	5.50
H2 over 137.5	16.8%	18.2%	5.4%	3.36×	5.50

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Miami Heat leading at half time	63.0%	62.5%	44.1%	1.42×	1.60
Utah Jazz leading at half time	33.7%	32.8%	52.8%	0.62×	3.05
Level at half time	3.3%	3.8%	3.1%	1.22×	26.41

Handicap 60

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Miami Heat +18.5	96.7%	97.4%	86.4%	1.13×	1.03
Miami Heat +20.5	97.6%	97.4%	89.1%	1.09×	1.03
Miami Heat +16.5	95.5%	97.4%	83.5%	1.17×	1.03
Miami Heat +12.5	92.2%	91.1%	76.0%	1.20×	1.10
Miami Heat +14.5	94.0%	91.1%	80.1%	1.14×	1.10
Miami Heat +9.5	88.7%	85.9%	68.7%	1.25×	1.16
Miami Heat +10.5	89.9%	85.9%	71.0%	1.21×	1.16
Miami Heat +8.5	87.3%	85.9%	65.9%	1.30×	1.16
Miami Heat +7.5	85.8%	85.9%	63.0%	1.36×	1.16
Miami Heat +6.5	84.1%	81.1%	60.0%	1.35×	1.23
Miami Heat +5.5	82.4%	81.1%	57.1%	1.42×	1.23
Miami Heat +4.5	80.5%	81.1%	54.1%	1.50×	1.23
Utah Jazz +20.5	79.7%	76.5%	93.1%	0.82×	1.31
Miami Heat +3.5	78.6%	76.5%	51.6%	1.48×	1.31
Miami Heat +2.5	76.5%	76.5%	49.1%	1.56×	1.31
Utah Jazz +18.5	75.5%	76.5%	91.5%	0.84×	1.31
Miami Heat +1.5	74.3%	71.6%	46.3%	1.55×	1.40
Utah Jazz +16.5	70.9%	71.6%	89.7%	0.80×	1.40
Miami Heat −1.5	69.5%	66.7%	42.1%	1.58×	1.50
Miami Heat −2.5	66.9%	66.7%	39.5%	1.69×	1.50
Utah Jazz +14.5	66.0%	66.7%	87.0%	0.77×	1.50
Miami Heat −3.5	64.3%	61.9%	36.9%	1.68×	1.62
Miami Heat −4.5	61.6%	61.9%	34.3%	1.81×	1.62
Utah Jazz +12.5	60.7%	61.9%	83.9%	0.74×	1.62
Miami Heat −5.5	58.8%	57.1%	32.0%	1.78×	1.75
Miami Heat −6.5	56.0%	57.1%	29.4%	1.94×	1.75
Utah Jazz +10.5	55.2%	57.1%	80.3%	0.71×	1.75
Miami Heat −7.5	53.2%	52.4%	27.0%	1.94×	1.91
Utah Jazz +9.5	52.4%	52.4%	78.1%	0.67×	1.91
Miami Heat −8.5	50.4%	52.4%	24.3%	2.15×	1.91
Utah Jazz +8.5	49.6%	47.6%	75.7%	0.63×	2.10
Miami Heat −9.5	47.6%	47.6%	21.9%	2.18×	2.10
Utah Jazz +7.5	46.8%	47.6%	73.0%	0.65×	2.10
Miami Heat −10.5	44.8%	42.9%	19.7%	2.18×	2.33
Utah Jazz +6.5	44.0%	42.9%	70.6%	0.61×	2.33
Utah Jazz +5.5	41.2%	42.9%	68.0%	0.63×	2.33
Miami Heat −12.5	39.3%	38.1%	16.1%	2.36×	2.63
Utah Jazz +4.5	38.4%	38.1%	65.7%	0.58×	2.63
Utah Jazz +3.5	35.7%	38.1%	63.1%	0.60×	2.63
Miami Heat −14.5	34.0%	33.3%	13.0%	2.56×	3.01
Utah Jazz +2.5	33.1%	33.3%	60.5%	0.55×	3.01
Utah Jazz +1.5	30.5%	33.3%	57.9%	0.57×	3.01
Miami Heat −16.5	29.1%	28.4%	10.3%	2.74×	3.53
Utah Jazz −1.5	25.7%	28.4%	53.7%	0.53×	3.53
Miami Heat −18.5	24.5%	23.5%	8.5%	2.76×	4.25
Utah Jazz −2.5	23.5%	23.5%	50.9%	0.46×	4.25
Utah Jazz −3.5	21.4%	23.5%	48.4%	0.49×	4.25
Miami Heat −20.5	20.3%	23.5%	6.9%	3.42×	4.25
Utah Jazz −4.5	19.5%	18.9%	46.0%	0.41×	5.29
Utah Jazz −5.5	17.6%	18.9%	42.9%	0.44×	5.29
Utah Jazz −6.5	15.9%	18.9%	40.0%	0.47×	5.30
Utah Jazz −7.5	14.2%	14.1%	37.0%	0.38×	7.09
Utah Jazz −8.5	12.7%	14.1%	34.1%	0.41×	7.09
Utah Jazz −9.5	11.3%	14.1%	31.3%	0.45×	7.09
Utah Jazz −10.5	10.1%	14.1%	29.0%	0.49×	7.09
Utah Jazz −12.5	7.8%	8.9%	24.0%	0.37×	11.25
Utah Jazz −14.5	6.0%	8.9%	19.9%	0.45×	11.25
Utah Jazz −16.5	4.5%	2.6%	16.5%	0.16×	38.72
Utah Jazz −18.5	3.3%	2.6%	13.6%	0.19×	38.73
Utah Jazz −20.5	2.4%	2.6%	10.9%	0.24×	38.73

Highest scoring half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1st half highest scoring	57.3%	52.6%	53.5%	0.98×	1.90
2nd half highest scoring	42.7%	47.4%	46.5%	1.02×	2.11

Highest scoring quarter 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Q1 highest scoring	28.6%	27.4%	29.2%	0.94×	3.65
Q3 highest scoring	28.3%	27.4%	27.5%	1.00×	3.65
Q2 highest scoring	26.6%	27.4%	26.3%	1.04×	3.65
Q4 highest scoring	16.5%	18.3%	17.0%	1.08×	5.46

HT/FT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Miami Heat at HT / Miami Heat at FT	54.9%	51.1%	30.9%	1.66×	1.96
Utah Jazz at HT / Utah Jazz at FT	18.8%	15.5%	40.8%	0.38×	6.47
Utah Jazz at HT / Miami Heat at FT	14.9%	12.2%	12.0%	1.02×	8.17
Miami Heat at HT / Utah Jazz at FT	8.1%	8.3%	13.3%	0.62×	12.08
Level at HT / Miami Heat at FT	2.2%	2.1%	1.4%	1.50×	47.75
Level at HT / Utah Jazz at FT	1.1%	2.1%	1.7%	1.22×	47.77

Moneyline 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Miami Heat to win	72.0%	68.7%	44.3%	1.55×	1.46
Utah Jazz to win	28.0%	31.3%	55.7%	0.56×	3.20

Odd/Even 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Utah Jazz even	50.0%	50.5%	49.7%	1.02×	1.98
Miami Heat odd	50.0%	50.5%	49.7%	1.02×	1.98
Total points odd	51.2%	50.5%	51.0%	0.99×	1.98
Utah Jazz odd	50.0%	49.5%	50.3%	0.98×	2.02
Miami Heat even	50.0%	49.5%	50.3%	0.98×	2.02
Total points even	48.8%	49.5%	49.0%	1.01×	2.02

Overtime 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
No overtime	94.0%	94.0%	94.8%	0.99×	1.06
Match to go to overtime	6.0%	6.0%	5.2%	1.16×	16.66

Q1 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Miami Heat to win Q1	57.8%	57.3%	44.1%	1.30×	1.75
Utah Jazz to win Q1	37.6%	38.2%	51.3%	0.74×	2.62
Q1 tied	4.6%	4.2%	4.6%	0.90×	23.95

Q1 total 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Q1 under 72.5	84.4%	82.8%	96.0%	0.86×	1.21
Q1 over 56.5	80.8%	82.8%	54.6%	1.52×	1.21
Q1 under 69.5	74.5%	72.7%	92.7%	0.78×	1.38
Q1 over 59.5	69.8%	67.6%	40.0%	1.69×	1.48
Q1 under 67.5	66.4%	67.6%	88.8%	0.76×	1.48
Q1 over 61.5	61.1%	61.7%	31.5%	1.96×	1.62
Q1 under 65.5	57.5%	58.6%	83.2%	0.70×	1.71
Q1 under 64.5	52.8%	52.7%	80.1%	0.66×	1.90
Q1 over 63.5	51.9%	52.7%	23.2%	2.27×	1.90
Q1 under 63.5	48.1%	47.3%	76.8%	0.62×	2.11
Q1 over 64.5	47.2%	47.3%	19.9%	2.38×	2.11
Q1 over 65.5	42.5%	41.4%	16.8%	2.46×	2.42
Q1 under 61.5	38.9%	38.3%	68.5%	0.56×	2.61
Q1 over 67.5	33.6%	32.4%	11.2%	2.89×	3.08
Q1 under 59.5	30.3%	32.4%	60.0%	0.54×	3.08
Q1 over 69.5	25.5%	27.3%	7.3%	3.72×	3.66
Q1 under 56.5	19.2%	17.2%	45.4%	0.38×	5.83
Q1 over 72.5	15.6%	17.2%	4.0%	4.32×	5.83

Q2 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Miami Heat to win Q2	57.7%	59.4%	46.2%	1.28×	1.68
Utah Jazz to win Q2	37.7%	35.8%	49.3%	0.73×	2.80
Q2 tied	4.6%	4.4%	4.5%	0.98×	22.89

Q2 total 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Q2 over 55.5	82.7%	83.0%	56.3%	1.47×	1.21
Q2 under 71.5	82.3%	83.0%	95.0%	0.87×	1.21
Q2 over 58.5	72.3%	72.0%	42.7%	1.69×	1.39
Q2 under 68.5	71.8%	72.0%	90.6%	0.79×	1.39
Q2 over 60.5	64.0%	60.7%	34.3%	1.77×	1.65
Q2 under 66.5	63.4%	60.7%	86.5%	0.70×	1.65
Q2 over 62.5	55.0%	52.7%	25.6%	2.06×	1.90
Q2 under 64.5	54.4%	52.7%	80.9%	0.65×	1.90
Q2 over 63.5	50.3%	52.7%	22.5%	2.34×	1.90
Q2 under 63.5	49.7%	47.3%	77.5%	0.61×	2.11
Q2 over 64.5	45.6%	47.3%	19.1%	2.47×	2.11
Q2 under 62.5	45.0%	47.3%	74.4%	0.64×	2.11
Q2 over 66.5	36.6%	39.3%	13.5%	2.92×	2.55
Q2 under 60.5	36.0%	39.3%	65.7%	0.60×	2.55
Q2 over 68.5	28.2%	28.0%	9.4%	2.97×	3.57
Q2 under 58.5	27.7%	28.0%	57.3%	0.49×	3.57
Q2 over 71.5	17.7%	17.0%	5.0%	3.42×	5.88
Q2 under 55.5	17.3%	17.0%	43.7%	0.39×	5.88

Q3 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Miami Heat to win Q3	57.7%	56.8%	44.3%	1.28×	1.76
Utah Jazz to win Q3	37.7%	38.8%	50.9%	0.76×	2.58
Q3 tied	4.6%	4.3%	4.9%	0.88×	23.43

Q3 total 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Q3 under 72.5	84.2%	82.3%	95.6%	0.86×	1.22
Q3 over 56.5	81.6%	82.3%	55.0%	1.50×	1.22
Q3 under 69.5	74.1%	71.8%	91.4%	0.79×	1.39
Q3 over 59.5	70.7%	71.8%	41.0%	1.75×	1.39
Q3 under 67.5	65.8%	67.8%	87.0%	0.78×	1.48
Q3 over 61.5	62.0%	61.9%	32.3%	1.92×	1.61
Q3 under 65.5	56.7%	58.4%	82.2%	0.71×	1.71
Q3 over 63.5	52.7%	52.3%	24.1%	2.17×	1.91
Q3 under 64.5	52.0%	52.3%	79.2%	0.66×	1.91
Q3 over 64.5	48.0%	47.7%	20.8%	2.29×	2.10
Q3 under 63.5	47.3%	47.7%	75.9%	0.63×	2.10
Q3 over 65.5	43.3%	41.6%	17.8%	2.34×	2.40
Q3 under 61.5	38.0%	38.1%	67.7%	0.56×	2.63
Q3 over 67.5	34.2%	32.2%	13.0%	2.49×	3.10
Q3 under 59.5	29.3%	28.2%	59.0%	0.48×	3.55
Q3 over 69.5	25.9%	28.2%	8.6%	3.27×	3.55
Q3 under 56.5	18.4%	17.7%	45.0%	0.39×	5.66
Q3 over 72.5	15.8%	17.7%	4.4%	4.01×	5.66

Q4 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Miami Heat to win Q4	57.5%	52.1%	46.4%	1.12×	1.92
Utah Jazz to win Q4	37.8%	42.4%	48.3%	0.88×	2.36
Q4 tied	4.7%	5.2%	5.3%	0.98×	19.28

Q4 total 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Q4 under 69.5	83.6%	82.0%	94.2%	0.87×	1.22
Q4 over 53.5	80.7%	82.0%	55.7%	1.47×	1.22
Q4 under 66.5	73.6%	71.5%	90.4%	0.79×	1.40
Q4 over 56.5	69.9%	67.4%	42.8%	1.58×	1.48
Q4 under 64.5	65.6%	67.4%	86.3%	0.78×	1.48
Q4 over 58.5	61.4%	61.4%	33.8%	1.82×	1.63
Q4 under 62.5	56.8%	58.4%	80.4%	0.73×	1.71
Q4 over 60.5	52.4%	52.5%	25.8%	2.04×	1.91
Q4 under 61.5	52.2%	52.5%	77.5%	0.68×	1.91
Q4 under 60.5	47.6%	47.5%	74.2%	0.64×	2.11
Q4 over 61.5	47.8%	47.5%	22.5%	2.11×	2.11
Q4 over 62.5	43.2%	41.6%	19.6%	2.12×	2.40
Q4 under 58.5	38.6%	38.6%	66.2%	0.58×	2.59
Q4 over 64.5	34.4%	32.6%	13.7%	2.38×	3.07
Q4 under 56.5	30.1%	32.6%	57.2%	0.57×	3.07
Q4 over 66.5	26.4%	28.5%	9.6%	2.98×	3.51
Q4 under 53.5	19.3%	18.0%	44.3%	0.41×	5.56
Q4 over 69.5	16.4%	18.0%	5.8%	3.08×	5.56

Team total 44

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Utah Jazz under 132.5	81.2%	80.7%	91.2%	0.89×	1.24
Miami Heat over 120.5	80.3%	80.7%	27.3%	2.95×	1.24
Miami Heat under 140.5	80.4%	80.7%	98.2%	0.82×	1.24
Utah Jazz over 112.5	79.1%	75.1%	57.7%	1.30×	1.33
Utah Jazz under 129.5	73.6%	70.7%	87.2%	0.81×	1.41
Miami Heat over 123.5	72.5%	70.7%	20.5%	3.45×	1.41
Miami Heat under 137.5	72.5%	70.7%	97.0%	0.73×	1.41
Utah Jazz over 115.5	71.0%	70.7%	48.4%	1.46×	1.41
Utah Jazz under 127.5	67.8%	66.4%	83.5%	0.80×	1.51
Miami Heat over 125.5	66.5%	66.4%	16.6%	3.99×	1.51
Miami Heat under 135.5	66.6%	66.4%	95.8%	0.69×	1.51
Utah Jazz over 117.5	65.0%	61.2%	42.2%	1.45×	1.63
Utah Jazz under 125.5	61.5%	61.2%	79.1%	0.77×	1.63
Miami Heat over 127.5	60.1%	61.2%	13.1%	4.67×	1.63
Miami Heat under 133.5	60.1%	61.2%	94.6%	0.65×	1.63
Utah Jazz over 119.5	58.5%	57.1%	36.5%	1.56×	1.75
Utah Jazz under 123.5	54.9%	52.3%	74.4%	0.70×	1.91
Utah Jazz over 121.5	51.8%	52.3%	30.4%	1.72×	1.91
Utah Jazz under 122.5	51.6%	52.3%	71.8%	0.73×	1.91
Miami Heat over 129.5	53.4%	52.3%	10.0%	5.24×	1.91
Miami Heat under 131.5	53.4%	52.3%	92.6%	0.56×	1.91
Miami Heat over 130.5	50.0%	52.3%	8.5%	6.15×	1.91
Miami Heat under 130.5	50.0%	47.7%	91.5%	0.52×	2.09
Utah Jazz under 121.5	48.2%	47.7%	69.6%	0.69×	2.09
Utah Jazz over 122.5	48.4%	47.7%	28.2%	1.69×	2.09
Miami Heat under 129.5	46.6%	47.7%	90.0%	0.53×	2.09
Miami Heat over 131.5	46.6%	47.7%	7.4%	6.44×	2.09
Utah Jazz over 123.5	45.1%	47.7%	25.6%	1.87×	2.09
Utah Jazz under 119.5	41.5%	42.9%	63.5%	0.68×	2.33
Miami Heat under 127.5	39.9%	38.8%	86.9%	0.45×	2.58
Miami Heat over 133.5	39.9%	38.8%	5.4%	7.17×	2.58
Utah Jazz over 125.5	38.5%	38.8%	20.9%	1.85×	2.58
Utah Jazz under 117.5	35.0%	38.8%	57.8%	0.67×	2.58
Miami Heat under 125.5	33.5%	33.6%	83.4%	0.40×	2.98
Miami Heat over 135.5	33.4%	33.6%	4.2%	8.07×	2.98
Utah Jazz over 127.5	32.2%	33.6%	16.5%	2.04×	2.98
Utah Jazz under 115.5	29.0%	29.3%	51.6%	0.57×	3.42
Miami Heat under 123.5	27.5%	29.3%	79.5%	0.37×	3.42
Miami Heat over 137.5	27.5%	29.3%	3.0%	9.67×	3.42
Utah Jazz over 129.5	26.4%	29.3%	12.8%	2.28×	3.42
Utah Jazz under 112.5	20.9%	24.9%	42.3%	0.59×	4.02
Miami Heat under 120.5	19.7%	19.3%	72.7%	0.27×	5.18
Miami Heat over 140.5	19.6%	19.3%	1.8%	10.74×	5.18
Utah Jazz over 132.5	18.8%	19.3%	8.8%	2.19×	5.18

Total points 30

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 232.5 points	86.2%	85.0%	40.6%	2.09×	1.18
Under 272.5 points	86.1%	85.0%	98.2%	0.87×	1.18
Under 267.5 points	79.2%	75.6%	97.1%	0.78×	1.32
Over 237.5 points	79.3%	75.6%	30.7%	2.46×	1.32
Under 262.5 points	70.6%	70.8%	95.3%	0.74×	1.41
Over 242.5 points	70.8%	70.8%	23.2%	3.06×	1.41
Under 259.5 points	64.8%	61.5%	93.6%	0.66×	1.63
Over 245.5 points	64.9%	61.5%	19.1%	3.21×	1.63
Over 247.5 points	60.8%	61.5%	16.7%	3.68×	1.63
Under 257.5 points	60.6%	61.5%	92.3%	0.67×	1.63
Over 249.5 points	56.6%	56.5%	14.7%	3.85×	1.77
Under 255.5 points	56.4%	56.5%	90.8%	0.62×	1.77
Over 251.5 points	52.2%	52.3%	12.8%	4.08×	1.91
Under 253.5 points	52.1%	52.3%	89.1%	0.59×	1.91
Over 252.5 points	50.1%	52.3%	11.9%	4.40×	1.91
Under 252.5 points	49.9%	47.7%	88.1%	0.54×	2.10
Under 251.5 points	47.8%	47.7%	87.2%	0.55×	2.10
Over 253.5 points	47.9%	47.7%	10.9%	4.39×	2.10
Under 249.5 points	43.4%	43.5%	85.3%	0.51×	2.30
Over 255.5 points	43.6%	43.5%	9.2%	4.73×	2.30
Under 247.5 points	39.2%	38.5%	83.3%	0.46×	2.60
Over 257.5 points	39.4%	38.5%	7.7%	4.98×	2.60
Over 259.5 points	35.2%	38.5%	6.4%	6.04×	2.60
Under 245.5 points	35.1%	38.5%	80.9%	0.48×	2.60
Over 262.5 points	29.4%	29.2%	4.7%	6.24×	3.43
Under 242.5 points	29.2%	29.2%	76.8%	0.38×	3.43
Over 267.5 points	20.8%	24.4%	2.9%	8.36×	4.10
Under 237.5 points	20.7%	24.4%	69.3%	0.35×	4.10
Over 272.5 points	13.9%	15.0%	1.8%	8.41×	6.68
Under 232.5 points	13.8%	15.0%	59.4%	0.25×	6.68

Win both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Miami Heat to win both halves	37.6%	36.3%	17.8%	2.03×	2.76
Utah Jazz to win both halves	9.6%	8.9%	25.2%	0.35×	11.30

Winning margin 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Miami Heat by 1-5	13.1%	12.3%	12.3%	1.01×	8.11
Miami Heat by 6-10	14.0%	12.3%	12.3%	1.00×	8.11
Miami Heat by 11-15	13.3%	12.3%	8.0%	1.54×	8.11
Miami Heat by 26+	11.9%	12.3%	3.9%	3.19×	8.11
Utah Jazz by 1-5	10.4%	12.3%	12.8%	0.96×	8.11
Miami Heat by 16-20	11.2%	12.3%	4.9%	2.54×	8.11
Miami Heat by 21-25	8.4%	7.5%	3.0%	2.45×	13.40
Utah Jazz by 6-10	7.5%	7.5%	13.9%	0.54×	13.40
Utah Jazz by 11-15	4.9%	2.0%	10.8%	0.19×	49.29
Utah Jazz by 16-20	2.8%	2.0%	7.3%	0.28×	49.30
Utah Jazz by 21-25	1.4%	2.0%	4.7%	0.43×	49.32
Utah Jazz by 26+	1.0%	2.0%	6.2%	0.33×	49.32

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