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Utah Valley Wolverines v East Carolina Pirates — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 21 November 2026 · NCAAB · 2027

NCAAB results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

nba-normal No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.
Utah Valley Wolverines win
88.2%
Draw
0.0%
East Carolina Pirates win
11.8%

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
nba-normal 81.88–69.52 82-70 0% 50% 0%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

Century marks 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Utah Valley Wolverines to score 100+ 3.6% 0.4% 3.4% 0.10× 282.65
Utah Valley Wolverines to score 110+ 0.2% 0.4% 0.7% 0.52× 283.31
Utah Valley Wolverines to score 120+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 4.87× 283.35
Utah Valley Wolverines to score 130+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 19.47× 283.36
East Carolina Pirates to score 100+ 0.1% 0.4% 1.1% 0.33× 283.34
East Carolina Pirates to score 110+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 1.95× 283.36
East Carolina Pirates to score 120+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 12.98× 283.36
East Carolina Pirates to score 130+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 38.95× 283.36
Both sides to score 100+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% 0.87× 283.35
H1 result 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Utah Valley Wolverines to win H1 73.6% 73.0% 57.9% 1.26× 1.37
Utah Valley Wolverines to win H1 73.5% 73.0% 57.9% 1.26× 1.37
East Carolina Pirates to win H1 22.8% 21.4% 38.2% 0.56× 4.68
East Carolina Pirates to win H1 22.8% 21.4% 38.2% 0.56× 4.68
H1 tied 3.6% 3.9% 3.9% 0.99× 25.86
H1 tied 3.6% 3.9% 3.9% 0.99× 25.86
H1 total 40
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H1 over 59.5 87.3% 87.7% 80.7% 1.09× 1.14
H1 under 83.5 86.8% 87.7% 90.3% 0.97× 1.14
H1 over 63.5 78.5% 77.4% 69.0% 1.12× 1.29
H1 under 79.5 77.8% 77.4% 83.1% 0.93× 1.29
H1 over 63.5 77.7% 77.4% 69.0% 1.12× 1.29
H1 under 79.5 77.1% 77.4% 83.1% 0.93× 1.29
H1 over 66.5 69.0% 67.4% 58.2% 1.16× 1.48
H1 under 76.5 68.3% 67.4% 75.5% 0.89× 1.48
H1 over 66.5 68.5% 67.4% 58.2% 1.16× 1.48
H1 under 76.5 67.7% 67.4% 75.5% 0.89× 1.48
H1 over 68.5 61.9% 62.7% 50.7% 1.24× 1.59
H1 under 74.5 61.1% 62.7% 69.6% 0.90× 1.59
H1 over 68.5 61.5% 62.7% 50.7% 1.24× 1.59
H1 under 74.5 60.7% 62.7% 69.6% 0.90× 1.59
H1 over 70.5 54.3% 52.6% 43.5% 1.21× 1.90
H1 over 70.5 54.2% 52.6% 43.5% 1.21× 1.90
H1 under 72.5 53.5% 52.6% 63.3% 0.83× 1.90
H1 under 72.5 53.3% 52.6% 63.3% 0.83× 1.90
H1 over 71.5 50.4% 52.6% 40.0% 1.32× 1.90
H1 over 71.5 50.4% 52.6% 40.0% 1.32× 1.90
H1 under 71.5 49.6% 47.4% 60.0% 0.79× 2.11
H1 under 71.5 49.6% 47.4% 60.0% 0.79× 2.11
H1 over 72.5 46.5% 47.4% 36.7% 1.29× 2.11
H1 over 72.5 46.7% 47.4% 36.7% 1.29× 2.11
H1 under 70.5 45.7% 47.4% 56.5% 0.84× 2.11
H1 under 70.5 45.9% 47.4% 56.5% 0.84× 2.11
H1 over 74.5 39.3% 37.3% 30.4% 1.23× 2.68
H1 under 68.5 38.1% 37.3% 49.3% 0.76× 2.68
H1 over 74.5 38.9% 37.3% 30.4% 1.23× 2.68
H1 under 68.5 38.5% 37.3% 49.3% 0.76× 2.68
H1 over 76.5 32.3% 32.6% 24.5% 1.33× 3.07
H1 under 66.5 31.0% 32.6% 41.8% 0.78× 3.07
H1 over 76.5 31.7% 32.6% 24.5% 1.33× 3.07
H1 under 66.5 31.5% 32.6% 41.8% 0.78× 3.07
H1 over 79.5 22.2% 22.6% 16.9% 1.34× 4.43
H1 under 63.5 22.3% 22.6% 31.0% 0.73× 4.43
H1 over 79.5 22.9% 22.6% 16.9% 1.34× 4.43
H1 under 63.5 21.5% 22.6% 31.0% 0.73× 4.43
H1 under 59.5 12.7% 12.3% 19.3% 0.64× 8.14
H1 over 83.5 13.2% 12.3% 9.7% 1.26× 8.14
H2 result 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Utah Valley Wolverines to win H2 75.3% 73.9% 56.9% 1.30× 1.35
Utah Valley Wolverines to win H2 75.2% 73.9% 57.5% 1.29× 1.35
East Carolina Pirates to win H2 21.4% 26.8% 38.5% 0.70× 3.73
East Carolina Pirates to win H2 21.4% 26.8% 38.9% 0.69× 3.73
H2 tied 3.4% 3.9% 4.2% 0.95× 25.36
H2 tied 3.4% 3.9% 4.1% 0.97× 25.36
H2 total 40
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H2 under 92.5 87.0% 85.2% 86.9% 0.98× 1.17
H2 over 68.5 84.3% 81.8% 77.5% 1.06× 1.22
H2 under 88.5 78.6% 75.8% 83.3% 0.91× 1.32
H2 under 88.5 78.0% 75.8% 79.8% 0.95× 1.32
H2 over 72.5 74.8% 72.2% 63.4% 1.14× 1.39
H2 over 72.5 74.2% 72.2% 65.9% 1.09× 1.39
H2 under 85.5 69.8% 66.4% 76.8% 0.86× 1.51
H2 under 85.5 69.3% 66.4% 73.3% 0.91× 1.51
H2 over 75.5 65.3% 66.4% 53.4% 1.24× 1.51
H2 over 75.5 64.9% 61.6% 56.4% 1.09× 1.62
H2 under 83.5 63.2% 61.6% 71.6% 0.86× 1.62
H2 under 83.5 62.8% 61.6% 68.0% 0.91× 1.62
H2 over 77.5 58.4% 57.3% 47.0% 1.22× 1.74
H2 over 77.5 58.1% 57.3% 50.2% 1.14× 1.74
H2 under 81.5 56.1% 57.3% 65.8% 0.87× 1.74
H2 under 81.5 55.9% 57.3% 62.2% 0.92× 1.74
H2 under 80.5 52.5% 52.4% 62.9% 0.83× 1.91
H2 under 80.5 52.4% 52.4% 59.2% 0.88× 1.91
H2 over 79.5 51.1% 52.4% 40.3% 1.30× 1.91
H2 over 79.5 51.1% 52.4% 43.8% 1.20× 1.91
H2 under 79.5 48.9% 47.6% 59.8% 0.80× 2.10
H2 under 79.5 48.9% 47.6% 56.2% 0.85× 2.10
H2 over 80.5 47.5% 47.6% 37.1% 1.28× 2.10
H2 over 80.5 47.6% 47.6% 40.8% 1.17× 2.10
H2 over 81.5 43.9% 42.7% 34.2% 1.25× 2.34
H2 over 81.5 44.1% 42.7% 37.8% 1.13× 2.34
H2 under 77.5 41.6% 42.7% 53.0% 0.80× 2.34
H2 under 77.5 41.9% 42.7% 49.8% 0.86× 2.34
H2 over 83.5 36.8% 38.4% 28.4% 1.35× 2.61
H2 over 83.5 37.2% 38.4% 32.0% 1.20× 2.61
H2 under 75.5 35.1% 38.4% 43.6% 0.88× 2.61
H2 under 75.5 34.7% 33.6% 46.6% 0.72× 2.97
H2 over 85.5 30.7% 33.6% 26.7% 1.26× 2.97
H2 over 85.5 30.2% 33.6% 23.2% 1.45× 2.97
H2 under 72.5 25.8% 27.8% 34.1% 0.82× 3.59
H2 under 72.5 25.2% 27.8% 36.6% 0.76× 3.59
H2 over 88.5 21.4% 24.2% 16.7% 1.45× 4.13
H2 over 88.5 22.1% 24.2% 20.2% 1.20× 4.13
H2 under 68.5 15.7% 18.2% 22.5% 0.81× 5.50
H2 over 92.5 13.0% 14.8% 13.1% 1.13× 6.76
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Utah Valley Wolverines leading at half time 73.5% 73.5% 57.9% 1.27× 1.36
East Carolina Pirates leading at half time 22.8% 21.0% 38.2% 0.55× 4.77
Level at half time 3.6% 3.8% 3.9% 0.97× 26.41
Handicap 60
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Utah Valley Wolverines +14.5 99.4% 97.4% 92.2% 1.06× 1.03
Utah Valley Wolverines +16.5 99.6% 97.4% 94.0% 1.04× 1.03
Utah Valley Wolverines +18.5 99.8% 97.4% 95.4% 1.02× 1.03
Utah Valley Wolverines +20.5 99.9% 97.4% 96.5% 1.01× 1.03
Utah Valley Wolverines +6.5 96.0% 97.4% 78.8% 1.24× 1.03
Utah Valley Wolverines +7.5 96.7% 97.4% 81.0% 1.20× 1.03
Utah Valley Wolverines +8.5 97.4% 97.4% 83.3% 1.17× 1.03
Utah Valley Wolverines +9.5 97.9% 97.4% 85.3% 1.14× 1.03
Utah Valley Wolverines +10.5 98.3% 97.4% 87.2% 1.12× 1.03
Utah Valley Wolverines +12.5 99.0% 97.4% 89.9% 1.08× 1.03
Utah Valley Wolverines +5.5 95.1% 97.4% 76.4% 1.28× 1.03
Utah Valley Wolverines +3.5 92.9% 91.1% 70.8% 1.29× 1.10
Utah Valley Wolverines +4.5 94.1% 91.1% 73.7% 1.24× 1.10
Utah Valley Wolverines +2.5 91.5% 91.1% 68.0% 1.34× 1.10
Utah Valley Wolverines +1.5 90.0% 85.9% 65.4% 1.31× 1.16
Utah Valley Wolverines −1.5 86.1% 85.9% 60.8% 1.41× 1.16
Utah Valley Wolverines −2.5 83.7% 81.1% 57.7% 1.41× 1.23
Utah Valley Wolverines −3.5 81.1% 81.1% 54.1% 1.50× 1.23
Utah Valley Wolverines −4.5 78.3% 76.5% 50.7% 1.51× 1.31
East Carolina Pirates +20.5 77.2% 76.5% 86.5% 0.88× 1.31
Utah Valley Wolverines −5.5 75.3% 76.5% 47.0% 1.63× 1.31
Utah Valley Wolverines −6.5 72.1% 71.6% 44.3% 1.62× 1.40
East Carolina Pirates +18.5 71.1% 71.6% 83.9% 0.85× 1.40
Utah Valley Wolverines −7.5 68.8% 66.7% 41.3% 1.61× 1.50
Utah Valley Wolverines −8.5 65.3% 66.7% 38.5% 1.74× 1.50
East Carolina Pirates +16.5 64.4% 61.9% 80.7% 0.77× 1.62
Utah Valley Wolverines −9.5 61.7% 61.9% 35.5% 1.75× 1.62
Utah Valley Wolverines −10.5 58.0% 57.1% 32.6% 1.75× 1.75
East Carolina Pirates +14.5 57.1% 57.1% 77.2% 0.74× 1.75
Utah Valley Wolverines −12.5 50.4% 52.4% 27.6% 1.90× 1.91
East Carolina Pirates +12.5 49.6% 47.6% 72.4% 0.66× 2.10
Utah Valley Wolverines −14.5 42.9% 42.9% 22.8% 1.88× 2.33
East Carolina Pirates +10.5 42.1% 42.9% 67.4% 0.64× 2.33
East Carolina Pirates +9.5 38.3% 38.1% 64.5% 0.59× 2.63
Utah Valley Wolverines −16.5 35.6% 38.1% 19.3% 1.97× 2.63
East Carolina Pirates +8.5 34.7% 33.3% 61.5% 0.54× 3.01
East Carolina Pirates +7.5 31.2% 33.3% 58.7% 0.57× 3.01
East Carolina Pirates +6.5 27.9% 28.4% 55.7% 0.51× 3.53
Utah Valley Wolverines −18.5 28.9% 28.4% 16.1% 1.76× 3.53
East Carolina Pirates +5.5 24.7% 23.5% 53.0% 0.44× 4.25
East Carolina Pirates +4.5 21.7% 23.5% 49.3% 0.48× 4.25
Utah Valley Wolverines −20.5 22.8% 23.5% 13.5% 1.75× 4.25
East Carolina Pirates +3.5 18.9% 18.9% 45.9% 0.41× 5.29
East Carolina Pirates +2.5 16.3% 18.9% 42.3% 0.45× 5.30
East Carolina Pirates +1.5 13.9% 14.1% 39.2% 0.36× 7.09
East Carolina Pirates −1.5 10.0% 14.1% 34.6% 0.41× 7.09
East Carolina Pirates −2.5 8.5% 8.9% 32.0% 0.28× 11.25
East Carolina Pirates −3.5 7.1% 8.9% 29.3% 0.30× 11.25
East Carolina Pirates −4.5 5.9% 8.9% 26.3% 0.34× 11.25
East Carolina Pirates −5.5 4.9% 2.6% 23.6% 0.11× 38.72
East Carolina Pirates −6.5 4.0% 2.6% 21.2% 0.12× 38.72
East Carolina Pirates −7.5 3.3% 2.6% 19.0% 0.14× 38.73
East Carolina Pirates −8.5 2.6% 2.6% 16.7% 0.16× 38.73
East Carolina Pirates −9.5 2.1% 2.6% 14.7% 0.18× 38.73
East Carolina Pirates −10.5 1.7% 2.6% 12.8% 0.20× 38.73
East Carolina Pirates −12.5 1.0% 2.6% 10.1% 0.26× 38.74
East Carolina Pirates −14.5 0.6% 2.6% 7.8% 0.33× 38.74
East Carolina Pirates −16.5 0.4% 2.6% 6.0% 0.43× 38.74
East Carolina Pirates −18.5 0.2% 2.6% 4.6% 0.57× 38.74
East Carolina Pirates −20.5 0.1% 2.6% 3.5% 0.75× 38.74
Highest scoring half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H2 highest scoring 79.8% 71.6% 70.4% 1.02× 1.40
2nd half highest scoring 78.2% 71.6% 72.5% 0.99× 1.40
1st half highest scoring 21.8% 28.4% 27.5% 1.03× 3.53
H1 highest scoring 20.2% 28.4% 29.6% 0.96× 3.53
HT/FT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Utah Valley Wolverines at HT / Utah Valley Wolverines at FT 69.6% 68.3% 48.6% 1.41× 1.46
East Carolina Pirates at HT / Utah Valley Wolverines at FT 15.6% 15.4% 12.4% 1.25× 6.47
East Carolina Pirates at HT / East Carolina Pirates at FT 7.3% 8.3% 25.8% 0.32× 12.09
Utah Valley Wolverines at HT / East Carolina Pirates at FT 3.9% 2.1% 9.3% 0.22× 47.73
Level at HT / Utah Valley Wolverines at FT 3.0% 2.1% 2.3% 0.92× 47.74
Level at HT / East Carolina Pirates at FT 0.6% 2.1% 1.6% 1.28× 47.78
Moneyline 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Utah Valley Wolverines to win 88.2% 85.5% 63.2% 1.35× 1.17
East Carolina Pirates to win 11.8% 14.5% 36.8% 0.39× 6.92
Odd/Even 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Utah Valley Wolverines even 50.0% 50.5% 50.1% 1.01× 1.98
East Carolina Pirates even 50.0% 50.5% 50.4% 1.00× 1.98
Total points odd 51.0% 50.5% 51.6% 0.98× 1.98
Utah Valley Wolverines odd 50.0% 49.5% 49.9% 0.99× 2.02
East Carolina Pirates odd 50.0% 49.5% 49.6% 1.00× 2.02
Total points even 49.0% 49.5% 48.4% 1.02× 2.02
Overtime 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
No overtime 94.7% 94.0% 94.2% 1.00× 1.06
Match to go to overtime 5.3% 6.0% 5.8% 1.04× 16.66
Team total 44
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Utah Valley Wolverines under 92.5 86.0% 83.9% 90.8% 0.92× 1.19
East Carolina Pirates over 59.5 85.1% 83.9% 84.5% 0.99× 1.19
East Carolina Pirates under 79.5 85.5% 83.9% 76.3% 1.10× 1.19
Utah Valley Wolverines over 72.5 83.6% 80.7% 60.8% 1.33× 1.24
Utah Valley Wolverines under 89.5 78.0% 75.1% 86.5% 0.87× 1.33
East Carolina Pirates over 62.5 76.6% 75.1% 76.6% 0.98× 1.33
East Carolina Pirates under 76.5 77.2% 75.1% 67.9% 1.11× 1.33
Utah Valley Wolverines over 75.5 74.9% 70.7% 51.0% 1.39× 1.41
Utah Valley Wolverines under 87.5 71.4% 70.7% 82.8% 0.85× 1.41
East Carolina Pirates under 74.5 70.4% 70.7% 61.7% 1.15× 1.41
East Carolina Pirates over 64.5 69.7% 66.4% 70.7% 0.94× 1.51
Utah Valley Wolverines over 77.5 67.9% 66.4% 44.6% 1.49× 1.51
Utah Valley Wolverines under 85.5 64.0% 61.2% 78.6% 0.78× 1.63
East Carolina Pirates under 72.5 62.8% 61.2% 55.3% 1.11× 1.63
East Carolina Pirates over 66.5 62.0% 61.2% 64.7% 0.95× 1.63
Utah Valley Wolverines over 79.5 60.2% 61.2% 38.4% 1.59× 1.63
Utah Valley Wolverines under 83.5 56.1% 57.1% 73.5% 0.78× 1.75
East Carolina Pirates over 68.5 53.8% 52.3% 58.4% 0.89× 1.91
East Carolina Pirates under 70.5 54.6% 52.3% 48.7% 1.07× 1.91
Utah Valley Wolverines over 81.5 52.1% 52.3% 32.1% 1.63× 1.91
Utah Valley Wolverines under 82.5 52.0% 52.3% 70.8% 0.74× 1.91
East Carolina Pirates under 69.5 50.4% 52.3% 45.2% 1.16× 1.91
East Carolina Pirates over 69.5 49.6% 47.7% 54.8% 0.87× 2.09
Utah Valley Wolverines under 81.5 47.9% 47.7% 67.9% 0.70× 2.09
Utah Valley Wolverines over 82.5 48.0% 47.7% 29.2% 1.63× 2.09
East Carolina Pirates under 68.5 46.2% 47.7% 41.6% 1.15× 2.09
East Carolina Pirates over 70.5 45.4% 47.7% 51.4% 0.93× 2.09
Utah Valley Wolverines over 83.5 43.9% 42.9% 26.5% 1.62× 2.33
Utah Valley Wolverines under 79.5 39.8% 38.8% 61.6% 0.63× 2.58
East Carolina Pirates under 66.5 38.0% 38.8% 35.3% 1.10× 2.58
East Carolina Pirates over 72.5 37.2% 38.8% 44.7% 0.87× 2.58
Utah Valley Wolverines over 85.5 36.0% 38.8% 21.4% 1.81× 2.58
Utah Valley Wolverines under 77.5 32.1% 33.6% 55.4% 0.61× 2.98
East Carolina Pirates under 64.5 30.3% 33.6% 29.3% 1.15× 2.98
Utah Valley Wolverines over 87.5 28.6% 29.3% 17.2% 1.71× 3.42
East Carolina Pirates over 74.5 29.6% 29.3% 38.3% 0.76× 3.42
Utah Valley Wolverines under 75.5 25.1% 29.3% 49.0% 0.60× 3.42
East Carolina Pirates under 62.5 23.4% 24.9% 23.4% 1.06× 4.02
East Carolina Pirates over 76.5 22.8% 24.9% 32.1% 0.78× 4.02
Utah Valley Wolverines over 89.5 22.0% 24.9% 13.5% 1.84× 4.02
Utah Valley Wolverines under 72.5 16.4% 19.3% 39.2% 0.49× 5.18
East Carolina Pirates under 59.5 14.9% 16.1% 15.5% 1.04× 6.21
East Carolina Pirates over 79.5 14.5% 16.1% 23.7% 0.68× 6.21
Utah Valley Wolverines over 92.5 14.0% 16.1% 9.2% 1.75× 6.21
Total points 30
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 131.5 points 89.4% 85.0% 79.9% 1.06× 1.18
Under 171.5 points 89.5% 85.0% 89.7% 0.95× 1.18
Over 136.5 points 82.5% 80.6% 71.1% 1.13× 1.24
Under 166.5 points 82.7% 80.6% 84.3% 0.96× 1.24
Under 161.5 points 73.6% 70.8% 77.9% 0.91× 1.41
Over 141.5 points 73.2% 70.8% 60.4% 1.17× 1.41
Over 144.5 points 66.7% 65.9% 54.1% 1.22× 1.52
Under 158.5 points 67.1% 65.9% 73.3% 0.90× 1.52
Over 146.5 points 62.1% 61.5% 49.8% 1.23× 1.63
Under 156.5 points 62.4% 61.5% 69.8% 0.88× 1.63
Over 148.5 points 57.3% 56.5% 45.7% 1.24× 1.77
Under 154.5 points 57.6% 56.5% 66.4% 0.85× 1.77
Over 150.5 points 52.3% 52.3% 41.6% 1.26× 1.91
Under 152.5 points 52.7% 52.3% 62.7% 0.84× 1.91
Under 151.5 points 50.2% 52.3% 60.6% 0.86× 1.91
Over 151.5 points 49.8% 47.7% 39.4% 1.21× 2.10
Under 150.5 points 47.7% 47.7% 58.4% 0.82× 2.10
Over 152.5 points 47.3% 47.7% 37.4% 1.28× 2.10
Under 148.5 points 42.7% 43.5% 54.3% 0.80× 2.30
Over 154.5 points 42.4% 43.5% 33.6% 1.29× 2.30
Under 146.5 points 37.9% 38.5% 50.2% 0.77× 2.60
Over 156.5 points 37.6% 38.5% 30.2% 1.28× 2.60
Under 144.5 points 33.3% 34.1% 45.9% 0.74× 2.93
Over 158.5 points 32.9% 34.1% 26.7% 1.28× 2.93
Under 141.5 points 26.8% 29.2% 39.6% 0.74× 3.43
Over 161.5 points 26.4% 29.2% 22.1% 1.32× 3.43
Under 136.5 points 17.5% 19.4% 28.9% 0.67× 5.15
Over 166.5 points 17.3% 19.4% 15.7% 1.23× 5.15
Under 131.5 points 10.6% 15.0% 20.1% 0.75× 6.69
Over 171.5 points 10.5% 15.0% 10.3% 1.45× 6.69
Win both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Utah Valley Wolverines to win both halves 52.8% 50.4% 33.2% 1.52× 1.98
East Carolina Pirates to win both halves 2.9% 3.0% 14.5% 0.20× 33.66
Winning margin 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Utah Valley Wolverines by 11-15 18.8% 16.8% 11.6% 1.45× 5.97
Utah Valley Wolverines by 6-10 17.3% 16.8% 14.4% 1.16× 5.97
Utah Valley Wolverines by 16-20 16.4% 16.8% 7.6% 2.20× 5.97
Utah Valley Wolverines by 1-5 12.9% 12.3% 16.2% 0.76× 8.11
Utah Valley Wolverines by 21-25 11.6% 12.3% 5.6% 2.22× 8.11
Utah Valley Wolverines by 26+ 11.2% 12.3% 7.9% 1.56× 8.11
East Carolina Pirates by 1-5 6.9% 7.5% 13.2% 0.57× 13.40
East Carolina Pirates by 6-10 3.2% 2.0% 10.8% 0.19× 49.30
East Carolina Pirates by 11-15 1.2% 2.0% 6.1% 0.34× 49.32
East Carolina Pirates by 16-20 0.4% 2.0% 3.3% 0.61× 49.32
East Carolina Pirates by 21-25 0.1% 2.0% 1.9% 1.06× 49.33
East Carolina Pirates by 26+ 0.0% 2.0% 1.6% 1.30× 49.33
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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