Virginia Cavaliers v James Madison Dukes — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Thursday 19 November 2026 · NCAAW · 2027
NCAAW results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
nba-normal No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Virginia Cavaliers win
59.1%
Draw
0.0%
James Madison Dukes win
40.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| nba-normal | 72.30–69.79 | 72-70 0% | 49% | 0% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it.
Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits
from what that selection normally does in this league.
To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the
Radar.
All markets
Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.
Century marks 9
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia Cavaliers to score 100+ | 0.2% | 0.4% | 1.8% | 0.20× | 283.31 |
| Virginia Cavaliers to score 110+ | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.64× | 283.36 |
| Virginia Cavaliers to score 120+ | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 2.91× | 283.36 |
| Virginia Cavaliers to score 130+ | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 7.58× | 283.36 |
| James Madison Dukes to score 100+ | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.72× | 283.34 |
| James Madison Dukes to score 110+ | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 4.74× | 283.36 |
| James Madison Dukes to score 120+ | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 18.95× | 283.36 |
| James Madison Dukes to score 130+ | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 37.89× | 283.36 |
| Both sides to score 100+ | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 6.32× | 283.36 |
H1 result 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia Cavaliers to win H1 | 53.4% | 51.9% | 56.4% | 0.92× | 1.93 |
| James Madison Dukes to win H1 | 42.2% | 42.7% | 39.9% | 1.07× | 2.34 |
| H1 tied | 4.4% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 1.05× | 25.86 |
H1 total 22
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H1 under 80.5 | 89.3% | 87.7% | 94.9% | 0.92× | 1.14 |
| H1 over 56.5 | 86.7% | 87.7% | 68.2% | 1.29× | 1.14 |
| H1 under 76.5 | 80.2% | 82.5% | 90.2% | 0.91× | 1.21 |
| H1 over 60.5 | 76.4% | 77.4% | 53.9% | 1.44× | 1.29 |
| H1 under 73.5 | 71.1% | 73.5% | 85.6% | 0.86× | 1.36 |
| H1 over 63.5 | 66.5% | 67.4% | 42.9% | 1.57× | 1.48 |
| H1 under 71.5 | 64.0% | 62.7% | 81.4% | 0.77× | 1.59 |
| H1 over 65.5 | 59.0% | 58.2% | 36.1% | 1.61× | 1.72 |
| H1 under 69.5 | 56.5% | 58.2% | 76.2% | 0.76× | 1.72 |
| H1 under 68.5 | 52.6% | 52.6% | 73.5% | 0.72× | 1.90 |
| H1 over 67.5 | 51.3% | 52.6% | 29.6% | 1.78× | 1.90 |
| H1 under 67.5 | 48.7% | 47.4% | 70.4% | 0.67× | 2.11 |
| H1 over 68.5 | 47.4% | 47.4% | 26.5% | 1.79× | 2.11 |
| H1 over 69.5 | 43.5% | 41.8% | 23.8% | 1.75× | 2.39 |
| H1 under 65.5 | 41.0% | 41.8% | 63.9% | 0.65× | 2.39 |
| H1 over 71.5 | 36.0% | 37.3% | 18.6% | 2.01× | 2.68 |
| H1 under 63.5 | 33.5% | 32.6% | 57.1% | 0.57× | 3.07 |
| H1 over 73.5 | 28.9% | 26.5% | 14.4% | 1.84× | 3.77 |
| H1 under 60.5 | 23.6% | 22.6% | 46.1% | 0.49× | 4.43 |
| H1 over 76.5 | 19.8% | 17.5% | 9.8% | 1.79× | 5.72 |
| H1 under 56.5 | 13.3% | 12.3% | 31.8% | 0.39× | 8.14 |
| H1 over 80.5 | 10.7% | 12.3% | 5.1% | 2.39× | 8.14 |
H2 result 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia Cavaliers to win H2 | 53.8% | 51.2% | 56.0% | 0.91× | 1.95 |
| James Madison Dukes to win H2 | 42.0% | 43.5% | 40.6% | 1.07× | 2.30 |
| H2 tied | 4.3% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 1.16× | 25.35 |
H2 total 22
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H2 under 86.5 | 87.3% | 85.2% | 92.2% | 0.92× | 1.17 |
| H2 over 62.5 | 86.5% | 85.2% | 68.3% | 1.25× | 1.17 |
| H2 under 82.5 | 77.9% | 75.8% | 87.4% | 0.87× | 1.32 |
| H2 over 66.5 | 76.7% | 75.8% | 55.4% | 1.37× | 1.32 |
| H2 under 79.5 | 68.7% | 66.4% | 82.0% | 0.81× | 1.51 |
| H2 over 69.5 | 67.3% | 66.4% | 45.2% | 1.47× | 1.51 |
| H2 under 77.5 | 61.8% | 61.6% | 77.9% | 0.79× | 1.62 |
| H2 over 71.5 | 60.3% | 61.6% | 38.9% | 1.59× | 1.62 |
| H2 under 75.5 | 54.5% | 52.4% | 73.0% | 0.72× | 1.91 |
| H2 over 73.5 | 52.9% | 52.4% | 32.9% | 1.59× | 1.91 |
| H2 under 74.5 | 50.8% | 52.4% | 69.9% | 0.75× | 1.91 |
| H2 over 74.5 | 49.2% | 47.6% | 30.1% | 1.58× | 2.10 |
| H2 under 73.5 | 47.1% | 47.6% | 67.1% | 0.71× | 2.10 |
| H2 over 75.5 | 45.5% | 47.6% | 27.0% | 1.77× | 2.10 |
| H2 under 71.5 | 39.7% | 38.4% | 61.1% | 0.63× | 2.61 |
| H2 over 77.5 | 38.2% | 38.4% | 22.1% | 1.74× | 2.61 |
| H2 under 69.5 | 32.7% | 33.6% | 54.8% | 0.61× | 2.97 |
| H2 over 79.5 | 31.3% | 33.6% | 18.0% | 1.87× | 2.97 |
| H2 under 66.5 | 23.3% | 24.2% | 44.6% | 0.54× | 4.13 |
| H2 over 82.5 | 22.1% | 24.2% | 12.6% | 1.92× | 4.13 |
| H2 under 62.5 | 13.5% | 14.8% | 31.7% | 0.47× | 6.76 |
| H2 over 86.5 | 12.7% | 14.8% | 7.8% | 1.90× | 6.76 |
Half time 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia Cavaliers leading at half time | 53.4% | 51.9% | 56.4% | 0.92× | 1.93 |
| James Madison Dukes leading at half time | 42.2% | 42.8% | 39.9% | 1.07× | 2.33 |
| Level at half time | 4.4% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 1.03× | 26.40 |
Handicap 60
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia Cavaliers +18.5 | 96.8% | 97.4% | 91.1% | 1.07× | 1.03 |
| Virginia Cavaliers +20.5 | 97.9% | 97.4% | 92.7% | 1.05× | 1.03 |
| Virginia Cavaliers +16.5 | 95.3% | 97.4% | 89.1% | 1.09× | 1.03 |
| James Madison Dukes +20.5 | 94.3% | 91.1% | 82.0% | 1.11× | 1.10 |
| Virginia Cavaliers +14.5 | 93.3% | 91.1% | 86.7% | 1.05× | 1.10 |
| Virginia Cavaliers +12.5 | 90.6% | 91.1% | 83.8% | 1.09× | 1.10 |
| James Madison Dukes +18.5 | 92.0% | 91.1% | 79.3% | 1.15× | 1.10 |
| James Madison Dukes +16.5 | 89.0% | 85.9% | 75.7% | 1.13× | 1.16 |
| Virginia Cavaliers +10.5 | 87.2% | 85.9% | 80.4% | 1.07× | 1.16 |
| Virginia Cavaliers +9.5 | 85.2% | 85.9% | 78.7% | 1.09× | 1.16 |
| James Madison Dukes +14.5 | 85.2% | 85.9% | 72.1% | 1.19× | 1.16 |
| Virginia Cavaliers +8.5 | 83.0% | 81.1% | 76.5% | 1.06× | 1.23 |
| Virginia Cavaliers +7.5 | 80.7% | 81.1% | 74.5% | 1.09× | 1.23 |
| James Madison Dukes +12.5 | 80.6% | 81.1% | 67.9% | 1.20× | 1.23 |
| Virginia Cavaliers +6.5 | 78.1% | 76.5% | 72.3% | 1.06× | 1.31 |
| Virginia Cavaliers +5.5 | 75.3% | 76.5% | 70.1% | 1.09× | 1.31 |
| James Madison Dukes +10.5 | 75.3% | 76.5% | 63.2% | 1.21× | 1.31 |
| Virginia Cavaliers +4.5 | 72.4% | 71.6% | 67.8% | 1.06× | 1.40 |
| James Madison Dukes +9.5 | 72.3% | 71.6% | 60.7% | 1.18× | 1.40 |
| Virginia Cavaliers +3.5 | 69.3% | 66.7% | 65.7% | 1.02× | 1.50 |
| James Madison Dukes +8.5 | 69.2% | 66.7% | 58.0% | 1.15× | 1.50 |
| Virginia Cavaliers +2.5 | 66.0% | 66.7% | 63.3% | 1.05× | 1.50 |
| James Madison Dukes +7.5 | 66.0% | 66.7% | 55.2% | 1.21× | 1.50 |
| Virginia Cavaliers +1.5 | 62.6% | 61.9% | 61.2% | 1.01× | 1.62 |
| James Madison Dukes +6.5 | 62.6% | 61.9% | 52.4% | 1.18× | 1.62 |
| James Madison Dukes +5.5 | 59.1% | 57.1% | 50.3% | 1.13× | 1.75 |
| Virginia Cavaliers −1.5 | 55.5% | 57.1% | 58.7% | 0.97× | 1.75 |
| James Madison Dukes +4.5 | 55.5% | 57.1% | 47.8% | 1.19× | 1.75 |
| Virginia Cavaliers −2.5 | 51.8% | 52.4% | 56.7% | 0.92× | 1.91 |
| James Madison Dukes +3.5 | 51.8% | 52.4% | 45.8% | 1.14× | 1.91 |
| James Madison Dukes +2.5 | 48.2% | 47.6% | 43.3% | 1.10× | 2.10 |
| Virginia Cavaliers −3.5 | 48.2% | 47.6% | 54.2% | 0.88× | 2.10 |
| James Madison Dukes +1.5 | 44.5% | 42.9% | 41.3% | 1.04× | 2.33 |
| Virginia Cavaliers −4.5 | 44.5% | 42.9% | 52.2% | 0.82× | 2.33 |
| Virginia Cavaliers −5.5 | 40.9% | 42.9% | 49.7% | 0.86× | 2.33 |
| James Madison Dukes −1.5 | 37.4% | 38.1% | 38.8% | 0.98× | 2.63 |
| Virginia Cavaliers −6.5 | 37.4% | 38.1% | 47.6% | 0.80× | 2.63 |
| James Madison Dukes −2.5 | 34.0% | 33.3% | 36.7% | 0.91× | 3.01 |
| Virginia Cavaliers −7.5 | 34.0% | 33.3% | 44.8% | 0.74× | 3.01 |
| James Madison Dukes −3.5 | 30.7% | 33.3% | 34.3% | 0.97× | 3.01 |
| Virginia Cavaliers −8.5 | 30.8% | 33.3% | 42.0% | 0.79× | 3.01 |
| James Madison Dukes −4.5 | 27.6% | 28.4% | 32.2% | 0.88× | 3.53 |
| Virginia Cavaliers −9.5 | 27.7% | 28.4% | 39.3% | 0.72× | 3.53 |
| James Madison Dukes −5.5 | 24.7% | 23.5% | 29.9% | 0.79× | 4.25 |
| Virginia Cavaliers −10.5 | 24.7% | 23.5% | 36.8% | 0.64× | 4.25 |
| James Madison Dukes −6.5 | 21.9% | 23.5% | 27.7% | 0.85× | 4.25 |
| James Madison Dukes −7.5 | 19.3% | 18.9% | 25.5% | 0.74× | 5.29 |
| Virginia Cavaliers −12.5 | 19.4% | 18.9% | 32.1% | 0.59× | 5.29 |
| James Madison Dukes −8.5 | 17.0% | 18.9% | 23.5% | 0.80× | 5.29 |
| James Madison Dukes −9.5 | 14.8% | 14.1% | 21.3% | 0.66× | 7.09 |
| Virginia Cavaliers −14.5 | 14.8% | 14.1% | 27.9% | 0.51× | 7.09 |
| James Madison Dukes −10.5 | 12.8% | 14.1% | 19.6% | 0.72× | 7.09 |
| Virginia Cavaliers −16.5 | 11.0% | 14.1% | 24.3% | 0.58× | 7.09 |
| James Madison Dukes −12.5 | 9.4% | 8.9% | 16.2% | 0.55× | 11.25 |
| Virginia Cavaliers −18.5 | 8.0% | 8.9% | 20.7% | 0.43× | 11.25 |
| James Madison Dukes −14.5 | 6.7% | 8.9% | 13.3% | 0.67× | 11.25 |
| Virginia Cavaliers −20.5 | 5.7% | 8.9% | 18.0% | 0.49× | 11.25 |
| James Madison Dukes −16.5 | 4.7% | 2.6% | 10.9% | 0.24× | 38.72 |
| James Madison Dukes −18.5 | 3.2% | 2.6% | 8.9% | 0.29× | 38.73 |
| James Madison Dukes −20.5 | 2.1% | 2.6% | 7.3% | 0.35× | 38.73 |
Highest scoring half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd half highest scoring | 73.7% | 67.1% | 66.7% | 1.01× | 1.49 |
| 1st half highest scoring | 26.3% | 32.9% | 33.3% | 0.99× | 3.04 |
Highest scoring quarter 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 highest scoring | 33.2% | 31.9% | 31.3% | 1.02× | 3.14 |
| Q4 highest scoring | 35.0% | 28.6% | 31.2% | 0.92× | 3.50 |
| Q1 highest scoring | 16.7% | 18.3% | 19.6% | 0.94× | 5.46 |
| Q2 highest scoring | 15.1% | 18.3% | 17.9% | 1.02× | 5.46 |
HT/FT 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia Cavaliers at HT / Virginia Cavaliers at FT | 42.1% | 41.0% | 48.3% | 0.85× | 2.44 |
| James Madison Dukes at HT / James Madison Dukes at FT | 27.7% | 29.6% | 30.1% | 0.98× | 3.38 |
| James Madison Dukes at HT / Virginia Cavaliers at FT | 14.5% | 12.2% | 9.8% | 1.25× | 8.17 |
| Virginia Cavaliers at HT / James Madison Dukes at FT | 11.3% | 12.2% | 8.2% | 1.49× | 8.18 |
| Level at HT / Virginia Cavaliers at FT | 2.5% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.09× | 47.75 |
| Level at HT / James Madison Dukes at FT | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.20× | 47.76 |
Moneyline 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia Cavaliers to win | 59.1% | 55.2% | 59.9% | 0.92× | 1.81 |
| James Madison Dukes to win | 40.9% | 44.8% | 40.1% | 1.12× | 2.23 |
Odd/Even 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total points odd | 51.8% | 50.5% | 51.5% | 0.98× | 1.98 |
| Virginia Cavaliers even | 50.0% | 50.5% | 49.4% | 1.02× | 1.98 |
| James Madison Dukes even | 50.0% | 50.5% | 50.1% | 1.01× | 1.98 |
| Virginia Cavaliers odd | 50.0% | 49.5% | 50.6% | 0.98× | 2.02 |
| James Madison Dukes odd | 50.0% | 49.5% | 49.9% | 0.99× | 2.02 |
| Total points even | 48.2% | 49.5% | 48.5% | 1.02× | 2.02 |
Overtime 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No overtime | 94.0% | 94.0% | 95.6% | 0.98× | 1.06 |
| Match to go to overtime | 6.0% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 1.35× | 16.66 |
Q1 result 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia Cavaliers to win Q1 | 50.8% | 52.6% | 54.7% | 0.96× | 1.90 |
| James Madison Dukes to win Q1 | 43.2% | 42.9% | 40.4% | 1.06× | 2.33 |
| Q1 tied | 6.1% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 1.11× | 18.31 |
Q1 total 18
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 under 42.5 | 89.2% | 87.4% | 93.6% | 0.93× | 1.14 |
| Q1 over 26.5 | 86.8% | 87.4% | 72.9% | 1.20× | 1.14 |
| Q1 under 39.5 | 78.7% | 76.9% | 87.5% | 0.88× | 1.30 |
| Q1 over 29.5 | 75.1% | 76.9% | 56.9% | 1.35× | 1.30 |
| Q1 under 37.5 | 69.2% | 67.6% | 81.6% | 0.83× | 1.48 |
| Q1 over 31.5 | 64.9% | 61.7% | 46.0% | 1.34× | 1.62 |
| Q1 under 35.5 | 58.2% | 58.6% | 73.2% | 0.80× | 1.71 |
| Q1 over 33.5 | 53.5% | 52.7% | 36.0% | 1.46× | 1.90 |
| Q1 under 34.5 | 52.4% | 52.7% | 68.5% | 0.77× | 1.90 |
| Q1 over 34.5 | 47.6% | 47.3% | 31.5% | 1.50× | 2.11 |
| Q1 under 33.5 | 46.5% | 47.3% | 64.0% | 0.74× | 2.11 |
| Q1 over 35.5 | 41.8% | 41.4% | 26.8% | 1.54× | 2.42 |
| Q1 under 31.5 | 35.1% | 38.3% | 54.0% | 0.71× | 2.61 |
| Q1 over 37.5 | 30.8% | 32.4% | 18.4% | 1.76× | 3.08 |
| Q1 under 29.5 | 24.9% | 23.1% | 43.1% | 0.54× | 4.33 |
| Q1 over 39.5 | 21.3% | 23.1% | 12.5% | 1.84× | 4.33 |
| Q1 under 26.5 | 13.2% | 12.6% | 27.1% | 0.46× | 7.95 |
| Q1 over 42.5 | 10.8% | 12.6% | 6.4% | 1.97× | 7.95 |
Q2 result 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia Cavaliers to win Q2 | 50.7% | 51.4% | 52.9% | 0.97× | 1.95 |
| James Madison Dukes to win Q2 | 43.3% | 43.9% | 41.5% | 1.06× | 2.28 |
| Q2 tied | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 1.07× | 16.49 |
Q2 total 18
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 over 25.5 | 88.8% | 87.3% | 76.2% | 1.15× | 1.15 |
| Q2 under 41.5 | 87.3% | 87.3% | 92.7% | 0.94× | 1.15 |
| Q2 over 28.5 | 78.0% | 76.8% | 61.2% | 1.26× | 1.30 |
| Q2 under 38.5 | 75.8% | 76.8% | 85.6% | 0.90× | 1.30 |
| Q2 over 30.5 | 68.3% | 67.4% | 49.9% | 1.35× | 1.49 |
| Q2 under 36.5 | 65.8% | 67.4% | 78.7% | 0.86× | 1.49 |
| Q2 over 32.5 | 57.2% | 58.2% | 39.2% | 1.48× | 1.72 |
| Q2 under 34.5 | 54.5% | 52.7% | 70.1% | 0.75× | 1.90 |
| Q2 over 33.5 | 51.4% | 52.7% | 34.4% | 1.53× | 1.90 |
| Q2 under 33.5 | 48.6% | 47.3% | 65.6% | 0.72× | 2.11 |
| Q2 over 34.5 | 45.5% | 47.3% | 29.9% | 1.58× | 2.11 |
| Q2 under 32.5 | 42.8% | 41.8% | 60.8% | 0.69× | 2.39 |
| Q2 over 36.5 | 34.2% | 32.6% | 21.3% | 1.53× | 3.06 |
| Q2 under 30.5 | 31.7% | 32.6% | 50.1% | 0.65× | 3.06 |
| Q2 over 38.5 | 24.2% | 23.2% | 14.4% | 1.61× | 4.31 |
| Q2 under 28.5 | 22.0% | 23.2% | 38.8% | 0.60× | 4.31 |
| Q2 over 41.5 | 12.7% | 12.7% | 7.3% | 1.72× | 7.89 |
| Q2 under 25.5 | 11.2% | 12.7% | 23.8% | 0.53× | 7.90 |
Q3 result 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia Cavaliers to win Q3 | 51.1% | 52.7% | 53.3% | 0.99× | 1.90 |
| James Madison Dukes to win Q3 | 43.0% | 42.3% | 41.8% | 1.01× | 2.37 |
| Q3 tied | 5.9% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 1.07× | 18.96 |
Q3 total 18
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 under 45.5 | 88.5% | 87.2% | 93.8% | 0.93× | 1.15 |
| Q3 over 29.5 | 86.2% | 87.2% | 71.8% | 1.21× | 1.15 |
| Q3 under 42.5 | 78.0% | 77.3% | 87.8% | 0.88× | 1.29 |
| Q3 over 32.5 | 74.5% | 71.8% | 56.1% | 1.28× | 1.39 |
| Q3 under 40.5 | 68.6% | 67.8% | 81.9% | 0.83× | 1.48 |
| Q3 over 34.5 | 64.6% | 62.0% | 45.4% | 1.37× | 1.61 |
| Q3 under 38.5 | 57.9% | 58.4% | 73.9% | 0.79× | 1.71 |
| Q3 over 36.5 | 53.5% | 52.3% | 35.4% | 1.48× | 1.91 |
| Q3 under 37.5 | 52.2% | 52.3% | 69.7% | 0.75× | 1.91 |
| Q3 over 37.5 | 47.8% | 47.7% | 30.3% | 1.58× | 2.10 |
| Q3 under 36.5 | 46.5% | 47.7% | 64.6% | 0.74× | 2.10 |
| Q3 over 38.5 | 42.1% | 41.6% | 26.1% | 1.59× | 2.40 |
| Q3 under 34.5 | 35.4% | 38.0% | 54.6% | 0.70× | 2.63 |
| Q3 over 40.5 | 31.4% | 32.2% | 18.1% | 1.78× | 3.11 |
| Q3 under 32.5 | 25.5% | 28.2% | 43.9% | 0.64× | 3.55 |
| Q3 over 42.5 | 22.0% | 22.7% | 12.2% | 1.87× | 4.40 |
| Q3 under 29.5 | 13.8% | 12.8% | 28.2% | 0.45× | 7.83 |
| Q3 over 45.5 | 11.5% | 12.8% | 6.2% | 2.06× | 7.83 |
Q4 result 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia Cavaliers to win Q4 | 51.1% | 51.4% | 52.8% | 0.97× | 1.95 |
| James Madison Dukes to win Q4 | 43.2% | 43.1% | 41.5% | 1.04× | 2.32 |
| Q4 tied | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 1.02× | 17.25 |
Q4 total 18
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 under 45.5 | 87.0% | 85.6% | 92.4% | 0.93× | 1.17 |
| Q4 over 29.5 | 85.1% | 85.6% | 70.8% | 1.21× | 1.17 |
| Q4 under 42.5 | 76.4% | 76.9% | 86.2% | 0.89× | 1.30 |
| Q4 over 32.5 | 73.7% | 71.5% | 55.4% | 1.29× | 1.40 |
| Q4 under 40.5 | 67.3% | 67.4% | 80.6% | 0.84× | 1.48 |
| Q4 over 34.5 | 64.2% | 61.4% | 45.6% | 1.35× | 1.63 |
| Q4 under 38.5 | 57.1% | 58.4% | 73.1% | 0.80× | 1.71 |
| Q4 over 36.5 | 53.7% | 52.5% | 35.7% | 1.47× | 1.91 |
| Q4 under 37.5 | 51.7% | 52.5% | 68.8% | 0.76× | 1.91 |
| Q4 over 37.5 | 48.3% | 47.5% | 31.2% | 1.52× | 2.11 |
| Q4 under 36.5 | 46.3% | 47.5% | 64.3% | 0.74× | 2.11 |
| Q4 over 38.5 | 42.9% | 41.6% | 26.9% | 1.55× | 2.40 |
| Q4 under 34.5 | 35.8% | 38.6% | 54.4% | 0.71× | 2.59 |
| Q4 over 40.5 | 32.7% | 32.6% | 19.4% | 1.68× | 3.07 |
| Q4 under 32.5 | 26.3% | 28.5% | 44.6% | 0.64× | 3.51 |
| Q4 over 42.5 | 23.6% | 23.1% | 13.8% | 1.67× | 4.33 |
| Q4 under 29.5 | 14.9% | 14.4% | 29.2% | 0.49× | 6.95 |
| Q4 over 45.5 | 13.0% | 14.4% | 7.6% | 1.88× | 6.95 |
Team total 44
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Madison Dukes under 80.5 | 87.5% | 83.9% | 91.0% | 0.92× | 1.19 |
| Virginia Cavaliers under 82.5 | 85.5% | 83.9% | 86.2% | 0.97× | 1.19 |
| Virginia Cavaliers over 62.5 | 84.8% | 80.7% | 64.3% | 1.26× | 1.24 |
| James Madison Dukes over 60.5 | 83.9% | 80.7% | 55.6% | 1.45× | 1.24 |
| James Madison Dukes under 77.5 | 79.6% | 75.1% | 87.2% | 0.86× | 1.33 |
| Virginia Cavaliers over 65.5 | 76.2% | 75.1% | 55.3% | 1.36× | 1.33 |
| Virginia Cavaliers under 79.5 | 77.1% | 75.1% | 81.3% | 0.92× | 1.33 |
| James Madison Dukes over 63.5 | 74.8% | 70.7% | 46.1% | 1.54× | 1.41 |
| James Madison Dukes under 75.5 | 73.1% | 70.7% | 84.1% | 0.84× | 1.41 |
| Virginia Cavaliers under 77.5 | 70.3% | 70.7% | 77.4% | 0.91× | 1.41 |
| Virginia Cavaliers over 67.5 | 69.4% | 66.4% | 48.7% | 1.36× | 1.51 |
| James Madison Dukes over 65.5 | 67.5% | 66.4% | 40.2% | 1.65× | 1.51 |
| James Madison Dukes under 73.5 | 65.6% | 66.4% | 80.2% | 0.83× | 1.51 |
| Virginia Cavaliers under 75.5 | 62.8% | 61.2% | 73.2% | 0.84× | 1.63 |
| Virginia Cavaliers over 69.5 | 61.7% | 61.2% | 42.6% | 1.44× | 1.63 |
| James Madison Dukes over 67.5 | 59.5% | 57.1% | 34.4% | 1.66× | 1.75 |
| James Madison Dukes under 71.5 | 57.4% | 57.1% | 76.1% | 0.75× | 1.75 |
| Virginia Cavaliers over 71.5 | 53.6% | 52.3% | 37.0% | 1.41× | 1.91 |
| Virginia Cavaliers under 73.5 | 54.7% | 52.3% | 68.5% | 0.76× | 1.91 |
| James Madison Dukes over 69.5 | 51.0% | 52.3% | 28.8% | 1.82× | 1.91 |
| James Madison Dukes under 70.5 | 53.2% | 52.3% | 73.7% | 0.71× | 1.91 |
| Virginia Cavaliers under 72.5 | 50.5% | 52.3% | 65.7% | 0.80× | 1.91 |
| Virginia Cavaliers over 72.5 | 49.5% | 47.7% | 34.3% | 1.39× | 2.09 |
| James Madison Dukes under 69.5 | 49.0% | 47.7% | 71.2% | 0.67× | 2.09 |
| James Madison Dukes over 70.5 | 46.8% | 47.7% | 26.3% | 1.81× | 2.09 |
| Virginia Cavaliers under 71.5 | 46.4% | 47.7% | 63.0% | 0.76× | 2.09 |
| Virginia Cavaliers over 73.5 | 45.3% | 47.7% | 31.5% | 1.51× | 2.09 |
| James Madison Dukes over 71.5 | 42.6% | 42.9% | 23.9% | 1.79× | 2.33 |
| James Madison Dukes under 67.5 | 40.5% | 42.9% | 65.6% | 0.65× | 2.33 |
| Virginia Cavaliers under 69.5 | 38.3% | 38.8% | 57.4% | 0.68× | 2.58 |
| Virginia Cavaliers over 75.5 | 37.2% | 38.8% | 26.8% | 1.45× | 2.58 |
| James Madison Dukes over 73.5 | 34.4% | 33.6% | 19.8% | 1.70× | 2.98 |
| James Madison Dukes under 65.5 | 32.5% | 33.6% | 59.8% | 0.56× | 2.98 |
| Virginia Cavaliers under 67.5 | 30.6% | 33.6% | 51.3% | 0.65× | 2.98 |
| Virginia Cavaliers over 77.5 | 29.7% | 29.3% | 22.6% | 1.30× | 3.42 |
| James Madison Dukes over 75.5 | 26.9% | 29.3% | 15.9% | 1.84× | 3.42 |
| James Madison Dukes under 63.5 | 25.2% | 29.3% | 53.9% | 0.54× | 3.42 |
| Virginia Cavaliers under 65.5 | 23.8% | 24.9% | 44.7% | 0.56× | 4.02 |
| Virginia Cavaliers over 79.5 | 22.9% | 24.9% | 18.7% | 1.33× | 4.02 |
| James Madison Dukes over 77.5 | 20.4% | 24.9% | 12.8% | 1.94× | 4.02 |
| James Madison Dukes under 60.5 | 16.1% | 19.3% | 44.4% | 0.44× | 5.18 |
| Virginia Cavaliers under 62.5 | 15.2% | 19.3% | 35.7% | 0.54× | 5.18 |
| Virginia Cavaliers over 82.5 | 14.5% | 16.1% | 13.8% | 1.17× | 6.21 |
| James Madison Dukes over 80.5 | 12.5% | 16.1% | 9.0% | 1.79× | 6.21 |
Total points 30
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 162.5 points | 91.1% | 88.8% | 95.0% | 0.94× | 1.13 |
| Over 122.5 points | 90.4% | 88.8% | 65.6% | 1.35× | 1.13 |
| Under 157.5 points | 84.6% | 80.6% | 92.1% | 0.87× | 1.24 |
| Over 127.5 points | 83.4% | 80.6% | 55.1% | 1.46× | 1.24 |
| Under 152.5 points | 75.4% | 75.6% | 88.1% | 0.86× | 1.32 |
| Over 132.5 points | 73.8% | 70.8% | 44.0% | 1.61× | 1.41 |
| Under 149.5 points | 68.8% | 65.9% | 84.9% | 0.78× | 1.52 |
| Over 135.5 points | 66.9% | 65.9% | 37.6% | 1.75× | 1.52 |
| Under 147.5 points | 64.0% | 61.5% | 82.3% | 0.75× | 1.63 |
| Over 137.5 points | 62.0% | 61.5% | 33.8% | 1.82× | 1.63 |
| Under 145.5 points | 58.9% | 56.5% | 79.5% | 0.71× | 1.77 |
| Over 139.5 points | 56.8% | 56.5% | 30.1% | 1.88× | 1.77 |
| Under 143.5 points | 53.7% | 52.3% | 76.7% | 0.68× | 1.91 |
| Over 141.5 points | 51.6% | 52.3% | 26.6% | 1.97× | 1.91 |
| Under 142.5 points | 51.0% | 52.3% | 75.1% | 0.70× | 1.91 |
| Over 142.5 points | 49.0% | 47.7% | 24.9% | 1.92× | 2.10 |
| Under 141.5 points | 48.4% | 47.7% | 73.4% | 0.65× | 2.10 |
| Over 143.5 points | 46.3% | 47.7% | 23.3% | 2.04× | 2.10 |
| Under 139.5 points | 43.2% | 43.5% | 69.9% | 0.62× | 2.30 |
| Over 145.5 points | 41.1% | 43.5% | 20.5% | 2.12× | 2.30 |
| Under 137.5 points | 38.0% | 38.5% | 66.2% | 0.58× | 2.60 |
| Over 147.5 points | 36.0% | 38.5% | 17.7% | 2.17× | 2.60 |
| Under 135.5 points | 33.1% | 34.1% | 62.4% | 0.55× | 2.93 |
| Over 149.5 points | 31.2% | 34.1% | 15.1% | 2.27× | 2.93 |
| Under 132.5 points | 26.2% | 29.2% | 56.0% | 0.52× | 3.43 |
| Over 152.5 points | 24.6% | 24.4% | 11.9% | 2.05× | 4.10 |
| Under 127.5 points | 16.6% | 19.4% | 44.9% | 0.43× | 5.15 |
| Over 157.5 points | 15.4% | 19.4% | 7.9% | 2.46× | 5.15 |
| Under 122.5 points | 9.6% | 11.2% | 34.4% | 0.32× | 8.96 |
| Over 162.5 points | 8.9% | 11.2% | 5.0% | 2.22× | 8.96 |
Win both halves 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia Cavaliers to win both halves | 25.9% | 27.2% | 36.0% | 0.75× | 3.68 |
| James Madison Dukes to win both halves | 15.1% | 18.8% | 20.4% | 0.93× | 5.31 |
Winning margin 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia Cavaliers by 1-5 | 18.2% | 16.8% | 10.2% | 1.64× | 5.97 |
| James Madison Dukes by 1-5 | 16.2% | 16.8% | 10.2% | 1.65× | 5.97 |
| Virginia Cavaliers by 6-10 | 16.2% | 16.8% | 12.9% | 1.30× | 5.97 |
| James Madison Dukes by 6-10 | 11.9% | 12.3% | 10.3% | 1.20× | 8.11 |
| Virginia Cavaliers by 11-15 | 11.9% | 12.3% | 10.8% | 1.14× | 8.11 |
| James Madison Dukes by 11-15 | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 0.98× | 13.40 |
| Virginia Cavaliers by 16-20 | 7.2% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 0.93× | 13.40 |
| James Madison Dukes by 16-20 | 3.5% | 2.0% | 4.8% | 0.43× | 49.30 |
| Virginia Cavaliers by 21-25 | 3.6% | 2.0% | 5.4% | 0.38× | 49.30 |
| James Madison Dukes by 21-25 | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 0.76× | 49.32 |
| Virginia Cavaliers by 26+ | 2.1% | 2.0% | 12.6% | 0.16× | 49.31 |
| James Madison Dukes by 26+ | 0.7% | 2.0% | 4.6% | 0.44× | 49.32 |