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Wake Forest Demon Deacons v App State Mountaineers — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Thursday 19 November 2026 · NCAAW · 2027

NCAAW results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

nba-normal No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons win
75.6%
Draw
0.0%
App State Mountaineers win
24.4%

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
nba-normal 66.17–58.48 66-58 0% 52% 0%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

Century marks 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wake Forest Demon Deacons to score 100+ 0.0% 0.4% 1.8% 0.20× 283.35
Wake Forest Demon Deacons to score 110+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.6% 0.64× 283.36
Wake Forest Demon Deacons to score 120+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 2.91× 283.36
Wake Forest Demon Deacons to score 130+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 7.58× 283.36
App State Mountaineers to score 100+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.5% 0.71× 283.36
App State Mountaineers to score 110+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 4.74× 283.36
App State Mountaineers to score 120+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 18.95× 283.36
App State Mountaineers to score 130+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 37.89× 283.36
Both sides to score 100+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 6.32× 283.36
H1 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wake Forest Demon Deacons to win H1 64.1% 62.3% 56.4% 1.10× 1.61
App State Mountaineers to win H1 31.8% 33.1% 39.9% 0.83× 3.02
H1 tied 4.2% 3.9% 3.7% 1.05× 25.86
H1 total 22
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H1 under 72.5 89.6% 87.7% 83.6% 1.05× 1.14
H1 over 48.5 87.1% 87.7% 88.8% 0.99× 1.14
H1 under 68.5 80.7% 82.5% 73.5% 1.12× 1.21
H1 over 52.5 76.7% 77.4% 79.6% 0.97× 1.29
H1 under 65.5 71.5% 73.5% 63.9% 1.15× 1.36
H1 over 55.5 66.5% 67.4% 71.0% 0.95× 1.48
H1 under 63.5 64.5% 62.7% 57.1% 1.10× 1.59
H1 over 57.5 59.0% 58.2% 64.8% 0.90× 1.72
H1 under 61.5 56.8% 58.2% 49.8% 1.17× 1.72
H1 under 60.5 52.9% 52.6% 46.1% 1.14× 1.90
H1 over 59.5 51.1% 52.6% 57.8% 0.91× 1.90
H1 under 59.5 48.9% 47.4% 42.2% 1.12× 2.11
H1 over 60.5 47.1% 47.4% 53.9% 0.88× 2.11
H1 over 61.5 43.2% 41.8% 50.2% 0.83× 2.39
H1 under 57.5 41.0% 41.8% 35.2% 1.19× 2.39
H1 over 63.5 35.5% 37.3% 42.9% 0.87× 2.68
H1 under 55.5 33.5% 32.6% 29.0% 1.12× 3.07
H1 over 65.5 28.5% 26.5% 36.1% 0.73× 3.77
H1 under 52.5 23.3% 22.6% 20.4% 1.11× 4.43
H1 over 68.5 19.3% 17.5% 26.5% 0.66× 5.72
H1 under 48.5 12.9% 12.3% 11.2% 1.10× 8.14
H1 over 72.5 10.4% 12.3% 16.4% 0.75× 8.14
H2 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wake Forest Demon Deacons to win H2 65.1% 62.7% 56.0% 1.12× 1.59
App State Mountaineers to win H2 31.0% 36.3% 40.6% 0.89× 2.76
H2 tied 4.0% 3.9% 3.4% 1.16× 25.36
H2 total 22
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H2 over 53.5 87.5% 85.2% 89.7% 0.95× 1.17
H2 under 77.5 87.3% 85.2% 77.9% 1.09× 1.17
H2 under 73.5 77.7% 75.8% 67.1% 1.13× 1.32
H2 over 57.5 77.7% 75.8% 82.2% 0.92× 1.32
H2 under 70.5 68.4% 66.4% 57.8% 1.15× 1.51
H2 over 60.5 68.2% 66.4% 74.5% 0.89× 1.51
H2 over 62.5 61.1% 61.6% 68.3% 0.90× 1.62
H2 under 68.5 61.4% 61.6% 51.3% 1.20× 1.62
H2 over 64.5 53.6% 52.4% 62.1% 0.84× 1.91
H2 under 66.5 54.0% 52.4% 44.6% 1.17× 1.91
H2 under 65.5 50.2% 52.4% 41.2% 1.27× 1.91
H2 over 65.5 49.8% 47.6% 58.8% 0.81× 2.10
H2 under 64.5 46.4% 47.6% 37.9% 1.26× 2.10
H2 over 66.5 46.0% 47.6% 55.4% 0.86× 2.10
H2 under 62.5 38.9% 38.4% 31.7% 1.21× 2.61
H2 over 68.5 38.6% 38.4% 48.7% 0.79× 2.61
H2 under 60.5 31.8% 33.6% 25.5% 1.32× 2.97
H2 over 70.5 31.6% 33.6% 42.2% 0.80× 2.97
H2 under 57.5 22.3% 24.2% 17.8% 1.36× 4.13
H2 over 73.5 22.3% 24.2% 32.9% 0.74× 4.13
H2 over 77.5 12.7% 14.8% 22.1% 0.67× 6.76
H2 under 53.5 12.5% 14.8% 10.3% 1.43× 6.76
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wake Forest Demon Deacons leading at half time 64.1% 62.5% 56.4% 1.11× 1.60
App State Mountaineers leading at half time 31.8% 32.7% 39.9% 0.82× 3.06
Level at half time 4.2% 3.8% 3.7% 1.03× 26.40
Handicap 60
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wake Forest Demon Deacons +20.5 99.4% 97.4% 92.7% 1.05× 1.03
Wake Forest Demon Deacons +12.5 96.3% 97.4% 83.8% 1.16× 1.03
Wake Forest Demon Deacons +14.5 97.6% 97.4% 86.7% 1.12× 1.03
Wake Forest Demon Deacons +16.5 98.4% 97.4% 89.1% 1.09× 1.03
Wake Forest Demon Deacons +18.5 99.0% 97.4% 91.1% 1.07× 1.03
Wake Forest Demon Deacons +10.5 94.6% 91.1% 80.4% 1.13× 1.10
Wake Forest Demon Deacons +8.5 92.3% 91.1% 76.5% 1.19× 1.10
Wake Forest Demon Deacons +9.5 93.5% 91.1% 78.7% 1.16× 1.10
Wake Forest Demon Deacons +7.5 90.9% 91.1% 74.5% 1.22× 1.10
Wake Forest Demon Deacons +6.5 89.3% 85.9% 72.3% 1.19× 1.16
Wake Forest Demon Deacons +5.5 87.5% 85.9% 70.1% 1.23× 1.16
App State Mountaineers +20.5 87.9% 85.9% 82.0% 1.05× 1.16
Wake Forest Demon Deacons +4.5 85.5% 85.9% 67.8% 1.27× 1.16
App State Mountaineers +18.5 83.8% 81.1% 79.3% 1.02× 1.23
Wake Forest Demon Deacons +3.5 83.4% 81.1% 65.7% 1.23× 1.23
Wake Forest Demon Deacons +2.5 81.0% 81.1% 63.3% 1.28× 1.23
App State Mountaineers +16.5 78.8% 76.5% 75.7% 1.01× 1.31
Wake Forest Demon Deacons +1.5 78.4% 76.5% 61.2% 1.25× 1.31
Wake Forest Demon Deacons −1.5 72.5% 71.6% 58.7% 1.22× 1.40
App State Mountaineers +14.5 73.1% 71.6% 72.1% 0.99× 1.40
Wake Forest Demon Deacons −2.5 69.2% 66.7% 56.7% 1.18× 1.50
App State Mountaineers +12.5 66.7% 66.7% 67.9% 0.98× 1.50
Wake Forest Demon Deacons −3.5 65.8% 66.7% 54.2% 1.23× 1.50
Wake Forest Demon Deacons −4.5 62.3% 61.9% 52.2% 1.19× 1.62
App State Mountaineers +10.5 59.7% 57.1% 63.2% 0.90× 1.75
Wake Forest Demon Deacons −5.5 58.7% 57.1% 49.7% 1.15× 1.75
App State Mountaineers +9.5 56.1% 57.1% 60.7% 0.94× 1.75
Wake Forest Demon Deacons −6.5 55.0% 57.1% 47.6% 1.20× 1.75
App State Mountaineers +8.5 52.4% 52.4% 58.0% 0.90× 1.91
Wake Forest Demon Deacons −7.5 51.3% 52.4% 44.8% 1.17× 1.91
App State Mountaineers +7.5 48.7% 47.6% 55.2% 0.86× 2.10
Wake Forest Demon Deacons −8.5 47.6% 47.6% 42.0% 1.13× 2.10
App State Mountaineers +6.5 45.0% 42.9% 52.4% 0.82× 2.33
Wake Forest Demon Deacons −9.5 43.9% 42.9% 39.3% 1.09× 2.33
App State Mountaineers +5.5 41.3% 42.9% 50.3% 0.85× 2.33
Wake Forest Demon Deacons −10.5 40.3% 42.9% 36.8% 1.17× 2.33
App State Mountaineers +4.5 37.7% 38.1% 47.8% 0.80× 2.63
App State Mountaineers +3.5 34.2% 33.3% 45.8% 0.73× 3.01
Wake Forest Demon Deacons −12.5 33.3% 33.3% 32.1% 1.04× 3.01
App State Mountaineers +2.5 30.8% 33.3% 43.3% 0.77× 3.01
App State Mountaineers +1.5 27.5% 28.4% 41.3% 0.69× 3.53
Wake Forest Demon Deacons −14.5 26.9% 28.4% 27.9% 1.02× 3.53
App State Mountaineers −1.5 21.6% 23.5% 38.8% 0.61× 4.25
Wake Forest Demon Deacons −16.5 21.2% 23.5% 24.3% 0.97× 4.25
App State Mountaineers −2.5 19.0% 18.9% 36.7% 0.52× 5.29
App State Mountaineers −3.5 16.6% 18.9% 34.3% 0.55× 5.30
Wake Forest Demon Deacons −18.5 16.2% 18.9% 20.7% 0.91× 5.30
App State Mountaineers −4.5 14.5% 14.1% 32.2% 0.44× 7.09
App State Mountaineers −5.5 12.5% 14.1% 29.9% 0.47× 7.09
Wake Forest Demon Deacons −20.5 12.1% 14.1% 18.0% 0.78× 7.09
App State Mountaineers −6.5 10.7% 14.1% 27.7% 0.51× 7.09
App State Mountaineers −7.5 9.1% 8.9% 25.5% 0.35× 11.25
App State Mountaineers −8.5 7.7% 8.9% 23.5% 0.38× 11.25
App State Mountaineers −9.5 6.5% 8.9% 21.3% 0.42× 11.25
App State Mountaineers −10.5 5.4% 8.9% 19.6% 0.45× 11.25
App State Mountaineers −12.5 3.7% 2.6% 16.2% 0.16× 38.73
App State Mountaineers −14.5 2.4% 2.6% 13.3% 0.19× 38.73
App State Mountaineers −16.5 1.6% 2.6% 10.9% 0.24× 38.73
App State Mountaineers −18.5 1.0% 2.6% 8.9% 0.29× 38.74
App State Mountaineers −20.5 0.6% 2.6% 7.3% 0.35× 38.74
Highest scoring half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 71.1% 67.1% 66.7% 1.01× 1.49
1st half highest scoring 28.9% 32.9% 33.3% 0.99× 3.04
Highest scoring quarter 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q4 highest scoring 34.1% 31.9% 31.2% 1.02× 3.14
Q3 highest scoring 32.3% 31.9% 31.3% 1.02× 3.14
Q1 highest scoring 17.5% 18.3% 19.6% 0.94× 5.46
Q2 highest scoring 16.1% 18.3% 17.9% 1.02× 5.46
HT/FT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wake Forest Demon Deacons at HT / Wake Forest Demon Deacons at FT 56.7% 56.8% 48.3% 1.18× 1.76
App State Mountaineers at HT / Wake Forest Demon Deacons at FT 16.0% 15.4% 9.8% 1.58× 6.47
App State Mountaineers at HT / App State Mountaineers at FT 15.7% 15.4% 30.1% 0.51× 6.47
Wake Forest Demon Deacons at HT / App State Mountaineers at FT 7.4% 8.3% 8.2% 1.01× 12.09
Level at HT / Wake Forest Demon Deacons at FT 3.0% 2.1% 1.9% 1.09× 47.74
Level at HT / App State Mountaineers at FT 1.2% 2.1% 1.8% 1.20× 47.77
Moneyline 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wake Forest Demon Deacons to win 75.6% 75.1% 59.9% 1.25× 1.33
App State Mountaineers to win 24.4% 24.9% 40.1% 0.62× 4.01
Odd/Even 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Total points odd 51.5% 50.5% 51.5% 0.98× 1.98
Wake Forest Demon Deacons even 50.0% 50.5% 49.4% 1.02× 1.98
App State Mountaineers even 50.1% 50.5% 50.1% 1.01× 1.98
Wake Forest Demon Deacons odd 50.0% 49.5% 50.6% 0.98× 2.02
App State Mountaineers odd 49.9% 49.5% 49.9% 0.99× 2.02
Total points even 48.5% 49.5% 48.5% 1.02× 2.02
Overtime 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
No overtime 94.7% 94.0% 95.6% 0.98× 1.06
Match to go to overtime 5.3% 6.0% 4.4% 1.35× 16.66
Q1 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wake Forest Demon Deacons to win Q1 58.1% 57.3% 54.7% 1.05× 1.75
App State Mountaineers to win Q1 36.0% 38.2% 40.4% 0.95× 2.62
Q1 tied 5.9% 5.5% 4.9% 1.11× 18.32
Q1 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q1 under 38.5 89.5% 87.4% 84.8% 1.03× 1.14
Q1 over 22.5 87.0% 87.4% 88.8% 0.98× 1.14
Q1 under 35.5 79.0% 76.9% 73.2% 1.05× 1.30
Q1 over 25.5 75.1% 76.9% 77.6% 0.99× 1.30
Q1 under 33.5 69.5% 67.6% 64.0% 1.06× 1.48
Q1 over 27.5 64.8% 61.7% 67.7% 0.91× 1.62
Q1 under 31.5 58.5% 58.6% 54.0% 1.09× 1.71
Q1 over 29.5 53.3% 52.7% 56.9% 0.93× 1.90
Q1 under 30.5 52.6% 52.7% 48.8% 1.08× 1.90
Q1 over 30.5 47.4% 47.3% 51.2% 0.92× 2.11
Q1 under 29.5 46.7% 47.3% 43.1% 1.10× 2.11
Q1 over 31.5 41.5% 41.4% 46.0% 0.90× 2.42
Q1 under 27.5 35.2% 38.3% 32.3% 1.18× 2.61
Q1 over 33.5 30.5% 32.4% 36.0% 0.90× 3.08
Q1 under 25.5 24.9% 23.1% 22.4% 1.03× 4.33
Q1 over 35.5 21.0% 23.1% 26.8% 0.86× 4.33
Q1 under 22.5 13.0% 12.6% 11.2% 1.12× 7.95
Q1 over 38.5 10.5% 12.6% 15.2% 0.83× 7.95
Q2 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wake Forest Demon Deacons to win Q2 57.9% 59.4% 52.9% 1.12× 1.68
App State Mountaineers to win Q2 36.3% 35.7% 41.5% 0.86× 2.80
Q2 tied 5.8% 6.1% 5.7% 1.07× 16.50
Q2 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q2 under 38.5 90.3% 90.8% 85.6% 1.06× 1.10
Q2 over 22.5 86.0% 87.3% 87.4% 1.00× 1.15
Q2 under 35.5 80.3% 83.0% 74.6% 1.11× 1.21
Q2 over 25.5 73.6% 72.0% 76.2% 0.94× 1.39
Q2 under 33.5 71.1% 72.0% 65.6% 1.10× 1.39
Q2 over 27.5 63.1% 60.7% 66.7% 0.91× 1.65
Q2 under 31.5 60.3% 60.7% 55.7% 1.09× 1.65
Q2 under 30.5 54.5% 52.7% 50.1% 1.05× 1.90
Q2 over 29.5 51.4% 52.7% 55.8% 0.94× 1.90
Q2 under 29.5 48.6% 47.3% 44.2% 1.07× 2.11
Q2 over 30.5 45.5% 47.3% 49.9% 0.95× 2.11
Q2 over 31.5 39.7% 39.3% 44.3% 0.89× 2.54
Q2 under 27.5 36.9% 39.3% 33.3% 1.18× 2.55
Q2 over 33.5 28.9% 28.0% 34.4% 0.81× 3.57
Q2 under 25.5 26.4% 28.0% 23.8% 1.18× 3.57
Q2 over 35.5 19.7% 17.0% 25.4% 0.67× 5.88
Q2 under 22.5 14.0% 12.7% 12.6% 1.01× 7.89
Q2 over 38.5 9.7% 9.2% 14.4% 0.64× 10.83
Q3 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wake Forest Demon Deacons to win Q3 58.9% 56.8% 53.3% 1.07× 1.76
App State Mountaineers to win Q3 35.4% 38.8% 41.8% 0.93× 2.58
Q3 tied 5.7% 5.3% 4.9% 1.07× 18.97
Q3 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q3 over 24.5 88.4% 87.2% 89.9% 0.97× 1.15
Q3 under 40.5 87.0% 87.2% 81.9% 1.07× 1.15
Q3 over 27.5 77.5% 77.3% 80.0% 0.97× 1.29
Q3 under 37.5 75.6% 77.3% 69.7% 1.11× 1.29
Q3 over 29.5 67.9% 67.8% 71.8% 0.94× 1.48
Q3 under 35.5 65.7% 67.8% 59.7% 1.14× 1.48
Q3 over 31.5 57.0% 58.4% 61.6% 0.95× 1.71
Q3 under 33.5 54.6% 52.3% 49.1% 1.07× 1.91
Q3 over 32.5 51.2% 52.3% 56.1% 0.93× 1.91
Q3 under 32.5 48.8% 47.7% 43.9% 1.09× 2.10
Q3 over 33.5 45.4% 47.7% 50.9% 0.94× 2.10
Q3 under 31.5 43.0% 41.6% 38.4% 1.08× 2.40
Q3 over 35.5 34.3% 32.2% 40.3% 0.80× 3.10
Q3 under 29.5 32.1% 32.2% 28.2% 1.14× 3.10
Q3 over 37.5 24.4% 22.7% 30.3% 0.75× 4.40
Q3 under 27.5 22.5% 22.7% 20.0% 1.14× 4.40
Q3 over 40.5 13.0% 12.8% 18.1% 0.70× 7.83
Q3 under 24.5 11.6% 12.8% 10.1% 1.27× 7.83
Q4 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wake Forest Demon Deacons to win Q4 58.7% 52.1% 52.8% 0.99× 1.92
App State Mountaineers to win Q4 35.7% 42.4% 41.5% 1.02× 2.36
Q4 tied 5.6% 5.8% 5.7% 1.02× 17.25
Q4 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q4 under 41.5 88.3% 85.6% 83.6% 1.02× 1.17
Q4 over 25.5 84.1% 82.0% 86.1% 0.95× 1.22
Q4 under 38.5 78.3% 76.9% 73.1% 1.05× 1.30
Q4 over 28.5 72.1% 71.5% 75.1% 0.95× 1.40
Q4 under 36.5 69.4% 67.4% 64.3% 1.05× 1.48
Q4 over 30.5 62.2% 61.4% 66.3% 0.93× 1.63
Q4 under 34.5 59.3% 58.4% 54.4% 1.07× 1.71
Q4 under 33.5 53.9% 52.5% 49.6% 1.06× 1.91
Q4 over 32.5 51.5% 52.5% 55.4% 0.95× 1.91
Q4 under 32.5 48.5% 47.5% 44.6% 1.07× 2.11
Q4 over 33.5 46.1% 47.5% 50.4% 0.94× 2.11
Q4 over 34.5 40.7% 41.6% 45.6% 0.91× 2.40
Q4 under 30.5 37.8% 38.6% 33.7% 1.14× 2.59
Q4 over 36.5 30.6% 32.6% 35.7% 0.91× 3.07
Q4 under 28.5 27.9% 28.5% 24.9% 1.14× 3.51
Q4 over 38.5 21.7% 23.1% 26.9% 0.86× 4.33
Q4 under 25.5 15.9% 18.0% 13.9% 1.30× 5.56
Q4 over 41.5 11.7% 14.4% 16.4% 0.88× 6.95
Team total 44
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
App State Mountaineers under 69.5 88.1% 83.9% 71.2% 1.18× 1.19
Wake Forest Demon Deacons over 56.5 85.3% 83.9% 79.5% 1.05× 1.19
Wake Forest Demon Deacons under 76.5 85.5% 83.9% 75.4% 1.11× 1.19
App State Mountaineers over 49.5 84.8% 80.7% 85.1% 0.95× 1.24
App State Mountaineers under 66.5 80.4% 80.7% 62.7% 1.29× 1.24
Wake Forest Demon Deacons over 59.5 76.8% 75.1% 72.2% 1.04× 1.33
Wake Forest Demon Deacons under 73.5 77.1% 75.1% 68.5% 1.10× 1.33
App State Mountaineers over 52.5 75.2% 75.1% 78.5% 0.96× 1.33
App State Mountaineers under 64.5 73.9% 70.7% 56.9% 1.24× 1.41
Wake Forest Demon Deacons under 71.5 70.2% 70.7% 63.0% 1.12× 1.41
Wake Forest Demon Deacons over 61.5 70.0% 66.4% 66.9% 0.99× 1.51
App State Mountaineers over 54.5 67.6% 66.4% 73.5% 0.90× 1.51
App State Mountaineers under 62.5 66.4% 66.4% 51.0% 1.30× 1.51
Wake Forest Demon Deacons over 63.5 62.3% 61.2% 61.5% 1.00× 1.63
Wake Forest Demon Deacons under 69.5 62.5% 61.2% 57.4% 1.07× 1.63
App State Mountaineers over 56.5 59.2% 57.1% 68.0% 0.84× 1.75
App State Mountaineers under 60.5 58.2% 57.1% 44.4% 1.29× 1.75
Wake Forest Demon Deacons over 65.5 54.1% 52.3% 55.3% 0.95× 1.91
Wake Forest Demon Deacons under 67.5 54.3% 52.3% 51.3% 1.02× 1.91
App State Mountaineers under 59.5 53.8% 52.3% 41.2% 1.27× 1.91
Wake Forest Demon Deacons under 66.5 50.1% 52.3% 48.2% 1.09× 1.91
App State Mountaineers over 58.5 50.5% 52.3% 62.1% 0.84× 1.91
Wake Forest Demon Deacons over 66.5 49.9% 47.7% 51.8% 0.92× 2.09
App State Mountaineers under 58.5 49.5% 47.7% 37.9% 1.26× 2.09
Wake Forest Demon Deacons under 65.5 45.9% 47.7% 44.7% 1.07× 2.09
Wake Forest Demon Deacons over 67.5 45.7% 47.7% 48.7% 0.98× 2.09
App State Mountaineers over 59.5 46.2% 47.7% 58.8% 0.81× 2.09
App State Mountaineers over 60.5 41.8% 42.9% 55.6% 0.77× 2.33
App State Mountaineers under 56.5 40.8% 42.9% 32.0% 1.34× 2.33
Wake Forest Demon Deacons under 63.5 37.7% 38.8% 38.5% 1.01× 2.58
Wake Forest Demon Deacons over 69.5 37.5% 38.8% 42.6% 0.91× 2.58
App State Mountaineers over 62.5 33.6% 33.6% 49.0% 0.69× 2.98
App State Mountaineers under 54.5 32.4% 33.6% 26.5% 1.27× 2.98
Wake Forest Demon Deacons under 61.5 30.0% 33.6% 33.1% 1.02× 2.98
Wake Forest Demon Deacons over 71.5 29.8% 29.3% 37.0% 0.79× 3.42
App State Mountaineers over 64.5 26.1% 29.3% 43.2% 0.68× 3.42
App State Mountaineers under 52.5 24.8% 24.9% 21.5% 1.16× 4.02
Wake Forest Demon Deacons under 59.5 23.2% 24.9% 27.8% 0.89× 4.02
Wake Forest Demon Deacons over 73.5 22.9% 24.9% 31.5% 0.79× 4.02
App State Mountaineers over 66.5 19.6% 19.3% 37.3% 0.52× 5.18
App State Mountaineers under 49.5 15.2% 19.3% 14.9% 1.29× 5.18
Wake Forest Demon Deacons under 56.5 14.7% 16.1% 20.5% 0.79× 6.21
Wake Forest Demon Deacons over 76.5 14.5% 16.1% 24.6% 0.66× 6.21
App State Mountaineers over 69.5 11.9% 16.1% 28.8% 0.56× 6.21
Total points 30
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 105.5 points 91.5% 88.8% 91.9% 0.97× 1.13
Under 145.5 points 91.4% 88.8% 79.5% 1.12× 1.13
Under 140.5 points 84.9% 80.6% 71.8% 1.12× 1.24
Over 110.5 points 84.4% 80.6% 86.4% 0.93× 1.24
Under 135.5 points 75.8% 75.6% 62.4% 1.21× 1.32
Over 115.5 points 74.5% 70.8% 78.8% 0.90× 1.41
Under 132.5 points 69.1% 65.9% 56.0% 1.18× 1.52
Over 118.5 points 67.4% 65.9% 73.6% 0.90× 1.52
Under 130.5 points 64.2% 61.5% 51.7% 1.19× 1.63
Over 120.5 points 62.3% 61.5% 69.8% 0.88× 1.63
Under 128.5 points 59.1% 56.5% 47.2% 1.20× 1.77
Over 122.5 points 57.0% 56.5% 65.6% 0.86× 1.77
Under 126.5 points 53.7% 52.3% 42.6% 1.23× 1.91
Over 124.5 points 51.7% 52.3% 61.5% 0.85× 1.91
Under 125.5 points 51.1% 52.3% 40.5% 1.29× 1.91
Over 125.5 points 48.9% 47.7% 59.5% 0.80× 2.10
Under 124.5 points 48.3% 47.7% 38.5% 1.24× 2.10
Over 126.5 points 46.3% 47.7% 57.4% 0.83× 2.10
Under 122.5 points 43.0% 43.5% 34.4% 1.26× 2.30
Over 128.5 points 40.9% 43.5% 52.8% 0.82× 2.30
Under 120.5 points 37.7% 38.5% 30.2% 1.28× 2.60
Over 130.5 points 35.8% 38.5% 48.3% 0.80× 2.60
Under 118.5 points 32.6% 34.1% 26.4% 1.29× 2.93
Over 132.5 points 30.9% 34.1% 44.0% 0.77× 2.93
Under 115.5 points 25.6% 29.2% 21.2% 1.38× 3.43
Over 135.5 points 24.2% 24.4% 37.6% 0.65× 4.10
Under 110.5 points 15.6% 19.4% 13.6% 1.43× 5.15
Over 140.5 points 15.1% 19.4% 28.2% 0.69× 5.15
Under 105.5 points 8.5% 11.2% 8.1% 1.38× 8.96
Over 145.5 points 8.6% 11.2% 20.5% 0.55× 8.96
Win both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wake Forest Demon Deacons to win both halves 39.0% 36.3% 36.0% 1.01× 2.75
App State Mountaineers to win both halves 7.5% 8.8% 20.4% 0.43× 11.32
Winning margin 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wake Forest Demon Deacons by 6-10 18.4% 16.8% 12.9% 1.30× 5.97
Wake Forest Demon Deacons by 1-5 17.0% 16.8% 10.2% 1.64× 5.97
Wake Forest Demon Deacons by 11-15 16.4% 16.8% 10.8% 1.55× 5.97
App State Mountaineers by 1-5 11.9% 12.3% 10.2% 1.21× 8.11
Wake Forest Demon Deacons by 16-20 11.9% 12.3% 8.0% 1.53× 8.11
App State Mountaineers by 6-10 7.1% 7.5% 10.3% 0.72× 13.40
Wake Forest Demon Deacons by 21-25 7.0% 7.5% 5.4% 1.39× 13.40
Wake Forest Demon Deacons by 26+ 5.1% 7.5% 12.6% 0.59× 13.41
App State Mountaineers by 11-15 3.5% 2.0% 7.6% 0.27× 49.30
App State Mountaineers by 16-20 1.4% 2.0% 4.8% 0.43× 49.32
App State Mountaineers by 21-25 0.4% 2.0% 2.7% 0.76× 49.32
App State Mountaineers by 26+ 0.1% 2.0% 4.6% 0.44× 49.33
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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