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Xavier Musketeers v Akron Zips — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Monday 9 November 2026 · NCAAW · 2027

NCAAW results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

nba-normal No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.
Xavier Musketeers win
81.7%
Draw
0.0%
Akron Zips win
18.3%

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
nba-normal 74.31–64.44 74-64 0% 48% 0%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

Century marks 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Xavier Musketeers to score 100+ 0.4% 0.4% 1.8% 0.20× 283.27
Xavier Musketeers to score 110+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.6% 0.64× 283.35
Xavier Musketeers to score 120+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 2.91× 283.36
Xavier Musketeers to score 130+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 7.58× 283.36
Akron Zips to score 100+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.5% 0.72× 283.35
Akron Zips to score 110+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 4.74× 283.36
Akron Zips to score 120+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 18.95× 283.36
Akron Zips to score 130+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 37.89× 283.36
Both sides to score 100+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 6.32× 283.36
H1 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Xavier Musketeers to win H1 68.8% 68.3% 56.4% 1.21× 1.46
Akron Zips to win H1 27.3% 26.5% 39.9% 0.67× 3.77
H1 tied 3.9% 3.9% 3.7% 1.05× 25.86
H1 total 22
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H1 under 78.5 88.5% 87.7% 92.8% 0.95× 1.14
H1 over 54.5 87.7% 87.7% 74.0% 1.19× 1.14
H1 under 74.5 79.0% 77.4% 87.2% 0.89× 1.29
H1 over 58.5 77.8% 77.4% 61.4% 1.26× 1.29
H1 under 71.5 69.6% 67.4% 81.4% 0.83× 1.48
H1 over 61.5 68.1% 67.4% 50.2% 1.34× 1.48
H1 under 69.5 62.4% 62.7% 76.2% 0.82× 1.59
H1 over 63.5 60.8% 62.7% 42.9% 1.46× 1.59
H1 under 67.5 54.8% 52.6% 70.4% 0.75× 1.90
H1 over 65.5 53.1% 52.6% 36.1% 1.46× 1.90
H1 under 66.5 50.9% 52.6% 67.1% 0.78× 1.90
H1 over 66.5 49.1% 47.4% 32.9% 1.44× 2.11
H1 under 65.5 47.0% 47.4% 63.9% 0.74× 2.11
H1 over 67.5 45.2% 47.4% 29.6% 1.60× 2.11
H1 under 63.5 39.2% 37.3% 57.1% 0.65× 2.68
H1 over 69.5 37.6% 37.3% 23.8% 1.56× 2.68
H1 under 61.5 31.9% 32.6% 49.8% 0.65× 3.07
H1 over 71.5 30.4% 32.6% 18.6% 1.76× 3.07
H1 under 58.5 22.2% 22.6% 38.6% 0.58× 4.43
H1 over 74.5 21.0% 22.6% 12.8% 1.76× 4.43
H1 under 54.5 12.3% 12.3% 26.0% 0.47× 8.14
H1 over 78.5 11.5% 12.3% 7.2% 1.70× 8.14
H2 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Xavier Musketeers to win H2 70.0% 62.8% 56.0% 1.12× 1.59
Akron Zips to win H2 26.3% 31.3% 40.6% 0.77× 3.20
H2 tied 3.7% 3.9% 3.4% 1.16× 25.36
H2 total 22
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H2 over 60.5 87.2% 85.2% 74.5% 1.14× 1.17
H2 under 84.5 86.8% 85.2% 90.3% 0.94× 1.17
H2 over 64.5 77.6% 75.8% 62.1% 1.22× 1.32
H2 under 80.5 77.1% 75.8% 84.0% 0.90× 1.32
H2 over 67.5 68.3% 66.4% 52.1% 1.27× 1.51
H2 under 77.5 67.8% 66.4% 77.9% 0.85× 1.51
H2 over 69.5 61.4% 61.6% 45.2% 1.36× 1.62
H2 under 75.5 60.8% 61.6% 73.0% 0.84× 1.62
H2 over 71.5 54.0% 52.4% 38.9% 1.35× 1.91
H2 under 73.5 53.4% 52.4% 67.1% 0.78× 1.91
H2 over 72.5 50.3% 52.4% 36.0% 1.46× 1.91
H2 under 72.5 49.7% 47.6% 64.1% 0.74× 2.10
H2 under 71.5 46.0% 47.6% 61.1% 0.78× 2.10
H2 over 73.5 46.6% 47.6% 32.9% 1.45× 2.10
H2 over 75.5 39.2% 38.4% 27.0% 1.42× 2.61
H2 under 69.5 38.6% 38.4% 54.8% 0.70× 2.61
H2 under 67.5 31.7% 33.6% 47.9% 0.70× 2.97
H2 over 77.5 32.2% 33.6% 22.1% 1.52× 2.97
H2 under 64.5 22.4% 24.2% 37.9% 0.64× 4.13
H2 over 80.5 22.9% 24.2% 16.0% 1.52× 4.13
H2 under 60.5 12.8% 14.8% 25.5% 0.58× 6.76
H2 over 84.5 13.2% 14.8% 9.7% 1.52× 6.76
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Xavier Musketeers leading at half time 68.8% 68.4% 56.4% 1.21× 1.46
Akron Zips leading at half time 27.3% 26.5% 39.9% 0.66× 3.78
Level at half time 3.9% 3.8% 3.7% 1.03× 26.41
Handicap 60
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Xavier Musketeers +18.5 99.4% 97.4% 91.1% 1.07× 1.03
Xavier Musketeers +20.5 99.6% 97.4% 92.7% 1.05× 1.03
Xavier Musketeers +9.5 95.6% 97.4% 78.7% 1.24× 1.03
Xavier Musketeers +10.5 96.4% 97.4% 80.4% 1.21× 1.03
Xavier Musketeers +12.5 97.6% 97.4% 83.8% 1.16× 1.03
Xavier Musketeers +14.5 98.4% 97.4% 86.7% 1.12× 1.03
Xavier Musketeers +16.5 99.0% 97.4% 89.1% 1.09× 1.03
Xavier Musketeers +8.5 94.7% 91.1% 76.5% 1.19× 1.10
Xavier Musketeers +6.5 92.5% 91.1% 72.3% 1.26× 1.10
Xavier Musketeers +7.5 93.7% 91.1% 74.5% 1.22× 1.10
Xavier Musketeers +5.5 91.2% 91.1% 70.1% 1.30× 1.10
Xavier Musketeers +4.5 89.6% 85.9% 67.8% 1.27× 1.16
Xavier Musketeers +3.5 87.9% 85.9% 65.7% 1.31× 1.16
Xavier Musketeers +2.5 86.0% 85.9% 63.3% 1.36× 1.16
Xavier Musketeers +1.5 83.9% 81.1% 61.2% 1.32× 1.23
Akron Zips +20.5 82.6% 81.1% 82.0% 0.99× 1.23
Xavier Musketeers −1.5 79.0% 76.5% 58.7% 1.30× 1.31
Akron Zips +18.5 77.5% 76.5% 79.3% 0.96× 1.31
Xavier Musketeers −2.5 76.1% 76.5% 56.7% 1.35× 1.31
Xavier Musketeers −3.5 73.1% 71.6% 54.2% 1.32× 1.40
Akron Zips +16.5 71.8% 71.6% 75.7% 0.95× 1.40
Xavier Musketeers −4.5 69.9% 66.7% 52.2% 1.28× 1.50
Xavier Musketeers −5.5 66.6% 66.7% 49.7% 1.34× 1.50
Akron Zips +14.5 65.3% 66.7% 72.1% 0.93× 1.50
Xavier Musketeers −6.5 63.2% 61.9% 47.6% 1.30× 1.62
Xavier Musketeers −7.5 59.6% 57.1% 44.8% 1.28× 1.75
Akron Zips +12.5 58.4% 57.1% 67.9% 0.84× 1.75
Xavier Musketeers −8.5 56.0% 57.1% 42.0% 1.36× 1.75
Xavier Musketeers −9.5 52.4% 52.4% 39.3% 1.33× 1.91
Akron Zips +10.5 51.2% 52.4% 63.2% 0.83× 1.91
Xavier Musketeers −10.5 48.8% 47.6% 36.8% 1.29× 2.10
Akron Zips +9.5 47.6% 47.6% 60.7% 0.78× 2.10
Akron Zips +8.5 44.0% 42.9% 58.0% 0.74× 2.33
Xavier Musketeers −12.5 41.6% 42.9% 32.1% 1.34× 2.33
Akron Zips +7.5 40.4% 42.9% 55.2% 0.78× 2.33
Akron Zips +6.5 36.8% 38.1% 52.4% 0.73× 2.63
Xavier Musketeers −14.5 34.7% 33.3% 27.9% 1.19× 3.01
Akron Zips +5.5 33.4% 33.3% 50.3% 0.66× 3.01
Akron Zips +4.5 30.1% 33.3% 47.8% 0.70× 3.01
Xavier Musketeers −16.5 28.2% 28.4% 24.3% 1.17× 3.53
Akron Zips +3.5 26.9% 28.4% 45.8% 0.62× 3.53
Akron Zips +2.5 23.9% 23.5% 43.3% 0.54× 4.25
Xavier Musketeers −18.5 22.5% 23.5% 20.7% 1.14× 4.25
Akron Zips +1.5 21.0% 23.5% 41.3% 0.57× 4.25
Xavier Musketeers −20.5 17.4% 18.9% 18.0% 1.05× 5.29
Akron Zips −1.5 16.1% 18.9% 38.8% 0.49× 5.30
Akron Zips −2.5 14.0% 14.1% 36.7% 0.39× 7.09
Akron Zips −3.5 12.1% 14.1% 34.3% 0.41× 7.09
Akron Zips −4.5 10.4% 14.1% 32.2% 0.44× 7.09
Akron Zips −5.5 8.8% 8.9% 29.9% 0.30× 11.25
Akron Zips −6.5 7.5% 8.9% 27.7% 0.32× 11.25
Akron Zips −7.5 6.3% 8.9% 25.5% 0.35× 11.25
Akron Zips −8.5 5.3% 8.9% 23.5% 0.38× 11.25
Akron Zips −9.5 4.4% 2.6% 21.3% 0.12× 38.72
Akron Zips −10.5 3.6% 2.6% 19.6% 0.13× 38.73
Akron Zips −12.5 2.4% 2.6% 16.2% 0.16× 38.73
Akron Zips −14.5 1.6% 2.6% 13.3% 0.19× 38.73
Akron Zips −16.5 1.0% 2.6% 10.9% 0.24× 38.74
Akron Zips −18.5 0.6% 2.6% 8.9% 0.29× 38.74
Akron Zips −20.5 0.4% 2.6% 7.3% 0.35× 38.74
Highest scoring half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 73.3% 67.1% 66.7% 1.01× 1.49
1st half highest scoring 26.7% 32.9% 33.3% 0.99× 3.04
Highest scoring quarter 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q4 highest scoring 34.9% 31.9% 31.2% 1.02× 3.14
Q3 highest scoring 33.1% 31.9% 31.3% 1.02× 3.14
Q1 highest scoring 16.8% 18.3% 19.6% 0.94× 5.46
Q2 highest scoring 15.2% 18.3% 17.9% 1.02× 5.46
HT/FT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Xavier Musketeers at HT / Xavier Musketeers at FT 63.1% 62.3% 48.3% 1.29× 1.61
Akron Zips at HT / Xavier Musketeers at FT 15.6% 15.4% 9.8% 1.58× 6.47
Akron Zips at HT / Akron Zips at FT 11.7% 12.2% 30.1% 0.41× 8.18
Xavier Musketeers at HT / Akron Zips at FT 5.7% 8.3% 8.2% 1.01× 12.10
Level at HT / Xavier Musketeers at FT 3.0% 2.1% 1.9% 1.09× 47.74
Level at HT / Akron Zips at FT 0.9% 2.1% 1.8% 1.20× 47.78
Moneyline 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Xavier Musketeers to win 81.7% 80.9% 59.9% 1.35× 1.24
Akron Zips to win 18.3% 19.1% 40.1% 0.48× 5.23
Odd/Even 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Xavier Musketeers even 50.0% 50.5% 49.4% 1.02× 1.98
Akron Zips even 50.0% 50.5% 50.1% 1.01× 1.98
Total points odd 51.2% 50.5% 51.5% 0.98× 1.98
Xavier Musketeers odd 50.0% 49.5% 50.6% 0.98× 2.02
Akron Zips odd 50.0% 49.5% 49.9% 0.99× 2.02
Total points even 48.8% 49.5% 48.5% 1.02× 2.02
Overtime 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
No overtime 95.3% 97.0% 95.6% 1.02× 1.03
Match to go to overtime 4.7% 3.0% 4.4% 0.68× 33.33
Q1 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Xavier Musketeers to win Q1 61.6% 64.9% 54.7% 1.19× 1.54
Akron Zips to win Q1 32.7% 30.4% 40.4% 0.75× 3.29
Q1 tied 5.7% 5.5% 4.9% 1.11× 18.32
Q1 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q1 under 41.5 88.6% 87.4% 91.9% 0.95× 1.14
Q1 over 25.5 87.6% 87.4% 77.6% 1.13× 1.14
Q1 under 38.5 77.8% 76.9% 84.8% 0.91× 1.30
Q1 over 28.5 76.1% 76.9% 62.7% 1.23× 1.30
Q1 under 36.5 68.1% 67.6% 77.4% 0.87× 1.48
Q1 over 30.5 66.1% 67.6% 51.2% 1.32× 1.48
Q1 under 34.5 56.9% 58.6% 68.5% 0.86× 1.71
Q1 over 32.5 54.8% 52.7% 40.9% 1.29× 1.90
Q1 under 33.5 51.1% 52.7% 64.0% 0.82× 1.90
Q1 over 33.5 48.9% 47.3% 36.0% 1.31× 2.11
Q1 under 32.5 45.2% 47.3% 59.1% 0.80× 2.11
Q1 over 34.5 43.1% 41.4% 31.5% 1.31× 2.42
Q1 under 30.5 33.9% 32.4% 48.8% 0.67× 3.08
Q1 over 36.5 31.9% 32.4% 22.6% 1.44× 3.08
Q1 under 28.5 23.9% 23.1% 37.3% 0.62× 4.33
Q1 over 38.5 22.2% 23.1% 15.2% 1.52× 4.33
Q1 under 25.5 12.4% 12.6% 22.4% 0.56× 7.95
Q1 over 41.5 11.4% 12.6% 8.1% 1.56× 7.95
Q2 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Xavier Musketeers to win Q2 61.2% 61.9% 52.9% 1.17× 1.62
Akron Zips to win Q2 33.1% 31.8% 41.5% 0.77× 3.14
Q2 tied 5.6% 6.1% 5.7% 1.07× 16.50
Q2 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q2 under 41.5 89.6% 87.3% 92.7% 0.94× 1.15
Q2 over 25.5 86.5% 87.3% 76.2% 1.15× 1.15
Q2 under 38.5 79.2% 76.8% 85.6% 0.90× 1.30
Q2 over 28.5 74.5% 72.0% 61.2% 1.18× 1.39
Q2 under 36.5 69.9% 67.4% 78.7% 0.86× 1.48
Q2 over 30.5 64.2% 60.7% 49.9% 1.22× 1.65
Q2 under 34.5 58.9% 58.2% 70.1% 0.83× 1.72
Q2 under 33.5 53.1% 52.7% 65.6% 0.80× 1.90
Q2 over 32.5 52.8% 52.7% 39.2% 1.34× 1.90
Q2 under 32.5 47.2% 47.3% 60.8% 0.78× 2.11
Q2 over 33.5 46.9% 47.3% 34.4% 1.38× 2.11
Q2 over 34.5 41.1% 41.8% 29.9% 1.40× 2.39
Q2 under 30.5 35.8% 39.3% 50.1% 0.78× 2.55
Q2 over 36.5 30.1% 32.6% 21.3% 1.53× 3.06
Q2 under 28.5 25.5% 28.0% 38.8% 0.72× 3.57
Q2 over 38.5 20.8% 23.2% 14.4% 1.61× 4.31
Q2 under 25.5 13.5% 12.7% 23.8% 0.53× 7.89
Q2 over 41.5 10.4% 12.7% 7.3% 1.72× 7.90
Q3 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Xavier Musketeers to win Q3 62.5% 60.9% 53.3% 1.14× 1.64
Akron Zips to win Q3 32.0% 33.8% 41.8% 0.81× 2.96
Q3 tied 5.5% 5.3% 4.9% 1.07× 18.97
Q3 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q3 under 44.5 88.1% 87.2% 92.1% 0.95× 1.15
Q3 over 28.5 86.8% 87.2% 76.4% 1.14× 1.15
Q3 under 41.5 77.4% 77.3% 85.1% 0.91× 1.29
Q3 over 31.5 75.3% 77.3% 61.6% 1.25× 1.29
Q3 under 39.5 67.9% 67.8% 77.9% 0.87× 1.48
Q3 over 33.5 65.4% 67.8% 50.9% 1.33× 1.48
Q3 under 37.5 57.1% 58.4% 69.7% 0.84× 1.71
Q3 over 35.5 54.3% 52.3% 40.3% 1.30× 1.91
Q3 under 36.5 51.4% 52.3% 64.6% 0.81× 1.91
Q3 over 36.5 48.6% 47.7% 35.4% 1.35× 2.10
Q3 under 35.5 45.7% 47.7% 59.7% 0.80× 2.10
Q3 over 37.5 42.9% 41.6% 30.3% 1.37× 2.40
Q3 under 33.5 34.6% 32.2% 49.1% 0.66× 3.10
Q3 over 39.5 32.1% 32.2% 22.1% 1.46× 3.10
Q3 under 31.5 24.7% 22.7% 38.4% 0.59× 4.40
Q3 over 41.5 22.6% 22.7% 14.9% 1.53× 4.40
Q3 under 28.5 13.2% 12.8% 23.6% 0.54× 7.83
Q3 over 44.5 11.9% 12.8% 7.9% 1.63× 7.83
Q4 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Xavier Musketeers to win Q4 62.3% 57.8% 52.8% 1.09× 1.73
Akron Zips to win Q4 32.3% 37.4% 41.5% 0.90× 2.68
Q4 tied 5.4% 5.8% 5.7% 1.02× 17.26
Q4 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q4 under 44.5 86.6% 85.6% 90.6% 0.95× 1.17
Q4 over 28.5 85.6% 85.6% 75.1% 1.14× 1.17
Q4 under 41.5 75.8% 76.9% 83.6% 0.92× 1.30
Q4 over 31.5 74.4% 71.5% 61.1% 1.17× 1.40
Q4 under 39.5 66.6% 67.4% 77.0% 0.88× 1.48
Q4 over 33.5 64.9% 61.4% 50.4% 1.22× 1.63
Q4 under 37.5 56.3% 58.4% 68.8% 0.85× 1.71
Q4 over 35.5 54.5% 52.5% 40.6% 1.29× 1.91
Q4 under 36.5 50.9% 52.5% 64.3% 0.82× 1.91
Q4 over 36.5 49.1% 47.5% 35.7% 1.33× 2.11
Q4 under 35.5 45.5% 47.5% 59.4% 0.80× 2.11
Q4 over 37.5 43.7% 41.6% 31.2% 1.33× 2.40
Q4 under 33.5 35.1% 38.6% 49.6% 0.78× 2.59
Q4 over 39.5 33.4% 32.6% 23.0% 1.41× 3.07
Q4 under 31.5 25.6% 28.5% 38.9% 0.73× 3.51
Q4 over 41.5 24.2% 23.1% 16.4% 1.41× 4.33
Q4 under 28.5 14.4% 14.4% 24.9% 0.58× 6.95
Q4 over 44.5 13.4% 14.4% 9.4% 1.53× 6.95
Team total 44
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Akron Zips under 74.5 86.3% 83.9% 82.3% 1.02× 1.19
Xavier Musketeers under 84.5 85.4% 83.9% 88.9% 0.94× 1.19
Akron Zips over 54.5 85.8% 83.9% 73.5% 1.14× 1.19
Xavier Musketeers over 64.5 85.2% 83.9% 58.4% 1.44× 1.19
Akron Zips under 71.5 77.9% 75.1% 76.1% 0.99× 1.33
Xavier Musketeers under 81.5 76.9% 75.1% 84.6% 0.89× 1.33
Akron Zips over 57.5 77.1% 75.1% 65.1% 1.15× 1.33
Xavier Musketeers over 67.5 76.8% 75.1% 48.7% 1.54× 1.33
Xavier Musketeers under 79.5 70.1% 70.7% 81.3% 0.87× 1.41
Akron Zips over 59.5 70.0% 70.7% 58.8% 1.20× 1.41
Akron Zips under 69.5 71.1% 70.7% 71.2% 0.99× 1.41
Xavier Musketeers over 69.5 70.0% 66.4% 42.6% 1.56× 1.51
Xavier Musketeers under 77.5 62.4% 61.2% 77.4% 0.79× 1.63
Akron Zips over 61.5 62.1% 61.2% 52.1% 1.17× 1.63
Akron Zips under 67.5 63.3% 61.2% 65.6% 0.93× 1.63
Xavier Musketeers over 71.5 62.3% 61.2% 37.0% 1.65× 1.63
Xavier Musketeers under 75.5 54.2% 52.3% 73.2% 0.71× 1.91
Akron Zips over 63.5 53.7% 52.3% 46.1% 1.13× 1.91
Akron Zips under 65.5 54.9% 52.3% 59.8% 0.87× 1.91
Xavier Musketeers over 73.5 54.1% 52.3% 31.5% 1.66× 1.91
Xavier Musketeers under 74.5 50.0% 52.3% 70.7% 0.74× 1.91
Akron Zips under 64.5 50.6% 52.3% 56.9% 0.92× 1.91
Xavier Musketeers over 74.5 50.0% 47.7% 29.3% 1.63× 2.09
Akron Zips over 64.5 49.4% 47.7% 43.2% 1.11× 2.09
Xavier Musketeers over 75.5 45.8% 47.7% 26.8% 1.78× 2.09
Akron Zips under 63.5 46.3% 47.7% 53.9% 0.89× 2.09
Akron Zips over 65.5 45.1% 47.7% 40.2% 1.19× 2.09
Xavier Musketeers under 73.5 45.9% 47.7% 68.5% 0.70× 2.09
Xavier Musketeers over 77.5 37.6% 38.8% 22.6% 1.72× 2.58
Akron Zips under 61.5 37.9% 38.8% 47.9% 0.81× 2.58
Akron Zips over 67.5 36.7% 38.8% 34.4% 1.13× 2.58
Xavier Musketeers under 71.5 37.7% 38.8% 63.0% 0.62× 2.58
Xavier Musketeers under 69.5 30.0% 33.6% 57.4% 0.59× 2.98
Xavier Musketeers over 79.5 29.9% 29.3% 18.7% 1.57× 3.42
Akron Zips under 59.5 30.0% 29.3% 41.2% 0.71× 3.42
Akron Zips over 69.5 28.9% 29.3% 28.8% 1.02× 3.42
Xavier Musketeers over 81.5 23.1% 24.9% 15.4% 1.61× 4.02
Akron Zips under 57.5 22.9% 24.9% 34.9% 0.71× 4.02
Xavier Musketeers under 67.5 23.2% 24.9% 51.3% 0.48× 4.02
Akron Zips over 71.5 22.1% 24.9% 23.9% 1.04× 4.02
Xavier Musketeers over 84.5 14.6% 16.1% 11.1% 1.45× 6.21
Akron Zips under 54.5 14.2% 16.1% 26.5% 0.61× 6.21
Xavier Musketeers under 64.5 14.8% 16.1% 41.6% 0.39× 6.21
Akron Zips over 74.5 13.7% 16.1% 17.7% 0.91× 6.21
Total points 30
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 159.5 points 91.5% 88.8% 93.3% 0.95× 1.13
Over 119.5 points 90.2% 88.8% 71.6% 1.24× 1.13
Under 154.5 points 85.1% 85.0% 89.8% 0.95× 1.18
Over 124.5 points 83.1% 80.6% 61.5% 1.31× 1.24
Under 149.5 points 76.1% 75.6% 84.9% 0.89× 1.32
Over 129.5 points 73.3% 70.8% 50.5% 1.40× 1.41
Under 146.5 points 69.4% 65.9% 80.9% 0.81× 1.52
Over 132.5 points 66.4% 65.9% 44.0% 1.50× 1.52
Under 144.5 points 64.6% 61.5% 78.1% 0.79× 1.63
Over 134.5 points 61.4% 61.5% 39.8% 1.54× 1.63
Under 142.5 points 59.6% 56.5% 75.1% 0.75× 1.77
Over 136.5 points 56.2% 56.5% 35.8% 1.58× 1.77
Under 140.5 points 54.4% 52.3% 71.8% 0.73× 1.91
Under 139.5 points 51.8% 52.3% 69.9% 0.75× 1.91
Over 138.5 points 50.9% 52.3% 32.1% 1.63× 1.91
Under 138.5 points 49.1% 47.7% 67.9% 0.70× 2.10
Over 139.5 points 48.2% 47.7% 30.1% 1.58× 2.10
Over 140.5 points 45.6% 47.7% 28.2% 1.69× 2.10
Under 136.5 points 43.8% 43.5% 64.2% 0.68× 2.30
Over 142.5 points 40.4% 43.5% 24.9% 1.75× 2.30
Under 134.5 points 38.6% 38.5% 60.2% 0.64× 2.60
Over 144.5 points 35.4% 38.5% 21.9% 1.76× 2.60
Under 132.5 points 33.6% 34.1% 56.0% 0.61× 2.93
Over 146.5 points 30.6% 34.1% 19.1% 1.79× 2.93
Under 129.5 points 26.7% 29.2% 49.5% 0.59× 3.43
Over 149.5 points 23.9% 24.4% 15.1% 1.62× 4.10
Under 124.5 points 16.9% 19.4% 38.5% 0.50× 5.15
Over 154.5 points 14.9% 15.0% 10.2% 1.47× 6.68
Under 119.5 points 9.8% 11.2% 28.4% 0.39× 8.96
Over 159.5 points 8.5% 11.2% 6.7% 1.67× 8.96
Win both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Xavier Musketeers to win both halves 45.9% 45.8% 36.0% 1.27× 2.18
Akron Zips to win both halves 5.3% 8.8% 20.4% 0.43× 11.34
Winning margin 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Xavier Musketeers by 6-10 17.8% 16.8% 12.9% 1.30× 5.97
Xavier Musketeers by 11-15 17.4% 16.8% 10.8% 1.55× 5.97
Xavier Musketeers by 1-5 15.1% 16.8% 10.2% 1.64× 5.97
Xavier Musketeers by 16-20 14.0% 12.3% 8.0% 1.53× 8.11
Akron Zips by 1-5 9.5% 7.5% 10.2% 0.73× 13.40
Xavier Musketeers by 21-25 9.2% 7.5% 5.4% 1.39× 13.40
Xavier Musketeers by 26+ 8.2% 7.5% 12.6% 0.59× 13.40
Akron Zips by 6-10 5.2% 7.5% 10.3% 0.72× 13.40
Akron Zips by 11-15 2.4% 2.0% 7.6% 0.27× 49.31
Akron Zips by 16-20 0.9% 2.0% 4.8% 0.43× 49.32
Akron Zips by 21-25 0.3% 2.0% 2.7% 0.76× 49.33
Akron Zips by 26+ 0.1% 2.0% 4.6% 0.44× 49.33
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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