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Burton Albion v Mansfield Town — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 19 September 2026 · ENG-League One · 2627

ENG-League One results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

dc-xg No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.
Burton Albion win
45.3%
Draw
32.6%
Mansfield Town win
22.2%

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
dc-xg 1.38–0.91 1-1 15% 40% 47%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Burton Albion to win 40.3% 43.0% 45.2% 0.95× 2.33
Mansfield Town to win 32.4% 30.4% 29.3% 1.04× 3.29
Draw 27.3% 27.9% 25.6% 1.09× 3.59
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Burton Albion & not both score 23.4% 21.9% 24.6% 0.89× 4.57
Draw & both teams score 18.5% 17.9% 19.6% 0.91× 5.58
Mansfield Town & not both score 18.6% 17.9% 15.9% 1.13× 5.58
Burton Albion & both teams score 16.9% 17.9% 20.7% 0.86× 5.58
Mansfield Town & both teams score 13.8% 13.3% 13.6% 0.97× 7.55
Draw & not both score 8.8% 8.4% 6.2% 1.36× 11.94
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Burton Albion & under 3.5 30.4% 30.9% 31.4% 0.98× 3.24
Burton Albion & over 1.5 28.8% 26.0% 33.1% 0.79× 3.84
Mansfield Town & under 3.5 25.1% 26.0% 21.6% 1.21× 3.84
Mansfield Town & over 1.5 22.4% 21.6% 21.2% 1.02× 4.62
Burton Albion & over 2.5 21.4% 21.6% 27.7% 0.78× 4.62
Draw & under 2.5 21.7% 21.6% 18.5% 1.17× 4.62
Draw & under 3.5 21.7% 21.6% 18.5% 1.17× 4.62
Burton Albion & under 2.5 18.9% 18.0% 17.7% 1.02× 5.56
Draw & over 1.5 18.5% 18.0% 19.6% 0.92× 5.56
Mansfield Town & over 2.5 16.7% 18.0% 17.0% 1.06× 5.56
Mansfield Town & under 2.5 15.7% 18.0% 12.5% 1.44× 5.56
Burton Albion & under 1.5 11.5% 12.9% 12.3% 1.04× 7.78
Mansfield Town & under 1.5 10.0% 12.9% 8.3% 1.56× 7.78
Burton Albion & over 3.5 9.8% 7.9% 13.9% 0.57× 12.69
Draw & under 1.5 8.8% 7.9% 6.2% 1.28× 12.69
Mansfield Town & over 3.5 7.3% 7.9% 7.9% 0.99× 12.69
Draw & over 2.5 5.6% 7.9% 7.3% 1.08× 12.69
Draw & over 3.5 5.6% 7.9% 7.3% 1.08× 12.69
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Burton Albion (1UP) 55.2% 57.8% 1.73
Mansfield Town (1UP) 48.2% 43.0% 2.33
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Burton Albion (2UP) 40.3% 47.4% 2.11
Mansfield Town (2UP) 32.4% 31.0% 3.22
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half drawn 38.0% 36.1% 2.77
Burton Albion to win 2nd half 32.8% 34.5% 2.90
Mansfield Town to win 2nd half 29.2% 26.3% 3.80
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Mansfield Town (+2.5) 93.6% 92.1% 89.8% 1.03× 1.09
Mansfield Town (+1.5) 81.9% 82.4% 80.1% 1.03× 1.21
Burton Albion (+0.5) 67.6% 68.7% 70.7% 0.97× 1.46
Mansfield Town (+0.5) 59.7% 57.0% 54.8% 1.04× 1.75
Burton Albion (-0.5) 40.3% 43.0% 45.2% 0.95× 2.33
Mansfield Town (-0.5) 32.4% 31.3% 29.3% 1.07× 3.20
Burton Albion (-1.5) 18.1% 17.6% 19.9% 0.88× 5.68
Burton Albion (-2.5) 6.4% 7.9% 10.2% 0.77× 12.68
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Mansfield Town to concede 72.6% 76.5% 78.1% 0.98× 1.31
Mansfield Town clean sheet 27.4% 23.5% 21.9% 1.07× 4.26
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Mansfield Town clean sheet in 1st half 57.3% 57.7% 1.73
Mansfield Town to concede in 1st half 42.7% 42.3% 2.36
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Mansfield Town under 3.5 goals 97.2% 97.6% 96.8% 1.01× 1.03
Mansfield Town under 2.5 goals 89.4% 87.9% 88.3% 1.00× 1.14
Mansfield Town under 1.5 goals 68.7% 68.0% 66.8% 1.02× 1.47
Mansfield Town over 0.5 goals 67.8% 68.0% 69.4% 0.98× 1.47
Mansfield Town under 0.5 goals 32.2% 32.0% 30.6% 1.05× 3.12
Mansfield Town over 1.5 goals 31.3% 32.0% 33.2% 0.96× 3.12
Mansfield Town over 2.5 goals 10.6% 12.1% 11.7% 1.04× 8.26
Mansfield Town over 3.5 goals 2.8% 2.4% 3.2% 0.75× 41.05
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Mansfield Town under 1.5 in 1st half 92.4% 94.1% 1.06
Mansfield Town under 0.5 in 1st half 63.6% 64.5% 1.55
Mansfield Town over 0.5 in 1st half 36.4% 35.5% 2.82
Mansfield Town over 1.5 in 1st half 7.6% 5.9% 17.05
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Burton Albion (away no bet) 59.6% 57.5% 63.8% 0.90× 1.74
Draw (away no bet) 40.4% 42.5% 36.2% 1.17× 2.36
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Mansfield Town even goals 55.2% 56.9% 54.6% 1.04× 1.76
Mansfield Town odd goals 44.8% 43.1% 45.4% 0.95× 2.32
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 88.9% 88.0% 1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals 11.1% 12.0% 8.35
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 57.1% 59.7% 1.68
Both halves under 1.5 goals 42.9% 40.3% 2.48
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 49.5% 46.2% 2.17
Burton Albion to score 2+ in a row 30.0% 28.4% 3.52
Mansfield Town to score 2+ in a row 24.2% 19.4% 5.17
Either team to score 3+ in a row 15.6% 16.4% 6.11
Burton Albion to score 3+ in a row 9.3% 5.6% 17.78
Mansfield Town to score 3+ in a row 6.5% 5.6% 18.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 12.9% 11.5% 12.5% 0.92× 8.73
1-0 11.5% 11.5% 12.3% 0.93× 8.73
0-1 10.0% 11.4% 8.3% 1.39× 8.74
0-0 8.8% 7.4% 6.2% 1.21× 13.46
2-1 8.4% 7.4% 9.6% 0.78× 13.46
1-2 7.3% 7.4% 7.5% 1.00× 13.46
2-0 7.4% 7.4% 5.5% 1.35× 13.46
0-2 5.7% 7.4% 4.4% 1.70× 13.46
2-2 4.7% 1.7% 6.0% 0.28× 58.56
0-3 2.1% 1.7% 1.9% 0.88× 58.58
0-4 0.6% 1.7% 1.6% 1.05× 58.59
1-3 2.8% 1.7% 3.4% 0.50× 58.58
1-4 0.8% 1.7% 0.6% 2.63× 58.59
2-3 1.8% 1.7% 1.8% 0.96× 58.58
2-4 0.5% 1.7% 0.3% 5.27× 58.59
3-0 3.2% 1.7% 4.5% 0.38× 58.57
3-1 3.6% 1.7% 4.1% 0.42× 58.57
3-2 2.1% 1.7% 3.2% 0.53× 58.58
3-3 0.8% 1.7% 1.5% 1.17× 58.59
3-4 0.2% 1.7% 0.3% 5.27× 58.59
4-0 1.0% 1.7% 1.9% 0.88× 58.59
4-1 1.2% 1.7% 1.6% 1.05× 58.59
4-2 0.7% 1.7% 0.6% 2.63× 58.59
4-3 0.3% 1.7% 0.6% 2.63× 58.59
4-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.2% 10.53× 58.59
Any other score 1.7% 1.7% 3.4% 0.50× 58.58
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Burton Albion leading at HT (DNB) 56.5% 57.5% 1.74
Mansfield Town leading at HT (DNB) 43.5% 42.5% 2.35
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Burton Albion or Mansfield Town (12) 72.7% 72.1% 74.4% 0.97× 1.39
Burton Albion or draw (1X) 67.6% 69.6% 70.7% 0.99× 1.44
Mansfield Town or draw (X2) 59.7% 57.0% 54.8% 1.04× 1.75
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Burton Albion or draw at HT 76.6% 80.0% 1.25
Mansfield Town or draw at HT 69.6% 66.2% 1.51
Burton Albion or Mansfield Town at HT 53.8% 47.6% 2.10
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Burton Albion or draw (1UP) 67.6% 75.9% 1.32
Mansfield Town or draw (1UP) 59.7% 62.9% 1.59
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Burton Albion or draw in 2nd half 70.8% 73.7% 1.36
Mansfield Town or draw in 2nd half 67.2% 65.5% 1.53
Burton Albion or Mansfield Town in 2nd half 62.0% 63.9% 1.57
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 66.6% 69.8% 1.43
Neither half drawn 33.4% 30.2% 3.31
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Burton Albion (DNB) 55.4% 58.1% 60.7% 0.96× 1.72
Mansfield Town (DNB) 44.6% 41.9% 39.3% 1.06× 2.39
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Burton Albion to score first 48.7% 45.6% 2.19
Mansfield Town to score first 42.5% 41.6% 2.40
No goal scored 8.8% 7.4% 13.44
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 50.8% 51.4% 46.4% 1.11× 1.94
Both teams to score 49.2% 48.6% 53.6% 0.91× 2.06
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both score & under 2.5 43.3% 41.6% 36.0% 1.15× 2.41
Both score & over 2.5 36.3% 38.5% 41.3% 0.93× 2.60
Both score & under 2.5 12.9% 12.3% 12.5% 0.99× 8.11
Not both score & over 2.5 7.5% 8.4% 10.5% 0.79× 11.97
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 88.4% 85.7% 85.9% 1.00× 1.17
Both teams to score 2+ 11.6% 14.3% 14.1% 1.02× 6.98
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 74.3% 74.6% 1.34
Both teams to score in 2nd half 25.7% 25.4% 3.94
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 62.7% 66.7% 1.50
Both score 2nd half only 21.7% 21.1% 4.74
Both score 1st half only 11.5% 10.5% 9.55
Both score in both halves 4.0% 5.0% 20.11
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 84.4% 82.9% 1.21
Both teams to score by HT 15.6% 17.1% 5.86
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half without a goal 51.8% 53.3% 1.88
A goal in each half 48.2% 46.7% 2.14
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 47.0% 47.4% 44.9% 1.06× 2.11
0-1 goals 30.3% 30.7% 26.4% 1.16× 3.26
4-6 goals 21.5% 22.8% 27.2% 0.84× 4.38
7+ goals 1.2% 1.8% 1.8% 1.01× 55.31
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Mansfield Town to score exactly 1 36.5% 36.0% 36.3% 0.99× 2.78
Mansfield Town to score exactly 0 32.2% 33.9% 30.6% 1.11× 2.95
Mansfield Town to score exactly 2 20.7% 22.4% 21.7% 1.03× 4.47
Mansfield Town to score 3+ 10.6% 12.8% 11.7% 1.10× 7.81
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Burton Albion to score exactly 1 35.5% 35.6% 36.1% 0.99× 2.81
Burton Albion to score exactly 0 27.4% 26.5% 21.9% 1.21× 3.77
Burton Albion to score exactly 2 23.0% 23.3% 22.5% 1.03× 4.30
Burton Albion to score 3+ 14.2% 14.4% 19.8% 0.73× 6.97
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 46.2% 52.4% 1.91
Burton Albion leading at HT 30.4% 33.8% 2.96
Mansfield Town leading at HT 23.4% 20.0% 5.00
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Burton Albion -1: 2 59.7% 56.7% 1.76
Burton Albion -1: X 22.2% 23.6% 4.24
Burton Albion -1: 1 18.1% 17.5% 5.71
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Mansfield Town (0:1) 59.7% 55.9% 54.8% 1.02× 1.79
Draw (0:1) 22.2% 24.3% 25.4% 0.95× 4.12
Burton Albion (0:1) 18.1% 17.8% 19.9% 0.89× 5.62
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Mansfield Town (0:2) 81.9% 82.8% 80.1% 1.03× 1.21
Draw (0:2) 11.8% 11.0% 9.9% 1.11× 9.09
Burton Albion (0:2) 6.4% 7.7% 10.2% 0.75× 12.99
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Mansfield Town (0:3) 93.6% 92.7% 89.8% 1.03× 1.08
Draw (0:3) 4.6% 2.4% 6.5% 0.37× 41.94
Burton Albion (0:3) 1.8% 2.4% 3.9% 0.61× 42.06
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Mansfield Town (0:4) 98.2% 98.1% 96.1% 1.02× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 1.4% 1.2% 2.8% 0.44× 83.31
Burton Albion (0:4) 0.4% 1.2% 1.3% 0.92× 83.43
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Burton Albion (1:0) 67.6% 69.9% 70.7% 0.99× 1.43
Draw (1:0) 19.4% 17.0% 17.3% 0.98× 5.87
Mansfield Town (1:0) 13.0% 12.8% 12.2% 1.05× 7.80
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Burton Albion (2:0) 87.0% 88.3% 87.8% 1.01× 1.13
Draw (2:0) 9.0% 6.5% 7.8% 0.83× 15.47
Mansfield Town (2:0) 4.1% 2.3% 4.5% 0.50× 44.15
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 46.4% 48.2% 2.08
1st half highest scoring 26.9% 26.5% 3.77
Halves equal 26.7% 26.5% 3.77
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Burton Albion to concede 67.8% 66.5% 69.4% 0.96× 1.50
Burton Albion clean sheet 32.2% 33.5% 30.6% 1.09× 2.99
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Burton Albion clean sheet in 1st half 63.6% 64.5% 1.55
Burton Albion to concede in 1st half 36.4% 35.5% 2.82
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Burton Albion under 3.5 goals 95.7% 96.3% 93.0% 1.04× 1.04
Burton Albion under 2.5 goals 85.8% 87.2% 80.2% 1.09× 1.15
Burton Albion over 0.5 goals 72.6% 74.2% 78.1% 0.95× 1.35
Burton Albion under 1.5 goals 62.8% 63.4% 57.9% 1.10× 1.58
Burton Albion over 1.5 goals 37.2% 36.6% 42.1% 0.87× 2.73
Burton Albion under 0.5 goals 27.4% 25.8% 21.9% 1.18× 3.88
Burton Albion over 2.5 goals 14.2% 12.8% 19.8% 0.65× 7.83
Burton Albion over 3.5 goals 4.3% 3.7% 7.0% 0.52× 27.37
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Burton Albion under 1.5 in 1st half 89.2% 90.0% 1.11
Burton Albion under 0.5 in 1st half 57.3% 57.3% 1.75
Burton Albion over 0.5 in 1st half 42.7% 42.7% 2.34
Burton Albion over 1.5 in 1st half 10.8% 10.0% 10.04
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Mansfield Town (home no bet) 54.2% 51.6% 53.4% 0.97× 1.94
Draw (home no bet) 45.8% 48.4% 46.6% 1.04× 2.07
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Burton Albion even goals 53.7% 50.7% 48.6% 1.04× 1.97
Burton Albion odd goals 46.3% 49.3% 51.4% 0.96× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 36.4% 38.4% 2.61
HT 1-0 20.3% 24.2% 4.14
HT 0-1 16.5% 18.9% 5.30
HT 1-1 9.2% 7.1% 14.07
HT 2-0 5.7% 7.1% 14.13
HT 0-2 3.7% 2.2% 44.64
Any other HT score 3.0% 2.2% 44.70
HT 2-1 2.6% 2.2% 44.74
HT 1-2 2.1% 2.2% 44.78
HT 2-2 0.6% 2.2% 44.90
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Burton Albion at HT / Burton Albion at FT 23.2% 22.2% 4.51
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 17.5% 16.8% 5.95
Mansfield Town at HT / Mansfield Town at FT 16.9% 16.8% 5.95
Draw at HT / Burton Albion at FT 15.2% 16.8% 5.96
Draw at HT / Mansfield Town at FT 13.5% 12.7% 7.89
Burton Albion at HT / Draw at FT 5.2% 6.0% 16.64
Mansfield Town at HT / Draw at FT 4.6% 3.4% 29.10
Burton Albion at HT / Mansfield Town at FT 2.0% 3.4% 29.20
Mansfield Town at HT / Burton Albion at FT 2.0% 3.4% 29.21
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Burton Albion to score last 48.7% 47.0% 2.13
Mansfield Town to score last 42.5% 40.1% 2.49
No goal scored 8.8% 7.4% 13.44
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 91.2% 92.7% 1.08
Burton Albion to lead by 1 at any time 55.2% 55.0% 1.82
Mansfield Town to lead by 1 at any time 48.2% 44.0% 2.27
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 41.2% 39.0% 2.57
Burton Albion to lead by 2 at any time 23.4% 19.6% 5.10
Mansfield Town to lead by 2 at any time 17.9% 14.9% 6.70
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 13.2% 10.5% 9.55
Burton Albion to lead by 3 at any time 7.9% 6.5% 15.30
Mansfield Town to lead by 3 at any time 5.3% 6.5% 15.44
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 87.5% 87.4% 89.0% 0.98× 1.14
1-4 goals 81.3% 83.5% 81.4% 1.03× 1.20
1-3 goals 68.5% 69.0% 65.2% 1.06× 1.45
2-6 goals 68.5% 69.0% 72.0% 0.96× 1.45
2-5 goals 66.0% 69.0% 68.7% 1.00× 1.45
2-4 goals 59.8% 59.2% 61.1% 0.97× 1.69
1-2 goals 47.4% 48.7% 42.3% 1.15× 2.06
2-3 goals 47.0% 48.7% 44.9% 1.08× 2.06
3-6 goals 42.5% 43.6% 50.1% 0.87× 2.29
3-5 goals 40.0% 43.6% 46.8% 0.93× 2.29
3-4 goals 33.8% 35.4% 39.2% 0.90× 2.83
4-6 goals 21.5% 24.4% 27.2% 0.90× 4.09
4-5 goals 19.0% 18.6% 24.0% 0.78× 5.37
5-6 goals 8.7% 8.7% 11.0% 0.79× 11.43
7+ goals 1.2% 2.5% 1.8% 1.42× 39.53
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Burton Albion never behind 43.0% 48.3% 2.07
Mansfield Town never behind 36.0% 44.7% 2.24
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 49.6% 50.8% 52.5% 0.97× 1.97
Even number of goals 50.4% 49.2% 47.5% 1.04× 2.03
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 56.6% 57.9% 1.73
Odd goals in 1st half 43.4% 42.1% 2.37
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 52.9% 52.0% 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 47.1% 48.0% 2.09
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 96.3% 95.5% 95.0% 1.01× 1.05
Over 0.5 goals 91.2% 92.3% 93.8% 0.98× 1.08
Under 4.5 goals 90.1% 92.3% 87.4% 1.06× 1.08
Under 3.5 goals 77.3% 77.4% 71.2% 1.09× 1.29
Over 1.5 goals 69.7% 66.3% 73.6% 0.90× 1.51
Under 2.5 goals 56.2% 58.8% 48.3% 1.22× 1.70
Over 2.5 goals 43.8% 41.2% 51.7% 0.80× 2.43
Under 1.5 goals 30.3% 33.7% 26.4% 1.28× 2.97
Over 3.5 goals 22.7% 22.6% 28.8% 0.78× 4.42
Over 4.5 goals 9.9% 7.7% 12.6% 0.61× 12.94
Under 0.5 goals 8.8% 7.7% 6.2% 1.25× 12.94
Over 5.5 goals 3.7% 4.5% 5.0% 0.90× 22.19
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 98.7% 97.3% 98.2% 0.99× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 96.0% 97.2% 94.6% 1.03× 1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 88.6% 86.7% 84.9% 1.02× 1.15
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 71.2% 72.6% 62.6% 1.16× 1.38
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 59.1% 55.6% 66.2% 0.84× 1.80
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 40.9% 44.4% 33.8% 1.31× 2.25
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 28.8% 27.4% 37.4% 0.73× 3.65
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 11.4% 13.3% 15.1% 0.88× 7.54
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 4.0% 2.8% 5.4% 0.51× 36.33
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 1.3% 2.7% 1.8% 1.49× 36.41
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 91.8% 92.8% 1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half 73.2% 71.1% 1.41
Over 0.5 in 1st half 63.6% 63.7% 1.57
Under 0.5 in 1st half 36.4% 36.3% 2.76
Over 1.5 in 1st half 26.8% 28.9% 3.46
Over 2.5 in 1st half 8.2% 7.2% 13.90
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 82.9% 82.9% 1.21
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 75.8% 79.9% 1.25
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 58.6% 54.9% 1.82
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 41.4% 45.1% 2.22
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 24.2% 20.1% 4.97
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 17.1% 17.1% 5.86
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Mansfield Town not to score in both halves 82.0% 84.3% 1.19
Burton Albion not to score in both halves 77.7% 78.4% 1.28
Burton Albion to score in both halves 22.3% 21.6% 4.63
Mansfield Town to score in both halves 18.0% 15.7% 6.35
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 49.2% 50.4% 53.6% 0.94× 1.99
Only Burton Albion scores 23.4% 22.4% 24.6% 0.91× 4.47
Only Mansfield Town scores 18.6% 16.1% 15.9% 1.02× 6.20
Neither team scores 8.8% 7.2% 6.2% 1.17× 13.93
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 26.0% 25.0% 22.0% 1.13× 4.01
Exactly 1 goals 21.5% 22.6% 20.4% 1.11× 4.42
Exactly 3 goals 21.0% 22.6% 23.0% 0.98× 4.42
Exactly 4 goals 12.8% 12.1% 16.4% 0.74× 8.29
Exactly 0 goals 8.8% 7.6% 6.2% 1.24× 13.13
Exactly 5 goals 6.2% 7.6% 7.8% 0.98× 13.14
6 or more goals 3.7% 4.4% 5.0% 0.88× 22.62
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 41.4% 44.2% 2.26
1 goal in 2nd half 34.4% 33.9% 2.95
No goals in 2nd half 24.2% 23.6% 4.25
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Mansfield Town not to win both halves 93.2% 94.0% 1.06
Burton Albion not to win both halves 90.0% 93.9% 1.07
Burton Albion to win both halves 10.0% 6.1% 16.39
Mansfield Town to win both halves 6.8% 6.0% 16.62
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Mansfield Town to win neither half 54.2% 54.8% 1.82
Burton Albion to win either half 53.2% 54.8% 1.83
Burton Albion to win neither half 46.8% 45.2% 2.21
Mansfield Town to win either half 45.8% 45.2% 2.21
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Mansfield Town not to win to nil 81.4% 83.0% 84.1% 0.99× 1.21
Burton Albion not to win to nil 76.6% 78.0% 75.4% 1.04× 1.28
Burton Albion to win to nil 23.4% 22.0% 24.6% 0.89× 4.55
Mansfield Town to win to nil 18.6% 17.0% 15.9% 1.07× 5.87
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 27.3% 27.8% 25.6% 1.09× 3.59
Burton Albion by 1 22.2% 24.1% 25.4% 0.95× 4.14
Mansfield Town by 1 19.4% 16.9% 17.3% 0.98× 5.90
Burton Albion by 2 11.8% 11.8% 9.9% 1.20× 8.46
Mansfield Town by 2 9.0% 7.2% 7.8% 0.93× 13.80
Burton Albion by 3+ 6.4% 7.2% 10.2% 0.71× 13.81
Mansfield Town by 3+ 4.1% 2.7% 4.5% 0.60× 36.94
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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