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Cambridge United v Reading — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 12 September 2026 · ENG-League One · 2627

ENG-League One results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

dc-xg No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.
Cambridge United win
38.8%
Draw
22.6%
Reading win
38.6%

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
dc-xg 1.71–1.71 1-1 10% 66% 67%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cambridge United to win 38.8% 36.5% 45.2% 0.81× 2.74
Reading to win 38.6% 36.5% 29.3% 1.24× 2.74
Draw 22.6% 24.4% 25.6% 0.95× 4.09
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cambridge United & both teams score 23.9% 21.9% 20.7% 1.06× 4.57
Reading & both teams score 23.8% 21.9% 13.6% 1.61× 4.57
Draw & both teams score 19.3% 17.9% 19.6% 0.91× 5.58
Cambridge United & not both score 14.9% 13.3% 24.6% 0.54× 7.55
Reading & not both score 14.8% 13.3% 15.9% 0.83× 7.55
Draw & not both score 3.3% 4.9% 6.2% 0.79× 20.51
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cambridge United & over 1.5 33.2% 30.9% 33.1% 0.93× 3.24
Reading & over 1.5 33.0% 30.9% 21.2% 1.45× 3.24
Cambridge United & over 2.5 28.4% 26.0% 27.7% 0.94× 3.84
Reading & over 2.5 28.2% 26.0% 17.0% 1.53× 3.84
Cambridge United & under 3.5 21.4% 21.6% 31.4% 0.69× 4.62
Reading & under 3.5 21.3% 21.6% 21.6% 1.00× 4.62
Draw & over 1.5 19.3% 18.0% 19.6% 0.92× 5.56
Cambridge United & over 3.5 17.4% 18.0% 13.9% 1.29× 5.56
Reading & over 3.5 17.3% 18.0% 7.9% 2.27× 5.56
Draw & under 2.5 12.8% 12.9% 18.5% 0.70× 7.78
Draw & under 3.5 12.8% 12.9% 18.5% 0.70× 7.78
Cambridge United & under 2.5 10.4% 12.9% 17.7% 0.73× 7.78
Reading & under 2.5 10.4% 12.9% 12.5% 1.03× 7.78
Draw & over 2.5 9.7% 7.9% 7.3% 1.08× 12.69
Draw & over 3.5 9.7% 7.9% 7.3% 1.08× 12.69
Cambridge United & under 1.5 5.6% 7.9% 12.3% 0.64× 12.69
Reading & under 1.5 5.6% 7.9% 8.3% 0.95× 12.69
Draw & under 1.5 3.3% 4.8% 6.2% 0.78× 20.93
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cambridge United (1UP) 58.6% 58.1% 1.72
Reading (1UP) 58.5% 58.0% 1.72
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cambridge United (2UP) 38.8% 37.1% 2.70
Reading (2UP) 38.6% 37.1% 2.70
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Reading to win 2nd half 35.9% 36.0% 2.78
Cambridge United to win 2nd half 33.3% 34.5% 2.90
2nd half drawn 30.9% 34.4% 2.91
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Reading (+2.5) 91.7% 92.1% 89.8% 1.03× 1.09
Reading (+1.5) 80.1% 82.4% 80.1% 1.03× 1.21
Cambridge United (+0.5) 61.4% 62.9% 70.7% 0.89× 1.59
Reading (+0.5) 61.2% 62.9% 54.8% 1.15× 1.59
Cambridge United (-0.5) 38.8% 37.1% 45.2% 0.82× 2.69
Reading (-0.5) 38.6% 37.1% 29.3% 1.27× 2.69
Cambridge United (-1.5) 19.9% 17.6% 19.9% 0.88× 5.68
Cambridge United (-2.5) 8.3% 7.9% 10.2% 0.77× 12.66
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Reading to concede 81.9% 81.3% 78.1% 1.04× 1.23
Reading clean sheet 18.1% 18.7% 21.9% 0.86× 5.34
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Reading clean sheet in 1st half 47.9% 50.9% 1.97
Reading to concede in 1st half 52.1% 49.1% 2.04
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Reading under 3.5 goals 90.6% 92.3% 96.8% 0.95× 1.08
Reading over 0.5 goals 81.8% 81.5% 69.4% 1.17× 1.23
Reading under 2.5 goals 75.6% 76.2% 88.3% 0.86× 1.31
Reading over 1.5 goals 50.9% 53.7% 33.2% 1.62× 1.86
Reading under 1.5 goals 49.1% 46.3% 66.8% 0.69× 2.16
Reading over 2.5 goals 24.4% 23.8% 11.7% 2.04× 4.20
Reading under 0.5 goals 18.2% 18.5% 30.6% 0.60× 5.40
Reading over 3.5 goals 9.4% 7.7% 3.2% 2.36× 13.05
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Reading under 1.5 in 1st half 85.0% 89.4% 1.12
Reading under 0.5 in 1st half 50.5% 55.7% 1.80
Reading over 0.5 in 1st half 49.5% 44.3% 2.26
Reading over 1.5 in 1st half 15.0% 10.6% 9.45
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cambridge United (away no bet) 63.2% 62.1% 63.8% 0.97× 1.61
Draw (away no bet) 36.8% 37.9% 36.2% 1.05× 2.64
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Reading even goals 51.7% 52.7% 54.6% 0.97× 1.90
Reading odd goals 48.4% 47.3% 45.4% 1.04× 2.12
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 75.4% 82.0% 1.22
Both halves over 1.5 goals 24.6% 18.0% 5.56
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 76.2% 72.6% 1.38
Both halves under 1.5 goals 23.8% 27.4% 3.65
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 67.0% 62.2% 1.61
Cambridge United to score 2+ in a row 39.3% 36.4% 2.75
Reading to score 2+ in a row 39.1% 36.4% 2.75
Either team to score 3+ in a row 27.3% 25.2% 3.97
Cambridge United to score 3+ in a row 14.0% 12.0% 8.31
Reading to score 3+ in a row 14.0% 12.0% 8.31
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 9.6% 7.4% 12.5% 0.60× 13.46
1-2 8.2% 7.4% 7.5% 1.00× 13.46
2-1 8.2% 7.4% 9.6% 0.78× 13.46
2-2 7.0% 7.4% 6.0% 1.24× 13.46
0-1 5.6% 7.4% 8.3% 0.90× 13.46
1-0 5.6% 7.4% 12.3% 0.60× 13.46
Any other score 5.9% 7.4% 3.4% 2.18× 13.46
0-2 4.8% 1.7% 4.4% 0.39× 58.56
1-3 4.6% 1.7% 3.4% 0.50× 58.57
2-0 4.8% 1.7% 5.5% 0.31× 58.56
3-1 4.7% 1.7% 4.1% 0.42× 58.57
0-0 3.3% 1.7% 6.2% 0.28× 58.57
0-3 2.7% 1.7% 1.9% 0.88× 58.58
0-4 1.2% 1.7% 1.6% 1.05× 58.59
1-4 2.0% 1.7% 0.6% 2.63× 58.58
2-3 4.0% 1.7% 1.8% 0.96× 58.57
2-4 1.7% 1.7% 0.3% 5.27× 58.58
3-0 2.7% 1.7% 4.5% 0.38× 58.58
3-2 4.0% 1.7% 3.2% 0.53× 58.57
3-3 2.3% 1.7% 1.5% 1.17× 58.58
3-4 1.0% 1.7% 0.3% 5.27× 58.59
4-0 1.2% 1.7% 1.9% 0.88× 58.59
4-1 2.0% 1.7% 1.6% 1.05× 58.58
4-2 1.7% 1.7% 0.6% 2.63× 58.58
4-3 1.0% 1.7% 0.6% 2.63× 58.59
4-4 0.4% 1.7% 0.2% 10.53× 58.59
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cambridge United leading at HT (DNB) 52.6% 55.7% 1.80
Reading leading at HT (DNB) 47.4% 44.3% 2.26
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cambridge United or Reading (12) 77.4% 75.6% 74.4% 1.02× 1.32
Cambridge United or draw (1X) 61.4% 63.5% 70.7% 0.90× 1.57
Reading or draw (X2) 61.2% 63.5% 54.8% 1.16× 1.57
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cambridge United or draw at HT 70.6% 74.6% 1.34
Reading or draw at HT 67.4% 66.1% 1.51
Cambridge United or Reading at HT 62.0% 62.2% 1.61
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cambridge United or draw (1UP) 61.4% 71.3% 1.40
Reading or draw (1UP) 61.2% 71.2% 1.40
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cambridge United or Reading in 2nd half 69.2% 65.6% 1.53
Reading or draw in 2nd half 66.7% 65.5% 1.53
Cambridge United or draw in 2nd half 64.1% 64.0% 1.56
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 57.1% 58.3% 1.72
Neither half drawn 42.9% 41.7% 2.40
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cambridge United (DNB) 50.1% 50.9% 60.7% 0.84× 1.97
Reading (DNB) 49.9% 49.1% 39.3% 1.25× 2.04
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cambridge United to score first 48.4% 45.6% 2.19
Reading to score first 48.3% 45.6% 2.19
No goal scored 3.3% 4.3% 23.06
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 67.0% 58.1% 53.6% 1.08× 1.72
Not both teams to score 33.0% 41.9% 46.4% 0.90× 2.39
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 57.5% 47.2% 41.3% 1.14× 2.12
Not both score & under 2.5 24.1% 27.7% 36.0% 0.77× 3.61
Both score & under 2.5 9.6% 8.4% 12.5% 0.67× 11.95
Not both score & over 2.5 8.9% 8.4% 10.5% 0.79× 11.96
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 74.1% 80.7% 85.9% 0.94× 1.24
Both teams to score 2+ 25.9% 19.3% 14.1% 1.37× 5.17
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 60.1% 65.9% 1.52
Both teams to score in 2nd half 39.9% 34.1% 2.94
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 44.6% 50.4% 1.99
Both score 2nd half only 29.6% 26.1% 3.83
Both score 1st half only 15.5% 15.6% 6.43
Both score in both halves 10.3% 10.4% 9.57
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 74.3% 80.1% 1.25
Both teams to score by HT 25.7% 19.9% 5.04
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 65.5% 66.6% 1.50
A half without a goal 34.5% 33.4% 2.99
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 41.0% 42.1% 44.9% 0.94× 2.38
4-6 goals 38.6% 35.0% 27.2% 1.29× 2.86
0-1 goals 14.5% 17.0% 26.4% 0.64× 5.90
7+ goals 5.9% 7.6% 1.8% 4.26× 13.18
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Reading to score exactly 1 31.0% 33.9% 36.3% 0.93× 2.95
Reading to score exactly 2 26.4% 27.4% 21.7% 1.26× 3.65
Reading to score 3+ 24.4% 22.4% 11.7% 1.92× 4.47
Reading to score exactly 0 18.2% 19.5% 30.6% 0.64× 5.12
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cambridge United to score exactly 1 30.9% 32.6% 36.1% 0.90× 3.06
Cambridge United to score exactly 2 26.4% 26.5% 22.5% 1.18× 3.77
Cambridge United to score 3+ 24.5% 23.3% 19.8% 1.18× 4.30
Cambridge United to score exactly 0 18.1% 18.9% 21.9% 0.86× 5.30
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 38.0% 37.8% 2.64
Cambridge United leading at HT 32.6% 33.9% 2.95
Reading leading at HT 29.4% 25.4% 3.93
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cambridge United -1: 2 61.2% 62.4% 1.60
Cambridge United -1: 1 19.9% 17.5% 5.70
Cambridge United -1: X 18.9% 17.5% 5.70
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Reading (0:1) 61.2% 61.3% 54.8% 1.12× 1.63
Cambridge United (0:1) 19.9% 17.8% 19.9% 0.89× 5.62
Draw (0:1) 18.9% 17.8% 25.4% 0.70× 5.62
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Reading (0:2) 80.1% 82.7% 80.1% 1.03× 1.21
Draw (0:2) 11.6% 11.0% 9.9% 1.11× 9.09
Cambridge United (0:2) 8.3% 7.7% 10.2% 0.76× 12.97
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Reading (0:3) 91.7% 92.6% 89.8% 1.03× 1.08
Draw (0:3) 5.4% 5.8% 6.5% 0.89× 17.27
Cambridge United (0:3) 2.9% 2.4% 3.9% 0.61× 42.01
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Reading (0:4) 97.1% 98.1% 96.1% 1.02× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 2.0% 1.2% 2.8% 0.44× 83.23
Cambridge United (0:4) 0.9% 1.2% 1.3% 0.93× 83.37
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cambridge United (1:0) 61.4% 65.1% 70.7% 0.92× 1.54
Reading (1:0) 19.7% 17.0% 12.2% 1.40× 5.87
Draw (1:0) 18.9% 17.0% 17.3% 0.98× 5.87
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cambridge United (2:0) 80.3% 84.5% 87.8% 0.96× 1.18
Draw (2:0) 11.5% 10.4% 7.8% 1.34× 9.62
Reading (2:0) 8.3% 6.5% 4.5% 1.42× 15.48
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 51.1% 50.2% 1.99
1st half highest scoring 27.3% 26.5% 3.77
Halves equal 21.7% 24.2% 4.13
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cambridge United to concede 81.8% 80.8% 69.4% 1.16× 1.24
Cambridge United clean sheet 18.2% 19.2% 30.6% 0.63× 5.20
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cambridge United clean sheet in 1st half 50.5% 55.7% 1.80
Cambridge United to concede in 1st half 49.5% 44.3% 2.26
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cambridge United under 3.5 goals 90.5% 92.2% 93.0% 0.99× 1.08
Cambridge United over 0.5 goals 81.9% 82.1% 78.1% 1.05× 1.22
Cambridge United under 2.5 goals 75.5% 77.7% 80.2% 0.97× 1.29
Cambridge United over 1.5 goals 51.0% 53.3% 42.1% 1.26× 1.88
Cambridge United under 1.5 goals 49.0% 46.7% 57.9% 0.81× 2.14
Cambridge United over 2.5 goals 24.5% 22.3% 19.8% 1.13× 4.48
Cambridge United under 0.5 goals 18.1% 17.9% 21.9% 0.82× 5.60
Cambridge United over 3.5 goals 9.5% 7.8% 7.0% 1.12× 12.87
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cambridge United under 1.5 in 1st half 83.2% 84.7% 1.18
Cambridge United under 0.5 in 1st half 47.9% 51.0% 1.96
Cambridge United over 0.5 in 1st half 52.1% 49.0% 2.04
Cambridge United over 1.5 in 1st half 16.8% 15.3% 6.54
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Reading (home no bet) 63.1% 60.2% 53.4% 1.13× 1.66
Draw (home no bet) 36.9% 39.8% 46.6% 0.85× 2.51
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cambridge United even goals 51.6% 50.6% 48.6% 1.04× 1.98
Cambridge United odd goals 48.4% 49.4% 51.4% 0.96× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 24.2% 24.3% 4.12
HT 1-0 17.8% 18.9% 5.30
HT 0-1 16.5% 18.9% 5.30
HT 1-1 12.2% 11.1% 9.05
Any other HT score 6.9% 7.1% 14.11
HT 2-0 6.6% 7.1% 14.12
HT 0-2 5.6% 7.1% 14.13
HT 2-1 4.5% 2.2% 44.59
HT 1-2 4.1% 2.2% 44.61
HT 2-2 1.5% 2.2% 44.82
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cambridge United at HT / Cambridge United at FT 23.3% 22.2% 4.51
Reading at HT / Reading at FT 21.6% 22.1% 4.52
Draw at HT / Reading at FT 13.6% 12.7% 7.89
Draw at HT / Cambridge United at FT 12.7% 12.7% 7.89
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 11.7% 12.7% 7.90
Cambridge United at HT / Draw at FT 5.8% 6.0% 16.62
Reading at HT / Draw at FT 5.0% 6.0% 16.64
Cambridge United at HT / Reading at FT 3.5% 3.4% 29.15
Reading at HT / Cambridge United at FT 2.8% 3.4% 29.17
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cambridge United to score last 48.4% 47.0% 2.13
Reading to score last 48.3% 47.0% 2.13
No goal scored 3.3% 4.3% 23.06
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 96.7% 95.6% 1.05
Cambridge United to lead by 1 at any time 58.6% 55.1% 1.82
Reading to lead by 1 at any time 58.5% 55.1% 1.82
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 55.7% 55.0% 1.82
Cambridge United to lead by 2 at any time 28.2% 25.2% 3.97
Reading to lead by 2 at any time 28.0% 25.2% 3.97
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 22.3% 19.6% 5.10
Cambridge United to lead by 3 at any time 11.2% 10.4% 9.59
Reading to lead by 3 at any time 11.1% 10.4% 9.59
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 83.6% 83.5% 89.0% 0.94× 1.20
2-6 goals 79.6% 78.6% 72.0% 1.09× 1.27
2-5 goals 72.3% 72.4% 68.7% 1.05× 1.38
1-4 goals 70.9% 72.4% 81.4% 0.89× 1.38
3-6 goals 60.4% 63.5% 50.1% 1.27× 1.58
2-4 goals 59.6% 59.2% 61.1% 0.97× 1.69
3-5 goals 53.2% 53.1% 46.8% 1.13× 1.88
1-3 goals 52.2% 53.1% 65.2% 0.82× 1.88
2-3 goals 41.0% 43.6% 44.9% 0.97× 2.29
3-4 goals 40.5% 43.6% 39.2% 1.11× 2.29
4-6 goals 38.6% 39.2% 27.2% 1.44× 2.55
4-5 goals 31.4% 35.4% 24.0% 1.47× 2.83
1-2 goals 30.4% 35.4% 42.3% 0.84× 2.83
5-6 goals 20.0% 18.6% 11.0% 1.69× 5.37
7+ goals 5.9% 8.7% 1.8% 4.90× 11.45
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cambridge United never behind 38.3% 44.9% 2.23
Reading never behind 38.1% 44.9% 2.23
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 50.0% 50.8% 52.5% 0.97× 1.97
Even number of goals 50.0% 49.2% 47.5% 1.04× 2.03
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 52.9% 51.5% 1.94
Odd goals in 1st half 47.1% 48.5% 2.06
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 50.9% 52.0% 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 49.1% 48.0% 2.08
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 goals 96.7% 95.5% 93.8% 1.02× 1.05
Under 5.5 goals 86.9% 87.7% 95.0% 0.92× 1.14
Over 1.5 goals 85.5% 87.7% 73.6% 1.19× 1.14
Under 4.5 goals 74.1% 72.5% 87.4% 0.83× 1.38
Over 2.5 goals 66.3% 66.3% 51.7% 1.28× 1.51
Under 3.5 goals 55.5% 58.8% 71.2% 0.83× 1.70
Over 3.5 goals 44.5% 41.2% 28.8% 1.43× 2.43
Under 2.5 goals 33.7% 33.7% 48.3% 0.70× 2.96
Over 4.5 goals 25.9% 27.5% 12.6% 2.17× 3.64
Under 1.5 goals 14.5% 12.3% 26.4% 0.47× 8.11
Over 5.5 goals 13.1% 12.3% 5.0% 2.45× 8.11
Under 0.5 goals 3.3% 4.5% 6.2% 0.73× 22.20
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 93.7% 92.5% 98.2% 0.94× 1.08
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 85.0% 81.1% 94.6% 0.86× 1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 82.0% 81.1% 66.2% 1.23× 1.23
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 68.2% 67.3% 84.9% 0.79× 1.49
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 56.9% 55.5% 37.4% 1.48× 1.80
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 43.1% 44.5% 62.6% 0.71× 2.25
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 31.8% 32.7% 15.1% 2.16× 3.06
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 18.0% 18.9% 33.8% 0.56× 5.30
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 15.0% 18.9% 5.4% 3.47× 5.30
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 6.3% 7.5% 1.8% 4.09× 13.27
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 82.9% 86.5% 1.16
Over 0.5 in 1st half 75.8% 78.6% 1.27
Under 1.5 in 1st half 58.6% 64.0% 1.56
Over 1.5 in 1st half 41.4% 36.0% 2.78
Under 0.5 in 1st half 24.2% 21.4% 4.67
Over 2.5 in 1st half 17.1% 13.5% 7.38
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 86.4% 85.4% 1.17
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 67.7% 67.1% 1.49
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 59.3% 55.0% 1.82
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 40.7% 45.0% 2.22
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 32.3% 32.9% 3.04
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 13.6% 14.6% 6.83
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Reading not to score in both halves 68.3% 70.1% 1.43
Cambridge United not to score in both halves 67.6% 70.1% 1.43
Cambridge United to score in both halves 32.4% 29.9% 3.34
Reading to score in both halves 31.7% 29.9% 3.34
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 67.0% 59.5% 53.6% 1.11× 1.68
Only Cambridge United scores 14.9% 11.0% 24.6% 0.44× 9.13
Only Reading scores 14.8% 11.0% 15.9% 0.69× 9.13
Neither team scores 3.3% 4.6% 6.2% 0.75× 21.75
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 3 goals 21.8% 22.6% 23.0% 0.98× 4.42
Exactly 2 goals 19.2% 17.5% 22.0% 0.79× 5.73
Exactly 4 goals 18.6% 17.5% 16.4% 1.07× 5.73
6 or more goals 13.1% 12.1% 5.0% 2.40× 8.29
Exactly 5 goals 12.7% 12.1% 7.8% 1.55× 8.29
Exactly 1 goals 11.2% 12.1% 20.4% 0.59× 8.29
Exactly 0 goals 3.3% 4.4% 6.2% 0.72× 22.62
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 59.3% 53.5% 1.87
1 goal in 2nd half 27.1% 29.6% 3.38
No goals in 2nd half 13.6% 14.5% 6.89
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Reading not to win both halves 89.5% 88.1% 1.14
Cambridge United not to win both halves 89.2% 88.1% 1.14
Cambridge United to win both halves 10.8% 11.9% 8.42
Reading to win both halves 10.5% 11.9% 8.43
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cambridge United to win either half 55.0% 59.3% 1.69
Reading to win either half 54.7% 54.8% 1.82
Reading to win neither half 45.3% 45.2% 2.21
Cambridge United to win neither half 45.0% 40.7% 2.46
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Reading not to win to nil 85.2% 88.2% 84.1% 1.05× 1.13
Cambridge United not to win to nil 85.1% 88.2% 75.4% 1.17× 1.13
Cambridge United to win to nil 14.9% 11.8% 24.6% 0.48× 8.47
Reading to win to nil 14.8% 11.8% 15.9% 0.74× 8.47
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 22.6% 24.1% 25.6% 0.94× 4.14
Cambridge United by 1 18.9% 16.9% 25.4% 0.67× 5.90
Reading by 1 18.9% 16.9% 17.3% 0.98× 5.90
Cambridge United by 2 11.6% 11.8% 9.9% 1.20× 8.46
Reading by 2 11.5% 11.8% 7.8% 1.52× 8.46
Cambridge United by 3+ 8.3% 7.2% 10.2% 0.71× 13.80
Reading by 3+ 8.3% 7.2% 4.5% 1.60× 13.80
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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