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Oxford United v Cambridge United — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 19 September 2026 · ENG-League One · 2627

ENG-League One results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

dc-xg No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.
Oxford United win
70.6%
Draw
19.4%
Cambridge United win
10.0%

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
dc-xg 2.49–0.90 2-0 10% 66% 56%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oxford United to win 67.1% 65.1% 45.2% 1.44× 1.54
Cambridge United to win 17.1% 19.3% 29.3% 0.66× 5.18
Draw 15.8% 19.3% 25.6% 0.75× 5.18
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oxford United & both teams score 45.8% 42.7% 20.7% 2.06× 2.34
Oxford United & not both score 21.3% 21.9% 24.6% 0.89× 4.57
Draw & both teams score 14.7% 13.3% 19.6% 0.68× 7.55
Cambridge United & both teams score 13.0% 13.2% 13.6% 0.97× 7.55
Cambridge United & not both score 4.1% 4.9% 15.9% 0.31× 20.49
Draw & not both score 1.2% 4.9% 6.2% 0.79× 20.57
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oxford United & over 2.5 58.4% 55.1% 27.7% 1.99× 1.82
Oxford United & over 1.5 63.6% 54.9% 33.1% 1.66× 1.82
Oxford United & over 3.5 45.7% 45.2% 13.9% 3.24× 2.21
Oxford United & under 3.5 21.4% 21.6% 31.4% 0.69× 4.62
Cambridge United & over 1.5 15.3% 18.0% 21.2% 0.85× 5.56
Draw & over 1.5 14.7% 12.9% 19.6% 0.66× 7.77
Cambridge United & over 2.5 14.0% 12.9% 17.0% 0.76× 7.77
Oxford United & under 2.5 8.7% 7.9% 17.7% 0.45× 12.69
Draw & over 2.5 9.4% 7.9% 7.3% 1.08× 12.69
Draw & over 3.5 9.4% 7.9% 7.3% 1.08× 12.69
Cambridge United & over 3.5 9.4% 7.9% 7.9% 0.99× 12.69
Cambridge United & under 3.5 7.7% 7.9% 21.6% 0.37× 12.69
Draw & under 2.5 6.4% 7.9% 18.5% 0.43× 12.69
Draw & under 3.5 6.4% 7.9% 18.5% 0.43× 12.69
Oxford United & under 1.5 3.5% 4.8% 12.3% 0.39× 20.93
Cambridge United & under 2.5 3.1% 4.8% 12.5% 0.38× 20.94
Cambridge United & under 1.5 1.8% 4.8% 8.3% 0.58× 20.94
Draw & under 1.5 1.2% 4.8% 6.2% 0.78× 20.95
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oxford United (1UP) 81.4% 86.8% 1.15
Cambridge United (1UP) 41.3% 38.7% 2.58
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oxford United (2UP) 67.1% 68.9% 1.45
Cambridge United (2UP) 17.1% 17.2% 5.81
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oxford United to win 2nd half 55.8% 59.9% 1.67
2nd half drawn 24.2% 23.1% 4.34
Cambridge United to win 2nd half 20.0% 22.8% 4.38
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oxford United (+0.5) 82.9% 82.4% 70.7% 1.17× 1.21
Cambridge United (+2.5) 70.5% 73.7% 89.8% 0.82× 1.36
Oxford United (-0.5) 67.1% 68.7% 45.2% 1.52× 1.46
Cambridge United (+1.5) 52.3% 52.3% 80.1% 0.65× 1.91
Oxford United (-1.5) 47.7% 47.7% 19.9% 2.39× 2.10
Cambridge United (+0.5) 32.9% 31.3% 54.8% 0.57× 3.20
Oxford United (-2.5) 29.5% 26.3% 10.2% 2.58× 3.80
Cambridge United (-0.5) 17.1% 17.6% 29.3% 0.60× 5.68
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cambridge United to concede 94.7% 91.9% 78.1% 1.18× 1.09
Cambridge United clean sheet 5.3% 8.1% 21.9% 0.37× 12.29
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cambridge United to concede in 1st half 71.8% 77.2% 1.30
Cambridge United clean sheet in 1st half 28.2% 22.8% 4.38
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cambridge United under 3.5 goals 93.5% 92.4% 96.8% 0.95× 1.08
Cambridge United under 2.5 goals 81.1% 81.5% 88.3% 0.92× 1.23
Cambridge United over 0.5 goals 77.5% 76.2% 69.4% 1.10× 1.31
Cambridge United under 1.5 goals 56.1% 59.6% 66.8% 0.89× 1.68
Cambridge United over 1.5 goals 43.9% 40.4% 33.2% 1.22× 2.48
Cambridge United under 0.5 goals 22.5% 23.8% 30.6% 0.78× 4.21
Cambridge United over 2.5 goals 18.9% 18.5% 11.7% 1.59× 5.40
Cambridge United over 3.5 goals 6.5% 7.6% 3.2% 2.36× 13.08
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cambridge United under 1.5 in 1st half 87.9% 89.6% 1.12
Cambridge United under 0.5 in 1st half 55.1% 62.8% 1.59
Cambridge United over 0.5 in 1st half 44.9% 37.2% 2.69
Cambridge United over 1.5 in 1st half 12.1% 10.4% 9.59
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oxford United (away no bet) 80.9% 82.6% 63.8% 1.29× 1.21
Draw (away no bet) 19.1% 17.4% 36.2% 0.48× 5.75
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cambridge United even goals 52.5% 52.7% 54.6% 0.97× 1.90
Cambridge United odd goals 47.5% 47.3% 45.4% 1.04× 2.12
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 59.7% 55.5% 1.80
Both halves over 1.5 goals 40.3% 44.5% 2.25
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 87.8% 84.3% 1.19
Both halves under 1.5 goals 12.2% 15.7% 6.37
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 81.3% 80.1% 1.25
Oxford United to score 2+ in a row 69.3% 62.3% 1.60
Either team to score 3+ in a row 45.3% 45.9% 2.18
Oxford United to score 3+ in a row 39.3% 36.4% 2.75
Cambridge United to score 2+ in a row 28.0% 25.2% 3.97
Cambridge United to score 3+ in a row 7.4% 5.6% 17.94
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Any other score 18.8% 13.8% 3.4% 4.05× 7.26
2-1 7.7% 7.4% 9.6% 0.78× 13.46
3-1 7.5% 7.4% 4.1% 1.83× 13.46
1-1 5.2% 7.4% 12.5% 0.60× 13.46
2-0 5.1% 7.4% 5.5% 1.35× 13.46
2-2 5.7% 7.4% 6.0% 1.24× 13.46
3-0 5.0% 7.4% 4.5% 1.64× 13.46
3-2 5.6% 7.4% 3.2% 2.29× 13.46
4-1 5.5% 7.4% 1.6% 4.58× 13.46
0-0 1.2% 1.7% 6.2% 0.28× 58.59
0-1 1.8% 1.7% 8.3% 0.21× 58.58
0-2 1.3% 1.7% 4.4% 0.39× 58.59
0-3 0.7% 1.7% 1.9% 0.88× 58.59
0-4 0.2% 1.7% 1.6% 1.05× 58.59
1-0 3.5% 1.7% 12.3% 0.14× 58.57
1-2 3.9% 1.7% 7.5% 0.23× 58.57
1-3 1.9% 1.7% 3.4% 0.50× 58.58
1-4 0.7% 1.7% 0.6% 2.63× 58.59
2-3 2.8% 1.7% 1.8% 0.96× 58.58
2-4 1.1% 1.7% 0.3% 5.27× 58.59
3-3 2.8% 1.7% 1.5% 1.17× 58.58
3-4 1.0% 1.7% 0.3% 5.27× 58.59
4-0 3.7% 1.7% 1.9% 0.88× 58.57
4-2 4.1% 1.7% 0.6% 2.63× 58.57
4-3 2.1% 1.7% 0.6% 2.63× 58.58
4-4 0.8% 1.7% 0.2% 10.53× 58.59
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oxford United leading at HT (DNB) 75.0% 77.4% 1.29
Cambridge United leading at HT (DNB) 25.0% 22.6% 4.42
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oxford United or Cambridge United (12) 84.2% 80.7% 74.4% 1.08× 1.24
Oxford United or draw (1X) 82.9% 80.7% 70.7% 1.14× 1.24
Cambridge United or draw (X2) 32.9% 34.9% 54.8% 0.64× 2.86
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oxford United or draw at HT 82.4% 84.1% 1.19
Oxford United or Cambridge United at HT 70.3% 74.6% 1.34
Cambridge United or draw at HT 47.2% 52.4% 1.91
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oxford United or draw (1UP) 82.9% 88.5% 1.13
Cambridge United or draw (1UP) 41.3% 52.6% 1.90
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oxford United or draw in 2nd half 80.0% 77.2% 1.30
Oxford United or Cambridge United in 2nd half 75.8% 76.9% 1.30
Cambridge United or draw in 2nd half 44.2% 40.1% 2.49
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half drawn 53.3% 50.2% 1.99
A half drawn 46.7% 49.8% 2.01
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oxford United (DNB) 79.7% 74.7% 60.7% 1.23× 1.34
Cambridge United (DNB) 20.3% 25.3% 39.3% 0.64× 3.96
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oxford United to score first 65.6% 69.3% 1.44
Cambridge United to score first 33.3% 27.1% 3.69
No goal scored 1.2% 4.3% 23.41
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 73.4% 62.4% 53.6% 1.16× 1.60
Not both teams to score 26.6% 37.6% 46.4% 0.81× 2.66
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 68.2% 57.5% 41.3% 1.39× 1.74
Not both score & over 2.5 13.7% 12.3% 10.5% 1.17× 8.11
Not both score & under 2.5 12.9% 12.3% 36.0% 0.34× 8.11
Both score & under 2.5 5.2% 8.4% 12.5% 0.67× 11.98
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 65.2% 70.2% 85.9% 0.82× 1.43
Both teams to score 2+ 34.8% 29.8% 14.1% 2.12× 3.35
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 51.9% 54.9% 1.82
Both teams to score in 2nd half 48.1% 45.1% 2.22
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 35.2% 43.7% 2.29
Both score 2nd half only 32.6% 27.5% 3.63
Both score 1st half only 16.7% 15.6% 6.40
Both score in both halves 15.5% 15.6% 6.43
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 67.7% 70.0% 1.43
Both teams to score by HT 32.3% 30.0% 3.33
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 78.0% 80.3% 1.25
A half without a goal 22.0% 19.7% 5.07
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
4-6 goals 48.7% 47.4% 27.2% 1.74× 2.11
2-3 goals 29.0% 26.4% 44.9% 0.59× 3.78
7+ goals 15.9% 20.2% 1.8% 11.34× 4.95
0-1 goals 6.5% 7.6% 26.4% 0.29× 13.17
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cambridge United to score exactly 1 33.6% 33.9% 36.3% 0.93× 2.95
Cambridge United to score exactly 2 25.0% 27.4% 21.7% 1.26× 3.65
Cambridge United to score exactly 0 22.5% 22.4% 30.6% 0.73× 4.47
Cambridge United to score 3+ 18.9% 19.6% 11.7% 1.68× 5.12
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oxford United to score 3+ 56.3% 44.6% 19.8% 2.26× 2.24
Oxford United to score exactly 2 22.9% 23.3% 22.5% 1.03× 4.30
Oxford United to score exactly 1 15.6% 18.9% 36.1% 0.52× 5.30
Oxford United to score exactly 0 5.3% 10.3% 21.9% 0.47× 9.73
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oxford United leading at HT 52.8% 47.6% 2.10
Draw at HT 29.7% 25.4% 3.93
Cambridge United leading at HT 17.6% 15.9% 6.30
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oxford United -1: 1 47.7% 46.9% 2.13
Oxford United -1: 2 32.9% 30.0% 3.33
Oxford United -1: X 19.4% 17.5% 5.70
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oxford United (0:1) 47.7% 45.9% 19.9% 2.30× 2.18
Cambridge United (0:1) 32.9% 30.0% 54.8% 0.55× 3.34
Draw (0:1) 19.4% 17.8% 25.4% 0.70× 5.62
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cambridge United (0:2) 52.3% 58.3% 80.1% 0.73× 1.72
Oxford United (0:2) 29.5% 24.1% 10.2% 2.36× 4.16
Draw (0:2) 18.3% 15.3% 9.9% 1.55× 6.53
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cambridge United (0:3) 70.5% 77.6% 89.8% 0.86× 1.29
Oxford United (0:3) 15.7% 16.0% 3.9% 4.12× 6.24
Draw (0:3) 13.7% 10.0% 6.5% 1.55× 9.95
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cambridge United (0:4) 84.3% 87.2% 96.1% 0.91× 1.15
Draw (0:4) 8.4% 4.6% 2.8% 1.69× 21.52
Oxford United (0:4) 7.3% 4.6% 1.3% 3.57× 21.62
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oxford United (1:0) 82.9% 81.5% 70.7% 1.15× 1.23
Draw (1:0) 9.8% 6.9% 17.3% 0.40× 14.44
Cambridge United (1:0) 7.2% 6.9% 12.2% 0.57× 14.49
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oxford United (2:0) 92.8% 93.9% 87.8% 1.07× 1.06
Draw (2:0) 4.7% 2.3% 7.8% 0.29× 44.11
Cambridge United (2:0) 2.5% 2.3% 4.5% 0.50× 44.25
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 53.5% 50.3% 1.99
1st half highest scoring 27.9% 26.5% 3.77
Halves equal 18.6% 18.8% 5.32
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oxford United to concede 77.5% 75.9% 69.4% 1.09× 1.32
Oxford United clean sheet 22.5% 24.1% 30.6% 0.79× 4.14
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oxford United clean sheet in 1st half 55.1% 62.8% 1.59
Oxford United to concede in 1st half 44.9% 37.2% 2.69
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oxford United over 0.5 goals 94.7% 92.3% 78.1% 1.18× 1.08
Oxford United over 1.5 goals 79.2% 77.7% 42.1% 1.84× 1.29
Oxford United under 3.5 goals 66.2% 67.9% 93.0% 0.73× 1.47
Oxford United over 2.5 goals 56.3% 58.8% 19.8% 2.97× 1.70
Oxford United under 2.5 goals 43.7% 41.2% 80.2% 0.51× 2.43
Oxford United over 3.5 goals 33.8% 32.1% 7.0% 4.60× 3.12
Oxford United under 1.5 goals 20.8% 22.3% 57.9% 0.39× 4.49
Oxford United under 0.5 goals 5.3% 7.7% 21.9% 0.35× 12.91
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oxford United over 0.5 in 1st half 71.8% 79.2% 1.26
Oxford United under 1.5 in 1st half 63.9% 64.7% 1.55
Oxford United over 1.5 in 1st half 36.1% 35.3% 2.83
Oxford United under 0.5 in 1st half 28.2% 20.8% 4.82
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cambridge United (home no bet) 51.9% 51.6% 53.4% 0.97× 1.94
Draw (home no bet) 48.1% 48.4% 46.6% 1.04× 2.06
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oxford United even goals 50.1% 50.6% 48.6% 1.04× 1.98
Oxford United odd goals 49.9% 49.4% 51.4% 0.96× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 1-0 19.7% 18.9% 5.29
HT 0-0 15.5% 18.8% 5.31
Any other HT score 15.4% 18.8% 5.31
HT 2-0 12.4% 11.1% 9.05
HT 1-1 11.7% 11.0% 9.05
HT 0-1 9.3% 7.1% 14.07
HT 2-1 7.4% 7.1% 14.10
HT 1-2 3.5% 2.2% 44.66
HT 0-2 2.8% 2.2% 44.72
HT 2-2 2.2% 2.2% 44.76
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oxford United at HT / Oxford United at FT 46.0% 44.4% 2.25
Draw at HT / Oxford United at FT 16.6% 16.8% 5.96
Cambridge United at HT / Cambridge United at FT 9.0% 6.1% 16.53
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 7.2% 6.0% 16.58
Draw at HT / Cambridge United at FT 5.9% 6.0% 16.62
Oxford United at HT / Draw at FT 4.6% 3.4% 29.10
Cambridge United at HT / Oxford United at FT 4.6% 3.4% 29.10
Cambridge United at HT / Draw at FT 4.0% 3.4% 29.12
Oxford United at HT / Cambridge United at FT 2.1% 3.4% 29.20
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oxford United to score last 65.5% 69.5% 1.44
Cambridge United to score last 33.3% 32.9% 3.04
No goal scored 1.2% 4.3% 23.41
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 98.8% 95.7% 1.05
Oxford United to lead by 1 at any time 81.4% 86.9% 1.15
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 71.3% 74.0% 1.35
Oxford United to lead by 2 at any time 57.6% 55.0% 1.82
Cambridge United to lead by 1 at any time 41.3% 39.0% 2.57
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 39.8% 34.8% 2.87
Oxford United to lead by 3 at any time 35.2% 34.6% 2.89
Cambridge United to lead by 2 at any time 14.9% 10.5% 9.52
Cambridge United to lead by 3 at any time 4.6% 1.6% 61.22
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-6 goals 77.7% 78.6% 72.0% 1.09× 1.27
1-5 goals 70.4% 72.4% 89.0% 0.81× 1.38
3-6 goals 66.0% 69.0% 50.1% 1.38× 1.45
2-5 goals 65.1% 69.0% 68.7% 1.00× 1.45
1-4 goals 53.4% 53.1% 81.4% 0.65× 1.88
3-5 goals 53.4% 53.1% 46.8% 1.13× 1.88
4-6 goals 48.7% 48.7% 27.2% 1.79× 2.06
2-4 goals 48.1% 48.7% 61.1% 0.80× 2.06
3-4 goals 36.4% 39.2% 39.2% 1.00× 2.55
4-5 goals 36.1% 39.2% 24.0% 1.63× 2.55
1-3 goals 34.2% 35.4% 65.2% 0.54× 2.83
5-6 goals 29.5% 30.2% 11.0% 2.74× 3.31
2-3 goals 29.0% 30.2% 44.9% 0.67× 3.31
1-2 goals 17.0% 18.6% 42.3% 0.44× 5.37
7+ goals 15.9% 18.6% 1.8% 10.43× 5.38
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oxford United never behind 57.5% 62.6% 1.60
Cambridge United never behind 17.5% 18.5% 5.41
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even number of goals 50.0% 50.8% 47.5% 1.07× 1.97
Odd number of goals 50.0% 49.2% 52.5% 0.94× 2.03
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 51.2% 51.5% 1.94
Odd goals in 1st half 48.8% 48.5% 2.06
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 50.3% 52.0% 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 49.7% 48.0% 2.08
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 goals 98.8% 95.5% 93.8% 1.02× 1.05
Over 1.5 goals 93.5% 92.3% 73.6% 1.25× 1.08
Over 2.5 goals 81.8% 82.4% 51.7% 1.59× 1.21
Under 5.5 goals 71.6% 72.5% 95.0% 0.76× 1.38
Over 3.5 goals 64.6% 61.8% 28.8% 2.14× 1.62
Under 4.5 goals 54.6% 52.4% 87.4% 0.60× 1.91
Over 4.5 goals 45.4% 47.6% 12.6% 3.76× 2.10
Under 3.5 goals 35.4% 38.2% 71.2% 0.54× 2.62
Over 5.5 goals 28.4% 27.5% 5.0% 5.47× 3.64
Under 2.5 goals 18.2% 17.6% 48.3% 0.37× 5.67
Under 1.5 goals 6.5% 7.7% 26.4% 0.29× 12.95
Under 0.5 goals 1.2% 4.5% 6.2% 0.73× 22.24
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 92.7% 92.5% 66.2% 1.40× 1.08
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 81.8% 81.1% 98.2% 0.83× 1.23
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 78.1% 75.9% 37.4% 2.03× 1.32
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 65.8% 67.3% 94.6% 0.71× 1.49
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 56.2% 55.5% 15.1% 3.68× 1.80
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 43.8% 44.5% 84.9% 0.52× 2.25
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 34.2% 32.7% 5.4% 6.01× 3.06
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 21.9% 24.1% 62.6% 0.38× 4.16
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 18.2% 18.9% 1.8% 10.25× 5.30
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 7.3% 7.5% 33.8% 0.22× 13.27
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 1st half 84.5% 86.5% 1.16
Under 2.5 in 1st half 71.4% 71.1% 1.41
Over 1.5 in 1st half 55.5% 63.8% 1.57
Under 1.5 in 1st half 44.5% 36.2% 2.76
Over 2.5 in 1st half 28.6% 28.9% 3.46
Under 0.5 in 1st half 15.5% 13.5% 7.42
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 92.4% 89.6% 1.12
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 72.7% 77.9% 1.28
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 52.6% 53.1% 1.88
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 47.4% 46.9% 2.13
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 27.3% 22.1% 4.53
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 7.6% 10.4% 9.57
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cambridge United not to score in both halves 73.4% 74.3% 1.35
Oxford United to score in both halves 58.3% 57.7% 1.73
Oxford United not to score in both halves 41.7% 42.3% 2.36
Cambridge United to score in both halves 26.6% 25.7% 3.90
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 73.4% 66.5% 53.6% 1.24× 1.50
Only Oxford United scores 21.3% 22.4% 24.6% 0.91× 4.47
Only Cambridge United scores 4.1% 4.6% 15.9% 0.29× 21.71
Neither team scores 1.2% 4.6% 6.2% 0.74× 21.84
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
6 or more goals 28.4% 25.0% 5.0% 4.97× 4.01
Exactly 4 goals 19.2% 17.5% 16.4% 1.07× 5.73
Exactly 3 goals 17.3% 17.5% 23.0% 0.76× 5.73
Exactly 5 goals 17.0% 17.5% 7.8% 2.24× 5.73
Exactly 2 goals 11.7% 12.1% 22.0% 0.55× 8.29
Exactly 1 goals 5.3% 7.6% 20.4% 0.37× 13.14
Exactly 0 goals 1.2% 4.4% 6.2% 0.72× 22.65
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 72.7% 69.5% 1.44
1 goal in 2nd half 19.7% 17.0% 5.89
No goals in 2nd half 7.6% 9.9% 10.12
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cambridge United not to win both halves 96.5% 97.2% 1.03
Oxford United not to win both halves 70.6% 72.4% 1.38
Oxford United to win both halves 29.4% 27.6% 3.62
Cambridge United to win both halves 3.5% 2.8% 35.26
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oxford United to win either half 79.1% 80.0% 1.25
Cambridge United to win neither half 65.9% 67.7% 1.48
Cambridge United to win either half 34.1% 32.3% 3.10
Oxford United to win neither half 20.9% 20.0% 4.99
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cambridge United not to win to nil 95.9% 96.1% 84.1% 1.14× 1.04
Oxford United not to win to nil 78.7% 78.0% 75.4% 1.04× 1.28
Oxford United to win to nil 21.3% 22.0% 24.6% 0.89× 4.55
Cambridge United to win to nil 4.1% 3.9% 15.9% 0.24× 25.76
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oxford United by 3+ 29.5% 27.8% 10.2% 2.73× 3.59
Oxford United by 1 19.4% 16.9% 25.4% 0.67× 5.90
Oxford United by 2 18.3% 16.9% 9.9% 1.71× 5.90
Draw 15.8% 16.9% 25.6% 0.66× 5.90
Cambridge United by 1 9.8% 7.3% 17.3% 0.42× 13.79
Cambridge United by 2 4.7% 2.7% 7.8% 0.35× 36.92
Cambridge United by 3+ 2.5% 2.7% 4.5% 0.60× 36.99
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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