Parma Calcio 1913 v Verona — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 15 February 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
26 – 4
On target
7 – 1
Shots in box
11 – 2
xG per shot
0.08 – 0.21
Set-piece xG
0.22 – 0.82
Goals − xG
-0.17 – +0.14
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Parma Calcio 1913 win
40.3%
Draw
28.6%
Verona win
31.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Parma Calcio 1913 are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.4 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DDWWLLLWLL last 10
scored 7
from 7.5 xG
conceded 11
from 16.4 xG
Verona are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLLLLDDLDL last 10
scored 3
from 7.7 xG
conceded 12
from 15.9 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.21–1.02 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.23–1.07 | 1-1 13% | 40% | 46% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Parma Calcio 1913 2.17 xGVerona 0.86 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Parma Calcio 1913 attacking right
Verona attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Parma Calcio 1913 |
Adrián Bernabé | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Mandela Keita |
| 20' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Adrián Bernabé | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Enrico Del Prato |
| 29' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Lautaro Valenti | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 30' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Adrián Bernabé | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 31' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Sascha Britschgi | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Adrián Bernabé |
| 35' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Mateo Pellegrino | 0.58 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Sascha Britschgi |
| 36' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Mandela Keita | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Lautaro Valenti |
| 37' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Lautaro Valenti | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Mandela Keita |
| 42' |
 Verona |
Abdou Harroui | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 45' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Lautaro Valenti | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 45' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Sascha Britschgi | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Adrián Bernabé |
| 52' |
Verona |
Cheikh Niasse | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jean-Daniel Akpa-Akpro |
| 56' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Mateo Pellegrino | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Emanuele Valeri |
| 60' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Jacob Ondrejka | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Emanuele Valeri |
| 68' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Gabriel Strefezza | 0.08 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 70' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Gabriel Strefezza | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Alessandro Circati |
| 71' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Jacob Ondrejka | 0.19 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Hans Nicolussi Caviglia |
| 73' |
Verona |
Al Musrati | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Abdou Harroui |
| 74' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Hans Nicolussi Caviglia | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Adrián Bernabé |
| 76' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Mateo Pellegrino | 0.43 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Emanuele Valeri |
| 78' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Adrián Bernabé | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Gaetano Oristanio |
| 78' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Jacob Ondrejka | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Gabriel Strefezza |
| 79' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Gabriel Strefezza | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Enrico Del Prato |
| 81' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Gaetano Oristanio | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Emanuele Valeri |
| 81' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Jacob Ondrejka | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Gabriel Strefezza |
| 84' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Adrián Bernabé | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Gaetano Oristanio |
| 87' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Gaetano Oristanio | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Alessandro Circati |
| 90' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Hans Nicolussi Caviglia | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 92' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Mateo Pellegrino | 0.35 | Open Play | — | Goal | Hans Nicolussi Caviglia |
| 96' |
Verona |
Tobias Slotsager | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Domagoj Bradaric |
Players
Parma Calcio 1913
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateo Pellegrino FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1.42 | 0.00 | 1.67 |
| Adrián Bernabé MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 0.15 | 0.06 | 1.21 |
| Gabriel Strefezza FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.04 | 1.14 |
| Sascha Britschgi DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.58 | 1.28 |
| Enrico Del Prato DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.75 |
| Emanuele Valeri DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.58 | 1.85 |
| Edoardo Corvi GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.62 |
| Alessandro Circati DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.90 |
| Oliver Sørensen MC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.61 |
| Mandela Keita MC | 65 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.06 |
| Lautaro Valenti DC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.63 |
| Jacob Ondrejka Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 0.74 |
| Hans Nicolussi Caviglia Sub | 25 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.54 | 1.08 |
| Gaetano Oristanio Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.06 | 0.59 |
| Christian Ordóñez Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Verona
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Musrati MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Lorenzo Montipò GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Domagoj Bradaric DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.00 |
| Armel Bella Kotchap DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Andrias Edmundsson DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Victor Nelsson DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Abdou Harroui MC | 82 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.76 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Cheikh Niasse MC | 82 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Jean-Daniel Akpa-Akpro Sub | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Kieron Bowie FW | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Amin Sarr Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rafik Belghali DMR | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gift Orban FW | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tobias Slotsager Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Suat Serdar Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |