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Reading v Notts County — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 19 September 2026 · ENG-League One · 2627

ENG-League One results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

dc-xg No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.
Reading win
46.1%
Draw
24.9%
Notts County win
29.0%

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
dc-xg 1.57–1.20 1-1 12% 52% 55%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Reading to win 46.1% 47.5% 45.2% 1.05× 2.11
Notts County to win 29.0% 27.9% 29.3% 0.95× 3.59
Draw 24.9% 24.4% 25.6% 0.95× 4.09
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Reading & not both score 24.0% 21.9% 24.6% 0.89× 4.57
Reading & both teams score 22.1% 21.9% 20.7% 1.05× 4.57
Draw & both teams score 18.6% 17.9% 19.6% 0.91× 5.58
Notts County & both teams score 14.5% 13.3% 13.6% 0.97× 7.55
Notts County & not both score 14.5% 13.3% 15.9% 0.83× 7.55
Draw & not both score 6.3% 8.4% 6.2% 1.36× 11.95
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Reading & over 1.5 36.2% 34.9% 33.1% 1.06× 2.86
Reading & under 3.5 31.0% 30.9% 31.4% 0.98× 3.24
Reading & over 2.5 28.4% 26.0% 27.7% 0.94× 3.84
Notts County & over 1.5 21.5% 21.6% 21.2% 1.02× 4.62
Notts County & under 3.5 20.9% 21.6% 21.6% 1.00× 4.62
Draw & over 1.5 18.6% 18.0% 19.6% 0.92× 5.56
Reading & under 2.5 17.7% 18.0% 17.7% 1.02× 5.56
Draw & under 2.5 18.1% 18.0% 18.5% 0.97× 5.56
Draw & under 3.5 18.1% 18.0% 18.5% 0.97× 5.56
Notts County & over 2.5 17.0% 18.0% 17.0% 1.06× 5.56
Reading & over 3.5 15.1% 18.0% 13.9% 1.29× 5.56
Notts County & under 2.5 12.0% 12.9% 12.5% 1.03× 7.78
Reading & under 1.5 9.9% 7.9% 12.3% 0.64× 12.69
Notts County & under 1.5 7.5% 7.9% 8.3% 0.95× 12.69
Notts County & over 3.5 8.1% 7.9% 7.9% 0.99× 12.69
Draw & under 1.5 6.3% 7.9% 6.2% 1.28× 12.69
Draw & over 2.5 6.8% 7.9% 7.3% 1.08× 12.69
Draw & over 3.5 6.8% 7.9% 7.3% 1.08× 12.69
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Reading (1UP) 61.6% 63.1% 1.59
Notts County (1UP) 46.9% 42.9% 2.33
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Reading (2UP) 46.1% 49.8% 2.01
Notts County (2UP) 29.0% 24.7% 4.05
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Reading to win 2nd half 37.6% 36.1% 2.77
2nd half drawn 34.9% 34.5% 2.90
Notts County to win 2nd half 27.4% 26.3% 3.81
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Notts County (+2.5) 90.4% 92.1% 89.8% 1.03× 1.09
Notts County (+1.5) 76.5% 78.5% 80.1% 0.98× 1.28
Reading (+0.5) 71.0% 73.7% 70.7% 1.04× 1.36
Notts County (+0.5) 53.9% 52.4% 54.8% 0.96× 1.91
Reading (-0.5) 46.1% 47.6% 45.2% 1.05× 2.10
Notts County (-0.5) 29.0% 26.3% 29.3% 0.90× 3.80
Reading (-1.5) 23.5% 21.5% 19.9% 1.08× 4.64
Reading (-2.5) 9.6% 7.9% 10.2% 0.77× 12.65
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Notts County to concede 79.2% 79.0% 78.1% 1.01× 1.27
Notts County clean sheet 20.8% 21.0% 21.9% 0.96× 4.77
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Notts County to concede in 1st half 49.1% 51.0% 1.96
Notts County clean sheet in 1st half 50.9% 49.0% 2.04
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Notts County under 3.5 goals 96.7% 97.6% 96.8% 1.01× 1.03
Notts County under 2.5 goals 88.1% 87.9% 88.3% 1.00× 1.14
Notts County over 0.5 goals 69.7% 68.0% 69.4% 0.98× 1.47
Notts County under 1.5 goals 66.4% 68.0% 66.8% 1.02× 1.47
Notts County over 1.5 goals 33.6% 32.0% 33.2% 0.96× 3.12
Notts County under 0.5 goals 30.3% 32.0% 30.6% 1.05× 3.12
Notts County over 2.5 goals 11.9% 12.1% 11.7% 1.04× 8.26
Notts County over 3.5 goals 3.3% 2.4% 3.2% 0.75× 41.02
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Notts County under 1.5 in 1st half 91.6% 94.1% 1.06
Notts County under 0.5 in 1st half 62.0% 64.4% 1.55
Notts County over 0.5 in 1st half 38.0% 35.6% 2.81
Notts County over 1.5 in 1st half 8.4% 5.9% 16.97
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Reading (away no bet) 64.9% 62.2% 63.8% 0.97× 1.61
Draw (away no bet) 35.1% 37.8% 36.2% 1.05× 2.64
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Notts County even goals 54.6% 52.8% 54.6% 0.97× 1.90
Notts County odd goals 45.4% 47.2% 45.4% 1.04× 2.12
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 84.6% 83.3% 1.20
Both halves over 1.5 goals 15.4% 16.7% 5.99
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 64.6% 57.9% 1.73
Both halves under 1.5 goals 35.4% 42.1% 2.38
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 56.6% 55.4% 1.81
Reading to score 2+ in a row 38.1% 36.3% 2.75
Notts County to score 2+ in a row 24.9% 19.4% 5.16
Either team to score 3+ in a row 20.2% 19.3% 5.19
Reading to score 3+ in a row 13.8% 12.0% 8.31
Notts County to score 3+ in a row 6.7% 5.6% 18.00
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 11.8% 11.5% 12.5% 0.92× 8.73
1-0 9.9% 7.4% 12.3% 0.60× 13.46
2-1 9.3% 7.4% 9.6% 0.78× 13.46
0-1 7.5% 7.4% 8.3% 0.90× 13.46
1-2 7.1% 7.4% 7.5% 1.00× 13.46
2-0 7.8% 7.4% 5.5% 1.35× 13.46
0-0 6.3% 7.4% 6.2% 1.21× 13.46
2-2 5.5% 7.4% 6.0% 1.24× 13.46
3-1 4.9% 1.7% 4.1% 0.42× 58.56
0-2 4.5% 1.7% 4.4% 0.39× 58.57
0-3 1.8% 1.7% 1.9% 0.88× 58.58
0-4 0.5% 1.7% 1.6% 1.05× 58.59
1-3 2.8% 1.7% 3.4% 0.50× 58.58
1-4 0.8% 1.7% 0.6% 2.63× 58.59
2-3 2.2% 1.7% 1.8% 0.96× 58.58
2-4 0.7% 1.7% 0.3% 5.27× 58.59
3-0 4.1% 1.7% 4.5% 0.38× 58.57
3-2 2.9% 1.7% 3.2% 0.53× 58.58
3-3 1.2% 1.7% 1.5% 1.17× 58.59
3-4 0.3% 1.7% 0.3% 5.27× 58.59
4-0 1.6% 1.7% 1.9% 0.88× 58.58
4-1 1.9% 1.7% 1.6% 1.05× 58.58
4-2 1.1% 1.7% 0.6% 2.63× 58.59
4-3 0.5% 1.7% 0.6% 2.63× 58.59
4-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.2% 10.53× 58.59
Any other score 3.0% 1.7% 3.4% 0.50× 58.58
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Reading leading at HT (DNB) 61.1% 66.1% 1.51
Notts County leading at HT (DNB) 38.9% 33.9% 2.95
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Reading or Notts County (12) 75.1% 75.6% 74.4% 1.02× 1.32
Reading or draw (1X) 71.0% 72.1% 70.7% 1.02× 1.39
Notts County or draw (X2) 53.9% 52.5% 54.8% 0.96× 1.90
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Reading or draw at HT 77.6% 80.0% 1.25
Notts County or draw at HT 64.9% 62.3% 1.61
Reading or Notts County at HT 57.4% 56.8% 1.76
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Reading or draw (1UP) 71.0% 79.9% 1.25
Notts County or draw (1UP) 53.9% 58.9% 1.70
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Reading or draw in 2nd half 72.6% 73.7% 1.36
Reading or Notts County in 2nd half 65.1% 65.5% 1.53
Notts County or draw in 2nd half 62.4% 63.9% 1.57
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 62.7% 61.6% 1.62
Neither half drawn 37.3% 38.4% 2.60
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Reading (DNB) 61.4% 62.8% 60.7% 1.04× 1.59
Notts County (DNB) 38.6% 37.2% 39.3% 0.94× 2.69
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Reading to score first 53.3% 54.2% 1.84
Notts County to score first 40.5% 41.5% 2.41
No goal scored 6.3% 7.4% 13.60
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 55.2% 54.7% 53.6% 1.02× 1.83
Not both teams to score 44.8% 45.3% 46.4% 0.98× 2.21
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 43.4% 41.6% 41.3% 1.01× 2.41
Not both score & under 2.5 35.9% 38.5% 36.0% 1.07× 2.60
Both score & under 2.5 11.8% 12.3% 12.5% 0.99× 8.11
Not both score & over 2.5 8.8% 8.4% 10.5% 0.79× 11.96
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 84.4% 83.2% 85.9% 0.97× 1.20
Both teams to score 2+ 15.6% 16.8% 14.1% 1.19× 5.95
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 69.7% 67.8% 1.48
Both teams to score in 2nd half 30.3% 32.2% 3.10
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 56.7% 59.8% 1.67
Both score 2nd half only 24.6% 21.2% 4.72
Both score 1st half only 13.0% 10.5% 9.53
Both score in both halves 5.7% 6.7% 15.02
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 81.3% 82.8% 1.21
Both teams to score by HT 18.7% 17.2% 5.82
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 54.8% 53.5% 1.87
A half without a goal 45.2% 46.5% 2.15
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 46.2% 47.4% 44.9% 1.06× 2.11
4-6 goals 27.8% 26.4% 27.2% 0.97× 3.78
0-1 goals 23.7% 22.8% 26.4% 0.86× 4.38
7+ goals 2.3% 1.8% 1.8% 1.02× 55.20
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Notts County to score exactly 1 36.2% 36.0% 36.3% 0.99× 2.78
Notts County to score exactly 0 30.3% 33.9% 30.6% 1.11× 2.95
Notts County to score exactly 2 21.6% 22.4% 21.7% 1.03× 4.47
Notts County to score 3+ 11.9% 12.8% 11.7% 1.10× 7.81
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Reading to score exactly 1 32.6% 32.6% 36.1% 0.90× 3.06
Reading to score exactly 2 25.7% 26.5% 22.5% 1.18× 3.77
Reading to score exactly 0 20.8% 23.3% 21.9% 1.06× 4.30
Reading to score 3+ 20.9% 23.3% 19.8% 1.18× 4.30
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 42.6% 43.2% 2.32
Reading leading at HT 35.1% 37.7% 2.65
Notts County leading at HT 22.4% 20.0% 5.01
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Reading -1: 2 53.9% 52.1% 1.92
Reading -1: 1 23.5% 23.6% 4.24
Reading -1: X 22.6% 23.6% 4.24
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Notts County (0:1) 53.9% 51.2% 54.8% 0.93× 1.95
Reading (0:1) 23.5% 24.3% 19.9% 1.22× 4.11
Draw (0:1) 22.6% 24.3% 25.4% 0.96× 4.12
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Notts County (0:2) 76.5% 79.4% 80.1% 0.99× 1.26
Draw (0:2) 13.9% 11.0% 9.9% 1.11× 9.08
Reading (0:2) 9.6% 7.7% 10.2% 0.76× 12.96
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Notts County (0:3) 90.4% 92.6% 89.8% 1.03× 1.08
Draw (0:3) 6.4% 5.8% 6.5% 0.89× 17.25
Reading (0:3) 3.2% 2.4% 3.9% 0.61× 42.00
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Notts County (0:4) 96.8% 98.1% 96.1% 1.02× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 2.3% 1.2% 2.8% 0.44× 83.20
Reading (0:4) 0.9% 1.2% 1.3% 0.93× 83.37
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Reading (1:0) 71.0% 72.5% 70.7% 1.03× 1.38
Draw (1:0) 17.2% 17.0% 17.3% 0.98× 5.87
Notts County (1:0) 11.8% 12.8% 12.2% 1.05× 7.81
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Reading (2:0) 88.2% 88.4% 87.8% 1.01× 1.13
Draw (2:0) 8.0% 6.5% 7.8% 0.83× 15.48
Notts County (2:0) 3.8% 2.3% 4.5% 0.50× 44.17
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 48.0% 48.2% 2.07
1st half highest scoring 27.3% 26.5% 3.77
Halves equal 24.7% 24.3% 4.12
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Reading to concede 69.7% 66.5% 69.4% 0.96× 1.50
Reading clean sheet 30.3% 33.5% 30.6% 1.09× 2.99
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Reading clean sheet in 1st half 62.0% 64.4% 1.55
Reading to concede in 1st half 38.0% 35.6% 2.81
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Reading under 3.5 goals 92.5% 92.2% 93.0% 0.99× 1.08
Reading over 0.5 goals 79.2% 77.7% 78.1% 0.99× 1.29
Reading under 2.5 goals 79.1% 77.7% 80.2% 0.97× 1.29
Reading under 1.5 goals 53.4% 53.3% 57.9% 0.92× 1.88
Reading over 1.5 goals 46.6% 46.7% 42.1% 1.11× 2.14
Reading over 2.5 goals 20.9% 22.3% 19.8% 1.13× 4.49
Reading under 0.5 goals 20.8% 22.3% 21.9% 1.02× 4.49
Reading over 3.5 goals 7.5% 7.8% 7.0% 1.11× 12.89
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Reading under 1.5 in 1st half 85.3% 89.8% 1.11
Reading over 0.5 in 1st half 49.1% 51.0% 1.96
Reading under 0.5 in 1st half 50.9% 49.0% 2.04
Reading over 1.5 in 1st half 14.7% 10.2% 9.84
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Notts County (home no bet) 53.8% 51.6% 53.4% 0.97× 1.94
Draw (home no bet) 46.2% 48.4% 46.6% 1.04× 2.07
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Reading even goals 52.2% 50.6% 48.6% 1.04× 1.98
Reading odd goals 47.8% 49.4% 51.4% 0.96× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 31.5% 32.4% 3.08
HT 1-0 21.3% 24.2% 4.13
HT 0-1 15.1% 18.8% 5.31
HT 1-1 10.2% 11.0% 9.07
HT 2-0 7.2% 7.1% 14.11
Any other HT score 4.4% 2.2% 44.59
HT 0-2 3.6% 2.2% 44.65
HT 2-1 3.4% 2.2% 44.67
HT 1-2 2.4% 2.2% 44.75
HT 2-2 0.8% 2.2% 44.88
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Reading at HT / Reading at FT 27.5% 26.6% 3.75
Draw at HT / Reading at FT 16.0% 16.8% 5.96
Notts County at HT / Notts County at FT 15.2% 16.8% 5.96
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 14.9% 12.7% 7.88
Draw at HT / Notts County at FT 11.7% 12.7% 7.90
Reading at HT / Draw at FT 5.4% 6.0% 16.63
Notts County at HT / Draw at FT 4.7% 3.4% 29.10
Notts County at HT / Reading at FT 2.5% 3.4% 29.18
Reading at HT / Notts County at FT 2.1% 3.4% 29.20
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Reading to score last 53.2% 51.9% 1.93
Notts County to score last 40.5% 40.0% 2.50
No goal scored 6.3% 7.4% 13.60
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 93.7% 92.8% 1.08
Reading to lead by 1 at any time 61.6% 61.4% 1.63
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 47.2% 44.0% 2.27
Notts County to lead by 1 at any time 46.9% 44.0% 2.27
Reading to lead by 2 at any time 30.1% 29.4% 3.41
Notts County to lead by 2 at any time 17.4% 14.9% 6.70
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 17.0% 14.9% 6.70
Reading to lead by 3 at any time 11.8% 10.4% 9.58
Notts County to lead by 3 at any time 5.2% 6.5% 15.44
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 87.5% 87.4% 89.0% 0.98× 1.14
1-4 goals 79.0% 78.6% 81.4% 0.97× 1.27
2-6 goals 74.0% 72.4% 72.0% 1.01× 1.38
2-5 goals 70.1% 72.4% 68.7% 1.05× 1.38
1-3 goals 63.7% 63.5% 65.2% 0.97× 1.58
2-4 goals 61.6% 63.5% 61.1% 1.04× 1.58
3-6 goals 50.0% 48.7% 50.1% 0.97× 2.06
2-3 goals 46.2% 48.7% 44.9% 1.08× 2.06
3-5 goals 46.0% 48.7% 46.8% 1.04× 2.06
1-2 goals 41.5% 43.6% 42.3% 1.03× 2.29
3-4 goals 37.5% 39.2% 39.2% 1.00× 2.55
4-6 goals 27.8% 30.2% 27.2% 1.11× 3.31
4-5 goals 23.8% 24.5% 24.0% 1.02× 4.09
5-6 goals 12.4% 14.9% 11.0% 1.35× 6.73
7+ goals 2.3% 2.5% 1.8% 1.42× 39.47
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Reading never behind 46.9% 57.1% 1.75
Notts County never behind 32.1% 35.4% 2.83
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 49.8% 50.8% 52.5% 0.97× 1.97
Even number of goals 50.2% 49.2% 47.5% 1.04× 2.03
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 55.0% 51.6% 1.94
Odd goals in 1st half 45.0% 48.4% 2.07
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 52.0% 52.0% 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 48.0% 48.0% 2.08
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 93.8% 92.3% 95.0% 0.97× 1.08
Over 0.5 goals 93.7% 92.3% 93.8% 0.98× 1.08
Under 4.5 goals 85.3% 87.7% 87.4% 1.00× 1.14
Over 1.5 goals 76.3% 77.4% 73.6% 1.05× 1.29
Under 3.5 goals 69.9% 66.3% 71.2% 0.93× 1.51
Over 2.5 goals 52.3% 52.4% 51.7% 1.01× 1.91
Under 2.5 goals 47.7% 47.6% 48.3% 0.98× 2.10
Over 3.5 goals 30.1% 33.7% 28.8% 1.17× 2.97
Under 1.5 goals 23.7% 22.6% 26.4% 0.86× 4.42
Over 4.5 goals 14.7% 12.3% 12.6% 0.98× 8.11
Over 5.5 goals 6.2% 7.7% 5.0% 1.54× 12.95
Under 0.5 goals 6.3% 7.7% 6.2% 1.25× 12.95
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 97.6% 97.3% 98.2% 0.99× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 93.2% 92.5% 94.6% 0.98× 1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 82.6% 81.1% 84.9% 0.96× 1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 68.8% 67.3% 66.2% 1.02× 1.49
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 61.4% 62.1% 62.6% 0.99× 1.61
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 38.6% 37.9% 37.4% 1.01× 2.64
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 31.2% 32.7% 33.8% 0.97× 3.06
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 17.4% 18.9% 15.1% 1.25× 5.30
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 6.8% 7.5% 5.4% 1.39× 13.27
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 2.4% 2.7% 1.8% 1.49× 36.37
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 88.9% 89.4% 1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half 68.5% 69.0% 1.45
Under 1.5 in 1st half 67.9% 69.0% 1.45
Over 1.5 in 1st half 32.1% 31.0% 3.23
Under 0.5 in 1st half 31.5% 31.0% 3.23
Over 2.5 in 1st half 11.1% 10.6% 9.39
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 80.1% 82.9% 1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 78.0% 80.0% 1.25
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 52.1% 53.1% 1.89
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 47.9% 46.9% 2.13
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 22.0% 20.0% 4.99
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 19.9% 17.2% 5.83
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Notts County not to score in both halves 80.6% 84.2% 1.19
Reading not to score in both halves 70.9% 74.2% 1.35
Reading to score in both halves 29.1% 25.8% 3.88
Notts County to score in both halves 19.4% 15.8% 6.32
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 55.2% 58.2% 53.6% 1.08× 1.72
Only Reading scores 24.0% 22.4% 24.6% 0.91× 4.47
Only Notts County scores 14.5% 11.0% 15.9% 0.69× 9.13
Neither team scores 6.3% 7.2% 6.2% 1.16× 13.95
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 24.0% 22.7% 22.0% 1.03× 4.42
Exactly 3 goals 22.2% 22.6% 23.0% 0.98× 4.42
Exactly 1 goals 17.4% 17.5% 20.4% 0.85× 5.73
Exactly 4 goals 15.4% 17.4% 16.4% 1.07× 5.73
Exactly 5 goals 8.5% 7.6% 7.8% 0.98× 13.13
Exactly 0 goals 6.3% 7.6% 6.2% 1.24× 13.14
6 or more goals 6.2% 7.6% 5.0% 1.51× 13.14
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 47.9% 44.8% 2.23
1 goal in 2nd half 32.2% 33.8% 2.96
No goals in 2nd half 19.9% 17.0% 5.89
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Notts County not to win both halves 93.9% 94.0% 1.06
Reading not to win both halves 86.8% 88.0% 1.14
Reading to win both halves 13.2% 12.0% 8.36
Notts County to win both halves 6.1% 6.0% 16.67
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Reading to win either half 59.5% 59.5% 1.68
Notts County to win neither half 56.3% 59.4% 1.68
Notts County to win either half 43.7% 40.6% 2.46
Reading to win neither half 40.5% 40.5% 2.47
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Notts County not to win to nil 85.5% 88.2% 84.1% 1.05× 1.13
Reading not to win to nil 76.0% 78.0% 75.4% 1.04× 1.28
Reading to win to nil 24.0% 22.0% 24.6% 0.89× 4.55
Notts County to win to nil 14.5% 11.8% 15.9% 0.74× 8.47
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 24.9% 24.1% 25.6% 0.94× 4.14
Reading by 1 22.6% 24.1% 25.4% 0.95× 4.14
Notts County by 1 17.2% 16.9% 17.3% 0.98× 5.90
Reading by 2 13.9% 11.8% 9.9% 1.20× 8.46
Reading by 3+ 9.6% 7.3% 10.2% 0.71× 13.79
Notts County by 2 8.0% 7.2% 7.8% 0.93× 13.80
Notts County by 3+ 3.8% 2.7% 4.5% 0.60× 36.95
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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