Sassuolo v Verona — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 20 February 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
8 – 12
On target
4 – 1
Shots in box
7 – 8
xG per shot
0.26 – 0.05
Set-piece xG
1.53 – 0.02
Goals − xG
+0.95 – -0.63
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Sassuolo win
49.7%
Draw
26.6%
Verona win
23.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Sassuolo are finishing below their chances — 3.6 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WLWDWLLLLW last 10
scored 13
from 16.6 xG
conceded 13
from 14.7 xG
Verona are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLLLLDDLDL last 10
scored 3
from 7.7 xG
conceded 12
from 15.9 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.45–0.91 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.39–0.95 | 1-0 13% | 42% | 46% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Sassuolo 2.05 xGVerona 0.63 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Sassuolo attacking right
Verona attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14' |
 Verona |
Kieron Bowie | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Domagoj Bradaric |
| 15' |
Verona |
Amin Sarr | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 20' |
Verona |
Martin Frese | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Amin Sarr |
| 36' |
 Sassuolo |
Luca Lipani | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Domenico Berardi |
| 39' |
Sassuolo |
Andrea Pinamonti | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Armand Lauriente |
| 39' |
Sassuolo |
Filippo Romagna | 0.03 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Domenico Berardi |
| 41' |
Verona |
Abdou Harroui | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 43' |
Sassuolo |
Domenico Berardi | 0.76 | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — | |
| 43' |
Sassuolo |
Domenico Berardi | 0.61 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 47' |
Verona |
Al Musrati | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Domagoj Bradaric |
| 52' |
Verona |
Kieron Bowie | 0.12 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Domagoj Bradaric |
| 53' |
Sassuolo |
Kristian Thorstvedt | 0.11 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Ulisses García |
| 59' |
Verona |
Al Musrati | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Andrias Edmundsson |
| 59' |
Verona |
Amin Sarr | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Cheikh Niasse |
| 60' |
Verona |
Amin Sarr | 0.02 | Set Piece | — | Blocked Shot | Domagoj Bradaric |
| 61' |
Sassuolo |
Domenico Berardi | 0.28 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Armand Lauriente |
| 66' |
Sassuolo |
Kristian Thorstvedt | 0.13 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Domenico Berardi |
| 68' |
Verona |
Amin Sarr | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Cheikh Niasse |
| 71' |
Verona |
Domagoj Bradaric | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Cheikh Niasse |
| 76' |
Verona |
Daniel Mosquera | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Martin Frese |
Players
Verona
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martin Frese DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.07 |
| Victor Nelsson DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Andrias Edmundsson DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.18 |
| Armel Bella Kotchap DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Cheikh Niasse MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| Lorenzo Montipò GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Al Musrati MC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Kieron Bowie FW | 83 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.24 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Abdou Harroui MC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Amin Sarr FW | 74 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.26 | 0.03 | 0.38 |
| Domagoj Bradaric DMR | 74 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.01 | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| Daniel Mosquera Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Daniel Oyegoke Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ioan Vermesan Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tomás Suslov Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Sassuolo
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Domenico Berardi FWR | 90 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1.65 | 0.18 | 0.41 |
| Kristian Thorstvedt MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.24 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| Luca Lipani MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Arijanet Muric GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ulisses García DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Jay Idzes DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sebastian Walukiewicz DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Ismaël Koné MC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Armand Lauriente FWL | 74 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.38 | 0.52 |
| Andrea Pinamonti FW | 73 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Filippo Romagna Sub | 55 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Woyo Coulibaly DR | 35 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| M'Bala Nzola Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Edoardo Iannoni Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alieu Fadera Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pedro Felipe Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |