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Verona v Roma — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 3 November 2024 · ITA-Serie A · 2425

Serie A xG

3–2
1.52 – 2.38 xG
Shots
7 – 14
On target
3 – 3
Shots in box
3 – 8
xG per shot
0.22 – 0.17
Set-piece xG
0.56 – 0.14
Goals − xG
+1.48 – -0.39
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.71.32.02.70'15'30'45'60'75'90'Casper Tengstedt 12' — goalMatìas Soulè Malvano 27' — goalGiangiacomo Magnani 33' — goalArtem Dovbyk 52' — goalAbdou Harroui 87' — goal
Verona 1.52 xGRoma 2.39 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Casper Tengstedt 12' — Goal (0.34 xG, Open Play)Matìas Soulè Malvano 16' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Nicola Zalewski 20' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, From Corner)Matìas Soulè Malvano 24' — Missed Shot (0.42 xG, Open Play)Lorenzo Pellegrini 27' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Matìas Soulè Malvano 27' — Goal (0.51 xG, Open Play)Lorenzo Pellegrini 31' — Missed Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)Mehmet Zeki Çelik 31' — Blocked Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Nicola Zalewski 31' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Casper Tengstedt 32' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Giangiacomo Magnani 33' — Goal (0.56 xG, From Corner)Artem Dovbyk 52' — Goal (0.81 xG, Open Play)Ondrej Duda 61' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Suat Serdar 63' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Domagoj Bradaric 70' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Paulo Dybala 80' — Missed Shot (0.09 xG, Direct Freekick)Tommaso Baldanzi 83' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Abdou Harroui 87' — Goal (0.49 xG, Open Play)Paulo Dybala 90' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Bryan Cristante 93' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Bryan Cristante 95' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Set Piece)
Verona attacking right Roma attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
12' Verona Casper Tengstedt 0.34 Open Play Left Foot Goal
16' Roma Matìas Soulè Malvano 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Kouadio Kone
20' Roma Nicola Zalewski 0.03 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot Angelino
24' Roma Matìas Soulè Malvano 0.42 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot
27' Roma Lorenzo Pellegrini 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Matìas Soulè Malvano
27' Roma Matìas Soulè Malvano 0.51 Open Play Left Foot Goal
31' Roma Lorenzo Pellegrini 0.11 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
31' Roma Mehmet Zeki Çelik 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Matìas Soulè Malvano
31' Roma Nicola Zalewski 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Lorenzo Pellegrini
32' Verona Casper Tengstedt 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Suat Serdar
33' Verona Giangiacomo Magnani 0.56 From Corner Goal Ondrej Duda
52' Roma Artem Dovbyk 0.81 Open Play Right Foot Goal Mehmet Zeki Çelik
61' Verona Ondrej Duda 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Casper Tengstedt
63' Verona Suat Serdar 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Ondrej Duda
70' Verona Domagoj Bradaric 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Diego Coppola
80' Roma Paulo Dybala 0.09 Direct Freekick Left Foot Missed Shot
83' Roma Tommaso Baldanzi 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Bryan Cristante
87' Verona Abdou Harroui 0.49 Open Play Right Foot Goal Dailon Livramento
90' Roma Paulo Dybala 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Bryan Cristante
93' Roma Bryan Cristante 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Tommaso Baldanzi
95' Roma Bryan Cristante 0.02 Set Piece Blocked Shot Leandro Paredes

Players

Roma

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Lorenzo Pellegrini AMC 90 0 0 2 1 0.18 0.06 0.31
Mehmet Zeki Çelik DMR 90 0 1 1 1 0.08 0.81 0.21
Mile Svilar GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Gianluca Mancini DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.19
Evan Ndicka DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.24
Angelino DC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.03 0.18
Kouadio Kone MC 82 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.07 0.07
Artem Dovbyk FW 75 1 0 1 0 0.81 0.00 0.95
Enzo Le Fée MC 68 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.13
Matìas Soulè Malvano AMC 67 1 0 3 2 0.99 0.14 1.13
Nicola Zalewski DML 67 0 0 2 0 0.08 0.00 0.12
Paulo Dybala Sub 23 0 0 2 0 0.14 0.00 0.05
Stephan El Shaarawy Sub 23 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.14
Bryan Cristante Sub 22 0 0 2 2 0.04 0.12 0.14
Tommaso Baldanzi Sub 15 0 0 1 1 0.07 0.02 0.09
Leandro Paredes Sub 8 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.12

Verona

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Giangiacomo Magnani DC 90 1 0 1 0 0.56 0.00 0.02
Domagoj Bradaric DL 90 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.02
Ondrej Duda DMC 90 0 1 1 2 0.02 0.60 0.06
Lorenzo Montipò GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Darko Lazovic AML 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.04
Diego Coppola DC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.07
Suat Serdar DMC 88 0 0 1 1 0.04 0.05 0.09
Flavius Daniliuc DR 88 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Tomás Suslov AMR 78 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Casper Tengstedt FW 63 1 0 2 1 0.39 0.02 0.41
Grigoris Kastanos AMC 63 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.05
Abdou Harroui Sub 27 1 0 1 0 0.49 0.00 0.52
Daniel Mosquera Sub 27 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.49
Dailon Livramento Sub 12 0 1 0 1 0.00 0.49 0.49
Dani Silva Sub 2 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.49
Marco Faraoni Sub 2 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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