Verona v Torino — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 4 January 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
7 – 21
On target
3 – 5
Shots in box
3 – 9
xG per shot
0.04 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
0.03 – 0.25
Goals − xG
-0.26 – +1.29
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Verona win
25.2%
Draw
33.5%
Torino win
41.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Verona are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLLLLDDLDL last 10
scored 3
from 7.7 xG
conceded 12
from 15.9 xG
Torino are conceding fewer than expected — 2.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDDLWLDLLW last 10
scored 13
from 13.3 xG
conceded 15
from 17.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.90–1.21 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.36–1.25 | 1-1 12% | 48% | 53% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Verona 0.26 xGTorino 1.71 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Verona attacking right
Torino attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Torino |
Che Adams | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 1' |
Torino |
Zakaria Aboukhlal | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Emirhan Ilkhan |
| 3' |
Torino |
Guillermo Maripán | 0.12 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 3' |
Torino |
Nikola Vlasic | 0.05 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 5' |
Torino |
Zakaria Aboukhlal | 0.08 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Emirhan Ilkhan |
| 6' |
 Verona |
Giovane | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Al Musrati |
| 9' |
Torino |
Giovanni Simeone | 0.34 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 16' |
Torino |
Nikola Vlasic | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Emirhan Ilkhan |
| 19' |
Torino |
Che Adams | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nikola Vlasic |
| 19' |
Torino |
Valentino Lazaro | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 20' |
Torino |
Nikola Vlasic | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Gvidas Gineitis |
| 42' |
Torino |
Zakaria Aboukhlal | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Emirhan Ilkhan |
| 43' |
Torino |
Giovanni Simeone | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Zakaria Aboukhlal |
| 45' |
Torino |
Emirhan Ilkhan | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 47' |
Torino |
Nikola Vlasic | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 47' |
Verona |
Giovane | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 54' |
Verona |
Daniel Mosquera | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 56' |
Torino |
Che Adams | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Gvidas Gineitis |
| 56' |
Torino |
Giovanni Simeone | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nikola Vlasic |
| 68' |
Verona |
Daniel Mosquera | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Unai Núñez |
| 69' |
Torino |
Gvidas Gineitis | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Valentino Lazaro |
| 71' |
Verona |
Giovane | 0.03 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Abdou Harroui |
| 77' |
Torino |
Duván Zapata | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 80' |
Verona |
Gift Orban | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Martin Frese |
| 84' |
Torino |
Adrien Tameze | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Duván Zapata |
| 86' |
Torino |
Cesare Casadei | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Alieu Njie |
| 90' |
Torino |
Alieu Njie | 0.36 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Ardian Ismajli |
| 94' |
Verona |
Amin Sarr | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Giovane |
Players
Torino
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikola Vlasic MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.13 | 0.16 | 0.21 |
| Guillermo Maripán DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Valentino Lazaro DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.34 |
| Saúl Coco DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Ardian Ismajli DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.36 | 0.39 |
| Alberto Paleari GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Che Adams FW | 86 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Zakaria Aboukhlal DML | 86 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.03 | 0.21 |
| Giovanni Simeone FW | 78 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.44 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Gvidas Gineitis MC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| Emirhan Ilkhan MC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.01 | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| Adrien Tameze Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Cesare Casadei Sub | 12 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Duván Zapata Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| Alieu Njie Sub | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.36 | 0.10 | 0.46 |
| Ali Dembélé Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Verona
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giovane AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.13 | 0.16 |
| Unai Núñez DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.15 |
| Martin Frese DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.04 |
| Lorenzo Montipò GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Armel Bella Kotchap DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Victor Nelsson DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Daniel Mosquera FW | 78 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Antoine Bernede AMC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Suat Serdar MC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Daniel Oyegoke DMR | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Al Musrati MC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Gift Orban Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Roberto Gagliardini Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Abdou Harroui Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| Amin Sarr Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Grigoris Kastanos Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |