Verona v Udinese — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Monday 26 January 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
7 – 20
On target
4 – 7
Shots in box
5 – 11
xG per shot
0.08 – 0.10
Set-piece xG
0.05 – 0.26
Goals − xG
+0.43 – +1.06
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Verona win
34.4%
Draw
27.7%
Udinese win
37.8%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Verona are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLLLLDDLDL last 10
scored 3
from 7.7 xG
conceded 12
from 15.9 xG
Udinese are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWLDWWLLDW last 10
scored 14
from 14.7 xG
conceded 9
from 14.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.15–1.22 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.39–1.19 | 1-1 13% | 48% | 52% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Verona 0.57 xGUdinese 1.94 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Verona attacking right
Udinese attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11' |
 Verona |
Antoine Bernede | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 12' |
 Udinese |
Lennon Miller | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Keinan Davis |
| 13' |
Udinese |
Jurgen Ekkelenkamp | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 18' |
Udinese |
Jesper Karlström | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Alessandro Zanoli |
| 21' |
Udinese |
Keinan Davis | 0.17 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Thomas Thiesson Kristensen |
| 22' |
Udinese |
Arthur Atta | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Jordan Zemura |
| 25' |
Verona |
Gift Orban | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Amin Sarr |
| 31' |
Verona |
Domagoj Bradaric | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | — |
| 37' |
Udinese |
Arthur Atta | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jesper Karlström |
| 42' |
Udinese |
Jordan Zemura | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Keinan Davis |
| 46' |
Udinese |
Jordan Zemura | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Arthur Atta |
| 47' |
Verona |
Amin Sarr | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 50' |
Udinese |
Alessandro Zanoli | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 52' |
Udinese |
Arthur Atta | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Lennon Miller |
| 52' |
Udinese |
Lennon Miller | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Oumar Solet |
| 57' |
Udinese |
Alessandro Zanoli | 0.06 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 57' |
Udinese |
Jordan Zemura | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 60' |
Udinese |
Keinan Davis | 0.09 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Arthur Atta |
| 62' |
Udinese |
Arthur Atta | 0.42 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Keinan Davis |
| 63' |
Udinese |
Arthur Atta | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jesper Karlström |
| 65' |
Udinese |
Arthur Atta | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Nicolò Bertola |
| 66' |
Udinese |
Keinan Davis | 0.37 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Arthur Atta |
| 69' |
Verona |
Gift Orban | 0.21 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Abdou Harroui |
| 74' |
Verona |
Gift Orban | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Abdou Harroui |
| 82' |
Udinese |
Keinan Davis | 0.18 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 87' |
Verona |
Gift Orban | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 91' |
Udinese |
Sandi Lovric | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Idrissa Gueye |
Players
Udinese
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arthur Atta AMC | 90 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 0.69 | 0.56 | 1.23 |
| Jordan Zemura DML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0.20 | 0.03 | 0.34 |
| Jesper Karlström MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.14 | 0.56 |
| Nicolò Bertola DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.24 |
| Oumar Solet DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.08 |
| Maduka Okoye GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Thomas Thiesson Kristensen DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 0.63 |
| Keinan Davis FW | 86 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0.80 | 0.47 | 1.41 |
| Jurgen Ekkelenkamp AMC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Alessandro Zanoli DMR | 79 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.06 | 0.48 |
| Lennon Miller MC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.03 | 0.27 |
| Oier Zarraga Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Kingsley Ehizibue Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sandi Lovric Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Idrissa Gueye Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Saba Goglichidze Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Verona
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gift Orban FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.45 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Tobias Slotsager DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Simone Perilli GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Roberto Gagliardini MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Enzo Ebosse DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Victor Nelsson DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Domagoj Bradaric DML | 86 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Antoine Bernede MC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Amin Sarr FW | 73 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.13 | 0.19 |
| Suat Serdar MC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pol Lirola DMR | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Cheikh Niasse Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Abdou Harroui Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| Isaac Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Grigoris Kastanos Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Daniel Oyegoke Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |