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Calgary Flames v Seattle Kraken — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Monday 21 September 2026 · NHL · 2027

NHL results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

nhl-ai No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.
Calgary Flames win
45.4%
Draw
20.6%
Seattle Kraken win
33.9%

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
nhl-ai 2.78–2.63 2-2 7% 90% 87%
nhl-dc 2.78–2.63 2-2 6% 91% 87%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Calgary Flames to win 45.4% 45.9% 42.6% 1.08× 2.18
Seattle Kraken to win 33.9% 28.1% 31.2% 0.90× 3.56
Draw 20.6% 24.3% 26.3% 0.93× 4.11
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Calgary Flames (1UP) 70.5% 76.8% 58.7% 1.31× 1.30
Seattle Kraken (1UP) 62.5% 63.7% 49.3% 1.29× 1.57
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Calgary Flames (2UP) 45.4% 48.4% 44.5% 1.09× 2.07
Seattle Kraken (2UP) 33.9% 30.3% 33.4% 0.91× 3.30
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Seattle Kraken (+2.5) 84.5% 85.6% 90.3% 0.95× 1.17
Seattle Kraken (+1.5) 71.5% 75.5% 78.1% 0.97× 1.33
Calgary Flames (+0.5) 66.1% 70.8% 68.8% 1.03× 1.41
Seattle Kraken (+0.5) 54.6% 53.2% 57.4% 0.93× 1.88
Calgary Flames (-0.5) 45.4% 46.8% 42.6% 1.10× 2.14
Seattle Kraken (-0.5) 33.9% 29.2% 31.2% 0.94× 3.42
Calgary Flames (-1.5) 28.5% 24.5% 21.9% 1.12× 4.08
Calgary Flames (-2.5) 15.5% 14.4% 9.7% 1.48× 6.95
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Calgary Flames (away no bet) 68.8% 63.8% 61.8% 1.03× 1.57
Draw (away no bet) 31.2% 36.2% 38.2% 0.95× 2.76
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both halves over 1.5 goals 53.8% 56.5% 16.9% 3.34× 1.77
Not both halves over 1.5 46.2% 43.5% 83.1% 0.52× 2.30
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 93.7% 94.7% 64.8% 1.46× 1.06
Both halves under 1.5 goals 6.3% 5.3% 35.2% 0.15× 18.71
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 86.2% 88.6% 57.4% 1.54× 1.13
Calgary Flames to score 2+ in a row 62.2% 60.3% 36.2% 1.67× 1.66
Seattle Kraken to score 2+ in a row 54.1% 51.5% 27.9% 1.84× 1.94
Either team to score 3+ in a row 47.7% 45.5% 22.4% 2.03× 2.20
Calgary Flames to score 3+ in a row 29.2% 25.4% 13.9% 1.83× 3.93
Seattle Kraken to score 3+ in a row 22.4% 18.7% 8.9% 2.12× 5.34
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Any other score 24.7% 26.1% 3.8% 6.88× 3.84
2-2 7.0% 7.5% 5.8% 1.29× 13.39
3-2 5.8% 7.5% 2.9% 2.57× 13.39
3-3 5.7% 7.5% 1.2% 6.19× 13.39
2-1 4.8% 1.7% 8.5% 0.21× 57.45
2-3 4.6% 1.7% 2.2% 0.79× 57.45
1-1 3.9% 1.7% 11.4% 0.15× 57.47
1-2 3.8% 1.7% 7.0% 0.25× 57.48
3-1 4.4% 1.7% 4.7% 0.37× 57.46
4-2 4.0% 1.7% 1.0% 1.72× 57.47
4-3 3.5% 1.7% 0.6% 3.07× 57.48
1-3 3.3% 1.7% 2.8% 0.61× 57.49
2-4 3.0% 1.7% 0.5% 3.37× 57.50
3-4 2.8% 1.7% 0.5% 3.53× 57.51
4-1 3.1% 1.7% 1.8% 0.97× 57.50
4-4 2.6% 1.7% 0.2% 8.83× 57.51
0-2 1.4% 1.7% 5.3% 0.33× 57.55
0-3 1.2% 1.7% 2.5% 0.69× 57.55
1-0 1.3% 1.7% 8.8% 0.20× 57.55
1-4 2.2% 1.7% 1.0% 1.68× 57.52
2-0 1.8% 1.7% 6.5% 0.27× 57.54
3-0 1.7% 1.7% 3.9% 0.44× 57.54
0-0 0.5% 1.7% 7.8% 0.22× 57.57
0-1 1.0% 1.7% 7.0% 0.25× 57.56
0-4 0.8% 1.7% 1.1% 1.60× 57.57
4-0 1.2% 1.7% 1.7% 0.99× 57.56
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Calgary Flames leading at HT (DNB) 57.3% 58.1% 56.8% 1.02× 1.72
Seattle Kraken leading at HT (DNB) 42.7% 41.9% 43.2% 0.97× 2.38
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Calgary Flames or Seattle Kraken (12) 79.4% 75.7% 73.7% 1.03× 1.32
Calgary Flames or draw (1X) 66.1% 71.9% 68.8% 1.05× 1.39
Seattle Kraken or draw (X2) 54.6% 54.1% 57.4% 0.94× 1.85
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Calgary Flames or draw (1UP) 70.5% 79.9% 74.6% 1.07× 1.25
Seattle Kraken or draw (1UP) 62.5% 70.9% 64.5% 1.10× 1.41
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Calgary Flames (DNB) 57.3% 62.5% 57.7% 1.08× 1.60
Seattle Kraken (DNB) 42.7% 37.5% 42.3% 0.89× 2.67
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Calgary Flames to score first 51.1% 54.4% 50.2% 1.08× 1.84
Seattle Kraken to score first 48.3% 44.2% 42.0% 1.05× 2.26
No goal scored 0.5% 5.0% 7.8% 0.65× 19.87
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 87.3% 87.3% 54.0% 1.62× 1.15
Not both teams to score 12.7% 12.7% 46.0% 0.27× 7.90
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 2+ 57.2% 58.2% 15.5% 3.75× 1.72
Not both teams to score 2+ 42.8% 41.8% 84.5% 0.49× 2.39
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score in 2nd half 63.3% 68.5% 29.1% 2.36× 1.46
Not both to score in 2nd half 36.7% 31.6% 70.9% 0.44× 3.17
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 54.6% 54.6% 82.0% 0.67× 1.83
Both teams to score by HT 45.4% 45.4% 18.0% 2.53× 2.20
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
4-6 goals 49.4% 47.0% 29.1% 1.62× 2.13
7+ goals 29.3% 27.3% 2.4% 11.30× 3.67
2-3 goals 18.4% 20.9% 45.0% 0.46× 4.79
0-1 goals 2.9% 1.8% 23.6% 0.08× 54.39
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Seattle Kraken to score 3+ 46.6% 44.7% 13.9% 3.21× 2.24
Seattle Kraken to score exactly 2 25.8% 28.0% 22.3% 1.26× 3.57
Seattle Kraken to score exactly 1 20.0% 21.5% 34.3% 0.63× 4.65
Seattle Kraken to score exactly 0 7.6% 6.2% 29.6% 0.21× 16.19
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Calgary Flames to score 3+ 54.2% 45.8% 20.8% 2.20× 2.19
Calgary Flames to score exactly 2 23.9% 23.9% 23.6% 1.01× 4.19
Calgary Flames to score exactly 1 16.3% 19.2% 31.4% 0.61× 5.20
Calgary Flames to score exactly 0 5.6% 7.1% 24.2% 0.29× 14.05
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Calgary Flames leading at HT 40.7% 44.4% 33.2% 1.34× 2.25
Seattle Kraken leading at HT 30.3% 31.5% 25.3% 1.25× 3.17
Draw at HT 28.9% 25.7% 41.5% 0.62× 3.90
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Calgary Flames -1: 2 54.6% 52.9% 1.89
Calgary Flames -1: 1 28.5% 26.3% 3.80
Calgary Flames -1: X 17.0% 16.5% 6.06
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Seattle Kraken (0:1) 54.6% 52.6% 57.4% 0.92× 1.90
Calgary Flames (0:1) 28.5% 25.2% 21.9% 1.15× 3.97
Draw (0:1) 17.0% 14.5% 20.7% 0.70× 6.90
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Seattle Kraken (0:2) 71.5% 73.9% 78.1% 0.95× 1.35
Calgary Flames (0:2) 15.5% 17.0% 9.7% 1.74× 5.89
Draw (0:2) 12.9% 10.4% 12.2% 0.85× 9.63
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Seattle Kraken (0:3) 84.5% 85.3% 90.3% 0.95× 1.17
Draw (0:3) 8.1% 5.7% 6.0% 0.94× 17.69
Calgary Flames (0:3) 7.4% 5.6% 3.7% 1.51× 17.75
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Seattle Kraken (0:4) 92.6% 95.0% 96.3% 0.99× 1.05
Draw (0:4) 4.3% 1.1% 2.6% 0.42× 90.94
Calgary Flames (0:4) 3.1% 1.1% 1.2% 0.94× 91.91
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Calgary Flames (1:0) 66.1% 71.0% 68.8% 1.03× 1.41
Seattle Kraken (1:0) 20.4% 23.8% 14.5% 1.64× 4.20
Draw (1:0) 13.6% 11.0% 16.7% 0.66× 9.11
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Calgary Flames (2:0) 79.6% 78.8% 85.5% 0.92× 1.27
Seattle Kraken (2:0) 10.6% 12.1% 5.9% 2.06× 8.25
Draw (2:0) 9.7% 6.3% 8.7% 0.72× 15.93
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 56.2% 59.7% 47.5% 1.26× 1.67
1st half highest scoring 26.6% 26.5% 25.7% 1.03× 3.78
Halves equal 17.2% 18.7% 26.7% 0.70× 5.33
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Seattle Kraken (home no bet) 62.2% 60.4% 54.3% 1.11× 1.66
Draw (home no bet) 37.8% 39.6% 45.7% 0.87× 2.53
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Any other HT score 19.6% 19.1% 4.7% 4.10× 5.25
HT 1-1 13.4% 10.8% 10.0% 1.08× 9.22
HT 1-0 13.1% 10.8% 20.3% 0.53× 9.22
HT 0-1 10.7% 10.8% 16.1% 0.67× 9.25
HT 0-0 10.7% 10.8% 30.7% 0.35× 9.25
HT 2-1 8.2% 7.0% 3.2% 2.23× 14.25
HT 2-0 7.9% 7.0% 7.0% 1.00× 14.26
HT 1-2 6.7% 7.0% 2.7% 2.64× 14.28
HT 0-2 5.4% 7.0% 4.7% 1.47× 14.30
HT 2-2 4.2% 2.2% 0.9% 2.61× 44.51
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Calgary Flames at HT / Calgary Flames at FT 29.4% 26.9% 25.3% 1.06× 3.72
Seattle Kraken at HT / Seattle Kraken at FT 19.9% 16.7% 17.0% 0.98× 6.00
Draw at HT / Calgary Flames at FT 11.4% 12.7% 14.4% 0.88× 7.88
Draw at HT / Seattle Kraken at FT 9.6% 6.3% 11.4% 0.55× 15.97
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 7.9% 6.2% 15.8% 0.40× 16.02
Calgary Flames at HT / Draw at FT 6.8% 6.2% 5.1% 1.23× 16.05
Seattle Kraken at HT / Draw at FT 5.8% 6.2% 5.5% 1.14× 16.08
Seattle Kraken at HT / Calgary Flames at FT 4.6% 3.4% 2.9% 1.18× 29.45
Calgary Flames at HT / Seattle Kraken at FT 4.5% 3.4% 2.9% 1.19× 29.45
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Calgary Flames to score last 52.6% 52.5% 50.3% 1.04× 1.90
Seattle Kraken to score last 46.9% 46.1% 41.9% 1.10× 2.17
No goal scored 0.5% 5.0% 7.8% 0.65× 19.87
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 99.5% 94.9% 92.2% 1.03× 1.05
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 74.0% 75.9% 47.3% 1.60× 1.32
Calgary Flames to lead by 1 at any time 70.5% 75.6% 58.7% 1.29× 1.32
Seattle Kraken to lead by 1 at any time 62.5% 61.3% 49.3% 1.24× 1.63
Calgary Flames to lead by 2 at any time 42.7% 38.3% 27.8% 1.38× 2.61
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 38.6% 34.1% 19.0% 1.79× 2.93
Seattle Kraken to lead by 2 at any time 33.7% 31.1% 19.9% 1.56× 3.22
Calgary Flames to lead by 3 at any time 22.5% 20.2% 11.9% 1.70× 4.96
Seattle Kraken to lead by 3 at any time 16.2% 14.6% 7.2% 2.03× 6.87
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-6 goals 67.9% 68.9% 74.0% 0.93× 1.45
3-6 goals 60.8% 62.7% 50.9% 1.23× 1.59
1-5 goals 54.1% 51.2% 85.7% 0.60× 1.95
2-5 goals 51.8% 51.1% 69.9% 0.73× 1.96
4-6 goals 49.4% 47.4% 29.1% 1.63× 2.11
3-5 goals 44.8% 42.2% 46.8% 0.90× 2.37
1-4 goals 37.5% 39.4% 76.8% 0.51× 2.54
2-4 goals 35.1% 39.4% 61.0% 0.65× 2.54
4-5 goals 33.4% 32.8% 25.0% 1.31× 3.05
5-6 goals 32.7% 32.7% 13.1% 2.50× 3.05
7+ goals 29.3% 26.1% 2.4% 10.83× 3.83
3-4 goals 28.1% 26.1% 37.8% 0.69× 3.83
1-3 goals 20.8% 20.8% 60.8% 0.34× 4.81
2-3 goals 18.4% 15.7% 45.0% 0.35× 6.37
1-2 goals 9.4% 5.0% 39.0% 0.13× 19.96
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Calgary Flames never behind 37.0% 44.5% 50.7% 0.88× 2.25
Seattle Kraken never behind 29.0% 30.6% 41.3% 0.74× 3.27
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even number of goals 51.9% 50.3% 51.6% 0.98× 1.99
Odd number of goals 48.1% 49.7% 48.5% 1.03× 2.01
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 50.6% 52.2% 54.6% 0.96× 1.92
Odd goals in 1st half 49.4% 47.8% 45.4% 1.05× 2.09
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 50.2% 52.4% 52.1% 1.01× 1.91
Odd goals in 2nd half 49.9% 47.6% 47.9% 0.99× 2.10
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 goals 99.5% 95.8% 92.2% 1.04× 1.04
Over 1.5 goals 97.1% 95.7% 76.4% 1.25× 1.05
Over 2.5 goals 90.1% 92.9% 53.3% 1.74× 1.08
Over 3.5 goals 78.7% 79.7% 31.5% 2.53× 1.25
Over 4.5 goals 62.0% 61.1% 15.5% 3.95× 1.64
Under 5.5 goals 54.7% 52.1% 93.5% 0.56× 1.92
Over 5.5 goals 45.3% 47.9% 6.5% 7.32× 2.09
Under 4.5 goals 38.0% 38.9% 84.5% 0.46× 2.57
Under 3.5 goals 21.3% 20.3% 68.5% 0.30× 4.93
Under 2.5 goals 9.9% 7.1% 46.7% 0.15× 14.12
Under 1.5 goals 2.9% 4.3% 23.6% 0.18× 23.25
Under 0.5 goals 0.5% 4.2% 7.8% 0.55× 23.54
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 96.9% 98.1% 69.3% 1.41× 1.02
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 88.8% 89.6% 40.2% 2.23× 1.12
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 74.4% 75.4% 18.4% 4.09× 1.33
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 65.1% 68.3% 97.5% 0.70× 1.46
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 54.4% 51.4% 7.2% 7.16× 1.94
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 45.6% 48.6% 92.8% 0.52× 2.06
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 34.9% 31.7% 2.5% 12.59× 3.16
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 25.6% 24.6% 81.6% 0.30× 4.06
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 11.2% 10.4% 59.8% 0.17× 9.64
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 3.1% 1.9% 30.7% 0.06× 51.99
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Seattle Kraken to score in both halves 50.0% 57.1% 21.9% 2.60× 1.75
Calgary Flames to score in both halves 56.8% 56.4% 28.9% 1.95× 1.77
Calgary Flames not to score in both halves 43.2% 43.6% 71.1% 0.61× 2.29
Seattle Kraken not to score in both halves 50.0% 42.9% 78.1% 0.55× 2.33
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 87.3% 87.3% 54.0% 1.62× 1.15
Only Calgary Flames scores 7.1% 7.3% 21.8% 0.34× 13.65
Only Seattle Kraken scores 5.1% 7.3% 16.5% 0.44× 13.73
Neither team scores 0.5% 4.8% 7.8% 0.62× 20.87
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
6 or more goals 45.3% 45.3% 6.5% 6.93× 2.21
Exactly 4 goals 16.7% 18.0% 16.0% 1.13× 5.55
Exactly 5 goals 16.7% 18.0% 9.0% 2.01× 5.55
Exactly 3 goals 11.4% 11.4% 21.8% 0.52× 8.74
Exactly 2 goals 7.0% 7.3% 23.2% 0.32× 13.69
Exactly 1 goals 2.3% 4.3% 15.8% 0.27× 23.51
Exactly 0 goals 0.5% 4.2% 7.8% 0.54× 23.73
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 82.1% 82.1% 48.7% 1.69× 1.22
1 goal in 2nd half 13.6% 15.9% 32.0% 0.50× 6.28
No goals in 2nd half 4.4% 4.3% 19.3% 0.22× 23.50
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Seattle Kraken not to win both halves 89.3% 88.2% 92.0% 0.96× 1.13
Calgary Flames not to win both halves 84.4% 84.0% 87.0% 0.96× 1.19
Calgary Flames to win both halves 15.6% 16.0% 13.0% 1.24× 6.24
Seattle Kraken to win both halves 10.7% 11.8% 8.0% 1.47× 8.48
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 20.6% 24.7% 26.3% 0.94× 4.05
Calgary Flames by 1 17.0% 17.1% 20.7% 0.83× 5.83
Calgary Flames by 3+ 15.5% 17.1% 9.7% 1.76× 5.84
Seattle Kraken by 1 13.6% 11.1% 16.7% 0.67× 8.97
Calgary Flames by 2 12.9% 11.1% 12.2% 0.92× 8.98
Seattle Kraken by 3+ 10.6% 11.1% 5.9% 1.89× 9.01
Seattle Kraken by 2 9.7% 6.4% 8.7% 0.74× 15.68
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How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

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