Toronto Maple Leafs v Ottawa Senators — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Wednesday 23 September 2026 · NHL · 2027
NHL results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
nhl-ai No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Toronto Maple Leafs win
37.5%
Draw
19.6%
Ottawa Senators win
42.8%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| nhl-ai | 2.70–3.52 | 3-3 6% | 94% | 91% | |
| nhl-dc | 2.70–3.52 | 2-3 5% | 95% | 91% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it.
Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits
from what that selection normally does in this league.
To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the
Radar.
All markets
Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.
1X2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ottawa Senators to win | 42.8% | 44.8% | 31.2% | 1.44× | 2.23 |
| Toronto Maple Leafs to win | 37.5% | 35.4% | 42.6% | 0.83× | 2.82 |
| Draw | 19.6% | 17.6% | 26.3% | 0.67× | 5.69 |
1X2 1UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ottawa Senators (1UP) | 71.0% | 76.9% | 49.3% | 1.56× | 1.30 |
| Toronto Maple Leafs (1UP) | 65.9% | 67.6% | 58.7% | 1.15× | 1.48 |
1X2 2UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ottawa Senators (2UP) | 44.8% | 47.8% | 33.4% | 1.43× | 2.09 |
| Toronto Maple Leafs (2UP) | 37.8% | 36.8% | 44.5% | 0.83× | 2.72 |
Asian handicap 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ottawa Senators (+2.5) | 89.1% | 90.1% | 90.3% | 1.00× | 1.11 |
| Ottawa Senators (+1.5) | 78.4% | 81.6% | 78.1% | 1.04× | 1.23 |
| Ottawa Senators (+0.5) | 62.5% | 63.7% | 57.4% | 1.11× | 1.57 |
| Toronto Maple Leafs (+0.5) | 57.2% | 57.5% | 68.8% | 0.83× | 1.74 |
| Ottawa Senators (-0.5) | 42.8% | 42.5% | 31.2% | 1.36× | 2.35 |
| Toronto Maple Leafs (-0.5) | 37.5% | 36.3% | 42.6% | 0.85× | 2.76 |
| Toronto Maple Leafs (-1.5) | 21.6% | 18.4% | 21.9% | 0.84× | 5.42 |
| Toronto Maple Leafs (-2.5) | 11.0% | 9.9% | 9.7% | 1.02× | 10.06 |
Away no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Maple Leafs (away no bet) | 65.7% | 63.5% | 61.8% | 1.03× | 1.58 |
| Draw (away no bet) | 34.3% | 36.5% | 38.2% | 0.96× | 2.74 |
Both halves O1.5 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both halves over 1.5 goals | 63.3% | 62.1% | 16.9% | 3.68× | 1.61 |
| Not both halves over 1.5 | 36.7% | 37.9% | 83.1% | 0.46× | 2.64 |
Both halves U1.5 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both halves under 1.5 | 96.4% | 96.4% | 64.8% | 1.49× | 1.04 |
| Both halves under 1.5 goals | 3.6% | 3.6% | 35.2% | 0.10× | 28.02 |
Consecutive goals 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Either team to score 2+ in a row | 90.4% | 91.1% | 57.4% | 1.59× | 1.10 |
| Ottawa Senators to score 2+ in a row | 66.7% | 61.7% | 27.9% | 2.21× | 1.62 |
| Toronto Maple Leafs to score 2+ in a row | 60.9% | 60.3% | 36.2% | 1.66× | 1.66 |
| Either team to score 3+ in a row | 54.6% | 51.5% | 22.4% | 2.30× | 1.94 |
| Ottawa Senators to score 3+ in a row | 33.7% | 29.5% | 8.9% | 3.33× | 3.39 |
| Toronto Maple Leafs to score 3+ in a row | 26.7% | 25.4% | 13.9% | 1.82× | 3.94 |
Correct score 26
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any other score | 35.0% | 35.0% | 3.8% | 9.25× | 2.85 |
| 3-3 | 6.0% | 7.5% | 1.2% | 6.19× | 13.39 |
| 2-2 | 5.7% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 1.29× | 13.39 |
| 3-2 | 5.2% | 7.5% | 2.9% | 2.57× | 13.40 |
| 2-3 | 4.2% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 0.79× | 57.46 |
| 2-4 | 3.7% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 3.37× | 57.48 |
| 4-2 | 3.5% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 1.72× | 57.48 |
| 4-3 | 4.1% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 3.07× | 57.47 |
| 4-4 | 3.6% | 1.7% | 0.2% | 8.84× | 57.48 |
| 1-1 | 2.4% | 1.7% | 11.4% | 0.15× | 57.52 |
| 1-2 | 2.6% | 1.7% | 7.0% | 0.25× | 57.51 |
| 1-3 | 3.1% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 0.61× | 57.50 |
| 1-4 | 2.7% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 1.68× | 57.51 |
| 2-1 | 3.3% | 1.7% | 8.5% | 0.21× | 57.49 |
| 3-1 | 2.9% | 1.7% | 4.7% | 0.37× | 57.50 |
| 3-4 | 3.3% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 3.53× | 57.49 |
| 4-1 | 2.0% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 0.97× | 57.53 |
| 0-0 | 0.3% | 1.7% | 7.8% | 0.22× | 57.58 |
| 0-1 | 0.6% | 1.7% | 7.0% | 0.25× | 57.57 |
| 0-2 | 1.0% | 1.7% | 5.3% | 0.33× | 57.56 |
| 0-3 | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 0.69× | 57.56 |
| 0-4 | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.60× | 57.56 |
| 1-0 | 0.7% | 1.7% | 8.8% | 0.20× | 57.57 |
| 2-0 | 0.9% | 1.7% | 6.5% | 0.27× | 57.56 |
| 3-0 | 0.8% | 1.7% | 3.9% | 0.44× | 57.57 |
| 4-0 | 0.6% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 0.99× | 57.57 |
DNB half time 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ottawa Senators leading at HT (DNB) | 51.0% | 55.5% | 43.2% | 1.28× | 1.80 |
| Toronto Maple Leafs leading at HT (DNB) | 49.0% | 44.5% | 56.8% | 0.78× | 2.25 |
Double chance 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Maple Leafs or Ottawa Senators (12) | 80.4% | 82.4% | 73.7% | 1.12× | 1.21 |
| Ottawa Senators or draw (X2) | 62.5% | 64.6% | 57.4% | 1.12× | 1.55 |
| Toronto Maple Leafs or draw (1X) | 57.2% | 55.2% | 68.8% | 0.80× | 1.81 |
Double chance 1UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ottawa Senators or draw (1UP) | 71.0% | 79.9% | 64.5% | 1.24× | 1.25 |
| Toronto Maple Leafs or draw (1UP) | 65.9% | 76.2% | 74.6% | 1.02× | 1.31 |
Draw no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ottawa Senators (DNB) | 53.3% | 52.7% | 42.3% | 1.25× | 1.90 |
| Toronto Maple Leafs (DNB) | 46.7% | 47.3% | 57.7% | 0.82× | 2.11 |
First goal 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ottawa Senators to score first | 56.5% | 61.8% | 42.0% | 1.47× | 1.62 |
| Toronto Maple Leafs to score first | 43.3% | 41.4% | 50.2% | 0.82× | 2.42 |
| No goal scored | 0.3% | 5.0% | 7.8% | 0.65× | 19.91 |
GG/NG 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 91.1% | 91.1% | 54.0% | 1.69× | 1.10 |
| Not both teams to score | 8.9% | 8.9% | 46.0% | 0.19× | 11.25 |
GG/NG 2+ 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score 2+ | 66.4% | 72.9% | 15.5% | 4.69× | 1.37 |
| Not both teams to score 2+ | 33.6% | 27.1% | 84.5% | 0.32× | 3.69 |
GG/NG 2nd half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score in 2nd half | 69.6% | 67.5% | 29.1% | 2.32× | 1.48 |
| Not both to score in 2nd half | 30.4% | 32.5% | 70.9% | 0.46× | 3.08 |
GG/NG half time 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score by HT | 52.1% | 52.1% | 18.0% | 2.90× | 1.92 |
| Not both to score by HT | 47.9% | 47.9% | 82.0% | 0.58× | 2.09 |
Goal range 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-6 goals | 44.9% | 42.3% | 29.1% | 1.45× | 2.37 |
| 7+ goals | 41.4% | 42.2% | 2.4% | 17.48× | 2.37 |
| 2-3 goals | 12.1% | 14.2% | 45.0% | 0.32× | 7.04 |
| 0-1 goals | 1.5% | 1.8% | 23.6% | 0.08× | 55.28 |
Goals away 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ottawa Senators to score 3+ | 62.3% | 62.6% | 13.9% | 4.50× | 1.60 |
| Ottawa Senators to score exactly 2 | 21.1% | 21.6% | 22.3% | 0.97× | 4.64 |
| Ottawa Senators to score exactly 1 | 12.9% | 10.6% | 34.3% | 0.31× | 9.47 |
| Ottawa Senators to score exactly 0 | 3.8% | 2.2% | 29.6% | 0.08× | 44.82 |
Goals home 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Maple Leafs to score 3+ | 56.3% | 53.1% | 20.8% | 2.55× | 1.88 |
| Toronto Maple Leafs to score exactly 2 | 22.9% | 23.9% | 23.6% | 1.01× | 4.19 |
| Toronto Maple Leafs to score exactly 1 | 15.4% | 19.2% | 31.4% | 0.61× | 5.21 |
| Toronto Maple Leafs to score exactly 0 | 5.4% | 7.1% | 24.2% | 0.29× | 14.08 |
Half time 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ottawa Senators leading at HT | 37.3% | 38.3% | 25.3% | 1.52× | 2.61 |
| Toronto Maple Leafs leading at HT | 35.8% | 38.3% | 33.2% | 1.15× | 2.61 |
| Draw at HT | 26.8% | 25.6% | 41.5% | 0.62× | 3.91 |
Handicap 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ottawa Senators -1: 1 | 57.2% | 55.1% | — | — | 1.81 |
| Ottawa Senators -1: 2 | 30.0% | 31.3% | — | — | 3.20 |
| Ottawa Senators -1: X | 12.8% | 11.4% | — | — | 8.76 |
Handicap 0:1 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ottawa Senators (0:1) | 62.5% | 66.3% | 57.4% | 1.15× | 1.51 |
| Toronto Maple Leafs (0:1) | 21.6% | 23.9% | 21.9% | 1.09× | 4.19 |
| Draw (0:1) | 15.9% | 14.4% | 20.7% | 0.70× | 6.92 |
Handicap 0:2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ottawa Senators (0:2) | 78.4% | 81.0% | 78.1% | 1.04× | 1.24 |
| Toronto Maple Leafs (0:2) | 11.0% | 10.3% | 9.7% | 1.06× | 9.69 |
| Draw (0:2) | 10.7% | 10.3% | 12.2% | 0.85× | 9.69 |
Handicap 0:3 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ottawa Senators (0:3) | 89.1% | 89.8% | 90.3% | 1.00× | 1.11 |
| Draw (0:3) | 6.1% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 0.93× | 17.86 |
| Toronto Maple Leafs (0:3) | 4.9% | 1.7% | 3.7% | 0.46× | 57.98 |
Handicap 0:4 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ottawa Senators (0:4) | 95.1% | 98.3% | 96.3% | 1.02× | 1.02 |
| Draw (0:4) | 3.0% | 1.1% | 2.6% | 0.42× | 92.01 |
| Toronto Maple Leafs (0:4) | 1.9% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.93× | 92.87 |
Handicap 1:0 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Maple Leafs (1:0) | 57.2% | 53.6% | 68.8% | 0.78× | 1.87 |
| Ottawa Senators (1:0) | 30.0% | 29.8% | 14.5% | 2.05× | 3.36 |
| Draw (1:0) | 12.8% | 11.0% | 16.7% | 0.66× | 9.13 |
Handicap 2:0 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Maple Leafs (2:0) | 70.0% | 69.8% | 85.5% | 0.82× | 1.43 |
| Ottawa Senators (2:0) | 18.8% | 18.3% | 5.9% | 3.12× | 5.46 |
| Draw (2:0) | 11.3% | 12.1% | 8.7% | 1.40× | 8.23 |
Highest scoring half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd half highest scoring | 58.1% | 61.4% | 47.5% | 1.29× | 1.63 |
| 1st half highest scoring | 26.0% | 26.5% | 25.7% | 1.03× | 3.78 |
| Halves equal | 15.8% | 18.3% | 26.7% | 0.68× | 5.46 |
Home no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ottawa Senators (home no bet) | 68.6% | 67.2% | 54.3% | 1.24× | 1.49 |
| Draw (home no bet) | 31.4% | 32.8% | 45.7% | 0.72× | 3.05 |
HT correct score 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any other HT score | 25.5% | 28.7% | 4.7% | 6.16× | 3.49 |
| HT 1-1 | 12.8% | 10.8% | 10.0% | 1.08× | 9.23 |
| HT 0-1 | 9.9% | 7.0% | 16.1% | 0.44× | 14.23 |
| HT 1-0 | 10.0% | 7.0% | 20.3% | 0.35× | 14.23 |
| HT 2-1 | 8.1% | 7.0% | 3.2% | 2.23× | 14.25 |
| HT 1-2 | 8.1% | 7.0% | 2.7% | 2.64× | 14.25 |
| HT 0-0 | 7.8% | 7.0% | 30.7% | 0.23× | 14.26 |
| HT 0-2 | 6.4% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 1.47× | 14.28 |
| HT 2-0 | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 1.00× | 14.29 |
| HT 2-2 | 5.2% | 7.0% | 0.9% | 8.12× | 14.30 |
HT/FT 9
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ottawa Senators at HT / Ottawa Senators at FT | 27.0% | 26.7% | 17.0% | 1.57× | 3.74 |
| Toronto Maple Leafs at HT / Toronto Maple Leafs at FT | 23.6% | 21.9% | 25.3% | 0.86× | 4.57 |
| Draw at HT / Ottawa Senators at FT | 10.5% | 12.7% | 11.4% | 1.12× | 7.88 |
| Draw at HT / Toronto Maple Leafs at FT | 9.4% | 6.3% | 14.4% | 0.43× | 15.98 |
| Draw at HT / Draw at FT | 7.0% | 6.2% | 15.8% | 0.39× | 16.05 |
| Toronto Maple Leafs at HT / Draw at FT | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 1.23× | 16.05 |
| Ottawa Senators at HT / Draw at FT | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 1.14× | 16.08 |
| Toronto Maple Leafs at HT / Ottawa Senators at FT | 5.4% | 6.2% | 2.9% | 2.18× | 16.09 |
| Ottawa Senators at HT / Toronto Maple Leafs at FT | 4.6% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 1.18× | 29.45 |
Last goal 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ottawa Senators to score last | 52.2% | 52.5% | 41.9% | 1.25× | 1.91 |
| Toronto Maple Leafs to score last | 47.6% | 46.1% | 50.3% | 0.92× | 2.17 |
| No goal scored | 0.3% | 5.0% | 7.8% | 0.65× | 19.91 |
Lead at any time 9
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Either team to lead by 1 at any time | 99.7% | 94.9% | 92.2% | 1.03× | 1.05 |
| Either team to lead by 2 at any time | 79.1% | 78.9% | 47.3% | 1.67× | 1.27 |
| Ottawa Senators to lead by 1 at any time | 71.0% | 75.6% | 49.3% | 1.54× | 1.32 |
| Toronto Maple Leafs to lead by 1 at any time | 65.9% | 66.6% | 58.7% | 1.13× | 1.50 |
| Ottawa Senators to lead by 2 at any time | 44.8% | 38.4% | 19.9% | 1.93× | 2.61 |
| Either team to lead by 3 at any time | 44.5% | 38.4% | 19.0% | 2.01× | 2.61 |
| Toronto Maple Leafs to lead by 2 at any time | 37.8% | 34.1% | 27.8% | 1.23× | 2.93 |
| Ottawa Senators to lead by 3 at any time | 26.1% | 23.4% | 7.2% | 3.26× | 4.28 |
| Toronto Maple Leafs to lead by 3 at any time | 18.5% | 14.6% | 11.9% | 1.23× | 6.85 |
Multi goal 15
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2-6 goals | 57.1% | 58.4% | 74.0% | 0.79× | 1.71 |
| 3-6 goals | 52.8% | 51.2% | 50.9% | 1.01× | 1.96 |
| 4-6 goals | 44.9% | 42.2% | 29.1% | 1.45× | 2.37 |
| 1-5 goals | 41.7% | 42.2% | 85.7% | 0.49× | 2.37 |
| 7+ goals | 41.4% | 42.2% | 2.4% | 17.50× | 2.37 |
| 2-5 goals | 40.4% | 42.2% | 69.9% | 0.60× | 2.37 |
| 3-5 goals | 36.1% | 39.4% | 46.8% | 0.84× | 2.54 |
| 5-6 goals | 31.7% | 32.7% | 13.1% | 2.50× | 3.06 |
| 4-5 goals | 28.3% | 26.1% | 25.0% | 1.05× | 3.83 |
| 1-4 goals | 26.6% | 26.1% | 76.8% | 0.34× | 3.84 |
| 2-4 goals | 25.4% | 26.0% | 61.0% | 0.43× | 3.84 |
| 3-4 goals | 21.1% | 20.8% | 37.8% | 0.55× | 4.80 |
| 1-3 goals | 13.4% | 10.8% | 60.8% | 0.18× | 9.30 |
| 2-3 goals | 12.1% | 10.7% | 45.0% | 0.24× | 9.34 |
| 1-2 goals | 5.5% | 4.8% | 39.0% | 0.12× | 20.63 |
Never down 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ottawa Senators never behind | 33.8% | 36.0% | 41.3% | 0.87× | 2.78 |
| Toronto Maple Leafs never behind | 28.7% | 30.6% | 50.7% | 0.60× | 3.27 |
Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even number of goals | 51.9% | 50.3% | 51.6% | 0.98× | 1.99 |
| Odd number of goals | 48.1% | 49.7% | 48.5% | 1.03× | 2.01 |
Odd/Even 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even goals in 1st half | 50.3% | 52.2% | 54.6% | 0.96× | 1.92 |
| Odd goals in 1st half | 49.7% | 47.8% | 45.4% | 1.05× | 2.09 |
Odd/Even 2HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even goals in 2nd half | 50.1% | 52.4% | 52.1% | 1.01× | 1.91 |
| Odd goals in 2nd half | 49.9% | 47.6% | 47.9% | 0.99× | 2.10 |
Over/Under 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 99.7% | 95.8% | 92.2% | 1.04× | 1.04 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 98.5% | 95.7% | 76.4% | 1.25× | 1.05 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 94.2% | 93.0% | 53.3% | 1.75× | 1.08 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 86.4% | 89.3% | 31.5% | 2.84× | 1.12 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 73.1% | 72.0% | 15.5% | 4.65× | 1.39 |
| Over 5.5 goals | 58.1% | 59.5% | 6.5% | 9.09× | 1.68 |
| Under 5.5 goals | 41.9% | 40.5% | 93.5% | 0.43× | 2.47 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 26.9% | 28.0% | 84.5% | 0.33× | 3.57 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 13.6% | 10.7% | 68.5% | 0.16× | 9.32 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 5.8% | 7.0% | 46.7% | 0.15× | 14.25 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 1.5% | 4.3% | 23.6% | 0.18× | 23.42 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 0.3% | 4.2% | 7.8% | 0.55× | 23.57 |
Over/Under (whole line) 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2 (void on exactly 2) | 98.4% | 98.1% | 69.3% | 1.42× | 1.02 |
| Over 3 (void on exactly 3) | 93.7% | 94.9% | 40.2% | 2.36× | 1.05 |
| Over 4 (void on exactly 4) | 84.3% | 83.8% | 18.4% | 4.55× | 1.19 |
| Over 5 (void on exactly 5) | 68.4% | 68.5% | 7.2% | 9.53× | 1.46 |
| Under 6 (void on exactly 6) | 50.3% | 51.2% | 97.5% | 0.53× | 1.95 |
| Over 6 (void on exactly 6) | 49.7% | 48.8% | 2.5% | 19.40× | 2.05 |
| Under 5 (void on exactly 5) | 31.6% | 31.5% | 92.8% | 0.34× | 3.18 |
| Under 4 (void on exactly 4) | 15.7% | 16.2% | 81.6% | 0.20× | 6.17 |
| Under 3 (void on exactly 3) | 6.3% | 5.1% | 59.8% | 0.09× | 19.43 |
| Under 2 (void on exactly 2) | 1.6% | 1.9% | 30.7% | 0.06× | 52.79 |
Score both halves 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ottawa Senators to score in both halves | 62.1% | 64.2% | 21.9% | 2.92× | 1.56 |
| Toronto Maple Leafs to score in both halves | 58.2% | 56.6% | 28.9% | 1.96× | 1.77 |
| Toronto Maple Leafs not to score in both halves | 41.8% | 43.4% | 71.1% | 0.61× | 2.30 |
| Ottawa Senators not to score in both halves | 37.9% | 35.8% | 78.1% | 0.46× | 2.79 |
Teams to score 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams score | 91.1% | 91.1% | 54.0% | 1.69× | 1.10 |
| Only Ottawa Senators scores | 5.1% | 7.3% | 16.5% | 0.44× | 13.72 |
| Only Toronto Maple Leafs scores | 3.5% | 4.9% | 21.8% | 0.22× | 20.52 |
| Neither team scores | 0.3% | 4.8% | 7.8% | 0.62× | 20.90 |
Total goals 7
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 or more goals | 58.1% | 58.1% | 6.5% | 8.88× | 1.72 |
| Exactly 5 goals | 15.0% | 18.0% | 9.0% | 2.01× | 5.55 |
| Exactly 4 goals | 13.2% | 11.5% | 16.0% | 0.72× | 8.72 |
| Exactly 3 goals | 7.9% | 7.3% | 21.8% | 0.34× | 13.67 |
| Exactly 2 goals | 4.3% | 4.3% | 23.2% | 0.19× | 23.27 |
| Exactly 1 goals | 1.2% | 4.2% | 15.8% | 0.27× | 23.64 |
| Exactly 0 goals | 0.3% | 4.2% | 7.8% | 0.54× | 23.76 |
Total goals 2nd half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2+ goals in 2nd half | 87.4% | 87.4% | 48.7% | 1.80× | 1.14 |
| 1 goal in 2nd half | 9.8% | 9.6% | 32.0% | 0.30× | 10.43 |
| No goals in 2nd half | 2.8% | 2.7% | 19.3% | 0.14× | 37.10 |
Win both halves 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Maple Leafs not to win both halves | 88.9% | 88.2% | 87.0% | 1.01× | 1.13 |
| Ottawa Senators not to win both halves | 83.1% | 83.9% | 92.0% | 0.91× | 1.19 |
| Ottawa Senators to win both halves | 16.9% | 16.1% | 8.0% | 2.01× | 6.20 |
| Toronto Maple Leafs to win both halves | 11.1% | 11.8% | 13.0% | 0.91× | 8.47 |
Winning margin 7
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 19.6% | 17.2% | 26.3% | 0.65× | 5.82 |
| Ottawa Senators by 3+ | 18.8% | 17.2% | 5.9% | 2.92× | 5.82 |
| Toronto Maple Leafs by 1 | 15.9% | 17.1% | 20.7% | 0.83× | 5.84 |
| Ottawa Senators by 1 | 12.8% | 11.1% | 16.7% | 0.67× | 8.98 |
| Ottawa Senators by 2 | 11.3% | 11.1% | 8.7% | 1.28× | 9.00 |
| Toronto Maple Leafs by 3+ | 11.0% | 11.1% | 9.7% | 1.14× | 9.00 |
| Toronto Maple Leafs by 2 | 10.7% | 11.1% | 12.2% | 0.91× | 9.00 |