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1. FC Magdeburg v Kaiserslautern — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 12 September 2026 · GER-2. Bundesliga · 2627

GER-2. Bundesliga results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
1. FC Magdeburg win
49.7%
model 45.4%
Draw
22.0%
model 24.9%
Kaiserslautern win
28.3%
model 29.7%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (413 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 11.6%
  2. 2-1 9.3%
  3. 1-0 8.3%
  4. 1-2 7.3%
  5. 2-0 7.2%

Goals

Over 2.556.4% Under 2.543.6%
BTTS yes59.0% BTTS no41.0%
1. FC Magdeburg 1+80.8% 1. FC Magdeburg 2+49.1%
Kaiserslautern 1+72.6% Kaiserslautern 2+37.1%

Expected goals 1.65 – 1.29. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
24/100
Data quality
65/100
Model agreement
98%
★ Best pick
1. FC Magdeburg corners (+1.5)
Corner handicap
79.7% fair odds 1.25
moderate signal · 14455 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
1. FC Magdeburg over 0.5 goals
Home goals O/U · usually 81%
82.7% fair odds 1.21
moderate signal · 1110 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

  • The model's measured edge in this competition is 0.0041 nats, which is not meaningfully better than the base rates.
Why the model thinks this

The price

1. FC Magdeburg have an estimated 49.7% win probability, against 28.3% for Kaiserslautern and 22.0% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.65 for 1. FC Magdeburg and 1.29 for Kaiserslautern.

Why 1. FC Magdeburg

Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 22.0%. Draws run at 26% in this competition.

Why Kaiserslautern can win

Form is good: 2.20 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for 1. FC Magdeburg, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Kaiserslautern, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

1. FC Magdeburg: 48% possession, 13.2 shots a match, 14.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Kaiserslautern: 42% possession, 10.2 shots a match, 17.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-07 06:03 · team_stats 2026-09-07 06:05 · availability 2026-09-07 07:51 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

1. FC Magdeburg are the model's most likely outcome at 49.7%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.6%. Confidence 24/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.65–1.29 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.67–1.38 1-1 11% 59% 61%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1. FC Magdeburg to win 44.0% 43.0% 43.1% 1.00× 2.32
Kaiserslautern to win 31.5% 30.3% 31.2% 0.97× 3.30
Draw 24.5% 24.5% 25.9% 0.94× 4.09
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1. FC Magdeburg & both teams score 24.0% 21.9% 22.2% 0.99× 4.57
1. FC Magdeburg & not both score 20.0% 17.9% 21.1% 0.85× 5.58
Draw & both teams score 19.4% 17.9% 19.7% 0.91× 5.58
Kaiserslautern & both teams score 17.8% 17.9% 18.1% 0.99× 5.58
Kaiserslautern & not both score 13.7% 13.3% 13.3% 1.00× 7.54
Draw & not both score 5.1% 8.4% 6.4% 1.31× 11.94
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1. FC Magdeburg & over 1.5 36.5% 34.9% 34.3% 1.02× 2.87
1. FC Magdeburg & over 2.5 29.9% 26.0% 27.8% 0.94× 3.84
1. FC Magdeburg & under 3.5 26.9% 26.0% 27.8% 0.94× 3.84
Kaiserslautern & over 1.5 25.3% 26.0% 25.9% 1.00× 3.84
Kaiserslautern & over 2.5 20.8% 21.7% 22.2% 0.98× 4.62
Kaiserslautern & under 3.5 20.3% 21.7% 21.1% 1.03× 4.62
Draw & over 1.5 19.4% 18.0% 19.7% 0.92× 5.56
1. FC Magdeburg & over 3.5 17.1% 18.0% 15.4% 1.16× 5.56
Draw & under 2.5 16.3% 18.0% 16.8% 1.07× 5.56
Draw & under 3.5 16.3% 18.0% 16.8% 1.07× 5.56
1. FC Magdeburg & under 2.5 14.1% 12.9% 15.4% 0.83× 7.77
Kaiserslautern & under 2.5 10.7% 12.9% 9.2% 1.40× 7.77
Kaiserslautern & over 3.5 11.2% 12.9% 10.3% 1.25× 7.77
1. FC Magdeburg & under 1.5 7.5% 7.9% 8.9% 0.89× 12.70
Draw & over 2.5 8.2% 7.9% 9.2% 0.86× 12.70
Draw & over 3.5 8.2% 7.9% 9.2% 0.86× 12.70
Kaiserslautern & under 1.5 6.2% 7.9% 5.5% 1.44× 12.70
Draw & under 1.5 5.1% 7.9% 6.4% 1.23× 12.70
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1. FC Magdeburg (1UP) 61.4% 63.0% 1.59
Kaiserslautern (1UP) 50.8% 52.5% 1.90
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1. FC Magdeburg (2UP) 44.0% 47.8% 2.09
Kaiserslautern (2UP) 31.5% 30.8% 3.24
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1. FC Magdeburg to win 2nd half 36.7% 36.1% 2.77
2nd half drawn 33.2% 34.5% 2.90
Kaiserslautern to win 2nd half 30.0% 34.5% 2.90
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kaiserslautern (+2.5) 90.3% 92.1% 90.6% 1.02× 1.09
Kaiserslautern (+1.5) 76.9% 78.4% 77.7% 1.01× 1.28
1. FC Magdeburg (+0.5) 68.5% 68.7% 68.8% 1.00× 1.46
Kaiserslautern (+0.5) 56.0% 57.0% 56.9% 1.00× 1.76
1. FC Magdeburg (-0.5) 44.0% 43.0% 43.1% 1.00× 2.33
Kaiserslautern (-0.5) 31.5% 31.3% 31.2% 1.00× 3.20
1. FC Magdeburg (-1.5) 23.1% 21.6% 22.3% 0.97× 4.64
1. FC Magdeburg (-2.5) 9.7% 7.9% 9.4% 0.85× 12.61
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kaiserslautern to concede 81.2% 81.3% 80.5% 1.01× 1.23
Kaiserslautern clean sheet 18.8% 18.7% 19.5% 0.96× 5.35
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kaiserslautern clean sheet in 1st half 48.7% 50.8% 1.97
Kaiserslautern to concede in 1st half 51.3% 49.2% 2.03
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kaiserslautern under 6.5 corners 83.3% 81.5% 1.23
Kaiserslautern over 2.5 corners 74.7% 71.6% 1.40
Kaiserslautern under 5.5 corners 73.0% 71.6% 1.40
Kaiserslautern under 4.5 corners 59.1% 57.1% 1.75
Kaiserslautern over 3.5 corners 57.6% 57.1% 1.75
Kaiserslautern under 3.5 corners 42.4% 42.9% 2.33
Kaiserslautern over 4.5 corners 40.9% 42.9% 2.33
Kaiserslautern over 5.5 corners 27.0% 28.4% 3.52
Kaiserslautern under 2.5 corners 25.3% 28.4% 3.52
Kaiserslautern over 6.5 corners 16.7% 18.5% 5.40
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kaiserslautern under 3.5 goals 94.8% 92.3% 94.5% 0.98× 1.08
Kaiserslautern under 2.5 goals 83.7% 81.4% 83.6% 0.97× 1.23
Kaiserslautern over 0.5 goals 74.9% 72.0% 72.7% 0.99× 1.39
Kaiserslautern under 1.5 goals 59.7% 59.5% 60.2% 0.99× 1.68
Kaiserslautern over 1.5 goals 40.3% 40.5% 39.8% 1.02× 2.47
Kaiserslautern under 0.5 goals 25.1% 28.0% 27.3% 1.03× 3.57
Kaiserslautern over 2.5 goals 16.3% 18.6% 16.4% 1.13× 5.38
Kaiserslautern over 3.5 goals 5.2% 7.7% 5.5% 1.40× 13.06
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kaiserslautern under 1.5 in 1st half 89.3% 89.1% 1.12
Kaiserslautern under 0.5 in 1st half 57.5% 62.4% 1.60
Kaiserslautern over 0.5 in 1st half 42.5% 37.6% 2.66
Kaiserslautern over 1.5 in 1st half 10.7% 10.9% 9.22
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1. FC Magdeburg (away no bet) 64.2% 62.1% 62.4% 0.99× 1.61
Draw (away no bet) 35.8% 37.9% 37.6% 1.01× 2.64
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kaiserslautern even goals 53.1% 52.8% 54.1% 0.98× 1.89
Kaiserslautern odd goals 46.9% 47.2% 45.9% 1.03× 2.12
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 80.7% 82.8% 1.21
Both halves over 1.5 goals 19.3% 17.2% 5.83
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 70.4% 67.1% 1.49
Both halves under 1.5 goals 29.6% 32.9% 3.04
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 61.5% 59.8% 1.67
1. FC Magdeburg to score 2+ in a row 39.9% 36.6% 2.73
Kaiserslautern to score 2+ in a row 30.1% 28.9% 3.46
Either team to score 3+ in a row 23.3% 19.5% 5.12
1. FC Magdeburg to score 3+ in a row 14.8% 12.2% 8.17
Kaiserslautern to score 3+ in a row 9.0% 5.7% 17.56
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1. FC Magdeburg corners (+3.5) 91.8% 89.6% 1.12
1. FC Magdeburg corners (+2.5) 86.9% 84.5% 1.18
1. FC Magdeburg corners (+1.5) 80.1% 79.7% 1.25
Kaiserslautern corners (+3.5) 69.7% 65.8% 1.52
Kaiserslautern corners (+2.5) 59.9% 57.1% 1.75
1. FC Magdeburg corners (-1.5) 50.8% 52.5% 1.91
Kaiserslautern corners (+1.5) 49.2% 47.5% 2.10
1. FC Magdeburg corners (-2.5) 40.1% 42.9% 2.33
1. FC Magdeburg corners (-3.5) 30.3% 34.2% 2.92
Kaiserslautern corners (-1.5) 19.9% 20.3% 4.93
Kaiserslautern corners (-2.5) 13.1% 15.5% 6.45
Kaiserslautern corners (-3.5) 8.2% 10.4% 9.59
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 36.0% 33.7% 2.97
12+ corners 33.5% 33.2% 3.01
9-11 corners 30.5% 33.2% 3.01
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 74.7% 72.6% 1.38
Over 7.5 corners 74.1% 72.6% 1.38
Under 11.5 corners 66.5% 67.7% 1.48
Over 8.5 corners 64.0% 63.4% 1.58
Under 10.5 corners 57.0% 57.8% 1.73
Over 9.5 corners 53.4% 53.3% 1.88
Under 9.5 corners 46.6% 46.7% 2.14
Over 10.5 corners 43.0% 42.2% 2.37
Under 8.5 corners 36.0% 36.6% 2.73
Over 11.5 corners 33.5% 32.3% 3.09
Under 7.5 corners 25.9% 27.4% 3.66
Over 12.5 corners 25.3% 27.4% 3.66
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.8% 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 11.3% 11.5% 10.6% 1.08× 8.73
2-1 9.1% 7.4% 8.7% 0.85× 13.48
1-0 7.5% 7.4% 8.9% 0.83× 13.48
1-2 7.5% 7.4% 9.0% 0.82× 13.48
2-0 6.6% 7.4% 6.7% 1.11× 13.48
0-0 5.1% 7.4% 6.4% 1.16× 13.48
0-1 6.2% 7.4% 5.5% 1.36× 13.48
2-2 6.3% 7.4% 7.2% 1.03× 13.48
3-1 5.1% 7.4% 5.5% 1.36× 13.48
0-2 4.5% 1.7% 3.9% 0.44× 58.46
0-3 2.1% 1.7% 3.1% 0.55× 58.48
0-4 0.7% 1.7% 1.1% 1.57× 58.49
1-3 3.5% 1.7% 2.5% 0.69× 58.47
1-4 1.2% 1.7% 0.9% 1.83× 58.48
2-3 2.9% 1.7% 2.8% 0.61× 58.47
2-4 1.0% 1.7% 0.8% 2.19× 58.48
3-0 3.7% 1.7% 3.9% 0.44× 58.47
3-2 3.5% 1.7% 3.1% 0.55× 58.47
3-3 1.6% 1.7% 2.0% 0.84× 58.48
3-4 0.6% 1.7% 0.9% 1.83× 58.49
4-0 1.5% 1.7% 0.9% 1.83× 58.48
4-1 2.1% 1.7% 2.0% 0.84× 58.48
4-2 1.5% 1.7% 0.8% 2.19× 58.48
4-3 0.7% 1.7% 0.6% 2.74× 58.49
4-4 0.2% 1.7% 0.3% 5.48× 58.49
Any other score 4.1% 1.7% 5.5% 0.31× 58.47
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1. FC Magdeburg leading at HT (DNB) 58.6% 58.0% 1.73
Kaiserslautern leading at HT (DNB) 41.4% 42.0% 2.38
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1. FC Magdeburg or Kaiserslautern (12) 75.5% 75.5% 74.1% 1.02× 1.32
1. FC Magdeburg or draw (1X) 68.5% 69.7% 68.8% 1.01× 1.44
Kaiserslautern or draw (X2) 56.0% 57.0% 56.9% 1.00× 1.76
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1. FC Magdeburg or draw at HT 75.4% 79.8% 1.25
Kaiserslautern or draw at HT 65.1% 66.3% 1.51
1. FC Magdeburg or Kaiserslautern at HT 59.5% 56.9% 1.76
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1. FC Magdeburg or draw (1UP) 68.5% 76.0% 1.32
Kaiserslautern or draw (1UP) 56.0% 62.6% 1.60
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1. FC Magdeburg or draw in 2nd half 70.0% 65.5% 1.53
1. FC Magdeburg or Kaiserslautern in 2nd half 66.8% 65.5% 1.53
Kaiserslautern or draw in 2nd half 63.3% 63.9% 1.56
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 59.8% 58.1% 1.72
Neither half drawn 40.2% 41.9% 2.39
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1. FC Magdeburg (DNB) 58.3% 58.3% 58.0% 1.01× 1.72
Kaiserslautern (DNB) 41.7% 41.7% 42.0% 0.99× 2.40
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1. FC Magdeburg to score first 51.9% 53.8% 1.86
Kaiserslautern to score first 43.0% 41.8% 2.39
No goal scored 5.1% 7.4% 13.45
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 61.2% 56.5% 59.6% 0.95× 1.77
Not both teams to score 38.8% 43.5% 40.4% 1.08× 2.30
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 49.9% 44.3% 49.1% 0.90× 2.26
Not both score & under 2.5 29.8% 33.6% 30.7% 1.09× 2.98
Both score & under 2.5 11.3% 12.3% 10.6% 1.16× 8.11
Not both score & over 2.5 8.9% 8.4% 9.8% 0.85× 11.95
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 80.0% 80.0% 80.5% 0.99× 1.25
Both teams to score 2+ 20.0% 20.0% 19.5% 1.03× 5.00
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 65.2% 67.5% 1.48
Both teams to score in 2nd half 34.8% 32.5% 3.08
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 50.9% 55.8% 1.79
Both score 2nd half only 27.2% 26.5% 3.77
Both score 1st half only 14.3% 10.8% 9.27
Both score in both halves 7.5% 6.8% 14.72
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 78.1% 81.5% 1.23
Both teams to score by HT 21.9% 18.5% 5.41
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 60.0% 58.7% 1.70
A half without a goal 40.0% 41.3% 2.42
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 44.8% 42.1% 45.1% 0.93× 2.37
4-6 goals 32.9% 30.8% 30.6% 1.01× 3.25
0-1 goals 18.7% 20.2% 20.4% 0.99× 4.95
7+ goals 3.6% 1.8% 4.2% 0.44× 54.43
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kaiserslautern to score exactly 1 34.7% 33.8% 33.1% 1.02× 2.96
Kaiserslautern to score exactly 0 25.1% 27.4% 27.3% 1.00× 3.65
Kaiserslautern to score exactly 2 24.0% 22.4% 23.6% 0.95× 4.46
Kaiserslautern to score 3+ 16.3% 19.6% 16.4% 1.19× 5.11
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1. FC Magdeburg to score exactly 1 31.4% 32.6% 31.8% 1.03× 3.06
1. FC Magdeburg to score exactly 2 26.3% 26.5% 26.4% 1.01× 3.77
1. FC Magdeburg to score 3+ 23.5% 23.2% 22.6% 1.03× 4.30
1. FC Magdeburg to score exactly 0 18.8% 18.9% 19.5% 0.97× 5.29
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 40.5% 43.1% 2.32
1. FC Magdeburg leading at HT 34.9% 33.7% 2.97
Kaiserslautern leading at HT 24.6% 20.2% 4.94
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1. FC Magdeburg -1: 2 56.0% 56.6% 1.77
1. FC Magdeburg -1: 1 23.1% 23.6% 4.24
1. FC Magdeburg -1: X 20.9% 23.6% 4.24
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kaiserslautern (0:1) 56.0% 55.8% 56.9% 0.98× 1.79
1. FC Magdeburg (0:1) 23.1% 24.3% 22.3% 1.09× 4.12
Draw (0:1) 20.9% 24.3% 20.9% 1.16× 4.12
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kaiserslautern (0:2) 76.9% 79.4% 77.7% 1.02× 1.26
Draw (0:2) 13.4% 11.0% 13.1% 0.84× 9.12
1. FC Magdeburg (0:2) 9.7% 7.7% 9.4% 0.83× 12.93
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kaiserslautern (0:3) 90.3% 92.6% 90.6% 1.02× 1.08
Draw (0:3) 6.3% 5.8% 5.9% 0.98× 17.18
1. FC Magdeburg (0:3) 3.4% 2.4% 3.6% 0.66× 42.11
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kaiserslautern (0:4) 96.6% 98.1% 96.4% 1.02× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 2.4% 1.2% 2.0% 0.59× 83.40
1. FC Magdeburg (0:4) 1.0% 1.2% 1.7% 0.70× 83.57
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1. FC Magdeburg (1:0) 68.5% 70.0% 68.8% 1.02× 1.43
Draw (1:0) 17.2% 17.0% 18.1% 0.94× 5.87
Kaiserslautern (1:0) 14.3% 12.8% 13.3% 0.97× 7.80
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1. FC Magdeburg (2:0) 85.7% 88.4% 86.7% 1.02× 1.13
Draw (2:0) 9.2% 6.5% 7.2% 0.90× 15.47
Kaiserslautern (2:0) 5.1% 6.4% 6.2% 1.03× 15.51
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 49.1% 48.2% 2.08
1st half highest scoring 27.1% 26.5% 3.77
Halves equal 23.8% 24.1% 4.15
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1. FC Magdeburg to concede 74.9% 73.1% 72.7% 1.01× 1.37
1. FC Magdeburg clean sheet 25.1% 26.9% 27.3% 0.98× 3.72
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1. FC Magdeburg clean sheet in 1st half 57.5% 62.4% 1.60
1. FC Magdeburg to concede in 1st half 42.5% 37.6% 2.66
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1. FC Magdeburg over 2.5 corners 88.7% 86.3% 1.16
1. FC Magdeburg over 3.5 corners 78.0% 76.6% 1.31
1. FC Magdeburg over 4.5 corners 64.7% 62.3% 1.61
1. FC Magdeburg under 6.5 corners 62.1% 62.3% 1.61
1. FC Magdeburg over 5.5 corners 50.9% 52.8% 1.90
1. FC Magdeburg under 5.5 corners 49.1% 47.2% 2.12
1. FC Magdeburg over 6.5 corners 37.9% 37.7% 2.65
1. FC Magdeburg under 4.5 corners 35.3% 37.7% 2.65
1. FC Magdeburg under 3.5 corners 22.0% 23.4% 4.27
1. FC Magdeburg under 2.5 corners 11.3% 13.7% 7.29
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1. FC Magdeburg under 3.5 goals 91.1% 92.2% 92.4% 1.00× 1.08
1. FC Magdeburg over 0.5 goals 81.2% 82.1% 80.5% 1.02× 1.22
1. FC Magdeburg under 2.5 goals 76.5% 77.7% 77.4% 1.00× 1.29
1. FC Magdeburg under 1.5 goals 50.2% 53.2% 51.2% 1.04× 1.88
1. FC Magdeburg over 1.5 goals 49.8% 46.8% 48.8% 0.96× 2.14
1. FC Magdeburg over 2.5 goals 23.5% 22.3% 22.6% 0.98× 4.49
1. FC Magdeburg under 0.5 goals 18.8% 17.9% 19.5% 0.92× 5.59
1. FC Magdeburg over 3.5 goals 8.9% 7.8% 7.6% 1.01× 12.90
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1. FC Magdeburg under 1.5 in 1st half 83.8% 84.3% 1.19
1. FC Magdeburg under 0.5 in 1st half 48.7% 50.9% 1.96
1. FC Magdeburg over 0.5 in 1st half 51.3% 49.1% 2.04
1. FC Magdeburg over 1.5 in 1st half 16.2% 15.7% 6.38
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kaiserslautern (home no bet) 56.2% 56.7% 54.6% 1.04× 1.77
Draw (home no bet) 43.8% 43.3% 45.4% 0.96× 2.31
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1. FC Magdeburg even goals 51.8% 50.6% 50.9% 1.00× 1.98
1. FC Magdeburg odd goals 48.2% 49.4% 49.1% 1.00× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 28.1% 28.9% 3.47
HT 1-0 20.1% 24.1% 4.16
HT 0-1 15.5% 18.7% 5.35
HT 1-1 11.2% 10.9% 9.17
HT 2-0 7.2% 7.1% 14.05
Any other HT score 5.5% 7.1% 14.07
HT 0-2 4.3% 2.3% 43.29
HT 2-1 4.0% 2.3% 43.32
HT 1-2 3.1% 2.3% 43.38
HT 2-2 1.1% 2.3% 43.53
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1. FC Magdeburg at HT / 1. FC Magdeburg at FT 26.6% 26.8% 3.74
Kaiserslautern at HT / Kaiserslautern at FT 16.9% 16.8% 5.97
Draw at HT / 1. FC Magdeburg at FT 14.7% 12.7% 7.88
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 13.9% 12.7% 7.88
Draw at HT / Kaiserslautern at FT 11.9% 12.7% 7.89
1. FC Magdeburg at HT / Draw at FT 5.7% 6.0% 16.72
Kaiserslautern at HT / Draw at FT 5.0% 3.5% 28.77
Kaiserslautern at HT / 1. FC Magdeburg at FT 2.8% 3.5% 28.86
1. FC Magdeburg at HT / Kaiserslautern at FT 2.6% 3.5% 28.86
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1. FC Magdeburg to score last 51.9% 52.0% 1.93
Kaiserslautern to score last 43.0% 40.1% 2.50
No goal scored 5.1% 7.4% 13.45
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 94.9% 92.7% 1.08
1. FC Magdeburg to lead by 1 at any time 61.4% 61.3% 1.63
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 51.1% 50.7% 1.97
Kaiserslautern to lead by 1 at any time 50.8% 50.6% 1.98
1. FC Magdeburg to lead by 2 at any time 30.5% 29.3% 3.41
Kaiserslautern to lead by 2 at any time 20.9% 19.6% 5.11
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 19.4% 15.0% 6.69
1. FC Magdeburg to lead by 3 at any time 12.4% 10.5% 9.55
Kaiserslautern to lead by 3 at any time 7.0% 6.6% 15.08
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1. FC Magdeburg most corners 61.6% 60.5% 1.65
Kaiserslautern most corners 28.4% 31.0% 3.23
Corners level 10.0% 10.4% 9.62
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 86.0% 87.4% 84.6% 1.03× 1.14
2-6 goals 77.6% 78.6% 75.5% 1.04× 1.27
1-4 goals 75.5% 78.6% 75.5% 1.04× 1.27
2-5 goals 72.3% 72.4% 70.5% 1.03× 1.38
2-4 goals 61.9% 63.4% 61.5% 1.03× 1.58
1-3 goals 58.4% 59.2% 59.1% 1.00× 1.69
3-6 goals 55.3% 59.2% 54.8% 1.08× 1.69
3-5 goals 50.0% 48.7% 49.8% 0.98× 2.06
2-3 goals 44.8% 43.6% 45.1% 0.97× 2.30
3-4 goals 39.5% 39.2% 40.7% 0.96× 2.55
1-2 goals 36.0% 39.1% 34.9% 1.12× 2.56
4-6 goals 32.9% 35.4% 30.6% 1.16× 2.83
4-5 goals 27.6% 30.2% 25.6% 1.18× 3.31
5-6 goals 15.8% 18.6% 14.2% 1.31× 5.37
7+ goals 3.6% 2.6% 4.2% 0.61× 39.17
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1. FC Magdeburg never behind 44.1% 48.3% 2.07
Kaiserslautern never behind 33.5% 35.7% 2.80
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 49.2% 50.8% 50.5% 1.01× 1.97
Even number of goals 50.8% 49.2% 49.5% 0.99× 2.03
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 54.1% 51.7% 1.93
Odd goals in 1st half 45.9% 48.3% 2.07
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 51.7% 52.1% 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 48.3% 47.9% 2.09
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 goals 94.9% 92.3% 93.6% 0.99× 1.08
Under 5.5 goals 91.1% 92.3% 90.8% 1.02× 1.08
Over 1.5 goals 81.3% 82.4% 79.6% 1.04× 1.21
Under 4.5 goals 80.6% 82.4% 81.7% 1.01× 1.21
Under 3.5 goals 63.5% 61.8% 65.4% 0.94× 1.62
Over 2.5 goals 58.9% 58.8% 58.8% 1.00× 1.70
Under 2.5 goals 41.1% 41.2% 41.2% 1.00× 2.43
Over 3.5 goals 36.5% 38.2% 34.6% 1.10× 2.62
Over 4.5 goals 19.4% 17.6% 18.3% 0.97× 5.67
Under 1.5 goals 18.7% 17.6% 20.4% 0.86× 5.67
Over 5.5 goals 8.9% 7.7% 9.2% 0.84× 12.92
Under 0.5 goals 5.1% 7.7% 6.4% 1.21× 12.93
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 96.2% 97.2% 95.6% 1.02× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 90.0% 92.4% 89.9% 1.03× 1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 76.6% 75.9% 78.2% 0.97× 1.32
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 75.9% 75.9% 74.2% 1.02× 1.32
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 53.0% 51.8% 54.3% 0.95× 1.93
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 47.0% 48.2% 45.7% 1.05× 2.08
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 24.1% 24.1% 25.8% 0.93× 4.15
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 23.4% 24.1% 21.8% 1.10× 4.15
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 10.0% 7.6% 10.1% 0.75× 13.24
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 3.8% 2.8% 4.4% 0.62× 36.11
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 86.3% 88.9% 1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half 71.9% 71.2% 1.41
Under 1.5 in 1st half 63.6% 63.7% 1.57
Over 1.5 in 1st half 36.4% 36.3% 2.75
Under 0.5 in 1st half 28.1% 28.8% 3.47
Over 2.5 in 1st half 13.7% 11.1% 9.04
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 83.1% 82.8% 1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 73.5% 77.7% 1.29
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 53.3% 53.2% 1.88
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 46.7% 46.8% 2.14
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 26.5% 22.3% 4.49
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 16.9% 17.2% 5.83
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kaiserslautern not to score in both halves 76.0% 78.2% 1.28
1. FC Magdeburg not to score in both halves 68.5% 70.5% 1.42
1. FC Magdeburg to score in both halves 31.5% 29.5% 3.39
Kaiserslautern to score in both halves 24.0% 21.8% 4.58
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 61.2% 60.2% 59.6% 1.01× 1.66
Only 1. FC Magdeburg scores 20.0% 16.1% 21.1% 0.76× 6.21
Only Kaiserslautern scores 13.7% 10.9% 13.3% 0.83× 9.14
Neither team scores 5.1% 7.2% 6.4% 1.12× 13.93
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 3 goals 22.4% 22.6% 24.3% 0.93× 4.42
Exactly 2 goals 22.4% 22.6% 20.9% 1.08× 4.42
Exactly 4 goals 17.1% 17.4% 16.5% 1.05× 5.74
Exactly 1 goals 13.7% 12.1% 14.2% 0.85× 8.27
Exactly 5 goals 10.5% 12.1% 9.2% 1.31× 8.28
6 or more goals 8.9% 7.6% 9.2% 0.83× 13.08
Exactly 0 goals 5.1% 7.6% 6.4% 1.19× 13.09
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 53.3% 51.4% 1.95
1 goal in 2nd half 29.7% 29.9% 3.35
No goals in 2nd half 16.9% 17.1% 5.84
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kaiserslautern not to win both halves 92.5% 93.9% 1.06
1. FC Magdeburg not to win both halves 87.1% 87.9% 1.14
1. FC Magdeburg to win both halves 12.9% 12.1% 8.25
Kaiserslautern to win both halves 7.5% 6.1% 16.52
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1. FC Magdeburg to win either half 58.7% 59.5% 1.68
Kaiserslautern to win neither half 52.8% 55.0% 1.82
Kaiserslautern to win either half 47.2% 45.0% 2.22
1. FC Magdeburg to win neither half 41.3% 40.5% 2.47
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kaiserslautern not to win to nil 86.3% 88.2% 86.7% 1.02× 1.13
1. FC Magdeburg not to win to nil 80.0% 83.0% 78.9% 1.05× 1.21
1. FC Magdeburg to win to nil 20.0% 17.0% 21.1% 0.81× 5.88
Kaiserslautern to win to nil 13.7% 11.8% 13.3% 0.89× 8.48
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 24.5% 24.2% 25.9% 0.93× 4.14
1. FC Magdeburg by 1 20.9% 24.1% 20.9% 1.16× 4.14
Kaiserslautern by 1 17.2% 16.9% 18.1% 0.94× 5.91
1. FC Magdeburg by 2 13.4% 11.8% 13.1% 0.90× 8.47
1. FC Magdeburg by 3+ 9.7% 7.3% 9.4% 0.78× 13.77
Kaiserslautern by 2 9.2% 7.3% 7.2% 1.01× 13.77
Kaiserslautern by 3+ 5.1% 7.3% 6.2% 1.16× 13.79
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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