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1. FC Nürnberg v SV Darmstadt 98 — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 7 November 2026 · GER-2. Bundesliga · 2627

GER-2. Bundesliga results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

dc-xg No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.
1. FC Nürnberg win
47.5%
Draw
25.3%
SV Darmstadt 98 win
27.2%

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
dc-xg 1.63–1.17 1-1 12% 53% 56%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1. FC Nürnberg to win 47.5% 47.4% 43.1% 1.10× 2.11
SV Darmstadt 98 to win 27.2% 27.8% 31.2% 0.89× 3.59
Draw 25.3% 27.8% 25.9% 1.07× 3.59
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1. FC Nürnberg & not both score 24.4% 21.9% 21.1% 1.04× 4.58
1. FC Nürnberg & both teams score 23.1% 21.8% 22.2% 0.99× 4.58
Draw & both teams score 18.9% 17.9% 19.7% 0.91× 5.58
SV Darmstadt 98 & both teams score 14.0% 13.3% 18.1% 0.73× 7.54
SV Darmstadt 98 & not both score 13.2% 13.3% 13.3% 1.00× 7.54
Draw & not both score 6.5% 8.4% 6.4% 1.31× 11.94
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1. FC Nürnberg & over 1.5 38.0% 34.8% 34.3% 1.02× 2.87
1. FC Nürnberg & under 3.5 31.3% 30.8% 27.8% 1.11× 3.24
1. FC Nürnberg & over 2.5 30.0% 26.0% 27.8% 0.94× 3.84
SV Darmstadt 98 & over 1.5 20.4% 21.6% 25.9% 0.83× 4.63
Draw & over 1.5 18.9% 18.0% 19.7% 0.91× 5.56
SV Darmstadt 98 & under 3.5 19.4% 18.0% 21.1% 0.85× 5.56
1. FC Nürnberg & under 2.5 17.5% 18.0% 15.4% 1.16× 5.56
Draw & under 2.5 18.5% 18.0% 16.8% 1.07× 5.56
Draw & under 3.5 18.5% 18.0% 16.8% 1.07× 5.56
1. FC Nürnberg & over 3.5 16.2% 18.0% 15.4% 1.16× 5.56
SV Darmstadt 98 & over 2.5 16.2% 18.0% 22.2% 0.81× 5.56
SV Darmstadt 98 & under 2.5 10.9% 12.9% 9.2% 1.40× 7.76
1. FC Nürnberg & under 1.5 9.5% 7.9% 8.9% 0.89× 12.65
SV Darmstadt 98 & over 3.5 7.8% 7.9% 10.3% 0.77× 12.65
Draw & under 1.5 6.5% 7.9% 6.4% 1.24× 12.65
Draw & over 2.5 6.9% 7.9% 9.2% 0.86× 12.65
Draw & over 3.5 6.9% 7.9% 9.2% 0.86× 12.65
SV Darmstadt 98 & under 1.5 6.8% 7.9% 5.5% 1.45× 12.65
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1. FC Nürnberg (1UP) 63.0% 63.2% 1.58
SV Darmstadt 98 (1UP) 45.4% 43.1% 2.32
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1. FC Nürnberg (2UP) 47.5% 49.9% 2.00
SV Darmstadt 98 (2UP) 27.2% 24.8% 4.03
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1. FC Nürnberg to win 2nd half 38.9% 36.0% 2.78
2nd half drawn 34.9% 34.5% 2.90
SV Darmstadt 98 to win 2nd half 26.3% 26.4% 3.79
2nd half away goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Darmstadt 98 under 1.5 in 2nd half 84.3% 84.4% 1.19
SV Darmstadt 98 over 0.5 in 2nd half 50.6% 53.3% 1.88
SV Darmstadt 98 under 0.5 in 2nd half 49.4% 46.7% 2.14
SV Darmstadt 98 over 1.5 in 2nd half 15.7% 15.7% 6.39
2nd half home goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1. FC Nürnberg under 1.5 in 2nd half 76.3% 75.7% 1.32
1. FC Nürnberg over 0.5 in 2nd half 60.4% 62.5% 1.60
1. FC Nürnberg under 0.5 in 2nd half 39.6% 37.5% 2.67
1. FC Nürnberg over 1.5 in 2nd half 23.7% 24.3% 4.11
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Darmstadt 98 (+2.5) 89.5% 88.6% 90.6% 0.98× 1.13
SV Darmstadt 98 (+1.5) 75.0% 73.8% 77.7% 0.95× 1.36
1. FC Nürnberg (+0.5) 72.8% 73.8% 68.8% 1.07× 1.36
SV Darmstadt 98 (+0.5) 52.5% 52.4% 56.9% 0.92× 1.91
1. FC Nürnberg (-0.5) 47.5% 47.6% 43.1% 1.11× 2.10
SV Darmstadt 98 (-0.5) 27.2% 26.2% 31.2% 0.84× 3.81
1. FC Nürnberg (-1.5) 25.0% 26.2% 22.3% 1.18× 3.81
1. FC Nürnberg (-2.5) 10.5% 11.4% 9.4% 1.22× 8.74
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Darmstadt 98 to concede 80.3% 81.3% 80.5% 1.01× 1.23
SV Darmstadt 98 clean sheet 19.7% 18.7% 19.5% 0.96× 5.34
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Darmstadt 98 clean sheet in 1st half 49.7% 50.8% 1.97
SV Darmstadt 98 to concede in 1st half 50.3% 49.2% 2.03
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Darmstadt 98 to concede in 2nd half 60.4% 60.1% 1.67
SV Darmstadt 98 clean sheet in 2nd half 39.6% 39.9% 2.51
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Darmstadt 98 under 6.5 corners 81.7% 81.4% 1.23
SV Darmstadt 98 over 2.5 corners 76.4% 76.0% 1.32
SV Darmstadt 98 under 5.5 corners 70.9% 71.6% 1.40
SV Darmstadt 98 over 3.5 corners 59.8% 57.1% 1.75
SV Darmstadt 98 under 4.5 corners 56.8% 57.1% 1.75
SV Darmstadt 98 over 4.5 corners 43.2% 42.9% 2.33
SV Darmstadt 98 under 3.5 corners 40.2% 42.9% 2.33
SV Darmstadt 98 over 5.5 corners 29.1% 28.4% 3.52
SV Darmstadt 98 under 2.5 corners 23.6% 24.0% 4.16
SV Darmstadt 98 over 6.5 corners 18.3% 18.6% 5.37
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Darmstadt 98 under 3.5 goals 96.8% 97.5% 94.5% 1.03× 1.03
SV Darmstadt 98 under 2.5 goals 88.5% 87.9% 83.6% 1.05× 1.14
SV Darmstadt 98 over 0.5 goals 69.1% 68.0% 72.7% 0.94× 1.47
SV Darmstadt 98 under 1.5 goals 67.2% 68.0% 60.2% 1.13× 1.47
SV Darmstadt 98 over 1.5 goals 32.8% 32.0% 39.8% 0.80× 3.12
SV Darmstadt 98 under 0.5 goals 30.9% 32.0% 27.3% 1.17× 3.13
SV Darmstadt 98 over 2.5 goals 11.5% 12.1% 16.4% 0.74× 8.24
SV Darmstadt 98 over 3.5 goals 3.2% 2.5% 5.5% 0.46× 40.01
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Darmstadt 98 under 1.5 in 1st half 91.9% 94.2% 1.06
SV Darmstadt 98 under 0.5 in 1st half 62.5% 64.1% 1.56
SV Darmstadt 98 over 0.5 in 1st half 37.5% 35.9% 2.79
SV Darmstadt 98 over 1.5 in 1st half 8.1% 5.8% 17.11
Away highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Darmstadt 98 scores equally in both 42.0% 43.8% 2.28
SV Darmstadt 98 scores more in 2nd half 36.5% 36.4% 2.75
SV Darmstadt 98 scores more in 1st half 21.5% 22.4% 4.47
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1. FC Nürnberg (away no bet) 65.2% 66.3% 62.4% 1.06× 1.51
Draw (away no bet) 34.8% 33.7% 37.6% 0.90× 2.97
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Darmstadt 98 even goals 54.8% 52.8% 54.1% 0.98× 1.89
SV Darmstadt 98 odd goals 45.2% 47.2% 45.9% 1.03× 2.12
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 84.2% 83.0% 1.20
Both halves over 1.5 goals 15.8% 17.0% 5.90
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 65.5% 68.4% 1.46
Both halves under 1.5 goals 34.5% 31.6% 3.16
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 57.4% 55.2% 1.81
1. FC Nürnberg to score 2+ in a row 39.9% 36.6% 2.73
SV Darmstadt 98 to score 2+ in a row 24.1% 19.5% 5.12
Either team to score 3+ in a row 20.9% 19.4% 5.14
1. FC Nürnberg to score 3+ in a row 14.9% 12.2% 8.18
SV Darmstadt 98 to score 3+ in a row 6.3% 5.6% 17.83
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1. FC Nürnberg corners (+3.5) 90.3% 89.6% 1.12
1. FC Nürnberg corners (+2.5) 84.8% 79.8% 1.25
1. FC Nürnberg corners (+1.5) 77.5% 74.8% 1.34
SV Darmstadt 98 corners (+3.5) 72.8% 70.7% 1.41
SV Darmstadt 98 corners (+2.5) 63.4% 61.9% 1.62
SV Darmstadt 98 corners (+1.5) 52.9% 52.5% 1.91
1. FC Nürnberg corners (-1.5) 47.1% 47.5% 2.10
1. FC Nürnberg corners (-2.5) 36.6% 38.2% 2.62
1. FC Nürnberg corners (-3.5) 27.2% 29.3% 3.42
SV Darmstadt 98 corners (-1.5) 22.5% 25.2% 3.97
SV Darmstadt 98 corners (-2.5) 15.2% 20.2% 4.95
SV Darmstadt 98 corners (-3.5) 9.7% 10.4% 9.57
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 36.7% 34.0% 2.94
12+ corners 32.8% 33.2% 3.01
9-11 corners 30.5% 33.2% 3.01
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 75.4% 76.5% 1.31
Over 7.5 corners 73.5% 72.6% 1.38
Under 11.5 corners 67.2% 67.7% 1.48
Over 8.5 corners 63.3% 63.3% 1.58
Under 10.5 corners 57.7% 57.9% 1.73
Over 9.5 corners 52.7% 53.2% 1.88
Under 9.5 corners 47.3% 46.8% 2.14
Over 10.5 corners 42.3% 42.1% 2.38
Under 8.5 corners 36.7% 36.7% 2.72
Over 11.5 corners 32.8% 32.3% 3.10
Under 7.5 corners 26.5% 27.4% 3.65
Over 12.5 corners 24.6% 23.5% 4.26
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.8% 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 12.0% 11.4% 10.6% 1.08× 8.74
1-0 9.5% 7.4% 8.9% 0.83× 13.50
2-1 9.4% 7.4% 8.7% 0.85× 13.50
0-1 6.8% 7.4% 5.5% 1.36× 13.50
1-2 6.8% 7.4% 9.0% 0.82× 13.50
2-0 8.0% 7.4% 6.7% 1.10× 13.50
0-0 6.5% 7.4% 6.4% 1.16× 13.50
2-2 5.5% 7.4% 7.2% 1.03× 13.50
3-1 5.1% 7.4% 5.5% 1.36× 13.50
0-2 4.2% 1.7% 3.9% 0.44× 58.30
0-3 1.6% 1.7% 3.1% 0.55× 58.31
0-4 0.5% 1.7% 1.1% 1.57× 58.32
1-3 2.7% 1.7% 2.5% 0.69× 58.30
1-4 0.8% 1.7% 0.9% 1.83× 58.31
2-3 2.2% 1.7% 2.8% 0.61× 58.31
2-4 0.6% 1.7% 0.8% 2.20× 58.32
3-0 4.4% 1.7% 3.9% 0.44× 58.29
3-2 3.0% 1.7% 3.1% 0.55× 58.30
3-3 1.2% 1.7% 2.0% 0.85× 58.31
3-4 0.3% 1.7% 0.9% 1.83× 58.32
4-0 1.8% 1.7% 0.9% 1.83× 58.31
4-1 2.1% 1.7% 2.0% 0.85× 58.31
4-2 1.2% 1.7% 0.8% 2.20× 58.31
4-3 0.5% 1.7% 0.6% 2.75× 58.32
4-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.3% 5.50× 58.32
Any other score 3.2% 1.7% 5.5% 0.31× 58.30
DNB 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1. FC Nürnberg (2nd half DNB) 59.7% 60.8% 1.64
SV Darmstadt 98 (2nd half DNB) 40.3% 39.2% 2.55
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1. FC Nürnberg leading at HT (DNB) 62.7% 65.5% 1.53
SV Darmstadt 98 leading at HT (DNB) 37.3% 34.5% 2.90
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1. FC Nürnberg or SV Darmstadt 98 (12) 74.7% 72.2% 74.1% 0.97× 1.39
1. FC Nürnberg or draw (1X) 72.8% 72.2% 68.8% 1.05× 1.39
SV Darmstadt 98 or draw (X2) 52.5% 52.6% 56.9% 0.92× 1.90
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1. FC Nürnberg or draw at HT 78.5% 80.0% 1.25
SV Darmstadt 98 or draw at HT 63.8% 62.1% 1.61
1. FC Nürnberg or SV Darmstadt 98 at HT 57.7% 57.0% 1.76
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1. FC Nürnberg or draw (1UP) 72.8% 80.2% 1.25
SV Darmstadt 98 or draw (1UP) 52.5% 59.2% 1.69
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1. FC Nürnberg or draw in 2nd half 73.7% 73.6% 1.36
1. FC Nürnberg or SV Darmstadt 98 in 2nd half 65.1% 65.5% 1.53
SV Darmstadt 98 or draw in 2nd half 61.1% 64.0% 1.56
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 62.0% 61.6% 1.62
Neither half drawn 38.0% 38.4% 2.61
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1. FC Nürnberg (DNB) 63.6% 62.9% 58.0% 1.08× 1.59
SV Darmstadt 98 (DNB) 36.4% 37.1% 42.0% 0.88× 2.69
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1. FC Nürnberg to score first 54.3% 53.9% 1.85
SV Darmstadt 98 to score first 39.2% 32.9% 3.04
No goal scored 6.5% 7.5% 13.39
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 55.9% 54.9% 59.6% 0.92× 1.82
Not both teams to score 44.1% 45.1% 40.4% 1.12× 2.22
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 43.9% 41.7% 49.1% 0.85× 2.40
Not both score & under 2.5 35.0% 34.4% 30.7% 1.12× 2.91
Both score & under 2.5 12.0% 12.3% 10.6% 1.16× 8.11
Not both score & over 2.5 9.2% 8.3% 9.8% 0.85× 11.99
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 84.1% 82.9% 80.5% 1.03× 1.21
Both teams to score 2+ 15.9% 17.1% 19.5% 0.88× 5.84
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 69.3% 67.7% 1.48
Both teams to score in 2nd half 30.7% 32.3% 3.09
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 56.2% 59.3% 1.69
Both score 2nd half only 24.9% 20.9% 4.78
Both score 1st half only 13.2% 10.7% 9.31
Both score in both halves 5.8% 6.7% 14.86
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 81.1% 82.4% 1.21
Both teams to score by HT 18.9% 17.6% 5.68
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 55.6% 57.2% 1.75
A half without a goal 44.4% 42.8% 2.34
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 46.5% 47.3% 45.1% 1.05× 2.12
4-6 goals 28.4% 26.6% 30.6% 0.87× 3.76
0-1 goals 22.7% 22.8% 20.4% 1.12× 4.38
7+ goals 2.4% 1.8% 4.2% 0.43× 54.64
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Darmstadt 98 to score exactly 1 36.3% 36.0% 33.1% 1.09× 2.78
SV Darmstadt 98 to score exactly 0 30.9% 33.7% 27.3% 1.24× 2.96
SV Darmstadt 98 to score exactly 2 21.3% 22.4% 23.6% 0.95× 4.47
SV Darmstadt 98 to score 3+ 11.5% 12.8% 16.4% 0.78× 7.79
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1. FC Nürnberg to score exactly 1 32.0% 32.6% 31.8% 1.02× 3.07
1. FC Nürnberg to score exactly 2 26.0% 26.5% 26.4% 1.00× 3.78
1. FC Nürnberg to score 3+ 22.3% 23.2% 22.6% 1.03× 4.31
1. FC Nürnberg to score exactly 0 19.7% 18.9% 19.5% 0.97× 5.29
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 42.3% 43.0% 2.32
1. FC Nürnberg leading at HT 36.2% 37.9% 2.64
SV Darmstadt 98 leading at HT 21.5% 20.0% 5.01
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1. FC Nürnberg -1: 2 52.5% 52.1% 1.92
1. FC Nürnberg -1: 1 25.0% 26.5% 3.77
1. FC Nürnberg -1: X 22.5% 23.6% 4.24
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Darmstadt 98 (0:1) 52.5% 51.2% 56.9% 0.90× 1.95
1. FC Nürnberg (0:1) 25.0% 27.0% 22.3% 1.21× 3.70
Draw (0:1) 22.5% 24.3% 20.9% 1.16× 4.12
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Darmstadt 98 (0:2) 75.0% 75.8% 77.7% 0.98× 1.32
Draw (0:2) 14.5% 10.9% 13.1% 0.83× 9.15
1. FC Nürnberg (0:2) 10.5% 10.9% 9.4% 1.16× 9.17
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Darmstadt 98 (0:3) 89.5% 90.9% 90.6% 1.00× 1.10
Draw (0:3) 6.9% 5.8% 5.9% 0.98× 17.29
1. FC Nürnberg (0:3) 3.6% 2.4% 3.6% 0.66× 42.07
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Darmstadt 98 (0:4) 96.4% 98.1% 96.4% 1.02× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 2.6% 1.2% 2.0% 0.59× 83.45
1. FC Nürnberg (0:4) 1.0% 1.2% 1.7% 0.70× 83.63
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1. FC Nürnberg (1:0) 72.8% 72.6% 68.8% 1.05× 1.38
Draw (1:0) 16.1% 17.0% 18.1% 0.94× 5.89
SV Darmstadt 98 (1:0) 11.1% 12.8% 13.3% 0.96× 7.84
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1. FC Nürnberg (2:0) 88.9% 88.4% 86.7% 1.02× 1.13
Draw (2:0) 7.6% 6.5% 7.2% 0.90× 15.50
SV Darmstadt 98 (2:0) 3.5% 2.3% 6.2% 0.37× 43.63
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 47.8% 48.2% 2.07
1st half highest scoring 27.1% 26.5% 3.77
Halves equal 25.1% 26.5% 3.78
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1. FC Nürnberg to concede 69.1% 66.6% 72.7% 0.92× 1.50
1. FC Nürnberg clean sheet 30.9% 33.4% 27.3% 1.22× 2.99
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1. FC Nürnberg clean sheet in 1st half 62.5% 64.1% 1.56
1. FC Nürnberg to concede in 1st half 37.5% 35.9% 2.79
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1. FC Nürnberg to concede in 2nd half 50.6% 53.3% 1.88
1. FC Nürnberg clean sheet in 2nd half 49.4% 46.7% 2.14
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1. FC Nürnberg over 2.5 corners 87.5% 86.3% 1.16
1. FC Nürnberg over 3.5 corners 76.0% 76.6% 1.31
1. FC Nürnberg under 6.5 corners 64.9% 62.3% 1.61
1. FC Nürnberg over 4.5 corners 62.1% 62.2% 1.61
1. FC Nürnberg under 5.5 corners 52.0% 52.6% 1.90
1. FC Nürnberg over 5.5 corners 48.0% 47.4% 2.11
1. FC Nürnberg under 4.5 corners 37.9% 37.8% 2.65
1. FC Nürnberg over 6.5 corners 35.1% 37.7% 2.65
1. FC Nürnberg under 3.5 corners 24.0% 23.4% 4.27
1. FC Nürnberg under 2.5 corners 12.5% 13.7% 7.31
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1. FC Nürnberg under 3.5 goals 91.8% 92.2% 92.4% 1.00× 1.08
1. FC Nürnberg over 0.5 goals 80.3% 82.1% 80.5% 1.02× 1.22
1. FC Nürnberg under 2.5 goals 77.7% 77.7% 77.4% 1.00× 1.29
1. FC Nürnberg under 1.5 goals 51.7% 53.2% 51.2% 1.04× 1.88
1. FC Nürnberg over 1.5 goals 48.3% 46.8% 48.8% 0.96× 2.14
1. FC Nürnberg over 2.5 goals 22.3% 22.3% 22.6% 0.98× 4.49
1. FC Nürnberg under 0.5 goals 19.7% 17.9% 19.5% 0.92× 5.58
1. FC Nürnberg over 3.5 goals 8.2% 7.8% 7.6% 1.02× 12.87
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1. FC Nürnberg under 1.5 in 1st half 84.4% 84.4% 1.19
1. FC Nürnberg under 0.5 in 1st half 49.7% 51.0% 1.96
1. FC Nürnberg over 0.5 in 1st half 50.3% 49.0% 2.04
1. FC Nürnberg over 1.5 in 1st half 15.6% 15.6% 6.39
Home highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1. FC Nürnberg scores more in 2nd half 39.1% 37.7% 2.65
1. FC Nürnberg scores equally in both 34.6% 32.9% 3.04
1. FC Nürnberg scores more in 1st half 26.2% 28.0% 3.57
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Darmstadt 98 (home no bet) 51.8% 51.5% 54.6% 0.94× 1.94
Draw (home no bet) 48.2% 48.5% 45.4% 1.07× 2.06
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1. FC Nürnberg even goals 51.9% 50.6% 50.9% 1.00× 1.98
1. FC Nürnberg odd goals 48.1% 49.4% 49.1% 1.00× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 31.1% 32.2% 3.11
HT 1-0 21.7% 24.2% 4.14
HT 0-1 14.5% 10.9% 9.13
HT 1-1 10.3% 10.9% 9.18
HT 2-0 7.6% 7.1% 14.02
Any other HT score 4.6% 2.3% 43.37
HT 2-1 3.6% 2.3% 43.44
HT 0-2 3.4% 2.3% 43.45
HT 1-2 2.4% 2.3% 43.53
HT 2-2 0.8% 2.3% 43.64
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1. FC Nürnberg at HT / 1. FC Nürnberg at FT 28.7% 27.1% 3.70
Draw at HT / 1. FC Nürnberg at FT 16.2% 16.7% 5.97
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 15.2% 16.7% 5.98
SV Darmstadt 98 at HT / SV Darmstadt 98 at FT 14.2% 12.7% 7.89
Draw at HT / SV Darmstadt 98 at FT 10.9% 12.6% 7.91
1. FC Nürnberg at HT / Draw at FT 5.4% 6.0% 16.72
SV Darmstadt 98 at HT / Draw at FT 4.7% 3.5% 28.74
SV Darmstadt 98 at HT / 1. FC Nürnberg at FT 2.6% 3.5% 28.82
1. FC Nürnberg at HT / SV Darmstadt 98 at FT 2.1% 3.5% 28.84
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1. FC Nürnberg to score last 54.3% 52.1% 1.92
SV Darmstadt 98 to score last 39.2% 38.6% 2.59
No goal scored 6.5% 7.5% 13.39
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 93.5% 92.6% 1.08
1. FC Nürnberg to lead by 1 at any time 63.0% 61.4% 1.63
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 48.0% 44.0% 2.27
SV Darmstadt 98 to lead by 1 at any time 45.4% 43.9% 2.28
1. FC Nürnberg to lead by 2 at any time 31.7% 29.3% 3.41
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 17.7% 14.9% 6.72
SV Darmstadt 98 to lead by 2 at any time 16.5% 14.9% 6.73
1. FC Nürnberg to lead by 3 at any time 12.8% 10.5% 9.55
SV Darmstadt 98 to lead by 3 at any time 4.8% 1.7% 59.67
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1. FC Nürnberg most corners 58.0% 55.6% 1.80
SV Darmstadt 98 most corners 31.6% 34.3% 2.91
Corners level 10.4% 10.4% 9.60
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 87.0% 87.4% 84.6% 1.03× 1.15
1-4 goals 78.3% 78.6% 75.5% 1.04× 1.27
2-6 goals 74.8% 72.4% 75.5% 0.96× 1.38
2-5 goals 70.8% 72.4% 70.5% 1.03× 1.38
1-3 goals 62.7% 63.4% 59.1% 1.07× 1.58
2-4 goals 62.1% 63.4% 61.5% 1.03× 1.58
3-6 goals 50.6% 53.1% 54.8% 0.97× 1.88
2-3 goals 46.5% 48.6% 45.1% 1.08× 2.06
3-5 goals 46.5% 48.6% 49.8% 0.98× 2.06
1-2 goals 40.5% 43.6% 34.9% 1.25× 2.30
3-4 goals 37.8% 39.2% 40.7% 0.96× 2.55
4-6 goals 28.4% 30.3% 30.6% 0.99× 3.30
4-5 goals 24.3% 24.5% 25.6% 0.96× 4.08
5-6 goals 12.8% 14.9% 14.2% 1.05× 6.73
7+ goals 2.4% 2.6% 4.2% 0.61× 39.13
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1. FC Nürnberg never behind 48.1% 56.7% 1.77
SV Darmstadt 98 never behind 30.5% 35.5% 2.82
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 49.0% 50.8% 50.5% 1.01× 1.97
Even number of goals 51.0% 49.2% 49.5% 0.99× 2.04
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 55.0% 51.7% 1.93
Odd goals in 1st half 45.0% 48.3% 2.07
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 52.2% 52.0% 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 47.8% 48.0% 2.08
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 goals 93.5% 92.2% 93.6% 0.99× 1.08
Under 5.5 goals 93.5% 92.2% 90.8% 1.02× 1.08
Under 4.5 goals 84.8% 82.3% 81.7% 1.01× 1.22
Over 1.5 goals 77.3% 77.4% 79.6% 0.97× 1.29
Under 3.5 goals 69.2% 66.3% 65.4% 1.01× 1.51
Over 2.5 goals 53.1% 52.6% 58.8% 0.89× 1.90
Under 2.5 goals 46.9% 47.4% 41.2% 1.15× 2.11
Over 3.5 goals 30.8% 33.7% 34.6% 0.97× 2.96
Under 1.5 goals 22.7% 22.6% 20.4% 1.11× 4.42
Over 4.5 goals 15.2% 17.7% 18.3% 0.97× 5.66
Under 0.5 goals 6.5% 7.8% 6.4% 1.21× 12.88
Over 5.5 goals 6.5% 7.8% 9.2% 0.84× 12.88
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 97.5% 97.2% 95.6% 1.02× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 92.9% 92.4% 89.9% 1.03× 1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 82.0% 81.0% 78.2% 1.04× 1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 70.0% 72.5% 74.2% 0.98× 1.38
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 60.4% 61.9% 54.3% 1.14× 1.62
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 39.6% 38.1% 45.7% 0.83× 2.62
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 30.0% 27.5% 25.8% 1.07× 3.63
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 18.0% 19.0% 21.8% 0.87× 5.27
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 7.1% 7.6% 10.1% 0.75× 13.16
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 2.5% 2.8% 4.4% 0.63× 35.85
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 88.6% 89.0% 1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half 68.9% 69.1% 1.45
Under 1.5 in 1st half 67.3% 69.0% 1.45
Over 1.5 in 1st half 32.7% 31.0% 3.23
Under 0.5 in 1st half 31.1% 30.9% 3.24
Over 2.5 in 1st half 11.4% 11.0% 9.12
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 80.3% 82.7% 1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 77.5% 79.7% 1.25
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 51.4% 53.3% 1.88
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 48.6% 46.7% 2.14
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 22.5% 20.3% 4.94
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 19.7% 17.3% 5.78
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Darmstadt 98 not to score in both halves 81.1% 84.3% 1.19
1. FC Nürnberg not to score in both halves 69.6% 70.6% 1.42
1. FC Nürnberg to score in both halves 30.4% 29.4% 3.40
SV Darmstadt 98 to score in both halves 18.9% 15.7% 6.37
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 55.9% 58.4% 59.6% 0.98× 1.71
Only 1. FC Nürnberg scores 24.4% 22.3% 21.1% 1.06× 4.49
Only SV Darmstadt 98 scores 13.2% 11.0% 13.3% 0.83× 9.10
Neither team scores 6.5% 7.2% 6.4% 1.12× 13.92
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 24.2% 22.6% 20.9% 1.08× 4.43
Exactly 3 goals 22.3% 22.6% 24.3% 0.93× 4.43
Exactly 1 goals 16.3% 17.4% 14.2% 1.23× 5.73
Exactly 4 goals 15.6% 17.4% 16.5% 1.05× 5.73
Exactly 5 goals 8.7% 7.6% 9.2% 0.83× 13.08
Exactly 0 goals 6.5% 7.6% 6.4% 1.19× 13.09
6 or more goals 6.5% 7.6% 9.2% 0.83× 13.09
Total goals 1st half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1 goal in 1st half 36.2% 37.1% 2.70
No goals in 1st half 31.1% 35.8% 2.79
2 goals in 1st half 21.3% 21.7% 4.61
3+ goals in 1st half 11.4% 10.9% 9.21
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 48.6% 44.9% 2.23
1 goal in 2nd half 31.7% 33.3% 3.00
No goals in 2nd half 19.7% 17.3% 5.78
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Darmstadt 98 not to win both halves 94.3% 94.0% 1.06
1. FC Nürnberg not to win both halves 85.9% 87.9% 1.14
1. FC Nürnberg to win both halves 14.1% 12.1% 8.24
SV Darmstadt 98 to win both halves 5.7% 6.0% 16.72
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1. FC Nürnberg to win either half 60.9% 65.0% 1.54
SV Darmstadt 98 to win neither half 57.9% 59.5% 1.68
SV Darmstadt 98 to win either half 42.1% 40.5% 2.47
1. FC Nürnberg to win neither half 39.1% 35.0% 2.85
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Darmstadt 98 not to win to nil 86.8% 88.1% 86.7% 1.02× 1.13
1. FC Nürnberg not to win to nil 75.6% 78.1% 78.9% 0.99× 1.28
1. FC Nürnberg to win to nil 24.4% 21.9% 21.1% 1.04× 4.56
SV Darmstadt 98 to win to nil 13.2% 11.9% 13.3% 0.89× 8.44
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 25.3% 27.8% 25.9% 1.08× 3.59
1. FC Nürnberg by 1 22.5% 24.2% 20.9% 1.16× 4.14
SV Darmstadt 98 by 1 16.1% 16.9% 18.1% 0.94× 5.91
1. FC Nürnberg by 2 14.5% 11.8% 13.1% 0.90× 8.49
1. FC Nürnberg by 3+ 10.5% 11.8% 9.4% 1.26× 8.50
SV Darmstadt 98 by 2 7.6% 7.2% 7.2% 1.01× 13.81
SV Darmstadt 98 by 3+ 3.5% 2.7% 6.2% 0.44× 36.65
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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