1. FC Nürnberg v VfL Wolfsburg — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 10 October 2026 · GER-2. Bundesliga · 2627
GER-2. Bundesliga
results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyRaw model output; no calibration record for this fixture's bands yet.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 11.5%
- 1-2 8.6%
- 2-1 8.2%
- 0-1 7.2%
- 1-0 6.9%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 58.0% | Under 2.5 | 42.0% |
| BTTS yes | 60.9% | BTTS no | 39.1% |
| 1. FC Nürnberg 1+ | 77.2% | 1. FC Nürnberg 2+ | 43.5% |
| VfL Wolfsburg 1+ | 78.5% | VfL Wolfsburg 2+ | 45.4% |
Expected goals 1.48 – 1.54. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Form is good: 2.33 points a match from the last five.
Risk factors
- Data quality is 35/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
- The model's measured edge in this competition is 0.0041 nats, which is not meaningfully better than the base rates.
- VfL Wolfsburg have only 3 matches on record.
Why the model thinks this
The price
VfL Wolfsburg have an estimated 38.7% win probability, against 36.3% for 1. FC Nürnberg and 25.0% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.48 for 1. FC Nürnberg and 1.53 for VfL Wolfsburg.
Why 1. FC Nürnberg
1. FC Nürnberg carry the stronger rating, 1576 Elo against 1547. Form is good: 2.60 points a match from the last five.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 25.0%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.48 to 1.53. Draws run at 26% in this competition.
Why VfL Wolfsburg can win
Form is good: 2.33 points a match from the last five.
Key players
No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.
Availability
No lineup on record for 1. FC Nürnberg, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for VfL Wolfsburg, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
1. FC Nürnberg: 53% possession, 15.4 shots a match, 17.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. VfL Wolfsburg: 57% possession, 21.3 shots a match, 13.3 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 22:20 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·
VfL Wolfsburg are the model's most likely outcome at 38.7%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.5%. Confidence 16/100, data quality 35/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg | 1.17–1.55 | 1-1 12% | 51% | 55% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.