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Aberdeen v Celtic — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 19 December 2026 · SCO-Premiership · 2627

SCO-Premiership results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Aberdeen win
9.6%
model 10.0%
Draw
17.2%
model 15.4%
Celtic win
73.2%
model 74.6%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (94 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 0-2 11.3%
  2. 0-3 9.5%
  3. 1-2 9.2%
  4. 0-1 9.0%
  5. 1-3 7.8%

Goals

Over 2.564.9% Under 2.535.1%
BTTS yes51.2% BTTS no48.8%
Aberdeen 1+55.8% Aberdeen 2+19.7%
Celtic 1+92.0% Celtic 2+71.8%

Expected goals 0.82 – 2.52. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
76/100
Data quality
65/100
Model agreement
95%
★ Best pick
Celtic (-0.5)
Asian handicap · usually 31%
73.3% fair odds 1.37
strong signal · 1214 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Aberdeen not to score in both halves
Score both halves
84.4% fair odds 1.19
moderate signal · 829 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Celtic carry the stronger rating, 1772 Elo against 1399.
  • Form is good: 3.00 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Celtic have an estimated 73.2% win probability, against 17.2% for the draw and 9.6% for Aberdeen. Expected goals from the ensemble are 0.82 for Aberdeen and 2.52 for Celtic.

Why Aberdeen

Nothing in the data singles out Aberdeen.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 17.2%. Draws run at 23% in this competition.

Why Celtic can win

Celtic carry the stronger rating, 1772 Elo against 1399. Form is good: 3.00 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Aberdeen, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Celtic, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Aberdeen: 45% possession, 9.6 shots a match, 18.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Celtic: 62% possession, 22.4 shots a match, 8.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-27 10:01 · team_stats 2026-10-27 06:03 · availability 2026-10-27 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Celtic are the model's most likely outcome at 73.2%. The likeliest scoreline is 0-2 at 11.3%. Confidence 76/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 0.82–2.52 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 0.81–2.21 0-2 12% 58% 49%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic to win 69.4% 64.9% 31.0% 2.09× 1.54
Draw 18.2% 19.4% 23.3% 0.83× 5.16
Aberdeen to win 12.4% 13.4% 45.9% 0.29× 7.44
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic & not both score 39.8% 33.4% 14.9% 2.24× 3.00
Celtic & both teams score 29.6% 25.2% 16.3% 1.54× 3.97
Draw & both teams score 13.4% 13.3% 17.8% 0.75× 7.54
Aberdeen & both teams score 6.2% 8.3% 18.6% 0.45× 12.01
Aberdeen & not both score 6.2% 8.3% 27.5% 0.30× 12.01
Draw & not both score 4.8% 4.9% 5.8% 0.84× 20.48
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic & over 1.5 58.5% 54.9% 24.4% 2.25× 1.82
Celtic & over 2.5 46.5% 45.0% 20.5% 2.20× 2.22
Celtic & under 3.5 41.4% 40.3% 22.5% 1.79× 2.48
Celtic & over 3.5 28.0% 26.1% 8.7% 3.00× 3.84
Celtic & under 2.5 22.9% 21.6% 10.7% 2.01× 4.63
Draw & over 1.5 13.4% 12.8% 17.8% 0.72× 7.79
Draw & under 2.5 13.4% 12.8% 14.9% 0.86× 7.79
Draw & under 3.5 13.4% 12.8% 14.9% 0.86× 7.79
Celtic & under 1.5 10.9% 12.8% 6.8% 1.88× 7.79
Aberdeen & under 3.5 9.6% 7.9% 30.2% 0.26× 12.63
Aberdeen & over 1.5 8.3% 7.9% 36.6% 0.22× 12.63
Aberdeen & over 2.5 6.7% 7.9% 28.1% 0.28× 12.63
Aberdeen & under 2.5 5.7% 7.9% 18.0% 0.44× 12.63
Draw & under 1.5 4.8% 4.8% 5.8% 0.83× 20.81
Draw & over 2.5 4.8% 4.8% 8.7% 0.55× 20.81
Draw & over 3.5 4.8% 4.8% 8.7% 0.55× 20.81
Aberdeen & under 1.5 4.1% 4.8% 9.5% 0.51× 20.82
Aberdeen & over 3.5 2.8% 4.8% 15.9% 0.30× 20.82
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic (1UP) 79.2% 78.7% — — 1.27
Aberdeen (1UP) 29.0% 27.0% — — 3.71
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic (2UP) 69.4% 68.4% — — 1.46
Aberdeen (2UP) 12.4% 13.8% — — 7.22
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic to win 2nd half 58.5% 61.7% — — 1.62
2nd half drawn 28.6% 26.1% — — 3.83
Aberdeen to win 2nd half 12.9% 11.2% — — 8.95
2nd half away goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic over 0.5 in 2nd half 73.4% 75.6% — — 1.32
Celtic under 1.5 in 2nd half 61.8% 60.3% — — 1.66
Celtic over 1.5 in 2nd half 38.2% 39.7% — — 2.52
Celtic under 0.5 in 2nd half 26.6% 24.4% — — 4.10
2nd half home goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen under 1.5 in 2nd half 92.2% 94.2% — — 1.06
Aberdeen under 0.5 in 2nd half 63.1% 63.2% — — 1.58
Aberdeen over 0.5 in 2nd half 36.9% 36.8% — — 2.72
Aberdeen over 1.5 in 2nd half 7.8% 5.8% — — 17.10
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic (+2.5) 99.2% 96.3% 87.8% 1.10× 1.04
Celtic (+1.5) 96.4% 96.3% 73.6% 1.31× 1.04
Celtic (+0.5) 87.6% 88.5% 54.1% 1.63× 1.13
Celtic (-0.5) 69.4% 68.7% 31.0% 2.22× 1.46
Aberdeen (+0.5) 30.6% 31.3% 69.0% 0.45× 3.19
Aberdeen (-0.5) 12.4% 11.5% 45.9% 0.25× 8.67
Aberdeen (-1.5) 3.6% 3.7% 26.4% 0.14× 27.11
Aberdeen (-2.5) 0.8% 3.7% 12.2% 0.30× 27.29
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic to concede 55.4% 62.3% 79.5% 0.78× 1.61
Celtic clean sheet 44.6% 37.7% 20.5% 1.84× 2.65
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic clean sheet in 1st half 70.7% 75.4% — — 1.33
Celtic to concede in 1st half 29.3% 24.6% — — 4.06
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic clean sheet in 2nd half 63.1% 61.8% — — 1.62
Celtic to concede in 2nd half 36.9% 38.2% — — 2.62
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic over 2.5 corners 93.2% 89.9% — — 1.11
Celtic over 3.5 corners 85.4% 85.2% — — 1.17
Celtic over 4.5 corners 74.7% 71.6% — — 1.40
Celtic over 5.5 corners 62.3% 61.7% — — 1.62
Celtic under 6.5 corners 50.6% 53.1% — — 1.88
Celtic over 6.5 corners 49.4% 46.9% — — 2.13
Celtic under 5.5 corners 37.7% 38.3% — — 2.61
Celtic under 4.5 corners 25.3% 28.4% — — 3.53
Celtic under 3.5 corners 14.6% 14.8% — — 6.77
Celtic under 2.5 corners 6.8% 10.1% — — 9.91
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic over 0.5 goals 89.0% 87.8% 66.9% 1.31× 1.14
Celtic under 3.5 goals 81.8% 81.5% 96.3% 0.85× 1.23
Celtic over 1.5 goals 64.7% 63.2% 36.8% 1.72× 1.58
Celtic under 2.5 goals 62.1% 63.2% 85.5% 0.74× 1.58
Celtic over 2.5 goals 37.9% 36.8% 14.5% 2.55× 2.72
Celtic under 1.5 goals 35.3% 36.8% 63.2% 0.58× 2.72
Celtic over 3.5 goals 18.2% 18.5% 3.7% 4.97× 5.41
Celtic under 0.5 goals 11.0% 12.2% 33.1% 0.37× 8.21
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic under 1.5 in 1st half 77.9% 75.2% — — 1.33
Celtic over 0.5 in 1st half 58.7% 62.4% — — 1.60
Celtic under 0.5 in 1st half 41.3% 37.6% — — 2.66
Celtic over 1.5 in 1st half 22.1% 24.8% — — 4.03
Away highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic scores more in 2nd half 46.9% 48.2% — — 2.08
Celtic scores equally in both 28.2% 26.5% — — 3.77
Celtic scores more in 1st half 24.9% 21.8% — — 4.58
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw (away no bet) 59.5% 57.4% 33.7% 1.70× 1.74
Aberdeen (away no bet) 40.5% 42.6% 66.3% 0.64× 2.35
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic even goals 50.6% 52.6% 57.6% 0.91× 1.90
Celtic odd goals 49.4% 47.4% 42.4% 1.12× 2.11
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 81.5% 83.1% — — 1.20
Both halves over 1.5 goals 18.5% 16.9% — — 5.92
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 69.5% 68.0% — — 1.47
Both halves under 1.5 goals 30.5% 32.0% — — 3.12
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 65.4% 62.3% — — 1.60
Celtic to score 2+ in a row 58.2% 55.0% — — 1.82
Either team to score 3+ in a row 31.5% 28.9% — — 3.47
Celtic to score 3+ in a row 29.7% 25.0% — — 4.00
Aberdeen to score 2+ in a row 12.2% 12.1% — — 8.23
Aberdeen to score 3+ in a row 2.1% 2.5% — — 39.69
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic corners (+3.5) 93.2% 89.6% — — 1.12
Celtic corners (+2.5) 89.1% 84.5% — — 1.18
Celtic corners (+1.5) 83.4% 79.8% — — 1.25
Aberdeen corners (+3.5) 62.9% 61.9% — — 1.62
Celtic corners (-1.5) 57.2% 57.2% — — 1.75
Aberdeen corners (+2.5) 53.0% 52.4% — — 1.91
Celtic corners (-2.5) 47.0% 47.6% — — 2.10
Aberdeen corners (+1.5) 42.8% 42.8% — — 2.33
Celtic corners (-3.5) 37.1% 38.1% — — 2.62
Aberdeen corners (-1.5) 16.6% 20.2% — — 4.95
Aberdeen corners (-2.5) 10.9% 15.5% — — 6.45
Aberdeen corners (-3.5) 6.8% 10.4% — — 9.60
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
12+ corners 44.7% 38.3% — — 2.61
9-11 corners 29.4% 31.2% — — 3.20
0-8 corners 25.9% 31.2% — — 3.21
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 7.5 corners 82.4% 80.7% — — 1.24
Over 8.5 corners 74.1% 72.5% — — 1.38
Over 9.5 corners 64.7% 63.3% — — 1.58
Under 12.5 corners 64.5% 63.3% — — 1.58
Under 11.5 corners 55.3% 57.9% — — 1.73
Over 10.5 corners 54.6% 53.2% — — 1.88
Under 10.5 corners 45.4% 46.8% — — 2.14
Over 11.5 corners 44.7% 42.1% — — 2.37
Under 9.5 corners 35.3% 36.7% — — 2.72
Over 12.5 corners 35.5% 36.7% — — 2.72
Under 8.5 corners 25.9% 27.5% — — 3.64
Under 7.5 corners 17.6% 19.3% — — 5.17
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% — — 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.8% — — 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-2 12.0% 11.5% 4.1% 2.78× 8.71
0-1 10.9% 11.5% 6.8% 1.68× 8.72
0-3 8.8% 7.4% 3.3% 2.24× 13.51
1-1 8.6% 7.4% 9.3% 0.80× 13.51
1-2 9.7% 7.4% 8.9% 0.83× 13.51
1-3 7.1% 7.4% 3.1% 2.39× 13.51
Any other score 7.4% 7.4% 4.1% 1.79× 13.51
0-0 4.8% 1.7% 5.8% 0.30× 58.29
0-4 4.9% 1.7% 0.4% 4.15× 58.29
1-0 4.1% 1.7% 9.5% 0.18× 58.30
1-4 3.9% 1.7% 0.8% 2.08× 58.30
2-0 1.6% 1.7% 8.7% 0.20× 58.31
2-1 3.5% 1.7% 7.0% 0.24× 58.30
2-2 3.9% 1.7% 6.6% 0.26× 58.30
2-3 2.9% 1.7% 2.3% 0.75× 58.30
2-4 1.6% 1.7% 0.8% 2.08× 58.31
3-0 0.4% 1.7% 5.6% 0.31× 58.32
3-1 0.9% 1.7% 5.6% 0.31× 58.31
3-2 1.0% 1.7% 2.9% 0.59× 58.31
3-3 0.8% 1.7% 2.3% 0.75× 58.31
3-4 0.4% 1.7% 0.4% 4.15× 58.32
4-0 0.1% 1.7% 3.5% 0.49× 58.32
4-1 0.2% 1.7% 1.4% 1.19× 58.32
4-2 0.2% 1.7% 0.6% 2.77× 58.32
4-3 0.2% 1.7% 0.8% 2.07× 58.32
4-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.2% 8.30× 58.32
DNB 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic (2nd half DNB) 81.9% 82.1% — — 1.22
Aberdeen (2nd half DNB) 18.1% 17.9% — — 5.59
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic leading at HT (DNB) 77.1% 75.2% — — 1.33
Aberdeen leading at HT (DNB) 22.9% 24.8% — — 4.03
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic or draw (X2) 87.6% 86.6% 54.1% 1.60× 1.16
Aberdeen or Celtic (12) 81.8% 80.6% 76.7% 1.05× 1.24
Aberdeen or draw (1X) 30.6% 35.1% 69.0% 0.51× 2.85
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic or draw at HT 86.0% 88.1% — — 1.14
Aberdeen or Celtic at HT 61.1% 60.9% — — 1.64
Aberdeen or draw at HT 52.8% 48.6% — — 2.06
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic or draw (1UP) 87.6% 92.1% — — 1.09
Aberdeen or draw (1UP) 30.6% 38.9% — — 2.57
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic or draw in 2nd half 87.1% 88.8% — — 1.13
Aberdeen or Celtic in 2nd half 71.4% 73.9% — — 1.35
Aberdeen or draw in 2nd half 41.5% 38.3% — — 2.61
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 56.5% 58.8% — — 1.70
Neither half drawn 43.5% 41.2% — — 2.43
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic (DNB) 84.8% 80.5% 40.3% 2.00× 1.24
Aberdeen (DNB) 15.2% 19.5% 59.7% 0.33× 5.13
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic to score first 69.7% 69.5% — — 1.44
Aberdeen to score first 25.5% 27.6% — — 3.62
No goal scored 4.8% 4.4% — — 22.70
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 50.8% 51.3% 47.7% 1.07× 1.95
Both teams to score 49.2% 48.7% 52.3% 0.93× 2.05
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 40.5% 41.6% 43.2% 0.96× 2.41
Not both score & under 2.5 33.4% 34.6% 34.1% 1.01× 2.89
Not both score & over 2.5 17.4% 21.5% 13.8% 1.55× 4.65
Both score & under 2.5 8.6% 8.3% 9.3% 0.89× 12.06
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 87.5% 85.6% 83.9% 1.02× 1.17
Both teams to score 2+ 12.5% 14.4% 16.1% 0.89× 6.95
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 73.0% 73.7% — — 1.36
Both teams to score in 2nd half 27.0% 26.3% — — 3.80
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 60.4% 65.7% — — 1.52
Both score 2nd half only 22.4% 21.2% — — 4.71
Both score 1st half only 12.5% 10.7% — — 9.32
Both score in both halves 4.7% 5.0% — — 20.20
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 82.8% 83.5% — — 1.20
Both teams to score by HT 17.2% 16.5% — — 6.05
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 58.8% 57.1% — — 1.75
A half without a goal 41.2% 42.9% — — 2.33
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 44.6% 42.2% 45.7% 0.92× 2.37
4-6 goals 32.2% 30.7% 31.2% 0.99× 3.25
0-1 goals 19.8% 20.3% 21.7% 0.93× 4.94
7+ goals 3.4% 1.8% 1.9% 0.99× 54.22
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic to score 3+ 37.9% 35.9% 14.5% 2.48× 2.78
Celtic to score exactly 2 26.8% 27.4% 22.5% 1.22× 3.64
Celtic to score exactly 1 24.3% 22.3% 30.4% 0.73× 4.49
Celtic to score exactly 0 11.0% 12.9% 33.1% 0.39× 7.77
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen to score exactly 1 36.0% 35.5% 31.2% 1.14× 2.81
Aberdeen to score exactly 0 44.6% 35.2% 20.5% 1.72× 2.84
Aberdeen to score exactly 2 14.5% 14.3% 25.0% 0.57× 6.99
Aberdeen to score 3+ 4.8% 6.2% 23.8% 0.26× 16.08
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic leading at HT 47.2% 51.4% — — 1.94
Draw at HT 38.9% 39.1% — — 2.56
Aberdeen leading at HT 14.0% 11.9% — — 8.42
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic -1: 2 45.5% 46.8% — — 2.14
Celtic -1: 1 30.6% 30.0% — — 3.33
Celtic -1: X 23.9% 23.5% — — 4.25
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic (0:1) 87.6% 89.4% 54.1% 1.65× 1.12
Draw (0:1) 8.8% 9.3% 19.6% 0.47× 10.80
Aberdeen (0:1) 3.6% 5.7% 26.4% 0.21× 17.64
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic (0:2) 96.4% 94.2% 73.6% 1.28× 1.06
Draw (0:2) 2.8% 3.7% 14.5% 0.26× 26.74
Aberdeen (0:2) 0.8% 3.7% 12.2% 0.31× 26.86
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic (0:3) 99.2% 96.7% 87.8% 1.10× 1.04
Draw (0:3) 0.7% 2.4% 6.8% 0.35× 42.11
Aberdeen (0:3) 0.1% 2.4% 5.6% 0.43× 42.13
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic (0:4) 99.9% 98.1% 94.4% 1.04× 1.02
Aberdeen (0:4) 0.0% 1.2% 1.0% 1.18× 81.97
Draw (0:4) 0.1% 1.2% 4.8% 0.26× 81.96
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic (1:0) 45.5% 49.0% 13.4% 3.65× 2.04
Aberdeen (1:0) 30.6% 29.9% 69.0% 0.43× 3.35
Draw (1:0) 23.9% 21.7% 17.8% 1.22× 4.61
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen (2:0) 54.5% 56.0% 86.6% 0.65× 1.78
Celtic (2:0) 24.6% 19.4% 6.0% 3.24× 5.15
Draw (2:0) 20.9% 19.0% 7.6% 2.49× 5.25
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 50.5% 50.1% — — 1.99
1st half highest scoring 26.4% 26.2% — — 3.81
Halves equal 23.1% 24.5% — — 4.08
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen to concede 89.0% 85.7% 66.9% 1.28× 1.17
Aberdeen clean sheet 11.0% 14.3% 33.1% 0.43× 6.99
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen to concede in 1st half 58.7% 62.4% — — 1.60
Aberdeen clean sheet in 1st half 41.3% 37.6% — — 2.66
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen to concede in 2nd half 73.4% 73.1% — — 1.37
Aberdeen clean sheet in 2nd half 26.6% 26.9% — — 3.72
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen under 6.5 corners 80.7% 81.0% — — 1.24
Aberdeen over 2.5 corners 78.1% 76.5% — — 1.31
Aberdeen under 5.5 corners 69.5% 66.7% — — 1.50
Aberdeen over 3.5 corners 61.8% 62.3% — — 1.61
Aberdeen under 4.5 corners 54.9% 52.6% — — 1.90
Aberdeen over 4.5 corners 45.1% 47.4% — — 2.11
Aberdeen under 3.5 corners 38.2% 37.7% — — 2.65
Aberdeen over 5.5 corners 30.5% 33.3% — — 3.01
Aberdeen under 2.5 corners 21.9% 23.5% — — 4.26
Aberdeen over 6.5 corners 19.3% 19.0% — — 5.26
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen under 3.5 goals 99.1% 96.4% 92.1% 1.05× 1.04
Aberdeen under 2.5 goals 95.2% 96.4% 76.2% 1.26× 1.04
Aberdeen under 1.5 goals 80.6% 82.2% 51.4% 1.60× 1.22
Aberdeen over 0.5 goals 55.4% 58.6% 79.5% 0.74× 1.71
Aberdeen under 0.5 goals 44.6% 41.4% 20.5% 2.02× 2.42
Aberdeen over 1.5 goals 19.4% 17.8% 48.6% 0.37× 5.61
Aberdeen over 2.5 goals 4.8% 3.6% 23.8% 0.15× 27.47
Aberdeen over 3.5 goals 0.9% 3.6% 7.9% 0.46× 27.64
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen under 1.5 in 1st half 95.2% 96.5% — — 1.04
Aberdeen under 0.5 in 1st half 70.7% 79.1% — — 1.27
Aberdeen over 0.5 in 1st half 29.3% 20.9% — — 4.78
Aberdeen over 1.5 in 1st half 4.8% 3.5% — — 28.45
Home highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen scores equally in both 52.0% 58.6% — — 1.71
Aberdeen scores more in 2nd half 28.0% 27.9% — — 3.59
Aberdeen scores more in 1st half 19.9% 15.8% — — 6.32
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic (home no bet) 79.2% 78.3% 57.0% 1.37× 1.28
Draw (home no bet) 20.8% 21.7% 43.0% 0.51× 4.60
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen even goals 60.0% 55.3% 51.7% 1.07× 1.81
Aberdeen odd goals 40.0% 44.7% 48.3% 0.92× 2.24
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 29.2% 28.5% — — 3.51
HT 0-1 25.8% 28.4% — — 3.52
HT 0-2 11.4% 11.0% — — 9.11
HT 1-0 10.2% 11.0% — — 9.12
HT 1-1 8.9% 6.9% — — 14.52
Any other HT score 6.5% 6.9% — — 14.56
HT 1-2 4.0% 2.4% — — 42.16
HT 2-0 1.8% 2.4% — — 42.31
HT 2-1 1.6% 2.4% — — 42.32
HT 2-2 0.7% 2.4% — — 42.38
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic at HT / Celtic at FT 43.0% 40.9% — — 2.44
Draw at HT / Celtic at FT 22.8% 21.6% — — 4.63
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 11.0% 12.7% — — 7.90
Aberdeen at HT / Aberdeen at FT 6.5% 6.1% — — 16.51
Draw at HT / Aberdeen at FT 5.1% 6.0% — — 16.55
Aberdeen at HT / Draw at FT 3.8% 3.5% — — 28.90
Aberdeen at HT / Celtic at FT 3.6% 3.5% — — 28.91
Celtic at HT / Draw at FT 3.4% 3.5% — — 28.91
Celtic at HT / Aberdeen at FT 0.8% 3.4% — — 29.01
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic to score last 69.7% 70.6% — — 1.42
Aberdeen to score last 25.5% 27.0% — — 3.70
No goal scored 4.8% 4.4% — — 22.70
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 95.2% 95.5% — — 1.05
Celtic to lead by 1 at any time 79.2% 78.3% — — 1.28
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 58.1% 54.9% — — 1.82
Celtic to lead by 2 at any time 51.5% 50.6% — — 1.98
Aberdeen to lead by 1 at any time 29.0% 25.3% — — 3.95
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 28.9% 25.3% — — 3.95
Celtic to lead by 3 at any time 27.6% 25.3% — — 3.96
Aberdeen to lead by 2 at any time 6.9% 6.6% — — 15.07
Aberdeen to lead by 3 at any time 1.3% 1.6% — — 63.96
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic most corners 67.1% 64.5% — — 1.55
Aberdeen most corners 24.0% 25.9% — — 3.86
Corners level 8.9% 8.3% — — 11.98
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 86.7% 87.4% 87.0% 1.00× 1.14
2-6 goals 76.8% 78.7% 76.7% 1.03× 1.27
1-4 goals 76.5% 78.7% 79.8% 0.99× 1.27
2-5 goals 71.7% 72.3% 71.1% 1.02× 1.38
2-4 goals 61.5% 63.3% 63.8% 0.99× 1.58
1-3 goals 59.6% 59.1% 61.6% 0.96× 1.69
3-6 goals 54.6% 53.2% 55.2% 0.96× 1.88
3-5 goals 49.5% 48.5% 49.6% 0.98× 2.06
2-3 goals 44.6% 43.6% 45.7% 0.95× 2.29
3-4 goals 39.3% 39.2% 42.4% 0.93× 2.55
1-2 goals 37.2% 39.2% 37.6% 1.04× 2.55
4-6 goals 32.2% 35.2% 31.2% 1.13× 2.84
4-5 goals 27.1% 30.2% 25.6% 1.18× 3.31
5-6 goals 15.3% 18.8% 13.0% 1.45× 5.31
7+ goals 3.4% 2.6% 1.9% 1.37× 39.12
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic never behind 66.2% 69.0% — — 1.45
Aberdeen never behind 16.0% 18.1% — — 5.52
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even number of goals 49.9% 50.9% 51.2% 0.99× 1.97
Odd number of goals 50.1% 49.1% 48.8% 1.01× 2.04
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 54.2% 51.8% — — 1.93
Odd goals in 1st half 45.8% 48.2% — — 2.07
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 51.3% 52.0% — — 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 48.7% 48.0% — — 2.08
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 goals 95.2% 95.4% 94.2% 1.01× 1.05
Under 5.5 goals 91.5% 92.3% 92.6% 1.00× 1.08
Under 4.5 goals 81.3% 82.3% 85.3% 0.96× 1.22
Over 1.5 goals 80.2% 82.3% 78.3% 1.05× 1.22
Under 3.5 goals 64.4% 61.7% 67.1% 0.92× 1.62
Over 2.5 goals 58.0% 58.6% 56.8% 1.03× 1.71
Under 2.5 goals 42.0% 41.4% 43.2% 0.96× 2.42
Over 3.5 goals 35.6% 38.3% 32.9% 1.17× 2.61
Under 1.5 goals 19.8% 17.7% 21.7% 0.82× 5.65
Over 4.5 goals 18.7% 17.7% 14.7% 1.21× 5.65
Over 5.5 goals 8.5% 7.7% 7.4% 1.04× 12.93
Under 0.5 goals 4.8% 4.6% 5.8% 0.79× 21.80
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 96.4% 97.2% 98.0% 0.99× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 90.5% 92.4% 92.0% 1.00× 1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 77.5% 75.9% 82.1% 0.92× 1.32
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 74.5% 72.4% 72.4% 1.00× 1.38
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 54.1% 51.9% 56.8% 0.91× 1.93
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 45.9% 48.1% 43.2% 1.11× 2.08
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 25.5% 27.6% 27.6% 1.00× 3.62
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 22.5% 24.1% 17.9% 1.34× 4.15
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 9.5% 7.6% 8.0% 0.95× 13.17
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 3.6% 2.8% 2.0% 1.43× 35.59
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 87.3% 89.0% — — 1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half 70.8% 71.3% — — 1.40
Under 1.5 in 1st half 65.2% 68.6% — — 1.46
Over 1.5 in 1st half 34.8% 31.4% — — 3.18
Under 0.5 in 1st half 29.2% 28.7% — — 3.48
Over 2.5 in 1st half 12.7% 11.0% — — 9.12
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 83.2% 83.0% — — 1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 73.5% 77.7% — — 1.29
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 53.2% 53.2% — — 1.88
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 46.8% 46.8% — — 2.14
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 26.5% 22.3% — — 4.49
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 16.8% 17.0% — — 5.87
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen not to score in both halves 89.2% 85.7% — — 1.17
Celtic not to score in both halves 56.9% 58.0% — — 1.73
Celtic to score in both halves 43.1% 42.0% — — 2.38
Aberdeen to score in both halves 10.8% 14.3% — — 7.01
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 49.2% 50.7% 52.3% 0.97× 1.97
Only Celtic scores 39.8% 39.9% 14.9% 2.68× 2.50
Only Aberdeen scores 6.2% 7.1% 27.5% 0.26× 14.01
Neither team scores 4.8% 4.6% 5.8% 0.80× 21.53
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 3 goals 22.4% 22.6% 24.2% 0.93× 4.43
Exactly 2 goals 22.2% 22.6% 21.7% 1.04× 4.43
Exactly 4 goals 16.9% 17.5% 18.4% 0.95× 5.73
Exactly 1 goals 15.0% 17.5% 16.1% 1.08× 5.73
Exactly 5 goals 10.2% 12.1% 7.4% 1.63× 8.26
6 or more goals 8.5% 7.6% 7.4% 1.02× 13.13
Exactly 0 goals 4.8% 4.5% 5.8% 0.77× 22.33
Total goals 1st half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1 goal in 1st half 36.0% 37.2% — — 2.69
No goals in 1st half 29.2% 28.7% — — 3.49
2 goals in 1st half 22.1% 21.5% — — 4.66
3+ goals in 1st half 12.7% 10.9% — — 9.20
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 53.2% 51.2% — — 1.95
1 goal in 2nd half 30.0% 33.8% — — 2.96
No goals in 2nd half 16.8% 16.8% — — 5.97
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen not to win both halves 98.2% 97.3% — — 1.03
Celtic not to win both halves 72.4% 73.7% — — 1.36
Celtic to win both halves 27.6% 26.3% — — 3.80
Aberdeen to win both halves 1.8% 2.7% — — 36.49
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic to win either half 78.1% 79.7% — — 1.25
Aberdeen to win neither half 74.9% 73.2% — — 1.37
Aberdeen to win either half 25.1% 26.8% — — 3.73
Celtic to win neither half 21.9% 20.3% — — 4.94
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen not to win to nil 93.8% 92.1% 72.5% 1.27× 1.09
Celtic not to win to nil 60.2% 66.5% 85.1% 0.78× 1.51
Celtic to win to nil 39.8% 33.5% 14.9% 2.25× 2.98
Aberdeen to win to nil 6.2% 7.9% 27.5% 0.29× 12.68
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic by 3+ 24.6% 24.1% 6.0% 4.02× 4.15
Celtic by 1 23.9% 24.1% 17.8% 1.36× 4.15
Celtic by 2 20.9% 24.1% 7.6% 3.15× 4.15
Draw 18.2% 17.1% 23.3% 0.73× 5.87
Aberdeen by 1 8.8% 7.2% 19.6% 0.37× 13.90
Aberdeen by 2 2.8% 2.7% 14.5% 0.19× 36.88
Aberdeen by 3+ 0.8% 2.7% 12.2% 0.22× 36.95
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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