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Aberdeen v Dundee — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 28 November 2026 · SCO-Premiership · 2627

SCO-Premiership results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Aberdeen win
43.1%
model 41.2%
Draw
27.3%
model 25.0%
Dundee win
29.5%
model 33.8%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (624 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 11.8%
  2. 1-0 9.3%
  3. 2-1 8.8%
  4. 0-1 8.3%
  5. 1-2 7.8%

Goals

Over 2.552.4% Under 2.547.6%
BTTS yes55.9% BTTS no44.1%
Aberdeen 1+76.9% Aberdeen 2+43.1%
Dundee 1+72.9% Dundee 2+37.5%

Expected goals 1.47 – 1.31. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
77/100
Data quality
65/100
Model agreement
96%
★ Best pick
Dundee (+1.5)
Asian handicap · usually 74%
82.8% fair odds 1.21
moderate signal · 1330 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Dundee (0:2)
Handicap 0:2 · usually 74%
83.5% fair odds 1.20
moderate signal · 504 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Nothing in the data singles out Aberdeen.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Aberdeen have an estimated 43.1% win probability, against 29.5% for Dundee and 27.3% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.47 for Aberdeen and 1.31 for Dundee.

Why Aberdeen

Nothing in the data singles out Aberdeen.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 27.3%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.47 to 1.31. Draws run at 23% in this competition.

Why Dundee can win

Dundee carry the stronger rating, 1461 Elo against 1399.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Aberdeen, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Dundee, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Aberdeen: 45% possession, 9.6 shots a match, 18.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Dundee: 39% possession, 12.8 shots a match, 18.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-27 10:01 · team_stats 2026-10-27 06:03 · availability 2026-10-27 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Aberdeen are the model's most likely outcome at 43.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.8%. Confidence 77/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.47–1.31 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.57–1.23 1-1 12% 53% 56%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen to win 45.3% 47.3% 45.9% 1.03× 2.11
Dundee to win 30.1% 30.4% 31.0% 0.98× 3.29
Draw 24.6% 24.5% 23.3% 1.05× 4.09
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen & not both score 23.3% 21.8% 27.5% 0.79× 4.59
Aberdeen & both teams score 22.0% 21.8% 18.6% 1.17× 4.59
Draw & both teams score 18.6% 18.0% 17.8% 1.01× 5.56
Dundee & both teams score 15.2% 18.0% 16.3% 1.10× 5.57
Dundee & not both score 14.9% 13.3% 14.9% 0.89× 7.54
Draw & not both score 6.0% 8.3% 5.8% 1.44× 12.01
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen & over 1.5 35.6% 34.9% 36.6% 0.95× 2.87
Aberdeen & under 3.5 30.3% 30.7% 30.2% 1.02× 3.25
Aberdeen & over 2.5 28.1% 26.1% 28.1% 0.93× 3.84
Dundee & over 1.5 22.4% 21.6% 24.4% 0.89× 4.63
Dundee & under 3.5 21.4% 21.6% 22.5% 0.96× 4.63
Draw & over 1.5 18.6% 18.0% 17.8% 1.01× 5.55
Draw & under 2.5 17.6% 18.0% 14.9% 1.21× 5.56
Draw & under 3.5 17.6% 18.0% 14.9% 1.21× 5.56
Dundee & over 2.5 17.8% 18.0% 20.5% 0.88× 5.56
Aberdeen & under 2.5 17.2% 18.0% 18.0% 1.00× 5.56
Aberdeen & over 3.5 15.0% 12.8% 15.9% 0.81× 7.79
Dundee & under 2.5 12.3% 12.8% 10.7% 1.19× 7.79
Aberdeen & under 1.5 9.7% 7.9% 9.5% 0.83× 12.63
Dundee & over 3.5 8.7% 7.9% 8.7% 0.91× 12.63
Dundee & under 1.5 7.7% 7.9% 6.8% 1.16× 12.63
Draw & under 1.5 6.0% 7.9% 5.8% 1.37× 12.63
Draw & over 2.5 7.0% 7.9% 8.7% 0.91× 12.63
Draw & over 3.5 7.0% 7.9% 8.7% 0.91× 12.63
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen (1UP) 61.1% 62.8% — — 1.59
Dundee (1UP) 48.0% 43.9% — — 2.28
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen (2UP) 45.3% 49.9% — — 2.00
Dundee (2UP) 30.1% 30.1% — — 3.32
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen to win 2nd half 37.1% 36.4% — — 2.75
2nd half drawn 34.7% 34.0% — — 2.94
Dundee to win 2nd half 28.3% 26.1% — — 3.83
2nd half away goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee under 1.5 in 2nd half 83.1% 84.2% — — 1.19
Dundee over 0.5 in 2nd half 52.2% 52.4% — — 1.91
Dundee under 0.5 in 2nd half 47.8% 47.6% — — 2.10
Dundee over 1.5 in 2nd half 16.9% 15.8% — — 6.31
2nd half home goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen under 1.5 in 2nd half 77.5% 75.3% — — 1.33
Aberdeen over 0.5 in 2nd half 59.0% 58.1% — — 1.72
Aberdeen under 0.5 in 2nd half 41.0% 41.9% — — 2.39
Aberdeen over 1.5 in 2nd half 22.5% 24.7% — — 4.04
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee (+2.5) 90.7% 92.1% 87.8% 1.05× 1.09
Dundee (+1.5) 77.1% 78.5% 73.6% 1.07× 1.27
Aberdeen (+0.5) 69.9% 68.7% 69.0% 1.00× 1.46
Dundee (+0.5) 54.7% 52.4% 54.1% 0.97× 1.91
Aberdeen (-0.5) 45.3% 47.6% 45.9% 1.04× 2.10
Dundee (-0.5) 30.1% 31.3% 31.0% 1.01× 3.19
Aberdeen (-1.5) 22.9% 21.5% 26.4% 0.81× 4.65
Aberdeen (-2.5) 9.3% 7.9% 12.2% 0.65× 12.68
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee to concede 79.1% 78.8% 79.5% 0.99× 1.27
Dundee clean sheet 20.9% 21.2% 20.5% 1.04× 4.71
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee clean sheet in 1st half 51.0% 50.8% — — 1.97
Dundee to concede in 1st half 49.0% 49.2% — — 2.03
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee to concede in 2nd half 59.0% 57.4% — — 1.74
Dundee clean sheet in 2nd half 41.0% 42.6% — — 2.35
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee under 6.5 corners 83.9% 81.4% — — 1.23
Dundee over 2.5 corners 74.9% 71.6% — — 1.40
Dundee under 5.5 corners 73.5% 71.6% — — 1.40
Dundee under 4.5 corners 59.4% 57.2% — — 1.75
Dundee over 3.5 corners 57.6% 57.2% — — 1.75
Dundee under 3.5 corners 42.4% 42.8% — — 2.34
Dundee over 4.5 corners 40.6% 42.8% — — 2.34
Dundee over 5.5 corners 26.5% 28.4% — — 3.53
Dundee under 2.5 corners 25.1% 28.4% — — 3.53
Dundee over 6.5 corners 16.1% 18.6% — — 5.38
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee under 3.5 goals 96.4% 97.5% 96.3% 1.01× 1.03
Dundee under 2.5 goals 87.3% 87.8% 85.5% 1.03× 1.14
Dundee over 0.5 goals 70.7% 71.8% 66.9% 1.07× 1.39
Dundee under 1.5 goals 65.2% 68.0% 63.2% 1.08× 1.47
Dundee over 1.5 goals 34.8% 32.0% 36.8% 0.87× 3.12
Dundee under 0.5 goals 29.3% 28.2% 33.1% 0.85× 3.55
Dundee over 2.5 goals 12.7% 12.2% 14.5% 0.84× 8.20
Dundee over 3.5 goals 3.6% 2.5% 3.7% 0.68× 39.78
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee under 1.5 in 1st half 91.2% 93.9% — — 1.07
Dundee under 0.5 in 1st half 61.2% 63.1% — — 1.58
Dundee over 0.5 in 1st half 38.8% 36.9% — — 2.71
Dundee over 1.5 in 1st half 8.8% 6.1% — — 16.36
Away highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee scores equally in both 40.9% 43.6% — — 2.29
Dundee scores more in 2nd half 37.3% 37.3% — — 2.68
Dundee scores more in 1st half 21.9% 21.8% — — 4.59
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen (away no bet) 64.8% 62.0% 66.3% 0.93× 1.61
Draw (away no bet) 35.2% 38.0% 33.7% 1.13× 2.63
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee even goals 54.3% 52.7% 57.6% 0.91× 1.90
Dundee odd goals 45.7% 47.4% 42.4% 1.12× 2.11
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 84.3% 83.2% — — 1.20
Both halves over 1.5 goals 15.7% 16.8% — — 5.97
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 65.1% 67.7% — — 1.48
Both halves under 1.5 goals 34.9% 32.3% — — 3.10
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 57.0% 54.9% — — 1.82
Aberdeen to score 2+ in a row 37.8% 36.5% — — 2.74
Dundee to score 2+ in a row 25.9% 24.9% — — 4.01
Either team to score 3+ in a row 20.4% 19.5% — — 5.14
Aberdeen to score 3+ in a row 13.6% 12.2% — — 8.21
Dundee to score 3+ in a row 7.1% 5.5% — — 18.21
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen corners (+3.5) 91.3% 89.6% — — 1.12
Aberdeen corners (+2.5) 86.0% 84.5% — — 1.18
Aberdeen corners (+1.5) 78.8% 74.8% — — 1.34
Dundee corners (+3.5) 73.0% 70.8% — — 1.41
Dundee corners (+2.5) 63.2% 61.9% — — 1.62
Dundee corners (+1.5) 52.3% 52.4% — — 1.91
Aberdeen corners (-1.5) 47.7% 47.6% — — 2.10
Aberdeen corners (-2.5) 36.8% 38.1% — — 2.62
Aberdeen corners (-3.5) 27.0% 29.2% — — 3.42
Dundee corners (-1.5) 21.2% 25.2% — — 3.97
Dundee corners (-2.5) 14.0% 15.5% — — 6.45
Dundee corners (-3.5) 8.7% 10.4% — — 9.59
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 39.0% 34.0% — — 2.94
9-11 corners 31.1% 33.2% — — 3.01
12+ corners 29.9% 31.2% — — 3.20
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 78.1% 76.6% — — 1.31
Over 7.5 corners 71.7% 72.5% — — 1.38
Under 11.5 corners 70.1% 72.5% — — 1.38
Over 8.5 corners 61.0% 63.2% — — 1.58
Under 10.5 corners 60.6% 63.2% — — 1.58
Under 9.5 corners 50.0% 53.2% — — 1.88
Over 9.5 corners 50.0% 46.8% — — 2.14
Over 10.5 corners 39.4% 36.8% — — 2.72
Under 8.5 corners 39.0% 36.8% — — 2.72
Over 11.5 corners 29.9% 27.5% — — 3.64
Under 7.5 corners 28.3% 27.5% — — 3.64
Over 12.5 corners 21.9% 23.4% — — 4.27
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% — — 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.8% — — 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 11.6% 11.5% 9.3% 1.23× 8.71
1-0 9.7% 7.4% 9.5% 0.78× 13.51
2-1 9.2% 7.4% 7.0% 1.05× 13.51
0-1 7.7% 7.4% 6.8% 1.09× 13.51
1-2 7.2% 7.4% 8.9% 0.83× 13.51
2-0 7.5% 7.4% 8.7% 0.85× 13.51
0-0 6.0% 7.4% 5.8% 1.28× 13.51
2-2 5.7% 7.4% 6.6% 1.12× 13.51
3-1 4.8% 1.7% 5.6% 0.31× 58.29
0-2 4.6% 1.7% 4.1% 0.42× 58.29
0-3 1.9% 1.7% 3.3% 0.52× 58.31
0-4 0.6% 1.7% 0.4% 4.15× 58.32
1-3 3.0% 1.7% 3.1% 0.55× 58.30
1-4 0.9% 1.7% 0.8% 2.08× 58.31
2-3 2.3% 1.7% 2.3% 0.75× 58.31
2-4 0.7% 1.7% 0.8% 2.07× 58.32
3-0 3.9% 1.7% 5.6% 0.31× 58.30
3-2 3.0% 1.7% 2.9% 0.59× 58.30
3-3 1.2% 1.7% 2.3% 0.75× 58.31
3-4 0.4% 1.7% 0.4% 4.15× 58.32
4-0 1.5% 1.7% 3.5% 0.49× 58.31
4-1 1.9% 1.7% 1.4% 1.19× 58.31
4-2 1.2% 1.7% 0.6% 2.77× 58.31
4-3 0.5% 1.7% 0.8% 2.07× 58.32
4-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.2% 8.30× 58.32
Any other score 3.0% 1.7% 4.1% 0.42× 58.30
DNB 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen (2nd half DNB) 56.7% 59.4% — — 1.68
Dundee (2nd half DNB) 43.3% 40.6% — — 2.47
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen leading at HT (DNB) 60.1% 66.1% — — 1.51
Dundee leading at HT (DNB) 39.9% 33.9% — — 2.95
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen or Dundee (12) 75.4% 75.5% 76.7% 0.99× 1.32
Aberdeen or draw (1X) 69.9% 69.6% 69.0% 1.01× 1.44
Dundee or draw (X2) 54.7% 52.7% 54.1% 0.97× 1.90
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen or draw at HT 77.0% 79.6% — — 1.26
Dundee or draw at HT 65.4% 67.1% — — 1.49
Aberdeen or Dundee at HT 57.6% 57.5% — — 1.74
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen or draw (1UP) 69.9% 76.6% — — 1.31
Dundee or draw (1UP) 54.7% 58.8% — — 1.70
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen or draw in 2nd half 71.7% 73.9% — — 1.35
Aberdeen or Dundee in 2nd half 65.3% 66.0% — — 1.52
Dundee or draw in 2nd half 62.9% 63.6% — — 1.57
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 62.5% 61.4% — — 1.63
Neither half drawn 37.5% 38.7% — — 2.59
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen (DNB) 60.1% 62.6% 59.7% 1.05× 1.60
Dundee (DNB) 39.9% 37.4% 40.3% 0.93× 2.67
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen to score first 52.7% 53.3% — — 1.88
Dundee to score first 41.3% 41.6% — — 2.40
No goal scored 6.0% 7.5% — — 13.29
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 55.8% 55.0% 52.3% 1.05× 1.82
Not both teams to score 44.2% 45.0% 47.7% 0.94× 2.22
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 44.2% 41.6% 43.2% 0.96× 2.40
Not both score & under 2.5 35.4% 38.4% 34.1% 1.13× 2.60
Both score & under 2.5 11.6% 12.4% 9.3% 1.33× 8.09
Not both score & over 2.5 8.7% 8.3% 13.8% 0.60× 12.06
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 83.9% 82.7% 83.9% 0.99× 1.21
Both teams to score 2+ 16.1% 17.3% 16.1% 1.08× 5.77
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 69.3% 67.3% — — 1.49
Both teams to score in 2nd half 30.7% 32.7% — — 3.06
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 56.1% 60.0% — — 1.67
Both score 2nd half only 24.9% 21.3% — — 4.69
Both score 1st half only 13.1% 10.7% — — 9.31
Both score in both halves 5.9% 6.8% — — 14.82
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 81.0% 83.4% — — 1.20
Both teams to score by HT 19.0% 16.6% — — 6.02
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 55.3% 56.9% — — 1.76
A half without a goal 44.7% 43.1% — — 2.32
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 46.0% 47.2% 45.7% 1.03× 2.12
4-6 goals 28.3% 26.6% 31.2% 0.85× 3.76
0-1 goals 23.3% 22.9% 21.7% 1.06× 4.36
7+ goals 2.4% 1.8% 1.9% 0.99× 54.32
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee to score exactly 1 36.0% 35.9% 30.4% 1.18× 2.79
Dundee to score exactly 0 29.3% 27.5% 33.1% 0.83× 3.64
Dundee to score exactly 2 22.1% 22.3% 22.5% 0.99× 4.49
Dundee to score 3+ 12.7% 12.9% 14.5% 0.89× 7.76
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen to score exactly 1 32.7% 32.6% 31.2% 1.04× 3.07
Aberdeen to score exactly 2 25.6% 26.6% 25.0% 1.06× 3.77
Aberdeen to score exactly 0 20.9% 23.3% 20.5% 1.14× 4.30
Aberdeen to score 3+ 20.8% 23.3% 23.8% 0.98× 4.30
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 42.4% 42.5% — — 2.35
Aberdeen leading at HT 34.6% 32.9% — — 3.04
Dundee leading at HT 23.0% 20.4% — — 4.90
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen -1: 2 54.7% 52.2% — — 1.92
Aberdeen -1: 1 22.9% 23.5% — — 4.25
Aberdeen -1: X 22.4% 23.5% — — 4.25
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee (0:1) 54.7% 51.3% 54.1% 0.95× 1.95
Aberdeen (0:1) 22.9% 24.2% 26.4% 0.92× 4.13
Draw (0:1) 22.4% 24.2% 19.6% 1.23× 4.13
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee (0:2) 77.1% 79.4% 73.6% 1.08× 1.26
Draw (0:2) 13.6% 11.0% 14.5% 0.76× 9.09
Aberdeen (0:2) 9.3% 7.7% 12.2% 0.63× 13.04
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee (0:3) 90.7% 92.7% 87.8% 1.06× 1.08
Draw (0:3) 6.2% 5.8% 6.8% 0.85× 17.26
Aberdeen (0:3) 3.1% 2.4% 5.6% 0.43× 42.00
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee (0:4) 96.9% 98.1% 94.4% 1.04× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 2.2% 1.2% 4.8% 0.26× 81.72
Aberdeen (0:4) 0.9% 1.2% 1.0% 1.18× 81.87
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen (1:0) 69.9% 70.2% 69.0% 1.02× 1.42
Draw (1:0) 17.6% 17.1% 17.8% 0.96× 5.85
Dundee (1:0) 12.5% 12.7% 13.4% 0.95× 7.87
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen (2:0) 87.5% 88.5% 86.6% 1.02× 1.13
Draw (2:0) 8.4% 6.4% 7.6% 0.84× 15.65
Dundee (2:0) 4.1% 2.3% 6.0% 0.38× 43.67
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 48.3% 48.6% — — 2.06
1st half highest scoring 27.4% 26.2% — — 3.81
Halves equal 24.3% 24.5% — — 4.08
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen to concede 70.7% 73.0% 66.9% 1.09× 1.37
Aberdeen clean sheet 29.3% 27.0% 33.1% 0.82× 3.70
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen clean sheet in 1st half 61.2% 63.1% — — 1.59
Aberdeen to concede in 1st half 38.8% 36.9% — — 2.71
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen to concede in 2nd half 52.2% 52.5% — — 1.91
Aberdeen clean sheet in 2nd half 47.8% 47.5% — — 2.11
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen over 2.5 corners 87.4% 86.2% — — 1.16
Aberdeen over 3.5 corners 75.5% 76.5% — — 1.31
Aberdeen under 6.5 corners 66.4% 66.7% — — 1.50
Aberdeen over 4.5 corners 61.2% 62.3% — — 1.61
Aberdeen under 5.5 corners 53.3% 52.6% — — 1.90
Aberdeen over 5.5 corners 46.7% 47.4% — — 2.11
Aberdeen under 4.5 corners 38.8% 37.7% — — 2.65
Aberdeen over 6.5 corners 33.6% 33.3% — — 3.01
Aberdeen under 3.5 corners 24.5% 23.5% — — 4.26
Aberdeen under 2.5 corners 12.6% 13.8% — — 7.26
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen under 3.5 goals 92.6% 92.2% 92.1% 1.00× 1.08
Aberdeen under 2.5 goals 79.2% 77.8% 76.2% 1.02× 1.29
Aberdeen over 0.5 goals 79.1% 77.8% 79.5% 0.98× 1.29
Aberdeen under 1.5 goals 53.6% 53.2% 51.4% 1.03× 1.88
Aberdeen over 1.5 goals 46.4% 46.8% 48.6% 0.96× 2.14
Aberdeen under 0.5 goals 20.9% 22.2% 20.5% 1.09× 4.50
Aberdeen over 2.5 goals 20.8% 22.2% 23.8% 0.94× 4.50
Aberdeen over 3.5 goals 7.4% 7.8% 7.9% 0.99× 12.84
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen under 1.5 in 1st half 85.3% 90.0% — — 1.11
Aberdeen under 0.5 in 1st half 51.0% 50.6% — — 1.98
Aberdeen over 0.5 in 1st half 49.0% 49.4% — — 2.02
Aberdeen over 1.5 in 1st half 14.7% 10.0% — — 9.98
Home highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen scores more in 2nd half 38.6% 38.1% — — 2.62
Aberdeen scores equally in both 35.5% 38.1% — — 2.63
Aberdeen scores more in 1st half 26.0% 27.8% — — 3.59
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee (home no bet) 55.0% 51.5% 57.0% 0.90× 1.94
Draw (home no bet) 45.0% 48.5% 43.0% 1.13× 2.06
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen even goals 52.2% 50.8% 51.7% 0.98× 1.97
Aberdeen odd goals 47.8% 49.2% 48.3% 1.02× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 31.2% 33.4% — — 3.00
HT 1-0 21.0% 24.4% — — 4.11
HT 0-1 15.4% 18.5% — — 5.40
HT 1-1 10.3% 11.0% — — 9.12
HT 2-0 7.1% 6.9% — — 14.55
Any other HT score 4.4% 2.4% — — 42.13
HT 0-2 3.8% 2.4% — — 42.17
HT 2-1 3.5% 2.4% — — 42.19
HT 1-2 2.5% 2.4% — — 42.25
HT 2-2 0.9% 2.4% — — 42.36
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen at HT / Aberdeen at FT 27.0% 27.3% — — 3.66
Dundee at HT / Dundee at FT 15.8% 16.8% — — 5.97
Draw at HT / Aberdeen at FT 15.8% 16.8% — — 5.97
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 14.5% 12.7% — — 7.88
Draw at HT / Dundee at FT 12.0% 12.7% — — 7.90
Aberdeen at HT / Draw at FT 5.4% 6.0% — — 16.54
Dundee at HT / Draw at FT 4.7% 3.5% — — 28.87
Dundee at HT / Aberdeen at FT 2.5% 3.5% — — 28.95
Aberdeen at HT / Dundee at FT 2.2% 3.5% — — 28.96
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen to score last 52.7% 52.1% — — 1.92
Dundee to score last 41.4% 40.0% — — 2.50
No goal scored 6.0% 7.5% — — 13.29
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 94.0% 92.6% — — 1.08
Aberdeen to lead by 1 at any time 61.1% 61.2% — — 1.63
Dundee to lead by 1 at any time 48.0% 44.3% — — 2.26
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 47.5% 44.3% — — 2.26
Aberdeen to lead by 2 at any time 29.5% 25.3% — — 3.95
Dundee to lead by 2 at any time 18.2% 14.8% — — 6.74
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 17.1% 14.8% — — 6.75
Aberdeen to lead by 3 at any time 11.5% 10.6% — — 9.45
Dundee to lead by 3 at any time 5.6% 6.6% — — 15.12
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen most corners 59.0% 55.6% — — 1.80
Dundee most corners 30.4% 34.4% — — 2.91
Corners level 10.6% 10.4% — — 9.59
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 87.6% 87.4% 87.0% 1.00× 1.14
1-4 goals 78.9% 78.7% 79.8% 0.99× 1.27
2-6 goals 74.2% 72.3% 76.7% 0.94× 1.38
2-5 goals 70.2% 72.3% 71.1% 1.02× 1.38
1-3 goals 63.3% 63.3% 61.6% 1.03× 1.58
2-4 goals 61.5% 63.3% 63.8% 0.99× 1.58
3-6 goals 50.5% 53.1% 55.2% 0.96× 1.88
3-5 goals 46.5% 48.4% 49.6% 0.98× 2.06
2-3 goals 46.0% 48.4% 45.7% 1.06× 2.06
1-2 goals 41.1% 43.6% 37.6% 1.16× 2.29
3-4 goals 37.8% 39.2% 42.4% 0.92× 2.55
4-6 goals 28.3% 30.2% 31.2% 0.97× 3.31
4-5 goals 24.2% 24.5% 25.6% 0.95× 4.09
5-6 goals 12.7% 14.8% 13.0% 1.14× 6.76
7+ goals 2.4% 2.6% 1.9% 1.37× 39.16
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen never behind 46.0% 56.6% — — 1.77
Dundee never behind 32.9% 36.3% — — 2.75
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even number of goals 49.9% 50.9% 51.2% 0.99× 1.97
Odd number of goals 50.1% 49.1% 48.8% 1.01× 2.04
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 54.8% 51.8% — — 1.93
Odd goals in 1st half 45.2% 48.2% — — 2.08
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 51.8% 52.0% — — 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 48.2% 48.0% — — 2.08
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 goals 94.0% 92.3% 94.2% 0.98× 1.08
Under 5.5 goals 93.5% 92.3% 92.6% 1.00× 1.08
Under 4.5 goals 84.9% 82.3% 85.3% 0.96× 1.22
Over 1.5 goals 76.7% 77.3% 78.3% 0.99× 1.29
Under 3.5 goals 69.3% 66.3% 67.1% 0.99× 1.51
Over 2.5 goals 52.9% 52.5% 56.8% 0.92× 1.90
Under 2.5 goals 47.1% 47.5% 43.2% 1.10× 2.11
Over 3.5 goals 30.7% 33.7% 32.9% 1.02× 2.97
Under 1.5 goals 23.3% 22.7% 21.7% 1.05× 4.40
Over 4.5 goals 15.1% 17.7% 14.7% 1.21× 5.66
Over 5.5 goals 6.5% 7.7% 7.4% 1.04× 12.94
Under 0.5 goals 6.0% 7.7% 5.8% 1.34× 12.94
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 97.5% 97.2% 98.0% 0.99× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 92.9% 92.4% 92.0% 1.00× 1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 82.1% 81.1% 82.1% 0.99× 1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 69.4% 67.5% 72.4% 0.93× 1.48
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 60.5% 61.9% 56.8% 1.09× 1.62
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 39.5% 38.1% 43.2% 0.88× 2.62
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 30.6% 32.5% 27.6% 1.18× 3.08
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 17.9% 18.9% 17.9% 1.05× 5.29
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 7.1% 7.6% 8.0% 0.95× 13.19
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 2.5% 2.8% 2.0% 1.43× 35.62
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 88.7% 89.1% — — 1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half 68.8% 68.7% — — 1.46
Under 1.5 in 1st half 67.6% 68.6% — — 1.46
Over 1.5 in 1st half 32.4% 31.4% — — 3.19
Under 0.5 in 1st half 31.2% 31.3% — — 3.19
Over 2.5 in 1st half 11.3% 10.9% — — 9.16
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 80.5% 82.9% — — 1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 77.6% 79.6% — — 1.26
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 51.6% 53.1% — — 1.88
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 48.4% 46.9% — — 2.13
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 22.4% 20.4% — — 4.89
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 19.5% 17.1% — — 5.84
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee not to score in both halves 79.7% 78.5% — — 1.27
Aberdeen not to score in both halves 71.1% 73.8% — — 1.36
Aberdeen to score in both halves 28.9% 26.2% — — 3.82
Dundee to score in both halves 20.3% 21.5% — — 4.66
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 55.8% 58.5% 52.3% 1.12× 1.71
Only Aberdeen scores 23.3% 22.3% 27.5% 0.81× 4.49
Only Dundee scores 14.9% 11.0% 14.9% 0.74× 9.05
Neither team scores 6.0% 7.1% 5.8% 1.23× 14.02
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 23.7% 22.6% 21.7% 1.04× 4.43
Exactly 3 goals 22.2% 22.6% 24.2% 0.93× 4.43
Exactly 1 goals 17.4% 17.5% 16.1% 1.08× 5.73
Exactly 4 goals 15.5% 17.5% 18.4% 0.95× 5.73
Exactly 5 goals 8.7% 7.6% 7.4% 1.02× 13.13
6 or more goals 6.5% 7.6% 7.4% 1.02× 13.14
Exactly 0 goals 6.0% 7.6% 5.8% 1.32× 13.14
Total goals 1st half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1 goal in 1st half 36.4% 37.2% — — 2.69
No goals in 1st half 31.2% 35.6% — — 2.81
2 goals in 1st half 21.1% 21.5% — — 4.66
3+ goals in 1st half 11.3% 10.8% — — 9.24
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 48.4% 44.8% — — 2.23
1 goal in 2nd half 32.0% 33.9% — — 2.95
No goals in 2nd half 19.5% 16.9% — — 5.93
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee not to win both halves 93.5% 94.2% — — 1.06
Aberdeen not to win both halves 87.2% 87.9% — — 1.14
Aberdeen to win both halves 12.8% 12.1% — — 8.29
Dundee to win both halves 6.5% 5.8% — — 17.19
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen to win either half 58.9% 59.1% — — 1.69
Dundee to win neither half 55.2% 59.0% — — 1.70
Dundee to win either half 44.8% 41.0% — — 2.44
Aberdeen to win neither half 41.1% 40.9% — — 2.44
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee not to win to nil 85.1% 88.1% 85.1% 1.03× 1.14
Aberdeen not to win to nil 76.7% 78.1% 72.5% 1.08× 1.28
Aberdeen to win to nil 23.3% 21.9% 27.5% 0.80× 4.57
Dundee to win to nil 14.9% 11.9% 14.9% 0.80× 8.40
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 24.6% 24.1% 23.3% 1.03× 4.15
Aberdeen by 1 22.4% 24.1% 19.6% 1.23× 4.15
Dundee by 1 17.6% 17.0% 17.8% 0.96× 5.87
Aberdeen by 2 13.6% 11.8% 14.5% 0.81× 8.50
Aberdeen by 3+ 9.3% 7.2% 12.2% 0.59× 13.90
Dundee by 2 8.4% 7.2% 7.6% 0.94× 13.91
Dundee by 3+ 4.1% 2.7% 6.0% 0.45× 36.84
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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