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Aberdeen v Dundee United — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 5 December 2026 · SCO-Premiership · 2627

SCO-Premiership results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Aberdeen win
43.1%
model 40.6%
Draw
27.3%
model 26.2%
Dundee United win
29.5%
model 33.1%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (624 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 12.5%
  2. 1-0 10.7%
  3. 0-1 9.5%
  4. 2-1 8.6%
  5. 0-0 7.6%

Goals

Over 2.547.1% Under 2.552.9%
BTTS yes51.7% BTTS no48.3%
Aberdeen 1+74.3% Aberdeen 2+39.4%
Dundee United 1+69.9% Dundee United 2+33.7%

Expected goals 1.36 – 1.20. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
79/100
Data quality
65/100
Model agreement
98%
★ Best pick
Under 2.5 goals
Over/Under · usually 43%
52.9% fair odds 1.89
strong signal · 1367 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Dundee United (0:2)
Handicap 0:2 · usually 74%
83.6% fair odds 1.20
moderate signal · 504 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Nothing in the data singles out Aberdeen.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Aberdeen have an estimated 43.1% win probability, against 29.5% for Dundee United and 27.3% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.36 for Aberdeen and 1.20 for Dundee United.

Why Aberdeen

Nothing in the data singles out Aberdeen.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 27.3%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.36 to 1.20. Draws run at 23% in this competition.

Why Dundee United can win

Dundee United carry the stronger rating, 1439 Elo against 1399.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Aberdeen, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Dundee United, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Aberdeen: 45% possession, 9.6 shots a match, 18.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Dundee United: 51% possession, 13.2 shots a match, 16.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-27 10:01 · team_stats 2026-10-27 06:03 · availability 2026-10-27 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Aberdeen are the model's most likely outcome at 43.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.5%. Confidence 79/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.36–1.20 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.23–1.09 1-1 13% 41% 47%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen to win 39.6% 36.4% 45.9% 0.79× 2.75
Dundee United to win 32.5% 30.4% 31.0% 0.98× 3.29
Draw 27.8% 27.9% 23.3% 1.20× 3.58
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen & not both score 24.1% 21.8% 27.5% 0.79× 4.59
Dundee United & not both score 19.5% 18.0% 14.9% 1.21× 5.56
Draw & both teams score 18.1% 18.0% 17.8% 1.01× 5.56
Aberdeen & both teams score 15.6% 18.0% 18.6% 0.97× 5.57
Dundee United & both teams score 13.0% 13.3% 16.3% 0.81× 7.54
Draw & not both score 9.7% 8.3% 5.8% 1.44× 11.99
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen & under 3.5 31.0% 30.7% 30.2% 1.02× 3.25
Aberdeen & over 1.5 27.3% 26.1% 36.6% 0.71× 3.84
Dundee United & under 3.5 25.9% 26.1% 22.5% 1.16× 3.84
Draw & under 2.5 22.7% 21.6% 14.9% 1.45× 4.63
Draw & under 3.5 22.7% 21.6% 14.9% 1.45× 4.63
Dundee United & over 1.5 21.6% 21.6% 24.4% 0.89× 4.63
Aberdeen & over 2.5 19.9% 18.0% 28.1% 0.64× 5.55
Aberdeen & under 2.5 19.8% 18.0% 18.0% 1.00× 5.55
Draw & over 1.5 18.1% 18.0% 17.8% 1.01× 5.56
Dundee United & under 2.5 16.7% 18.0% 10.7% 1.68× 5.56
Dundee United & over 2.5 15.8% 18.0% 20.5% 0.88× 5.56
Aberdeen & under 1.5 12.3% 12.8% 9.5% 1.35× 7.79
Dundee United & under 1.5 10.9% 12.8% 6.8% 1.88× 7.79
Aberdeen & over 3.5 8.7% 7.9% 15.9% 0.50× 12.63
Draw & under 1.5 9.7% 7.9% 5.8% 1.37× 12.63
Dundee United & over 3.5 6.6% 7.9% 8.7% 0.91× 12.63
Draw & over 2.5 5.1% 7.9% 8.7% 0.91× 12.63
Draw & over 3.5 5.1% 7.9% 8.7% 0.91× 12.63
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen (1UP) 54.0% 52.4% — — 1.91
Dundee United (1UP) 47.6% 43.8% — — 2.28
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen (2UP) 39.6% 37.5% — — 2.67
Dundee United (2UP) 32.5% 30.3% — — 3.30
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half drawn 39.0% 36.5% — — 2.74
Aberdeen to win 2nd half 32.0% 34.0% — — 2.94
Dundee United to win 2nd half 29.0% 26.1% — — 3.83
2nd half away goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United under 1.5 in 2nd half 86.1% 87.0% — — 1.15
Dundee United under 0.5 in 2nd half 52.2% 52.4% — — 1.91
Dundee United over 0.5 in 2nd half 47.8% 47.6% — — 2.10
Dundee United over 1.5 in 2nd half 13.9% 13.0% — — 7.72
2nd half home goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen under 1.5 in 2nd half 84.4% 82.5% — — 1.21
Aberdeen over 0.5 in 2nd half 50.4% 54.9% — — 1.82
Aberdeen under 0.5 in 2nd half 49.6% 45.1% — — 2.22
Aberdeen over 1.5 in 2nd half 15.6% 17.5% — — 5.72
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United (+2.5) 94.2% 92.1% 87.8% 1.05× 1.09
Dundee United (+1.5) 82.8% 82.6% 73.6% 1.12× 1.21
Aberdeen (+0.5) 67.5% 68.7% 69.0% 1.00× 1.46
Dundee United (+0.5) 60.4% 62.9% 54.1% 1.16× 1.59
Aberdeen (-0.5) 39.6% 37.1% 45.9% 0.81× 2.70
Dundee United (-0.5) 32.5% 31.3% 31.0% 1.01× 3.19
Aberdeen (-1.5) 17.2% 17.4% 26.4% 0.66× 5.74
Aberdeen (-2.5) 5.8% 7.9% 12.2% 0.65× 12.72
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United to concede 70.8% 76.6% 79.5% 0.96× 1.31
Dundee United clean sheet 29.2% 23.4% 20.5% 1.14× 4.28
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United clean sheet in 1st half 58.9% 56.6% — — 1.77
Dundee United to concede in 1st half 41.1% 43.4% — — 2.30
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United to concede in 2nd half 50.4% 54.4% — — 1.84
Dundee United clean sheet in 2nd half 49.6% 45.6% — — 2.19
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United under 6.5 corners 80.9% 81.4% — — 1.23
Dundee United over 2.5 corners 77.9% 76.1% — — 1.32
Dundee United under 5.5 corners 69.8% 67.6% — — 1.48
Dundee United over 3.5 corners 61.5% 61.7% — — 1.62
Dundee United under 4.5 corners 55.2% 57.2% — — 1.75
Dundee United over 4.5 corners 44.8% 42.8% — — 2.34
Dundee United under 3.5 corners 38.5% 38.3% — — 2.61
Dundee United over 5.5 corners 30.2% 32.4% — — 3.09
Dundee United under 2.5 corners 22.1% 24.0% — — 4.18
Dundee United over 6.5 corners 19.1% 18.6% — — 5.38
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United under 3.5 goals 97.5% 97.5% 96.3% 1.01× 1.03
Dundee United under 2.5 goals 90.3% 92.3% 85.5% 1.08× 1.08
Dundee United under 1.5 goals 70.5% 71.8% 63.2% 1.14× 1.39
Dundee United over 0.5 goals 66.2% 68.0% 66.9% 1.02× 1.47
Dundee United under 0.5 goals 33.8% 32.0% 33.1% 0.97× 3.13
Dundee United over 1.5 goals 29.5% 28.2% 36.8% 0.77× 3.55
Dundee United over 2.5 goals 9.7% 7.7% 14.5% 0.53× 13.05
Dundee United over 3.5 goals 2.5% 2.5% 3.7% 0.67× 39.84
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United under 1.5 in 1st half 92.9% 93.9% — — 1.06
Dundee United under 0.5 in 1st half 64.8% 63.4% — — 1.58
Dundee United over 0.5 in 1st half 35.2% 36.6% — — 2.73
Dundee United over 1.5 in 1st half 7.1% 6.1% — — 16.52
Away highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United scores equally in both 44.0% 43.7% — — 2.29
Dundee United scores more in 2nd half 35.1% 37.3% — — 2.68
Dundee United scores more in 1st half 20.9% 21.7% — — 4.60
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen (away no bet) 58.7% 57.4% 66.3% 0.87× 1.74
Draw (away no bet) 41.3% 42.6% 33.7% 1.26× 2.35
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United even goals 55.7% 56.9% 57.6% 0.99× 1.76
Dundee United odd goals 44.3% 43.1% 42.4% 1.02× 2.32
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 90.2% 91.2% — — 1.10
Both halves over 1.5 goals 9.8% 8.8% — — 11.30
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 54.3% 51.2% — — 1.95
Both halves under 1.5 goals 45.7% 48.8% — — 2.05
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 47.1% 46.1% — — 2.17
Aberdeen to score 2+ in a row 28.2% 25.0% — — 4.01
Dundee United to score 2+ in a row 23.0% 19.5% — — 5.12
Either team to score 3+ in a row 14.3% 12.2% — — 8.20
Aberdeen to score 3+ in a row 8.4% 5.5% — — 18.10
Dundee United to score 3+ in a row 6.0% 5.5% — — 18.30
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen corners (+3.5) 90.7% 89.6% — — 1.12
Aberdeen corners (+2.5) 85.4% 84.5% — — 1.18
Aberdeen corners (+1.5) 78.3% 74.8% — — 1.34
Dundee United corners (+3.5) 72.0% 70.8% — — 1.41
Dundee United corners (+2.5) 62.4% 61.9% — — 1.62
Dundee United corners (+1.5) 51.8% 52.4% — — 1.91
Aberdeen corners (-1.5) 48.2% 47.6% — — 2.10
Aberdeen corners (-2.5) 37.6% 38.1% — — 2.62
Aberdeen corners (-3.5) 28.0% 29.2% — — 3.42
Dundee United corners (-1.5) 21.7% 25.2% — — 3.97
Dundee United corners (-2.5) 14.6% 15.5% — — 6.45
Dundee United corners (-3.5) 9.3% 10.4% — — 9.59
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
12+ corners 35.3% 34.0% — — 2.94
0-8 corners 33.7% 33.2% — — 3.01
9-11 corners 31.0% 33.2% — — 3.01
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 7.5 corners 76.1% 76.6% — — 1.31
Under 12.5 corners 73.3% 72.5% — — 1.38
Over 8.5 corners 66.3% 67.8% — — 1.48
Under 11.5 corners 64.7% 63.3% — — 1.58
Over 9.5 corners 55.6% 57.9% — — 1.73
Under 10.5 corners 54.9% 53.2% — — 1.88
Over 10.5 corners 45.1% 46.8% — — 2.14
Under 9.5 corners 44.4% 42.1% — — 2.37
Over 11.5 corners 35.3% 36.7% — — 2.72
Under 8.5 corners 33.7% 32.2% — — 3.11
Over 12.5 corners 26.7% 27.5% — — 3.64
Under 7.5 corners 23.9% 23.4% — — 4.27
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% — — 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.8% — — 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 13.0% 11.5% 9.3% 1.23× 8.71
1-0 12.3% 11.5% 9.5% 1.21× 8.71
0-1 10.9% 11.5% 6.8% 1.68× 8.72
0-0 9.7% 7.4% 5.8% 1.28× 13.51
1-2 7.2% 7.4% 8.9% 0.83× 13.51
2-0 7.5% 7.4% 8.7% 0.85× 13.51
2-1 8.1% 7.4% 7.0% 1.05× 13.51
0-2 5.8% 7.4% 4.1% 1.79× 13.51
0-3 2.1% 1.7% 3.3% 0.52× 58.31
0-4 0.6% 1.7% 0.4% 4.15× 58.32
1-3 2.6% 1.7% 3.1% 0.55× 58.30
1-4 0.7% 1.7% 0.8% 2.07× 58.32
2-2 4.4% 1.7% 6.6% 0.26× 58.29
2-3 1.6% 1.7% 2.3% 0.75× 58.31
2-4 0.4% 1.7% 0.8% 2.07× 58.32
3-0 3.1% 1.7% 5.6% 0.31× 58.30
3-1 3.3% 1.7% 5.6% 0.31× 58.30
3-2 1.8% 1.7% 2.9% 0.59× 58.31
3-3 0.7% 1.7% 2.3% 0.75× 58.32
3-4 0.2% 1.7% 0.4% 4.15× 58.32
4-0 0.9% 1.7% 3.5% 0.49× 58.31
4-1 1.0% 1.7% 1.4% 1.19× 58.31
4-2 0.6% 1.7% 0.6% 2.77× 58.32
4-3 0.2% 1.7% 0.8% 2.07× 58.32
4-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.2% 8.30× 58.32
Any other score 1.4% 1.7% 4.1% 0.42× 58.31
DNB 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen (2nd half DNB) 52.5% 54.5% — — 1.84
Dundee United (2nd half DNB) 47.5% 45.5% — — 2.20
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen leading at HT (DNB) 56.1% 55.4% — — 1.81
Dundee United leading at HT (DNB) 43.9% 44.6% — — 2.24
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen or Dundee United (12) 72.2% 72.1% 76.7% 0.94× 1.39
Aberdeen or draw (1X) 67.5% 69.6% 69.0% 1.01× 1.44
Dundee United or draw (X2) 60.4% 63.6% 54.1% 1.18× 1.57
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen or draw at HT 76.9% 79.6% — — 1.26
Dundee United or draw at HT 70.5% 74.4% — — 1.34
Aberdeen or Dundee United at HT 52.6% 48.5% — — 2.06
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen or draw (1UP) 67.5% 76.4% — — 1.31
Dundee United or draw (1UP) 60.4% 71.5% — — 1.40
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen or draw in 2nd half 71.0% 73.9% — — 1.35
Dundee United or draw in 2nd half 68.0% 66.0% — — 1.52
Aberdeen or Dundee United in 2nd half 61.0% 63.5% — — 1.57
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 68.1% 68.3% — — 1.46
Neither half drawn 31.9% 31.7% — — 3.15
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen (DNB) 54.9% 51.0% 59.7% 0.85× 1.96
Dundee United (DNB) 45.1% 49.0% 40.3% 1.22× 2.04
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen to score first 48.0% 45.9% — — 2.18
Dundee United to score first 42.3% 41.7% — — 2.40
No goal scored 9.7% 7.6% — — 13.08
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 53.3% 51.3% 47.7% 1.07× 1.95
Both teams to score 46.7% 48.7% 52.3% 0.93× 2.05
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both score & under 2.5 46.2% 44.3% 34.1% 1.30× 2.26
Both score & over 2.5 33.7% 34.6% 43.2% 0.80× 2.89
Both score & under 2.5 13.0% 12.4% 9.3% 1.33× 8.09
Not both score & over 2.5 7.1% 8.3% 13.8% 0.60× 12.07
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 89.7% 85.6% 83.9% 1.02× 1.17
Both teams to score 2+ 10.3% 14.4% 16.1% 0.89× 6.96
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 75.9% 75.0% — — 1.33
Both teams to score in 2nd half 24.1% 25.0% — — 3.99
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 65.0% 66.1% — — 1.51
Both score 2nd half only 20.6% 21.2% — — 4.72
Both score 1st half only 10.9% 10.7% — — 9.34
Both score in both halves 3.5% 4.9% — — 20.45
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 85.6% 84.7% — — 1.18
Both teams to score by HT 14.4% 15.3% — — 6.52
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half without a goal 54.3% 52.7% — — 1.90
A goal in each half 45.8% 47.3% — — 2.11
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 46.7% 47.2% 45.7% 1.03× 2.12
0-1 goals 32.9% 30.7% 21.7% 1.42× 3.25
4-6 goals 19.4% 20.2% 31.2% 0.65× 4.94
7+ goals 1.0% 1.8% 1.9% 0.99× 54.47
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United to score exactly 1 36.7% 35.9% 30.4% 1.18× 2.78
Dundee United to score exactly 0 33.8% 33.8% 33.1% 1.02× 2.96
Dundee United to score exactly 2 19.9% 19.6% 22.5% 0.87× 5.12
Dundee United to score 3+ 9.7% 8.6% 14.5% 0.59× 11.68
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen to score exactly 1 36.0% 35.5% 31.2% 1.14× 2.81
Aberdeen to score exactly 0 29.2% 26.6% 20.5% 1.30× 3.76
Aberdeen to score exactly 2 22.1% 23.3% 25.0% 0.93× 4.29
Aberdeen to score 3+ 12.7% 14.3% 23.8% 0.60× 6.99
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 47.4% 51.5% — — 1.94
Aberdeen leading at HT 29.5% 25.6% — — 3.91
Dundee United leading at HT 23.1% 20.4% — — 4.90
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen -1: 2 60.4% 62.5% — — 1.60
Aberdeen -1: X 22.4% 23.5% — — 4.25
Aberdeen -1: 1 17.2% 17.5% — — 5.72
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United (0:1) 60.4% 61.4% 54.1% 1.13× 1.63
Draw (0:1) 22.4% 24.2% 19.6% 1.23× 4.13
Aberdeen (0:1) 17.2% 17.8% 26.4% 0.67× 5.62
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United (0:2) 82.8% 83.0% 73.6% 1.13× 1.21
Draw (0:2) 11.4% 11.0% 14.5% 0.76× 9.10
Aberdeen (0:2) 5.8% 7.7% 12.2% 0.63× 13.07
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United (0:3) 94.2% 92.7% 87.8% 1.06× 1.08
Draw (0:3) 4.2% 2.4% 6.8% 0.35× 41.95
Aberdeen (0:3) 1.6% 2.4% 5.6% 0.43× 42.07
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United (0:4) 98.4% 98.1% 94.4% 1.04× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 1.2% 1.2% 4.8% 0.26× 81.83
Aberdeen (0:4) 0.4% 1.2% 1.0% 1.18× 81.93
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen (1:0) 67.5% 70.2% 69.0% 1.02× 1.43
Draw (1:0) 19.8% 17.1% 17.8% 0.96× 5.84
Dundee United (1:0) 12.7% 12.7% 13.4% 0.95× 7.87
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen (2:0) 87.3% 88.5% 86.6% 1.02× 1.13
Draw (2:0) 8.9% 6.4% 7.6% 0.84× 15.64
Dundee United (2:0) 3.8% 2.3% 6.0% 0.38× 43.69
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 45.9% 48.5% — — 2.06
Halves equal 27.3% 26.2% — — 3.81
1st half highest scoring 26.8% 26.2% — — 3.81
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen to concede 66.2% 66.7% 66.9% 1.00× 1.50
Aberdeen clean sheet 33.8% 33.3% 33.1% 1.01× 3.00
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen clean sheet in 1st half 64.8% 63.3% — — 1.58
Aberdeen to concede in 1st half 35.2% 36.7% — — 2.72
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen clean sheet in 2nd half 52.2% 52.5% — — 1.91
Aberdeen to concede in 2nd half 47.8% 47.5% — — 2.11
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen over 2.5 corners 89.1% 86.2% — — 1.16
Aberdeen over 3.5 corners 78.3% 76.5% — — 1.31
Aberdeen over 4.5 corners 64.9% 62.3% — — 1.61
Aberdeen under 6.5 corners 62.6% 62.3% — — 1.61
Aberdeen over 5.5 corners 50.7% 52.6% — — 1.90
Aberdeen under 5.5 corners 49.3% 47.4% — — 2.11
Aberdeen over 6.5 corners 37.4% 37.7% — — 2.65
Aberdeen under 4.5 corners 35.1% 37.7% — — 2.65
Aberdeen under 3.5 corners 21.7% 23.5% — — 4.26
Aberdeen under 2.5 corners 10.9% 13.8% — — 7.26
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen under 3.5 goals 96.4% 96.4% 92.1% 1.05× 1.04
Aberdeen under 2.5 goals 87.3% 87.3% 76.2% 1.14× 1.15
Aberdeen over 0.5 goals 70.8% 74.2% 79.5% 0.93× 1.35
Aberdeen under 1.5 goals 65.2% 67.9% 51.4% 1.32× 1.47
Aberdeen over 1.5 goals 34.8% 32.1% 48.6% 0.66× 3.12
Aberdeen under 0.5 goals 29.2% 25.8% 20.5% 1.26× 3.88
Aberdeen over 2.5 goals 12.7% 12.7% 23.8% 0.54× 7.85
Aberdeen over 3.5 goals 3.6% 3.6% 7.9% 0.46× 27.53
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen under 1.5 in 1st half 90.1% 94.6% — — 1.06
Aberdeen under 0.5 in 1st half 58.9% 56.4% — — 1.78
Aberdeen over 0.5 in 1st half 41.1% 43.6% — — 2.29
Aberdeen over 1.5 in 1st half 9.9% 5.4% — — 18.42
Home highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen scores equally in both 41.1% 41.7% — — 2.40
Aberdeen scores more in 2nd half 34.9% 33.3% — — 3.01
Aberdeen scores more in 1st half 24.0% 21.0% — — 4.75
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United (home no bet) 53.9% 51.5% 57.0% 0.90× 1.94
Draw (home no bet) 46.1% 48.5% 43.0% 1.13× 2.06
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen even goals 54.3% 50.8% 51.7% 0.98× 1.97
Aberdeen odd goals 45.7% 49.2% 48.3% 1.02× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 38.2% 38.7% — — 2.58
HT 1-0 20.2% 24.3% — — 4.11
HT 0-1 16.6% 18.5% — — 5.39
HT 1-1 8.7% 6.9% — — 14.52
HT 2-0 5.3% 6.9% — — 14.58
HT 0-2 3.6% 2.4% — — 42.19
Any other HT score 2.6% 2.4% — — 42.25
HT 2-1 2.3% 2.4% — — 42.27
HT 1-2 1.9% 2.4% — — 42.30
HT 2-2 0.5% 2.4% — — 42.39
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen at HT / Aberdeen at FT 22.6% 21.6% — — 4.63
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 18.3% 16.8% — — 5.96
Dundee United at HT / Dundee United at FT 16.8% 16.8% — — 5.97
Draw at HT / Aberdeen at FT 15.3% 16.7% — — 5.97
Draw at HT / Dundee United at FT 13.8% 12.7% — — 7.89
Aberdeen at HT / Draw at FT 5.1% 6.0% — — 16.55
Dundee United at HT / Draw at FT 4.5% 3.5% — — 28.87
Dundee United at HT / Aberdeen at FT 1.8% 3.5% — — 28.97
Aberdeen at HT / Dundee United at FT 1.9% 3.5% — — 28.97
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen to score last 48.0% 46.4% — — 2.16
Dundee United to score last 42.3% 40.0% — — 2.50
No goal scored 9.7% 7.6% — — 13.08
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 90.3% 92.5% — — 1.08
Aberdeen to lead by 1 at any time 54.0% 50.7% — — 1.97
Dundee United to lead by 1 at any time 47.6% 44.3% — — 2.26
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 39.3% 34.9% — — 2.87
Aberdeen to lead by 2 at any time 22.1% 19.5% — — 5.12
Dundee United to lead by 2 at any time 17.2% 14.8% — — 6.75
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 12.1% 10.6% — — 9.44
Aberdeen to lead by 3 at any time 7.2% 6.6% — — 15.05
Dundee United to lead by 3 at any time 4.9% 1.7% — — 60.57
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen most corners 59.0% 55.6% — — 1.80
Dundee United most corners 30.7% 34.4% — — 2.91
Corners level 10.3% 10.4% — — 9.59
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 87.2% 87.4% 87.0% 1.00× 1.14
1-4 goals 81.7% 83.4% 79.8% 1.05× 1.20
1-3 goals 69.9% 68.8% 61.6% 1.12× 1.45
2-6 goals 66.1% 68.8% 76.7% 0.90× 1.45
2-5 goals 64.0% 63.3% 71.1% 0.89× 1.58
2-4 goals 58.5% 59.1% 63.8% 0.93× 1.69
1-2 goals 49.5% 48.5% 37.6% 1.29× 2.06
2-3 goals 46.7% 48.4% 45.7% 1.06× 2.06
3-6 goals 39.8% 39.2% 55.2% 0.71× 2.55
3-5 goals 37.7% 39.2% 49.6% 0.79× 2.55
3-4 goals 32.2% 35.2% 42.4% 0.83× 2.84
4-6 goals 19.4% 18.8% 31.2% 0.60× 5.31
4-5 goals 17.3% 18.8% 25.6% 0.73× 5.31
5-6 goals 7.6% 8.9% 13.0% 0.68× 11.26
7+ goals 1.0% 2.5% 1.9% 1.37× 39.23
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen never behind 42.7% 48.8% — — 2.05
Dundee United never behind 36.3% 44.2% — — 2.27
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 49.8% 50.9% 48.8% 1.04× 1.97
Even number of goals 50.2% 49.1% 51.2% 0.96× 2.04
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 57.2% 57.8% — — 1.73
Odd goals in 1st half 42.8% 42.2% — — 2.37
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 53.2% 52.0% — — 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 46.8% 48.0% — — 2.09
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 96.9% 95.4% 92.6% 1.03× 1.05
Under 4.5 goals 91.5% 92.3% 85.3% 1.08× 1.08
Over 0.5 goals 90.3% 92.3% 94.2% 0.98× 1.08
Under 3.5 goals 79.6% 77.3% 67.1% 1.15× 1.29
Over 1.5 goals 67.1% 66.3% 78.3% 0.85× 1.51
Under 2.5 goals 59.2% 58.6% 43.2% 1.36× 1.71
Over 2.5 goals 40.8% 41.4% 56.8% 0.73× 2.42
Under 1.5 goals 32.9% 33.7% 21.7% 1.55× 2.97
Over 3.5 goals 20.4% 22.7% 32.9% 0.69× 4.41
Under 0.5 goals 9.7% 7.7% 5.8% 1.34× 12.92
Over 4.5 goals 8.6% 7.7% 14.7% 0.53× 12.93
Over 5.5 goals 3.1% 4.6% 7.4% 0.62× 21.83
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 99.0% 97.2% 98.0% 0.99× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 96.7% 97.2% 92.0% 1.06× 1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 90.3% 92.4% 82.1% 1.13× 1.08
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 74.4% 72.4% 56.8% 1.27× 1.38
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 55.4% 55.8% 72.4% 0.77× 1.79
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 44.6% 44.2% 27.6% 1.60× 2.26
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 25.6% 27.6% 43.2% 0.64× 3.62
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 9.7% 7.6% 17.9% 0.42× 13.17
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 3.3% 2.8% 8.0% 0.35× 35.60
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 1.0% 2.8% 2.0% 1.42× 35.67
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 92.6% 92.8% — — 1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half 75.0% 71.4% — — 1.40
Over 0.5 in 1st half 61.8% 63.2% — — 1.58
Under 0.5 in 1st half 38.2% 36.8% — — 2.72
Over 1.5 in 1st half 25.0% 28.6% — — 3.50
Over 2.5 in 1st half 7.4% 7.2% — — 13.92
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 84.5% 83.0% — — 1.21
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 74.2% 77.8% — — 1.29
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 60.9% 61.4% — — 1.63
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 39.1% 38.6% — — 2.59
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 25.8% 22.2% — — 4.50
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 15.5% 17.0% — — 5.88
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United not to score in both halves 83.2% 84.3% — — 1.19
Aberdeen not to score in both halves 79.3% 78.5% — — 1.27
Aberdeen to score in both halves 20.7% 21.5% — — 4.66
Dundee United to score in both halves 16.8% 15.7% — — 6.39
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 46.7% 50.7% 52.3% 0.97× 1.97
Only Aberdeen scores 24.1% 22.3% 27.5% 0.81× 4.49
Only Dundee United scores 19.5% 16.1% 14.9% 1.08× 6.23
Neither team scores 9.7% 7.2% 5.8% 1.24× 13.98
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 26.3% 24.9% 21.7% 1.15× 4.02
Exactly 1 goals 23.2% 22.6% 16.1% 1.40× 4.43
Exactly 3 goals 20.4% 22.6% 24.2% 0.93× 4.43
Exactly 4 goals 11.8% 12.1% 18.4% 0.66× 8.26
Exactly 0 goals 9.7% 7.6% 5.8% 1.32× 13.13
Exactly 5 goals 5.5% 7.6% 7.4% 1.02× 13.15
6 or more goals 3.1% 4.5% 7.4% 0.60× 22.35
Total goals 1st half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
No goals in 1st half 38.2% 37.3% — — 2.68
1 goal in 1st half 36.8% 37.3% — — 2.68
2 goals in 1st half 17.7% 15.7% — — 6.38
3+ goals in 1st half 7.4% 7.2% — — 13.92
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 39.1% 40.1% — — 2.50
1 goal in 2nd half 35.1% 39.6% — — 2.53
No goals in 2nd half 25.8% 29.1% — — 3.44
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United not to win both halves 93.3% 94.2% — — 1.06
Aberdeen not to win both halves 90.6% 94.1% — — 1.06
Aberdeen to win both halves 9.4% 5.9% — — 16.98
Dundee United to win both halves 6.7% 5.8% — — 17.18
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United to win neither half 54.6% 54.4% — — 1.84
Aberdeen to win either half 52.1% 54.3% — — 1.84
Aberdeen to win neither half 47.9% 45.7% — — 2.19
Dundee United to win either half 45.4% 45.6% — — 2.19
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United not to win to nil 80.5% 83.1% 85.1% 0.98× 1.20
Aberdeen not to win to nil 75.9% 78.1% 72.5% 1.08× 1.28
Aberdeen to win to nil 24.1% 21.9% 27.5% 0.80× 4.57
Dundee United to win to nil 19.5% 16.9% 14.9% 1.14× 5.91
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 27.8% 27.9% 23.3% 1.19× 3.59
Aberdeen by 1 22.4% 24.1% 19.6% 1.23× 4.15
Dundee United by 1 19.8% 17.1% 17.8% 0.96× 5.86
Aberdeen by 2 11.4% 11.8% 14.5% 0.81× 8.51
Dundee United by 2 8.9% 7.2% 7.6% 0.94× 13.90
Aberdeen by 3+ 5.8% 7.2% 12.2% 0.59× 13.92
Dundee United by 3+ 3.8% 2.7% 6.0% 0.45× 36.85
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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