Abha v Al Riyadh — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Thursday 26 November 2026 · KSA-Pro League · 2627
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyRaw model output; no calibration record for this fixture's bands yet.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 13.3%
- 2-1 8.5%
- 1-2 8.2%
- 0-0 7.4%
- 1-0 7.2%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 53.4% | Under 2.5 | 46.6% |
| BTTS yes | 58.4% | BTTS no | 41.6% |
| Abha 1+ | 76.2% | Abha 2+ | 42.1% |
| Al Riyadh 1+ | 74.8% | Al Riyadh 2+ | 40.0% |
Expected goals 1.44 – 1.38. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Abha carry the stronger rating, 1454 Elo against 1406.
Risk factors
- Data quality is 45/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
- Abha have only 4 matches on record.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Abha have an estimated 37.3% win probability, against 34.7% for Al Riyadh and 28.0% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.44 for Abha and 1.38 for Al Riyadh.
Why Abha
Abha carry the stronger rating, 1454 Elo against 1406.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 28.0%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.44 to 1.38. Draws run at 22% in this competition.
Why Al Riyadh can win
Nothing in the data singles out Al Riyadh.
Key players
No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.
Availability
No lineup on record for Abha, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Al Riyadh, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Abha: 52% possession, 11.2 shots a match, 12.5 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Al Riyadh: 36% possession, 9.6 shots a match, 16.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-24 13:59 · team_stats 2026-10-24 06:04 · availability 2026-10-24 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·
Abha are the model's most likely outcome at 37.3%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 13.3%. Confidence 61/100, data quality 45/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 1.44–1.38 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| dc-xg | 1.32–1.62 | 1-1 13% | 56% | 60% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.