AC Milan v Atalanta — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 17 October 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2627

Serie A xG Prediction generated 4 Sep 2026, 06:09 UTC

AC Milan

13:00 UTC

Atalanta

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 8 Sep, 07:54 · 941h before kick-off

AC Milan win

49.7%

model 46.7%

Draw

22.4%

model 23.5%

Atalanta win

27.9%

model 29.8%

502228

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (476 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 10.8%
2-1 9.3%
1-0 8.0%
1-2 7.2%
2-0 7.0%

Goals

Over 2.5	59.2%	Under 2.5	40.8%
BTTS yes	60.7%	BTTS no	39.3%
AC Milan 1+	82.2%	AC Milan 2+	51.5%
Atalanta 1+	73.8%	Atalanta 2+	38.7%

Expected goals 1.73 – 1.34. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

91/100

Data quality

90/100

Model agreement

96%

★ Best pick

3-6 goals

Multi goal · usually 47%

58.7% fair odds 1.70

strong signal · 1778 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Under 12.5 corners

Corners O/U

83.0% fair odds 1.21

moderate signal · 4281 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

AC Milan have created 1.40 xG a match over their last five while Atalanta have allowed 1.73.
Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.
At home AC Milan average 1.90 xG a match.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

AC Milan have an estimated 49.7% win probability, against 27.9% for Atalanta and 22.4% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.73 for AC Milan and 1.34 for Atalanta.

Why AC Milan

AC Milan have created 1.40 xG a match over their last five while Atalanta have allowed 1.73. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five. At home AC Milan average 1.90 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 22.4%. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why Atalanta can win

Atalanta have created 1.19 xG a match over their last five while AC Milan have allowed 1.50. Away from home Atalanta average 1.28 xG a match. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: AC Milan were missing 1.35 expected goal involvements a match against 1.03.

Key players

AC Milan's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Gonçalo Ramos (0.55), Rafael Leão (0.43), Christian Pulisic (0.40). Atalanta's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Nikola Krstovic (0.45), Charles De Ketelaere (0.40), Gianluca Scamacca (0.31).

Availability

2 of AC Milan's top three contributors did not start their last match. 27% of AC Milan's last eleven are new to the club this window. 1 of Atalanta's top three contributors did not start their last match. Atalanta had a player sent off last time out, worth about 0.14 expected goal involvements a match. Reported unavailable for Atalanta: Gianluca Gaetano (suspended).

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

AC Milan: 51% possession, 12.4 shots a match, 13.4 faced, 0.24 xG a match from set pieces. Atalanta: 47% possession, 11.4 shots a match, 19.6 faced, 0.11 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-08 10:52 · team_stats 2026-09-08 06:03 · availability 2026-09-08 11:54 · prediction 2026-09-04 06:09 ·

AC Milan are the model's most likely outcome at 49.7%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 10.8%. Confidence 91/100, data quality 90/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

AC Milan are finishing below their chances — 3.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.0 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

LWDLLWLWWD last 10 scored 11 from 14.0 xG conceded 13 from 15.0 xG

Atalanta are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

LDLDWLDWWL last 10 scored 11 from 11.9 xG conceded 12 from 17.3 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	472430	1.73–1.34	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	432334	1.70–1.48	1-1 10%	62%	63%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan to win	46.7%	49.2%	39.4%	1.25×	2.03
Atalanta to win	29.8%	27.7%	34.0%	0.81×	3.62
Draw	23.5%	22.2%	26.8%	0.83×	4.51

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan & both teams score	25.1%	26.3%	16.9%	1.55×	3.81
AC Milan & not both score	21.6%	22.6%	22.6%	1.00×	4.43
Draw & both teams score	18.9%	17.8%	18.7%	0.95×	5.63
Atalanta & both teams score	16.7%	17.7%	13.3%	1.34×	5.64
Atalanta & not both score	13.1%	12.2%	20.8%	0.58×	8.22
Draw & not both score	4.7%	3.7%	8.2%	0.45×	26.96

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan & over 1.5	38.6%	37.5%	29.0%	1.29×	2.66
AC Milan & over 2.5	31.7%	33.1%	22.5%	1.47×	3.02
AC Milan & under 3.5	28.3%	25.5%	29.4%	0.87×	3.92
Atalanta & over 1.5	23.6%	21.5%	24.6%	0.87×	4.65
Atalanta & over 2.5	19.4%	17.6%	18.1%	0.97×	5.69
Atalanta & under 3.5	19.5%	17.6%	26.6%	0.66×	5.69
Draw & over 1.5	18.9%	17.6%	18.7%	0.94×	5.69
AC Milan & over 3.5	18.3%	17.6%	10.1%	1.74×	5.69
Draw & under 2.5	15.4%	17.6%	19.9%	0.88×	5.70
Draw & under 3.5	15.4%	17.6%	19.9%	0.88×	5.70
AC Milan & under 2.5	15.0%	17.6%	17.0%	1.03×	5.70
Atalanta & under 2.5	10.4%	12.7%	16.0%	0.79×	7.87
Atalanta & over 3.5	10.3%	12.7%	7.4%	1.71×	7.87
AC Milan & under 1.5	8.1%	7.5%	10.5%	0.71×	13.41
Draw & over 2.5	8.1%	7.5%	6.9%	1.07×	13.41
Draw & over 3.5	8.1%	7.5%	6.9%	1.07×	13.41
Atalanta & under 1.5	6.2%	7.5%	9.5%	0.79×	13.42
Draw & under 1.5	4.7%	4.6%	8.2%	0.56×	21.91

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan (1UP)	63.4%	64.0%	54.7%	1.17×	1.56
Atalanta (1UP)	49.1%	44.7%	51.1%	0.87×	2.24

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan (2UP)	46.7%	49.5%	41.0%	1.21×	2.02
Atalanta (2UP)	29.8%	30.8%	36.5%	0.84×	3.25

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan to win 2nd half	48.0%	44.6%	34.7%	1.28×	2.24
2nd half drawn	31.7%	33.7%	35.9%	0.94×	2.97
Atalanta to win 2nd half	20.3%	22.2%	29.5%	0.75×	4.51

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta (+2.5)	89.2%	89.0%	92.4%	0.96×	1.12
Atalanta (+1.5)	75.1%	78.5%	83.0%	0.95×	1.27
AC Milan (+0.5)	70.2%	73.0%	66.0%	1.11×	1.37
Atalanta (+0.5)	53.3%	51.6%	60.6%	0.85×	1.94
AC Milan (-0.5)	46.7%	48.4%	39.4%	1.23×	2.07
Atalanta (-0.5)	29.8%	27.0%	34.0%	0.80×	3.70
AC Milan (-1.5)	24.9%	21.5%	17.0%	1.26×	4.65
AC Milan (-2.5)	10.8%	11.0%	7.6%	1.45×	9.13

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta to concede	82.2%	84.8%	71.1%	1.19×	1.18
Atalanta clean sheet	17.8%	15.2%	28.9%	0.53×	6.57

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta clean sheet in 1st half	55.4%	60.2%	58.8%	1.02×	1.66
Atalanta to concede in 1st half	44.6%	39.8%	41.2%	0.97×	2.51

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta under 6.5 corners	83.6%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Atalanta under 5.5 corners	74.1%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Atalanta over 2.5 corners	71.3%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Atalanta under 4.5 corners	61.3%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Atalanta over 3.5 corners	54.4%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Atalanta under 3.5 corners	45.6%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Atalanta over 4.5 corners	38.7%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Atalanta under 2.5 corners	28.7%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Atalanta over 5.5 corners	25.9%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Atalanta over 6.5 corners	16.4%	18.6%	—	—	5.37

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta under 3.5 goals	95.3%	97.3%	97.1%	1.00×	1.03
Atalanta under 2.5 goals	84.8%	82.3%	88.4%	0.93×	1.22
Atalanta over 0.5 goals	73.8%	72.0%	69.3%	1.04×	1.39
Atalanta under 1.5 goals	61.3%	64.1%	65.4%	0.98×	1.56
Atalanta over 1.5 goals	38.7%	35.9%	34.6%	1.04×	2.79
Atalanta under 0.5 goals	26.2%	28.0%	30.7%	0.91×	3.57
Atalanta over 2.5 goals	15.2%	17.7%	11.6%	1.52×	5.66
Atalanta over 3.5 goals	4.7%	2.7%	2.9%	0.93×	36.90

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta under 1.5 in 1st half	84.1%	81.3%	90.2%	0.90×	1.23
Atalanta over 0.5 in 1st half	50.9%	50.8%	41.0%	1.24×	1.97
Atalanta under 0.5 in 1st half	49.1%	49.2%	59.0%	0.83×	2.03
Atalanta over 1.5 in 1st half	15.9%	18.7%	9.8%	1.90×	5.34

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan (away no bet)	66.5%	71.5%	59.5%	1.20×	1.40
Draw (away no bet)	33.5%	28.5%	40.5%	0.70×	3.51

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta even goals	53.4%	52.4%	55.7%	0.94×	1.91
Atalanta odd goals	46.6%	47.6%	44.3%	1.07×	2.10

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	80.3%	81.6%	87.2%	0.94×	1.23
Both halves over 1.5 goals	19.7%	18.4%	12.8%	1.44×	5.43

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	70.4%	71.1%	59.6%	1.19×	1.41
Both halves under 1.5 goals	29.6%	28.9%	40.4%	0.71×	3.46

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	61.9%	61.3%	52.8%	1.16×	1.63
AC Milan to score 2+ in a row	41.8%	45.0%	31.1%	1.45×	2.22
Atalanta to score 2+ in a row	28.5%	25.2%	27.7%	0.91×	3.97
Either team to score 3+ in a row	23.8%	21.8%	17.3%	1.26×	4.59
AC Milan to score 3+ in a row	16.0%	17.8%	9.7%	1.83×	5.62
Atalanta to score 3+ in a row	8.2%	7.4%	7.7%	0.96×	13.59

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan corners (+3.5)	85.1%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Atalanta corners (+3.5)	83.9%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
AC Milan corners (+2.5)	77.6%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Atalanta corners (+2.5)	76.1%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
AC Milan corners (+1.5)	68.1%	65.8%	—	—	1.52
Atalanta corners (+1.5)	66.3%	65.8%	—	—	1.52
AC Milan corners (-1.5)	33.7%	34.2%	—	—	2.93
Atalanta corners (-1.5)	31.9%	34.2%	—	—	2.93
AC Milan corners (-2.5)	23.9%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Atalanta corners (-2.5)	22.4%	25.2%	—	—	3.98
AC Milan corners (-3.5)	16.1%	20.2%	—	—	4.95
Atalanta corners (-3.5)	14.9%	15.5%	—	—	6.45

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	55.8%	46.3%	—	—	2.16
9-11 corners	26.1%	31.2%	—	—	3.20
12+ corners	18.1%	22.7%	—	—	4.41

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	87.4%	83.0%	—	—	1.21
Under 11.5 corners	81.9%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Under 10.5 corners	74.8%	72.6%	—	—	1.38
Under 9.5 corners	66.0%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Under 8.5 corners	55.8%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 7.5 corners	55.4%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 7.5 corners	44.6%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Over 8.5 corners	44.2%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Over 9.5 corners	34.0%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Over 10.5 corners	25.2%	27.4%	—	—	3.65
Over 11.5 corners	18.1%	19.3%	—	—	5.18
Over 12.5 corners	12.6%	17.0%	—	—	5.88

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	10.8%	11.6%	11.9%	0.98×	8.64
2-1	9.3%	7.3%	9.2%	0.79×	13.74
1-0	8.1%	7.3%	10.5%	0.69×	13.74
1-2	7.2%	7.3%	7.6%	0.96×	13.75
2-0	7.0%	7.3%	6.7%	1.09×	13.75
0-1	6.2%	7.3%	9.5%	0.77×	13.75
2-2	6.2%	7.3%	6.1%	1.20×	13.75
3-1	5.4%	7.3%	3.0%	2.40×	13.75
0-0	4.7%	1.8%	8.2%	0.22×	55.39
0-2	4.2%	1.8%	6.7%	0.27×	55.40
3-0	4.0%	1.8%	3.4%	0.53×	55.41
Any other score	4.3%	1.8%	2.8%	0.65×	55.40
1-3	3.2%	1.8%	1.9%	0.95×	55.43
2-3	2.8%	1.8%	3.0%	0.60×	55.44
3-2	3.6%	1.8%	2.9%	0.62×	55.42
0-3	1.9%	1.8%	3.3%	0.55×	55.46
3-3	1.6%	1.8%	0.9%	2.04×	55.47
4-0	1.7%	1.8%	1.6%	1.10×	55.47
4-1	2.3%	1.8%	1.1%	1.59×	55.45
4-2	1.6%	1.8%	0.1%	14.28×	55.47
0-4	0.6%	1.8%	1.0%	1.78×	55.49
1-4	1.1%	1.8%	0.8%	2.38×	55.48
2-4	0.9%	1.8%	0.1%	14.27×	55.49
3-4	0.5%	1.8%	0.3%	7.14×	55.50
4-3	0.7%	1.8%	0.3%	7.14×	55.49
4-4	0.2%	1.8%	0.3%	7.13×	55.50

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta leading at HT (DNB)	56.2%	56.6%	49.9%	1.13×	1.77
AC Milan leading at HT (DNB)	43.8%	43.4%	50.1%	0.87×	2.30

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan or Atalanta (12)	76.5%	77.8%	73.2%	1.06×	1.29
AC Milan or draw (1X)	70.2%	72.3%	66.0%	1.10×	1.38
Atalanta or draw (X2)	53.3%	50.8%	60.6%	0.84×	1.97

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta or draw at HT	73.7%	71.5%	72.5%	0.99×	1.40
AC Milan or draw at HT	66.2%	66.2%	72.6%	0.91×	1.51
AC Milan or Atalanta at HT	60.1%	63.1%	54.8%	1.15×	1.59

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan or draw (1UP)	70.2%	77.3%	71.3%	1.08×	1.29
Atalanta or draw (1UP)	53.3%	58.8%	66.3%	0.89×	1.70

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan or draw in 2nd half	79.7%	77.8%	70.5%	1.10×	1.29
AC Milan or Atalanta in 2nd half	68.3%	66.3%	64.1%	1.03×	1.51
Atalanta or draw in 2nd half	52.0%	55.4%	65.3%	0.85×	1.81

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	59.0%	58.0%	64.4%	0.90×	1.72
Neither half drawn	41.0%	42.0%	35.6%	1.18×	2.38

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan (DNB)	61.0%	62.2%	53.7%	1.16×	1.61
Atalanta (DNB)	39.0%	37.8%	46.3%	0.82×	2.64

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan to score first	53.7%	53.7%	47.7%	1.13×	1.86
Atalanta to score first	41.6%	41.3%	44.2%	0.94×	2.42
No goal scored	4.7%	4.1%	8.2%	0.50×	24.52

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	60.7%	57.3%	48.6%	1.18×	1.75
Not both teams to score	39.3%	42.7%	51.4%	0.83×	2.34

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	49.9%	45.4%	36.9%	1.23×	2.20
Not both score & under 2.5	30.1%	34.3%	41.0%	0.84×	2.91
Both score & under 2.5	10.8%	11.7%	11.9%	0.99×	8.54
Not both score & over 2.5	9.3%	8.7%	10.5%	0.83×	11.44

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	80.1%	81.1%	86.9%	0.93×	1.23
Both teams to score 2+	19.9%	18.9%	13.1%	1.44×	5.30

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	68.3%	69.5%	74.7%	0.93×	1.44
Both teams to score in 2nd half	31.7%	30.5%	25.3%	1.21×	3.28

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	52.8%	54.9%	63.1%	0.87×	1.82
Both score 2nd half only	24.5%	24.4%	20.5%	1.20×	4.09
Both score 1st half only	15.5%	18.1%	11.7%	1.54×	5.53
Both score in both halves	7.2%	6.5%	4.9%	1.32×	15.41

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	77.3%	79.8%	83.5%	0.96×	1.25
Both teams to score by HT	22.7%	20.2%	16.5%	1.22×	4.95

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	60.3%	62.9%	51.8%	1.21×	1.59
A half without a goal	39.7%	37.1%	48.2%	0.77×	2.69

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	44.3%	43.2%	48.0%	0.90×	2.31
4-6 goals	33.1%	31.6%	23.5%	1.35×	3.16
0-1 goals	18.9%	20.8%	27.9%	0.74×	4.82
7+ goals	3.7%	2.0%	0.9%	2.23×	50.82

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta to score exactly 1	35.1%	34.5%	34.8%	0.99×	2.90
Atalanta to score exactly 0	26.2%	27.1%	30.7%	0.88×	3.70
Atalanta to score exactly 2	23.5%	24.0%	23.1%	1.04×	4.17
Atalanta to score 3+	15.2%	18.3%	11.6%	1.57×	5.47

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan to score exactly 1	30.7%	30.5%	32.3%	0.94×	3.28
AC Milan to score exactly 2	26.5%	27.1%	24.6%	1.10×	3.70
AC Milan to score 3+	25.0%	27.0%	14.4%	1.88×	3.70
AC Milan to score exactly 0	17.8%	18.5%	28.9%	0.64×	5.40

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	39.9%	36.9%	45.2%	0.82×	2.71
Atalanta leading at HT	33.8%	33.8%	27.4%	1.23×	2.96
AC Milan leading at HT	26.3%	28.5%	27.5%	1.03×	3.51

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan -1: 2	53.3%	51.6%	—	—	1.94
AC Milan -1: 1	24.9%	24.0%	—	—	4.17
AC Milan -1: X	21.7%	23.9%	—	—	4.18

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta (0:1)	53.3%	53.5%	60.6%	0.88×	1.87
AC Milan (0:1)	24.9%	24.5%	17.0%	1.44×	4.09
Draw (0:1)	21.7%	24.4%	22.5%	1.09×	4.10

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta (0:2)	75.1%	77.3%	83.0%	0.93×	1.29
Draw (0:2)	14.1%	11.8%	9.6%	1.23×	8.49
AC Milan (0:2)	10.8%	11.7%	7.6%	1.54×	8.56

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta (0:3)	89.2%	88.5%	92.4%	0.96×	1.13
Draw (0:3)	6.9%	6.9%	4.5%	1.52×	14.48
AC Milan (0:3)	3.9%	2.3%	3.2%	0.74×	42.75

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta (0:4)	96.1%	98.0%	96.8%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	2.7%	1.3%	2.3%	0.55×	79.96
AC Milan (0:4)	1.2%	1.2%	1.0%	1.23×	80.75

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan (1:0)	70.2%	73.6%	66.0%	1.11×	1.36
Draw (1:0)	16.8%	16.3%	19.9%	0.82×	6.12
Atalanta (1:0)	13.0%	11.8%	14.1%	0.83×	8.48

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan (2:0)	87.0%	89.2%	85.9%	1.04×	1.12
Draw (2:0)	8.5%	6.6%	8.5%	0.78×	15.09
Atalanta (2:0)	4.5%	2.7%	5.8%	0.47×	36.71

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	48.4%	48.7%	46.6%	1.05×	2.05
1st half highest scoring	28.3%	26.1%	26.8%	0.98×	3.83
Halves equal	23.3%	23.2%	26.8%	0.87×	4.31

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan to concede	73.8%	71.3%	69.3%	1.03×	1.40
AC Milan clean sheet	26.2%	28.7%	30.7%	0.94×	3.48

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan to concede in 1st half	50.9%	50.8%	41.0%	1.24×	1.97
AC Milan clean sheet in 1st half	49.1%	49.2%	59.0%	0.83×	2.03

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan under 6.5 corners	82.6%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
AC Milan under 5.5 corners	72.9%	71.8%	—	—	1.39
AC Milan over 2.5 corners	72.4%	71.8%	—	—	1.39
AC Milan under 4.5 corners	59.9%	57.6%	—	—	1.74
AC Milan over 3.5 corners	55.8%	57.6%	—	—	1.74
AC Milan under 3.5 corners	44.2%	42.4%	—	—	2.36
AC Milan over 4.5 corners	40.1%	42.4%	—	—	2.36
AC Milan under 2.5 corners	27.6%	28.2%	—	—	3.55
AC Milan over 5.5 corners	27.1%	28.2%	—	—	3.55
AC Milan over 6.5 corners	17.4%	19.0%	—	—	5.26

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan under 3.5 goals	90.3%	92.0%	95.5%	0.96×	1.09
AC Milan over 0.5 goals	82.2%	82.4%	71.1%	1.16×	1.21
AC Milan under 2.5 goals	75.0%	72.8%	85.6%	0.85×	1.37
AC Milan over 1.5 goals	51.5%	52.7%	38.9%	1.36×	1.90
AC Milan under 1.5 goals	48.5%	47.3%	61.1%	0.77×	2.11
AC Milan over 2.5 goals	25.0%	27.2%	14.4%	1.89×	3.68
AC Milan under 0.5 goals	17.8%	17.6%	28.9%	0.61×	5.69
AC Milan over 3.5 goals	9.7%	8.0%	4.5%	1.75×	12.55

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan under 1.5 in 1st half	88.1%	87.8%	90.2%	0.97×	1.14
AC Milan under 0.5 in 1st half	55.4%	59.9%	58.8%	1.02×	1.67
AC Milan over 0.5 in 1st half	44.6%	40.1%	41.2%	0.97×	2.50
AC Milan over 1.5 in 1st half	11.9%	12.2%	9.8%	1.24×	8.22

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta (home no bet)	55.9%	54.2%	55.9%	0.97×	1.84
Draw (home no bet)	44.1%	45.8%	44.1%	1.04×	2.18

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan even goals	51.6%	50.2%	56.6%	0.89×	1.99
AC Milan odd goals	48.4%	49.8%	43.4%	1.15×	2.01

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	27.2%	28.1%	34.3%	0.82×	3.56
HT 0-1	19.4%	18.9%	18.4%	1.03×	5.28
HT 1-0	16.1%	18.9%	18.3%	1.03×	5.30
HT 1-1	11.4%	11.2%	10.5%	1.07×	8.95
HT 0-2	6.9%	7.7%	5.4%	1.42×	13.01
Any other HT score	5.7%	7.7%	3.0%	2.53×	13.03
HT 2-0	4.7%	2.5%	5.6%	0.45×	39.73
HT 1-2	4.1%	2.5%	2.5%	1.00×	39.77
HT 2-1	3.4%	2.5%	2.3%	1.11×	39.81
HT 2-2	1.2%	2.5%	0.6%	3.97×	39.93

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan at HT / AC Milan at FT	22.0%	21.4%	21.3%	1.00×	4.67
Atalanta at HT / Atalanta at FT	20.6%	21.4%	19.2%	1.11×	4.68
Draw at HT / AC Milan at FT	19.2%	16.8%	15.8%	1.06×	5.96
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	12.7%	12.0%	16.7%	0.72×	8.35
Draw at HT / Atalanta at FT	8.1%	6.6%	13.0%	0.51×	15.20
Atalanta at HT / Draw at FT	7.7%	6.6%	5.9%	1.11×	15.21
Atalanta at HT / AC Milan at FT	5.5%	6.6%	2.5%	2.59×	15.26
AC Milan at HT / Draw at FT	3.2%	3.4%	4.4%	0.77×	29.38
AC Milan at HT / Atalanta at FT	1.1%	3.4%	2.0%	1.68×	29.47

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan to score last	53.7%	53.7%	48.4%	1.11×	1.86
Atalanta to score last	41.6%	40.3%	43.6%	0.92×	2.48
No goal scored	4.7%	4.1%	8.2%	0.50×	24.52

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	95.3%	95.9%	91.8%	1.05×	1.04
AC Milan to lead by 1 at any time	63.4%	64.4%	54.7%	1.18×	1.55
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	51.6%	50.9%	42.6%	1.20×	1.96
Atalanta to lead by 1 at any time	49.1%	46.2%	51.1%	0.90×	2.17
AC Milan to lead by 2 at any time	32.4%	32.1%	22.9%	1.40×	3.12
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	19.9%	17.7%	14.5%	1.22×	5.65
Atalanta to lead by 2 at any time	19.5%	17.7%	20.1%	0.88×	5.65
AC Milan to lead by 3 at any time	13.6%	11.3%	8.3%	1.36×	8.81
Atalanta to lead by 3 at any time	6.3%	7.0%	6.3%	1.11×	14.23

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan most corners	45.0%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Atalanta most corners	43.1%	43.5%	—	—	2.30
Corners level	11.8%	10.4%	—	—	9.60

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	86.3%	87.9%	89.1%	0.99×	1.14
2-6 goals	77.4%	78.8%	71.3%	1.11×	1.27
1-4 goals	75.8%	78.8%	80.7%	0.98×	1.27
2-5 goals	72.0%	73.6%	69.4%	1.06×	1.36
2-4 goals	61.5%	62.3%	61.0%	1.02×	1.61
1-3 goals	58.6%	58.8%	67.7%	0.87×	1.70
3-6 goals	55.5%	58.7%	46.5%	1.26×	1.70
3-5 goals	50.1%	52.3%	44.6%	1.17×	1.91
2-3 goals	44.3%	43.6%	48.0%	0.91×	2.29
3-4 goals	39.6%	38.9%	36.1%	1.08×	2.57
1-2 goals	36.2%	38.8%	44.7%	0.87×	2.58
4-6 goals	33.1%	34.1%	23.5%	1.45×	2.93
4-5 goals	27.7%	30.5%	21.6%	1.41×	3.28
5-6 goals	15.9%	18.1%	10.5%	1.72×	5.54
7+ goals	3.7%	2.0%	0.9%	2.31×	48.88

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan never behind	46.2%	53.6%	48.9%	1.10×	1.87
Atalanta never behind	31.9%	36.1%	45.3%	0.80×	2.77

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.9%	50.1%	51.8%	0.97×	1.99
Even number of goals	50.1%	49.9%	48.2%	1.03×	2.01

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	53.7%	51.9%	56.8%	0.91×	1.93
Odd goals in 1st half	46.3%	48.1%	43.2%	1.11×	2.08

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.5%	51.7%	51.4%	1.01×	1.94
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.5%	48.3%	48.6%	0.99×	2.07

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	95.3%	95.6%	91.8%	1.04×	1.05
Under 5.5 goals	90.9%	92.9%	97.2%	0.96×	1.08
Over 1.5 goals	81.1%	80.9%	72.1%	1.12×	1.24
Under 4.5 goals	80.4%	80.9%	88.8%	0.91×	1.24
Under 3.5 goals	63.2%	61.6%	75.8%	0.81×	1.62
Over 2.5 goals	59.1%	57.8%	47.2%	1.22×	1.73
Under 2.5 goals	40.9%	42.2%	52.8%	0.80×	2.37
Over 3.5 goals	36.8%	38.4%	24.2%	1.59×	2.60
Over 4.5 goals	19.6%	19.1%	11.2%	1.70×	5.24
Under 1.5 goals	18.9%	19.1%	27.9%	0.68×	5.25
Over 5.5 goals	9.1%	7.1%	2.8%	2.55×	14.14
Under 0.5 goals	4.7%	4.4%	8.2%	0.54×	22.77

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	96.1%	97.2%	99.1%	0.98×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	89.9%	88.2%	97.0%	0.91×	1.13
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	76.4%	76.5%	87.1%	0.88×	1.31
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	75.7%	76.4%	62.9%	1.22×	1.31
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	52.6%	53.1%	68.5%	0.77×	1.88
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	47.4%	46.9%	31.5%	1.49×	2.13
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	24.3%	23.6%	37.1%	0.63×	4.24
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	23.6%	23.5%	12.9%	1.82×	4.25
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	10.1%	11.8%	3.0%	3.89×	8.46
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	3.9%	2.8%	0.9%	3.10×	35.85

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	85.7%	88.0%	91.9%	0.96×	1.14
Over 0.5 in 1st half	72.8%	72.4%	65.7%	1.10×	1.38
Under 1.5 in 1st half	62.7%	63.0%	70.8%	0.89×	1.59
Over 1.5 in 1st half	37.3%	37.0%	29.2%	1.27×	2.71
Under 0.5 in 1st half	27.2%	27.6%	34.3%	0.80×	3.63
Over 2.5 in 1st half	14.3%	12.0%	8.1%	1.48×	8.34

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	82.9%	82.1%	77.9%	1.05×	1.22
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	74.0%	76.4%	82.3%	0.93×	1.31
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	47.3%	51.8%	56.8%	0.91×	1.93
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	52.7%	48.2%	43.2%	1.12×	2.08
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	26.0%	23.6%	17.7%	1.34×	4.23
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	17.1%	17.9%	22.1%	0.81×	5.58

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta not to score in both halves	76.3%	78.0%	78.8%	0.99×	1.28
AC Milan not to score in both halves	69.7%	67.1%	76.3%	0.88×	1.49
AC Milan to score in both halves	30.3%	32.9%	23.7%	1.38×	3.04
Atalanta to score in both halves	23.7%	22.0%	21.2%	1.04×	4.56

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	60.7%	57.9%	48.6%	1.19×	1.73
Only AC Milan scores	21.6%	22.8%	22.6%	1.01×	4.39
Only Atalanta scores	13.1%	10.8%	20.8%	0.52×	9.24
Neither team scores	4.7%	3.9%	8.2%	0.48×	25.40

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	22.4%	21.5%	23.1%	0.93×	4.64
Exactly 2 goals	21.9%	21.5%	25.0%	0.86×	4.64
Exactly 4 goals	17.2%	18.6%	13.1%	1.41×	5.39
Exactly 1 goals	14.3%	12.4%	19.8%	0.62×	8.08
Exactly 5 goals	10.5%	12.3%	8.6%	1.44×	8.10
6 or more goals	9.1%	7.6%	2.8%	2.75×	13.11
Exactly 0 goals	4.7%	4.4%	8.2%	0.53×	22.82

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	52.7%	47.5%	43.2%	1.10×	2.11
1 goal in 2nd half	30.2%	33.1%	34.8%	0.95×	3.02
No goals in 2nd half	17.1%	18.3%	22.1%	0.83×	5.46

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta not to win both halves	93.1%	93.4%	91.4%	1.02×	1.07
AC Milan not to win both halves	87.4%	87.5%	90.3%	0.97×	1.14
AC Milan to win both halves	12.6%	12.5%	9.7%	1.28×	8.03
Atalanta to win both halves	6.9%	6.6%	8.6%	0.77×	15.12

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan to win either half	61.7%	63.6%	52.5%	1.21×	1.57
Atalanta to win neither half	52.8%	54.0%	51.6%	1.04×	1.85
Atalanta to win either half	47.2%	46.0%	48.4%	0.95×	2.17
AC Milan to win neither half	38.3%	36.4%	47.5%	0.77×	2.75

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta not to win to nil	86.9%	88.3%	79.2%	1.11×	1.13
AC Milan not to win to nil	78.4%	77.2%	77.4%	1.00×	1.30
AC Milan to win to nil	21.6%	22.8%	22.6%	1.01×	4.39
Atalanta to win to nil	13.1%	11.7%	20.8%	0.56×	8.51

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	23.5%	23.8%	26.8%	0.89×	4.21
AC Milan by 1	21.7%	23.7%	22.5%	1.06×	4.21
Atalanta by 1	16.8%	17.0%	19.9%	0.85×	5.89
AC Milan by 2	14.1%	11.9%	9.6%	1.24×	8.42
AC Milan by 3+	10.8%	11.8%	7.6%	1.56×	8.45
Atalanta by 2	8.5%	7.1%	8.5%	0.84×	14.08
Atalanta by 3+	4.5%	2.8%	5.8%	0.49×	35.13