AC Milan v Benfica — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Wednesday 16 September 2026 · EUR-Europa League · 2627

Europa League results-only Prediction generated 8 Sep 2026, 11:44 UTC

AC Milan

19:00 UTC

Benfica

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 8 Sep, 07:54 · 203h before kick-off

AC Milan win

27.2%

model 26.2%

Draw

21.8%

model 23.2%

Benfica win

51.0%

model 50.6%

272251

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (419 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 10.8%
1-2 9.6%
0-1 8.8%
0-2 7.9%
2-1 6.6%

Goals

Over 2.5	57.9%	Under 2.5	42.1%
BTTS yes	58.8%	BTTS no	41.2%
AC Milan 1+	70.6%	AC Milan 2+	34.6%
Benfica 1+	83.2%	Benfica 2+	53.3%

Expected goals 1.22 – 1.79. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

29/100

Data quality

45/100

★ Best pick

Benfica (-0.5)

Asian handicap · usually 31%

52.0% fair odds 1.92

strong signal · 11449 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Not both teams to score 2+

GG/NG 2+ · usually 86%

83.1% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 6854 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Benfica carry the stronger rating, 1782 Elo against 1650.
Form is good: 2.20 points a match from the last five.
They have had 16 days' rest to AC Milan's 10.

Risk factors

Data quality is 45/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Benfica have an estimated 51.0% win probability, against 27.2% for AC Milan and 21.8% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.22 for AC Milan and 1.79 for Benfica.

Why AC Milan

Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five. At home AC Milan average 1.90 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 21.8%.

Why Benfica can win

Benfica carry the stronger rating, 1782 Elo against 1650. Form is good: 2.20 points a match from the last five. They have had 16 days' rest to AC Milan's 10.

Key players

AC Milan's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Gonçalo Ramos (0.55), Rafael Leão (0.43), Christian Pulisic (0.40).

Availability

2 of AC Milan's top three contributors did not start their last match. 27% of AC Milan's last eleven are new to the club this window. No lineup on record for Benfica, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

AC Milan: 51% possession, 12.4 shots a match, 13.4 faced, 0.24 xG a match from set pieces. Benfica: 59% possession, 23.2 shots a match, 7.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-08 10:52 · team_stats 2026-09-08 06:03 · availability 2026-09-08 11:54 · prediction 2026-09-08 11:44 ·

Benfica are the model's most likely outcome at 51.0%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 10.8%. Confidence 29/100, data quality 45/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

AC Milan are finishing below their chances — 3.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.0 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

LWDLLWLWWD last 10 scored 11 from 14.0 xG conceded 13 from 15.0 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	262351	1.22–1.79	0%	0%	0%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Benfica to win	50.6%	51.6%	30.6%	1.69×	1.94
AC Milan to win	26.2%	27.3%	44.4%	0.61×	3.66
Draw	23.2%	23.5%	25.0%	0.94×	4.26

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Benfica & both teams score	26.1%	26.5%	14.6%	1.81×	3.78
Benfica & not both score	24.5%	21.5%	16.0%	1.35×	4.65
Draw & both teams score	18.3%	18.2%	17.7%	1.03×	5.49
AC Milan & both teams score	14.4%	12.6%	20.1%	0.63×	7.91
AC Milan & not both score	11.8%	12.6%	24.4%	0.52×	7.91
Draw & not both score	4.9%	4.1%	7.3%	0.56×	24.24

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Benfica & over 1.5	41.8%	42.8%	23.1%	1.86×	2.34
Benfica & over 2.5	33.9%	31.8%	18.4%	1.73×	3.15
Benfica & under 3.5	31.0%	31.8%	21.6%	1.47×	3.15
AC Milan & over 1.5	20.2%	21.8%	34.1%	0.64×	4.59
Benfica & over 3.5	19.6%	17.7%	9.0%	1.97×	5.66
AC Milan & over 2.5	16.5%	17.7%	26.9%	0.66×	5.66
AC Milan & under 3.5	17.8%	17.7%	30.3%	0.58×	5.66
Draw & over 1.5	18.3%	17.7%	17.7%	1.00×	5.66
Benfica & under 2.5	16.7%	17.7%	12.2%	1.44×	5.66
Draw & under 2.5	15.7%	17.7%	18.8%	0.94×	5.66
Draw & under 3.5	15.7%	17.7%	18.8%	0.94×	5.66
AC Milan & under 2.5	9.7%	7.6%	17.5%	0.43×	13.17
AC Milan & under 1.5	6.0%	7.6%	10.4%	0.73×	13.17
AC Milan & over 3.5	8.4%	7.6%	14.2%	0.54×	13.17
Draw & over 2.5	7.5%	7.6%	6.2%	1.22×	13.17
Draw & over 3.5	7.5%	7.6%	6.2%	1.22×	13.17
Benfica & under 1.5	8.8%	7.6%	7.5%	1.01×	13.17
Draw & under 1.5	4.9%	4.3%	7.3%	0.60×	22.99

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Benfica (1UP)	66.1%	69.8%	50.4%	1.38×	1.43
AC Milan (1UP)	45.3%	48.1%	59.8%	0.80×	2.08

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Benfica (2UP)	50.6%	55.8%	34.2%	1.63×	1.79
AC Milan (2UP)	26.2%	27.3%	45.2%	0.60×	3.66

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Benfica to win 2nd half	44.0%	40.9%	29.7%	1.38×	2.44
2nd half drawn	32.4%	32.4%	32.7%	0.99×	3.09
AC Milan to win 2nd half	23.6%	22.4%	37.7%	0.59×	4.47

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Benfica (+2.5)	96.6%	96.6%	90.1%	1.07×	1.04
Benfica (+1.5)	89.3%	87.4%	77.7%	1.12×	1.14
Benfica (+0.5)	73.8%	72.8%	55.6%	1.31×	1.37
Benfica (-0.5)	50.6%	52.0%	30.6%	1.70×	1.92
AC Milan (+0.5)	49.4%	48.0%	69.4%	0.69×	2.08
AC Milan (-0.5)	26.2%	27.2%	44.4%	0.61×	3.68
AC Milan (-1.5)	10.7%	12.6%	22.3%	0.57×	7.93
AC Milan (-2.5)	3.4%	3.4%	9.9%	0.34×	29.53

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Benfica to concede	70.6%	75.5%	76.7%	0.98×	1.32
Benfica clean sheet	29.4%	24.5%	23.3%	1.05×	4.09

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Benfica clean sheet in 1st half	59.1%	58.1%	51.8%	1.12×	1.72
Benfica to concede in 1st half	40.9%	41.9%	48.2%	0.87×	2.39

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Benfica over 2.5 corners	92.4%	90.1%	—	—	1.11
Benfica over 3.5 corners	82.1%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Benfica over 4.5 corners	67.5%	67.5%	—	—	1.48
Benfica under 6.5 corners	65.2%	67.5%	—	—	1.48
Benfica over 5.5 corners	50.7%	53.1%	—	—	1.89
Benfica under 5.5 corners	49.3%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Benfica over 6.5 corners	34.8%	32.5%	—	—	3.08
Benfica under 4.5 corners	32.5%	32.5%	—	—	3.08
Benfica under 3.5 corners	17.9%	18.6%	—	—	5.39
Benfica under 2.5 corners	7.6%	9.9%	—	—	10.06

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Benfica under 3.5 goals	89.4%	87.2%	95.7%	0.91×	1.15
Benfica over 0.5 goals	83.2%	82.4%	68.3%	1.21×	1.21
Benfica under 2.5 goals	73.4%	71.3%	87.0%	0.82×	1.40
Benfica over 1.5 goals	53.3%	53.6%	33.7%	1.59×	1.87
Benfica under 1.5 goals	46.7%	46.4%	66.3%	0.70×	2.16
Benfica over 2.5 goals	26.6%	28.7%	13.0%	2.22×	3.48
Benfica under 0.5 goals	16.8%	17.6%	31.7%	0.55×	5.69
Benfica over 3.5 goals	10.6%	12.8%	4.3%	2.95×	7.81

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Benfica under 1.5 in 1st half	83.9%	84.4%	89.4%	0.94×	1.18
Benfica over 0.5 in 1st half	51.1%	52.4%	41.0%	1.28×	1.91
Benfica under 0.5 in 1st half	48.9%	47.6%	59.0%	0.81×	2.10
Benfica over 1.5 in 1st half	16.1%	15.6%	10.6%	1.47×	6.42

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan (away no bet)	53.0%	52.1%	64.0%	0.81×	1.92
Draw (away no bet)	47.0%	47.9%	36.0%	1.33×	2.09

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Benfica even goals	51.4%	53.5%	55.7%	0.96×	1.87
Benfica odd goals	48.6%	46.5%	44.3%	1.05×	2.15

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	81.4%	82.5%	82.7%	1.00×	1.21
Both halves over 1.5 goals	18.6%	17.5%	17.3%	1.01×	5.73

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	69.4%	66.7%	66.2%	1.01×	1.50
Both halves under 1.5 goals	30.6%	33.3%	33.8%	0.99×	3.00

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	61.3%	59.4%	58.6%	1.01×	1.68
Benfica to score 2+ in a row	44.2%	45.2%	28.6%	1.58×	2.21
AC Milan to score 2+ in a row	24.9%	21.2%	36.9%	0.58×	4.71
Either team to score 3+ in a row	23.9%	21.2%	22.9%	0.93×	4.71
Benfica to score 3+ in a row	17.7%	17.4%	9.1%	1.91×	5.76
AC Milan to score 3+ in a row	6.6%	7.8%	14.2%	0.55×	12.82

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Benfica corners (+3.5)	96.5%	95.8%	—	—	1.04
Benfica corners (+2.5)	93.0%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Benfica corners (+1.5)	87.3%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
AC Milan corners (+3.5)	69.7%	65.8%	—	—	1.52
AC Milan corners (+2.5)	57.5%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Benfica corners (-1.5)	55.6%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
AC Milan corners (+1.5)	44.4%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Benfica corners (-2.5)	42.5%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Benfica corners (-3.5)	30.3%	34.2%	—	—	2.92
AC Milan corners (-1.5)	12.7%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
AC Milan corners (-2.5)	7.0%	10.4%	—	—	9.60
AC Milan corners (-3.5)	3.5%	4.2%	—	—	23.58

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	39.6%	33.7%	—	—	2.97
9-11 corners	36.0%	33.7%	—	—	2.97
12+ corners	24.5%	25.6%	—	—	3.91

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	83.9%	80.8%	—	—	1.24
Under 11.5 corners	75.6%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Over 7.5 corners	72.8%	72.6%	—	—	1.38
Under 10.5 corners	64.9%	63.4%	—	—	1.58
Over 8.5 corners	60.4%	63.4%	—	—	1.58
Under 9.5 corners	52.6%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
Over 9.5 corners	47.4%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
Under 8.5 corners	39.6%	36.6%	—	—	2.73
Over 10.5 corners	35.1%	36.6%	—	—	2.73
Under 7.5 corners	27.2%	27.4%	—	—	3.66
Over 11.5 corners	24.5%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Over 12.5 corners	16.1%	19.2%	—	—	5.20

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	10.8%	11.2%	11.5%	0.98×	8.90
0-1	8.8%	7.4%	7.5%	0.99×	13.48
0-2	7.9%	7.4%	4.7%	1.57×	13.48
1-0	6.0%	7.4%	10.4%	0.72×	13.49
1-2	9.6%	7.4%	7.0%	1.05×	13.48
1-3	5.7%	7.4%	2.8%	2.69×	13.49
2-1	6.6%	7.4%	8.8%	0.84×	13.49
2-2	5.9%	7.4%	5.1%	1.45×	13.49
0-0	4.9%	1.7%	7.3%	0.24×	58.10
0-3	4.7%	1.7%	2.3%	0.74×	58.10
0-4	2.1%	1.7%	0.9%	1.94×	58.11
1-4	2.6%	1.7%	1.0%	1.70×	58.10
2-0	3.7%	1.7%	7.2%	0.24×	58.10
2-3	3.5%	1.7%	2.0%	0.84×	58.10
2-4	1.6%	1.7%	0.6%	2.90×	58.11
3-0	1.5%	1.7%	3.9%	0.44×	58.11
3-1	2.7%	1.7%	4.2%	0.41×	58.10
3-2	2.4%	1.7%	2.6%	0.67×	58.10
3-3	1.4%	1.7%	1.0%	1.73×	58.11
3-4	0.6%	1.7%	0.4%	4.66×	58.11
4-0	0.5%	1.7%	1.8%	0.98×	58.11
4-1	0.8%	1.7%	1.7%	1.03×	58.11
4-2	0.7%	1.7%	0.9%	1.88×	58.11
4-3	0.4%	1.7%	0.4%	4.63×	58.11
4-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.1%	16.22×	58.11
Any other score	4.3%	1.7%	4.1%	0.42×	58.10

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Benfica leading at HT (DNB)	60.0%	55.3%	43.3%	1.28×	1.81
AC Milan leading at HT (DNB)	40.0%	44.7%	56.7%	0.79×	2.24

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan or Benfica (12)	76.8%	76.5%	75.0%	1.02×	1.31
Benfica or draw (X2)	73.8%	72.7%	55.6%	1.31×	1.38
AC Milan or draw (1X)	49.4%	48.4%	69.4%	0.70×	2.06

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Benfica or draw at HT	76.3%	76.4%	66.2%	1.15×	1.31
AC Milan or draw at HT	64.5%	62.8%	74.1%	0.85×	1.59
AC Milan or Benfica at HT	59.1%	57.3%	59.7%	0.96×	1.75

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Benfica or draw (1UP)	73.8%	79.6%	63.9%	1.24×	1.26
AC Milan or draw (1UP)	49.4%	52.5%	74.2%	0.71×	1.91

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Benfica or draw in 2nd half	76.4%	77.6%	62.3%	1.24×	1.29
AC Milan or Benfica in 2nd half	67.6%	67.6%	67.3%	1.00×	1.48
AC Milan or draw in 2nd half	56.0%	59.1%	70.3%	0.84×	1.69

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	60.0%	60.0%	58.9%	1.02×	1.67
Neither half drawn	40.0%	40.0%	41.1%	0.97×	2.50

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Benfica (DNB)	65.9%	67.0%	40.8%	1.64×	1.49
AC Milan (DNB)	34.1%	33.0%	59.2%	0.56×	3.03

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Benfica to score first	56.4%	59.4%	42.9%	1.38×	1.68
AC Milan to score first	38.7%	37.3%	51.2%	0.73×	2.68
No goal scored	4.9%	4.5%	5.9%	0.77×	22.02

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	58.8%	55.7%	52.3%	1.06×	1.80
Not both teams to score	41.2%	44.3%	47.7%	0.93×	2.26

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	48.0%	45.2%	40.9%	1.10×	2.21
Not both score & under 2.5	31.3%	34.0%	37.1%	0.92×	2.94
Both score & under 2.5	10.8%	11.9%	11.5%	1.04×	8.41
Not both score & over 2.5	9.9%	8.5%	10.6%	0.80×	11.81

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	81.6%	83.1%	86.0%	0.97×	1.20
Both teams to score 2+	18.4%	16.9%	14.0%	1.21×	5.91

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	67.0%	68.1%	70.2%	0.97×	1.47
Both teams to score in 2nd half	33.0%	31.9%	29.8%	1.07×	3.13

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	53.0%	54.2%	57.8%	0.94×	1.85
Both score 2nd half only	26.1%	25.9%	23.8%	1.09×	3.87
Both score 1st half only	14.0%	11.9%	12.5%	0.96×	8.38
Both score in both halves	6.9%	7.1%	6.0%	1.18×	14.06

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	79.1%	79.6%	81.5%	0.98×	1.26
Both teams to score by HT	20.9%	20.4%	18.5%	1.10×	4.90

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	59.0%	57.6%	58.9%	0.98×	1.74
A half without a goal	41.0%	42.4%	41.1%	1.03×	2.36

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	44.7%	43.4%	45.4%	0.95×	2.31
4-6 goals	32.1%	30.8%	26.9%	1.14×	3.24
0-1 goals	19.8%	19.2%	25.2%	0.76×	5.21
7+ goals	3.4%	2.0%	2.4%	0.82×	50.20

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Benfica to score exactly 1	29.9%	27.4%	34.6%	0.79×	3.65
Benfica to score exactly 2	26.7%	27.4%	20.8%	1.32×	3.66
Benfica to score 3+	26.6%	27.4%	13.0%	2.11×	3.66
Benfica to score exactly 0	16.8%	18.4%	31.7%	0.58×	5.43

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan to score exactly 1	36.0%	36.5%	33.1%	1.10×	2.74
AC Milan to score exactly 0	29.4%	26.4%	23.3%	1.13×	3.79
AC Milan to score exactly 2	22.0%	22.9%	23.9%	0.96×	4.37
AC Milan to score 3+	12.6%	13.2%	19.7%	0.67×	7.58

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	40.9%	42.7%	40.3%	1.06×	2.34
Benfica leading at HT	35.5%	37.3%	25.9%	1.44×	2.69
AC Milan leading at HT	23.7%	23.6%	33.8%	0.70×	4.24

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Benfica -1: 1	49.4%	48.1%	—	—	2.08
Benfica -1: 2	27.9%	26.9%	—	—	3.72
Benfica -1: X	22.7%	23.2%	—	—	4.30

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Benfica (0:1)	73.8%	72.1%	55.6%	1.30×	1.39
Draw (0:1)	15.5%	18.2%	22.2%	0.82×	5.51
AC Milan (0:1)	10.7%	13.2%	22.3%	0.59×	7.60

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Benfica (0:2)	89.3%	86.7%	77.7%	1.12×	1.15
Draw (0:2)	7.2%	7.7%	12.4%	0.63×	12.95
AC Milan (0:2)	3.4%	3.5%	9.9%	0.35×	28.80

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Benfica (0:3)	96.6%	96.7%	90.1%	1.07×	1.04
Draw (0:3)	2.5%	2.6%	5.9%	0.44×	38.97
AC Milan (0:3)	0.9%	2.6%	4.1%	0.63×	39.00

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Benfica (0:4)	99.1%	97.7%	96.0%	1.02×	1.02
AC Milan (0:4)	0.2%	1.4%	1.5%	0.94×	70.62
Draw (0:4)	0.7%	1.4%	2.5%	0.56×	70.60

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan (1:0)	49.4%	49.7%	69.4%	0.72×	2.01
Benfica (1:0)	27.9%	25.3%	13.6%	1.86×	3.96
Draw (1:0)	22.7%	21.9%	17.0%	1.29×	4.56

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan (2:0)	72.1%	74.7%	86.4%	0.86×	1.34
Draw (2:0)	15.4%	15.4%	8.1%	1.89×	6.51
Benfica (2:0)	12.5%	11.5%	5.4%	2.12×	8.67

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	49.8%	48.6%	48.6%	1.00×	2.06
1st half highest scoring	26.8%	26.2%	26.3%	1.00×	3.82
Halves equal	23.4%	23.2%	25.2%	0.92×	4.30

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan to concede	83.2%	82.6%	68.3%	1.21×	1.21
AC Milan clean sheet	16.8%	17.4%	31.7%	0.55×	5.74

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan to concede in 1st half	51.1%	52.3%	41.0%	1.28×	1.91
AC Milan clean sheet in 1st half	48.9%	47.7%	59.0%	0.81×	2.10

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan under 6.5 corners	91.3%	89.3%	—	—	1.12
AC Milan under 5.5 corners	82.2%	80.9%	—	—	1.24
AC Milan over 2.5 corners	72.3%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
AC Milan under 4.5 corners	67.7%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
AC Milan over 3.5 corners	51.7%	52.8%	—	—	1.90
AC Milan under 3.5 corners	48.3%	47.2%	—	—	2.12
AC Milan over 4.5 corners	32.3%	33.3%	—	—	3.00
AC Milan under 2.5 corners	27.7%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
AC Milan over 5.5 corners	17.8%	19.1%	—	—	5.25
AC Milan over 6.5 corners	8.7%	10.7%	—	—	9.34

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan under 3.5 goals	96.4%	96.6%	92.4%	1.05×	1.04
AC Milan under 2.5 goals	87.4%	87.5%	80.3%	1.09×	1.14
AC Milan over 0.5 goals	70.6%	73.2%	76.7%	0.95×	1.37
AC Milan under 1.5 goals	65.4%	68.4%	56.3%	1.21×	1.46
AC Milan over 1.5 goals	34.6%	31.6%	43.7%	0.72×	3.17
AC Milan under 0.5 goals	29.4%	26.8%	23.3%	1.15×	3.73
AC Milan over 2.5 goals	12.6%	12.5%	19.7%	0.64×	7.98
AC Milan over 3.5 goals	3.6%	3.4%	7.6%	0.45×	29.06

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan under 1.5 in 1st half	90.2%	93.8%	85.9%	1.09×	1.07
AC Milan under 0.5 in 1st half	59.1%	58.2%	51.8%	1.12×	1.72
AC Milan over 0.5 in 1st half	40.9%	41.8%	48.2%	0.87×	2.39
AC Milan over 1.5 in 1st half	9.8%	6.2%	14.1%	0.44×	16.02

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Benfica (home no bet)	68.5%	64.7%	55.1%	1.17×	1.55
Draw (home no bet)	31.5%	35.4%	44.9%	0.79×	2.83

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan even goals	54.3%	50.9%	52.8%	0.97×	1.96
AC Milan odd goals	45.7%	49.1%	47.2%	1.04×	2.04

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	28.9%	26.1%	29.3%	0.89×	3.83
HT 0-1	20.7%	22.2%	16.3%	1.36×	4.52
HT 1-0	15.2%	20.0%	20.7%	0.96×	5.00
HT 1-1	10.9%	10.9%	10.2%	1.07×	9.15
HT 0-2	7.4%	8.0%	4.9%	1.64×	12.46
Any other HT score	5.2%	8.0%	4.7%	1.70×	12.49
HT 1-2	3.9%	2.5%	2.8%	0.89×	40.37
HT 2-0	4.0%	2.5%	7.1%	0.35×	40.37
HT 2-1	2.9%	2.5%	3.3%	0.76×	40.42
HT 2-2	1.0%	2.5%	0.9%	2.76×	40.50

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Benfica at HT / Benfica at FT	29.0%	26.3%	17.4%	1.51×	3.80
Draw at HT / Benfica at FT	18.0%	17.2%	11.6%	1.49×	5.82
AC Milan at HT / AC Milan at FT	14.8%	12.2%	25.8%	0.47×	8.19
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	13.2%	12.2%	14.1%	0.86×	8.20
Draw at HT / AC Milan at FT	9.6%	6.4%	14.7%	0.44×	15.51
AC Milan at HT / Draw at FT	5.3%	6.4%	5.1%	1.25×	15.59
Benfica at HT / Draw at FT	4.7%	3.7%	5.6%	0.65×	27.27
AC Milan at HT / Benfica at FT	3.6%	3.7%	3.0%	1.23×	27.30
Benfica at HT / AC Milan at FT	1.8%	3.7%	2.9%	1.26×	27.35

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Benfica to score last	56.4%	57.9%	42.7%	1.35×	1.73
AC Milan to score last	38.7%	38.0%	51.4%	0.74×	2.63
No goal scored	4.9%	4.5%	5.9%	0.77×	22.02

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	95.1%	95.5%	94.1%	1.01×	1.05
Benfica to lead by 1 at any time	66.1%	68.4%	50.4%	1.36×	1.46
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	51.5%	50.8%	48.2%	1.05×	1.97
AC Milan to lead by 1 at any time	45.3%	46.7%	59.8%	0.78×	2.14
Benfica to lead by 2 at any time	35.2%	38.0%	20.3%	1.87×	2.63
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	20.2%	21.3%	19.5%	1.09×	4.70
AC Milan to lead by 2 at any time	16.5%	17.3%	28.2%	0.61×	5.79
Benfica to lead by 3 at any time	15.3%	17.3%	7.4%	2.34×	5.79
AC Milan to lead by 3 at any time	4.9%	2.5%	12.1%	0.21×	39.92

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Benfica most corners	68.2%	64.5%	—	—	1.55
AC Milan most corners	21.0%	25.9%	—	—	3.86
Corners level	10.8%	10.4%	—	—	9.63

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	86.6%	87.1%	86.4%	1.01×	1.15
1-4 goals	76.4%	77.9%	78.0%	1.00×	1.28
2-6 goals	76.8%	77.9%	72.4%	1.08×	1.28
2-5 goals	71.8%	72.1%	68.5%	1.05×	1.39
2-4 goals	61.6%	62.7%	60.1%	1.04×	1.60
1-3 goals	59.6%	58.8%	63.3%	0.93×	1.70
3-6 goals	54.5%	52.9%	49.0%	1.08×	1.89
3-5 goals	49.4%	47.4%	45.1%	1.05×	2.11
2-3 goals	44.7%	43.7%	45.4%	0.96×	2.29
3-4 goals	39.3%	39.0%	36.8%	1.06×	2.56
1-2 goals	37.2%	39.0%	41.2%	0.95×	2.56
4-6 goals	32.1%	34.6%	26.9%	1.28×	2.89
4-5 goals	27.0%	28.5%	23.0%	1.24×	3.50
5-6 goals	15.2%	18.8%	12.3%	1.53×	5.31
7+ goals	3.4%	2.2%	2.4%	0.92×	44.55

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Benfica never behind	49.7%	55.6%	40.2%	1.39×	1.80
AC Milan never behind	28.9%	31.1%	49.6%	0.63×	3.22

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of goals	50.1%	50.0%	49.8%	1.00×	2.00
Odd number of goals	49.9%	50.0%	50.2%	1.00×	2.00

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	54.2%	51.5%	53.7%	0.96×	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	45.8%	48.5%	46.3%	1.05×	2.06

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.5%	51.5%	51.1%	1.01×	1.94
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.5%	48.5%	48.9%	0.99×	2.06

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	95.1%	96.0%	92.7%	1.04×	1.04
Under 5.5 goals	91.5%	92.3%	93.7%	0.99×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	81.4%	81.7%	85.3%	0.96×	1.22
Over 1.5 goals	80.2%	81.7%	74.8%	1.09×	1.22
Under 3.5 goals	64.5%	62.3%	70.6%	0.88×	1.60
Over 2.5 goals	57.9%	57.5%	51.5%	1.12×	1.74
Under 2.5 goals	42.1%	42.5%	48.5%	0.88×	2.35
Over 3.5 goals	35.5%	37.7%	29.4%	1.28×	2.66
Under 1.5 goals	19.8%	18.3%	25.2%	0.73×	5.46
Over 4.5 goals	18.6%	18.3%	14.7%	1.24×	5.46
Over 5.5 goals	8.5%	7.7%	6.3%	1.22×	12.95
Under 0.5 goals	4.9%	4.0%	7.3%	0.54×	25.24

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	96.4%	97.3%	97.5%	1.00×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	90.6%	92.0%	93.1%	0.99×	1.09
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	77.6%	76.2%	82.8%	0.92×	1.31
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	74.5%	71.7%	67.1%	1.07×	1.39
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	54.3%	52.8%	62.3%	0.85×	1.89
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	45.7%	47.2%	37.7%	1.25×	2.12
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	25.5%	28.3%	32.9%	0.86×	3.54
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	22.4%	23.8%	17.2%	1.38×	4.20
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	9.4%	8.0%	6.9%	1.15×	12.55
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	3.6%	2.7%	2.5%	1.08×	36.67

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	87.1%	88.3%	88.4%	1.00×	1.13
Over 0.5 in 1st half	71.1%	73.4%	70.7%	1.04×	1.36
Under 1.5 in 1st half	64.8%	64.3%	66.3%	0.97×	1.56
Over 1.5 in 1st half	35.2%	35.7%	33.7%	1.06×	2.80
Under 0.5 in 1st half	28.9%	26.6%	29.3%	0.91×	3.76
Over 2.5 in 1st half	12.9%	11.7%	11.6%	1.01×	8.57

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	82.9%	82.7%	82.3%	1.00×	1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	73.9%	75.7%	77.5%	0.98×	1.32
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	47.2%	50.1%	50.2%	1.00×	2.00
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	52.8%	49.9%	49.8%	1.00×	2.01
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	26.1%	24.3%	22.5%	1.08×	4.12
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	17.1%	17.3%	17.7%	0.98×	5.76

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan not to score in both halves	79.5%	76.4%	70.5%	1.08×	1.31
Benfica not to score in both halves	66.4%	67.1%	77.6%	0.86×	1.49
Benfica to score in both halves	33.6%	32.9%	22.4%	1.47×	3.04
AC Milan to score in both halves	20.5%	23.6%	29.5%	0.80×	4.23

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	58.8%	57.9%	52.3%	1.11×	1.73
Only Benfica scores	24.5%	21.3%	16.0%	1.33×	4.70
Only AC Milan scores	11.8%	11.1%	24.4%	0.45×	9.04
Neither team scores	4.9%	4.0%	7.3%	0.55×	25.08

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	22.3%	22.3%	23.3%	0.96×	4.48
Exactly 3 goals	22.4%	22.3%	22.1%	1.01×	4.48
Exactly 4 goals	16.9%	17.6%	14.7%	1.20×	5.69
Exactly 1 goals	14.8%	12.3%	17.9%	0.69×	8.12
Exactly 5 goals	10.1%	12.3%	8.4%	1.47×	8.13
6 or more goals	8.5%	7.8%	6.3%	1.22×	12.88
Exactly 0 goals	4.9%	4.1%	7.3%	0.56×	24.65

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	52.8%	49.9%	49.8%	1.00×	2.00
1 goal in 2nd half	30.2%	34.3%	32.5%	1.05×	2.92
No goals in 2nd half	17.1%	16.5%	17.7%	0.93×	6.04

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan not to win both halves	94.4%	92.3%	86.8%	1.06×	1.08
Benfica not to win both halves	84.4%	82.6%	91.8%	0.90×	1.21
Benfica to win both halves	15.6%	17.4%	8.2%	2.13×	5.74
AC Milan to win both halves	5.6%	7.7%	13.2%	0.58×	12.97

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Benfica to win either half	63.9%	64.1%	47.4%	1.35×	1.56
AC Milan to win neither half	58.3%	57.2%	41.7%	1.37×	1.75
AC Milan to win either half	41.7%	42.8%	58.3%	0.73×	2.34
Benfica to win neither half	36.1%	35.9%	52.6%	0.68×	2.79

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan not to win to nil	88.2%	88.1%	75.6%	1.17×	1.14
Benfica not to win to nil	75.5%	78.7%	84.0%	0.94×	1.27
Benfica to win to nil	24.5%	21.3%	16.0%	1.33×	4.69
AC Milan to win to nil	11.8%	11.9%	24.4%	0.49×	8.40

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	23.2%	23.3%	25.0%	0.93×	4.29
Benfica by 1	22.7%	23.3%	17.0%	1.37×	4.29
AC Milan by 1	15.5%	17.3%	22.2%	0.78×	5.78
Benfica by 2	15.4%	17.3%	8.1%	2.13×	5.78
Benfica by 3+	12.5%	11.8%	5.4%	2.18×	8.46
AC Milan by 2	7.2%	7.3%	12.4%	0.59×	13.66
AC Milan by 3+	3.4%	3.0%	9.9%	0.30×	33.81