AC Milan v Bologna — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Wednesday 28 October 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2627

Serie A xG Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

AC Milan

17:30 UTC

Bologna

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 22 Oct, 10:58 · 151h before kick-off

AC Milan win

53.6%

model 54.4%

Draw

23.2%

model 23.6%

Bologna win

23.2%

model 22.0%

542323

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (466 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 11.2%
1-0 11.0%
2-1 9.8%
2-0 9.6%
0-1 6.4%

Goals

Over 2.5	52.2%	Under 2.5	47.8%
BTTS yes	52.7%	BTTS no	47.3%
AC Milan 1+	82.5%	AC Milan 2+	52.1%
Bologna 1+	63.9%	Bologna 2+	27.1%

Expected goals 1.75 – 1.02. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

100/100

Data quality

100/100

Model agreement

100%

★ Best pick

AC Milan to win 2nd half

2nd half 1X2 · usually 35%

60.3% fair odds 1.66

strong signal · 130 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Under 12.5 corners

Corners O/U

83.1% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 4334 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

AC Milan carry the stronger rating, 1671 Elo against 1530.
AC Milan have created 1.98 xG a match over their last five while Bologna have allowed 1.41.
Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.
At home AC Milan average 2.47 xG a match.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

AC Milan have an estimated 53.6% win probability, against 23.2% for the draw and 23.2% for Bologna. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.75 for AC Milan and 1.02 for Bologna.

Why AC Milan

AC Milan carry the stronger rating, 1671 Elo against 1530. AC Milan have created 1.98 xG a match over their last five while Bologna have allowed 1.41. Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five. At home AC Milan average 2.47 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 23.2%. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why Bologna can win

Bologna have created 1.47 xG a match over their last five while AC Milan have allowed 1.59. Away from home Bologna average 1.12 xG a match.

Key players

AC Milan's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Gonçalo Ramos (0.55), Christian Pulisic (0.43), Rafael Leão (0.43). Bologna's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Santiago Castro (0.30), Roberto Piccoli (0.28), Jonathan Rowe (0.27).

Availability

1 of AC Milan's top three contributors did not start their last match. 27% of AC Milan's last eleven are new to the club this window. 2 of Bologna's top three contributors did not start their last match. Bologna changed goalkeeper for their last match. 27% of Bologna's last eleven are new to the club this window.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

AC Milan: 60% possession, 10.2 shots a match, 10.0 faced, 0.59 xG a match from set pieces. Bologna: 45% possession, 11.6 shots a match, 16.0 faced, 0.45 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-22 14:54 · team_stats 2026-10-20 06:04 · availability 2026-10-22 14:58 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

AC Milan are the model's most likely outcome at 53.6%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.2%. Confidence 100/100, data quality 100/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

AC Milan are conceding fewer than expected — 2.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

LWLWWDDWDW last 10 scored 19 from 19.8 xG conceded 13 from 15.9 xG

Bologna have scored 13 from 14.7 expected and conceded 15 from 14.1 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.

WWDLLDLDWL last 10 scored 13 from 14.7 xG conceded 15 from 14.1 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	542422	1.75–1.02	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	542422	1.75–1.04	1-1 11%	53%	53%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan to win	47.3%	47.4%	40.0%	1.18×	2.11
Bologna to win	27.2%	27.9%	33.7%	0.83×	3.58
Draw	25.5%	27.9%	26.4%	1.05×	3.59

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan & not both score	26.1%	25.2%	22.6%	1.11×	3.97
AC Milan & both teams score	21.2%	21.8%	17.5%	1.24×	4.59
Draw & both teams score	18.3%	18.0%	18.6%	0.96×	5.57
Bologna & not both score	14.4%	13.3%	20.6%	0.65×	7.53
Bologna & both teams score	12.9%	13.3%	13.2%	1.00×	7.54
Draw & not both score	7.2%	8.3%	7.9%	1.05×	12.01

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan & over 1.5	36.3%	34.9%	29.9%	1.17×	2.87
AC Milan & under 3.5	33.1%	30.8%	29.6%	1.04×	3.25
AC Milan & over 2.5	27.9%	26.1%	23.3%	1.12×	3.84
Bologna & under 3.5	20.5%	21.6%	26.3%	0.82×	4.63
AC Milan & under 2.5	19.4%	18.0%	16.8%	1.07×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	19.3%	18.0%	19.7%	0.91×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	19.3%	18.0%	19.7%	0.91×	5.56
Bologna & over 1.5	19.4%	18.0%	24.6%	0.73×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	18.3%	18.0%	18.6%	0.97×	5.56
Bologna & over 2.5	15.0%	18.0%	18.1%	0.99×	5.56
AC Milan & over 3.5	14.2%	12.8%	10.6%	1.21×	7.79
Bologna & under 2.5	12.2%	12.8%	15.6%	0.82×	7.79
AC Milan & under 1.5	11.0%	12.8%	10.2%	1.26×	7.79
Bologna & under 1.5	7.9%	7.9%	9.1%	0.87×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	7.2%	7.9%	7.9%	1.00×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	6.2%	7.9%	6.9%	1.16×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	6.2%	7.9%	6.9%	1.16×	12.63
Bologna & over 3.5	6.8%	7.9%	7.5%	1.06×	12.63

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan (1UP)	62.0%	62.8%	55.3%	1.14×	1.59
Bologna (1UP)	44.5%	38.6%	50.5%	0.77×	2.59

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan (2UP)	47.3%	50.1%	41.8%	1.20×	2.00
Bologna (2UP)	27.2%	25.2%	36.2%	0.70×	3.97

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan to win 2nd half	48.3%	46.0%	35.0%	1.31×	2.18
2nd half drawn	32.5%	34.3%	35.0%	0.98×	2.91
Bologna to win 2nd half	19.2%	18.2%	30.2%	0.60×	5.49

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bologna under 1.5 in 2nd half	88.5%	86.9%	85.1%	1.02×	1.15
Bologna under 0.5 in 2nd half	56.1%	54.5%	50.0%	1.09×	1.84
Bologna over 0.5 in 2nd half	43.9%	45.5%	50.0%	0.91×	2.20
Bologna over 1.5 in 2nd half	11.5%	13.1%	14.9%	0.88×	7.61

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan under 1.5 in 2nd half	69.7%	70.8%	81.5%	0.87×	1.41
AC Milan over 0.5 in 2nd half	66.9%	70.7%	53.7%	1.32×	1.42
AC Milan under 0.5 in 2nd half	33.1%	29.3%	46.3%	0.63×	3.41
AC Milan over 1.5 in 2nd half	30.3%	29.2%	18.5%	1.58×	3.43

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bologna (+2.5)	90.3%	92.1%	92.3%	1.00×	1.09
Bologna (+1.5)	76.0%	78.5%	82.5%	0.95×	1.27
AC Milan (+0.5)	72.8%	73.7%	66.3%	1.11×	1.36
Bologna (+0.5)	52.7%	52.4%	60.0%	0.87×	1.91
AC Milan (-0.5)	47.3%	47.6%	40.0%	1.19×	2.10
Bologna (-0.5)	27.2%	26.3%	33.7%	0.78×	3.80
AC Milan (-1.5)	24.0%	21.5%	17.5%	1.23×	4.65
AC Milan (-2.5)	9.7%	7.9%	7.7%	1.03×	12.66

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bologna to concede	78.5%	78.8%	71.6%	1.10×	1.27
Bologna clean sheet	21.5%	21.2%	28.4%	0.75×	4.71

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bologna clean sheet in 1st half	65.1%	70.1%	57.9%	1.21×	1.43
Bologna to concede in 1st half	34.9%	29.9%	42.1%	0.71×	3.35

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bologna to concede in 2nd half	66.9%	65.8%	53.7%	1.23×	1.52
Bologna clean sheet in 2nd half	33.1%	34.2%	46.3%	0.74×	2.93

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bologna under 6.5 corners	90.6%	89.9%	—	—	1.11
Bologna under 5.5 corners	83.5%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Bologna under 4.5 corners	72.7%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Bologna over 2.5 corners	60.9%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Bologna under 3.5 corners	57.6%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Bologna over 3.5 corners	42.4%	42.8%	—	—	2.33
Bologna under 2.5 corners	39.1%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Bologna over 4.5 corners	27.3%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Bologna over 5.5 corners	16.5%	18.6%	—	—	5.38
Bologna over 6.5 corners	9.4%	10.1%	—	—	9.88

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bologna under 3.5 goals	97.4%	97.5%	97.1%	1.00×	1.03
Bologna under 2.5 goals	90.0%	92.3%	88.1%	1.05×	1.08
Bologna under 1.5 goals	69.9%	68.0%	65.0%	1.05×	1.47
Bologna over 0.5 goals	66.7%	68.0%	69.6%	0.98×	1.47
Bologna under 0.5 goals	33.3%	32.0%	30.4%	1.05×	3.12
Bologna over 1.5 goals	30.1%	32.0%	35.0%	0.91×	3.13
Bologna over 2.5 goals	10.0%	7.7%	11.9%	0.65×	13.03
Bologna over 3.5 goals	2.6%	2.5%	2.9%	0.87×	39.90

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bologna under 1.5 in 1st half	90.3%	93.8%	89.9%	1.04×	1.07
Bologna under 0.5 in 1st half	59.3%	62.1%	58.8%	1.06×	1.61
Bologna over 0.5 in 1st half	40.7%	37.9%	41.2%	0.92×	2.64
Bologna over 1.5 in 1st half	9.7%	6.2%	10.1%	0.61×	16.17

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bologna scores equally in both	44.1%	43.5%	43.4%	1.00×	2.30
Bologna scores more in 2nd half	29.8%	26.4%	32.8%	0.80×	3.79
Bologna scores more in 1st half	26.1%	26.2%	23.9%	1.10×	3.81

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan (away no bet)	65.0%	66.3%	60.2%	1.10×	1.51
Draw (away no bet)	35.0%	33.7%	39.8%	0.85×	2.97

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bologna even goals	55.5%	56.9%	55.5%	1.03×	1.76
Bologna odd goals	44.5%	43.1%	44.5%	0.97×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	87.6%	88.0%	87.3%	1.01×	1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals	12.4%	12.0%	12.7%	0.94×	8.31

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	62.5%	57.8%	60.2%	0.96×	1.73
Both halves under 1.5 goals	37.5%	42.2%	39.8%	1.06×	2.37

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	54.2%	51.1%	53.4%	0.96×	1.96
AC Milan to score 2+ in a row	37.6%	36.6%	31.7%	1.15×	2.73
Bologna to score 2+ in a row	22.3%	19.6%	27.8%	0.71×	5.10
Either team to score 3+ in a row	18.9%	16.3%	17.9%	0.91×	6.14
AC Milan to score 3+ in a row	13.6%	12.1%	10.1%	1.20×	8.28
Bologna to score 3+ in a row	5.6%	5.5%	7.9%	0.70×	18.10

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan corners (+3.5)	92.2%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
AC Milan corners (+2.5)	87.1%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
AC Milan corners (+1.5)	79.8%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Bologna corners (+3.5)	74.0%	70.8%	—	—	1.41
Bologna corners (+2.5)	64.1%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Bologna corners (+1.5)	52.8%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
AC Milan corners (-1.5)	47.2%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
AC Milan corners (-2.5)	35.9%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
AC Milan corners (-3.5)	26.0%	29.2%	—	—	3.42
Bologna corners (-1.5)	20.2%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Bologna corners (-2.5)	12.9%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
Bologna corners (-3.5)	7.8%	10.4%	—	—	9.59

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	57.5%	46.5%	—	—	2.15
9-11 corners	25.3%	31.2%	—	—	3.21
12+ corners	17.2%	22.6%	—	—	4.43

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	88.1%	83.1%	—	—	1.20
Under 11.5 corners	82.8%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Under 10.5 corners	76.0%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 9.5 corners	67.5%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Under 8.5 corners	57.5%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 7.5 corners	53.6%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 7.5 corners	46.4%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 8.5 corners	42.5%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Over 9.5 corners	32.5%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Over 10.5 corners	24.0%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
Over 11.5 corners	17.2%	19.3%	—	—	5.18
Over 12.5 corners	11.9%	16.9%	—	—	5.91

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	12.1%	11.5%	11.9%	0.96×	8.72
1-0	11.0%	11.5%	10.2%	1.12×	8.72
2-0	8.4%	7.4%	6.7%	1.10×	13.50
2-1	9.3%	7.4%	9.4%	0.79×	13.50
0-0	7.2%	7.4%	7.9%	0.93×	13.51
0-1	7.9%	7.4%	9.1%	0.81×	13.50
1-2	6.7%	7.4%	7.5%	0.99×	13.51
2-2	5.1%	7.4%	6.0%	1.23×	13.51
3-1	4.8%	1.7%	3.1%	0.55×	58.29
0-2	4.3%	1.7%	6.6%	0.26×	58.29
0-3	1.6%	1.7%	3.5%	0.49×	58.31
0-4	0.4%	1.7%	1.0%	1.78×	58.32
1-3	2.4%	1.7%	2.0%	0.84×	58.31
1-4	0.7%	1.7%	0.7%	2.38×	58.32
2-3	1.9%	1.7%	2.9%	0.59×	58.31
2-4	0.5%	1.7%	0.2%	7.13×	58.32
3-0	4.3%	1.7%	3.6%	0.48×	58.29
3-2	2.6%	1.7%	3.1%	0.55×	58.30
3-3	1.0%	1.7%	0.8%	2.04×	58.31
3-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.2%	7.13×	58.32
4-0	1.7%	1.7%	1.7%	1.02×	58.31
4-1	1.8%	1.7%	1.1%	1.59×	58.31
4-2	1.0%	1.7%	0.2%	7.13×	58.31
4-3	0.4%	1.7%	0.2%	7.13×	58.32
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.2%	7.13×	58.32
Any other score	2.5%	1.7%	2.8%	0.62×	58.30

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan (2nd half DNB)	71.6%	71.0%	53.7%	1.32×	1.41
Bologna (2nd half DNB)	28.4%	29.0%	46.3%	0.63×	3.45

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bologna leading at HT (DNB)	56.1%	57.1%	48.9%	1.17×	1.75
AC Milan leading at HT (DNB)	43.9%	42.9%	51.1%	0.84×	2.33

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan or Bologna (12)	74.5%	72.1%	73.6%	0.98×	1.39
AC Milan or draw (1X)	72.8%	72.1%	66.3%	1.09×	1.39
Bologna or draw (X2)	52.7%	52.6%	60.0%	0.88×	1.90

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bologna or draw at HT	77.0%	79.1%	71.6%	1.10×	1.27
AC Milan or draw at HT	70.7%	75.0%	72.8%	1.03×	1.33
AC Milan or Bologna at HT	52.3%	47.8%	55.4%	0.86×	2.09

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan or draw (1UP)	72.8%	79.7%	71.6%	1.11×	1.26
Bologna or draw (1UP)	52.7%	58.7%	65.5%	0.90×	1.70

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan or draw in 2nd half	80.8%	81.8%	69.8%	1.17×	1.22
AC Milan or Bologna in 2nd half	67.5%	65.7%	65.0%	1.01×	1.52
Bologna or draw in 2nd half	51.7%	54.0%	65.0%	0.83×	1.85

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	64.7%	61.5%	63.5%	0.97×	1.63
Neither half drawn	35.3%	38.5%	36.5%	1.05×	2.60

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan (DNB)	63.4%	62.7%	54.3%	1.15×	1.59
Bologna (DNB)	36.6%	37.3%	45.7%	0.82×	2.68

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan to score first	54.1%	53.4%	48.6%	1.10×	1.87
Bologna to score first	38.8%	32.9%	43.6%	0.75×	3.04
No goal scored	7.2%	7.4%	7.9%	0.94×	13.43

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	52.4%	51.3%	49.2%	1.04×	1.95
Not both teams to score	47.6%	48.7%	50.8%	0.96×	2.05

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	40.3%	41.6%	37.4%	1.11×	2.41
Not both score & under 2.5	38.8%	38.4%	40.1%	0.96×	2.60
Both score & under 2.5	12.1%	12.4%	11.9%	1.04×	8.09
Not both score & over 2.5	8.8%	8.3%	10.8%	0.77×	12.06

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	86.3%	85.6%	86.5%	0.99×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	13.7%	14.4%	13.5%	1.07×	6.94

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	70.6%	73.7%	74.9%	0.98×	1.36
Both teams to score in 2nd half	29.4%	26.3%	25.1%	1.05×	3.80

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	60.6%	65.4%	62.7%	1.04×	1.53
Both score 2nd half only	25.2%	27.3%	20.3%	1.35×	3.66
Both score 1st half only	10.0%	10.6%	12.3%	0.87×	9.40
Both score in both halves	4.2%	5.0%	4.9%	1.01×	20.17

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	85.8%	85.1%	82.9%	1.03×	1.18
Both teams to score by HT	14.2%	14.9%	17.1%	0.87×	6.71

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	50.0%	52.6%	52.8%	1.00×	1.90
A half without a goal	50.0%	47.4%	47.2%	1.00×	2.11

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	46.8%	47.2%	48.4%	0.97×	2.12
0-1 goals	26.1%	26.6%	27.0%	0.98×	3.76
4-6 goals	25.4%	26.6%	23.8%	1.12×	3.76
7+ goals	1.8%	1.8%	1.0%	1.91×	54.32

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bologna to score exactly 1	36.6%	35.9%	34.7%	1.03×	2.78
Bologna to score exactly 0	33.3%	33.8%	30.4%	1.11×	2.96
Bologna to score exactly 2	20.2%	22.3%	23.2%	0.96×	4.49
Bologna to score 3+	10.0%	8.6%	11.9%	0.72×	11.67

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan to score exactly 1	33.1%	32.6%	32.1%	1.01×	3.07
AC Milan to score exactly 2	25.4%	26.5%	24.8%	1.07×	3.77
AC Milan to score exactly 0	21.5%	23.3%	28.4%	0.82×	4.29
AC Milan to score 3+	20.0%	18.8%	15.0%	1.25×	5.33

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	47.7%	52.2%	44.6%	1.17×	1.92
Bologna leading at HT	29.3%	25.0%	27.2%	0.92×	4.01
AC Milan leading at HT	23.0%	20.9%	28.4%	0.74×	4.78

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan -1: 2	52.7%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
AC Milan -1: 1	24.0%	23.5%	—	—	4.25
AC Milan -1: X	23.3%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bologna (0:1)	52.7%	51.3%	60.0%	0.86×	1.95
AC Milan (0:1)	24.0%	24.2%	17.5%	1.38×	4.13
Draw (0:1)	23.3%	24.2%	22.6%	1.07×	4.13

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bologna (0:2)	76.0%	79.3%	82.5%	0.96×	1.26
Draw (0:2)	14.3%	11.0%	10.0%	1.10×	9.09
AC Milan (0:2)	9.7%	7.7%	7.7%	1.00×	13.02

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bologna (0:3)	90.3%	92.7%	92.3%	1.00×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	6.5%	5.8%	4.7%	1.24×	17.22
AC Milan (0:3)	3.2%	2.4%	3.1%	0.76×	42.05

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bologna (0:4)	96.8%	98.1%	96.9%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	2.3%	1.2%	2.3%	0.54×	81.85
AC Milan (0:4)	0.9%	1.2%	1.0%	1.27×	82.01

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan (1:0)	72.8%	72.4%	66.3%	1.09×	1.38
Draw (1:0)	16.7%	17.1%	19.4%	0.88×	5.85
Bologna (1:0)	10.5%	12.7%	14.4%	0.88×	7.88

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan (2:0)	89.5%	88.5%	85.6%	1.03×	1.13
Draw (2:0)	7.4%	6.4%	8.7%	0.74×	15.69
Bologna (2:0)	3.2%	2.3%	5.9%	0.39×	43.63

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	54.6%	50.3%	46.2%	1.09×	1.99
Halves equal	24.2%	24.4%	26.9%	0.91×	4.10
1st half highest scoring	21.3%	24.3%	27.0%	0.90×	4.11

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan to concede	66.7%	66.7%	69.6%	0.96×	1.50
AC Milan clean sheet	33.3%	33.3%	30.4%	1.10×	3.00

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan clean sheet in 1st half	59.3%	62.1%	58.8%	1.06×	1.61
AC Milan to concede in 1st half	40.7%	37.9%	41.2%	0.92×	2.64

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan clean sheet in 2nd half	56.1%	54.8%	50.0%	1.10×	1.83
AC Milan to concede in 2nd half	43.9%	45.2%	50.0%	0.90×	2.21

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan over 2.5 corners	78.1%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
AC Milan under 6.5 corners	75.9%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
AC Milan under 5.5 corners	65.0%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
AC Milan over 3.5 corners	63.4%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
AC Milan under 4.5 corners	51.6%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
AC Milan over 4.5 corners	48.4%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
AC Milan under 3.5 corners	36.6%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
AC Milan over 5.5 corners	35.0%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
AC Milan over 6.5 corners	24.1%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
AC Milan under 2.5 corners	21.9%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan under 3.5 goals	93.0%	92.2%	95.3%	0.97×	1.08
AC Milan under 2.5 goals	80.0%	82.2%	85.0%	0.97×	1.22
AC Milan over 0.5 goals	78.5%	77.7%	71.6%	1.09×	1.29
AC Milan under 1.5 goals	54.6%	53.2%	60.3%	0.88×	1.88
AC Milan over 1.5 goals	45.4%	46.8%	39.7%	1.18×	2.14
AC Milan under 0.5 goals	21.5%	22.3%	28.4%	0.78×	4.49
AC Milan over 2.5 goals	20.0%	17.8%	15.0%	1.19×	5.62
AC Milan over 3.5 goals	7.0%	7.8%	4.7%	1.66×	12.89

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan under 1.5 in 1st half	93.0%	94.8%	89.3%	1.06×	1.06
AC Milan under 0.5 in 1st half	65.1%	68.6%	57.9%	1.18×	1.46
AC Milan over 0.5 in 1st half	34.9%	31.4%	42.1%	0.75×	3.18
AC Milan over 1.5 in 1st half	7.0%	5.2%	10.7%	0.49×	19.26

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan scores more in 2nd half	52.6%	57.9%	36.2%	1.60×	1.73
AC Milan scores equally in both	33.1%	33.0%	41.7%	0.79×	3.03
AC Milan scores more in 1st half	14.3%	14.3%	22.2%	0.64×	6.98

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bologna (home no bet)	51.7%	51.4%	56.0%	0.92×	1.95
Draw (home no bet)	48.3%	48.6%	44.0%	1.11×	2.06

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan even goals	52.3%	50.7%	56.3%	0.90×	1.97
AC Milan odd goals	47.7%	49.3%	43.8%	1.13×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	38.6%	39.5%	33.8%	1.17×	2.53
HT 0-1	20.2%	24.4%	18.1%	1.34×	4.10
HT 1-0	16.6%	18.6%	18.4%	1.01×	5.39
HT 1-1	8.7%	6.9%	10.3%	0.67×	14.47
HT 0-2	5.3%	6.9%	5.4%	1.27×	14.52
HT 2-0	3.6%	2.4%	5.8%	0.41×	42.05
Any other HT score	2.6%	2.4%	3.4%	0.71×	42.11
HT 1-2	2.3%	2.4%	2.6%	0.90×	42.13
HT 2-1	1.9%	2.4%	2.4%	0.99×	42.16
HT 2-2	0.5%	2.4%	0.7%	3.28×	42.25

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT / AC Milan at FT	23.1%	21.8%	15.9%	1.38×	4.58
AC Milan at HT / AC Milan at FT	19.2%	16.7%	22.0%	0.76×	5.97
Bologna at HT / Bologna at FT	17.2%	16.7%	19.1%	0.87×	5.98
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	15.5%	16.7%	16.1%	1.04×	5.99
Draw at HT / Bologna at FT	9.2%	6.0%	12.9%	0.47×	16.57
Bologna at HT / Draw at FT	7.1%	6.0%	5.9%	1.02×	16.63
Bologna at HT / AC Milan at FT	5.0%	6.0%	2.4%	2.49×	16.69
AC Milan at HT / Draw at FT	2.8%	3.5%	4.7%	0.74×	28.66
AC Milan at HT / Bologna at FT	0.9%	3.5%	1.9%	1.81×	28.73

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan to score last	54.1%	52.2%	48.2%	1.08×	1.92
Bologna to score last	38.8%	38.7%	44.0%	0.88×	2.58
No goal scored	7.2%	7.4%	7.9%	0.94×	13.43

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	92.8%	92.7%	92.1%	1.01×	1.08
AC Milan to lead by 1 at any time	62.0%	61.4%	55.3%	1.11×	1.63
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	45.4%	44.5%	43.6%	1.02×	2.25
Bologna to lead by 1 at any time	44.5%	39.2%	50.5%	0.78×	2.55
AC Milan to lead by 2 at any time	30.1%	29.8%	23.9%	1.24×	3.36
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	16.1%	14.9%	15.1%	0.99×	6.70
Bologna to lead by 2 at any time	15.5%	14.9%	20.2%	0.74×	6.71
AC Milan to lead by 3 at any time	11.7%	10.4%	8.8%	1.19×	9.58
Bologna to lead by 3 at any time	4.3%	1.7%	6.5%	0.25×	60.54

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan most corners	59.0%	55.7%	—	—	1.80
Bologna most corners	29.8%	31.2%	—	—	3.21
Corners level	11.2%	10.4%	—	—	9.58

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.7%	87.4%	89.2%	0.98×	1.14
1-4 goals	80.1%	83.4%	80.8%	1.03×	1.20
2-6 goals	72.1%	72.4%	72.1%	1.00×	1.38
2-5 goals	68.8%	68.8%	70.1%	0.98×	1.45
1-3 goals	65.7%	68.8%	67.5%	1.02×	1.45
2-4 goals	61.2%	63.3%	61.7%	1.03×	1.58
3-6 goals	47.2%	48.5%	47.2%	1.03×	2.06
2-3 goals	46.8%	48.5%	48.4%	1.00×	2.06
1-2 goals	43.8%	43.6%	44.1%	0.99×	2.29
3-5 goals	43.9%	43.6%	45.2%	0.96×	2.29
3-4 goals	36.3%	39.2%	36.8%	1.07×	2.55
4-6 goals	25.4%	30.2%	23.8%	1.27×	3.31
4-5 goals	22.0%	24.5%	21.8%	1.13×	4.08
5-6 goals	10.9%	14.8%	10.6%	1.40×	6.76
7+ goals	1.8%	2.6%	1.0%	2.66×	39.14

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan never behind	48.4%	56.7%	49.5%	1.14×	1.76
Bologna never behind	30.9%	36.1%	44.7%	0.81×	2.77

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.7%	50.9%	51.6%	0.99×	1.96
Even number of goals	50.3%	49.1%	48.4%	1.01×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	57.4%	57.7%	56.6%	1.02×	1.73
Odd goals in 1st half	42.6%	42.3%	43.4%	0.98×	2.36

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.7%	51.9%	50.6%	1.03×	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.3%	48.1%	49.4%	0.97×	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	94.8%	92.3%	97.0%	0.95×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	92.8%	92.3%	92.1%	1.00×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	87.2%	87.6%	88.6%	0.99×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	73.9%	72.5%	73.0%	0.99×	1.38
Under 3.5 goals	72.8%	72.5%	75.4%	0.96×	1.38
Under 2.5 goals	50.9%	52.5%	51.9%	1.01×	1.91
Over 2.5 goals	49.1%	47.5%	48.1%	0.99×	2.11
Over 3.5 goals	27.2%	27.5%	24.6%	1.12×	3.63
Under 1.5 goals	26.1%	27.5%	27.0%	1.02×	3.63
Over 4.5 goals	12.8%	12.4%	11.4%	1.09×	8.06
Under 0.5 goals	7.2%	7.7%	7.9%	0.97×	12.94
Over 5.5 goals	5.2%	7.7%	3.0%	2.57×	12.95

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	98.1%	97.2%	99.0%	0.98×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	94.4%	92.4%	96.7%	0.96×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	85.1%	86.7%	86.8%	1.00×	1.15
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	65.3%	67.4%	64.0%	1.05×	1.48
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	65.2%	67.4%	67.8%	0.99×	1.48
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	34.8%	32.6%	32.2%	1.01×	3.07
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	34.7%	32.6%	36.0%	0.90×	3.07
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	14.9%	13.3%	13.2%	1.01×	7.52
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	5.6%	7.6%	3.3%	2.31×	13.17
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	1.9%	2.8%	1.0%	2.86×	35.60

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	92.8%	92.7%	91.2%	1.02×	1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half	75.3%	78.0%	70.1%	1.11×	1.28
Over 0.5 in 1st half	61.4%	63.2%	66.2%	0.95×	1.58
Under 0.5 in 1st half	38.6%	36.8%	33.8%	1.09×	2.72
Over 1.5 in 1st half	24.7%	22.0%	29.9%	0.73×	4.56
Over 2.5 in 1st half	7.2%	7.4%	8.8%	0.84×	13.61

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	81.4%	83.2%	78.6%	1.06×	1.20
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	76.2%	79.3%	82.5%	0.96×	1.26
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	50.2%	53.1%	43.0%	1.23×	1.88
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	49.8%	46.9%	57.0%	0.82×	2.13
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	23.8%	20.7%	17.5%	1.18×	4.84
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	18.6%	16.8%	21.4%	0.79×	5.94

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bologna not to score in both halves	82.1%	84.3%	78.4%	1.08×	1.19
AC Milan not to score in both halves	76.6%	78.4%	75.8%	1.03×	1.28
AC Milan to score in both halves	23.4%	21.6%	24.2%	0.89×	4.63
Bologna to score in both halves	17.9%	15.7%	21.6%	0.72×	6.38

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	52.4%	53.8%	49.2%	1.10×	1.86
Only AC Milan scores	26.1%	26.0%	22.6%	1.15×	3.84
Only Bologna scores	14.4%	11.0%	20.6%	0.54×	9.05
Neither team scores	7.2%	7.1%	7.9%	0.90×	14.04

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	24.9%	22.6%	25.0%	0.90×	4.43
Exactly 3 goals	21.9%	22.6%	23.6%	0.96×	4.43
Exactly 1 goals	18.9%	17.5%	19.2%	0.91×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	14.4%	12.1%	13.3%	0.91×	8.24
Exactly 5 goals	7.6%	7.6%	8.5%	0.89×	13.13
Exactly 0 goals	7.2%	7.6%	7.9%	0.96×	13.14
6 or more goals	5.2%	7.6%	3.0%	2.53×	13.14

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
No goals in 1st half	38.6%	37.4%	33.8%	1.11×	2.67
1 goal in 1st half	36.7%	37.4%	36.4%	1.03×	2.67
2 goals in 1st half	17.5%	15.6%	21.3%	0.74×	6.39
3+ goals in 1st half	7.2%	7.4%	8.8%	0.84×	13.61

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	50.2%	51.2%	43.0%	1.19×	1.95
1 goal in 2nd half	31.3%	33.8%	35.7%	0.95×	2.96
No goals in 2nd half	18.6%	16.5%	21.4%	0.77×	6.06

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bologna not to win both halves	94.4%	94.2%	91.1%	1.03×	1.06
AC Milan not to win both halves	88.9%	87.9%	89.9%	0.98×	1.14
AC Milan to win both halves	11.1%	12.1%	10.1%	1.20×	8.28
Bologna to win both halves	5.6%	5.8%	8.9%	0.66×	17.11

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan to win either half	60.2%	65.0%	53.2%	1.22×	1.54
Bologna to win neither half	57.1%	59.1%	51.6%	1.15×	1.69
Bologna to win either half	42.9%	41.0%	48.4%	0.85×	2.44
AC Milan to win neither half	39.8%	35.0%	46.8%	0.75×	2.86

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bologna not to win to nil	85.6%	88.1%	79.4%	1.11×	1.14
AC Milan not to win to nil	73.9%	75.4%	77.4%	0.97×	1.33
AC Milan to win to nil	26.1%	24.6%	22.6%	1.09×	4.06
Bologna to win to nil	14.4%	11.9%	20.6%	0.58×	8.40

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	25.5%	27.9%	26.4%	1.05×	3.59
AC Milan by 1	23.3%	24.1%	22.6%	1.07×	4.15
Bologna by 1	16.7%	17.0%	19.4%	0.88×	5.87
AC Milan by 2	14.3%	11.8%	10.0%	1.18×	8.50
AC Milan by 3+	9.7%	7.2%	7.7%	0.94×	13.90
Bologna by 2	7.4%	7.2%	8.7%	0.83×	13.91
Bologna by 3+	3.2%	2.7%	5.9%	0.46×	36.81