AC Milan v Como — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 15 March 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2425
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
9 – 15
On target
3 – 6
Shots in box
8 – 7
xG per shot
0.19 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
0.00 – 0.44
Goals − xG
+0.27 – -0.36
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.AC Milan win
52.2%
Draw
28.2%
Como win
19.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
AC Milan are finishing below their chances — 3.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.0 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWDLLWLWWD last 10
scored 11
from 14.0 xG
conceded 13
from 15.0 xG
Como have scored 19 from 18.8 expected and conceded 10 from 10.2 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LLWDWWWDWW last 10
scored 19
from 18.8 xG
conceded 10
from 10.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.73–1.00 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
AC Milan 1.73 xGComo 1.36 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
AC Milan attacking right
Como attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 AC Milan |
Theo Hernández | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Mike Maignan |
| 3' |
AC Milan |
Yunus Musah | 0.51 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Theo Hernández |
| 8' |
 Como |
Nico Paz | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 11' |
Como |
Nico Paz | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Gabriel Strefezza |
| 18' |
Como |
Gabriel Strefezza | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nico Paz |
| 31' |
AC Milan |
Rafael Leão | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Christian Pulisic |
| 32' |
Como |
Lucas Da Cunha | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Nico Paz |
| 32' |
Como |
Nico Paz | 0.40 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Assane Diao |
| 36' |
Como |
Patrick Cutrone | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Maxence Caqueret |
| 37' |
AC Milan |
Santiago Giménez | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Kyle Walker |
| 39' |
AC Milan |
Christian Pulisic | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Rafael Leão |
| 41' |
Como |
Álex Valle | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Maxence Caqueret |
| 43' |
Como |
Marc-Oliver Kempf | 0.37 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Maxence Caqueret |
| 52' |
AC Milan |
Christian Pulisic | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Tijjani Reijnders |
| 53' |
Como |
Nico Paz | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Maxence Caqueret |
| 55' |
Como |
Lucas Da Cunha | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Gabriel Strefezza |
| 56' |
Como |
Maxence Caqueret | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Lucas Da Cunha |
| 59' |
Como |
Patrick Cutrone | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Maxence Caqueret |
| 68' |
AC Milan |
Tijjani Reijnders | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Christian Pulisic |
| 71' |
Como |
Patrick Cutrone | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Gabriel Strefezza |
| 74' |
AC Milan |
Tijjani Reijnders | 0.32 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Tammy Abraham |
| 84' |
AC Milan |
Tijjani Reijnders | 0.47 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Tammy Abraham |
| 85' |
Como |
Nico Paz | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Assane Diao |
| 86' |
Como |
Assane Diao | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ignace Van der Brempt |
Players
AC Milan
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tijjani Reijnders AMC | 90 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0.90 | 0.10 | 1.03 |
| Christian Pulisic AMR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.13 | 0.21 | 0.34 |
| Matteo Gabbia DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.54 |
| Kyle Walker DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1.08 |
| Malick Thiaw DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.93 |
| Mike Maignan GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.06 |
| Rafael Leão AML | 79 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.03 | 0.74 |
| Santiago Giménez FW | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.57 |
| Yunus Musah DMC | 53 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.51 | 0.00 | 0.61 |
| Theo Hernández DL | 47 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.51 | 0.56 |
| Warren Bondo DMC | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.54 |
| Alejandro Jiménez Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Youssouf Fofana Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| João Félix Sub | 37 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.79 |
| Tammy Abraham Sub | 21 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.79 | 0.90 |
| Ruben Loftus-Cheek Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Como
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Paz AMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0.57 | 0.08 | 0.75 |
| Álex Valle DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.66 |
| Gabriel Strefezza AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.02 | 0.14 | 0.23 |
| Assane Diao AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.41 | 0.64 |
| Edoardo Goldaniga DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Ivan Smolcic DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Jean Butez GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Lucas Da Cunha DMC | 82 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.03 | 0.18 |
| Patrick Cutrone FW | 73 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.21 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Maxence Caqueret DMC | 64 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0.03 | 0.63 | 0.36 |
| Marc-Oliver Kempf DC | 47 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.37 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Ignace Van der Brempt Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.12 |
| Máximo Perrone Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Tasos Douvikas Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alberto Dossena Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Dele Alli Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |