AC Milan v Frosinone — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 22 November 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2627

Serie A xG Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

AC Milan

14:00 UTC

Frosinone

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 23 Oct, 10:58 · 723h before kick-off

AC Milan win

55.7%

model 58.0%

Draw

22.1%

model 21.0%

Frosinone win

22.1%

model 21.0%

562222

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (346 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

2-1 9.8%
1-1 9.5%
2-0 8.4%
1-0 8.2%
3-1 6.8%

Goals

Over 2.5	62.6%	Under 2.5	37.4%
BTTS yes	60.1%	BTTS no	39.9%
AC Milan 1+	87.3%	AC Milan 2+	61.1%
Frosinone 1+	68.9%	Frosinone 2+	32.6%

Expected goals 2.06 – 1.17. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

87/100

Data quality

90/100

Model agreement

92%

★ Best pick

AC Milan to score 2+ in a row

Consecutive goals · usually 32%

52.8% fair odds 1.89

strong signal · 783 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Under 2.5 in 1st half

Over/Under 1HT · usually 91%

83.8% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 387 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.
At home AC Milan average 2.47 xG a match.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

AC Milan have an estimated 55.7% win probability, against 22.1% for Frosinone and 22.1% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.06 for AC Milan and 1.17 for Frosinone.

Why AC Milan

Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five. At home AC Milan average 2.47 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 22.1%. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why Frosinone can win

Frosinone carry the stronger rating, 1701 Elo against 1671. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: AC Milan were missing 0.96 expected goal involvements a match against 0.10.

Key players

AC Milan's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Gonçalo Ramos (0.55), Christian Pulisic (0.43), Rafael Leão (0.43). Frosinone's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Antonio Raimondo (0.52), Giorgi Kvernadze (0.39), Giacomo Calo (0.26).

Availability

1 of AC Milan's top three contributors did not start their last match. 27% of AC Milan's last eleven are new to the club this window.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

AC Milan: 60% possession, 10.2 shots a match, 10.0 faced, 0.59 xG a match from set pieces. Frosinone: 44% possession, 19.6 shots a match, 18.4 faced, 0.36 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-23 14:52 · team_stats 2026-10-20 06:04 · availability 2026-10-23 14:58 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

AC Milan are the model's most likely outcome at 55.7%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-1 at 9.8%. Confidence 87/100, data quality 90/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

AC Milan are conceding fewer than expected — 2.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

LWLWWDDWDW last 10 scored 19 from 19.8 xG conceded 13 from 15.9 xG

Frosinone are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 7.4 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

LWWDWLW last 7 scored 13 from 11.9 xG conceded 9 from 16.4 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	582121	2.06–1.17	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	661716	2.57–1.23	2-1 9%	73%	65%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan to win	64.1%	58.3%	40.1%	1.45×	1.72
Draw	19.2%	19.4%	26.4%	0.73×	5.15
Frosinone to win	16.7%	19.4%	33.6%	0.58×	5.16

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan & both teams score	33.2%	29.6%	17.6%	1.68×	3.38
AC Milan & not both score	31.0%	29.6%	22.6%	1.31×	3.38
Draw & both teams score	15.5%	18.0%	18.6%	0.97×	5.57
Frosinone & both teams score	9.8%	8.3%	13.2%	0.63×	12.00
Frosinone & not both score	6.9%	8.3%	20.5%	0.41×	12.01
Draw & not both score	3.7%	4.9%	7.9%	0.61×	20.59

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan & over 1.5	55.9%	54.9%	30.0%	1.83×	1.82
AC Milan & over 2.5	46.7%	45.0%	23.4%	1.92×	2.22
AC Milan & under 3.5	34.2%	30.8%	29.5%	1.04×	3.25
AC Milan & over 3.5	29.9%	26.1%	10.7%	2.44×	3.84
AC Milan & under 2.5	17.5%	18.0%	16.8%	1.07×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	15.5%	18.0%	18.6%	0.97×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	12.4%	12.8%	19.7%	0.65×	7.79
Draw & under 3.5	12.4%	12.8%	19.7%	0.65×	7.79
Frosinone & over 1.5	12.8%	12.8%	24.6%	0.52×	7.79
Frosinone & under 3.5	11.3%	12.8%	26.3%	0.49×	7.79
Frosinone & over 2.5	10.7%	12.8%	18.1%	0.71×	7.79
AC Milan & under 1.5	8.2%	7.9%	10.2%	0.78×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	6.8%	7.9%	6.8%	1.16×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	6.8%	7.9%	6.8%	1.16×	12.63
Frosinone & under 2.5	5.9%	7.9%	15.6%	0.51×	12.63
Frosinone & over 3.5	5.4%	7.9%	7.4%	1.06×	12.63
Frosinone & under 1.5	3.9%	4.8%	9.1%	0.53×	20.81
Draw & under 1.5	3.7%	4.8%	7.9%	0.61×	20.81

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan (1UP)	76.7%	78.7%	55.3%	1.42×	1.27
Frosinone (1UP)	36.2%	34.0%	50.4%	0.67×	2.95

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan (2UP)	64.1%	68.7%	41.9%	1.64×	1.46
Frosinone (2UP)	16.7%	17.2%	36.1%	0.48×	5.82

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan to win 2nd half	59.8%	62.2%	34.9%	1.78×	1.61
2nd half drawn	28.8%	25.9%	35.1%	0.74×	3.86
Frosinone to win 2nd half	11.4%	11.1%	30.1%	0.37×	9.03

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Frosinone under 1.5 in 2nd half	93.7%	91.9%	85.0%	1.08×	1.09
Frosinone under 0.5 in 2nd half	66.7%	70.0%	49.9%	1.40×	1.43
Frosinone over 0.5 in 2nd half	33.3%	30.0%	50.1%	0.60×	3.33
Frosinone over 1.5 in 2nd half	6.3%	8.1%	15.0%	0.54×	12.41

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan over 0.5 in 2nd half	73.1%	74.0%	53.8%	1.38×	1.35
AC Milan under 1.5 in 2nd half	62.2%	63.3%	81.4%	0.78×	1.58
AC Milan over 1.5 in 2nd half	37.8%	36.7%	18.6%	1.97×	2.73
AC Milan under 0.5 in 2nd half	26.9%	26.0%	46.2%	0.56×	3.85

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan (+0.5)	83.3%	82.5%	66.4%	1.24×	1.21
Frosinone (+2.5)	77.8%	78.5%	92.3%	0.85×	1.27
AC Milan (-0.5)	64.1%	63.0%	40.1%	1.57×	1.59
Frosinone (+1.5)	58.7%	57.0%	82.5%	0.69×	1.75
AC Milan (-1.5)	41.3%	43.0%	17.5%	2.45×	2.33
Frosinone (+0.5)	35.9%	37.0%	59.9%	0.62×	2.70
AC Milan (-2.5)	22.2%	21.5%	7.7%	2.80×	4.65
Frosinone (-0.5)	16.7%	17.5%	33.6%	0.52×	5.73

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Frosinone to concede	89.4%	86.3%	71.7%	1.20×	1.16
Frosinone clean sheet	10.6%	13.7%	28.3%	0.48×	7.32

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Frosinone to concede in 1st half	60.7%	64.8%	42.1%	1.54×	1.54
Frosinone clean sheet in 1st half	39.3%	35.2%	57.9%	0.61×	2.84

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Frosinone to concede in 2nd half	73.1%	71.1%	53.8%	1.32×	1.41
Frosinone clean sheet in 2nd half	26.9%	28.9%	46.2%	0.63×	3.46

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Frosinone under 6.5 corners	82.6%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Frosinone under 5.5 corners	73.0%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Frosinone over 2.5 corners	72.0%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Frosinone under 4.5 corners	60.2%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Frosinone over 3.5 corners	55.4%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Frosinone under 3.5 corners	44.6%	42.8%	—	—	2.33
Frosinone over 4.5 corners	39.8%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Frosinone under 2.5 corners	28.0%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Frosinone over 5.5 corners	27.0%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Frosinone over 6.5 corners	17.4%	18.6%	—	—	5.38

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Frosinone under 3.5 goals	97.7%	97.5%	97.1%	1.00×	1.03
Frosinone under 2.5 goals	90.8%	92.3%	88.1%	1.05×	1.08
Frosinone under 1.5 goals	71.3%	71.9%	64.9%	1.11×	1.39
Frosinone over 0.5 goals	65.4%	68.0%	69.6%	0.98×	1.47
Frosinone under 0.5 goals	34.6%	32.0%	30.4%	1.05×	3.12
Frosinone over 1.5 goals	28.7%	28.1%	35.1%	0.80×	3.56
Frosinone over 2.5 goals	9.2%	7.7%	11.9%	0.65×	13.04
Frosinone over 3.5 goals	2.3%	2.5%	2.9%	0.87×	39.92

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Frosinone under 1.5 in 1st half	86.0%	89.1%	89.9%	0.99×	1.12
Frosinone under 0.5 in 1st half	51.9%	55.6%	58.8%	0.95×	1.80
Frosinone over 0.5 in 1st half	48.1%	44.4%	41.2%	1.08×	2.25
Frosinone over 1.5 in 1st half	14.0%	10.9%	10.1%	1.08×	9.17

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Frosinone scores equally in both	44.5%	43.8%	43.3%	1.01×	2.29
Frosinone scores more in 1st half	36.0%	37.3%	23.9%	1.56×	2.68
Frosinone scores more in 2nd half	19.6%	17.9%	32.9%	0.54×	5.59

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan (away no bet)	77.0%	73.6%	60.3%	1.22×	1.36
Draw (away no bet)	23.0%	26.4%	39.7%	0.67×	3.78

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Frosinone even goals	56.0%	56.9%	55.6%	1.02×	1.76
Frosinone odd goals	44.0%	43.1%	44.4%	0.97×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	75.8%	81.1%	87.3%	0.93×	1.23
Both halves over 1.5 goals	24.2%	18.9%	12.7%	1.49×	5.28

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	74.2%	67.5%	60.3%	1.12×	1.48
Both halves under 1.5 goals	25.8%	32.5%	39.7%	0.82×	3.08

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	68.2%	62.4%	53.4%	1.17×	1.60
AC Milan to score 2+ in a row	57.5%	55.2%	31.8%	1.74×	1.81
Either team to score 3+ in a row	32.1%	29.2%	17.9%	1.63×	3.43
AC Milan to score 3+ in a row	28.5%	25.2%	10.1%	2.50×	3.97
Frosinone to score 2+ in a row	18.7%	16.3%	27.7%	0.59×	6.14
Frosinone to score 3+ in a row	4.0%	2.6%	7.9%	0.33×	38.28

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan corners (+3.5)	87.5%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
AC Milan corners (+2.5)	81.2%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Frosinone corners (+3.5)	77.2%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
AC Milan corners (+1.5)	73.1%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Frosinone corners (+2.5)	68.6%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Frosinone corners (+1.5)	58.5%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
AC Milan corners (-1.5)	41.5%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
AC Milan corners (-2.5)	31.4%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Frosinone corners (-1.5)	26.9%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
AC Milan corners (-3.5)	22.8%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Frosinone corners (-2.5)	18.8%	20.2%	—	—	4.94
Frosinone corners (-3.5)	12.5%	15.5%	—	—	6.45

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	46.9%	41.8%	—	—	2.39
9-11 corners	27.8%	31.2%	—	—	3.21
12+ corners	25.3%	31.2%	—	—	3.21

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	81.4%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Under 11.5 corners	74.7%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 10.5 corners	66.6%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Over 7.5 corners	63.8%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Under 9.5 corners	57.2%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 8.5 corners	53.1%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 8.5 corners	46.9%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 9.5 corners	42.8%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Under 7.5 corners	36.2%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 10.5 corners	33.4%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Over 11.5 corners	25.3%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 12.5 corners	18.6%	19.3%	—	—	5.18

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	8.7%	7.4%	11.9%	0.62×	13.51
2-0	9.2%	7.4%	6.7%	1.10×	13.50
2-1	9.8%	7.4%	9.4%	0.79×	13.50
1-0	8.2%	7.4%	10.2%	0.73×	13.51
3-0	6.9%	7.4%	3.6%	2.06×	13.51
3-1	7.3%	7.4%	3.1%	2.37×	13.51
Any other score	8.2%	7.4%	2.8%	2.68×	13.51
2-2	5.2%	7.4%	6.0%	1.23×	13.51
0-0	3.7%	1.7%	7.9%	0.22×	58.30
0-1	3.9%	1.7%	9.1%	0.19×	58.30
0-2	2.1%	1.7%	6.6%	0.26×	58.31
0-3	0.7%	1.7%	3.5%	0.49×	58.32
0-4	0.2%	1.7%	1.0%	1.79×	58.32
1-2	4.6%	1.7%	7.4%	0.23×	58.29
1-3	1.6%	1.7%	2.0%	0.84×	58.31
1-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.7%	2.38×	58.32
2-3	1.8%	1.7%	2.9%	0.60×	58.31
2-4	0.5%	1.7%	0.2%	7.14×	58.32
3-2	3.9%	1.7%	3.2%	0.53×	58.30
3-3	1.4%	1.7%	0.8%	2.04×	58.31
3-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.2%	7.14×	58.32
4-0	3.9%	1.7%	1.7%	1.02×	58.30
4-1	4.1%	1.7%	1.1%	1.59×	58.30
4-2	2.2%	1.7%	0.2%	7.14×	58.31
4-3	0.8%	1.7%	0.2%	7.14×	58.31
4-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.2%	7.14×	58.32

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan (2nd half DNB)	84.0%	82.7%	53.7%	1.54×	1.21
Frosinone (2nd half DNB)	16.0%	17.3%	46.3%	0.37×	5.78

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan leading at HT (DNB)	62.3%	65.7%	51.2%	1.28×	1.52
Frosinone leading at HT (DNB)	37.7%	34.3%	48.8%	0.70×	2.92

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan or draw (1X)	83.3%	80.6%	66.4%	1.21×	1.24
AC Milan or Frosinone (12)	80.8%	80.6%	73.6%	1.10×	1.24
Frosinone or draw (X2)	35.9%	41.7%	59.9%	0.70×	2.40

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan or draw at HT	75.5%	79.2%	72.9%	1.09×	1.26
AC Milan or Frosinone at HT	65.1%	67.1%	55.5%	1.21×	1.49
Frosinone or draw at HT	59.5%	57.2%	71.5%	0.80×	1.75

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan or draw (1UP)	83.3%	88.7%	71.7%	1.24×	1.13
Frosinone or draw (1UP)	36.2%	40.9%	65.4%	0.63×	2.45

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan or draw in 2nd half	88.6%	88.9%	69.9%	1.27×	1.12
AC Milan or Frosinone in 2nd half	71.2%	74.1%	64.9%	1.14×	1.35
Frosinone or draw in 2nd half	40.2%	37.8%	65.1%	0.58×	2.64

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	53.7%	50.3%	63.5%	0.79×	1.99
Neither half drawn	46.3%	49.7%	36.5%	1.36×	2.01

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan (DNB)	79.4%	74.8%	54.4%	1.38×	1.34
Frosinone (DNB)	20.6%	25.2%	45.6%	0.55×	3.97

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan to score first	65.5%	69.2%	48.6%	1.42×	1.45
Frosinone to score first	30.9%	27.3%	43.6%	0.63×	3.66
No goal scored	3.7%	4.3%	7.9%	0.54×	23.36

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	58.5%	55.0%	49.2%	1.12×	1.82
Not both teams to score	41.5%	45.0%	50.8%	0.89×	2.22

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	49.7%	44.4%	37.5%	1.18×	2.26
Not both score & under 2.5	27.1%	33.3%	40.1%	0.83×	3.00
Not both score & over 2.5	14.5%	12.4%	10.8%	1.14×	8.09
Both score & under 2.5	8.7%	8.3%	11.9%	0.70×	12.06

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	81.2%	82.6%	86.4%	0.96×	1.21
Both teams to score 2+	18.8%	17.4%	13.6%	1.28×	5.74

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	75.6%	74.5%	74.8%	1.00×	1.34
Both teams to score in 2nd half	24.4%	25.5%	25.2%	1.01×	3.92

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	53.6%	54.8%	62.7%	0.87×	1.83
Both score 1st half only	22.1%	21.3%	12.2%	1.74×	4.70
Both score 2nd half only	17.3%	15.0%	20.4%	0.73×	6.68
Both score in both halves	7.1%	6.8%	4.9%	1.38×	14.71

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	70.8%	79.3%	83.0%	0.96×	1.26
Both teams to score by HT	29.2%	20.7%	17.0%	1.22×	4.82

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	65.3%	65.9%	52.8%	1.25×	1.52
A half without a goal	34.7%	34.1%	47.2%	0.72×	2.94

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	42.1%	42.1%	48.4%	0.87×	2.37
4-6 goals	37.0%	35.1%	23.9%	1.47×	2.85
0-1 goals	15.8%	20.2%	27.0%	0.75×	4.95
7+ goals	5.1%	7.6%	1.0%	7.90×	13.19

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Frosinone to score exactly 1	36.7%	35.9%	34.7%	1.04×	2.78
Frosinone to score exactly 0	34.6%	33.8%	30.4%	1.11×	2.95
Frosinone to score exactly 2	19.5%	19.6%	23.3%	0.84×	5.11
Frosinone to score 3+	9.2%	8.6%	11.9%	0.72×	11.68

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan to score 3+	39.0%	35.6%	15.1%	2.35×	2.81
AC Milan to score exactly 2	26.7%	26.5%	24.7%	1.07×	3.77
AC Milan to score exactly 1	23.8%	23.3%	32.1%	0.73×	4.29
AC Milan to score exactly 0	10.6%	14.3%	28.3%	0.50×	7.00

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan leading at HT	40.5%	42.8%	28.5%	1.50×	2.34
Draw at HT	34.9%	32.9%	44.5%	0.74×	3.04
Frosinone leading at HT	24.5%	20.8%	27.1%	0.77×	4.80

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan -1: 1	41.3%	42.8%	—	—	2.34
AC Milan -1: 2	35.9%	37.4%	—	—	2.68
AC Milan -1: X	22.8%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan (0:1)	41.3%	42.6%	17.5%	2.43×	2.35
Frosinone (0:1)	35.9%	37.3%	59.9%	0.62×	2.68
Draw (0:1)	22.8%	24.2%	22.7%	1.07×	4.13

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Frosinone (0:2)	58.7%	63.0%	82.5%	0.76×	1.59
AC Milan (0:2)	22.2%	20.3%	7.7%	2.64×	4.93
Draw (0:2)	19.2%	15.3%	10.0%	1.54×	6.53

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Frosinone (0:3)	77.8%	80.5%	92.3%	0.87×	1.24
Draw (0:3)	12.2%	9.9%	4.7%	2.12×	10.05
AC Milan (0:3)	10.0%	5.8%	3.1%	1.87×	17.17

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Frosinone (0:4)	90.0%	94.5%	96.9%	0.98×	1.06
Draw (0:4)	6.2%	4.6%	2.3%	2.02×	21.73
AC Milan (0:4)	3.8%	1.2%	1.0%	1.27×	81.68

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan (1:0)	83.3%	81.4%	66.4%	1.23×	1.23
Draw (1:0)	10.8%	12.7%	19.3%	0.66×	7.88
Frosinone (1:0)	5.9%	6.9%	14.4%	0.48×	14.52

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan (2:0)	94.1%	94.0%	85.6%	1.10×	1.06
Draw (2:0)	4.3%	2.3%	8.6%	0.27×	43.56
Frosinone (2:0)	1.7%	2.3%	5.9%	0.39×	43.73

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	41.2%	44.0%	46.2%	0.95×	2.27
1st half highest scoring	35.8%	35.8%	27.0%	1.33×	2.79
Halves equal	23.0%	24.5%	26.9%	0.91×	4.09

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan to concede	65.4%	66.6%	69.6%	0.96×	1.50
AC Milan clean sheet	34.6%	33.4%	30.4%	1.10×	3.00

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan clean sheet in 1st half	51.9%	55.6%	58.8%	0.95×	1.80
AC Milan to concede in 1st half	48.1%	44.4%	41.2%	1.08×	2.25

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan clean sheet in 2nd half	66.7%	66.9%	49.9%	1.34×	1.50
AC Milan to concede in 2nd half	33.3%	33.1%	50.1%	0.66×	3.02

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan over 2.5 corners	79.9%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
AC Milan under 6.5 corners	73.4%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
AC Milan over 3.5 corners	65.9%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
AC Milan under 5.5 corners	62.3%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
AC Milan over 4.5 corners	51.2%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
AC Milan under 4.5 corners	48.8%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
AC Milan over 5.5 corners	37.7%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
AC Milan under 3.5 corners	34.1%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
AC Milan over 6.5 corners	26.6%	28.1%	—	—	3.55
AC Milan under 2.5 corners	20.1%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan over 0.5 goals	89.4%	87.3%	71.7%	1.22×	1.15
AC Milan under 3.5 goals	81.0%	82.2%	95.3%	0.86×	1.22
AC Milan over 1.5 goals	65.7%	67.9%	39.7%	1.71×	1.47
AC Milan under 2.5 goals	61.0%	63.6%	84.9%	0.75×	1.57
AC Milan over 2.5 goals	39.0%	36.4%	15.1%	2.41×	2.75
AC Milan under 1.5 goals	34.3%	32.1%	60.3%	0.53×	3.12
AC Milan over 3.5 goals	19.0%	17.8%	4.7%	3.80×	5.62
AC Milan under 0.5 goals	10.6%	12.7%	28.3%	0.45×	7.86

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan under 1.5 in 1st half	76.0%	76.8%	89.3%	0.86×	1.30
AC Milan over 0.5 in 1st half	60.7%	64.5%	42.1%	1.53×	1.55
AC Milan under 0.5 in 1st half	39.3%	35.5%	57.9%	0.61×	2.82
AC Milan over 1.5 in 1st half	24.0%	23.2%	10.7%	2.17×	4.31

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan scores more in 2nd half	45.3%	47.0%	36.3%	1.30×	2.13
AC Milan scores equally in both	28.1%	27.7%	41.7%	0.67×	3.61
AC Milan scores more in 1st half	26.6%	27.7%	22.2%	1.25×	3.61

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	53.5%	51.4%	44.0%	1.17×	1.95
Frosinone (home no bet)	46.5%	48.6%	56.0%	0.87×	2.06

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan even goals	50.6%	50.7%	56.2%	0.90×	1.97
AC Milan odd goals	49.4%	49.3%	43.8%	1.13×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	20.4%	24.3%	33.7%	0.72×	4.11
HT 1-0	19.1%	18.7%	18.5%	1.01×	5.36
HT 0-1	13.4%	11.0%	18.1%	0.61×	9.10
HT 1-1	12.5%	11.0%	10.3%	1.06×	9.11
Any other HT score	9.6%	6.9%	3.4%	2.06×	14.44
HT 2-0	8.9%	6.9%	5.8%	1.20×	14.45
HT 2-1	5.8%	6.9%	2.4%	2.87×	14.49
HT 0-2	4.4%	2.4%	5.4%	0.44×	42.01
HT 1-2	4.1%	2.4%	2.6%	0.90×	42.03
HT 2-2	1.9%	2.4%	0.7%	3.29×	42.17

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan at HT / AC Milan at FT	37.4%	41.5%	22.1%	1.88×	2.41
Draw at HT / AC Milan at FT	20.9%	21.6%	15.8%	1.36×	4.63
Frosinone at HT / Frosinone at FT	12.2%	12.7%	19.1%	0.66×	7.90
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	10.1%	12.6%	16.1%	0.79×	7.92
Frosinone at HT / Draw at FT	6.5%	6.0%	5.9%	1.02×	16.64
Frosinone at HT / AC Milan at FT	5.9%	6.0%	2.4%	2.50×	16.65
Draw at HT / Frosinone at FT	4.0%	3.5%	12.8%	0.27×	28.64
AC Milan at HT / Draw at FT	2.6%	3.5%	4.7%	0.74×	28.69
AC Milan at HT / Frosinone at FT	0.5%	3.5%	1.9%	1.81×	28.77

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan to score last	65.5%	70.0%	48.1%	1.45×	1.43
Frosinone to score last	30.9%	32.5%	44.1%	0.74×	3.08
No goal scored	3.7%	4.3%	7.9%	0.54×	23.36

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	96.3%	95.7%	92.1%	1.04×	1.05
AC Milan to lead by 1 at any time	76.7%	78.3%	55.3%	1.41×	1.28
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	59.3%	54.9%	43.7%	1.26×	1.82
AC Milan to lead by 2 at any time	48.8%	44.6%	24.0%	1.86×	2.24
Frosinone to lead by 1 at any time	36.2%	34.6%	50.4%	0.69×	2.89
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	28.5%	25.5%	15.1%	1.69×	3.91
AC Milan to lead by 3 at any time	25.8%	25.5%	8.8%	2.91×	3.93
Frosinone to lead by 2 at any time	10.9%	10.4%	20.2%	0.52×	9.59
Frosinone to lead by 3 at any time	2.7%	1.6%	6.5%	0.25×	62.04

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan most corners	52.4%	51.7%	—	—	1.93
Frosinone most corners	36.7%	39.3%	—	—	2.55
Corners level	10.8%	10.4%	—	—	9.59

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	84.6%	83.4%	89.2%	0.94×	1.20
2-6 goals	79.1%	78.7%	72.1%	1.09×	1.27
1-4 goals	72.5%	72.4%	80.7%	0.90×	1.38
2-5 goals	72.5%	72.4%	70.1%	1.03×	1.38
2-4 goals	60.4%	63.3%	61.6%	1.03×	1.58
3-6 goals	59.1%	59.1%	47.3%	1.25×	1.69
1-3 goals	54.2%	53.2%	67.5%	0.79×	1.88
3-5 goals	52.4%	53.2%	45.3%	1.17×	1.88
2-3 goals	42.1%	43.6%	48.4%	0.90×	2.29
3-4 goals	40.4%	43.6%	36.7%	1.19×	2.30
4-6 goals	37.0%	39.2%	23.9%	1.64×	2.55
1-2 goals	32.1%	35.2%	44.1%	0.80×	2.84
4-5 goals	30.4%	35.2%	21.8%	1.61×	2.84
5-6 goals	18.8%	18.8%	10.7%	1.76×	5.31
7+ goals	5.1%	8.9%	1.0%	9.23×	11.28

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan never behind	60.1%	67.9%	49.6%	1.37×	1.47
Frosinone never behind	19.6%	18.6%	44.7%	0.42×	5.36

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.9%	50.9%	51.6%	0.99×	1.96
Even number of goals	50.1%	49.1%	48.4%	1.01×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	52.1%	51.5%	56.5%	0.91×	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	47.9%	48.5%	43.5%	1.12×	2.06

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.6%	51.9%	50.7%	1.02×	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.4%	48.1%	49.3%	0.97×	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	96.3%	95.4%	92.1%	1.04×	1.05
Under 5.5 goals	88.2%	87.6%	97.0%	0.90×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	84.2%	82.3%	73.0%	1.13×	1.22
Under 4.5 goals	76.1%	77.3%	88.5%	0.87×	1.29
Over 2.5 goals	64.2%	61.8%	48.1%	1.28×	1.62
Under 3.5 goals	57.9%	58.6%	75.3%	0.78×	1.71
Over 3.5 goals	42.1%	41.4%	24.7%	1.67×	2.42
Under 2.5 goals	35.8%	38.2%	51.9%	0.74×	2.61
Over 4.5 goals	23.9%	22.7%	11.5%	1.97×	4.41
Under 1.5 goals	15.8%	17.7%	27.0%	0.65×	5.65
Over 5.5 goals	11.8%	12.4%	3.0%	4.13×	8.07
Under 0.5 goals	3.7%	4.6%	7.9%	0.58×	21.86

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	94.5%	92.4%	99.0%	0.93×	1.08
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	86.6%	86.7%	96.7%	0.90×	1.15
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	80.3%	81.1%	64.1%	1.27×	1.23
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	70.8%	72.4%	86.7%	0.83×	1.38
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	54.1%	51.9%	32.3%	1.61×	1.93
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	45.9%	48.1%	67.7%	0.71×	2.08
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	29.2%	27.6%	13.3%	2.08×	3.62
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	19.7%	18.9%	35.9%	0.53×	5.29
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	13.4%	13.3%	3.3%	4.05×	7.53
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	5.5%	7.6%	1.0%	7.74×	13.17

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 1st half	79.6%	78.5%	66.3%	1.18×	1.28
Under 2.5 in 1st half	78.6%	78.4%	91.2%	0.86×	1.28
Under 1.5 in 1st half	52.8%	54.7%	70.1%	0.78×	1.83
Over 1.5 in 1st half	47.2%	45.3%	29.9%	1.52×	2.21
Over 2.5 in 1st half	21.4%	21.6%	8.8%	2.46×	4.63
Under 0.5 in 1st half	20.4%	21.5%	33.7%	0.64×	4.64

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	82.1%	83.2%	78.6%	1.06×	1.20
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	75.3%	79.1%	82.4%	0.96×	1.27
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	51.2%	53.0%	43.1%	1.23×	1.89
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	48.8%	47.0%	56.9%	0.83×	2.13
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	24.7%	20.9%	17.6%	1.19×	4.78
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	17.9%	16.8%	21.4%	0.79×	5.96

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Frosinone not to score in both halves	84.0%	84.4%	78.4%	1.08×	1.19
AC Milan not to score in both halves	55.6%	57.9%	75.8%	0.76×	1.73
AC Milan to score in both halves	44.4%	42.1%	24.3%	1.74×	2.38
Frosinone to score in both halves	16.0%	15.6%	21.6%	0.72×	6.39

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	58.5%	58.7%	49.2%	1.19×	1.71
Only AC Milan scores	31.0%	33.3%	22.6%	1.47×	3.01
Only Frosinone scores	6.9%	7.1%	20.5%	0.35×	14.04
Neither team scores	3.7%	4.6%	7.9%	0.58×	21.70

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	22.1%	22.6%	23.5%	0.96×	4.43
Exactly 2 goals	20.0%	22.6%	25.0%	0.90×	4.43
Exactly 4 goals	18.3%	17.5%	13.3%	1.31×	5.73
Exactly 1 goals	12.1%	12.1%	19.2%	0.63×	8.25
Exactly 5 goals	12.1%	12.1%	8.6%	1.40×	8.25
6 or more goals	11.8%	12.1%	3.0%	4.04×	8.25
Exactly 0 goals	3.7%	4.5%	7.9%	0.56×	22.38

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	32.4%	35.8%	36.5%	0.98×	2.79
2 goals in 1st half	25.8%	28.4%	21.2%	1.34×	3.52
3+ goals in 1st half	21.4%	21.5%	8.8%	2.45×	4.66
No goals in 1st half	20.4%	21.4%	33.7%	0.64×	4.67

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	51.2%	51.1%	43.1%	1.19×	1.96
1 goal in 2nd half	30.8%	33.8%	35.7%	0.95×	2.96
No goals in 2nd half	17.9%	16.5%	21.4%	0.77×	6.08

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Frosinone not to win both halves	97.2%	97.2%	91.1%	1.07×	1.03
AC Milan not to win both halves	75.8%	75.2%	89.9%	0.84×	1.33
AC Milan to win both halves	24.2%	24.8%	10.1%	2.46×	4.04
Frosinone to win both halves	2.8%	2.8%	8.9%	0.32×	35.65

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan to win either half	76.1%	79.7%	53.3%	1.50×	1.26
Frosinone to win neither half	66.9%	67.7%	51.6%	1.31×	1.48
Frosinone to win either half	33.1%	32.3%	48.4%	0.67×	3.09
AC Milan to win neither half	23.9%	20.3%	46.7%	0.44×	4.92

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Frosinone not to win to nil	93.1%	92.1%	79.5%	1.16×	1.09
AC Milan not to win to nil	69.0%	69.7%	77.4%	0.90×	1.44
AC Milan to win to nil	31.0%	30.3%	22.6%	1.34×	3.30
Frosinone to win to nil	6.9%	7.9%	20.5%	0.38×	12.67

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan by 1	22.8%	24.1%	22.7%	1.06×	4.15
AC Milan by 3+	22.2%	24.1%	7.7%	3.14×	4.15
Draw	19.2%	17.1%	26.4%	0.65×	5.87
AC Milan by 2	19.2%	17.1%	10.0%	1.71×	5.87
Frosinone by 1	10.8%	11.8%	19.3%	0.61×	8.51
Frosinone by 2	4.3%	2.7%	8.6%	0.31×	36.77
Frosinone by 3+	1.7%	2.7%	5.9%	0.46×	36.85