AC Milan v Internazionale — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 8 March 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
9 – 11
On target
2 – 2
Shots in box
6 – 7
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.13
Set-piece xG
0.00 – 0.04
Goals − xG
+0.15 – -1.44
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.AC Milan win
25.8%
Draw
24.8%
Internazionale win
49.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
AC Milan are conceding fewer than expected — 2.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWLWWDDWDW last 10
scored 19
from 19.8 xG
conceded 13
from 15.9 xG
Internazionale have scored 28 from 28.3 expected and conceded 13 from 12.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WDDWWWWDWW last 10
scored 28
from 28.3 xG
conceded 13
from 12.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.16–1.69 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.34–1.75 | 1-1 11% | 60% | 61% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
AC Milan 0.85 xGInternazionale 1.44 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
AC Milan attacking right
Internazionale attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 AC Milan |
Luka Modric | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Christian Pulisic |
| 13' |
 Internazionale |
Federico Dimarco | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Francesco Pio Esposito |
| 20' |
Internazionale |
Federico Dimarco | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Piotr Zielinski |
| 33' |
Internazionale |
Henrikh Mkhitaryan | 0.61 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Piotr Zielinski |
| 34' |
AC Milan |
Estupiñán | 0.22 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Youssouf Fofana |
| 38' |
AC Milan |
Alexis Saelemaekers | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Christian Pulisic |
| 40' |
AC Milan |
Christian Pulisic | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Fikayo Tomori |
| 40' |
AC Milan |
Fikayo Tomori | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Alexis Saelemaekers |
| 45' |
AC Milan |
Youssouf Fofana | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 47' |
Internazionale |
Nicolò Barella | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Piotr Zielinski |
| 47' |
Internazionale |
Piotr Zielinski | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Nicolò Barella |
| 48' |
AC Milan |
Rafael Leão | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Christian Pulisic |
| 48' |
Internazionale |
Francesco Pio Esposito | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | — |
| 50' |
AC Milan |
Youssouf Fofana | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Luka Modric |
| 53' |
Internazionale |
Federico Dimarco | 0.42 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Henrikh Mkhitaryan |
| 57' |
AC Milan |
Rafael Leão | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Youssouf Fofana |
| 60' |
Internazionale |
Ange-Yoan Bonny | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Francesco Pio Esposito |
| 62' |
Internazionale |
Ange-Yoan Bonny | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Denzel Dumfries |
| 91' |
Internazionale |
Francesco Pio Esposito | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Andy Diouf |
| 94' |
Internazionale |
Manuel Akanji | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Petar Sucic |
Players
AC Milan
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estupiñán DML | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.22 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Alexis Saelemaekers DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.03 | 0.16 |
| Luka Modric MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.35 |
| Fikayo Tomori DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.12 | 0.44 |
| Strahinja Pavlovic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Mike Maignan GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Koni de Winter DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.59 |
| Adrien Rabiot MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Christian Pulisic FW | 86 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.12 | 0.31 | 0.46 |
| Rafael Leão FW | 75 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.00 | 0.46 |
| Youssouf Fofana MC | 75 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.29 | 0.52 |
| Samuele Ricci Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Niclas Füllkrug Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Christopher Nkunku Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Internazionale
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Federico Dimarco DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.46 | 0.00 | 0.66 |
| Francesco Pio Esposito FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.14 | 0.07 | 0.21 |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Manuel Akanji DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Piotr Zielinski MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.05 | 0.65 | 0.79 |
| Yann Sommer GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Yann Bisseck DC | 82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Nicolò Barella MC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.49 |
| Alessandro Bastoni DC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Henrikh Mkhitaryan MC | 61 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.61 | 0.42 | 1.10 |
| Luis Henrique DMR | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Petar Sucic Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.22 |
| Denzel Dumfries Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.17 |
| Carlos Augusto Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Davide Frattesi Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Andy Diouf Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.16 |