AC Milan v Parma Calcio 1913 — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 22 February 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
25 – 9
On target
5 – 3
Shots in box
17 – 5
xG per shot
0.07 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
0.28 – 0.52
Goals − xG
-1.63 – +0.24
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.AC Milan win
66.1%
Draw
22.0%
Parma Calcio 1913 win
11.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
AC Milan are finishing below their chances — 3.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.0 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWDLLWLWWD last 10
scored 11
from 14.0 xG
conceded 13
from 15.0 xG
Parma Calcio 1913 are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 7.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWWLLLWLLD last 10
scored 7
from 7.8 xG
conceded 11
from 18.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.86–0.65 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.43–0.80 | 2-0 12% | 63% | 50% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
AC Milan 1.63 xGParma Calcio 1913 0.76 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
AC Milan attacking right
Parma Calcio 1913 attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Parma Calcio 1913 |
Mateo Pellegrino | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Emanuele Valeri |
| 2' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Mateo Pellegrino | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 16' |
 AC Milan |
Ardon Jashari | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Estupiñán |
| 17' |
AC Milan |
Ardon Jashari | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Christian Pulisic |
| 20' |
AC Milan |
Christian Pulisic | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Rafael Leão |
| 21' |
AC Milan |
Ardon Jashari | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Adrien Rabiot |
| 30' |
AC Milan |
Rafael Leão | 0.07 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Luka Modric |
| 35' |
AC Milan |
Christian Pulisic | 0.31 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Alexis Saelemaekers |
| 37' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Gabriel Strefezza | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Emanuele Valeri |
| 38' |
AC Milan |
Alexis Saelemaekers | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Luka Modric |
| 41' |
AC Milan |
Christian Pulisic | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Adrien Rabiot |
| 44' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Adrián Bernabé | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Gabriel Strefezza |
| 47' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Gabriel Strefezza | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Enrico Del Prato |
| 48' |
AC Milan |
Rafael Leão | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Christian Pulisic |
| 50' |
AC Milan |
Adrien Rabiot | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ardon Jashari |
| 53' |
AC Milan |
Christian Pulisic | 0.35 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Rafael Leão |
| 56' |
AC Milan |
Estupiñán | 0.01 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Adrien Rabiot |
| 57' |
AC Milan |
Alexis Saelemaekers | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Luka Modric |
| 60' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Lautaro Valenti | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 62' |
AC Milan |
Niclas Füllkrug | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Luka Modric |
| 63' |
AC Milan |
Adrien Rabiot | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Davide Bartesaghi |
| 63' |
AC Milan |
Ardon Jashari | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 63' |
AC Milan |
Rafael Leão | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Adrien Rabiot |
| 65' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Lautaro Valenti | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 67' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Hans Nicolussi Caviglia | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 74' |
AC Milan |
Strahinja Pavlovic | 0.08 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 79' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Mariano Troilo | 0.44 | From Corner | — | Goal | Emanuele Valeri |
| 87' |
AC Milan |
Adrien Rabiot | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Christopher Nkunku |
| 87' |
AC Milan |
Niclas Füllkrug | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Christopher Nkunku |
| 90' |
AC Milan |
Niclas Füllkrug | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 95' |
AC Milan |
Rafael Leão | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Davide Bartesaghi |
| 96' |
AC Milan |
Zachary Athekame | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Rafael Leão |
| 97' |
AC Milan |
Adrien Rabiot | 0.08 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Rafael Leão |
| 97' |
AC Milan |
Alexis Saelemaekers | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Rafael Leão |
Players
AC Milan
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael Leão FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 0.16 | 0.55 | 0.82 |
| Adrien Rabiot MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0.13 | 0.13 | 0.70 |
| Alexis Saelemaekers DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.31 | 0.69 |
| Mike Maignan GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Luka Modric MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.18 | 0.39 |
| Davide Bartesaghi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.21 |
| Koni de Winter DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Fikayo Tomori DC | 89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.66 |
| Ardon Jashari Sub | 79 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.20 | 0.02 | 0.28 |
| Christian Pulisic FW | 66 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.76 | 0.05 | 0.95 |
| Estupiñán DML | 66 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.11 | 0.26 |
| Niclas Füllkrug Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Strahinja Pavlovic Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Ruben Loftus-Cheek MC | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Zachary Athekame Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Christopher Nkunku Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.02 |
Parma Calcio 1913
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mariano Troilo DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.44 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Mateo Pellegrino FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Lautaro Valenti DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Mandela Keita MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Sascha Britschgi DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Enrico Del Prato DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.17 |
| Emanuele Valeri DML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.56 | 0.12 |
| Edoardo Corvi GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Gabriel Strefezza FW | 80 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0.08 |
| Adrián Bernabé MC | 63 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Christian Ordóñez MC | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Hans Nicolussi Caviglia Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Oliver Sørensen Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Jacob Ondrejka Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nahuel Estévez Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |