AC Milan v Parma Calcio 1913 — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 6 December 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2627

Serie A xG Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

AC Milan

14:00 UTC

Parma Calcio 1913

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 22 Oct, 10:58 · 1,083h before kick-off

AC Milan win

57.9%

model 58.6%

Draw

23.0%

model 22.0%

Parma Calcio 1913 win

19.1%

model 19.4%

582319

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (346 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 10.4%
1-0 10.3%
2-1 9.9%
2-0 9.9%
3-1 6.4%

Goals

Over 2.5	56.0%	Under 2.5	44.0%
BTTS yes	54.1%	BTTS no	45.9%
AC Milan 1+	85.3%	AC Milan 2+	57.1%
Parma Calcio 1913 1+	63.5%	Parma Calcio 1913 2+	26.7%

Expected goals 1.92 – 1.01. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

93/100

Data quality

90/100

Model agreement

98%

★ Best pick

AC Milan (-0.5)

Asian handicap · usually 40%

57.1% fair odds 1.75

strong signal · 1154 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Parma Calcio 1913 not to score in both halves

Score both halves · usually 78%

84.3% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 828 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

AC Milan carry the stronger rating, 1671 Elo against 1438.
AC Milan have created 1.98 xG a match over their last five while Parma Calcio 1913 have allowed 2.08.
Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.
At home AC Milan average 2.47 xG a match.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

AC Milan have an estimated 57.9% win probability, against 23.0% for the draw and 19.1% for Parma Calcio 1913. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.92 for AC Milan and 1.01 for Parma Calcio 1913.

Why AC Milan

AC Milan carry the stronger rating, 1671 Elo against 1438. AC Milan have created 1.98 xG a match over their last five while Parma Calcio 1913 have allowed 2.08. Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five. At home AC Milan average 2.47 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 23.0%. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why Parma Calcio 1913 can win

Parma Calcio 1913 have created 0.86 xG a match over their last five while AC Milan have allowed 1.59. Away from home Parma Calcio 1913 average 0.62 xG a match. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: AC Milan were missing 0.96 expected goal involvements a match against 0.66.

Key players

AC Milan's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Gonçalo Ramos (0.55), Christian Pulisic (0.43), Rafael Leão (0.43). Parma Calcio 1913's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Mateo Pellegrino (0.33), Gabriel Strefezza (0.23), Adrián Bernabé (0.19).

Availability

1 of AC Milan's top three contributors did not start their last match. 27% of AC Milan's last eleven are new to the club this window. 2 of Parma Calcio 1913's top three contributors did not start their last match. 36% of Parma Calcio 1913's last eleven are new to the club this window.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

AC Milan: 60% possession, 10.2 shots a match, 10.0 faced, 0.59 xG a match from set pieces. Parma Calcio 1913: 43% possession, 11.6 shots a match, 16.8 faced, 0.29 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-22 14:54 · team_stats 2026-10-20 06:04 · availability 2026-10-22 14:58 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

AC Milan are the model's most likely outcome at 57.9%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 10.4%. Confidence 93/100, data quality 90/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

AC Milan are conceding fewer than expected — 2.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

LWLWWDDWDW last 10 scored 19 from 19.8 xG conceded 13 from 15.9 xG

Parma Calcio 1913 are conceding fewer than expected — 3.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

LLWLLDLWLL last 10 scored 7 from 8.6 xG conceded 17 from 20.9 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	592219	1.92–1.01	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	602118	1.96–0.97	1-0 10%	56%	53%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan to win	66.0%	64.7%	40.0%	1.62×	1.55
Draw	20.2%	24.4%	26.4%	0.92×	4.10
Parma Calcio 1913 to win	13.8%	13.5%	33.7%	0.40×	7.40

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan & not both score	39.2%	33.4%	22.6%	1.48×	3.00
AC Milan & both teams score	26.9%	25.2%	17.5%	1.43×	3.97
Draw & both teams score	14.2%	13.3%	18.6%	0.71×	7.53
Parma Calcio 1913 & not both score	7.3%	8.3%	20.6%	0.41×	12.01
Parma Calcio 1913 & both teams score	6.5%	8.3%	13.2%	0.63×	12.02
Draw & not both score	6.0%	8.3%	7.9%	1.05×	12.02

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan & over 1.5	54.0%	48.9%	29.9%	1.63×	2.04
AC Milan & under 3.5	42.3%	40.3%	29.6%	1.36×	2.48
AC Milan & over 2.5	41.7%	40.3%	23.3%	1.73×	2.48
AC Milan & under 2.5	24.3%	21.6%	16.8%	1.28×	4.63
AC Milan & over 3.5	23.7%	21.6%	10.6%	2.04×	4.63
Draw & under 2.5	15.6%	18.0%	19.7%	0.91×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	15.6%	18.0%	19.7%	0.91×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	14.2%	12.8%	18.6%	0.69×	7.79
AC Milan & under 1.5	12.1%	12.8%	10.2%	1.26×	7.79
Parma Calcio 1913 & under 3.5	11.0%	12.8%	26.3%	0.49×	7.79
Parma Calcio 1913 & over 1.5	9.0%	7.9%	24.6%	0.32×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	6.0%	7.9%	7.9%	1.00×	12.63
Parma Calcio 1913 & over 2.5	7.1%	7.9%	18.1%	0.44×	12.63
Parma Calcio 1913 & under 2.5	6.6%	7.9%	15.6%	0.51×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	4.6%	4.8%	6.9%	0.70×	20.81
Draw & over 3.5	4.6%	4.8%	6.9%	0.70×	20.81
Parma Calcio 1913 & under 1.5	4.7%	4.8%	9.1%	0.53×	20.81
Parma Calcio 1913 & over 3.5	2.8%	4.8%	7.5%	0.64×	20.82

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan (1UP)	76.3%	78.6%	55.3%	1.42×	1.27
Parma Calcio 1913 (1UP)	30.0%	27.5%	50.5%	0.54×	3.64

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan (2UP)	66.0%	68.0%	41.8%	1.63×	1.47
Parma Calcio 1913 (2UP)	13.8%	14.2%	36.2%	0.39×	7.03

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan to win 2nd half	62.4%	59.8%	35.0%	1.71×	1.67
2nd half drawn	26.3%	25.7%	35.0%	0.74×	3.89
Parma Calcio 1913 to win 2nd half	11.3%	11.1%	30.2%	0.37×	8.98

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Parma Calcio 1913 under 1.5 in 2nd half	92.5%	92.0%	85.1%	1.08×	1.09
Parma Calcio 1913 under 0.5 in 2nd half	63.8%	60.1%	50.0%	1.20×	1.66
Parma Calcio 1913 over 0.5 in 2nd half	36.2%	39.9%	50.0%	0.80×	2.51
Parma Calcio 1913 over 1.5 in 2nd half	7.5%	8.0%	14.9%	0.54×	12.50

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan over 0.5 in 2nd half	76.7%	75.4%	53.7%	1.40×	1.33
AC Milan under 1.5 in 2nd half	57.3%	58.0%	81.5%	0.71×	1.73
AC Milan over 1.5 in 2nd half	42.7%	42.0%	18.5%	2.27×	2.38
AC Milan under 0.5 in 2nd half	23.3%	24.6%	46.3%	0.53×	4.07

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan (+0.5)	86.2%	88.5%	66.3%	1.33×	1.13
Parma Calcio 1913 (+2.5)	79.0%	78.5%	92.3%	0.85×	1.27
AC Milan (-0.5)	66.0%	68.7%	40.0%	1.72×	1.46
Parma Calcio 1913 (+1.5)	58.8%	57.0%	82.5%	0.69×	1.75
AC Milan (-1.5)	41.2%	43.0%	17.5%	2.45×	2.33
Parma Calcio 1913 (+0.5)	34.0%	31.3%	60.0%	0.52×	3.19
AC Milan (-2.5)	21.0%	21.5%	7.7%	2.79×	4.65
Parma Calcio 1913 (-0.5)	13.8%	11.5%	33.7%	0.34×	8.66

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Parma Calcio 1913 to concede	86.8%	86.3%	71.6%	1.20×	1.16
Parma Calcio 1913 clean sheet	13.2%	13.7%	28.4%	0.48×	7.29

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Parma Calcio 1913 clean sheet in 1st half	56.7%	57.0%	57.9%	0.98×	1.76
Parma Calcio 1913 to concede in 1st half	43.3%	43.0%	42.1%	1.02×	2.32

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Parma Calcio 1913 to concede in 2nd half	76.7%	75.8%	53.7%	1.41×	1.32
Parma Calcio 1913 clean sheet in 2nd half	23.3%	24.2%	46.3%	0.52×	4.13

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Parma Calcio 1913 under 6.5 corners	92.4%	89.9%	—	—	1.11
Parma Calcio 1913 under 5.5 corners	86.2%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Parma Calcio 1913 under 4.5 corners	76.1%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Parma Calcio 1913 under 3.5 corners	61.5%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Parma Calcio 1913 over 2.5 corners	57.2%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Parma Calcio 1913 under 2.5 corners	42.8%	42.8%	—	—	2.33
Parma Calcio 1913 over 3.5 corners	38.5%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Parma Calcio 1913 over 4.5 corners	23.9%	24.0%	—	—	4.17
Parma Calcio 1913 over 5.5 corners	13.8%	14.8%	—	—	6.77
Parma Calcio 1913 over 6.5 corners	7.6%	10.1%	—	—	9.90

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Parma Calcio 1913 under 3.5 goals	99.1%	97.5%	97.1%	1.00×	1.03
Parma Calcio 1913 under 2.5 goals	95.3%	97.5%	88.1%	1.11×	1.03
Parma Calcio 1913 under 1.5 goals	81.1%	81.4%	65.0%	1.25×	1.23
Parma Calcio 1913 over 0.5 goals	54.9%	53.6%	69.6%	0.77×	1.87
Parma Calcio 1913 under 0.5 goals	45.1%	46.4%	30.4%	1.53×	2.15
Parma Calcio 1913 over 1.5 goals	18.9%	18.6%	35.0%	0.53×	5.39
Parma Calcio 1913 over 2.5 goals	4.7%	2.5%	11.9%	0.21×	39.79
Parma Calcio 1913 over 3.5 goals	0.9%	2.5%	2.9%	0.87×	39.99

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Parma Calcio 1913 under 1.5 in 1st half	95.2%	95.9%	89.9%	1.07×	1.04
Parma Calcio 1913 under 0.5 in 1st half	70.8%	68.5%	58.8%	1.17×	1.46
Parma Calcio 1913 over 0.5 in 1st half	29.2%	31.5%	41.2%	0.76×	3.18
Parma Calcio 1913 over 1.5 in 1st half	4.8%	4.1%	10.1%	0.40×	24.53

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Parma Calcio 1913 scores equally in both	52.4%	51.0%	43.4%	1.18×	1.96
Parma Calcio 1913 scores more in 2nd half	27.5%	26.3%	32.8%	0.80×	3.80
Parma Calcio 1913 scores more in 1st half	20.1%	21.9%	23.9%	0.92×	4.56

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan (away no bet)	76.6%	73.5%	60.2%	1.22×	1.36
Draw (away no bet)	23.4%	26.5%	39.8%	0.66×	3.78

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Parma Calcio 1913 even goals	60.2%	59.0%	55.5%	1.06×	1.69
Parma Calcio 1913 odd goals	39.8%	41.0%	44.5%	0.92×	2.44

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	86.8%	87.9%	87.3%	1.01×	1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals	13.2%	12.1%	12.7%	0.95×	8.27

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	66.8%	68.4%	60.2%	1.14×	1.46
Both halves under 1.5 goals	33.2%	31.6%	39.8%	0.79×	3.16

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	61.3%	60.1%	53.4%	1.13×	1.67
AC Milan to score 2+ in a row	53.6%	51.0%	31.7%	1.61×	1.96
Either team to score 3+ in a row	27.5%	25.2%	17.9%	1.41×	3.97
AC Milan to score 3+ in a row	25.6%	25.2%	10.1%	2.49×	3.98
Parma Calcio 1913 to score 2+ in a row	12.3%	12.0%	27.8%	0.43×	8.31
Parma Calcio 1913 to score 3+ in a row	2.1%	2.5%	7.9%	0.32×	39.42

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan corners (+3.5)	93.8%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
AC Milan corners (+2.5)	89.3%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
AC Milan corners (+1.5)	82.7%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Parma Calcio 1913 corners (+3.5)	70.9%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Parma Calcio 1913 corners (+2.5)	60.6%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
AC Milan corners (-1.5)	51.0%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Parma Calcio 1913 corners (+1.5)	49.0%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
AC Milan corners (-2.5)	39.4%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
AC Milan corners (-3.5)	29.1%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Parma Calcio 1913 corners (-1.5)	17.3%	20.2%	—	—	4.94
Parma Calcio 1913 corners (-2.5)	10.7%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
Parma Calcio 1913 corners (-3.5)	6.2%	10.4%	—	—	9.59

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	58.4%	46.6%	—	—	2.15
9-11 corners	25.0%	31.2%	—	—	3.21
12+ corners	16.6%	22.6%	—	—	4.43

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	88.5%	83.1%	—	—	1.20
Under 11.5 corners	83.4%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Under 10.5 corners	76.7%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 9.5 corners	68.3%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Under 8.5 corners	58.4%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 7.5 corners	52.7%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 7.5 corners	47.3%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 8.5 corners	41.6%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Over 9.5 corners	31.7%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Over 10.5 corners	23.3%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
Over 11.5 corners	16.6%	19.3%	—	—	5.18
Over 12.5 corners	11.5%	16.9%	—	—	5.91

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-0	12.1%	11.5%	10.2%	1.12×	8.72
2-0	12.2%	11.5%	6.7%	1.70×	8.72
1-1	9.6%	7.4%	11.9%	0.62×	13.50
2-1	9.7%	7.4%	9.4%	0.79×	13.50
3-0	8.3%	7.4%	3.6%	2.05×	13.50
3-1	6.6%	7.4%	3.1%	2.37×	13.51
0-0	6.0%	7.4%	7.9%	0.93×	13.51
Any other score	5.5%	7.4%	2.8%	2.68×	13.51
0-1	4.7%	1.7%	9.1%	0.19×	58.29
0-2	1.9%	1.7%	6.6%	0.26×	58.31
0-3	0.5%	1.7%	3.5%	0.49×	58.32
0-4	0.1%	1.7%	1.0%	1.78×	58.32
1-2	3.8%	1.7%	7.5%	0.23×	58.30
1-3	1.0%	1.7%	2.0%	0.84×	58.31
1-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.7%	2.38×	58.32
2-2	3.9%	1.7%	6.0%	0.29×	58.30
2-3	1.0%	1.7%	2.9%	0.59×	58.31
2-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.2%	7.13×	58.32
3-2	2.6%	1.7%	3.1%	0.55×	58.30
3-3	0.7%	1.7%	0.8%	2.04×	58.32
3-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.2%	7.13×	58.32
4-0	4.2%	1.7%	1.7%	1.02×	58.30
4-1	3.3%	1.7%	1.1%	1.59×	58.30
4-2	1.3%	1.7%	0.2%	7.13×	58.31
4-3	0.4%	1.7%	0.2%	7.13×	58.32
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.2%	7.13×	58.32

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan (2nd half DNB)	84.7%	83.5%	53.7%	1.56×	1.20
Parma Calcio 1913 (2nd half DNB)	15.3%	16.5%	46.3%	0.36×	6.06

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan leading at HT (DNB)	64.8%	66.0%	51.1%	1.29×	1.52
Parma Calcio 1913 leading at HT (DNB)	35.2%	34.0%	48.9%	0.70×	2.94

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan or draw (1X)	86.2%	86.5%	66.3%	1.30×	1.16
AC Milan or Parma Calcio 1913 (12)	79.8%	75.6%	73.6%	1.03×	1.32
Parma Calcio 1913 or draw (X2)	34.0%	35.3%	60.0%	0.59×	2.83

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan or draw at HT	81.8%	84.2%	72.8%	1.16×	1.19
Parma Calcio 1913 or draw at HT	66.6%	66.6%	71.6%	0.93×	1.50
AC Milan or Parma Calcio 1913 at HT	51.6%	47.8%	55.4%	0.86×	2.09

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan or draw (1UP)	86.2%	91.8%	71.6%	1.28×	1.09
Parma Calcio 1913 or draw (1UP)	34.0%	39.3%	65.5%	0.60×	2.55

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan or draw in 2nd half	88.7%	88.9%	69.8%	1.27×	1.13
AC Milan or Parma Calcio 1913 in 2nd half	73.7%	74.3%	65.0%	1.14×	1.35
Parma Calcio 1913 or draw in 2nd half	37.6%	40.2%	65.0%	0.62×	2.49

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	62.0%	61.4%	63.5%	0.97×	1.63
Neither half drawn	38.0%	38.6%	36.5%	1.06×	2.59

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan (DNB)	82.8%	80.3%	54.3%	1.48×	1.25
Parma Calcio 1913 (DNB)	17.2%	19.7%	45.7%	0.43×	5.08

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan to score first	67.5%	69.5%	48.6%	1.43×	1.44
Parma Calcio 1913 to score first	26.5%	27.8%	43.6%	0.64×	3.60
No goal scored	6.0%	7.4%	7.9%	0.93×	13.50

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	52.4%	51.3%	50.8%	1.01×	1.95
Both teams to score	47.6%	48.7%	49.2%	0.99×	2.05

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	38.0%	38.4%	37.4%	1.03×	2.60
Not both score & under 2.5	36.9%	38.4%	40.1%	0.96×	2.60
Not both score & over 2.5	15.5%	21.5%	10.8%	1.99×	4.65
Both score & under 2.5	9.6%	8.3%	11.9%	0.70×	12.06

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	88.6%	85.6%	86.5%	0.99×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	11.4%	14.4%	13.5%	1.07×	6.96

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	72.2%	73.8%	74.9%	0.99×	1.36
Both teams to score in 2nd half	27.8%	26.2%	25.1%	1.04×	3.82

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	63.1%	65.6%	62.7%	1.05×	1.53
Both score 2nd half only	24.3%	21.1%	20.3%	1.04×	4.73
Both score 1st half only	9.1%	6.8%	12.3%	0.56×	14.60
Both score in both halves	3.5%	4.9%	4.9%	1.00×	20.31

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	87.4%	85.3%	82.9%	1.03×	1.17
Both teams to score by HT	12.6%	14.7%	17.1%	0.86×	6.82

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	51.0%	52.6%	52.8%	1.00×	1.90
A half without a goal	49.0%	47.4%	47.2%	1.00×	2.11

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	46.0%	47.2%	48.4%	0.97×	2.12
4-6 goals	28.7%	26.6%	23.8%	1.12×	3.76
0-1 goals	22.8%	22.9%	27.0%	0.85×	4.37
7+ goals	2.4%	1.8%	1.0%	1.92×	54.26

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Parma Calcio 1913 to score exactly 0	45.1%	42.8%	30.4%	1.41×	2.34
Parma Calcio 1913 to score exactly 1	35.9%	35.9%	34.7%	1.03×	2.78
Parma Calcio 1913 to score exactly 2	14.3%	12.9%	23.2%	0.56×	7.75
Parma Calcio 1913 to score 3+	4.7%	4.6%	11.9%	0.39×	21.74

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan to score 3+	32.9%	32.6%	15.0%	2.17×	3.07
AC Milan to score exactly 2	27.1%	26.5%	24.8%	1.07×	3.77
AC Milan to score exactly 1	26.8%	26.5%	32.1%	0.83×	3.77
AC Milan to score exactly 0	13.2%	14.3%	28.4%	0.50×	6.99

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	48.4%	52.2%	44.6%	1.17×	1.92
AC Milan leading at HT	33.4%	33.4%	28.4%	1.18×	3.00
Parma Calcio 1913 leading at HT	18.2%	15.8%	27.2%	0.58×	6.35

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan -1: 1	41.2%	42.8%	—	—	2.34
AC Milan -1: 2	34.0%	30.1%	—	—	3.32
AC Milan -1: X	24.8%	23.5%	—	—	4.25

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan (0:1)	41.2%	42.6%	17.5%	2.43×	2.35
Parma Calcio 1913 (0:1)	34.0%	30.1%	60.0%	0.50×	3.32
Draw (0:1)	24.8%	24.2%	22.6%	1.07×	4.13

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Parma Calcio 1913 (0:2)	58.8%	63.1%	82.5%	0.76×	1.59
AC Milan (0:2)	21.0%	20.3%	7.7%	2.64×	4.93
Draw (0:2)	20.3%	20.3%	10.0%	2.03×	4.94

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Parma Calcio 1913 (0:3)	79.0%	80.6%	92.3%	0.87×	1.24
Draw (0:3)	12.2%	9.9%	4.7%	2.12×	10.05
AC Milan (0:3)	8.8%	5.8%	3.1%	1.86×	17.19

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Parma Calcio 1913 (0:4)	91.2%	94.5%	96.9%	0.98×	1.06
Draw (0:4)	5.7%	4.6%	2.3%	2.01×	21.77
AC Milan (0:4)	3.1%	1.2%	1.0%	1.27×	81.76

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan (1:0)	86.2%	86.0%	66.3%	1.30×	1.16
Draw (1:0)	9.7%	6.9%	19.4%	0.36×	14.46
Parma Calcio 1913 (1:0)	4.0%	3.3%	14.4%	0.23×	30.48

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan (2:0)	96.0%	96.8%	85.6%	1.13×	1.03
Draw (2:0)	3.1%	2.3%	8.7%	0.26×	43.64
Parma Calcio 1913 (2:0)	0.9%	2.3%	5.9%	0.39×	43.77

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	60.7%	60.7%	46.2%	1.31×	1.65
Halves equal	21.8%	24.3%	26.9%	0.90×	4.11
1st half highest scoring	17.5%	19.3%	27.0%	0.71×	5.19

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan to concede	54.9%	53.3%	69.6%	0.77×	1.88
AC Milan clean sheet	45.1%	46.7%	30.4%	1.54×	2.14

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan clean sheet in 1st half	70.8%	67.3%	58.8%	1.15×	1.49
AC Milan to concede in 1st half	29.2%	32.7%	41.2%	0.79×	3.06

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan clean sheet in 2nd half	63.8%	59.9%	50.0%	1.20×	1.67
AC Milan to concede in 2nd half	36.2%	40.1%	50.0%	0.80×	2.50

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan over 2.5 corners	79.3%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
AC Milan under 6.5 corners	74.2%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
AC Milan over 3.5 corners	65.1%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
AC Milan under 5.5 corners	63.1%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
AC Milan over 4.5 corners	50.3%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
AC Milan under 4.5 corners	49.7%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
AC Milan over 5.5 corners	36.9%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
AC Milan under 3.5 corners	34.9%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
AC Milan over 6.5 corners	25.8%	28.1%	—	—	3.55
AC Milan under 2.5 corners	20.7%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan over 0.5 goals	86.8%	87.3%	71.6%	1.22×	1.15
AC Milan under 3.5 goals	85.3%	87.2%	95.3%	0.92×	1.15
AC Milan under 2.5 goals	67.1%	68.0%	85.0%	0.80×	1.47
AC Milan over 1.5 goals	60.0%	63.6%	39.7%	1.60×	1.57
AC Milan under 1.5 goals	40.0%	36.4%	60.3%	0.60×	2.74
AC Milan over 2.5 goals	32.9%	32.0%	15.0%	2.13×	3.12
AC Milan over 3.5 goals	14.7%	12.8%	4.7%	2.72×	7.84
AC Milan under 0.5 goals	13.2%	12.7%	28.4%	0.45×	7.85

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan under 1.5 in 1st half	88.9%	90.3%	89.3%	1.01×	1.11
AC Milan under 0.5 in 1st half	56.7%	56.7%	57.9%	0.98×	1.76
AC Milan over 0.5 in 1st half	43.3%	43.3%	42.1%	1.03×	2.31
AC Milan over 1.5 in 1st half	11.1%	9.7%	10.7%	0.91×	10.27

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan scores more in 2nd half	59.0%	59.2%	36.2%	1.64×	1.69
AC Milan scores equally in both	26.6%	27.8%	41.7%	0.67×	3.60
AC Milan scores more in 1st half	14.4%	14.4%	22.2%	0.65×	6.95

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	59.5%	56.5%	44.0%	1.28×	1.77
Parma Calcio 1913 (home no bet)	40.5%	43.5%	56.0%	0.78×	2.30

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan even goals	50.9%	50.7%	56.3%	0.90×	1.97
AC Milan odd goals	49.1%	49.3%	43.8%	1.13×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	40.1%	37.8%	33.8%	1.12×	2.64
HT 1-0	22.8%	24.4%	18.4%	1.33×	4.09
HT 0-1	13.9%	11.0%	18.1%	0.61×	9.06
HT 1-1	7.9%	6.9%	10.3%	0.67×	14.48
HT 2-0	6.4%	6.9%	5.8%	1.20×	14.50
Any other HT score	2.5%	2.4%	3.4%	0.71×	42.11
HT 0-2	2.4%	2.4%	5.4%	0.44×	42.12
HT 2-1	2.2%	2.4%	2.4%	0.99×	42.13
HT 1-2	1.4%	2.4%	2.6%	0.90×	42.19
HT 2-2	0.4%	2.4%	0.7%	3.28×	42.25

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan at HT / AC Milan at FT	30.4%	32.0%	22.0%	1.46×	3.12
Draw at HT / AC Milan at FT	30.2%	32.0%	15.9%	2.02×	3.12
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	12.7%	12.6%	16.1%	0.79×	7.91
Parma Calcio 1913 at HT / Parma Calcio 1913 at FT	7.7%	6.0%	19.1%	0.32×	16.61
Draw at HT / Parma Calcio 1913 at FT	5.5%	6.0%	12.9%	0.47×	16.67
Parma Calcio 1913 at HT / AC Milan at FT	5.4%	6.0%	2.4%	2.49×	16.68
Parma Calcio 1913 at HT / Draw at FT	5.1%	6.0%	5.9%	1.02×	16.69
AC Milan at HT / Draw at FT	2.4%	3.5%	4.7%	0.74×	28.68
AC Milan at HT / Parma Calcio 1913 at FT	0.6%	3.5%	1.9%	1.81×	28.74

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan to score last	67.5%	70.3%	48.2%	1.46×	1.42
Parma Calcio 1913 to score last	26.5%	27.5%	44.0%	0.62×	3.64
No goal scored	6.0%	7.4%	7.9%	0.93×	13.50

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	94.0%	92.7%	92.1%	1.01×	1.08
AC Milan to lead by 1 at any time	76.3%	78.2%	55.3%	1.42×	1.28
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	54.1%	50.9%	43.6%	1.17×	1.96
AC Milan to lead by 2 at any time	47.0%	44.5%	23.9%	1.86×	2.25
Parma Calcio 1913 to lead by 1 at any time	30.0%	25.6%	50.5%	0.51×	3.91
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	25.0%	25.4%	15.1%	1.68×	3.93
AC Milan to lead by 3 at any time	23.6%	19.7%	8.8%	2.24×	5.08
Parma Calcio 1913 to lead by 2 at any time	7.3%	6.7%	20.2%	0.33×	14.91
Parma Calcio 1913 to lead by 3 at any time	1.4%	1.6%	6.5%	0.24×	63.28

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan most corners	62.9%	60.6%	—	—	1.65
Parma Calcio 1913 most corners	26.3%	31.1%	—	—	3.21
Corners level	10.9%	10.4%	—	—	9.58

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.4%	87.4%	89.2%	0.98×	1.14
1-4 goals	78.6%	78.7%	80.8%	0.97×	1.27
2-6 goals	74.8%	72.4%	72.1%	1.00×	1.38
2-5 goals	70.6%	72.4%	70.1%	1.03×	1.38
1-3 goals	62.8%	63.3%	67.5%	0.94×	1.58
2-4 goals	61.7%	63.3%	61.7%	1.03×	1.58
3-6 goals	51.0%	53.2%	47.2%	1.13×	1.88
3-5 goals	46.9%	48.5%	45.2%	1.07×	2.06
2-3 goals	46.0%	48.5%	48.4%	1.00×	2.06
1-2 goals	40.5%	43.6%	44.1%	0.99×	2.30
3-4 goals	38.0%	39.2%	36.8%	1.07×	2.55
4-6 goals	28.7%	30.2%	23.8%	1.27×	3.31
4-5 goals	24.6%	24.5%	21.8%	1.13×	4.08
5-6 goals	13.0%	14.8%	10.6%	1.40×	6.75
7+ goals	2.4%	2.6%	1.0%	2.66×	39.11

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan never behind	64.0%	68.4%	49.5%	1.38×	1.46
Parma Calcio 1913 never behind	17.8%	18.4%	44.7%	0.41×	5.43

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.8%	50.9%	51.6%	0.99×	1.96
Even number of goals	50.2%	49.1%	48.4%	1.01×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	58.1%	57.7%	56.6%	1.02×	1.73
Odd goals in 1st half	41.9%	42.3%	43.4%	0.97×	2.37

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.1%	51.9%	50.6%	1.03×	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.9%	48.1%	49.4%	0.97×	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	94.0%	92.3%	92.1%	1.00×	1.08
Under 5.5 goals	93.4%	92.3%	97.0%	0.95×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	84.5%	82.3%	88.6%	0.93×	1.22
Over 1.5 goals	77.2%	77.3%	73.0%	1.06×	1.29
Under 3.5 goals	68.8%	66.3%	75.4%	0.88×	1.51
Over 2.5 goals	53.5%	52.5%	48.1%	1.09×	1.90
Under 2.5 goals	46.5%	47.5%	51.9%	0.91×	2.11
Over 3.5 goals	31.2%	33.7%	24.6%	1.37×	2.97
Under 1.5 goals	22.8%	22.7%	27.0%	0.84×	4.41
Over 4.5 goals	15.5%	17.7%	11.4%	1.55×	5.65
Over 5.5 goals	6.6%	7.7%	3.0%	2.57×	12.94
Under 0.5 goals	6.0%	7.7%	7.9%	0.97×	12.94

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	97.4%	97.2%	99.0%	0.98×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	92.7%	92.4%	96.7%	0.96×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	81.6%	81.1%	86.8%	0.93×	1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	70.1%	72.4%	64.0%	1.13×	1.38
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	59.9%	55.8%	67.8%	0.82×	1.79
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	40.1%	44.2%	32.2%	1.37×	2.26
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	29.9%	27.6%	36.0%	0.77×	3.62
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	18.4%	18.9%	13.2%	1.44×	5.29
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	7.3%	7.6%	3.3%	2.32×	13.16
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	2.6%	2.8%	1.0%	2.86×	35.58

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	93.5%	92.7%	91.2%	1.02×	1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half	76.8%	78.1%	70.1%	1.11×	1.28
Over 0.5 in 1st half	59.9%	63.8%	66.2%	0.96×	1.57
Under 0.5 in 1st half	40.1%	36.2%	33.8%	1.07×	2.76
Over 1.5 in 1st half	23.2%	21.9%	29.9%	0.73×	4.57
Over 2.5 in 1st half	6.5%	7.3%	8.8%	0.83×	13.70

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	85.1%	85.4%	78.6%	1.09×	1.17
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	70.2%	77.3%	82.5%	0.94×	1.29
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	56.8%	54.9%	43.0%	1.28×	1.82
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	43.2%	45.1%	57.0%	0.79×	2.22
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	29.8%	22.7%	17.5%	1.30×	4.40
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	14.9%	14.6%	21.4%	0.68×	6.84

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Parma Calcio 1913 not to score in both halves	89.4%	85.5%	78.4%	1.09×	1.17
AC Milan not to score in both halves	66.8%	69.8%	75.8%	0.92×	1.43
AC Milan to score in both halves	33.2%	30.2%	24.2%	1.25×	3.31
Parma Calcio 1913 to score in both halves	10.6%	14.5%	21.6%	0.67×	6.91

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	47.6%	50.7%	49.2%	1.03×	1.97
Only AC Milan scores	39.2%	39.9%	22.6%	1.77×	2.51
Only Parma Calcio 1913 scores	7.3%	7.1%	20.6%	0.35×	14.04
Neither team scores	6.0%	7.1%	7.9%	0.90×	14.05

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	23.7%	22.6%	25.0%	0.90×	4.43
Exactly 3 goals	22.3%	22.6%	23.6%	0.96×	4.43
Exactly 1 goals	16.8%	17.5%	19.2%	0.91×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	15.7%	17.5%	13.3%	1.31×	5.73
Exactly 5 goals	8.9%	7.6%	8.5%	0.89×	13.13
6 or more goals	6.6%	7.6%	3.0%	2.53×	13.14
Exactly 0 goals	6.0%	7.6%	7.9%	0.96×	13.14

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
No goals in 1st half	40.1%	37.8%	33.8%	1.12×	2.64
1 goal in 1st half	36.6%	37.4%	36.4%	1.03×	2.67
2 goals in 1st half	16.7%	15.6%	21.3%	0.73×	6.40
3+ goals in 1st half	6.5%	7.3%	8.8%	0.83×	13.70

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	56.8%	54.1%	43.0%	1.26×	1.85
1 goal in 2nd half	28.3%	29.3%	35.7%	0.82×	3.41
No goals in 2nd half	14.9%	14.4%	21.4%	0.67×	6.94

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Parma Calcio 1913 not to win both halves	98.0%	97.2%	91.1%	1.07×	1.03
AC Milan not to win both halves	79.1%	75.6%	89.9%	0.84×	1.32
AC Milan to win both halves	20.9%	24.4%	10.1%	2.41×	4.11
Parma Calcio 1913 to win both halves	2.0%	2.8%	8.9%	0.31×	35.92

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan to win either half	75.0%	73.2%	53.2%	1.37×	1.37
Parma Calcio 1913 to win neither half	72.6%	73.0%	51.6%	1.42×	1.37
Parma Calcio 1913 to win either half	27.4%	27.0%	48.4%	0.56×	3.71
AC Milan to win neither half	25.0%	26.8%	46.8%	0.57×	3.73

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Parma Calcio 1913 not to win to nil	92.8%	92.1%	79.4%	1.16×	1.09
AC Milan not to win to nil	60.8%	66.5%	77.4%	0.86×	1.50
AC Milan to win to nil	39.2%	33.5%	22.6%	1.48×	2.99
Parma Calcio 1913 to win to nil	7.3%	7.9%	20.6%	0.38×	12.66

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan by 1	24.8%	24.1%	22.6%	1.07×	4.15
AC Milan by 3+	21.0%	24.1%	7.7%	3.13×	4.15
AC Milan by 2	20.3%	24.1%	10.0%	2.42×	4.15
Draw	20.2%	24.1%	26.4%	0.91×	4.15
Parma Calcio 1913 by 1	9.7%	7.2%	19.4%	0.37×	13.90
Parma Calcio 1913 by 2	3.1%	2.7%	8.7%	0.31×	36.81
Parma Calcio 1913 by 3+	0.9%	2.7%	5.9%	0.46×	36.88