betaider.com
Sign in

AC Milan v Roma — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 29 December 2024 · ITA-Serie A · 2425

Serie A xG

AC Milan
1–1
2.26 – 1.61 xG
Roma
Shots
21 – 12
On target
7 – 5
Shots in box
11 – 8
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.13
Set-piece xG
0.42 – 0.36
Goals − xG
-1.27 – -0.61
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.61.31.92.50'15'30'45'60'75'90'Tijjani Reijnders 15' — goalPaulo Dybala 22' — goal
AC Milan 2.27 xGRoma 1.61 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Paulo Dybala 2' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Tijjani Reijnders 5' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Set Piece)Mats Hummels 6' — Saved Shot (0.31 xG, Set Piece)Artem Dovbyk 10' — Shot On Post (0.10 xG, Open Play)Matteo Gabbia 13' — Missed Shot (0.12 xG, Set Piece)Tijjani Reijnders 15' — Goal (0.38 xG, Open Play)Álvaro Morata 17' — Missed Shot (0.85 xG, Open Play)Theo Hernández 20' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Paulo Dybala 22' — Goal (0.37 xG, Open Play)Tijjani Reijnders 31' — Saved Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Álvaro Morata 32' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, From Corner)Mats Hummels 40' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Samuel Chukwueze 41' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Theo Hernández 45' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Paulo Dybala 46' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Artem Dovbyk 48' — Saved Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Youssouf Fofana 49' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Youssouf Fofana 51' — Missed Shot (0.12 xG, From Corner)Ismael Bennacer 53' — Saved Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Samuel Chukwueze 53' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Samuel Chukwueze 54' — Blocked Shot (0.13 xG, Open Play)Malick Thiaw 55' — Blocked Shot (0.09 xG, From Corner)Samuel Chukwueze 55' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Ismael Bennacer 63' — Saved Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Theo Hernández 63' — Blocked Shot (0.16 xG, Open Play)Theo Hernández 68' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Emerson 75' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Niccolò Pisilli 77' — Missed Shot (0.12 xG, Open Play)Emerson 79' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Paulo Dybala 83' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Stephan El Shaarawy 84' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, From Corner)Lorenzo Pellegrini 88' — Missed Shot (0.47 xG, Open Play)Paulo Dybala 90' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)
AC Milan attacking right Roma attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
2' Roma Paulo Dybala 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Angelino
5' AC Milan Tijjani Reijnders 0.02 Set Piece Right Foot Saved Shot Theo Hernández
6' Roma Mats Hummels 0.31 Set Piece — Saved Shot Paulo Dybala
10' Roma Artem Dovbyk 0.10 Open Play Left Foot Shot On Post Alexis Saelemaekers
13' AC Milan Matteo Gabbia 0.12 Set Piece — Missed Shot Theo Hernández
15' AC Milan Tijjani Reijnders 0.38 Open Play Right Foot Goal Youssouf Fofana
17' AC Milan Álvaro Morata 0.85 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Alejandro Jiménez
20' AC Milan Theo Hernández 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Samuel Chukwueze
22' Roma Paulo Dybala 0.37 Open Play Right Foot Goal Artem Dovbyk
31' AC Milan Tijjani Reijnders 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Samuel Chukwueze
32' AC Milan Álvaro Morata 0.06 From Corner — Missed Shot Tijjani Reijnders
40' Roma Mats Hummels 0.02 From Corner — Missed Shot —
41' AC Milan Samuel Chukwueze 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Emerson
45' AC Milan Theo Hernández 0.01 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot —
46' Roma Paulo Dybala 0.01 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Artem Dovbyk
48' Roma Artem Dovbyk 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Lorenzo Pellegrini
49' AC Milan Youssouf Fofana 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Emerson
51' AC Milan Youssouf Fofana 0.12 From Corner Left Foot Missed Shot —
53' AC Milan Ismael Bennacer 0.01 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Samuel Chukwueze
53' AC Milan Samuel Chukwueze 0.02 From Corner Left Foot Missed Shot —
54' AC Milan Samuel Chukwueze 0.13 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Youssouf Fofana
55' AC Milan Malick Thiaw 0.09 From Corner Left Foot Blocked Shot —
55' AC Milan Samuel Chukwueze 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Youssouf Fofana
63' AC Milan Ismael Bennacer 0.01 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot —
63' AC Milan Theo Hernández 0.16 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Youssouf Fofana
68' AC Milan Theo Hernández 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Ismael Bennacer
75' AC Milan Emerson 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot —
77' Roma Niccolò Pisilli 0.12 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Paulo Dybala
79' AC Milan Emerson 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Tammy Abraham
83' Roma Paulo Dybala 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Lorenzo Pellegrini
84' Roma Stephan El Shaarawy 0.03 From Corner Right Foot Saved Shot Paulo Dybala
88' Roma Lorenzo Pellegrini 0.47 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Paulo Dybala
90' Roma Paulo Dybala 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Leandro Paredes

Players

AC Milan

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Tijjani Reijnders AMC 90 1 0 3 1 0.48 0.06 1.52
Theo Hernández DL 90 0 0 4 2 0.23 0.14 0.40
Youssouf Fofana DMC 90 0 1 2 4 0.13 0.70 0.91
Matteo Gabbia DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.12 0.00 0.64
Malick Thiaw DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.09 0.00 1.23
Emerson DR 90 0 0 2 2 0.06 0.06 0.46
Alejandro Jiménez AML 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.85 1.19
Mike Maignan GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.33
Álvaro Morata FW 87 0 0 2 0 0.90 0.00 1.23
Samuel Chukwueze AMR 63 0 0 4 3 0.21 0.14 0.35
Filippo Terracciano DMC 47 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.08
Ismael Bennacer Sub 43 0 0 2 1 0.03 0.02 0.27
Tammy Abraham Sub 27 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.01 0.18
Francesco Camarda Sub 3 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Roma

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Paulo Dybala AMC 90 1 0 5 4 0.49 0.93 1.17
Niccolò Pisilli AMC 90 0 0 1 0 0.12 0.00 0.67
Mile Svilar GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.05
Gianluca Mancini DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.21
Evan Ndicka DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.54
Angelino DML 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.04 0.56
Leandro Paredes MC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.66
Artem Dovbyk FW 87 0 1 2 2 0.17 0.38 0.55
Alexis Saelemaekers DMR 80 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.10 0.59
Mats Hummels DC 47 0 0 2 0 0.33 0.00 0.47
Kouadio Kone MC 47 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.51
Lorenzo Pellegrini Sub 43 0 0 1 2 0.47 0.13 0.71
Mehmet Zeki Çelik Sub 43 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.05
Stephan El Shaarawy Sub 10 0 0 1 0 0.03 0.00 0.51
Eldor Shomurodov Sub 3 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
betaider.com

Sport

Football Basketball Tennis Ice hockey Baseball

Football sections

Preferences

Appearance
Aider Reading the Football model · online
Open the Radar
Bet slip
Open full page
↑↓ to move ↵ to open esc to close See all results

On this page

Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

Press esc to close Read the full guide