AC Milan v Roma — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 2 November 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
17 – 20
On target
7 – 6
Shots in box
13 – 14
xG per shot
0.25 – 0.10
Set-piece xG
0.85 – 1.27
Goals − xG
-3.25 – -1.95
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.AC Milan win
32.0%
Draw
31.2%
Roma win
36.8%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
AC Milan are finishing below their chances — 3.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.0 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWDLLWLWWD last 10
scored 11
from 14.0 xG
conceded 13
from 15.0 xG
Roma are conceding fewer than expected — 2.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDWWWWWWWW last 10
scored 27
from 27.0 xG
conceded 4
from 6.6 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.06–1.16 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.50–1.33 | 1-1 12% | 54% | 57% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
AC Milan 4.25 xGRoma 1.95 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
AC Milan attacking right
Roma attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Roma |
Bryan Cristante | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Neil El Aynaoui |
| 6' |
Roma |
Neil El Aynaoui | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 9' |
Roma |
Evan Ndicka | 0.13 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Matìas Soulè Malvano |
| 14' |
Roma |
Wesley | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Bryan Cristante |
| 16' |
Roma |
Paulo Dybala | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Mehmet Zeki Çelik |
| 18' |
Roma |
Matìas Soulè Malvano | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Gianluca Mancini |
| 18' |
Roma |
Wesley | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Matìas Soulè Malvano |
| 19' |
 AC Milan |
Strahinja Pavlovic | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 24' |
Roma |
Neil El Aynaoui | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Bryan Cristante |
| 26' |
AC Milan |
Rafael Leão | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 28' |
Roma |
Matìas Soulè Malvano | 0.03 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Neil El Aynaoui |
| 31' |
Roma |
Paulo Dybala | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Wesley |
| 35' |
Roma |
Evan Ndicka | 0.01 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Wesley |
| 37' |
AC Milan |
Matteo Gabbia | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Luka Modric |
| 38' |
AC Milan |
Strahinja Pavlovic | 0.63 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Rafael Leão |
| 43' |
AC Milan |
Christopher Nkunku | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Youssouf Fofana |
| 44' |
AC Milan |
Youssouf Fofana | 0.57 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Davide Bartesaghi |
| 45' |
AC Milan |
Rafael Leão | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Christopher Nkunku |
| 45' |
AC Milan |
Samuele Ricci | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 46' |
AC Milan |
Youssouf Fofana | 0.45 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 48' |
AC Milan |
Rafael Leão | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Alexis Saelemaekers |
| 49' |
AC Milan |
Christopher Nkunku | 0.74 | From Corner | — | Shot On Post | Luka Modric |
| 51' |
AC Milan |
Samuele Ricci | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Christopher Nkunku |
| 52' |
AC Milan |
Rafael Leão | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 55' |
Roma |
Bryan Cristante | 0.09 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Paulo Dybala |
| 59' |
Roma |
Mario Hermoso | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Bryan Cristante |
| 62' |
Roma |
Lorenzo Pellegrini | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Paulo Dybala |
| 67' |
AC Milan |
Davide Bartesaghi | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Youssouf Fofana |
| 67' |
AC Milan |
Rafael Leão | 0.66 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 67' |
AC Milan |
Samuele Ricci | 0.71 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 69' |
Roma |
Leon Bailey | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Lorenzo Pellegrini |
| 69' |
Roma |
Mehmet Zeki Çelik | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Kouadio Kone |
| 75' |
AC Milan |
Davide Bartesaghi | 0.01 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 77' |
Roma |
Lorenzo Pellegrini | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Artem Dovbyk |
| 79' |
Roma |
Lorenzo Pellegrini | 0.16 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 81' |
Roma |
Paulo Dybala | 0.76 | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — | |
| 92' |
Roma |
Evan Ndicka | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Wesley |
Players
AC Milan
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Youssouf Fofana MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1.02 | 0.08 | 1.19 |
| Rafael Leão FW | 90 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0.89 | 0.63 | 2.09 |
| Samuele Ricci MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.79 | 0.00 | 1.42 |
| Strahinja Pavlovic DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.65 | 0.00 | 0.78 |
| Matteo Gabbia DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Davide Bartesaghi DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.57 | 1.22 |
| Mike Maignan GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Koni de Winter DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Luka Modric MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.82 | 0.13 |
| Alexis Saelemaekers DMR | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 1.25 |
| Christopher Nkunku FW | 85 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.79 | 0.06 | 0.14 |
| Ruben Loftus-Cheek Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Zachary Athekame Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Fikayo Tomori Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Roma
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Cristante MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.18 | 0.18 | 0.50 |
| Evan Ndicka DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Wesley DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.12 | 0.08 | 0.27 |
| Gianluca Mancini DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.18 |
| Kouadio Kone MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.27 |
| Mile Svilar GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Paulo Dybala FW | 85 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.88 | 0.13 | 0.34 |
| Mario Hermoso DC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Mehmet Zeki Çelik DMR | 78 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.09 | 0.44 |
| Neil El Aynaoui MC | 52 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.12 | 0.35 |
| Matìas Soulè Malvano FW | 52 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.19 | 0.30 |
| Lorenzo Pellegrini Sub | 38 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.23 | 0.06 | 0.07 |
| Leon Bailey Sub | 38 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Artem Dovbyk Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Konstantinos Tsimikas Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Tommaso Baldanzi Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |