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AC Milan v Torino — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 17 August 2024 · ITA-Serie A · 2425

Serie A xG

2–2
2.10 – 0.88 xG
Shots
27 – 7
On target
5 – 3
Shots in box
15 – 3
xG per shot
0.08 – 0.13
Set-piece xG
0.78 – 0.07
Goals − xG
-0.14 – +1.12
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.61.21.82.40'15'30'45'60'75'90'Duván Zapata 67' — goalÁlvaro Morata 88' — goalNoah Okafor 94' — goal
AC Milan 2.14 xGTorino 0.88 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Rafael Leão 5' — Blocked Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Malick Thiaw 6' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, From Corner)Rafael Leão 6' — Missed Shot (0.60 xG, From Corner)Duván Zapata 14' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Duván Zapata 17' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Rafael Leão 20' — Saved Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Rafael Leão 24' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Malick Thiaw 29' — Own Goal (0.00 xG, Open Play)Raoul Bellanova 29' — Shot On Post (0.01 xG, Open Play)Duván Zapata 37' — Saved Shot (0.07 xG, From Corner)Rafael Leão 40' — Saved Shot (0.18 xG, Open Play)Ivan Ilic 43' — Saved Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Samuel Chukwueze 44' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Christian Pulisic 47' — Missed Shot (0.20 xG, Open Play)Christian Pulisic 48' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Luka Jovic 48' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Samuel Chukwueze 58' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Duván Zapata 67' — Goal (0.64 xG, Open Play)Christian Pulisic 71' — Missed Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Rafael Leão 73' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Yunus Musah 73' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Yunus Musah 74' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Fikayo Tomori 75' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Mergim Vojvoda 77' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Rafael Leão 80' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Tijjani Reijnders 80' — Saved Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Tijjani Reijnders 88' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Yunus Musah 88' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Álvaro Morata 88' — Goal (0.10 xG, Open Play)Yunus Musah 93' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Noah Okafor 94' — Goal (0.31 xG, Open Play)Theo Hernández 97' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Set Piece)Yunus Musah 97' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Tijjani Reijnders 98' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)
AC Milan attacking right Torino attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
5' AC Milan Rafael Leão 0.09 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Christian Pulisic
6' AC Milan Malick Thiaw 0.05 From Corner Blocked Shot Ismael Bennacer
6' AC Milan Rafael Leão 0.60 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot
14' Torino Duván Zapata 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Karol Linetty
17' Torino Duván Zapata 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Antonio Sanabria
20' AC Milan Rafael Leão 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot
24' AC Milan Rafael Leão 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Alexis Saelemaekers
29' AC Milan Malick Thiaw 0.00 Open Play Left Foot Own Goal
29' Torino Raoul Bellanova 0.01 Open Play Shot On Post Duván Zapata
37' Torino Duván Zapata 0.07 From Corner Saved Shot Valentino Lazaro
40' AC Milan Rafael Leão 0.18 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Ruben Loftus-Cheek
43' Torino Ivan Ilic 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Raoul Bellanova
44' AC Milan Samuel Chukwueze 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Christian Pulisic
47' AC Milan Christian Pulisic 0.20 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
48' AC Milan Christian Pulisic 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Samuel Chukwueze
48' AC Milan Luka Jovic 0.04 Open Play Missed Shot Rafael Leão
58' AC Milan Samuel Chukwueze 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Rafael Leão
67' Torino Duván Zapata 0.64 Open Play Goal Valentino Lazaro
71' AC Milan Christian Pulisic 0.08 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Rafael Leão
73' AC Milan Rafael Leão 0.02 Open Play Blocked Shot Fikayo Tomori
73' AC Milan Yunus Musah 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot
74' AC Milan Yunus Musah 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Ruben Loftus-Cheek
75' AC Milan Fikayo Tomori 0.02 From Corner Missed Shot Yunus Musah
77' Torino Mergim Vojvoda 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Samuele Ricci
80' AC Milan Rafael Leão 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Theo Hernández
80' AC Milan Tijjani Reijnders 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot
88' AC Milan Tijjani Reijnders 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot
88' AC Milan Yunus Musah 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Tijjani Reijnders
88' AC Milan Álvaro Morata 0.10 Open Play Right Foot Goal
93' AC Milan Yunus Musah 0.02 From Corner Right Foot Blocked Shot Rafael Leão
94' AC Milan Noah Okafor 0.31 Open Play Right Foot Goal Yunus Musah
97' AC Milan Theo Hernández 0.06 Set Piece Left Foot Blocked Shot Álvaro Morata
97' AC Milan Yunus Musah 0.02 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot Theo Hernández
98' AC Milan Tijjani Reijnders 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Alexis Saelemaekers

Players

AC Milan

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Rafael Leão AML 90 0 0 7 4 1.00 0.21 0.64
Malick Thiaw DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.05 0.00 0.00
Fikayo Tomori DC 90 0 0 1 1 0.02 0.02 0.22
Alexis Saelemaekers DL 90 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.06 0.68
Ruben Loftus-Cheek DMC 90 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.20 0.38
Mike Maignan GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Davide Calabria DR 87 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.34
Christian Pulisic AMC 77 0 0 3 2 0.31 0.11 0.45
Samuel Chukwueze AMR 64 0 0 2 1 0.09 0.03 0.16
Luka Jovic FW 64 0 0 1 0 0.04 0.00 0.04
Ismael Bennacer DMC 63 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.05 0.14
Tijjani Reijnders Sub 27 0 0 3 1 0.04 0.02 0.46
Álvaro Morata Sub 26 1 0 1 1 0.10 0.06 0.12
Theo Hernández Sub 26 0 0 1 2 0.06 0.08 0.49
Yunus Musah Sub 13 0 1 5 2 0.11 0.33 0.37
Noah Okafor Sub 3 1 0 1 0 0.31 0.00 0.31

Torino

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Mergim Vojvoda DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.12
Raoul Bellanova DMR 90 0 0 1 1 0.01 0.07 0.15
Samuele Ricci MC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.04
Saúl Coco DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.10
Valentino Lazaro DML 90 0 1 0 2 0.00 0.71 0.72
Vanja Milinkovic-Savic GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.01
Karol Linetty MC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.05
Adam Masina DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.12
Duván Zapata FW 76 1 0 4 1 0.78 0.01 0.79
Ivan Ilic MC 75 0 0 1 0 0.07 0.00 0.74
Antonio Sanabria FW 64 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.05 0.06
Che Adams Sub 26 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.02
Adrien Tameze Sub 15 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Yann Karamoh Sub 14 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.02
Saba Sazonov Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ali Dembélé Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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