AC Milan v Udinese — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 11 April 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
21 – 12
On target
3 – 6
Shots in box
14 – 8
xG per shot
0.08 – 0.13
Set-piece xG
0.11 – 0.00
Goals − xG
-1.63 – +1.43
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.AC Milan win
64.2%
Draw
22.0%
Udinese win
13.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
AC Milan are conceding fewer than expected — 2.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWLWWDDWDW last 10
scored 19
from 19.8 xG
conceded 13
from 15.9 xG
Udinese are conceding fewer than expected — 3.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WLLDWLLLLL last 10
scored 11
from 11.3 xG
conceded 18
from 21.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.90–0.75 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.17–0.92 | 2-0 11% | 60% | 53% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
AC Milan 1.63 xGUdinese 1.57 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
AC Milan attacking right
Udinese attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Udinese |
Nicolo Zaniolo | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Arthur Atta |
| 8' |
 AC Milan |
Christian Pulisic | 0.15 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Davide Bartesaghi |
| 11' |
AC Milan |
Rafael Leão | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Alexis Saelemaekers |
| 11' |
Udinese |
Jesper Karlström | 0.13 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Hassane Kamara |
| 14' |
AC Milan |
Christian Pulisic | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Luka Modric |
| 20' |
AC Milan |
Rafael Leão | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 26' |
AC Milan |
Davide Bartesaghi | 0.00 | Open Play | Left Foot | Own Goal | — |
| 27' |
AC Milan |
Rafael Leão | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Christian Pulisic |
| 31' |
AC Milan |
Rafael Leão | 0.67 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Christian Pulisic |
| 32' |
AC Milan |
Christian Pulisic | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 34' |
Udinese |
Keinan Davis | 0.30 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jurgen Ekkelenkamp |
| 36' |
Udinese |
Jurgen Ekkelenkamp | 0.54 | Open Play | — | Goal | Nicolo Zaniolo |
| 43' |
AC Milan |
Rafael Leão | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Alexis Saelemaekers |
| 44' |
Udinese |
Nicolo Zaniolo | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Keinan Davis |
| 45' |
Udinese |
Thomas Thiesson Kristensen | 0.14 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 49' |
AC Milan |
Luka Modric | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Rafael Leão |
| 50' |
AC Milan |
Alexis Saelemaekers | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 50' |
AC Milan |
Samuele Ricci | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Davide Bartesaghi |
| 53' |
AC Milan |
Adrien Rabiot | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Luka Modric |
| 55' |
AC Milan |
Niclas Füllkrug | 0.13 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 55' |
Udinese |
Jurgen Ekkelenkamp | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jesper Karlström |
| 59' |
AC Milan |
Strahinja Pavlovic | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Samuele Ricci |
| 59' |
Udinese |
Kingsley Ehizibue | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 62' |
Udinese |
Hassane Kamara | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 63' |
AC Milan |
Adrien Rabiot | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Alexis Saelemaekers |
| 64' |
AC Milan |
Adrien Rabiot | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Koni de Winter |
| 66' |
AC Milan |
Youssouf Fofana | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Niclas Füllkrug |
| 67' |
AC Milan |
Rafael Leão | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Strahinja Pavlovic |
| 69' |
AC Milan |
Rafael Leão | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Christian Pulisic |
| 69' |
AC Milan |
Rafael Leão | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 70' |
Udinese |
Arthur Atta | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Jurgen Ekkelenkamp |
| 72' |
Udinese |
Keinan Davis | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 83' |
Udinese |
Idrissa Gueye | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jurgen Ekkelenkamp |
Players
AC Milan
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrien Rabiot MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.88 |
| Strahinja Pavlovic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 1.13 |
| Alexis Saelemaekers FWR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.04 | 0.10 | 0.98 |
| Mike Maignan GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Koni de Winter DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.88 |
| Davide Bartesaghi DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.19 | 1.00 |
| Rafael Leão FW | 78 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 0.96 | 0.01 | 1.08 |
| Christian Pulisic FWL | 73 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.25 | 0.74 | 1.18 |
| Luka Modric MC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 1.20 |
| Samuele Ricci MC | 61 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Zachary Athekame DR | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.70 |
| Niclas Füllkrug Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.10 | 0.23 |
| Youssouf Fofana Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Christopher Nkunku Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ardon Jashari Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ruben Loftus-Cheek Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Udinese
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Thiesson Kristensen DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Jesper Karlström MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.01 | 0.22 |
| Kingsley Ehizibue DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.76 |
| Hassane Kamara DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.13 | 0.17 |
| Christian Kabasele DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Oumar Solet DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Maduka Okoye GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Jurgen Ekkelenkamp ML | 87 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.55 | 0.48 | 1.04 |
| Arthur Atta MC | 86 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.04 | 0.42 |
| Keinan Davis FW | 77 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.38 | 0.01 | 1.19 |
| Nicolo Zaniolo MR | 67 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.54 | 0.74 |
| Jakub Piotrowski Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Idrissa Gueye Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Oier Zarraga Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lennon Miller Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |