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AC Milan v Venezia — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 14 September 2024 · ITA-Serie A · 2425

Serie A xG

4–0
2.19 – 0.26 xG
Shots
12 – 6
On target
8 – 1
Shots in box
7 – 0
xG per shot
0.18 – 0.04
Set-piece xG
1.61 – 0.00
Goals − xG
+1.81 – -0.26
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.61.21.82.50'15'30'45'60'75'90'Theo Hernández 1' — goalYoussouf Fofana 15' — goalChristian Pulisic 24' — goalTammy Abraham 28' — goal
AC Milan 2.19 xGVenezia 0.26 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Theo Hernández 1' — Goal (0.07 xG, Open Play)Tijjani Reijnders 10' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Gaetano Oristanio 11' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Hans Nicolussi Caviglia 14' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Youssouf Fofana 15' — Goal (0.04 xG, From Corner)Tijjani Reijnders 21' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Christian Pulisic 24' — Goal (0.76 xG, )Tammy Abraham 28' — Goal (0.76 xG, )Gaetano Oristanio 38' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Gaetano Oristanio 41' — Saved Shot (0.12 xG, Open Play)Antonio Candela 46' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Rafael Leão 48' — Saved Shot (0.24 xG, Open Play)Matteo Gabbia 51' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Set Piece)Alfred Duncan 54' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Christian Pulisic 67' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Ruben Loftus-Cheek 76' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Noah Okafor 86' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Ruben Loftus-Cheek 93' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)
AC Milan attacking right Venezia attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
1' AC Milan Theo Hernández 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Goal Rafael Leão
10' AC Milan Tijjani Reijnders 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Christian Pulisic
11' Venezia Gaetano Oristanio 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Hans Nicolussi Caviglia
14' Venezia Hans Nicolussi Caviglia 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Jay Idzes
15' AC Milan Youssouf Fofana 0.04 From Corner Goal Christian Pulisic
21' AC Milan Tijjani Reijnders 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot
24' AC Milan Christian Pulisic 0.76 Right Foot Goal
28' AC Milan Tammy Abraham 0.76 Right Foot Goal
38' Venezia Gaetano Oristanio 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot
41' Venezia Gaetano Oristanio 0.12 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Hans Nicolussi Caviglia
46' Venezia Antonio Candela 0.01 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot
48' AC Milan Rafael Leão 0.24 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Ruben Loftus-Cheek
51' AC Milan Matteo Gabbia 0.04 Set Piece Missed Shot Rafael Leão
54' Venezia Alfred Duncan 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Gianluca Busio
67' AC Milan Christian Pulisic 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Emerson
76' AC Milan Ruben Loftus-Cheek 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Christian Pulisic
86' AC Milan Noah Okafor 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Theo Hernández
93' AC Milan Ruben Loftus-Cheek 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Emerson

Players

AC Milan

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Ruben Loftus-Cheek MC 90 0 0 2 1 0.10 0.24 0.47
Theo Hernández DL 90 1 0 1 1 0.07 0.03 0.30
Matteo Gabbia DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.04 0.00 0.13
Emerson DR 90 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.11 0.19
Mike Maignan GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.09
Strahinja Pavlovic DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.37
Christian Pulisic FWR 81 1 1 2 3 0.80 0.14 0.14
Youssouf Fofana MC 81 1 0 1 0 0.04 0.00 0.06
Tammy Abraham FW 76 1 0 1 0 0.76 0.00 0.06
Rafael Leão FWL 66 0 1 1 2 0.24 0.11 0.36
Tijjani Reijnders MC 65 0 0 2 0 0.10 0.00 0.10
Noah Okafor Sub 25 0 0 1 0 0.03 0.00 0.18
Álvaro Morata Sub 24 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.04
Yunus Musah Sub 14 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.09
Samuel Chukwueze Sub 9 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.09
Kevin Zeroli Sub 9 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.09

Venezia

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Antonio Candela DR 90 0 0 1 0 0.01 0.00 0.01
Joël Schingtienne DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Jesse Joronen GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Jay Idzes DC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.14
Michael Svoboda DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.02
Francesco Zampano DL 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.14
Gianluca Busio ML 81 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.03 0.14
Joel Pohjanpalo FW 81 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Hans Nicolussi Caviglia MC 75 0 0 1 2 0.02 0.13 0.15
Gaetano Oristanio MR 66 0 0 3 0 0.20 0.00 0.23
Alfred Duncan MC 66 0 0 1 0 0.03 0.00 0.14
Issa Doumbia Sub 24 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
John Yeboah Sub 24 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Magnus Kofod Andersen Sub 9 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Antonio Raimondo Sub 9 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Franco Ezequiel Carboni Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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