AC Milan v Venezia — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 28 August 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2627
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
16 – 10
On target
5 – 2
Shots in box
11 – 7
xG per shot
0.20 – 0.05
Set-piece xG
0.76 – 0.07
Goals − xG
-1.22 – -0.52
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.AC Milan win
58.9%
Draw
23.0%
Venezia win
18.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
AC Milan are conceding fewer than expected — 2.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWLWWDDWDW last 10
scored 19
from 19.8 xG
conceded 13
from 15.9 xG
Venezia are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WLLLLLLLLW last 10
scored 10
from 16.4 xG
conceded 23
from 23.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.75–0.85 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.11–0.87 | 2-0 11% | 57% | 51% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
AC Milan 3.22 xGVenezia 0.52 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
AC Milan attacking right
Venezia attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 AC Milan |
Gonçalo Ramos | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ruben Loftus-Cheek |
| 4' |
AC Milan |
Alphadjo Cissè | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Yunus Musah |
| 11' |
AC Milan |
Gonçalo Ramos | 0.28 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Samuel Chukwueze |
| 18' |
 Venezia |
Akor Adams | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | John Yeboah |
| 21' |
AC Milan |
Gonçalo Ramos | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ruben Loftus-Cheek |
| 23' |
Venezia |
John Yeboah | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 32' |
AC Milan |
Gonçalo Ramos | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ruben Loftus-Cheek |
| 36' |
Venezia |
John Yeboah | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Akor Adams |
| 39' |
AC Milan |
Koni de Winter | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Luka Modric |
| 41' |
AC Milan |
Gonçalo Ramos | 0.38 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Davide Bartesaghi |
| 43' |
AC Milan |
Samuel Chukwueze | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 48' |
Venezia |
Antoine Hainaut | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ridgeciano Haps |
| 50' |
AC Milan |
Gonçalo Ramos | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mario Gila |
| 51' |
AC Milan |
Koni de Winter | 0.09 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Luka Modric |
| 54' |
AC Milan |
Yunus Musah | 0.60 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Shot On Post | — |
| 59' |
AC Milan |
Gonçalo Ramos | 0.51 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Alexis Saelemaekers |
| 64' |
AC Milan |
Strahinja Pavlovic | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Davide Bartesaghi |
| 66' |
Venezia |
Akor Adams | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | John Yeboah |
| 68' |
AC Milan |
Gonçalo Ramos | 0.36 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Alexis Saelemaekers |
| 72' |
Venezia |
John Yeboah | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 85' |
AC Milan |
Adrien Rabiot | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Samuel Chukwueze |
| 88' |
AC Milan |
Ardon Jashari | 0.52 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Alexis Saelemaekers |
| 88' |
Venezia |
Redouane Halal | 0.00 | Open Play | Left Foot | Own Goal | — |
| 90' |
Venezia |
Akor Adams | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Antoine Hainaut |
| 90' |
Venezia |
Armel Bella Kotchap | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Simon Sohm |
| 92' |
Venezia |
Albion Rrahmani | 0.07 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Gianluca Busio |
Players
AC Milan
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gonçalo Ramos FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 1.80 | 0.00 | 2.38 |
| Yunus Musah MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.60 | 0.03 | 0.23 |
| Koni de Winter DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 0.92 |
| Strahinja Pavlovic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 1.17 |
| Samuel Chukwueze DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.02 | 0.31 | 0.92 |
| Mike Maignan GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Davide Bartesaghi DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.45 | 1.02 |
| Mario Gila DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.60 |
| Luka Modric MC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 0.11 |
| Alphadjo Cissè AMC | 62 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Ruben Loftus-Cheek AMC | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| Adrien Rabiot Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Alexis Saelemaekers Sub | 28 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 1.38 | 1.41 |
| Ardon Jashari Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.52 | 0.00 | 0.55 |
| Estupiñán Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Matteo Gabbia Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Venezia
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Akor Adams FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.25 | 0.01 | 0.26 |
| Antoine Hainaut DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.08 |
| Armel Bella Kotchap DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Joël Schingtienne DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Filip Stankovic GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Gianluca Busio MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.25 |
| John Yeboah FW | 83 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.16 | 0.21 | 0.40 |
| Kike Pérez MC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Ridgeciano Haps DML | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.13 |
| Toma Basic MC | 68 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Bartol Franjic DC | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Redouane Halal Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Simon Sohm Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Thierry Correia Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Albion Rrahmani Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Lion Lauberbach Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |