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ADO Den Haag v SC Cambuur — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 19 September 2026 · NED-Eredivisie · 2627

Eredivisie results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
ADO Den Haag win
62.3%
model 62.9%
Draw
18.9%
model 18.9%
SC Cambuur win
18.8%
model 18.2%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (245 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 2-1 8.5%
  2. 3-1 7.5%
  3. 1-1 7.1%
  4. 2-2 6.1%
  5. 2-0 5.9%

Goals

Over 2.577.3% Under 2.522.7%
BTTS yes71.4% BTTS no28.6%
ADO Den Haag 1+92.9% ADO Den Haag 2+74.2%
SC Cambuur 1+76.0% SC Cambuur 2+41.8%

Expected goals 2.65 – 1.43. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
79/100
Data quality
75/100
Model agreement
92%
★ Best pick
ADO Den Haag & over 2.5
1X2 & Over/Under · usually 29%
51.1% fair odds 1.96
strong signal · 3002 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Over 0.5 in 1st half
Over/Under 1HT
83.8% fair odds 1.19
moderate signal · 579 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • ADO Den Haag carry the stronger rating, 1610 Elo against 1518.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

ADO Den Haag have an estimated 62.3% win probability, against 18.9% for the draw and 18.8% for SC Cambuur. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.65 for ADO Den Haag and 1.43 for SC Cambuur.

Why ADO Den Haag

ADO Den Haag carry the stronger rating, 1610 Elo against 1518.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 18.9%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why SC Cambuur can win

Nothing in the data singles out SC Cambuur.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for ADO Den Haag, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for SC Cambuur, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

ADO Den Haag: 49% possession, 14.2 shots a match, 17.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. SC Cambuur: 53% possession, 15.2 shots a match, 16.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. ADO Den Haag's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-08 10:52 · team_stats 2026-09-08 06:03 · availability 2026-09-08 11:54 · prediction 2026-09-08 11:44 ·

ADO Den Haag are the model's most likely outcome at 62.3%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-1 at 8.5%. Confidence 79/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 2.65–1.43 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 3.06–1.35 3-1 8% 82% 71%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
ADO Den Haag to win 62.8% 61.3% 44.6% 1.38× 1.63
Draw 18.9% 18.0% 25.3% 0.71× 5.54
SC Cambuur to win 18.3% 18.0% 30.3% 0.59× 5.54
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
ADO Den Haag & both teams score 41.3% 41.0% 21.3% 1.93× 2.44
ADO Den Haag & not both score 21.5% 21.5% 23.4% 0.92× 4.65
Draw & both teams score 16.5% 18.2% 21.9% 0.83× 5.49
SC Cambuur & both teams score 13.6% 12.6% 17.3% 0.73× 7.91
SC Cambuur & not both score 4.6% 4.1% 13.2% 0.31× 24.24
Draw & not both score 2.4% 4.1% 3.5% 1.17× 24.29
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
ADO Den Haag & over 1.5 59.1% 57.6% 36.4% 1.58× 1.74
ADO Den Haag & over 2.5 53.1% 51.1% 29.1% 1.75× 1.96
ADO Den Haag & over 3.5 39.4% 36.6% 17.2% 2.14× 2.73
ADO Den Haag & under 3.5 23.5% 21.8% 27.6% 0.79× 4.59
Draw & over 1.5 16.5% 17.7% 21.9% 0.81× 5.66
SC Cambuur & over 1.5 16.6% 17.7% 26.3% 0.67× 5.66
SC Cambuur & over 2.5 14.8% 12.5% 20.5% 0.61× 8.03
Draw & over 2.5 9.3% 7.6% 10.4% 0.73× 13.17
Draw & under 2.5 9.6% 7.6% 15.0% 0.51× 13.17
Draw & over 3.5 9.3% 7.6% 10.4% 0.73× 13.17
Draw & under 3.5 9.6% 7.6% 15.0% 0.51× 13.17
SC Cambuur & over 3.5 9.5% 7.6% 10.4% 0.73× 13.17
ADO Den Haag & under 2.5 9.7% 7.6% 15.6% 0.49× 13.17
SC Cambuur & under 3.5 8.8% 7.6% 20.1% 0.38× 13.17
ADO Den Haag & under 1.5 3.8% 4.3% 8.3% 0.53× 23.00
Draw & under 1.5 2.4% 4.3% 3.5% 1.23× 23.00
SC Cambuur & under 2.5 3.4% 4.3% 10.0% 0.44× 23.00
SC Cambuur & under 1.5 1.7% 4.3% 4.1% 1.05× 23.00
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
ADO Den Haag (1UP) 78.1% 80.1% 1.25
SC Cambuur (1UP) 41.9% 42.9% 2.33
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
ADO Den Haag (2UP) 62.8% 63.7% 1.57
SC Cambuur (2UP) 18.3% 20.0% 5.00
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
ADO Den Haag to win 2nd half 52.4% 47.0% 2.13
2nd half drawn 26.6% 29.6% 3.37
SC Cambuur to win 2nd half 21.1% 22.3% 4.49
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
ADO Den Haag (+0.5) 81.7% 83.1% 69.7% 1.19× 1.20
SC Cambuur (+2.5) 74.9% 72.8% 86.7% 0.84× 1.37
ADO Den Haag (-0.5) 62.8% 62.8% 44.6% 1.41× 1.59
SC Cambuur (+1.5) 56.8% 58.3% 74.6% 0.78× 1.71
ADO Den Haag (-1.5) 43.2% 41.7% 25.4% 1.64× 2.40
SC Cambuur (+0.5) 37.2% 37.2% 55.4% 0.67× 2.69
ADO Den Haag (-2.5) 25.1% 27.2% 13.3% 2.04× 3.68
SC Cambuur (-0.5) 18.3% 16.9% 30.3% 0.56× 5.92
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SC Cambuur to concede 92.9% 92.7% 83.5% 1.11× 1.08
SC Cambuur clean sheet 7.1% 7.3% 16.5% 0.44× 13.70
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SC Cambuur to concede in 1st half 68.0% 69.0% 1.45
SC Cambuur clean sheet in 1st half 32.0% 31.0% 3.22
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SC Cambuur under 6.5 corners 85.3% 85.2% 1.17
SC Cambuur under 5.5 corners 75.8% 75.9% 1.32
SC Cambuur over 2.5 corners 71.4% 71.5% 1.40
SC Cambuur under 4.5 corners 62.6% 61.8% 1.62
SC Cambuur over 3.5 corners 53.8% 53.1% 1.88
SC Cambuur under 3.5 corners 46.2% 46.9% 2.13
SC Cambuur over 4.5 corners 37.4% 38.2% 2.62
SC Cambuur under 2.5 corners 28.6% 28.5% 3.51
SC Cambuur over 5.5 corners 24.2% 24.1% 4.15
SC Cambuur over 6.5 corners 14.7% 14.8% 6.74
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SC Cambuur under 3.5 goals 94.3% 92.1% 94.3% 0.98× 1.09
SC Cambuur under 2.5 goals 82.7% 82.4% 85.0% 0.97× 1.21
SC Cambuur over 0.5 goals 76.0% 76.4% 73.2% 1.04× 1.31
SC Cambuur under 1.5 goals 58.2% 58.4% 58.2% 1.00× 1.71
SC Cambuur over 1.5 goals 41.8% 41.6% 41.8% 0.99× 2.41
SC Cambuur under 0.5 goals 24.0% 23.6% 26.8% 0.88× 4.24
SC Cambuur over 2.5 goals 17.3% 17.6% 15.0% 1.17× 5.69
SC Cambuur over 3.5 goals 5.7% 7.9% 5.7% 1.40× 12.62
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SC Cambuur under 1.5 in 1st half 88.7% 87.0% 1.15
SC Cambuur under 0.5 in 1st half 56.5% 57.1% 1.75
SC Cambuur over 0.5 in 1st half 43.5% 42.9% 2.33
SC Cambuur over 1.5 in 1st half 11.3% 13.0% 7.71
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
ADO Den Haag (away no bet) 76.9% 75.6% 63.8% 1.18× 1.32
Draw (away no bet) 23.1% 24.4% 36.2% 0.67× 4.10
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SC Cambuur even goals 52.9% 53.5% 57.4% 0.93× 1.87
SC Cambuur odd goals 47.1% 46.5% 42.6% 1.09× 2.15
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 65.1% 71.5% 1.40
Both halves over 1.5 goals 34.9% 28.5% 3.50
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 84.9% 80.7% 1.24
Both halves under 1.5 goals 15.1% 19.3% 5.18
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 77.4% 74.0% 1.35
ADO Den Haag to score 2+ in a row 64.1% 59.5% 1.68
Either team to score 3+ in a row 40.1% 45.0% 2.22
ADO Den Haag to score 3+ in a row 34.0% 32.4% 3.09
SC Cambuur to score 2+ in a row 27.3% 27.1% 3.69
SC Cambuur to score 3+ in a row 7.2% 7.8% 12.80
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
ADO Den Haag corners (+3.5) 91.0% 89.6% 1.12
ADO Den Haag corners (+2.5) 85.7% 84.5% 1.18
ADO Den Haag corners (+1.5) 78.4% 74.8% 1.34
SC Cambuur corners (+3.5) 73.0% 70.7% 1.41
SC Cambuur corners (+2.5) 63.4% 61.9% 1.62
SC Cambuur corners (+1.5) 52.6% 52.5% 1.91
ADO Den Haag corners (-1.5) 47.4% 47.5% 2.10
ADO Den Haag corners (-2.5) 36.6% 38.1% 2.63
ADO Den Haag corners (-3.5) 27.0% 29.3% 3.42
SC Cambuur corners (-1.5) 21.6% 25.2% 3.97
SC Cambuur corners (-2.5) 14.3% 15.5% 6.45
SC Cambuur corners (-3.5) 9.0% 10.4% 9.59
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 43.7% 38.7% 2.59
9-11 corners 29.5% 31.2% 3.20
12+ corners 26.8% 31.2% 3.20
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 80.5% 80.8% 1.24
Under 11.5 corners 73.2% 72.6% 1.38
Over 7.5 corners 67.1% 67.7% 1.48
Under 10.5 corners 64.5% 63.4% 1.58
Over 8.5 corners 56.3% 57.8% 1.73
Under 9.5 corners 54.5% 53.3% 1.88
Over 9.5 corners 45.5% 46.7% 2.14
Under 8.5 corners 43.7% 42.2% 2.37
Over 10.5 corners 35.5% 36.6% 2.73
Under 7.5 corners 32.9% 32.3% 3.10
Over 11.5 corners 26.8% 27.4% 3.66
Over 12.5 corners 19.5% 19.2% 5.20
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.8% 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Any other score 14.2% 11.2% 6.6% 1.71× 8.90
1-1 7.1% 7.4% 11.6% 0.64× 13.48
2-0 6.0% 7.4% 7.5% 0.99× 13.49
2-1 8.5% 7.4% 8.0% 0.93× 13.48
2-2 6.1% 7.4% 8.6% 0.86× 13.49
3-0 5.3% 7.4% 4.3% 1.73× 13.49
3-1 7.5% 7.4% 3.7% 2.02× 13.48
3-2 5.4% 7.4% 2.9% 2.55× 13.49
0-0 2.4% 1.7% 3.5% 0.49× 58.10
0-1 1.7% 1.7% 4.1% 0.42× 58.11
0-2 1.7% 1.7% 6.0% 0.29× 58.11
0-3 0.8% 1.7% 2.3% 0.75× 58.11
0-4 0.3% 1.7% 0.9% 1.87× 58.11
1-0 3.8% 1.7% 8.3% 0.21× 58.10
1-2 4.6% 1.7% 8.1% 0.21× 58.10
1-3 2.2% 1.7% 2.6% 0.66× 58.11
1-4 0.8% 1.7% 2.1% 0.80× 58.11
2-3 2.9% 1.7% 2.5% 0.70× 58.10
2-4 1.0% 1.7% 0.5% 3.75× 58.11
3-3 2.6% 1.7% 2.0% 0.86× 58.10
3-4 0.9% 1.7% 0.6% 2.81× 58.11
4-0 3.5% 1.7% 1.8% 0.94× 58.10
4-1 5.0% 1.7% 3.2% 0.54× 58.10
4-2 3.6% 1.7% 1.2% 1.40× 58.10
4-3 1.7% 1.7% 0.6% 2.81× 58.11
4-4 0.6% 1.7% 0.2% 11.24× 58.11
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
ADO Den Haag leading at HT (DNB) 73.0% 74.1% 1.35
SC Cambuur leading at HT (DNB) 27.0% 25.9% 3.87
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
ADO Den Haag or draw (1X) 81.7% 82.0% 69.7% 1.18× 1.22
ADO Den Haag or SC Cambuur (12) 81.1% 82.0% 74.7% 1.10× 1.22
SC Cambuur or draw (X2) 37.2% 38.7% 55.4% 0.70× 2.59
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
ADO Den Haag or draw at HT 81.7% 83.5% 1.20
ADO Den Haag or SC Cambuur at HT 67.9% 67.8% 1.48
SC Cambuur or draw at HT 50.5% 54.0% 1.85
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
ADO Den Haag or draw (1UP) 81.7% 86.1% 1.16
SC Cambuur or draw (1UP) 41.9% 52.9% 1.89
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
ADO Den Haag or draw in 2nd half 78.9% 77.7% 1.29
ADO Den Haag or SC Cambuur in 2nd half 73.4% 70.4% 1.42
SC Cambuur or draw in 2nd half 47.6% 53.0% 1.89
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 49.3% 50.4% 1.98
Neither half drawn 50.7% 49.6% 2.02
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
ADO Den Haag (DNB) 77.5% 76.8% 59.5% 1.29× 1.30
SC Cambuur (DNB) 22.5% 23.2% 40.5% 0.57× 4.31
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
ADO Den Haag to score first 63.4% 64.8% 1.54
SC Cambuur to score first 34.1% 32.9% 3.04
No goal scored 2.4% 4.4% 22.69
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 71.4% 64.8% 60.2% 1.08× 1.54
Not both teams to score 28.6% 35.2% 39.8% 0.88× 2.84
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 64.3% 58.6% 48.7% 1.20× 1.71
Not both score & under 2.5 15.5% 17.2% 28.8% 0.60× 5.80
Not both score & over 2.5 13.1% 11.9% 11.2% 1.06× 8.41
Both score & under 2.5 7.1% 8.5% 11.6% 0.73× 11.82
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 69.0% 67.7% 80.6% 0.84× 1.48
Both teams to score 2+ 31.0% 32.3% 19.4% 1.66× 3.09
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 54.9% 55.7% 1.80
Both teams to score in 2nd half 45.1% 44.3% 2.26
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 38.4% 41.2% 2.43
Both score 2nd half only 31.8% 28.6% 3.50
Both score 1st half only 16.5% 18.7% 5.35
Both score in both halves 13.3% 11.9% 8.39
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 70.3% 73.7% 1.36
Both teams to score by HT 29.7% 26.3% 3.80
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 74.6% 70.1% 1.43
A half without a goal 25.4% 29.9% 3.35
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
4-6 goals 46.3% 46.6% 33.7% 1.38× 2.15
2-3 goals 34.0% 30.9% 46.9% 0.66× 3.24
7+ goals 11.8% 14.9% 4.1% 3.61× 6.69
0-1 goals 7.9% 6.8% 15.6% 0.44× 14.67
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SC Cambuur to score exactly 1 34.2% 32.5% 31.5% 1.03× 3.08
SC Cambuur to score exactly 2 24.5% 23.1% 27.0% 0.86× 4.32
SC Cambuur to score exactly 0 24.0% 23.1% 26.8% 0.86× 4.32
SC Cambuur to score 3+ 17.3% 18.4% 15.0% 1.23× 5.43
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
ADO Den Haag to score 3+ 49.4% 44.7% 23.7% 1.88× 2.24
ADO Den Haag to score exactly 2 24.8% 22.9% 27.0% 0.85× 4.37
ADO Den Haag to score exactly 1 18.7% 18.3% 33.1% 0.55× 5.45
ADO Den Haag to score exactly 0 7.1% 8.9% 16.5% 0.54× 11.29
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
ADO Den Haag leading at HT 49.5% 46.0% 2.17
Draw at HT 32.1% 32.2% 3.10
SC Cambuur leading at HT 18.3% 16.5% 6.05
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
ADO Den Haag -1: 1 43.2% 41.4% 2.41
ADO Den Haag -1: 2 37.2% 36.0% 2.77
ADO Den Haag -1: X 19.7% 17.8% 5.60
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
ADO Den Haag (0:1) 43.2% 40.9% 25.4% 1.61× 2.45
SC Cambuur (0:1) 37.2% 36.2% 55.4% 0.65× 2.77
Draw (0:1) 19.7% 18.2% 19.3% 0.94× 5.51
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SC Cambuur (0:2) 56.8% 59.6% 74.6% 0.80× 1.68
ADO Den Haag (0:2) 25.1% 27.9% 13.3% 2.09× 3.58
Draw (0:2) 18.1% 15.7% 12.3% 1.28× 6.36
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SC Cambuur (0:3) 74.9% 71.9% 86.7% 0.83× 1.39
ADO Den Haag (0:3) 12.5% 11.8% 5.7% 2.08× 8.50
Draw (0:3) 12.6% 11.8% 7.8% 1.51× 8.50
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SC Cambuur (0:4) 87.5% 88.3% 94.3% 0.94× 1.13
Draw (0:4) 7.1% 6.6% 2.6% 2.54× 15.15
ADO Den Haag (0:4) 5.4% 6.6% 3.2% 2.05× 15.18
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
ADO Den Haag (1:0) 81.7% 82.7% 69.7% 1.19× 1.21
Draw (1:0) 10.3% 12.5% 14.9% 0.84× 8.02
SC Cambuur (1:0) 8.0% 7.5% 15.6% 0.48× 13.31
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
ADO Den Haag (2:0) 92.0% 92.9% 84.4% 1.10× 1.08
Draw (2:0) 5.2% 6.7% 8.9% 0.75× 14.99
SC Cambuur (2:0) 2.8% 2.8% 6.9% 0.40× 36.35
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 52.0% 51.5% 1.94
1st half highest scoring 27.4% 26.2% 3.82
Halves equal 20.7% 23.2% 4.32
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
ADO Den Haag to concede 76.0% 77.1% 73.2% 1.05× 1.30
ADO Den Haag clean sheet 24.0% 22.9% 26.8% 0.86× 4.36
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
ADO Den Haag clean sheet in 1st half 56.5% 57.0% 1.76
ADO Den Haag to concede in 1st half 43.5% 43.0% 2.33
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
ADO Den Haag over 2.5 corners 84.7% 80.9% 1.24
ADO Den Haag over 3.5 corners 72.0% 71.9% 1.39
ADO Den Haag under 6.5 corners 68.8% 66.7% 1.50
ADO Den Haag over 4.5 corners 57.6% 57.5% 1.74
ADO Den Haag under 5.5 corners 56.5% 57.5% 1.74
ADO Den Haag over 5.5 corners 43.5% 42.5% 2.35
ADO Den Haag under 4.5 corners 42.4% 42.5% 2.35
ADO Den Haag over 6.5 corners 31.2% 33.3% 3.00
ADO Den Haag under 3.5 corners 28.0% 28.1% 3.56
ADO Den Haag under 2.5 corners 15.3% 19.1% 5.25
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
ADO Den Haag over 0.5 goals 92.9% 92.3% 83.5% 1.11× 1.08
ADO Den Haag over 1.5 goals 74.2% 73.2% 50.5% 1.45× 1.37
ADO Den Haag under 3.5 goals 72.5% 73.2% 89.1% 0.82× 1.37
ADO Den Haag under 2.5 goals 50.6% 53.3% 76.3% 0.70× 1.88
ADO Den Haag over 2.5 goals 49.4% 46.7% 23.7% 1.97× 2.14
ADO Den Haag over 3.5 goals 27.5% 26.8% 10.9% 2.47× 3.73
ADO Den Haag under 1.5 goals 25.8% 26.8% 49.5% 0.54× 3.73
ADO Den Haag under 0.5 goals 7.1% 7.7% 16.5% 0.46× 13.04
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
ADO Den Haag under 1.5 in 1st half 68.4% 69.2% 1.45
ADO Den Haag over 0.5 in 1st half 68.0% 69.1% 1.45
ADO Den Haag under 0.5 in 1st half 32.0% 30.9% 3.24
ADO Den Haag over 1.5 in 1st half 31.6% 30.8% 3.24
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw (home no bet) 50.9% 52.1% 45.5% 1.15× 1.92
SC Cambuur (home no bet) 49.1% 47.9% 54.5% 0.88× 2.09
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
ADO Den Haag even goals 50.3% 50.9% 51.1% 1.00× 1.96
ADO Den Haag odd goals 49.7% 49.1% 48.9% 1.00× 2.04
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 1-0 20.5% 22.1% 4.52
HT 0-0 18.2% 20.0% 4.99
Any other HT score 12.6% 10.9% 9.14
HT 1-1 11.9% 10.9% 9.14
HT 2-0 11.7% 10.9% 9.15
HT 0-1 10.2% 10.9% 9.16
HT 2-1 6.7% 8.0% 12.47
HT 1-2 3.4% 2.5% 40.40
HT 0-2 2.9% 2.5% 40.42
HT 2-2 1.9% 2.5% 40.46
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
ADO Den Haag at HT / ADO Den Haag at FT 42.3% 39.7% 2.52
Draw at HT / ADO Den Haag at FT 16.4% 17.2% 5.82
SC Cambuur at HT / SC Cambuur at FT 9.7% 6.5% 15.50
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 9.4% 6.4% 15.51
Draw at HT / SC Cambuur at FT 6.4% 6.4% 15.57
ADO Den Haag at HT / Draw at FT 5.1% 6.4% 15.60
SC Cambuur at HT / Draw at FT 4.4% 3.7% 27.27
SC Cambuur at HT / ADO Den Haag at FT 4.2% 3.7% 27.28
ADO Den Haag at HT / SC Cambuur at FT 2.2% 3.7% 27.33
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
ADO Den Haag to score last 63.5% 58.5% 1.71
SC Cambuur to score last 34.1% 34.3% 2.91
No goal scored 2.4% 4.4% 22.69
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 97.6% 95.6% 1.05
ADO Den Haag to lead by 1 at any time 78.1% 79.8% 1.25
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 67.1% 68.4% 1.46
ADO Den Haag to lead by 2 at any time 52.7% 50.8% 1.97
SC Cambuur to lead by 1 at any time 41.9% 41.3% 2.42
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 34.9% 31.8% 3.15
ADO Den Haag to lead by 3 at any time 30.2% 31.6% 3.16
SC Cambuur to lead by 2 at any time 15.3% 17.3% 5.79
SC Cambuur to lead by 3 at any time 4.7% 2.5% 39.97
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
ADO Den Haag most corners 58.6% 55.6% 1.80
SC Cambuur most corners 30.8% 34.2% 2.93
Corners level 10.6% 10.4% 9.63
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-6 goals 80.3% 82.0% 80.4% 1.02× 1.22
1-5 goals 74.9% 72.1% 87.6% 0.82× 1.39
2-5 goals 69.5% 68.2% 75.5% 0.90× 1.47
3-6 goals 65.5% 68.2% 55.7% 1.22× 1.47
1-4 goals 59.0% 58.8% 75.8% 0.78× 1.70
3-5 goals 54.7% 52.9% 50.8% 1.04× 1.89
2-4 goals 53.5% 52.9% 63.7% 0.83× 1.89
4-6 goals 46.3% 47.4% 33.7% 1.41× 2.11
1-3 goals 39.4% 39.0% 59.0% 0.66× 2.56
3-4 goals 38.7% 39.0% 39.1% 1.00× 2.56
4-5 goals 35.5% 39.0% 28.8% 1.35× 2.56
2-3 goals 34.0% 34.6% 46.9% 0.74× 2.89
5-6 goals 26.8% 28.5% 16.8% 1.69× 3.51
1-2 goals 20.3% 23.8% 36.9% 0.64× 4.20
7+ goals 11.8% 13.5% 4.1% 3.27× 7.40
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
ADO Den Haag never behind 55.7% 61.8% 1.62
SC Cambuur never behind 19.5% 20.7% 4.84
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even number of goals 51.5% 50.0% 51.0% 0.98× 2.00
Odd number of goals 48.5% 50.0% 49.0% 1.02× 2.00
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 51.9% 51.5% 1.94
Odd goals in 1st half 48.1% 48.5% 2.06
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 50.9% 51.5% 1.94
Odd goals in 2nd half 49.1% 48.5% 2.06
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 goals 97.6% 96.0% 96.5% 1.00× 1.04
Over 1.5 goals 92.1% 92.3% 84.4% 1.09× 1.08
Under 5.5 goals 77.3% 77.0% 91.0% 0.85× 1.30
Over 2.5 goals 77.3% 77.0% 59.7% 1.29× 1.30
Under 4.5 goals 61.4% 62.3% 79.2% 0.79× 1.60
Over 3.5 goals 58.2% 57.5% 37.7% 1.53× 1.74
Under 3.5 goals 41.8% 42.5% 62.3% 0.68× 2.35
Over 4.5 goals 38.6% 37.7% 20.8% 1.81× 2.66
Over 5.5 goals 22.7% 23.0% 9.0% 2.54× 4.35
Under 2.5 goals 22.7% 23.0% 40.3% 0.57× 4.35
Under 1.5 goals 7.9% 7.7% 15.6% 0.49× 12.95
Under 0.5 goals 2.4% 4.0% 3.5% 1.12× 25.26
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 90.8% 92.0% 79.3% 1.16× 1.09
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 86.7% 86.6% 95.7% 0.91× 1.15
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 73.0% 71.7% 89.8% 0.80× 1.39
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 71.9% 71.7% 48.3% 1.48× 1.40
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 52.0% 52.8% 75.0% 0.70× 1.90
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 48.0% 47.2% 25.0% 1.89× 2.12
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 28.1% 28.3% 51.7% 0.55× 3.53
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 27.0% 28.3% 10.2% 2.76× 3.54
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 13.3% 13.4% 4.3% 3.07× 7.49
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 9.2% 8.0% 20.7% 0.38× 12.55
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 1st half 81.8% 83.8% 1.19
Under 2.5 in 1st half 75.4% 77.2% 1.30
Over 1.5 in 1st half 51.2% 50.6% 1.98
Under 1.5 in 1st half 48.8% 49.4% 2.02
Over 2.5 in 1st half 24.6% 22.8% 4.38
Under 0.5 in 1st half 18.2% 16.2% 6.17
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 90.4% 89.7% 1.12
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 68.7% 68.4% 1.46
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 57.8% 56.5% 1.77
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 42.2% 43.5% 2.30
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 31.3% 31.6% 3.16
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 9.6% 10.3% 9.72
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SC Cambuur not to score in both halves 75.0% 72.9% 1.37
ADO Den Haag to score in both halves 53.0% 51.9% 1.93
ADO Den Haag not to score in both halves 47.0% 48.1% 2.08
SC Cambuur to score in both halves 25.0% 27.1% 3.69
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 71.4% 68.5% 60.2% 1.14× 1.46
Only ADO Den Haag scores 21.5% 21.3% 23.4% 0.91× 4.71
Only SC Cambuur scores 4.6% 4.0% 13.2% 0.30× 25.09
Neither team scores 2.4% 4.0% 3.5% 1.13× 25.16
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
6 or more goals 22.7% 22.3% 9.0% 2.47× 4.48
Exactly 3 goals 19.2% 17.6% 22.2% 0.79× 5.69
Exactly 4 goals 19.5% 17.6% 17.0% 1.03× 5.69
Exactly 5 goals 16.0% 17.6% 11.9% 1.47× 5.69
Exactly 2 goals 14.8% 12.3% 24.8% 0.50× 8.12
Exactly 1 goals 5.4% 7.8% 12.3% 0.63× 12.89
Exactly 0 goals 2.4% 4.1% 3.5% 1.15× 24.67
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 68.7% 60.3% 1.66
1 goal in 2nd half 21.7% 20.1% 4.97
No goals in 2nd half 9.6% 9.6% 10.37
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SC Cambuur not to win both halves 96.1% 97.4% 1.03
ADO Den Haag not to win both halves 73.9% 74.7% 1.34
ADO Den Haag to win both halves 26.1% 25.3% 3.96
SC Cambuur to win both halves 3.9% 2.6% 38.53
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
ADO Den Haag to win either half 75.8% 80.7% 1.24
SC Cambuur to win neither half 64.5% 64.2% 1.56
SC Cambuur to win either half 35.5% 35.8% 2.79
ADO Den Haag to win neither half 24.2% 19.3% 5.17
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SC Cambuur not to win to nil 95.4% 96.1% 86.8% 1.11× 1.04
ADO Den Haag not to win to nil 78.5% 78.7% 76.6% 1.03× 1.27
ADO Den Haag to win to nil 21.5% 21.3% 23.4% 0.91× 4.70
SC Cambuur to win to nil 4.6% 3.9% 13.2% 0.30× 25.47
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
ADO Den Haag by 3+ 25.1% 27.4% 13.3% 2.05× 3.65
ADO Den Haag by 1 19.7% 17.3% 19.3% 0.90× 5.78
Draw 18.9% 17.3% 25.3% 0.69× 5.78
ADO Den Haag by 2 18.1% 17.3% 12.3% 1.41× 5.78
SC Cambuur by 1 10.3% 11.8% 14.9% 0.80× 8.46
SC Cambuur by 2 5.2% 7.3% 8.9% 0.82× 13.66
SC Cambuur by 3+ 2.8% 3.0% 6.9% 0.43× 33.82
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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