ADO Den Haag v Sparta Rotterdam — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 7 November 2026 · NED-Eredivisie · 2627

Eredivisie results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

ADO Den Haag

17:45 UTC

Sparta Rotterdam

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 24 Oct, 10:57 · 343h before kick-off

ADO Den Haag win

43.1%

model 40.2%

Draw

27.4%

model 26.6%

Sparta Rotterdam win

29.5%

model 33.2%

432730

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (624 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 12.3%
2-1 8.8%
1-2 7.9%
1-0 6.6%
2-2 6.3%

Goals

Over 2.5	58.0%	Under 2.5	42.0%
BTTS yes	61.7%	BTTS no	38.3%
ADO Den Haag 1+	79.5%	ADO Den Haag 2+	47.1%
Sparta Rotterdam 1+	76.0%	Sparta Rotterdam 2+	41.8%

Expected goals 1.59 – 1.43. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

80/100

Data quality

75/100

Model agreement

92%

★ Best pick

Under 4.5 goals

Over/Under · usually 79%

81.1% fair odds 1.23

moderate signal · 1833 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

ADO Den Haag not to win to nil

Win to nil · usually 77%

83.2% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 1180 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

ADO Den Haag carry the stronger rating, 1610 Elo against 1469.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

ADO Den Haag have an estimated 43.1% win probability, against 29.5% for Sparta Rotterdam and 27.4% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.59 for ADO Den Haag and 1.43 for Sparta Rotterdam.

Why ADO Den Haag

ADO Den Haag carry the stronger rating, 1610 Elo against 1469.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 27.4%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.59 to 1.43. Draws run at 26% in this competition.

Why Sparta Rotterdam can win

Nothing in the data singles out Sparta Rotterdam.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for ADO Den Haag, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Sparta Rotterdam, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

ADO Den Haag: 49% possession, 14.2 shots a match, 17.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Sparta Rotterdam: 49% possession, 13.4 shots a match, 15.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. ADO Den Haag's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-24 13:59 · team_stats 2026-10-24 06:04 · availability 2026-10-24 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

ADO Den Haag are the model's most likely outcome at 43.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.3%. Confidence 80/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

333 sports channels, playing now →

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	402733	1.59–1.43	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	332740	1.37–1.54	1-1 13%	55%	60%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sparta Rotterdam to win	40.1%	42.9%	30.1%	1.42×	2.33
ADO Den Haag to win	32.7%	30.4%	44.4%	0.68×	3.29
Draw	27.2%	27.9%	25.6%	1.09×	3.58

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sparta Rotterdam & both teams score	21.4%	21.8%	17.2%	1.27×	4.59
Draw & both teams score	20.4%	21.8%	22.2%	0.98×	4.59
Sparta Rotterdam & not both score	18.7%	18.0%	13.1%	1.37×	5.56
ADO Den Haag & both teams score	17.9%	18.0%	21.2%	0.85×	5.56
ADO Den Haag & not both score	14.8%	13.3%	23.4%	0.57×	7.53
Draw & not both score	6.7%	8.3%	3.5%	2.38×	12.01

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sparta Rotterdam & over 1.5	33.0%	30.8%	26.2%	1.18×	3.25
ADO Den Haag & over 1.5	26.4%	26.1%	36.2%	0.72×	3.84
Sparta Rotterdam & over 2.5	26.5%	26.1%	20.4%	1.28×	3.84
Sparta Rotterdam & under 3.5	25.8%	26.1%	19.9%	1.31×	3.84
ADO Den Haag & over 2.5	21.3%	21.6%	28.9%	0.75×	4.63
ADO Den Haag & under 3.5	21.6%	21.6%	27.5%	0.78×	4.63
Draw & over 1.5	20.4%	21.6%	22.2%	0.97×	4.63
Draw & under 2.5	19.5%	18.0%	15.1%	1.19×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	19.5%	18.0%	15.1%	1.19×	5.56
Sparta Rotterdam & under 2.5	13.6%	12.8%	9.9%	1.30×	7.79
Sparta Rotterdam & over 3.5	14.4%	12.8%	10.4%	1.24×	7.79
ADO Den Haag & under 2.5	11.4%	12.8%	15.7%	0.82×	7.79
ADO Den Haag & over 3.5	11.1%	12.8%	17.0%	0.75×	7.79
Draw & over 2.5	7.7%	7.9%	10.7%	0.74×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	7.7%	7.9%	10.7%	0.74×	12.63
ADO Den Haag & under 1.5	6.2%	7.9%	8.4%	0.95×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	6.7%	7.9%	3.5%	2.26×	12.63
Sparta Rotterdam & under 1.5	7.2%	7.9%	4.1%	1.93×	12.63

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sparta Rotterdam (1UP)	57.9%	58.1%	—	—	1.72
ADO Den Haag (1UP)	51.5%	52.5%	—	—	1.90

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sparta Rotterdam (2UP)	40.1%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
ADO Den Haag (2UP)	32.7%	30.5%	—	—	3.28

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sparta Rotterdam to win 2nd half	36.6%	36.0%	—	—	2.78
2nd half drawn	34.8%	34.4%	—	—	2.91
ADO Den Haag to win 2nd half	28.7%	25.9%	—	—	3.86

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sparta Rotterdam under 1.5 in 2nd half	76.5%	78.9%	—	—	1.27
Sparta Rotterdam over 0.5 in 2nd half	60.2%	60.1%	—	—	1.67
Sparta Rotterdam under 0.5 in 2nd half	39.8%	39.9%	—	—	2.51
Sparta Rotterdam over 1.5 in 2nd half	23.5%	21.1%	—	—	4.73

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
ADO Den Haag under 1.5 in 2nd half	81.6%	82.4%	—	—	1.21
ADO Den Haag over 0.5 in 2nd half	54.1%	55.2%	—	—	1.81
ADO Den Haag under 0.5 in 2nd half	45.9%	44.8%	—	—	2.23
ADO Den Haag over 1.5 in 2nd half	18.4%	17.6%	—	—	5.69

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sparta Rotterdam (+2.5)	94.6%	92.1%	86.8%	1.06×	1.09
Sparta Rotterdam (+1.5)	84.7%	82.5%	74.7%	1.10×	1.21
Sparta Rotterdam (+0.5)	67.3%	68.7%	55.6%	1.24×	1.46
ADO Den Haag (+0.5)	59.9%	57.1%	69.9%	0.82×	1.75
Sparta Rotterdam (-0.5)	40.1%	42.9%	30.1%	1.43×	2.33
ADO Den Haag (-0.5)	32.7%	31.3%	44.4%	0.71×	3.19
ADO Den Haag (-1.5)	15.3%	17.5%	25.3%	0.69×	5.73
ADO Den Haag (-2.5)	5.4%	7.9%	13.2%	0.59×	12.71

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sparta Rotterdam to concede	74.5%	76.8%	83.6%	0.92×	1.30
Sparta Rotterdam clean sheet	25.5%	23.2%	16.4%	1.41×	4.30

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sparta Rotterdam clean sheet in 1st half	55.5%	56.9%	—	—	1.76
Sparta Rotterdam to concede in 1st half	44.5%	43.1%	—	—	2.32

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sparta Rotterdam to concede in 2nd half	54.1%	55.0%	—	—	1.82
Sparta Rotterdam clean sheet in 2nd half	45.9%	45.0%	—	—	2.22

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sparta Rotterdam under 6.5 corners	90.1%	89.9%	—	—	1.11
Sparta Rotterdam under 5.5 corners	82.3%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Sparta Rotterdam under 4.5 corners	70.5%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Sparta Rotterdam over 2.5 corners	64.5%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Sparta Rotterdam under 3.5 corners	54.4%	53.1%	—	—	1.89
Sparta Rotterdam over 3.5 corners	45.6%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Sparta Rotterdam under 2.5 corners	35.5%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Sparta Rotterdam over 4.5 corners	29.5%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Sparta Rotterdam over 5.5 corners	17.7%	18.6%	—	—	5.38
Sparta Rotterdam over 6.5 corners	9.9%	10.1%	—	—	9.88

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sparta Rotterdam under 3.5 goals	93.0%	92.3%	94.4%	0.98×	1.08
Sparta Rotterdam under 2.5 goals	80.0%	76.3%	84.9%	0.90×	1.31
Sparta Rotterdam over 0.5 goals	78.5%	76.3%	73.2%	1.04×	1.31
Sparta Rotterdam under 1.5 goals	54.6%	53.6%	58.1%	0.92×	1.87
Sparta Rotterdam over 1.5 goals	45.4%	46.5%	41.9%	1.11×	2.15
Sparta Rotterdam under 0.5 goals	21.5%	23.7%	26.8%	0.89×	4.21
Sparta Rotterdam over 2.5 goals	20.0%	23.7%	15.1%	1.57×	4.22
Sparta Rotterdam over 3.5 goals	7.0%	7.7%	5.6%	1.36×	13.06

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sparta Rotterdam under 1.5 in 1st half	87.3%	89.2%	—	—	1.12
Sparta Rotterdam under 0.5 in 1st half	54.1%	55.7%	—	—	1.79
Sparta Rotterdam over 0.5 in 1st half	45.9%	44.3%	—	—	2.26
Sparta Rotterdam over 1.5 in 1st half	12.7%	10.8%	—	—	9.23

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sparta Rotterdam scores more in 2nd half	41.1%	43.7%	—	—	2.29
Sparta Rotterdam scores equally in both	35.6%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
Sparta Rotterdam scores more in 1st half	23.3%	22.1%	—	—	4.52

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
ADO Den Haag (away no bet)	54.6%	51.7%	63.5%	0.82×	1.93
Draw (away no bet)	45.4%	48.3%	36.5%	1.32×	2.07

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sparta Rotterdam even goals	52.3%	52.6%	57.4%	0.92×	1.90
Sparta Rotterdam odd goals	47.7%	47.4%	42.6%	1.11×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	82.8%	82.9%	—	—	1.21
Both halves over 1.5 goals	17.2%	17.1%	—	—	5.86

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	68.0%	68.5%	—	—	1.46
Both halves under 1.5 goals	32.0%	31.5%	—	—	3.17

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	58.7%	55.3%	—	—	1.81
Sparta Rotterdam to score 2+ in a row	36.1%	36.6%	—	—	2.74
ADO Den Haag to score 2+ in a row	30.2%	29.1%	—	—	3.44
Either team to score 3+ in a row	21.3%	19.6%	—	—	5.10
Sparta Rotterdam to score 3+ in a row	12.5%	12.0%	—	—	8.30
ADO Den Haag to score 3+ in a row	9.2%	5.6%	—	—	17.82

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
ADO Den Haag corners (+3.5)	97.3%	95.7%	—	—	1.05
ADO Den Haag corners (+2.5)	95.2%	95.7%	—	—	1.05
ADO Den Haag corners (+1.5)	91.9%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
ADO Den Haag corners (-1.5)	72.9%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
ADO Den Haag corners (-2.5)	63.9%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
ADO Den Haag corners (-3.5)	54.3%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Sparta Rotterdam corners (+3.5)	45.7%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Sparta Rotterdam corners (+2.5)	36.1%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Sparta Rotterdam corners (+1.5)	27.1%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Sparta Rotterdam corners (-1.5)	8.1%	10.4%	—	—	9.59
Sparta Rotterdam corners (-2.5)	4.8%	4.3%	—	—	23.40
Sparta Rotterdam corners (-3.5)	2.7%	4.3%	—	—	23.47

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
12+ corners	44.6%	38.4%	—	—	2.61
9-11 corners	27.9%	31.2%	—	—	3.21
0-8 corners	27.5%	31.2%	—	—	3.21

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 7.5 corners	80.7%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Over 8.5 corners	72.5%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 12.5 corners	64.1%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Over 9.5 corners	63.4%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Under 11.5 corners	55.4%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 10.5 corners	53.9%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 10.5 corners	46.1%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 11.5 corners	44.6%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Under 9.5 corners	36.6%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 12.5 corners	35.9%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Under 8.5 corners	27.5%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Under 7.5 corners	19.3%	19.3%	—	—	5.18

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	12.8%	11.5%	11.7%	0.98×	8.72
1-2	8.8%	7.4%	8.1%	0.92×	13.51
0-0	6.7%	7.4%	3.5%	2.11×	13.51
0-1	7.2%	7.4%	4.1%	1.80×	13.51
0-2	6.5%	7.4%	5.9%	1.25×	13.51
2-1	7.9%	7.4%	7.9%	0.94×	13.51
1-0	6.2%	7.4%	8.4%	0.88×	13.51
2-0	5.1%	7.4%	7.5%	0.99×	13.51
2-2	6.1%	7.4%	8.7%	0.85×	13.51
0-3	3.3%	1.7%	2.3%	0.75×	58.30
0-4	1.3%	1.7%	0.9%	1.88×	58.31
1-3	4.5%	1.7%	2.6%	0.66×	58.29
1-4	1.7%	1.7%	2.1%	0.80×	58.31
2-3	3.1%	1.7%	2.4%	0.70×	58.30
2-4	1.2%	1.7%	0.5%	3.76×	58.31
3-0	2.3%	1.7%	4.3%	0.40×	58.31
3-1	3.6%	1.7%	3.7%	0.47×	58.30
3-2	2.8%	1.7%	2.9%	0.59×	58.30
3-3	1.4%	1.7%	2.1%	0.80×	58.31
3-4	0.5%	1.7%	0.6%	2.82×	58.32
4-0	0.8%	1.7%	1.8%	0.94×	58.31
4-1	1.2%	1.7%	3.2%	0.54×	58.31
4-2	0.9%	1.7%	1.2%	1.41×	58.31
4-3	0.5%	1.7%	0.6%	2.82×	58.32
4-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.2%	11.27×	58.32
Any other score	3.3%	1.7%	6.5%	0.26×	58.30

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sparta Rotterdam (2nd half DNB)	56.1%	59.6%	—	—	1.68
ADO Den Haag (2nd half DNB)	43.9%	40.4%	—	—	2.48

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sparta Rotterdam leading at HT (DNB)	51.4%	55.8%	—	—	1.79
ADO Den Haag leading at HT (DNB)	48.6%	44.2%	—	—	2.26

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
ADO Den Haag or Sparta Rotterdam (12)	72.8%	72.1%	74.4%	0.97×	1.39
Sparta Rotterdam or draw (X2)	67.3%	69.6%	55.6%	1.25×	1.44
ADO Den Haag or draw (1X)	59.9%	57.1%	69.9%	0.82×	1.75

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sparta Rotterdam or draw at HT	72.0%	74.9%	—	—	1.34
ADO Den Haag or draw at HT	70.3%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
ADO Den Haag or Sparta Rotterdam at HT	57.6%	57.1%	—	—	1.75

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sparta Rotterdam or draw (1UP)	67.3%	76.2%	—	—	1.31
ADO Den Haag or draw (1UP)	59.9%	63.2%	—	—	1.58

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sparta Rotterdam or draw in 2nd half	71.3%	74.1%	—	—	1.35
ADO Den Haag or Sparta Rotterdam in 2nd half	65.2%	65.6%	—	—	1.52
ADO Den Haag or draw in 2nd half	63.4%	64.0%	—	—	1.56

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	61.0%	61.4%	—	—	1.63
Neither half drawn	39.0%	38.6%	—	—	2.59

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sparta Rotterdam (DNB)	55.1%	58.0%	40.4%	1.44×	1.72
ADO Den Haag (DNB)	44.9%	42.0%	59.6%	0.70×	2.38

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sparta Rotterdam to score first	49.3%	46.1%	—	—	2.17
ADO Den Haag to score first	43.9%	41.8%	—	—	2.40
No goal scored	6.7%	7.4%	—	—	13.45

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	59.8%	55.0%	60.3%	0.91×	1.82
Not both teams to score	40.2%	45.0%	39.7%	1.13×	2.22

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	47.0%	44.3%	48.7%	0.91×	2.26
Not both score & under 2.5	31.7%	34.5%	28.8%	1.20×	2.90
Both score & under 2.5	12.8%	12.4%	11.7%	1.06×	8.09
Not both score & over 2.5	8.5%	8.3%	11.1%	0.75×	12.06

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	82.0%	82.6%	80.4%	1.03×	1.21
Both teams to score 2+	18.0%	17.4%	19.6%	0.89×	5.74

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	67.0%	67.4%	—	—	1.48
Both teams to score in 2nd half	33.0%	32.6%	—	—	3.07

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	53.0%	54.8%	—	—	1.83
Both score 2nd half only	26.4%	27.1%	—	—	3.69
Both score 1st half only	14.0%	10.8%	—	—	9.29
Both score in both halves	6.7%	6.8%	—	—	14.73

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	79.4%	81.1%	—	—	1.23
Both teams to score by HT	20.6%	18.9%	—	—	5.29

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	57.8%	57.3%	—	—	1.75
A half without a goal	42.2%	42.7%	—	—	2.34

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	46.8%	47.2%	46.7%	1.01×	2.12
4-6 goals	30.2%	30.7%	33.8%	0.91×	3.26
0-1 goals	20.1%	22.9%	15.7%	1.46×	4.37
7+ goals	2.9%	1.8%	4.1%	0.45×	54.21

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sparta Rotterdam to score exactly 1	33.1%	33.8%	31.5%	1.07×	2.96
Sparta Rotterdam to score exactly 2	25.4%	27.4%	26.9%	1.02×	3.66
Sparta Rotterdam to score exactly 0	21.5%	22.3%	26.8%	0.83×	4.49
Sparta Rotterdam to score 3+	20.0%	22.3%	15.1%	1.48×	4.49

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
ADO Den Haag to score exactly 1	34.8%	32.6%	33.2%	0.98×	3.07
ADO Den Haag to score exactly 0	25.5%	26.5%	16.4%	1.61×	3.77
ADO Den Haag to score exactly 2	23.8%	23.3%	26.9%	0.87×	4.29
ADO Den Haag to score 3+	15.9%	18.8%	23.7%	0.79×	5.33

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	42.4%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Sparta Rotterdam leading at HT	29.7%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
ADO Den Haag leading at HT	28.0%	25.1%	—	—	3.98

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sparta Rotterdam -1: 1	59.9%	56.8%	—	—	1.76
Sparta Rotterdam -1: 2	20.4%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Sparta Rotterdam -1: X	19.7%	17.5%	—	—	5.70

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sparta Rotterdam (0:1)	67.3%	65.2%	55.6%	1.17×	1.53
Draw (0:1)	17.4%	17.8%	19.3%	0.92×	5.61
ADO Den Haag (0:1)	15.3%	17.8%	25.3%	0.70×	5.62

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sparta Rotterdam (0:2)	84.7%	83.0%	74.7%	1.11×	1.21
Draw (0:2)	9.8%	7.7%	12.2%	0.63×	13.02
ADO Den Haag (0:2)	5.4%	7.7%	13.2%	0.58×	13.06

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sparta Rotterdam (0:3)	94.6%	92.7%	86.8%	1.07×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	3.9%	2.4%	7.8%	0.31×	42.04
ADO Den Haag (0:3)	1.6%	2.4%	5.6%	0.42×	42.14

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sparta Rotterdam (0:4)	98.4%	98.1%	94.4%	1.04×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.2%	1.2%	2.6%	0.47×	81.97
ADO Den Haag (0:4)	0.4%	1.2%	3.2%	0.38×	82.06

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
ADO Den Haag (1:0)	59.9%	58.4%	69.9%	0.84×	1.71
Sparta Rotterdam (1:0)	20.4%	21.7%	15.5%	1.40×	4.61
Draw (1:0)	19.7%	17.1%	14.8%	1.16×	5.84

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
ADO Den Haag (2:0)	79.6%	80.5%	84.5%	0.95×	1.24
Draw (2:0)	12.4%	10.3%	8.8%	1.17×	9.72
Sparta Rotterdam (2:0)	8.1%	6.4%	6.8%	0.93×	15.68

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	48.0%	48.7%	—	—	2.05
1st half highest scoring	26.2%	26.2%	—	—	3.82
Halves equal	25.8%	26.2%	—	—	3.82

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
ADO Den Haag to concede	78.5%	76.1%	73.2%	1.04×	1.31
ADO Den Haag clean sheet	21.5%	23.9%	26.8%	0.89×	4.18

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
ADO Den Haag clean sheet in 1st half	54.1%	55.7%	—	—	1.79
ADO Den Haag to concede in 1st half	45.9%	44.3%	—	—	2.26

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
ADO Den Haag to concede in 2nd half	60.2%	59.7%	—	—	1.68
ADO Den Haag clean sheet in 2nd half	39.8%	40.3%	—	—	2.48

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
ADO Den Haag over 2.5 corners	94.8%	89.3%	—	—	1.12
ADO Den Haag over 3.5 corners	88.9%	86.2%	—	—	1.16
ADO Den Haag over 4.5 corners	80.5%	80.9%	—	—	1.24
ADO Den Haag over 5.5 corners	70.3%	71.8%	—	—	1.39
ADO Den Haag over 6.5 corners	59.1%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
ADO Den Haag under 6.5 corners	40.9%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
ADO Den Haag under 5.5 corners	29.7%	28.2%	—	—	3.55
ADO Den Haag under 4.5 corners	19.5%	19.1%	—	—	5.25
ADO Den Haag under 3.5 corners	11.1%	13.8%	—	—	7.27
ADO Den Haag under 2.5 corners	5.2%	10.7%	—	—	9.31

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
ADO Den Haag under 3.5 goals	95.0%	92.3%	89.2%	1.03×	1.08
ADO Den Haag under 2.5 goals	84.1%	82.2%	76.3%	1.08×	1.22
ADO Den Haag over 0.5 goals	74.5%	74.3%	83.6%	0.89×	1.35
ADO Den Haag under 1.5 goals	60.3%	63.6%	49.5%	1.29×	1.57
ADO Den Haag over 1.5 goals	39.7%	36.4%	50.5%	0.72×	2.75
ADO Den Haag under 0.5 goals	25.5%	25.7%	16.4%	1.57×	3.89
ADO Den Haag over 2.5 goals	15.9%	17.8%	23.7%	0.75×	5.62
ADO Den Haag over 3.5 goals	5.0%	7.7%	10.8%	0.72×	12.91

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
ADO Den Haag under 1.5 in 1st half	88.2%	90.3%	—	—	1.11
ADO Den Haag under 0.5 in 1st half	55.5%	56.7%	—	—	1.76
ADO Den Haag over 0.5 in 1st half	44.5%	43.3%	—	—	2.31
ADO Den Haag over 1.5 in 1st half	11.8%	9.7%	—	—	10.29

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
ADO Den Haag scores equally in both	38.6%	37.8%	—	—	2.65
ADO Den Haag scores more in 2nd half	36.5%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
ADO Den Haag scores more in 1st half	24.9%	21.3%	—	—	4.69

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sparta Rotterdam (home no bet)	59.6%	56.5%	54.1%	1.04×	1.77
Draw (home no bet)	40.4%	43.5%	45.9%	0.95×	2.30

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
ADO Den Haag even goals	53.2%	50.7%	51.0%	0.99×	1.97
ADO Den Haag odd goals	46.8%	49.3%	49.0%	1.01×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	30.3%	33.0%	—	—	3.03
HT 0-1	18.2%	18.6%	—	—	5.37
HT 1-0	17.5%	18.6%	—	—	5.37
HT 1-1	11.1%	11.0%	—	—	9.12
HT 0-2	5.7%	6.9%	—	—	14.50
HT 2-0	5.2%	6.9%	—	—	14.50
Any other HT score	4.6%	2.4%	—	—	42.00
HT 1-2	3.3%	2.4%	—	—	42.08
HT 2-1	3.2%	2.4%	—	—	42.09
HT 2-2	1.0%	2.4%	—	—	42.23

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sparta Rotterdam at HT / Sparta Rotterdam at FT	22.4%	21.6%	—	—	4.62
ADO Den Haag at HT / ADO Den Haag at FT	19.0%	16.8%	—	—	5.97
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	16.1%	16.7%	—	—	5.98
Draw at HT / Sparta Rotterdam at FT	14.8%	12.7%	—	—	7.89
Draw at HT / ADO Den Haag at FT	11.5%	12.6%	—	—	7.91
ADO Den Haag at HT / Draw at FT	5.9%	6.0%	—	—	16.65
Sparta Rotterdam at HT / Draw at FT	5.2%	6.0%	—	—	16.68
ADO Den Haag at HT / Sparta Rotterdam at FT	3.0%	3.5%	—	—	28.68
Sparta Rotterdam at HT / ADO Den Haag at FT	2.1%	3.5%	—	—	28.71

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sparta Rotterdam to score last	49.4%	46.6%	—	—	2.15
ADO Den Haag to score last	43.9%	40.1%	—	—	2.49
No goal scored	6.7%	7.4%	—	—	13.45

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	93.3%	92.7%	—	—	1.08
Sparta Rotterdam to lead by 1 at any time	57.9%	54.9%	—	—	1.82
ADO Den Haag to lead by 1 at any time	51.5%	50.8%	—	—	1.97
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	48.7%	44.6%	—	—	2.24
Sparta Rotterdam to lead by 2 at any time	27.3%	25.5%	—	—	3.92
ADO Den Haag to lead by 2 at any time	21.7%	19.6%	—	—	5.10
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	17.6%	14.9%	—	—	6.69
Sparta Rotterdam to lead by 3 at any time	10.3%	10.4%	—	—	9.60
ADO Den Haag to lead by 3 at any time	7.3%	6.7%	—	—	14.92

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
ADO Den Haag most corners	80.8%	81.2%	—	—	1.23
Sparta Rotterdam most corners	12.9%	10.4%	—	—	9.58
Corners level	6.4%	8.3%	—	—	11.99

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	85.8%	87.4%	87.5%	1.00×	1.14
2-6 goals	77.0%	78.7%	80.4%	0.98×	1.27
1-4 goals	76.4%	78.7%	75.8%	1.04×	1.27
2-5 goals	72.4%	72.4%	75.3%	0.96×	1.38
2-4 goals	63.0%	63.3%	63.6%	1.00×	1.58
1-3 goals	60.1%	63.3%	58.9%	1.08×	1.58
3-6 goals	52.6%	53.2%	55.7%	0.95×	1.88
3-5 goals	48.0%	48.5%	50.7%	0.96×	2.06
2-3 goals	46.8%	48.5%	46.7%	1.04×	2.06
3-4 goals	38.6%	39.2%	39.0%	1.01×	2.55
1-2 goals	37.8%	39.2%	37.0%	1.06×	2.55
4-6 goals	30.2%	35.2%	33.8%	1.04×	2.84
4-5 goals	25.7%	30.2%	28.8%	1.05×	3.31
5-6 goals	14.0%	14.8%	16.9%	0.88×	6.75
7+ goals	2.9%	2.6%	4.1%	0.62×	39.09

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sparta Rotterdam never behind	41.7%	48.5%	—	—	2.06
ADO Den Haag never behind	35.3%	43.9%	—	—	2.28

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	47.3%	50.9%	48.9%	1.04×	1.96
Even number of goals	52.7%	49.1%	51.1%	0.96×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	54.9%	51.6%	—	—	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	45.1%	48.4%	—	—	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	52.5%	51.9%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	47.5%	48.1%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	93.3%	92.3%	96.5%	0.96×	1.08
Under 5.5 goals	92.6%	92.3%	90.9%	1.02×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	83.1%	82.3%	79.1%	1.04×	1.22
Over 1.5 goals	79.9%	77.3%	84.3%	0.92×	1.29
Under 3.5 goals	66.9%	66.3%	62.3%	1.07×	1.51
Over 2.5 goals	55.5%	58.6%	59.7%	0.98×	1.71
Under 2.5 goals	44.5%	41.4%	40.3%	1.03×	2.42
Over 3.5 goals	33.1%	33.7%	37.7%	0.89×	2.97
Under 1.5 goals	20.1%	22.7%	15.7%	1.45×	4.41
Over 4.5 goals	16.9%	17.7%	20.9%	0.85×	5.65
Over 5.5 goals	7.4%	7.7%	9.1%	0.85×	12.94
Under 0.5 goals	6.7%	7.7%	3.5%	2.21×	12.94

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	97.0%	97.2%	95.7%	1.02×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	91.8%	92.4%	89.7%	1.03×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	79.8%	75.9%	74.9%	1.01×	1.32
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	73.4%	72.4%	79.2%	0.91×	1.38
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	57.3%	55.8%	51.7%	1.08×	1.79
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	42.7%	44.2%	48.3%	0.91×	2.26
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	26.6%	27.6%	20.8%	1.33×	3.62
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	20.2%	24.1%	25.1%	0.96×	4.15
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	8.2%	7.6%	10.3%	0.74×	13.15
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	3.0%	2.8%	4.3%	0.65×	35.57

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	87.9%	89.2%	—	—	1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half	69.7%	68.6%	—	—	1.46
Under 1.5 in 1st half	66.0%	68.5%	—	—	1.46
Over 1.5 in 1st half	34.1%	31.5%	—	—	3.18
Under 0.5 in 1st half	30.3%	31.4%	—	—	3.19
Over 2.5 in 1st half	12.1%	10.8%	—	—	9.25

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	81.3%	83.2%	—	—	1.20
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	75.7%	79.1%	—	—	1.27
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	51.1%	53.0%	—	—	1.89
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	48.9%	47.0%	—	—	2.13
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	24.3%	20.9%	—	—	4.78
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	18.7%	16.8%	—	—	5.95

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
ADO Den Haag not to score in both halves	75.9%	78.4%	—	—	1.28
Sparta Rotterdam not to score in both halves	72.4%	73.9%	—	—	1.35
Sparta Rotterdam to score in both halves	27.6%	26.1%	—	—	3.83
ADO Den Haag to score in both halves	24.1%	21.6%	—	—	4.64

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	59.8%	58.7%	60.3%	0.97×	1.70
Only Sparta Rotterdam scores	18.7%	16.0%	13.1%	1.22×	6.24
Only ADO Den Haag scores	14.8%	11.0%	23.4%	0.47×	9.05
Neither team scores	6.7%	7.1%	3.5%	2.03×	14.04

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	24.4%	22.6%	24.8%	0.91×	4.43
Exactly 3 goals	22.4%	22.6%	22.1%	1.02×	4.43
Exactly 4 goals	16.2%	17.5%	17.0%	1.02×	5.73
Exactly 1 goals	13.4%	12.1%	12.3%	0.98×	8.25
Exactly 5 goals	9.4%	7.6%	11.9%	0.64×	13.13
6 or more goals	7.4%	7.6%	9.1%	0.83×	13.14
Exactly 0 goals	6.7%	7.6%	3.5%	2.17×	13.14

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	35.7%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
No goals in 1st half	30.3%	35.7%	—	—	2.80
2 goals in 1st half	21.9%	21.5%	—	—	4.66
3+ goals in 1st half	12.1%	10.7%	—	—	9.32

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	51.1%	51.1%	—	—	1.96
1 goal in 2nd half	30.2%	33.8%	—	—	2.96
No goals in 2nd half	18.7%	16.5%	—	—	6.07

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
ADO Den Haag not to win both halves	91.8%	94.1%	—	—	1.06
Sparta Rotterdam not to win both halves	88.9%	88.0%	—	—	1.14
Sparta Rotterdam to win both halves	11.1%	12.0%	—	—	8.34
ADO Den Haag to win both halves	8.2%	5.9%	—	—	16.93

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sparta Rotterdam to win either half	55.2%	59.1%	—	—	1.69
ADO Den Haag to win neither half	51.6%	54.2%	—	—	1.84
ADO Den Haag to win either half	48.4%	45.8%	—	—	2.19
Sparta Rotterdam to win neither half	44.8%	40.9%	—	—	2.44

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
ADO Den Haag not to win to nil	85.2%	88.1%	76.6%	1.15×	1.14
Sparta Rotterdam not to win to nil	81.3%	83.1%	86.9%	0.96×	1.20
Sparta Rotterdam to win to nil	18.7%	16.9%	13.1%	1.29×	5.92
ADO Den Haag to win to nil	14.8%	11.9%	23.4%	0.51×	8.40

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	27.2%	27.9%	25.6%	1.09×	3.59
Sparta Rotterdam by 1	19.7%	17.1%	14.8%	1.16×	5.86
ADO Den Haag by 1	17.4%	17.0%	19.3%	0.88×	5.87
Sparta Rotterdam by 2	12.4%	11.8%	8.8%	1.33×	8.51
ADO Den Haag by 2	9.8%	7.2%	12.2%	0.59×	13.90
Sparta Rotterdam by 3+	8.1%	7.2%	6.8%	1.05×	13.90
ADO Den Haag by 3+	5.4%	7.2%	13.2%	0.54×	13.92