AEK Athens v Aris — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 5 September 2026 · GRE-Super League · 2627
GRE-Super League
results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 1.70–0.66 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| dc-xg | 1.62–0.51 | 1-0 18% | 36% | 34% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Using this section
All markets
Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.
1X2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AEK Athens to win | 60.6% | 63.2% | 41.4% | 1.53× | 1.58 |
| Draw | 27.2% | 27.6% | 25.0% | 1.10× | 3.62 |
| Aris to win | 12.2% | 10.3% | 33.8% | 0.30× | 9.72 |
1X2 & GG/NG 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AEK Athens & not both score | 40.3% | 45.5% | 24.0% | 1.90× | 2.20 |
| AEK Athens & both teams score | 20.2% | 22.6% | 17.6% | 1.28× | 4.43 |
| Draw & both teams score | 15.9% | 17.7% | 16.8% | 1.06× | 5.64 |
| Draw & not both score | 11.3% | 12.1% | 8.4% | 1.45× | 8.24 |
| Aris & not both score | 7.0% | 7.3% | 19.7% | 0.37× | 13.68 |
| Aris & both teams score | 5.3% | 7.3% | 14.3% | 0.51× | 13.72 |
1X2 & Over/Under 18
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AEK Athens & over 1.5 | 46.4% | 46.7% | 32.4% | 1.44× | 2.14 |
| AEK Athens & under 3.5 | 44.5% | 44.0% | 29.7% | 1.48× | 2.27 |
| AEK Athens & over 2.5 | 32.7% | 33.2% | 26.4% | 1.25× | 3.02 |
| AEK Athens & under 2.5 | 27.8% | 25.5% | 15.2% | 1.68× | 3.92 |
| Draw & under 2.5 | 23.8% | 21.5% | 21.3% | 1.01× | 4.65 |
| Draw & under 3.5 | 23.8% | 21.5% | 21.3% | 1.01× | 4.65 |
| AEK Athens & over 3.5 | 16.0% | 17.6% | 11.9% | 1.48× | 5.70 |
| Draw & over 1.5 | 15.9% | 17.6% | 16.8% | 1.04× | 5.70 |
| AEK Athens & under 1.5 | 14.2% | 12.7% | 9.2% | 1.38× | 7.86 |
| Draw & under 1.5 | 11.3% | 12.7% | 8.4% | 1.51× | 7.87 |
| Aris & under 3.5 | 10.4% | 12.7% | 26.8% | 0.47× | 7.87 |
| Aris & over 1.5 | 7.9% | 7.5% | 24.4% | 0.31× | 13.41 |
| Aris & under 2.5 | 6.4% | 7.5% | 15.6% | 0.48× | 13.41 |
| Aris & over 2.5 | 5.8% | 7.5% | 18.4% | 0.40× | 13.42 |
| Aris & under 1.5 | 4.4% | 4.6% | 9.6% | 0.47× | 21.92 |
| Draw & over 2.5 | 3.4% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 1.17× | 21.96 |
| Draw & over 3.5 | 3.4% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 1.17× | 21.96 |
| Aris & over 3.5 | 1.9% | 4.5% | 7.2% | 0.63× | 22.03 |
1X2 1UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AEK Athens (1UP) | 70.9% | 76.4% | — | — | 1.31 |
| Aris (1UP) | 27.0% | 24.3% | — | — | 4.12 |
1X2 2UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AEK Athens (2UP) | 60.6% | 66.8% | — | — | 1.50 |
| Aris (2UP) | 12.2% | 14.0% | — | — | 7.15 |
2nd half 1X2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AEK Athens to win 2nd half | 48.2% | 44.6% | — | — | 2.24 |
| 2nd half drawn | 37.6% | 37.5% | — | — | 2.67 |
| Aris to win 2nd half | 14.1% | 10.9% | — | — | 9.18 |
Asian handicap 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AEK Athens (+0.5) | 87.8% | 89.0% | 66.2% | 1.34× | 1.12 |
| Aris (+2.5) | 84.0% | 82.3% | 89.3% | 0.92× | 1.21 |
| Aris (+1.5) | 64.5% | 64.1% | 78.9% | 0.81× | 1.56 |
| AEK Athens (-0.5) | 60.6% | 64.0% | 41.4% | 1.55× | 1.56 |
| Aris (+0.5) | 39.4% | 36.0% | 58.6% | 0.61× | 2.78 |
| AEK Athens (-1.5) | 35.5% | 35.9% | 21.1% | 1.70× | 2.79 |
| AEK Athens (-2.5) | 16.0% | 17.7% | 10.7% | 1.66× | 5.66 |
| Aris (-0.5) | 12.2% | 11.0% | 33.8% | 0.33× | 9.09 |
Away clean sheet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aris to concede | 81.7% | 84.7% | 72.1% | 1.17× | 1.18 |
| Aris clean sheet | 18.3% | 15.3% | 27.9% | 0.55× | 6.56 |
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aris to concede in 1st half | 51.8% | 54.7% | — | — | 1.83 |
| Aris clean sheet in 1st half | 48.2% | 45.3% | — | — | 2.21 |
Away goals O/U 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aris under 3.5 goals | 99.5% | 97.4% | 96.7% | 1.01× | 1.03 |
| Aris under 2.5 goals | 97.1% | 97.3% | 89.8% | 1.08× | 1.03 |
| Aris under 1.5 goals | 85.8% | 88.9% | 67.4% | 1.32× | 1.13 |
| Aris under 0.5 goals | 51.7% | 51.9% | 32.2% | 1.61× | 1.93 |
| Aris over 0.5 goals | 48.3% | 48.1% | 67.8% | 0.71× | 2.08 |
| Aris over 1.5 goals | 14.2% | 11.1% | 32.6% | 0.34× | 8.99 |
| Aris over 2.5 goals | 2.9% | 2.7% | 10.2% | 0.26× | 37.35 |
| Aris over 3.5 goals | 0.5% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 0.80× | 38.01 |
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aris under 1.5 in 1st half | 97.1% | 96.2% | — | — | 1.04 |
| Aris under 0.5 in 1st half | 76.8% | 79.1% | — | — | 1.27 |
| Aris over 0.5 in 1st half | 23.2% | 20.9% | — | — | 4.78 |
| Aris over 1.5 in 1st half | 2.9% | 3.8% | — | — | 26.62 |
Away no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AEK Athens (away no bet) | 69.0% | 71.8% | 62.3% | 1.15× | 1.39 |
| Draw (away no bet) | 31.0% | 28.2% | 37.7% | 0.75× | 3.55 |
Away Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aris even goals | 63.4% | 64.7% | 56.8% | 1.14× | 1.55 |
| Aris odd goals | 36.6% | 35.3% | 43.2% | 0.82× | 2.83 |
Both halves O1.5 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both halves over 1.5 | 89.6% | 86.5% | — | — | 1.16 |
| Both halves over 1.5 goals | 10.4% | 13.5% | — | — | 7.41 |
Both halves U1.5 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both halves under 1.5 | 56.4% | 55.7% | — | — | 1.79 |
| Both halves under 1.5 goals | 43.6% | 44.3% | — | — | 2.26 |
Consecutive goals 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Either team to score 2+ in a row | 52.2% | 52.9% | — | — | 1.89 |
| AEK Athens to score 2+ in a row | 45.4% | 47.6% | — | — | 2.10 |
| Either team to score 3+ in a row | 20.6% | 21.7% | — | — | 4.60 |
| AEK Athens to score 3+ in a row | 19.2% | 17.9% | — | — | 5.60 |
| Aris to score 2+ in a row | 9.6% | 7.4% | — | — | 13.53 |
| Aris to score 3+ in a row | 1.5% | 3.3% | — | — | 30.03 |
Correct score 26
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 14.2% | 11.6% | 9.2% | 1.26× | 8.62 |
| 2-0 | 13.6% | 11.6% | 6.1% | 1.89× | 8.62 |
| 1-1 | 12.5% | 11.6% | 13.1% | 0.88× | 8.63 |
| 0-0 | 11.3% | 11.6% | 8.4% | 1.38× | 8.64 |
| 2-1 | 9.0% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 0.85× | 13.74 |
| 3-0 | 7.7% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 1.15× | 13.74 |
| 3-1 | 5.1% | 7.3% | 3.5% | 2.09× | 13.76 |
| 0-1 | 4.4% | 1.8% | 9.6% | 0.19× | 55.40 |
| 1-2 | 3.5% | 1.8% | 8.6% | 0.21× | 55.42 |
| 2-2 | 3.0% | 1.8% | 3.7% | 0.49× | 55.43 |
| 4-0 | 3.3% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 0.98× | 55.43 |
| Any other score | 3.0% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 0.73× | 55.43 |
| 0-2 | 2.1% | 1.8% | 6.1% | 0.29× | 55.46 |
| 3-2 | 1.7% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 0.59× | 55.47 |
| 4-1 | 2.2% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.26× | 55.45 |
| 0-3 | 0.5% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 0.59× | 55.50 |
| 0-4 | 0.1% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 2.20× | 55.51 |
| 1-3 | 0.8% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 0.88× | 55.49 |
| 1-4 | 0.1% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.26× | 55.51 |
| 2-3 | 0.7% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 0.80× | 55.49 |
| 2-4 | 0.1% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 2.93× | 55.51 |
| 3-3 | 0.4% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 4.40× | 55.50 |
| 3-4 | 0.1% | 1.8% | 0.2% | 8.79× | 55.51 |
| 4-2 | 0.7% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.26× | 55.49 |
| 4-3 | 0.2% | 1.8% | 0.2% | 8.79× | 55.50 |
| 4-4 | 0.0% | 1.8% | 0.2% | 8.79× | 55.51 |
DNB half time 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AEK Athens leading at HT (DNB) | 78.3% | 80.0% | — | — | 1.25 |
| Aris leading at HT (DNB) | 21.7% | 20.1% | — | — | 4.99 |
Double chance 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AEK Athens or draw (1X) | 87.8% | 89.7% | 66.2% | 1.36× | 1.12 |
| AEK Athens or Aris (12) | 72.8% | 72.4% | 75.0% | 0.97× | 1.38 |
| Aris or draw (X2) | 39.4% | 36.8% | 58.6% | 0.63× | 2.72 |
Double chance 1HT 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AEK Athens or draw at HT | 88.1% | 88.4% | — | — | 1.13 |
| Aris or draw at HT | 57.1% | 58.2% | — | — | 1.72 |
| AEK Athens or Aris at HT | 54.9% | 52.1% | — | — | 1.92 |
Double chance 1UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AEK Athens or draw (1UP) | 87.8% | 92.7% | — | — | 1.08 |
| Aris or draw (1UP) | 39.4% | 45.9% | — | — | 2.18 |
Double chance 2HT 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AEK Athens or draw in 2nd half | 85.9% | 89.1% | — | — | 1.12 |
| AEK Athens or Aris in 2nd half | 62.4% | 62.5% | — | — | 1.60 |
| Aris or draw in 2nd half | 51.8% | 55.4% | — | — | 1.81 |
Draw either half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A half drawn | 63.8% | 59.5% | — | — | 1.68 |
| Neither half drawn | 36.2% | 40.5% | — | — | 2.47 |
Draw no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AEK Athens (DNB) | 83.2% | 81.6% | 55.0% | 1.48× | 1.23 |
| Aris (DNB) | 16.8% | 18.4% | 45.0% | 0.41× | 5.42 |
First goal 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AEK Athens to score first | 63.8% | 66.9% | — | — | 1.50 |
| Aris to score first | 24.8% | 20.3% | — | — | 4.92 |
| No goal scored | 11.3% | 8.7% | — | — | 11.44 |
GG/NG 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both teams to score | 58.7% | 56.8% | 51.6% | 1.10× | 1.76 |
| Both teams to score | 41.3% | 43.2% | 48.4% | 0.89× | 2.31 |
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both score & under 2.5 | 45.6% | 45.2% | 38.7% | 1.17× | 2.21 |
| Both score & over 2.5 | 28.9% | 31.6% | 35.5% | 0.89× | 3.17 |
| Not both score & over 2.5 | 13.1% | 11.7% | 13.1% | 0.89× | 8.52 |
| Both score & under 2.5 | 12.5% | 11.7% | 13.1% | 0.89× | 8.53 |
GG/NG 2+ 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both teams to score 2+ | 92.8% | 89.0% | 88.9% | 1.00× | 1.12 |
| Both teams to score 2+ | 7.2% | 11.1% | 11.1% | 1.00× | 9.05 |
GG/NG 2nd half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both to score in 2nd half | 79.1% | 74.0% | — | — | 1.35 |
| Both teams to score in 2nd half | 20.9% | 26.0% | — | — | 3.84 |
GG/NG by half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neither half both score | 69.2% | 66.8% | — | — | 1.50 |
| Both score 2nd half only | 18.5% | 18.2% | — | — | 5.48 |
| Both score 1st half only | 9.9% | 6.6% | — | — | 15.22 |
| Both score in both halves | 2.4% | 4.8% | — | — | 20.98 |
GG/NG half time 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both to score by HT | 87.7% | 85.6% | — | — | 1.17 |
| Both teams to score by HT | 12.3% | 14.4% | — | — | 6.92 |
Goal in both halves 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A half without a goal | 52.2% | 54.7% | — | — | 1.83 |
| A goal in each half | 47.8% | 45.3% | — | — | 2.21 |
Goal range 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2-3 goals | 48.9% | 46.0% | 50.8% | 0.90× | 2.18 |
| 0-1 goals | 29.9% | 27.8% | 26.8% | 1.03× | 3.60 |
| 4-6 goals | 20.2% | 22.7% | 21.7% | 1.05× | 4.40 |
| 7+ goals | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 1.88× | 51.92 |
Goals away 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aris to score exactly 0 | 51.7% | 50.2% | 32.2% | 1.56× | 1.99 |
| Aris to score exactly 1 | 34.1% | 33.3% | 35.5% | 0.94× | 3.01 |
| Aris to score exactly 2 | 11.3% | 13.4% | 22.5% | 0.59× | 7.49 |
| Aris to score 3+ | 2.9% | 4.0% | 10.2% | 0.39× | 24.87 |
Goals home 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AEK Athens to score exactly 1 | 31.1% | 30.5% | 33.6% | 0.91× | 3.28 |
| AEK Athens to score exactly 2 | 26.4% | 27.1% | 20.7% | 1.31× | 3.70 |
| AEK Athens to score 3+ | 24.2% | 23.0% | 18.2% | 1.26× | 4.35 |
| AEK Athens to score exactly 0 | 18.3% | 18.5% | 27.9% | 0.66× | 5.40 |
Half time 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw at HT | 45.1% | 47.9% | — | — | 2.09 |
| AEK Athens leading at HT | 42.9% | 41.8% | — | — | 2.39 |
| Aris leading at HT | 11.9% | 11.6% | — | — | 8.65 |
Handicap 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AEK Athens -1: 2 | 39.4% | 33.0% | — | — | 3.03 |
| AEK Athens -1: 1 | 35.5% | 32.7% | — | — | 3.06 |
| AEK Athens -1: X | 25.0% | 27.0% | — | — | 3.71 |
Handicap 0:1 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aris (0:1) | 39.4% | 30.8% | 58.6% | 0.53× | 3.25 |
| AEK Athens (0:1) | 35.5% | 30.4% | 21.1% | 1.44× | 3.30 |
| Draw (0:1) | 25.0% | 26.2% | 20.5% | 1.28× | 3.82 |
Handicap 0:2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aris (0:2) | 64.5% | 69.9% | 78.9% | 0.89× | 1.43 |
| Draw (0:2) | 19.5% | 16.4% | 10.7% | 1.54× | 6.10 |
| AEK Athens (0:2) | 16.0% | 16.3% | 10.7% | 1.53× | 6.15 |
Handicap 0:3 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aris (0:3) | 84.0% | 83.6% | 89.3% | 0.94× | 1.20 |
| Draw (0:3) | 10.1% | 12.3% | 8.0% | 1.54× | 8.14 |
| AEK Athens (0:3) | 5.9% | 6.9% | 2.9% | 2.40× | 14.54 |
Handicap 0:4 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aris (0:4) | 94.1% | 94.2% | 97.1% | 0.97× | 1.06 |
| Draw (0:4) | 4.1% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 0.68× | 79.27 |
| AEK Athens (0:4) | 1.8% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.01× | 80.42 |
Handicap 1:0 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AEK Athens (1:0) | 87.8% | 88.4% | 66.2% | 1.34× | 1.13 |
| Draw (1:0) | 8.6% | 8.6% | 20.1% | 0.43× | 11.63 |
| Aris (1:0) | 3.7% | 3.0% | 13.9% | 0.22× | 33.33 |
Handicap 2:0 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AEK Athens (2:0) | 96.4% | 97.3% | 86.1% | 1.13× | 1.03 |
| Draw (2:0) | 2.9% | 2.7% | 8.4% | 0.32× | 37.09 |
| Aris (2:0) | 0.7% | 2.7% | 5.7% | 0.46× | 37.64 |
Highest scoring half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd half highest scoring | 43.7% | 49.4% | — | — | 2.02 |
| 1st half highest scoring | 26.1% | 26.1% | — | — | 3.83 |
| Halves equal | 30.1% | 25.4% | — | — | 3.94 |
Home clean sheet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AEK Athens clean sheet | 51.7% | 53.1% | 32.2% | 1.65× | 1.88 |
| AEK Athens to concede | 48.3% | 46.9% | 67.8% | 0.69× | 2.13 |
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AEK Athens clean sheet in 1st half | 76.8% | 77.8% | — | — | 1.29 |
| AEK Athens to concede in 1st half | 23.2% | 22.2% | — | — | 4.51 |
Home goals O/U 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AEK Athens under 3.5 goals | 90.7% | 92.0% | 94.3% | 0.98× | 1.09 |
| AEK Athens over 0.5 goals | 81.7% | 82.4% | 72.1% | 1.14× | 1.21 |
| AEK Athens under 2.5 goals | 75.8% | 76.7% | 81.8% | 0.94× | 1.30 |
| AEK Athens over 1.5 goals | 50.6% | 52.7% | 38.7% | 1.36× | 1.90 |
| AEK Athens under 1.5 goals | 49.4% | 47.3% | 61.3% | 0.77× | 2.11 |
| AEK Athens over 2.5 goals | 24.2% | 23.3% | 18.2% | 1.28× | 4.29 |
| AEK Athens under 0.5 goals | 18.3% | 17.6% | 27.9% | 0.63× | 5.68 |
| AEK Athens over 3.5 goals | 9.3% | 8.0% | 5.7% | 1.39× | 12.57 |
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AEK Athens under 1.5 in 1st half | 83.4% | 80.5% | — | — | 1.24 |
| AEK Athens over 0.5 in 1st half | 51.8% | 54.7% | — | — | 1.83 |
| AEK Athens under 0.5 in 1st half | 48.2% | 45.3% | — | — | 2.21 |
| AEK Athens over 1.5 in 1st half | 16.6% | 19.5% | — | — | 5.14 |
Home no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw (home no bet) | 69.0% | 68.7% | 42.5% | 1.62× | 1.46 |
| Aris (home no bet) | 31.0% | 31.3% | 57.5% | 0.55× | 3.19 |
Home Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AEK Athens even goals | 51.7% | 50.2% | 52.9% | 0.95× | 1.99 |
| AEK Athens odd goals | 48.3% | 49.8% | 47.1% | 1.06× | 2.01 |
HT correct score 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HT 0-0 | 37.3% | 36.5% | — | — | 2.74 |
| HT 1-0 | 26.7% | 28.1% | — | — | 3.56 |
| HT 2-0 | 9.9% | 7.7% | — | — | 12.97 |
| HT 0-1 | 9.4% | 7.7% | — | — | 12.97 |
| HT 1-1 | 7.5% | 7.7% | — | — | 13.00 |
| Any other HT score | 4.0% | 2.5% | — | — | 39.77 |
| HT 2-1 | 2.6% | 2.5% | — | — | 39.85 |
| HT 0-2 | 1.3% | 2.5% | — | — | 39.93 |
| HT 1-2 | 0.9% | 2.5% | — | — | 39.95 |
| HT 2-2 | 0.3% | 2.5% | — | — | 39.98 |
HT/FT 9
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AEK Athens at HT / AEK Athens at FT | 37.8% | 41.5% | — | — | 2.41 |
| Draw at HT / AEK Athens at FT | 20.7% | 21.4% | — | — | 4.68 |
| Draw at HT / Draw at FT | 19.0% | 16.8% | — | — | 5.96 |
| Aris at HT / Aris at FT | 6.0% | 6.6% | — | — | 15.25 |
| Draw at HT / Aris at FT | 5.5% | 6.6% | — | — | 15.26 |
| AEK Athens at HT / Draw at FT | 4.4% | 3.4% | — | — | 29.33 |
| Aris at HT / Draw at FT | 3.8% | 3.4% | — | — | 29.35 |
| Aris at HT / AEK Athens at FT | 2.1% | 3.4% | — | — | 29.42 |
| AEK Athens at HT / Aris at FT | 0.8% | 3.4% | — | — | 29.48 |
Last goal 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AEK Athens to score last | 64.2% | 60.4% | — | — | 1.66 |
| Aris to score last | 24.4% | 20.7% | — | — | 4.83 |
| No goal scored | 11.3% | 8.7% | — | — | 11.44 |
Lead at any time 9
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Either team to lead by 1 at any time | 88.7% | 91.5% | — | — | 1.09 |
| AEK Athens to lead by 1 at any time | 70.9% | 76.8% | — | — | 1.30 |
| Either team to lead by 2 at any time | 46.2% | 46.1% | — | — | 2.17 |
| AEK Athens to lead by 2 at any time | 40.2% | 42.0% | — | — | 2.38 |
| Aris to lead by 1 at any time | 27.0% | 26.0% | — | — | 3.85 |
| Either team to lead by 3 at any time | 18.9% | 17.7% | — | — | 5.65 |
| AEK Athens to lead by 3 at any time | 17.8% | 17.7% | — | — | 5.66 |
| Aris to lead by 2 at any time | 6.1% | 7.0% | — | — | 14.24 |
| Aris to lead by 3 at any time | 1.0% | 2.6% | — | — | 38.89 |
Multi goal 15
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-5 goals | 85.3% | 87.8% | 88.5% | 0.99× | 1.14 |
| 1-4 goals | 79.6% | 78.9% | 80.1% | 0.98× | 1.27 |
| 2-6 goals | 69.0% | 68.4% | 72.3% | 0.95× | 1.46 |
| 1-3 goals | 67.4% | 68.3% | 69.3% | 0.99× | 1.46 |
| 2-5 goals | 66.8% | 68.3% | 70.1% | 0.97× | 1.46 |
| 2-4 goals | 61.0% | 62.3% | 61.7% | 1.01× | 1.61 |
| 2-3 goals | 48.9% | 48.0% | 50.8% | 0.95× | 2.08 |
| 1-2 goals | 46.7% | 48.0% | 43.4% | 1.11× | 2.08 |
| 3-6 goals | 40.9% | 43.6% | 47.5% | 0.92× | 2.29 |
| 3-5 goals | 38.6% | 38.9% | 45.3% | 0.86× | 2.57 |
| 3-4 goals | 32.9% | 34.1% | 36.9% | 0.93× | 2.93 |
| 4-6 goals | 20.2% | 24.7% | 21.7% | 1.14× | 4.05 |
| 4-5 goals | 17.9% | 18.1% | 19.5% | 0.93× | 5.52 |
| 5-6 goals | 8.0% | 8.8% | 10.9% | 0.81× | 11.34 |
| 7+ goals | 1.1% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 1.96× | 49.88 |
Never down 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AEK Athens never behind | 61.7% | 69.3% | — | — | 1.44 |
| Aris never behind | 17.8% | 20.2% | — | — | 4.95 |
Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odd number of goals | 45.8% | 50.1% | 53.7% | 0.93× | 2.00 |
| Even number of goals | 54.2% | 49.9% | 46.3% | 1.08× | 2.00 |
Odd/Even 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even goals in 1st half | 57.5% | 55.3% | — | — | 1.81 |
| Odd goals in 1st half | 42.5% | 44.7% | — | — | 2.24 |
Odd/Even 2HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even goals in 2nd half | 54.6% | 51.7% | — | — | 1.93 |
| Odd goals in 2nd half | 45.4% | 48.3% | — | — | 2.07 |
Over/Under 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 5.5 goals | 96.7% | 95.6% | 96.7% | 0.99× | 1.05 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 90.9% | 92.9% | 88.3% | 1.05× | 1.08 |
| Over 0.5 goals | 88.7% | 88.8% | 91.6% | 0.97× | 1.13 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 78.8% | 78.3% | 77.5% | 1.01× | 1.28 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.1% | 72.4% | 73.2% | 0.99× | 1.38 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 58.1% | 57.7% | 51.6% | 1.12× | 1.73 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.9% | 42.3% | 48.4% | 0.87× | 2.37 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 29.9% | 27.6% | 26.8% | 1.03× | 3.62 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.2% | 21.7% | 22.5% | 0.96× | 4.60 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 11.3% | 11.2% | 8.4% | 1.34× | 8.92 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 9.1% | 7.1% | 11.7% | 0.61× | 14.14 |
| Over 5.5 goals | 3.3% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 1.33× | 22.93 |
Over/Under (whole line) 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 6 (void on exactly 6) | 98.9% | 97.2% | 99.0% | 0.98× | 1.03 |
| Under 5 (void on exactly 5) | 96.5% | 97.2% | 96.4% | 1.01× | 1.03 |
| Under 4 (void on exactly 4) | 89.7% | 88.2% | 86.9% | 1.01× | 1.13 |
| Under 3 (void on exactly 3) | 73.2% | 72.1% | 69.6% | 1.04× | 1.39 |
| Over 2 (void on exactly 2) | 58.4% | 55.4% | 64.3% | 0.86× | 1.80 |
| Under 2 (void on exactly 2) | 41.6% | 44.6% | 35.7% | 1.25× | 2.24 |
| Over 3 (void on exactly 3) | 26.8% | 27.9% | 30.4% | 0.92× | 3.59 |
| Over 4 (void on exactly 4) | 10.3% | 11.8% | 13.1% | 0.90× | 8.46 |
| Over 5 (void on exactly 5) | 3.5% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 0.78× | 35.91 |
| Over 6 (void on exactly 6) | 1.1% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 2.63× | 36.29 |
Over/Under 1HT 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 in 1st half | 92.1% | 92.2% | — | — | 1.08 |
| Under 1.5 in 1st half | 73.5% | 72.5% | — | — | 1.38 |
| Over 0.5 in 1st half | 62.7% | 63.0% | — | — | 1.59 |
| Under 0.5 in 1st half | 37.3% | 37.0% | — | — | 2.71 |
| Over 1.5 in 1st half | 26.5% | 27.5% | — | — | 3.63 |
| Over 2.5 in 1st half | 7.9% | 7.8% | — | — | 12.85 |
Over/Under 2HT 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 in 2nd half | 84.2% | 82.1% | — | — | 1.22 |
| Over 0.5 in 2nd half | 73.8% | 76.4% | — | — | 1.31 |
| Under 1.5 in 2nd half | 59.8% | 54.3% | — | — | 1.84 |
| Over 1.5 in 2nd half | 40.2% | 45.7% | — | — | 2.19 |
| Under 0.5 in 2nd half | 26.2% | 23.6% | — | — | 4.23 |
| Over 2.5 in 2nd half | 15.8% | 17.9% | — | — | 5.59 |
Score both halves 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aris not to score in both halves | 92.4% | 90.2% | — | — | 1.11 |
| AEK Athens not to score in both halves | 67.9% | 67.0% | — | — | 1.49 |
| AEK Athens to score in both halves | 32.1% | 33.0% | — | — | 3.03 |
| Aris to score in both halves | 7.6% | 9.8% | — | — | 10.25 |
Teams to score 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams score | 41.3% | 45.5% | 48.4% | 0.94× | 2.20 |
| Only AEK Athens scores | 40.3% | 45.4% | 24.0% | 1.89× | 2.20 |
| Neither team scores | 11.3% | 10.8% | 8.4% | 1.28× | 9.28 |
| Only Aris scores | 7.0% | 6.6% | 19.7% | 0.34× | 15.04 |
Total goals 7
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 2 goals | 28.2% | 24.8% | 25.0% | 0.99× | 4.04 |
| Exactly 3 goals | 20.7% | 21.5% | 26.0% | 0.83× | 4.64 |
| Exactly 1 goals | 18.6% | 18.6% | 18.6% | 1.00× | 5.38 |
| Exactly 4 goals | 12.2% | 12.4% | 11.1% | 1.12× | 8.09 |
| Exactly 0 goals | 11.3% | 12.4% | 8.4% | 1.47× | 8.10 |
| Exactly 5 goals | 5.7% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 0.88× | 13.16 |
| 6 or more goals | 3.3% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 1.33× | 22.96 |
Total goals 2nd half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2+ goals in 2nd half | 40.2% | 46.2% | — | — | 2.16 |
| 1 goal in 2nd half | 33.6% | 33.2% | — | — | 3.01 |
| No goals in 2nd half | 26.2% | 28.4% | — | — | 3.53 |
Win both halves 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aris not to win both halves | 98.2% | 96.7% | — | — | 1.03 |
| AEK Athens not to win both halves | 78.9% | 80.2% | — | — | 1.25 |
| AEK Athens to win both halves | 21.1% | 19.8% | — | — | 5.06 |
| Aris to win both halves | 1.8% | 3.3% | — | — | 30.43 |
Win either half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aris to win neither half | 75.7% | 81.8% | — | — | 1.22 |
| AEK Athens to win either half | 70.0% | 72.2% | — | — | 1.39 |
| AEK Athens to win neither half | 30.0% | 27.8% | — | — | 3.59 |
| Aris to win either half | 24.3% | 18.2% | — | — | 5.49 |
Win to nil 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aris not to win to nil | 93.0% | 92.4% | 80.3% | 1.15× | 1.08 |
| AEK Athens not to win to nil | 59.7% | 54.6% | 76.0% | 0.72× | 1.83 |
| AEK Athens to win to nil | 40.3% | 45.4% | 24.0% | 1.89× | 2.20 |
| Aris to win to nil | 7.0% | 7.6% | 19.7% | 0.39× | 13.08 |
Winning margin 7
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 27.2% | 28.0% | 25.0% | 1.12× | 3.57 |
| AEK Athens by 1 | 25.0% | 28.0% | 20.5% | 1.36× | 3.58 |
| AEK Athens by 2 | 19.5% | 17.0% | 10.7% | 1.60× | 5.88 |
| AEK Athens by 3+ | 16.0% | 17.0% | 10.7% | 1.59× | 5.90 |
| Aris by 1 | 8.6% | 7.1% | 20.1% | 0.35× | 14.08 |
| Aris by 2 | 2.9% | 2.8% | 8.4% | 0.34× | 35.36 |
| Aris by 3+ | 0.7% | 2.8% | 5.7% | 0.49× | 35.69 |