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AEK Athens v Aris — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 5 September 2026 · GRE-Super League · 2627

GRE-Super League results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.
AEK Athens win
60.6%
Draw
27.2%
Aris win
12.2%

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.70–0.66 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.62–0.51 1-0 18% 36% 34%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AEK Athens to win 60.6% 63.2% 41.4% 1.53× 1.58
Draw 27.2% 27.6% 25.0% 1.10× 3.62
Aris to win 12.2% 10.3% 33.8% 0.30× 9.72
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AEK Athens & not both score 40.3% 45.5% 24.0% 1.90× 2.20
AEK Athens & both teams score 20.2% 22.6% 17.6% 1.28× 4.43
Draw & both teams score 15.9% 17.7% 16.8% 1.06× 5.64
Draw & not both score 11.3% 12.1% 8.4% 1.45× 8.24
Aris & not both score 7.0% 7.3% 19.7% 0.37× 13.68
Aris & both teams score 5.3% 7.3% 14.3% 0.51× 13.72
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AEK Athens & over 1.5 46.4% 46.7% 32.4% 1.44× 2.14
AEK Athens & under 3.5 44.5% 44.0% 29.7% 1.48× 2.27
AEK Athens & over 2.5 32.7% 33.2% 26.4% 1.25× 3.02
AEK Athens & under 2.5 27.8% 25.5% 15.2% 1.68× 3.92
Draw & under 2.5 23.8% 21.5% 21.3% 1.01× 4.65
Draw & under 3.5 23.8% 21.5% 21.3% 1.01× 4.65
AEK Athens & over 3.5 16.0% 17.6% 11.9% 1.48× 5.70
Draw & over 1.5 15.9% 17.6% 16.8% 1.04× 5.70
AEK Athens & under 1.5 14.2% 12.7% 9.2% 1.38× 7.86
Draw & under 1.5 11.3% 12.7% 8.4% 1.51× 7.87
Aris & under 3.5 10.4% 12.7% 26.8% 0.47× 7.87
Aris & over 1.5 7.9% 7.5% 24.4% 0.31× 13.41
Aris & under 2.5 6.4% 7.5% 15.6% 0.48× 13.41
Aris & over 2.5 5.8% 7.5% 18.4% 0.40× 13.42
Aris & under 1.5 4.4% 4.6% 9.6% 0.47× 21.92
Draw & over 2.5 3.4% 4.6% 3.9% 1.17× 21.96
Draw & over 3.5 3.4% 4.6% 3.9% 1.17× 21.96
Aris & over 3.5 1.9% 4.5% 7.2% 0.63× 22.03
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AEK Athens (1UP) 70.9% 76.4% 1.31
Aris (1UP) 27.0% 24.3% 4.12
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AEK Athens (2UP) 60.6% 66.8% 1.50
Aris (2UP) 12.2% 14.0% 7.15
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AEK Athens to win 2nd half 48.2% 44.6% 2.24
2nd half drawn 37.6% 37.5% 2.67
Aris to win 2nd half 14.1% 10.9% 9.18
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AEK Athens (+0.5) 87.8% 89.0% 66.2% 1.34× 1.12
Aris (+2.5) 84.0% 82.3% 89.3% 0.92× 1.21
Aris (+1.5) 64.5% 64.1% 78.9% 0.81× 1.56
AEK Athens (-0.5) 60.6% 64.0% 41.4% 1.55× 1.56
Aris (+0.5) 39.4% 36.0% 58.6% 0.61× 2.78
AEK Athens (-1.5) 35.5% 35.9% 21.1% 1.70× 2.79
AEK Athens (-2.5) 16.0% 17.7% 10.7% 1.66× 5.66
Aris (-0.5) 12.2% 11.0% 33.8% 0.33× 9.09
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aris to concede 81.7% 84.7% 72.1% 1.17× 1.18
Aris clean sheet 18.3% 15.3% 27.9% 0.55× 6.56
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aris to concede in 1st half 51.8% 54.7% 1.83
Aris clean sheet in 1st half 48.2% 45.3% 2.21
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aris under 3.5 goals 99.5% 97.4% 96.7% 1.01× 1.03
Aris under 2.5 goals 97.1% 97.3% 89.8% 1.08× 1.03
Aris under 1.5 goals 85.8% 88.9% 67.4% 1.32× 1.13
Aris under 0.5 goals 51.7% 51.9% 32.2% 1.61× 1.93
Aris over 0.5 goals 48.3% 48.1% 67.8% 0.71× 2.08
Aris over 1.5 goals 14.2% 11.1% 32.6% 0.34× 8.99
Aris over 2.5 goals 2.9% 2.7% 10.2% 0.26× 37.35
Aris over 3.5 goals 0.5% 2.6% 3.3% 0.80× 38.01
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aris under 1.5 in 1st half 97.1% 96.2% 1.04
Aris under 0.5 in 1st half 76.8% 79.1% 1.27
Aris over 0.5 in 1st half 23.2% 20.9% 4.78
Aris over 1.5 in 1st half 2.9% 3.8% 26.62
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AEK Athens (away no bet) 69.0% 71.8% 62.3% 1.15× 1.39
Draw (away no bet) 31.0% 28.2% 37.7% 0.75× 3.55
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aris even goals 63.4% 64.7% 56.8% 1.14× 1.55
Aris odd goals 36.6% 35.3% 43.2% 0.82× 2.83
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 89.6% 86.5% 1.16
Both halves over 1.5 goals 10.4% 13.5% 7.41
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 56.4% 55.7% 1.79
Both halves under 1.5 goals 43.6% 44.3% 2.26
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 52.2% 52.9% 1.89
AEK Athens to score 2+ in a row 45.4% 47.6% 2.10
Either team to score 3+ in a row 20.6% 21.7% 4.60
AEK Athens to score 3+ in a row 19.2% 17.9% 5.60
Aris to score 2+ in a row 9.6% 7.4% 13.53
Aris to score 3+ in a row 1.5% 3.3% 30.03
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-0 14.2% 11.6% 9.2% 1.26× 8.62
2-0 13.6% 11.6% 6.1% 1.89× 8.62
1-1 12.5% 11.6% 13.1% 0.88× 8.63
0-0 11.3% 11.6% 8.4% 1.38× 8.64
2-1 9.0% 7.3% 8.6% 0.85× 13.74
3-0 7.7% 7.3% 6.4% 1.15× 13.74
3-1 5.1% 7.3% 3.5% 2.09× 13.76
0-1 4.4% 1.8% 9.6% 0.19× 55.40
1-2 3.5% 1.8% 8.6% 0.21× 55.42
2-2 3.0% 1.8% 3.7% 0.49× 55.43
4-0 3.3% 1.8% 1.8% 0.98× 55.43
Any other score 3.0% 1.8% 2.5% 0.73× 55.43
0-2 2.1% 1.8% 6.1% 0.29× 55.46
3-2 1.7% 1.8% 3.1% 0.59× 55.47
4-1 2.2% 1.8% 1.4% 1.26× 55.45
0-3 0.5% 1.8% 3.1% 0.59× 55.50
0-4 0.1% 1.8% 0.8% 2.20× 55.51
1-3 0.8% 1.8% 2.0% 0.88× 55.49
1-4 0.1% 1.8% 1.4% 1.26× 55.51
2-3 0.7% 1.8% 2.3% 0.80× 55.49
2-4 0.1% 1.8% 0.6% 2.93× 55.51
3-3 0.4% 1.8% 0.4% 4.40× 55.50
3-4 0.1% 1.8% 0.2% 8.79× 55.51
4-2 0.7% 1.8% 1.4% 1.26× 55.49
4-3 0.2% 1.8% 0.2% 8.79× 55.50
4-4 0.0% 1.8% 0.2% 8.79× 55.51
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AEK Athens leading at HT (DNB) 78.3% 80.0% 1.25
Aris leading at HT (DNB) 21.7% 20.1% 4.99
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AEK Athens or draw (1X) 87.8% 89.7% 66.2% 1.36× 1.12
AEK Athens or Aris (12) 72.8% 72.4% 75.0% 0.97× 1.38
Aris or draw (X2) 39.4% 36.8% 58.6% 0.63× 2.72
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AEK Athens or draw at HT 88.1% 88.4% 1.13
Aris or draw at HT 57.1% 58.2% 1.72
AEK Athens or Aris at HT 54.9% 52.1% 1.92
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AEK Athens or draw (1UP) 87.8% 92.7% 1.08
Aris or draw (1UP) 39.4% 45.9% 2.18
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AEK Athens or draw in 2nd half 85.9% 89.1% 1.12
AEK Athens or Aris in 2nd half 62.4% 62.5% 1.60
Aris or draw in 2nd half 51.8% 55.4% 1.81
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 63.8% 59.5% 1.68
Neither half drawn 36.2% 40.5% 2.47
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AEK Athens (DNB) 83.2% 81.6% 55.0% 1.48× 1.23
Aris (DNB) 16.8% 18.4% 45.0% 0.41× 5.42
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AEK Athens to score first 63.8% 66.9% 1.50
Aris to score first 24.8% 20.3% 4.92
No goal scored 11.3% 8.7% 11.44
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 58.7% 56.8% 51.6% 1.10× 1.76
Both teams to score 41.3% 43.2% 48.4% 0.89× 2.31
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both score & under 2.5 45.6% 45.2% 38.7% 1.17× 2.21
Both score & over 2.5 28.9% 31.6% 35.5% 0.89× 3.17
Not both score & over 2.5 13.1% 11.7% 13.1% 0.89× 8.52
Both score & under 2.5 12.5% 11.7% 13.1% 0.89× 8.53
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 92.8% 89.0% 88.9% 1.00× 1.12
Both teams to score 2+ 7.2% 11.1% 11.1% 1.00× 9.05
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 79.1% 74.0% 1.35
Both teams to score in 2nd half 20.9% 26.0% 3.84
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 69.2% 66.8% 1.50
Both score 2nd half only 18.5% 18.2% 5.48
Both score 1st half only 9.9% 6.6% 15.22
Both score in both halves 2.4% 4.8% 20.98
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 87.7% 85.6% 1.17
Both teams to score by HT 12.3% 14.4% 6.92
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half without a goal 52.2% 54.7% 1.83
A goal in each half 47.8% 45.3% 2.21
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 48.9% 46.0% 50.8% 0.90× 2.18
0-1 goals 29.9% 27.8% 26.8% 1.03× 3.60
4-6 goals 20.2% 22.7% 21.7% 1.05× 4.40
7+ goals 1.1% 1.9% 1.0% 1.88× 51.92
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aris to score exactly 0 51.7% 50.2% 32.2% 1.56× 1.99
Aris to score exactly 1 34.1% 33.3% 35.5% 0.94× 3.01
Aris to score exactly 2 11.3% 13.4% 22.5% 0.59× 7.49
Aris to score 3+ 2.9% 4.0% 10.2% 0.39× 24.87
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AEK Athens to score exactly 1 31.1% 30.5% 33.6% 0.91× 3.28
AEK Athens to score exactly 2 26.4% 27.1% 20.7% 1.31× 3.70
AEK Athens to score 3+ 24.2% 23.0% 18.2% 1.26× 4.35
AEK Athens to score exactly 0 18.3% 18.5% 27.9% 0.66× 5.40
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 45.1% 47.9% 2.09
AEK Athens leading at HT 42.9% 41.8% 2.39
Aris leading at HT 11.9% 11.6% 8.65
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AEK Athens -1: 2 39.4% 33.0% 3.03
AEK Athens -1: 1 35.5% 32.7% 3.06
AEK Athens -1: X 25.0% 27.0% 3.71
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aris (0:1) 39.4% 30.8% 58.6% 0.53× 3.25
AEK Athens (0:1) 35.5% 30.4% 21.1% 1.44× 3.30
Draw (0:1) 25.0% 26.2% 20.5% 1.28× 3.82
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aris (0:2) 64.5% 69.9% 78.9% 0.89× 1.43
Draw (0:2) 19.5% 16.4% 10.7% 1.54× 6.10
AEK Athens (0:2) 16.0% 16.3% 10.7% 1.53× 6.15
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aris (0:3) 84.0% 83.6% 89.3% 0.94× 1.20
Draw (0:3) 10.1% 12.3% 8.0% 1.54× 8.14
AEK Athens (0:3) 5.9% 6.9% 2.9% 2.40× 14.54
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aris (0:4) 94.1% 94.2% 97.1% 0.97× 1.06
Draw (0:4) 4.1% 1.3% 1.8% 0.68× 79.27
AEK Athens (0:4) 1.8% 1.2% 1.2% 1.01× 80.42
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AEK Athens (1:0) 87.8% 88.4% 66.2% 1.34× 1.13
Draw (1:0) 8.6% 8.6% 20.1% 0.43× 11.63
Aris (1:0) 3.7% 3.0% 13.9% 0.22× 33.33
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AEK Athens (2:0) 96.4% 97.3% 86.1% 1.13× 1.03
Draw (2:0) 2.9% 2.7% 8.4% 0.32× 37.09
Aris (2:0) 0.7% 2.7% 5.7% 0.46× 37.64
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 43.7% 49.4% 2.02
1st half highest scoring 26.1% 26.1% 3.83
Halves equal 30.1% 25.4% 3.94
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AEK Athens clean sheet 51.7% 53.1% 32.2% 1.65× 1.88
AEK Athens to concede 48.3% 46.9% 67.8% 0.69× 2.13
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AEK Athens clean sheet in 1st half 76.8% 77.8% 1.29
AEK Athens to concede in 1st half 23.2% 22.2% 4.51
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AEK Athens under 3.5 goals 90.7% 92.0% 94.3% 0.98× 1.09
AEK Athens over 0.5 goals 81.7% 82.4% 72.1% 1.14× 1.21
AEK Athens under 2.5 goals 75.8% 76.7% 81.8% 0.94× 1.30
AEK Athens over 1.5 goals 50.6% 52.7% 38.7% 1.36× 1.90
AEK Athens under 1.5 goals 49.4% 47.3% 61.3% 0.77× 2.11
AEK Athens over 2.5 goals 24.2% 23.3% 18.2% 1.28× 4.29
AEK Athens under 0.5 goals 18.3% 17.6% 27.9% 0.63× 5.68
AEK Athens over 3.5 goals 9.3% 8.0% 5.7% 1.39× 12.57
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AEK Athens under 1.5 in 1st half 83.4% 80.5% 1.24
AEK Athens over 0.5 in 1st half 51.8% 54.7% 1.83
AEK Athens under 0.5 in 1st half 48.2% 45.3% 2.21
AEK Athens over 1.5 in 1st half 16.6% 19.5% 5.14
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw (home no bet) 69.0% 68.7% 42.5% 1.62× 1.46
Aris (home no bet) 31.0% 31.3% 57.5% 0.55× 3.19
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AEK Athens even goals 51.7% 50.2% 52.9% 0.95× 1.99
AEK Athens odd goals 48.3% 49.8% 47.1% 1.06× 2.01
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 37.3% 36.5% 2.74
HT 1-0 26.7% 28.1% 3.56
HT 2-0 9.9% 7.7% 12.97
HT 0-1 9.4% 7.7% 12.97
HT 1-1 7.5% 7.7% 13.00
Any other HT score 4.0% 2.5% 39.77
HT 2-1 2.6% 2.5% 39.85
HT 0-2 1.3% 2.5% 39.93
HT 1-2 0.9% 2.5% 39.95
HT 2-2 0.3% 2.5% 39.98
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AEK Athens at HT / AEK Athens at FT 37.8% 41.5% 2.41
Draw at HT / AEK Athens at FT 20.7% 21.4% 4.68
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 19.0% 16.8% 5.96
Aris at HT / Aris at FT 6.0% 6.6% 15.25
Draw at HT / Aris at FT 5.5% 6.6% 15.26
AEK Athens at HT / Draw at FT 4.4% 3.4% 29.33
Aris at HT / Draw at FT 3.8% 3.4% 29.35
Aris at HT / AEK Athens at FT 2.1% 3.4% 29.42
AEK Athens at HT / Aris at FT 0.8% 3.4% 29.48
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AEK Athens to score last 64.2% 60.4% 1.66
Aris to score last 24.4% 20.7% 4.83
No goal scored 11.3% 8.7% 11.44
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 88.7% 91.5% 1.09
AEK Athens to lead by 1 at any time 70.9% 76.8% 1.30
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 46.2% 46.1% 2.17
AEK Athens to lead by 2 at any time 40.2% 42.0% 2.38
Aris to lead by 1 at any time 27.0% 26.0% 3.85
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 18.9% 17.7% 5.65
AEK Athens to lead by 3 at any time 17.8% 17.7% 5.66
Aris to lead by 2 at any time 6.1% 7.0% 14.24
Aris to lead by 3 at any time 1.0% 2.6% 38.89
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 85.3% 87.8% 88.5% 0.99× 1.14
1-4 goals 79.6% 78.9% 80.1% 0.98× 1.27
2-6 goals 69.0% 68.4% 72.3% 0.95× 1.46
1-3 goals 67.4% 68.3% 69.3% 0.99× 1.46
2-5 goals 66.8% 68.3% 70.1% 0.97× 1.46
2-4 goals 61.0% 62.3% 61.7% 1.01× 1.61
2-3 goals 48.9% 48.0% 50.8% 0.95× 2.08
1-2 goals 46.7% 48.0% 43.4% 1.11× 2.08
3-6 goals 40.9% 43.6% 47.5% 0.92× 2.29
3-5 goals 38.6% 38.9% 45.3% 0.86× 2.57
3-4 goals 32.9% 34.1% 36.9% 0.93× 2.93
4-6 goals 20.2% 24.7% 21.7% 1.14× 4.05
4-5 goals 17.9% 18.1% 19.5% 0.93× 5.52
5-6 goals 8.0% 8.8% 10.9% 0.81× 11.34
7+ goals 1.1% 2.0% 1.0% 1.96× 49.88
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AEK Athens never behind 61.7% 69.3% 1.44
Aris never behind 17.8% 20.2% 4.95
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 45.8% 50.1% 53.7% 0.93× 2.00
Even number of goals 54.2% 49.9% 46.3% 1.08× 2.00
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 57.5% 55.3% 1.81
Odd goals in 1st half 42.5% 44.7% 2.24
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 54.6% 51.7% 1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half 45.4% 48.3% 2.07
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 96.7% 95.6% 96.7% 0.99× 1.05
Under 4.5 goals 90.9% 92.9% 88.3% 1.05× 1.08
Over 0.5 goals 88.7% 88.8% 91.6% 0.97× 1.13
Under 3.5 goals 78.8% 78.3% 77.5% 1.01× 1.28
Over 1.5 goals 70.1% 72.4% 73.2% 0.99× 1.38
Under 2.5 goals 58.1% 57.7% 51.6% 1.12× 1.73
Over 2.5 goals 41.9% 42.3% 48.4% 0.87× 2.37
Under 1.5 goals 29.9% 27.6% 26.8% 1.03× 3.62
Over 3.5 goals 21.2% 21.7% 22.5% 0.96× 4.60
Under 0.5 goals 11.3% 11.2% 8.4% 1.34× 8.92
Over 4.5 goals 9.1% 7.1% 11.7% 0.61× 14.14
Over 5.5 goals 3.3% 4.4% 3.3% 1.33× 22.93
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 98.9% 97.2% 99.0% 0.98× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 96.5% 97.2% 96.4% 1.01× 1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 89.7% 88.2% 86.9% 1.01× 1.13
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 73.2% 72.1% 69.6% 1.04× 1.39
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 58.4% 55.4% 64.3% 0.86× 1.80
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 41.6% 44.6% 35.7% 1.25× 2.24
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 26.8% 27.9% 30.4% 0.92× 3.59
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 10.3% 11.8% 13.1% 0.90× 8.46
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 3.5% 2.8% 3.6% 0.78× 35.91
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 1.1% 2.8% 1.0% 2.63× 36.29
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 92.1% 92.2% 1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half 73.5% 72.5% 1.38
Over 0.5 in 1st half 62.7% 63.0% 1.59
Under 0.5 in 1st half 37.3% 37.0% 2.71
Over 1.5 in 1st half 26.5% 27.5% 3.63
Over 2.5 in 1st half 7.9% 7.8% 12.85
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 84.2% 82.1% 1.22
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 73.8% 76.4% 1.31
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 59.8% 54.3% 1.84
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 40.2% 45.7% 2.19
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 26.2% 23.6% 4.23
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 15.8% 17.9% 5.59
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aris not to score in both halves 92.4% 90.2% 1.11
AEK Athens not to score in both halves 67.9% 67.0% 1.49
AEK Athens to score in both halves 32.1% 33.0% 3.03
Aris to score in both halves 7.6% 9.8% 10.25
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 41.3% 45.5% 48.4% 0.94× 2.20
Only AEK Athens scores 40.3% 45.4% 24.0% 1.89× 2.20
Neither team scores 11.3% 10.8% 8.4% 1.28× 9.28
Only Aris scores 7.0% 6.6% 19.7% 0.34× 15.04
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 28.2% 24.8% 25.0% 0.99× 4.04
Exactly 3 goals 20.7% 21.5% 26.0% 0.83× 4.64
Exactly 1 goals 18.6% 18.6% 18.6% 1.00× 5.38
Exactly 4 goals 12.2% 12.4% 11.1% 1.12× 8.09
Exactly 0 goals 11.3% 12.4% 8.4% 1.47× 8.10
Exactly 5 goals 5.7% 7.6% 8.6% 0.88× 13.16
6 or more goals 3.3% 4.4% 3.3% 1.33× 22.96
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 40.2% 46.2% 2.16
1 goal in 2nd half 33.6% 33.2% 3.01
No goals in 2nd half 26.2% 28.4% 3.53
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aris not to win both halves 98.2% 96.7% 1.03
AEK Athens not to win both halves 78.9% 80.2% 1.25
AEK Athens to win both halves 21.1% 19.8% 5.06
Aris to win both halves 1.8% 3.3% 30.43
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aris to win neither half 75.7% 81.8% 1.22
AEK Athens to win either half 70.0% 72.2% 1.39
AEK Athens to win neither half 30.0% 27.8% 3.59
Aris to win either half 24.3% 18.2% 5.49
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aris not to win to nil 93.0% 92.4% 80.3% 1.15× 1.08
AEK Athens not to win to nil 59.7% 54.6% 76.0% 0.72× 1.83
AEK Athens to win to nil 40.3% 45.4% 24.0% 1.89× 2.20
Aris to win to nil 7.0% 7.6% 19.7% 0.39× 13.08
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 27.2% 28.0% 25.0% 1.12× 3.57
AEK Athens by 1 25.0% 28.0% 20.5% 1.36× 3.58
AEK Athens by 2 19.5% 17.0% 10.7% 1.60× 5.88
AEK Athens by 3+ 16.0% 17.0% 10.7% 1.59× 5.90
Aris by 1 8.6% 7.1% 20.1% 0.35× 14.08
Aris by 2 2.9% 2.8% 8.4% 0.34× 35.36
Aris by 3+ 0.7% 2.8% 5.7% 0.49× 35.69
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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