AEK Athens v LASK Linz — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Tuesday 8 September 2026 · EUR-Champions League · 2627
Champions League
results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyCalibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (555 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 10.8%
- 2-1 9.1%
- 1-0 7.7%
- 1-2 7.6%
- 0-1 6.4%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 59.5% | Under 2.5 | 40.5% |
| BTTS yes | 61.4% | BTTS no | 38.6% |
| AEK Athens 1+ | 81.3% | AEK Athens 2+ | 49.9% |
| LASK Linz 1+ | 75.5% | LASK Linz 2+ | 41.0% |
Expected goals 1.68 – 1.41. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- AEK Athens carry the stronger rating, 1757 Elo against 1715.
- Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.
Risk factors
- Data quality is 55/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
Why the model thinks this
The price
AEK Athens have an estimated 46.2% win probability, against 30.5% for LASK Linz and 23.3% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.68 for AEK Athens and 1.41 for LASK Linz.
Why AEK Athens
AEK Athens carry the stronger rating, 1757 Elo against 1715. Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 23.3%. Draws run at 16% in this competition.
Why LASK Linz can win
Form is good: 3.00 points a match from the last five.
Key players
No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.
Availability
No lineup on record for AEK Athens, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for LASK Linz, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
AEK Athens: 59% possession, 13.2 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. LASK Linz: 57% possession, 18.8 shots a match, 7.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-08 10:52 · team_stats 2026-09-08 06:03 · availability 2026-09-08 11:54 · prediction 2026-09-08 11:44 ·
AEK Athens are the model's most likely outcome at 46.2%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 10.8%. Confidence 63/100, data quality 55/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 1.68–1.41 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
python -m pipeline.ingest_understat to fill it in.