AEK Athens v PAOK — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 28 November 2026 · GRE-Super League · 2627

GRE-Super League results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

AEK Athens

20:00 UTC

PAOK

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 25 Oct, 11:02 · 825h before kick-off

AEK Athens win

48.2%

model 47.2%

Draw

29.2%

model 30.0%

PAOK win

22.6%

model 22.8%

482923

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (522 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 14.4%
0-0 10.1%
1-0 9.9%
2-1 9.3%
2-0 9.3%

Goals

Over 2.5	46.5%	Under 2.5	53.5%
BTTS yes	51.9%	BTTS no	48.1%
AEK Athens 1+	78.3%	AEK Athens 2+	45.2%
PAOK 1+	63.5%	PAOK 2+	26.7%

Expected goals 1.53 – 1.01. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

76/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

95%

★ Best pick

AEK Athens or draw (1X)

Double chance · usually 66%

77.3% fair odds 1.29

moderate signal · 1708 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

AEK Athens or draw at HT

Double chance 1HT

82.7% fair odds 1.21

moderate signal · 756 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

AEK Athens carry the stronger rating, 1769 Elo against 1725.
Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

AEK Athens have an estimated 48.2% win probability, against 29.2% for the draw and 22.6% for PAOK. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.53 for AEK Athens and 1.01 for PAOK.

Why AEK Athens

AEK Athens carry the stronger rating, 1769 Elo against 1725. Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 29.2%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why PAOK can win

Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for AEK Athens, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for PAOK, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

AEK Athens: 55% possession, 13.8 shots a match, 12.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. PAOK: 49% possession, 12.2 shots a match, 17.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-25 14:59 · team_stats 2026-10-25 06:07 · availability 2026-10-25 15:02 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

AEK Athens are the model's most likely outcome at 48.2%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 14.4%. Confidence 76/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	473023	1.53–1.01	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	423226	1.35–1.02	1-1 15%	42%	50%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AEK Athens to win	41.9%	42.9%	41.4%	1.04×	2.33
Draw	32.0%	30.4%	25.0%	1.22×	3.29
PAOK to win	26.1%	27.9%	33.8%	0.83×	3.58

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AEK Athens & not both score	24.4%	21.8%	24.0%	0.91×	4.58
Draw & both teams score	20.3%	21.8%	16.8%	1.30×	4.59
AEK Athens & both teams score	17.5%	18.0%	17.6%	1.02×	5.57
PAOK & not both score	14.4%	13.3%	19.7%	0.67×	7.53
Draw & not both score	11.7%	13.3%	8.4%	1.58×	7.54
PAOK & both teams score	11.7%	13.3%	14.3%	0.92×	7.54

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AEK Athens & over 1.5	31.6%	30.7%	32.4%	0.95×	3.25
AEK Athens & under 3.5	31.3%	30.7%	29.7%	1.03×	3.25
Draw & under 2.5	26.8%	26.1%	21.3%	1.22×	3.84
Draw & under 3.5	26.8%	26.1%	21.3%	1.22×	3.84
AEK Athens & over 2.5	23.1%	21.6%	26.4%	0.82×	4.63
Draw & over 1.5	20.3%	21.6%	16.8%	1.29×	4.63
PAOK & under 3.5	20.4%	21.6%	26.8%	0.80×	4.63
AEK Athens & under 2.5	18.8%	18.0%	15.2%	1.19×	5.56
PAOK & over 1.5	18.8%	18.0%	24.4%	0.74×	5.56
PAOK & over 2.5	13.9%	12.8%	18.4%	0.70×	7.79
Draw & under 1.5	11.7%	12.8%	8.4%	1.53×	7.79
PAOK & under 2.5	12.2%	12.8%	15.6%	0.82×	7.79
AEK Athens & under 1.5	10.3%	12.8%	9.2%	1.39×	7.79
AEK Athens & over 3.5	10.6%	12.8%	11.9%	1.08×	7.79
PAOK & under 1.5	7.3%	7.9%	9.6%	0.82×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	5.2%	7.9%	3.9%	2.03×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	5.2%	7.9%	3.9%	2.03×	12.63
PAOK & over 3.5	5.7%	7.9%	7.2%	1.10×	12.63

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AEK Athens (1UP)	56.9%	58.1%	—	—	1.72
PAOK (1UP)	42.9%	38.7%	—	—	2.59

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AEK Athens (2UP)	41.9%	47.1%	—	—	2.12
PAOK (2UP)	26.1%	25.2%	—	—	3.97

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	40.0%	41.7%	—	—	2.40
AEK Athens to win 2nd half	34.7%	34.2%	—	—	2.93
PAOK to win 2nd half	25.3%	26.0%	—	—	3.85

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
PAOK under 1.5 in 2nd half	87.4%	86.8%	—	—	1.15
PAOK under 0.5 in 2nd half	54.2%	52.8%	—	—	1.90
PAOK over 0.5 in 2nd half	45.8%	47.2%	—	—	2.12
PAOK over 1.5 in 2nd half	12.6%	13.2%	—	—	7.58

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AEK Athens under 1.5 in 2nd half	82.1%	82.6%	—	—	1.21
AEK Athens over 0.5 in 2nd half	53.6%	55.2%	—	—	1.81
AEK Athens under 0.5 in 2nd half	46.4%	44.8%	—	—	2.23
AEK Athens over 1.5 in 2nd half	17.9%	17.4%	—	—	5.76

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
PAOK (+2.5)	92.5%	92.1%	89.3%	1.03×	1.09
PAOK (+1.5)	79.3%	78.5%	78.9%	0.99×	1.27
AEK Athens (+0.5)	73.9%	73.7%	66.2%	1.11×	1.36
PAOK (+0.5)	58.1%	57.0%	58.6%	0.97×	1.75
AEK Athens (-0.5)	41.9%	43.0%	41.4%	1.04×	2.33
PAOK (-0.5)	26.1%	26.3%	33.8%	0.78×	3.80
AEK Athens (-1.5)	20.7%	21.5%	21.1%	1.02×	4.65
AEK Athens (-2.5)	7.5%	7.9%	10.7%	0.74×	12.69

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
PAOK to concede	74.0%	76.7%	72.1%	1.06×	1.30
PAOK clean sheet	26.0%	23.3%	27.9%	0.84×	4.30

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
PAOK clean sheet in 1st half	56.1%	57.0%	—	—	1.76
PAOK to concede in 1st half	43.9%	43.0%	—	—	2.32

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
PAOK to concede in 2nd half	53.6%	54.9%	—	—	1.82
PAOK clean sheet in 2nd half	46.4%	45.2%	—	—	2.22

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
PAOK under 6.5 corners	93.1%	89.9%	—	—	1.11
PAOK under 5.5 corners	86.7%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
PAOK under 4.5 corners	76.1%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
PAOK under 3.5 corners	60.5%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
PAOK over 2.5 corners	59.1%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
PAOK under 2.5 corners	40.9%	42.8%	—	—	2.34
PAOK over 3.5 corners	39.5%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
PAOK over 4.5 corners	23.9%	24.0%	—	—	4.18
PAOK over 5.5 corners	13.3%	14.8%	—	—	6.77
PAOK over 6.5 corners	6.9%	10.1%	—	—	9.89

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
PAOK under 3.5 goals	98.0%	97.5%	96.7%	1.01×	1.03
PAOK under 2.5 goals	91.6%	92.3%	89.8%	1.03×	1.08
PAOK under 1.5 goals	72.8%	71.8%	67.4%	1.07×	1.39
PAOK over 0.5 goals	64.0%	63.2%	67.8%	0.93×	1.58
PAOK under 0.5 goals	36.0%	36.8%	32.2%	1.14×	2.72
PAOK over 1.5 goals	27.2%	28.2%	32.6%	0.86×	3.55
PAOK over 2.5 goals	8.4%	7.7%	10.2%	0.75×	13.05
PAOK over 3.5 goals	2.0%	2.5%	3.3%	0.76×	39.96

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
PAOK under 1.5 in 1st half	93.6%	93.8%	—	—	1.07
PAOK under 0.5 in 1st half	66.5%	69.9%	—	—	1.43
PAOK over 0.5 in 1st half	33.5%	30.1%	—	—	3.32
PAOK over 1.5 in 1st half	6.4%	6.2%	—	—	16.23

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
PAOK scores equally in both	45.6%	48.1%	—	—	2.08
PAOK scores more in 2nd half	34.0%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
PAOK scores more in 1st half	20.4%	21.8%	—	—	4.60

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AEK Athens (away no bet)	56.7%	57.4%	62.3%	0.92×	1.74
Draw (away no bet)	43.3%	42.6%	37.7%	1.13×	2.35

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
PAOK even goals	56.5%	56.9%	56.8%	1.00×	1.76
PAOK odd goals	43.5%	43.1%	43.2%	1.00×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	89.6%	88.0%	—	—	1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals	10.4%	12.0%	—	—	8.34

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	56.8%	60.3%	—	—	1.66
Both halves under 1.5 goals	43.2%	39.7%	—	—	2.52

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	48.6%	46.2%	—	—	2.16
AEK Athens to score 2+ in a row	32.2%	29.1%	—	—	3.44
PAOK to score 2+ in a row	20.6%	19.6%	—	—	5.11
Either team to score 3+ in a row	15.4%	16.2%	—	—	6.19
AEK Athens to score 3+ in a row	10.5%	12.0%	—	—	8.35
PAOK to score 3+ in a row	5.0%	2.6%	—	—	37.82

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AEK Athens corners (+3.5)	96.6%	95.7%	—	—	1.05
AEK Athens corners (+2.5)	93.7%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
AEK Athens corners (+1.5)	89.2%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
AEK Athens corners (-1.5)	63.6%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
PAOK corners (+3.5)	58.6%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
AEK Athens corners (-2.5)	52.4%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
PAOK corners (+2.5)	47.6%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
AEK Athens corners (-3.5)	41.4%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
PAOK corners (+1.5)	36.4%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
PAOK corners (-1.5)	10.8%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
PAOK corners (-2.5)	6.3%	10.4%	—	—	9.60
PAOK corners (-3.5)	3.4%	4.3%	—	—	23.46

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	44.6%	38.3%	—	—	2.61
9-11 corners	29.5%	31.2%	—	—	3.20
12+ corners	25.9%	31.2%	—	—	3.21

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	81.2%	80.6%	—	—	1.24
Under 11.5 corners	74.1%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Over 7.5 corners	66.4%	67.8%	—	—	1.47
Under 10.5 corners	65.4%	67.8%	—	—	1.47
Over 8.5 corners	55.5%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 9.5 corners	55.4%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 9.5 corners	44.6%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Under 8.5 corners	44.6%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Over 10.5 corners	34.6%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Under 7.5 corners	33.6%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Over 11.5 corners	25.9%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 12.5 corners	18.8%	19.4%	—	—	5.17

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	15.2%	13.8%	13.1%	1.05×	7.24
0-0	11.7%	11.5%	8.4%	1.37×	8.72
1-0	10.3%	11.5%	9.2%	1.24×	8.72
2-0	8.5%	7.4%	6.1%	1.20×	13.51
2-1	8.7%	7.4%	8.6%	0.86×	13.51
0-1	7.3%	7.4%	9.6%	0.77×	13.51
1-2	6.6%	7.4%	8.6%	0.86×	13.51
0-2	4.9%	1.7%	6.1%	0.28×	58.29
0-3	1.7%	1.7%	3.1%	0.56×	58.31
0-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.8%	2.09×	58.32
1-3	2.2%	1.7%	2.0%	0.84×	58.31
1-4	0.6%	1.7%	1.4%	1.20×	58.32
2-2	4.4%	1.7%	3.7%	0.47×	58.29
2-3	1.5%	1.7%	2.3%	0.76×	58.31
2-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.6%	2.79×	58.32
3-0	3.8%	1.7%	6.4%	0.27×	58.30
3-1	3.9%	1.7%	3.5%	0.49×	58.30
3-2	2.0%	1.7%	3.1%	0.56×	58.31
3-3	0.7%	1.7%	0.4%	4.18×	58.32
3-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.2%	8.37×	58.32
4-0	1.3%	1.7%	1.8%	0.93×	58.31
4-1	1.3%	1.7%	1.4%	1.20×	58.31
4-2	0.7%	1.7%	1.4%	1.20×	58.32
4-3	0.2%	1.7%	0.2%	8.37×	58.32
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.2%	8.37×	58.32
Any other score	1.6%	1.7%	2.5%	0.70×	58.31

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AEK Athens (2nd half DNB)	57.8%	59.8%	—	—	1.67
PAOK (2nd half DNB)	42.2%	40.2%	—	—	2.49

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AEK Athens leading at HT (DNB)	60.9%	65.2%	—	—	1.53
PAOK leading at HT (DNB)	39.1%	34.8%	—	—	2.87

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AEK Athens or draw (1X)	73.9%	72.1%	66.2%	1.09×	1.39
AEK Athens or PAOK (12)	68.0%	69.6%	75.0%	0.93×	1.44
PAOK or draw (X2)	58.1%	57.1%	58.6%	0.97×	1.75

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AEK Athens or draw at HT	79.4%	79.5%	—	—	1.26
PAOK or draw at HT	67.9%	67.1%	—	—	1.49
AEK Athens or PAOK at HT	52.6%	47.7%	—	—	2.10

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AEK Athens or draw (1UP)	73.9%	79.6%	—	—	1.26
PAOK or draw (1UP)	58.1%	63.0%	—	—	1.59

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AEK Athens or draw in 2nd half	74.7%	74.0%	—	—	1.35
PAOK or draw in 2nd half	65.3%	65.8%	—	—	1.52
AEK Athens or PAOK in 2nd half	60.0%	58.3%	—	—	1.72

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	66.0%	68.0%	—	—	1.47
Neither half drawn	34.0%	32.0%	—	—	3.12

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AEK Athens (DNB)	61.6%	62.6%	55.0%	1.14×	1.60
PAOK (DNB)	38.4%	37.4%	45.0%	0.83×	2.68

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AEK Athens to score first	50.2%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
PAOK to score first	38.1%	32.8%	—	—	3.05
No goal scored	11.7%	9.7%	—	—	10.30

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	50.4%	51.3%	51.6%	0.99×	1.95
Both teams to score	49.6%	48.7%	48.4%	1.01×	2.05

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	42.7%	41.6%	38.7%	1.07×	2.41
Both score & over 2.5	34.4%	34.5%	35.5%	0.97×	2.90
Both score & under 2.5	15.2%	21.5%	13.1%	1.64×	4.65
Not both score & over 2.5	7.7%	8.3%	13.1%	0.63×	12.08

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	89.4%	85.6%	88.9%	0.96×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	10.6%	14.4%	11.1%	1.30×	6.96

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	74.7%	73.8%	—	—	1.36
Both teams to score in 2nd half	25.3%	26.2%	—	—	3.82

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	63.2%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Both score 2nd half only	21.7%	20.9%	—	—	4.78
Both score 1st half only	11.5%	10.8%	—	—	9.29
Both score in both halves	3.6%	4.9%	—	—	20.37

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	84.9%	83.2%	—	—	1.20
Both teams to score by HT	15.1%	16.8%	—	—	5.96

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half without a goal	51.9%	52.9%	—	—	1.89
A goal in each half	48.1%	47.1%	—	—	2.12

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	49.3%	47.2%	50.8%	0.93×	2.12
0-1 goals	29.3%	26.6%	26.8%	0.99×	3.76
4-6 goals	20.4%	22.9%	21.7%	1.05×	4.37
7+ goals	1.1%	1.8%	1.0%	1.79×	54.43

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
PAOK to score exactly 1	36.8%	35.9%	35.5%	1.01×	2.78
PAOK to score exactly 0	36.0%	35.9%	32.2%	1.12×	2.78
PAOK to score exactly 2	18.8%	19.6%	22.5%	0.87×	5.11
PAOK to score 3+	8.4%	8.6%	10.2%	0.84×	11.69

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AEK Athens to score exactly 1	35.0%	35.5%	33.6%	1.06×	2.81
AEK Athens to score exactly 0	26.0%	26.5%	27.9%	0.95×	3.77
AEK Athens to score exactly 2	23.6%	23.3%	20.7%	1.13×	4.29
AEK Athens to score 3+	15.4%	18.7%	18.2%	1.03×	5.34

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	47.4%	52.3%	—	—	1.91
AEK Athens leading at HT	32.1%	32.9%	—	—	3.04
PAOK leading at HT	20.6%	20.5%	—	—	4.89

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AEK Athens -1: 2	58.1%	56.8%	—	—	1.76
AEK Athens -1: X	21.2%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
AEK Athens -1: 1	20.7%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
PAOK (0:1)	58.1%	55.8%	58.6%	0.95×	1.79
Draw (0:1)	21.2%	24.2%	20.5%	1.18×	4.13
AEK Athens (0:1)	20.7%	24.2%	21.1%	1.15×	4.13

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
PAOK (0:2)	79.3%	79.4%	78.9%	1.01×	1.26
Draw (0:2)	13.1%	11.0%	10.7%	1.03×	9.10
AEK Athens (0:2)	7.5%	7.7%	10.7%	0.72×	13.04

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
PAOK (0:3)	92.5%	92.7%	89.3%	1.04×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	5.3%	5.8%	8.0%	0.72×	17.26
AEK Athens (0:3)	2.2%	2.4%	2.9%	0.83×	42.13

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
PAOK (0:4)	97.8%	98.1%	97.1%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.7%	1.2%	1.8%	0.66×	81.98
AEK Athens (0:4)	0.5%	1.2%	1.2%	0.99×	82.11

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AEK Athens (1:0)	73.9%	72.4%	66.2%	1.09×	1.38
Draw (1:0)	15.6%	17.1%	20.1%	0.85×	5.85
PAOK (1:0)	10.6%	12.7%	13.9%	0.91×	7.88

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AEK Athens (2:0)	89.4%	88.5%	86.1%	1.03×	1.13
Draw (2:0)	7.5%	6.4%	8.4%	0.76×	15.67
PAOK (2:0)	3.0%	2.3%	5.7%	0.40×	43.70

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	44.0%	46.1%	—	—	2.17
Halves equal	30.6%	27.5%	—	—	3.63
1st half highest scoring	25.4%	26.2%	—	—	3.82

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AEK Athens to concede	64.0%	63.7%	67.8%	0.94×	1.57
AEK Athens clean sheet	36.0%	36.3%	32.2%	1.13×	2.75

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AEK Athens clean sheet in 1st half	66.5%	70.2%	—	—	1.43
AEK Athens to concede in 1st half	33.5%	29.8%	—	—	3.35

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AEK Athens clean sheet in 2nd half	54.2%	52.9%	—	—	1.89
AEK Athens to concede in 2nd half	45.8%	47.1%	—	—	2.12

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AEK Athens over 2.5 corners	89.5%	86.3%	—	—	1.16
AEK Athens over 3.5 corners	79.4%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
AEK Athens over 4.5 corners	66.7%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
AEK Athens under 6.5 corners	59.5%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
AEK Athens over 5.5 corners	53.3%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
AEK Athens under 5.5 corners	46.7%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
AEK Athens over 6.5 corners	40.5%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
AEK Athens under 4.5 corners	33.3%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
AEK Athens under 3.5 corners	20.6%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
AEK Athens under 2.5 corners	10.5%	13.7%	—	—	7.28

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AEK Athens under 3.5 goals	95.2%	96.4%	94.3%	1.02×	1.04
AEK Athens under 2.5 goals	84.6%	82.2%	81.8%	1.01×	1.22
AEK Athens over 0.5 goals	74.0%	74.3%	72.1%	1.03×	1.35
AEK Athens under 1.5 goals	61.1%	63.6%	61.3%	1.04×	1.57
AEK Athens over 1.5 goals	38.9%	36.4%	38.7%	0.94×	2.75
AEK Athens under 0.5 goals	26.0%	25.7%	27.9%	0.92×	3.88
AEK Athens over 2.5 goals	15.4%	17.8%	18.2%	0.97×	5.63
AEK Athens over 3.5 goals	4.8%	3.6%	5.7%	0.63×	27.46

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AEK Athens under 1.5 in 1st half	88.5%	90.2%	—	—	1.11
AEK Athens under 0.5 in 1st half	56.1%	56.8%	—	—	1.76
AEK Athens over 0.5 in 1st half	43.9%	43.2%	—	—	2.32
AEK Athens over 1.5 in 1st half	11.5%	9.8%	—	—	10.20

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AEK Athens scores equally in both	38.9%	37.8%	—	—	2.64
AEK Athens scores more in 2nd half	36.3%	37.8%	—	—	2.65
AEK Athens scores more in 1st half	24.8%	21.2%	—	—	4.72

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	55.1%	56.4%	42.5%	1.33×	1.77
PAOK (home no bet)	44.9%	43.6%	57.5%	0.76×	2.29

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AEK Athens even goals	53.4%	50.7%	52.9%	0.96×	1.97
AEK Athens odd goals	46.6%	49.3%	47.1%	1.05×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	37.7%	39.2%	—	—	2.55
HT 1-0	21.2%	24.3%	—	—	4.12
HT 0-1	14.8%	11.0%	—	—	9.08
HT 1-1	9.2%	6.9%	—	—	14.43
HT 2-0	6.2%	6.9%	—	—	14.48
HT 0-2	3.1%	2.4%	—	—	42.01
Any other HT score	2.9%	2.4%	—	—	42.02
HT 2-1	2.5%	2.4%	—	—	42.04
HT 1-2	1.8%	2.4%	—	—	42.09
HT 2-2	0.5%	2.4%	—	—	42.17

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AEK Athens at HT / AEK Athens at FT	24.7%	21.8%	—	—	4.60
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	21.4%	21.7%	—	—	4.62
Draw at HT / AEK Athens at FT	15.2%	16.8%	—	—	5.97
PAOK at HT / PAOK at FT	13.6%	12.7%	—	—	7.90
Draw at HT / PAOK at FT	10.8%	12.6%	—	—	7.92
AEK Athens at HT / Draw at FT	5.7%	6.1%	—	—	16.48
PAOK at HT / Draw at FT	5.0%	3.5%	—	—	28.79
PAOK at HT / AEK Athens at FT	2.0%	3.5%	—	—	28.90
AEK Athens at HT / PAOK at FT	1.7%	3.5%	—	—	28.91

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AEK Athens to score last	50.4%	52.0%	—	—	1.93
PAOK to score last	37.9%	38.8%	—	—	2.58
No goal scored	11.7%	9.1%	—	—	10.98

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	88.3%	91.4%	—	—	1.09
AEK Athens to lead by 1 at any time	56.9%	54.9%	—	—	1.82
PAOK to lead by 1 at any time	42.9%	39.3%	—	—	2.55
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	40.7%	39.2%	—	—	2.55
AEK Athens to lead by 2 at any time	25.9%	25.3%	—	—	3.95
PAOK to lead by 2 at any time	14.9%	10.6%	—	—	9.47
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	13.1%	10.5%	—	—	9.50
AEK Athens to lead by 3 at any time	9.1%	6.7%	—	—	14.88
PAOK to lead by 3 at any time	4.0%	1.6%	—	—	61.12

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AEK Athens most corners	73.9%	70.6%	—	—	1.42
PAOK most corners	17.4%	19.2%	—	—	5.21
Corners level	8.7%	8.3%	—	—	11.99

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	85.0%	83.4%	88.5%	0.94×	1.20
1-4 goals	79.2%	78.7%	80.1%	0.98×	1.27
2-6 goals	69.6%	68.8%	72.3%	0.95×	1.45
2-5 goals	67.3%	68.8%	70.1%	0.98×	1.45
1-3 goals	66.9%	68.8%	69.3%	0.99×	1.45
2-4 goals	61.5%	63.3%	61.7%	1.03×	1.58
2-3 goals	49.3%	48.5%	50.8%	0.95×	2.06
1-2 goals	46.2%	48.5%	43.4%	1.12×	2.06
3-6 goals	41.1%	43.6%	47.5%	0.92×	2.29
3-5 goals	38.8%	39.2%	45.3%	0.87×	2.55
3-4 goals	33.0%	35.2%	36.9%	0.95×	2.84
4-6 goals	20.4%	24.5%	21.7%	1.13×	4.09
4-5 goals	18.1%	18.8%	19.5%	0.97×	5.31
5-6 goals	8.1%	8.9%	10.9%	0.82×	11.26
7+ goals	1.1%	2.6%	1.0%	2.49×	39.21

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AEK Athens never behind	45.4%	56.5%	—	—	1.77
PAOK never behind	31.4%	36.1%	—	—	2.77

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of goals	55.0%	50.5%	46.3%	1.09×	1.98
Odd number of goals	45.0%	49.5%	53.7%	0.92×	2.02

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	57.7%	57.7%	—	—	1.73
Odd goals in 1st half	42.3%	42.3%	—	—	2.36

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	54.7%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	45.3%	48.0%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	96.6%	95.4%	96.7%	0.99×	1.05
Under 4.5 goals	90.8%	92.3%	88.3%	1.04×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	88.3%	87.6%	91.6%	0.96×	1.14
Under 3.5 goals	78.6%	77.3%	77.5%	1.00×	1.29
Over 1.5 goals	70.7%	72.5%	73.2%	0.99×	1.38
Under 2.5 goals	57.8%	58.6%	51.6%	1.14×	1.71
Over 2.5 goals	42.2%	41.4%	48.4%	0.86×	2.42
Under 1.5 goals	29.3%	27.5%	26.8%	1.03×	3.63
Over 3.5 goals	21.4%	22.7%	22.5%	1.01×	4.41
Under 0.5 goals	11.7%	12.4%	8.4%	1.48×	8.06
Over 4.5 goals	9.2%	7.7%	11.7%	0.66×	12.94
Over 5.5 goals	3.4%	4.6%	3.3%	1.40×	21.84

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	98.9%	97.2%	99.0%	0.98×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	96.4%	97.2%	96.4%	1.01×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	89.5%	86.8%	86.9%	1.00×	1.15
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	73.0%	72.4%	69.6%	1.04×	1.38
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	59.0%	55.8%	64.3%	0.87×	1.79
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	41.0%	44.2%	35.7%	1.24×	2.26
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	27.0%	27.6%	30.4%	0.91×	3.62
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	10.5%	13.2%	13.1%	1.01×	7.55
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	3.6%	2.8%	3.6%	0.79×	35.57
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	1.1%	2.8%	1.0%	2.68×	35.64

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	92.2%	92.6%	—	—	1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half	73.7%	71.5%	—	—	1.40
Over 0.5 in 1st half	62.3%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Under 0.5 in 1st half	37.7%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 1.5 in 1st half	26.3%	28.5%	—	—	3.50
Over 2.5 in 1st half	7.8%	7.4%	—	—	13.58

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	83.8%	83.0%	—	—	1.21
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	74.1%	77.6%	—	—	1.29
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	59.1%	55.3%	—	—	1.81
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	40.9%	44.7%	—	—	2.24
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	25.9%	22.4%	—	—	4.47
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	16.2%	17.0%	—	—	5.88

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
PAOK not to score in both halves	84.6%	84.3%	—	—	1.19
AEK Athens not to score in both halves	76.5%	78.5%	—	—	1.27
AEK Athens to score in both halves	23.5%	21.5%	—	—	4.65
PAOK to score in both halves	15.4%	15.7%	—	—	6.36

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	49.6%	50.7%	48.4%	1.05×	1.97
Only AEK Athens scores	24.4%	22.3%	24.0%	0.93×	4.49
Only PAOK scores	14.4%	11.0%	19.7%	0.56×	9.06
Neither team scores	11.7%	11.0%	8.4%	1.31×	9.07

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	28.6%	24.9%	25.0%	1.00×	4.02
Exactly 3 goals	20.7%	22.6%	26.0%	0.87×	4.43
Exactly 1 goals	17.6%	17.5%	18.6%	0.94×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	12.3%	12.1%	11.1%	1.10×	8.25
Exactly 0 goals	11.7%	12.1%	8.4%	1.44×	8.25
Exactly 5 goals	5.8%	7.6%	8.6%	0.88×	13.15
6 or more goals	3.4%	4.5%	3.3%	1.36×	22.37

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
No goals in 1st half	37.7%	37.4%	—	—	2.68
1 goal in 1st half	36.0%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
2 goals in 1st half	18.6%	15.6%	—	—	6.40
3+ goals in 1st half	7.8%	7.4%	—	—	13.58

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	40.9%	44.5%	—	—	2.25
1 goal in 2nd half	33.2%	33.7%	—	—	2.96
No goals in 2nd half	25.9%	29.3%	—	—	3.41

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
PAOK not to win both halves	94.5%	94.2%	—	—	1.06
AEK Athens not to win both halves	88.5%	88.0%	—	—	1.14
AEK Athens to win both halves	11.5%	12.0%	—	—	8.34
PAOK to win both halves	5.5%	5.8%	—	—	17.20

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
PAOK to win neither half	59.6%	59.2%	—	—	1.69
AEK Athens to win either half	55.2%	59.1%	—	—	1.69
AEK Athens to win neither half	44.8%	40.9%	—	—	2.44
PAOK to win either half	40.4%	40.8%	—	—	2.45

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
PAOK not to win to nil	85.6%	88.1%	80.3%	1.10×	1.14
AEK Athens not to win to nil	75.6%	78.1%	76.0%	1.03×	1.28
AEK Athens to win to nil	24.4%	21.9%	24.0%	0.91×	4.56
PAOK to win to nil	14.4%	11.9%	19.7%	0.60×	8.41

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	32.0%	27.7%	25.0%	1.11×	3.61
AEK Athens by 1	21.2%	24.1%	20.5%	1.18×	4.15
PAOK by 1	15.6%	17.0%	20.1%	0.85×	5.87
AEK Athens by 2	13.1%	11.8%	10.7%	1.10×	8.51
PAOK by 2	7.5%	7.2%	8.4%	0.86×	13.91
AEK Athens by 3+	7.5%	7.2%	10.7%	0.67×	13.91
PAOK by 3+	3.0%	2.7%	5.7%	0.47×	36.84