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AEK Athens v Volos NFC — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 12 December 2026 · GRE-Super League · 2627

GRE-Super League results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
AEK Athens win
76.1%
model 76.4%
Draw
17.6%
model 17.6%
Volos NFC win
6.3%
model 6.0%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (68 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 2-0 14.5%
  2. 3-0 11.6%
  3. 1-0 10.8%
  4. 2-1 8.5%
  5. 1-1 8.4%

Goals

Over 2.557.4% Under 2.542.6%
BTTS yes41.7% BTTS no58.3%
AEK Athens 1+90.9% AEK Athens 2+69.1%
Volos NFC 1+44.5% Volos NFC 2+11.8%

Expected goals 2.40 – 0.59. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
79/100
Data quality
65/100
Model agreement
98%
★ Best pick
AEK Athens (-1.5)
Asian handicap · usually 21%
52.3% fair odds 1.91
strong signal · 1133 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Volos NFC (0:4)
Handicap 0:4 · usually 97%
84.3% fair odds 1.19
weak signal · 64 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • AEK Athens carry the stronger rating, 1769 Elo against 1340.
  • Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

AEK Athens have an estimated 76.1% win probability, against 17.6% for the draw and 6.3% for Volos NFC. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.40 for AEK Athens and 0.59 for Volos NFC.

Why AEK Athens

AEK Athens carry the stronger rating, 1769 Elo against 1340. Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 17.6%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Volos NFC can win

Nothing in the data singles out Volos NFC.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for AEK Athens, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Volos NFC, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

AEK Athens: 55% possession, 13.8 shots a match, 12.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Volos NFC: 47% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 14.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-24 13:59 · team_stats 2026-10-24 06:04 · availability 2026-10-24 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

AEK Athens are the model's most likely outcome at 76.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-0 at 14.5%. Confidence 79/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 2.40–0.59 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 2.52–0.56 2-0 15% 60% 41%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AEK Athens to win 78.9% 78.4% 41.4% 1.89× 1.28
Draw 16.1% 19.4% 25.0% 0.77× 5.16
Volos NFC to win 5.1% 8.0% 33.8% 0.24× 12.51
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AEK Athens & not both score 51.3% 48.1% 24.0% 2.01× 2.08
AEK Athens & both teams score 27.5% 25.2% 17.6% 1.43× 3.97
Draw & both teams score 10.3% 13.3% 16.8% 0.79× 7.54
Draw & not both score 5.7% 8.3% 8.4% 0.99× 12.02
Volos NFC & both teams score 2.8% 4.9% 14.3% 0.34× 20.62
Volos NFC & not both score 2.3% 4.8% 19.7% 0.25× 20.63
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AEK Athens & over 1.5 68.4% 67.8% 32.4% 2.09× 1.48
AEK Athens & over 2.5 53.9% 48.9% 26.4% 1.85× 2.05
AEK Athens & under 3.5 45.4% 45.0% 29.7% 1.52× 2.22
AEK Athens & over 3.5 33.4% 30.8% 11.9% 2.59× 3.25
AEK Athens & under 2.5 25.0% 26.1% 15.2% 1.72× 3.84
Draw & under 2.5 13.4% 12.8% 21.3% 0.60× 7.79
Draw & under 3.5 13.4% 12.8% 21.3% 0.60× 7.79
AEK Athens & under 1.5 10.4% 12.8% 9.2% 1.39× 7.79
Draw & over 1.5 10.3% 12.8% 16.8% 0.76× 7.79
Draw & under 1.5 5.7% 7.9% 8.4% 0.94× 12.63
Volos NFC & under 3.5 4.1% 4.8% 26.8% 0.18× 20.81
Volos NFC & over 1.5 3.7% 4.8% 24.4% 0.20× 20.81
Draw & over 2.5 2.7% 4.8% 3.9% 1.23× 20.82
Draw & over 3.5 2.7% 4.8% 3.9% 1.23× 20.82
Volos NFC & over 2.5 2.9% 4.8% 18.4% 0.26× 20.82
Volos NFC & under 2.5 2.1% 4.8% 15.6% 0.31× 20.82
Volos NFC & under 1.5 1.4% 4.8% 9.6% 0.50× 20.83
Volos NFC & over 3.5 1.0% 4.8% 7.2% 0.67× 20.83
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AEK Athens (1UP) 85.5% 89.9% — — 1.11
Volos NFC (1UP) 18.6% 23.6% — — 4.24
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AEK Athens (2UP) 78.9% 77.9% — — 1.28
Volos NFC (2UP) 5.1% 7.6% — — 13.15
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AEK Athens to win 2nd half 64.9% 60.8% — — 1.64
2nd half drawn 27.0% 25.9% — — 3.87
Volos NFC to win 2nd half 8.1% 7.0% — — 14.24
2nd half away goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Volos NFC under 1.5 in 2nd half 95.5% 92.8% — — 1.08
Volos NFC under 0.5 in 2nd half 71.4% 75.2% — — 1.33
Volos NFC over 0.5 in 2nd half 28.6% 24.8% — — 4.04
Volos NFC over 1.5 in 2nd half 4.5% 7.2% — — 13.89
2nd half home goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AEK Athens over 0.5 in 2nd half 76.2% 75.4% — — 1.33
AEK Athens under 1.5 in 2nd half 57.9% 58.0% — — 1.73
AEK Athens over 1.5 in 2nd half 42.1% 42.0% — — 2.38
AEK Athens under 0.5 in 2nd half 23.8% 24.6% — — 4.07
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AEK Athens (+0.5) 94.9% 92.1% 66.2% 1.39× 1.09
AEK Athens (-0.5) 78.9% 78.5% 41.4% 1.90× 1.27
Volos NFC (+2.5) 64.7% 63.0% 89.3% 0.70× 1.59
AEK Athens (-1.5) 58.1% 57.0% 21.1% 2.70× 1.75
Volos NFC (+1.5) 41.9% 43.0% 78.9% 0.54× 2.33
AEK Athens (-2.5) 35.3% 37.0% 10.7% 3.48× 2.70
Volos NFC (+0.5) 21.1% 21.5% 58.6% 0.37× 4.65
Volos NFC (-0.5) 5.1% 7.9% 33.8% 0.23× 12.71
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Volos NFC to concede 92.0% 91.8% 72.1% 1.27× 1.09
Volos NFC clean sheet 8.0% 8.2% 27.9% 0.29× 12.26
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Volos NFC to concede in 1st half 66.2% 70.7% — — 1.42
Volos NFC clean sheet in 1st half 33.8% 29.3% — — 3.41
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Volos NFC to concede in 2nd half 76.2% 75.5% — — 1.32
Volos NFC clean sheet in 2nd half 23.8% 24.5% — — 4.09
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Volos NFC under 6.5 corners 97.5% 95.7% — — 1.05
Volos NFC under 5.5 corners 94.1% 89.9% — — 1.11
Volos NFC under 4.5 corners 87.4% 85.2% — — 1.17
Volos NFC under 3.5 corners 75.1% 76.0% — — 1.32
Volos NFC under 2.5 corners 56.1% 57.2% — — 1.75
Volos NFC over 2.5 corners 43.9% 42.8% — — 2.33
Volos NFC over 3.5 corners 24.9% 24.0% — — 4.17
Volos NFC over 4.5 corners 12.6% 14.8% — — 6.77
Volos NFC over 5.5 corners 5.9% 10.1% — — 9.92
Volos NFC over 6.5 corners 2.5% 4.3% — — 23.18
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Volos NFC under 3.5 goals 99.7% 97.5% 96.7% 1.01× 1.03
Volos NFC under 2.5 goals 98.1% 97.5% 89.8% 1.09× 1.03
Volos NFC under 1.5 goals 89.1% 87.8% 67.4% 1.30× 1.14
Volos NFC under 0.5 goals 57.1% 59.4% 32.2% 1.85× 1.68
Volos NFC over 0.5 goals 42.9% 40.6% 67.8% 0.60× 2.46
Volos NFC over 1.5 goals 10.9% 12.2% 32.6% 0.37× 8.21
Volos NFC over 2.5 goals 1.9% 2.5% 10.2% 0.24× 39.93
Volos NFC over 3.5 goals 0.3% 2.5% 3.3% 0.76× 40.02
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Volos NFC under 1.5 in 1st half 97.8% 96.3% — — 1.04
Volos NFC under 0.5 in 1st half 79.9% 75.7% — — 1.32
Volos NFC over 0.5 in 1st half 20.1% 24.3% — — 4.12
Volos NFC over 1.5 in 1st half 2.2% 3.7% — — 26.68
Away highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Volos NFC scores equally in both 61.5% 62.1% — — 1.61
Volos NFC scores more in 2nd half 23.7% 22.1% — — 4.52
Volos NFC scores more in 1st half 14.9% 12.9% — — 7.73
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AEK Athens (away no bet) 83.1% 82.7% 62.3% 1.33× 1.21
Draw (away no bet) 16.9% 17.3% 37.7% 0.46× 5.79
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Volos NFC even goals 66.3% 64.9% 56.8% 1.14× 1.54
Volos NFC odd goals 33.7% 35.1% 43.2% 0.81× 2.85
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 80.1% 82.8% — — 1.21
Both halves over 1.5 goals 19.9% 17.2% — — 5.82
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 71.2% 67.3% — — 1.49
Both halves under 1.5 goals 28.8% 32.7% — — 3.06
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 70.4% 71.8% — — 1.39
AEK Athens to score 2+ in a row 67.2% 62.4% — — 1.60
Either team to score 3+ in a row 40.0% 36.7% — — 2.72
AEK Athens to score 3+ in a row 39.4% 36.7% — — 2.72
Volos NFC to score 2+ in a row 6.2% 5.5% — — 18.06
Volos NFC to score 3+ in a row 0.7% 2.5% — — 40.29
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AEK Athens corners (+3.5) 98.1% 95.7% — — 1.04
AEK Athens corners (+2.5) 96.0% 95.7% — — 1.05
AEK Athens corners (+1.5) 92.3% 89.6% — — 1.12
AEK Athens corners (-1.5) 66.4% 65.9% — — 1.52
Volos NFC corners (+3.5) 58.1% 57.1% — — 1.75
AEK Athens corners (-2.5) 54.1% 52.4% — — 1.91
Volos NFC corners (+2.5) 45.9% 47.6% — — 2.10
AEK Athens corners (-3.5) 41.9% 42.9% — — 2.33
Volos NFC corners (+1.5) 33.6% 34.1% — — 2.93
Volos NFC corners (-1.5) 7.7% 10.4% — — 9.59
Volos NFC corners (-2.5) 4.0% 4.3% — — 23.43
Volos NFC corners (-3.5) 1.9% 4.3% — — 23.49
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 59.6% 46.6% — — 2.14
9-11 corners 25.6% 31.2% — — 3.21
12+ corners 14.8% 21.2% — — 4.72
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 90.2% 83.4% — — 1.20
Under 11.5 corners 85.2% 83.1% — — 1.20
Under 10.5 corners 78.6% 76.6% — — 1.31
Under 9.5 corners 70.0% 67.8% — — 1.47
Under 8.5 corners 59.6% 57.9% — — 1.73
Over 7.5 corners 52.0% 53.2% — — 1.88
Under 7.5 corners 48.0% 46.8% — — 2.14
Over 8.5 corners 40.4% 42.1% — — 2.38
Over 9.5 corners 30.0% 32.2% — — 3.11
Over 10.5 corners 21.5% 23.4% — — 4.27
Over 11.5 corners 14.8% 16.9% — — 5.91
Over 12.5 corners 9.8% 16.6% — — 6.01
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.1% — — 2.00
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.9% — — 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-0 14.6% 11.5% 6.1% 1.87× 8.72
3-0 12.3% 11.5% 6.4% 1.81× 8.72
Any other score 11.1% 11.5% 2.5% 4.66× 8.72
1-0 10.4% 11.5% 9.2% 1.24× 8.72
1-1 7.6% 7.4% 13.1% 0.56× 13.51
2-1 8.2% 7.4% 8.6% 0.86× 13.51
3-1 6.9% 7.4% 3.5% 2.13× 13.51
4-0 7.7% 7.4% 1.8% 4.01× 13.51
0-0 5.7% 7.4% 8.4% 0.88× 13.51
0-1 1.4% 1.7% 9.6% 0.18× 58.31
0-2 0.7% 1.7% 6.1% 0.28× 58.32
0-3 0.1% 1.7% 3.1% 0.56× 58.32
0-4 0.0% 1.7% 0.8% 2.09× 58.32
1-2 1.8% 1.7% 8.6% 0.20× 58.31
1-3 0.3% 1.7% 2.0% 0.84× 58.32
1-4 0.0% 1.7% 1.4% 1.20× 58.32
2-2 2.3% 1.7% 3.7% 0.47× 58.31
2-3 0.4% 1.7% 2.3% 0.76× 58.32
2-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.6% 2.79× 58.32
3-2 1.9% 1.7% 3.1% 0.56× 58.31
3-3 0.4% 1.7% 0.4% 4.18× 58.32
3-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.2% 8.37× 58.32
4-1 4.3% 1.7% 1.4% 1.20× 58.29
4-2 1.2% 1.7% 1.4% 1.20× 58.31
4-3 0.2% 1.7% 0.2% 8.37× 58.32
4-4 0.0% 1.7% 0.2% 8.37× 58.32
DNB 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AEK Athens (2nd half DNB) 88.9% 87.3% — — 1.15
Volos NFC (2nd half DNB) 11.1% 12.7% — — 7.89
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AEK Athens leading at HT (DNB) 88.7% 87.8% — — 1.14
Volos NFC leading at HT (DNB) 11.3% 12.2% — — 8.19
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AEK Athens or draw (1X) 94.9% 92.0% 66.2% 1.39× 1.09
AEK Athens or Volos NFC (12) 83.9% 80.6% 75.0% 1.08× 1.24
Volos NFC or draw (X2) 21.1% 21.6% 58.6% 0.37× 4.63
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AEK Athens or draw at HT 92.6% 92.3% — — 1.08
AEK Athens or Volos NFC at HT 65.6% 67.1% — — 1.49
Volos NFC or draw at HT 41.8% 41.9% — — 2.39
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AEK Athens or draw (1UP) 94.9% 94.5% — — 1.06
Volos NFC or draw (1UP) 21.1% 23.1% — — 4.34
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AEK Athens or draw in 2nd half 91.9% 93.0% — — 1.08
AEK Athens or Volos NFC in 2nd half 73.0% 74.1% — — 1.35
Volos NFC or draw in 2nd half 35.1% 39.2% — — 2.55
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 50.8% 50.1% — — 2.00
Neither half drawn 49.2% 49.9% — — 2.00
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AEK Athens (DNB) 94.0% 93.4% 55.0% 1.70× 1.07
Volos NFC (DNB) 6.0% 6.6% 45.0% 0.15× 15.27
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AEK Athens to score first 77.1% 80.8% — — 1.24
Volos NFC to score first 17.2% 17.5% — — 5.70
No goal scored 5.7% 7.4% — — 13.51
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 59.4% 55.0% 51.6% 1.07× 1.82
Both teams to score 40.6% 45.0% 48.4% 0.93× 2.22
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 33.0% 34.5% 35.5% 0.97× 2.90
Not both score & under 2.5 32.9% 34.5% 38.7% 0.89× 2.90
Not both score & over 2.5 26.5% 33.3% 13.1% 2.54× 3.00
Both score & under 2.5 7.6% 8.3% 13.1% 0.63× 12.07
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 92.2% 89.0% 88.9% 1.00× 1.12
Both teams to score 2+ 7.8% 11.0% 11.1% 0.99× 9.09
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 77.8% 74.7% — — 1.34
Both teams to score in 2nd half 22.2% 25.3% — — 3.96
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 67.2% 63.3% — — 1.58
Both score 2nd half only 19.3% 15.1% — — 6.63
Both score 1st half only 10.6% 10.7% — — 9.34
Both score in both halves 2.9% 4.9% — — 20.47
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 86.5% 85.3% — — 1.17
Both teams to score by HT 13.5% 14.7% — — 6.78
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 61.2% 59.6% — — 1.68
A half without a goal 38.8% 40.4% — — 2.48
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 45.3% 47.2% 50.8% 0.93× 2.12
4-6 goals 33.4% 30.7% 21.7% 1.42× 3.25
0-1 goals 17.6% 20.2% 26.8% 0.75× 4.94
7+ goals 3.7% 1.8% 1.0% 1.80× 54.13
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Volos NFC to score exactly 0 57.1% 51.8% 32.2% 1.61× 1.93
Volos NFC to score exactly 1 32.0% 33.8% 35.5% 0.95× 2.96
Volos NFC to score exactly 2 9.0% 8.6% 22.5% 0.38× 11.68
Volos NFC to score 3+ 1.9% 4.6% 10.2% 0.45× 21.93
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AEK Athens to score 3+ 46.1% 37.3% 18.2% 2.05× 2.68
AEK Athens to score exactly 2 25.6% 26.5% 20.7% 1.28× 3.77
AEK Athens to score exactly 1 20.3% 23.3% 33.6% 0.69× 4.29
AEK Athens to score exactly 0 8.0% 10.3% 27.9% 0.37× 9.70
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AEK Athens leading at HT 58.2% 58.1% — — 1.72
Draw at HT 34.4% 32.9% — — 3.04
Volos NFC leading at HT 7.4% 7.7% — — 13.05
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AEK Athens -1: 1 58.1% 56.8% — — 1.76
AEK Athens -1: 2 21.1% 23.5% — — 4.26
AEK Athens -1: X 20.8% 23.5% — — 4.26
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AEK Athens (0:1) 58.1% 55.8% 21.1% 2.65× 1.79
Volos NFC (0:1) 21.1% 24.2% 58.6% 0.41× 4.13
Draw (0:1) 20.8% 24.2% 20.5% 1.18× 4.13
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Volos NFC (0:2) 41.9% 38.7% 78.9% 0.49× 2.58
AEK Athens (0:2) 35.3% 38.0% 10.7% 3.57× 2.63
Draw (0:2) 22.8% 20.3% 10.7% 1.91× 4.92
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Volos NFC (0:3) 64.7% 66.4% 89.3% 0.74× 1.51
AEK Athens (0:3) 18.0% 16.2% 2.9% 5.64× 6.18
Draw (0:3) 17.3% 16.1% 8.0% 2.02× 6.19
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Volos NFC (0:4) 82.0% 87.2% 97.1% 0.90× 1.15
Draw (0:4) 10.2% 9.8% 1.8% 5.29× 10.25
AEK Athens (0:4) 7.8% 4.6% 1.2% 3.77× 21.58
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AEK Athens (1:0) 94.9% 92.8% 66.2% 1.40× 1.08
Draw (1:0) 3.7% 3.3% 20.1% 0.16× 30.52
Volos NFC (1:0) 1.3% 3.2% 13.9% 0.23× 30.89
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AEK Athens (2:0) 98.7% 96.8% 86.1% 1.13× 1.03
Draw (2:0) 1.1% 2.3% 8.4% 0.27× 43.76
Volos NFC (2:0) 0.2% 2.3% 5.7% 0.40× 43.82
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 47.4% 48.7% — — 2.05
1st half highest scoring 27.6% 26.2% — — 3.81
Halves equal 25.0% 24.5% — — 4.08
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AEK Athens clean sheet 57.1% 60.7% 32.2% 1.89× 1.65
AEK Athens to concede 42.9% 39.3% 67.8% 0.58× 2.54
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AEK Athens clean sheet in 1st half 79.9% 79.5% — — 1.26
AEK Athens to concede in 1st half 20.1% 20.5% — — 4.87
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AEK Athens clean sheet in 2nd half 71.4% 72.0% — — 1.39
AEK Athens to concede in 2nd half 28.6% 28.0% — — 3.58
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AEK Athens over 2.5 corners 86.0% 86.2% — — 1.16
AEK Athens over 3.5 corners 73.7% 71.9% — — 1.39
AEK Athens under 6.5 corners 67.4% 66.7% — — 1.50
AEK Athens over 4.5 corners 59.5% 57.5% — — 1.74
AEK Athens under 5.5 corners 54.7% 52.6% — — 1.90
AEK Athens over 5.5 corners 45.3% 47.4% — — 2.11
AEK Athens under 4.5 corners 40.5% 42.5% — — 2.35
AEK Athens over 6.5 corners 32.6% 33.3% — — 3.01
AEK Athens under 3.5 corners 26.3% 28.1% — — 3.55
AEK Athens under 2.5 corners 14.0% 13.8% — — 7.26
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AEK Athens over 0.5 goals 92.0% 92.2% 72.1% 1.28× 1.08
AEK Athens under 3.5 goals 75.4% 77.7% 94.3% 0.82× 1.29
AEK Athens over 1.5 goals 71.7% 74.2% 38.7% 1.92× 1.35
AEK Athens under 2.5 goals 53.9% 53.2% 81.8% 0.65× 1.88
AEK Athens over 2.5 goals 46.1% 46.8% 18.2% 2.56× 2.14
AEK Athens under 1.5 goals 28.3% 25.8% 61.3% 0.42× 3.88
AEK Athens over 3.5 goals 24.6% 22.3% 5.7% 3.88× 4.49
AEK Athens under 0.5 goals 8.0% 7.8% 27.9% 0.28× 12.88
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AEK Athens under 1.5 in 1st half 70.5% 78.9% — — 1.27
AEK Athens over 0.5 in 1st half 66.2% 69.0% — — 1.45
AEK Athens under 0.5 in 1st half 33.8% 31.0% — — 3.22
AEK Athens over 1.5 in 1st half 29.5% 21.1% — — 4.74
Home highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AEK Athens scores more in 2nd half 45.1% 46.9% — — 2.13
AEK Athens scores more in 1st half 28.5% 27.7% — — 3.60
AEK Athens scores equally in both 26.4% 27.7% — — 3.61
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw (home no bet) 76.0% 77.6% 42.5% 1.83× 1.29
Volos NFC (home no bet) 24.0% 22.4% 57.5% 0.39× 4.47
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AEK Athens even goals 50.3% 50.7% 52.9% 0.96× 1.97
AEK Athens odd goals 49.7% 49.3% 47.1% 1.05× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 1-0 29.1% 28.3% — — 3.53
HT 0-0 27.2% 28.2% — — 3.54
HT 2-0 15.9% 18.6% — — 5.38
Any other HT score 9.8% 6.9% — — 14.43
HT 1-1 6.8% 6.9% — — 14.48
HT 0-1 5.9% 6.9% — — 14.49
HT 2-1 3.6% 2.4% — — 42.06
HT 0-2 0.7% 2.4% — — 42.25
HT 1-2 0.7% 2.4% — — 42.25
HT 2-2 0.4% 2.4% — — 42.27
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AEK Athens at HT / AEK Athens at FT 54.9% 54.7% — — 1.83
Draw at HT / AEK Athens at FT 21.5% 21.6% — — 4.63
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 10.7% 12.6% — — 7.91
AEK Athens at HT / Draw at FT 2.9% 3.5% — — 28.68
Volos NFC at HT / Draw at FT 2.5% 3.5% — — 28.70
Volos NFC at HT / AEK Athens at FT 2.5% 3.5% — — 28.70
Volos NFC at HT / Volos NFC at FT 2.4% 3.5% — — 28.70
Draw at HT / Volos NFC at FT 2.2% 3.5% — — 28.71
AEK Athens at HT / Volos NFC at FT 0.4% 3.5% — — 28.77
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AEK Athens to score last 77.5% 76.8% — — 1.30
Volos NFC to score last 16.8% 13.4% — — 7.46
No goal scored 5.7% 7.4% — — 13.51
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 94.3% 92.7% — — 1.08
AEK Athens to lead by 1 at any time 85.5% 90.9% — — 1.10
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 65.4% 69.3% — — 1.44
AEK Athens to lead by 2 at any time 62.5% 61.4% — — 1.63
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 38.2% 34.7% — — 2.89
AEK Athens to lead by 3 at any time 37.8% 34.6% — — 2.89
Volos NFC to lead by 1 at any time 18.6% 15.0% — — 6.69
Volos NFC to lead by 2 at any time 3.1% 1.6% — — 61.68
Volos NFC to lead by 3 at any time 0.4% 1.6% — — 64.30
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AEK Athens most corners 77.4% 74.3% — — 1.35
Volos NFC most corners 13.9% 10.4% — — 9.58
Corners level 8.8% 8.4% — — 11.97
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 85.1% 87.4% 88.5% 0.99× 1.14
2-6 goals 78.7% 78.7% 72.3% 1.09× 1.27
1-4 goals 74.4% 72.4% 80.1% 0.90× 1.38
2-5 goals 73.3% 72.4% 70.1% 1.03× 1.38
2-4 goals 62.6% 63.3% 61.7% 1.03× 1.58
1-3 goals 57.2% 59.1% 69.3% 0.85× 1.69
3-6 goals 55.8% 59.1% 47.5% 1.24× 1.69
3-5 goals 50.3% 53.2% 45.3% 1.17× 1.88
2-3 goals 45.3% 48.5% 50.8% 0.95× 2.06
3-4 goals 39.7% 39.2% 36.9% 1.06× 2.55
1-2 goals 34.8% 35.2% 43.4% 0.81× 2.84
4-6 goals 33.4% 35.2% 21.7% 1.62× 2.84
4-5 goals 27.9% 30.2% 19.5% 1.55× 3.31
5-6 goals 16.1% 18.8% 10.9% 1.73× 5.31
7+ goals 3.7% 2.6% 1.0% 2.50× 39.06
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AEK Athens never behind 75.7% 76.5% — — 1.31
Volos NFC never behind 8.8% 4.7% — — 21.07
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 47.6% 50.9% 53.7% 0.95× 1.96
Even number of goals 52.4% 49.1% 46.3% 1.06× 2.04
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 54.0% 51.6% — — 1.94
Odd goals in 1st half 46.0% 48.4% — — 2.07
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 52.2% 51.9% — — 1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half 47.8% 48.1% — — 2.08
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 goals 94.3% 92.3% 91.6% 1.01× 1.08
Under 5.5 goals 90.8% 92.3% 96.7% 0.95× 1.08
Over 1.5 goals 82.4% 82.3% 73.2% 1.13× 1.22
Under 4.5 goals 80.2% 82.3% 88.3% 0.93× 1.22
Under 3.5 goals 62.9% 61.7% 77.5% 0.80× 1.62
Over 2.5 goals 59.5% 58.6% 48.4% 1.21× 1.71
Under 2.5 goals 40.5% 41.4% 51.6% 0.80× 2.42
Over 3.5 goals 37.1% 38.3% 22.5% 1.70× 2.61
Over 4.5 goals 19.8% 17.7% 11.7% 1.52× 5.65
Under 1.5 goals 17.6% 17.7% 26.8% 0.66× 5.65
Over 5.5 goals 9.2% 7.7% 3.3% 2.36× 12.93
Under 0.5 goals 5.7% 7.7% 8.4% 0.92× 12.95
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 96.1% 97.2% 99.0% 0.98× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 89.7% 86.7% 96.4% 0.90× 1.15
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 77.2% 75.9% 64.3% 1.18× 1.32
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 76.0% 75.9% 86.9% 0.87× 1.32
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 52.2% 51.9% 69.6% 0.75× 1.93
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 47.8% 48.1% 30.4% 1.58× 2.08
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 24.0% 24.1% 13.1% 1.84× 4.14
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 22.8% 24.1% 35.7% 0.68× 4.15
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 10.3% 13.3% 3.6% 3.70× 7.54
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 3.9% 2.8% 1.0% 2.68× 35.54
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 85.5% 89.1% — — 1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half 72.8% 71.6% — — 1.40
Under 1.5 in 1st half 62.2% 63.2% — — 1.58
Over 1.5 in 1st half 37.8% 36.8% — — 2.72
Under 0.5 in 1st half 27.2% 28.4% — — 3.52
Over 2.5 in 1st half 14.5% 10.9% — — 9.18
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 82.6% 83.2% — — 1.20
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 73.8% 77.6% — — 1.29
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 53.3% 53.0% — — 1.89
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 46.7% 47.0% — — 2.13
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 26.2% 22.4% — — 4.47
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 17.4% 16.8% — — 5.97
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Volos NFC not to score in both halves 94.3% 90.8% — — 1.10
AEK Athens to score in both halves 50.5% 55.1% — — 1.81
AEK Athens not to score in both halves 49.5% 44.9% — — 2.23
Volos NFC to score in both halves 5.7% 9.2% — — 10.92
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Only AEK Athens scores 51.3% 53.8% 24.0% 2.25× 1.86
Both teams score 40.6% 46.5% 48.4% 0.96× 2.15
Neither team scores 5.7% 7.1% 8.4% 0.85× 14.05
Only Volos NFC scores 2.3% 4.6% 19.7% 0.23× 21.76
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 22.9% 22.6% 25.0% 0.90× 4.43
Exactly 3 goals 22.4% 22.6% 26.0% 0.87× 4.43
Exactly 4 goals 17.3% 17.5% 11.1% 1.58× 5.73
Exactly 1 goals 11.8% 12.1% 18.6% 0.65× 8.25
Exactly 5 goals 10.6% 12.1% 8.6% 1.41× 8.25
6 or more goals 9.2% 7.6% 3.3% 2.32× 13.13
Exactly 0 goals 5.7% 7.6% 8.4% 0.91× 13.14
Total goals 1st half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1 goal in 1st half 35.0% 35.9% — — 2.79
No goals in 1st half 27.2% 28.5% — — 3.51
2 goals in 1st half 23.3% 21.5% — — 4.66
3+ goals in 1st half 14.5% 10.8% — — 9.26
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 53.3% 51.2% — — 1.95
1 goal in 2nd half 29.3% 29.3% — — 3.42
No goals in 2nd half 17.4% 16.4% — — 6.09
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Volos NFC not to win both halves 99.4% 97.3% — — 1.03
AEK Athens not to win both halves 61.9% 68.6% — — 1.46
AEK Athens to win both halves 38.1% 31.4% — — 3.18
Volos NFC to win both halves 0.6% 2.7% — — 36.55
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Volos NFC to win neither half 85.1% 91.5% — — 1.09
AEK Athens to win either half 85.0% 83.9% — — 1.19
AEK Athens to win neither half 15.0% 16.1% — — 6.22
Volos NFC to win either half 14.9% 8.5% — — 11.77
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Volos NFC not to win to nil 97.7% 96.2% 80.3% 1.20× 1.04
AEK Athens to win to nil 51.3% 53.7% 24.0% 2.24× 1.86
AEK Athens not to win to nil 48.7% 46.3% 76.0% 0.61× 2.16
Volos NFC to win to nil 2.3% 3.8% 19.7% 0.19× 26.20
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AEK Athens by 3+ 35.3% 34.6% 10.7% 3.25× 2.89
AEK Athens by 2 22.8% 24.1% 10.7% 2.26× 4.15
AEK Athens by 1 20.8% 24.1% 20.5% 1.18× 4.15
Draw 16.1% 17.0% 25.0% 0.68× 5.87
Volos NFC by 1 3.7% 2.7% 20.1% 0.14× 36.79
Volos NFC by 2 1.1% 2.7% 8.4% 0.32× 36.87
Volos NFC by 3+ 0.2% 2.7% 5.7% 0.47× 36.90
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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