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AGF v Sønderjyske Fodbold — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Monday 12 October 2026 · DEN-Superliga · 2627

DEN-Superliga results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
AGF win
62.7%
model 64.9%
Draw
23.8%
model 20.6%
Sønderjyske Fodbold win
13.5%
model 14.5%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (1,523 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 2-0 10.6%
  2. 2-1 9.9%
  3. 1-1 9.7%
  4. 1-0 9.2%
  5. 3-0 7.6%

Goals

Over 2.559.9% Under 2.540.1%
BTTS yes54.3% BTTS no45.7%
AGF 1+88.5% AGF 2+63.7%
Sønderjyske Fodbold 1+60.7% Sønderjyske Fodbold 2+24.0%

Expected goals 2.17 – 0.93. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
80/100
Data quality
65/100
Model agreement
99%
★ Best pick
Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.
★ Most likely to land
Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.

Positive factors

  • AGF carry the stronger rating, 1605 Elo against 1447.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

AGF have an estimated 62.7% win probability, against 23.8% for the draw and 13.5% for Sønderjyske Fodbold. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.17 for AGF and 0.93 for Sønderjyske Fodbold.

Why AGF

AGF carry the stronger rating, 1605 Elo against 1447.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 23.8%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Sønderjyske Fodbold can win

Nothing in the data singles out Sønderjyske Fodbold.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for AGF, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Sønderjyske Fodbold, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

AGF: 59% possession, 19.2 shots a match, 12.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Sønderjyske Fodbold: 39% possession, 9.8 shots a match, 20.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. AGF's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 22:20 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

AGF are the model's most likely outcome at 62.7%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-0 at 10.6%. Confidence 80/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
dc-xg 2.25–1.04 2-1 10% 64% 58%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AGF to win 64.2% 58.2% 44.9% 1.30× 1.72
Draw 20.2% 24.4% 25.3% 0.96× 4.09
Sønderjyske Fodbold to win 15.6% 19.3% 30.0% 0.64× 5.18
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AGF & both teams score 33.0% 29.7% 24.5% 1.21× 3.37
AGF & not both score 31.2% 29.7% 20.7% 1.44× 3.37
Draw & both teams score 15.9% 17.9% 19.6% 0.92× 5.58
Sønderjyske Fodbold & both teams score 9.4% 8.4% 16.8% 0.50× 11.93
Sønderjyske Fodbold & not both score 6.2% 8.4% 13.5% 0.62× 11.94
Draw & not both score 4.3% 4.9% 6.1% 0.80× 20.56
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AGF & over 1.5 56.3% 54.9% 35.5% 1.54× 1.82
AGF & over 2.5 46.8% 45.2% 29.5% 1.53× 2.21
AGF & under 3.5 34.3% 30.9% 27.3% 1.13× 3.24
AGF & over 3.5 29.9% 26.0% 17.9% 1.45× 3.84
AGF & under 2.5 17.4% 18.0% 15.7% 1.15× 5.56
Draw & over 1.5 15.9% 18.0% 19.6% 0.92× 5.56
Draw & under 2.5 13.6% 12.9% 16.8% 0.77× 7.77
Draw & under 3.5 13.6% 12.9% 16.8% 0.77× 7.77
Sønderjyske Fodbold & over 1.5 12.3% 12.9% 26.2% 0.49× 7.77
Sønderjyske Fodbold & under 3.5 10.5% 12.9% 18.5% 0.70× 7.77
Sønderjyske Fodbold & over 2.5 10.3% 12.9% 20.9% 0.61× 7.77
AGF & under 1.5 7.9% 7.9% 9.6% 0.82× 12.70
Draw & over 2.5 6.6% 7.9% 8.8% 0.89× 12.70
Draw & over 3.5 6.6% 7.9% 8.8% 0.89× 12.70
Sønderjyske Fodbold & under 2.5 5.3% 7.9% 9.4% 0.84× 12.70
Sønderjyske Fodbold & over 3.5 5.1% 7.9% 11.8% 0.66× 12.70
Draw & under 1.5 4.3% 4.8% 6.1% 0.79× 20.94
Sønderjyske Fodbold & under 1.5 3.3% 4.8% 4.1% 1.16× 20.94
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AGF (1UP) 76.7% 78.7% 1.27
Sønderjyske Fodbold (1UP) 35.2% 34.1% 2.93
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AGF (2UP) 64.2% 68.0% 1.47
Sønderjyske Fodbold (2UP) 15.6% 17.2% 5.81
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AGF to win 2nd half 52.4% 52.3% 1.91
2nd half drawn 29.8% 26.5% 3.78
Sønderjyske Fodbold to win 2nd half 17.9% 19.1% 5.25
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AGF (+0.5) 84.4% 82.4% 70.0% 1.18× 1.21
Sønderjyske Fodbold (+2.5) 77.5% 78.4% 91.7% 0.86× 1.28
AGF (-0.5) 64.2% 62.9% 44.9% 1.40× 1.59
Sønderjyske Fodbold (+1.5) 58.1% 57.0% 78.8% 0.72× 1.75
AGF (-1.5) 41.9% 43.0% 21.2% 2.03× 2.33
Sønderjyske Fodbold (+0.5) 35.8% 37.1% 55.1% 0.67× 2.70
AGF (-2.5) 22.5% 21.6% 8.3% 2.61× 4.64
Sønderjyske Fodbold (-0.5) 15.6% 17.6% 30.0% 0.59× 5.69
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sønderjyske Fodbold to concede 89.4% 86.5% 80.7% 1.07× 1.16
Sønderjyske Fodbold clean sheet 10.6% 13.5% 19.3% 0.70× 7.41
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sønderjyske Fodbold to concede in 1st half 62.0% 64.8% 1.54
Sønderjyske Fodbold clean sheet in 1st half 38.0% 35.2% 2.84
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sønderjyske Fodbold under 6.5 corners 92.3% 90.0% 1.11
Sønderjyske Fodbold under 5.5 corners 85.6% 85.2% 1.17
Sønderjyske Fodbold under 4.5 corners 74.9% 71.6% 1.40
Sønderjyske Fodbold over 2.5 corners 60.0% 57.1% 1.75
Sønderjyske Fodbold under 3.5 corners 59.3% 57.1% 1.75
Sønderjyske Fodbold over 3.5 corners 40.7% 42.9% 2.33
Sønderjyske Fodbold under 2.5 corners 40.0% 42.9% 2.33
Sønderjyske Fodbold over 4.5 corners 25.1% 28.4% 3.52
Sønderjyske Fodbold over 5.5 corners 14.4% 14.8% 6.75
Sønderjyske Fodbold over 6.5 corners 7.7% 10.0% 9.99
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sønderjyske Fodbold under 3.5 goals 97.9% 97.5% 93.7% 1.04× 1.03
Sønderjyske Fodbold under 2.5 goals 91.3% 92.3% 84.0% 1.10× 1.08
Sønderjyske Fodbold under 1.5 goals 72.3% 72.0% 57.9% 1.24× 1.39
Sønderjyske Fodbold over 0.5 goals 64.5% 63.0% 73.6% 0.86× 1.59
Sønderjyske Fodbold under 0.5 goals 35.5% 37.0% 26.4% 1.40× 2.70
Sønderjyske Fodbold over 1.5 goals 27.7% 28.0% 42.1% 0.67× 3.57
Sønderjyske Fodbold over 2.5 goals 8.7% 7.7% 16.0% 0.48× 13.03
Sønderjyske Fodbold over 3.5 goals 2.1% 2.5% 6.3% 0.39× 40.77
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sønderjyske Fodbold under 1.5 in 1st half 93.5% 94.2% 1.06
Sønderjyske Fodbold under 0.5 in 1st half 66.1% 68.4% 1.46
Sønderjyske Fodbold over 0.5 in 1st half 33.9% 31.6% 3.17
Sønderjyske Fodbold over 1.5 in 1st half 6.5% 5.8% 17.29
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AGF (away no bet) 76.1% 73.6% 63.9% 1.15× 1.36
Draw (away no bet) 23.9% 26.4% 36.1% 0.73× 3.79
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sønderjyske Fodbold even goals 56.3% 56.9% 57.6% 0.99× 1.76
Sønderjyske Fodbold odd goals 43.7% 43.1% 42.4% 1.02× 2.32
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 77.2% 82.0% 1.22
Both halves over 1.5 goals 22.8% 18.0% 5.56
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 74.4% 67.5% 1.48
Both halves under 1.5 goals 25.6% 32.5% 3.07
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 68.0% 62.2% 1.61
AGF to score 2+ in a row 57.6% 55.2% 1.81
Either team to score 3+ in a row 32.1% 29.1% 3.44
AGF to score 3+ in a row 28.7% 25.1% 3.99
Sønderjyske Fodbold to score 2+ in a row 18.0% 16.3% 6.13
Sønderjyske Fodbold to score 3+ in a row 3.8% 2.6% 38.29
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AGF corners (+3.5) 97.4% 95.8% 1.04
AGF corners (+2.5) 95.3% 95.8% 1.04
AGF corners (+1.5) 92.0% 89.5% 1.12
AGF corners (-1.5) 71.9% 70.8% 1.41
AGF corners (-2.5) 62.3% 61.9% 1.62
AGF corners (-3.5) 52.2% 52.5% 1.91
Sønderjyske Fodbold corners (+3.5) 47.8% 47.5% 2.10
Sønderjyske Fodbold corners (+2.5) 37.7% 38.1% 2.62
Sønderjyske Fodbold corners (+1.5) 28.1% 29.3% 3.42
Sønderjyske Fodbold corners (-1.5) 8.0% 10.5% 9.57
Sønderjyske Fodbold corners (-2.5) 4.7% 4.2% 23.61
Sønderjyske Fodbold corners (-3.5) 2.6% 4.2% 23.67
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
12+ corners 37.4% 33.9% 2.95
0-8 corners 33.7% 33.3% 3.01
9-11 corners 28.9% 31.2% 3.20
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 7.5 corners 75.6% 76.5% 1.31
Under 12.5 corners 70.8% 72.6% 1.38
Over 8.5 corners 66.3% 67.7% 1.48
Under 11.5 corners 62.6% 63.3% 1.58
Over 9.5 corners 56.4% 57.9% 1.73
Under 10.5 corners 53.4% 53.2% 1.88
Over 10.5 corners 46.6% 46.8% 2.14
Under 9.5 corners 43.6% 42.1% 2.38
Over 11.5 corners 37.4% 36.7% 2.72
Under 8.5 corners 33.7% 32.3% 3.10
Over 12.5 corners 29.2% 27.4% 3.64
Under 7.5 corners 24.4% 23.5% 4.26
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.9% 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 9.3% 7.4% 11.0% 0.67× 13.48
2-0 9.5% 7.4% 6.3% 1.17× 13.48
2-1 9.8% 7.4% 10.2% 0.73× 13.48
1-0 7.9% 7.4% 9.6% 0.77× 13.48
3-0 7.1% 7.4% 1.9% 3.85× 13.48
3-1 7.4% 7.4% 5.2% 1.42× 13.48
Any other score 8.1% 7.4% 5.2% 1.42× 13.48
2-2 5.1% 7.4% 6.6% 1.12× 13.48
0-0 4.3% 1.7% 6.1% 0.28× 58.46
0-1 3.3% 1.7% 4.1% 0.41× 58.47
0-2 2.0% 1.7% 5.5% 0.31× 58.48
0-3 0.7% 1.7% 1.9% 0.89× 58.49
0-4 0.2% 1.7% 2.5% 0.69× 58.49
1-2 4.5% 1.7% 7.7% 0.22× 58.46
1-3 1.6% 1.7% 2.8% 0.62× 58.48
1-4 0.4% 1.7% 2.8% 0.62× 58.49
2-3 1.8% 1.7% 3.3% 0.52× 58.48
2-4 0.5% 1.7% 0.6% 3.10× 58.49
3-2 3.8% 1.7% 4.4% 0.39× 58.47
3-3 1.3% 1.7% 2.5% 0.69× 58.48
3-4 0.3% 1.7% 0.3% 6.21× 58.49
4-0 4.0% 1.7% 1.9% 0.89× 58.47
4-1 4.1% 1.7% 1.1% 1.55× 58.47
4-2 2.1% 1.7% 2.2% 0.78× 58.48
4-3 0.7% 1.7% 0.6% 3.10× 58.49
4-4 0.2% 1.7% 0.3% 6.21× 58.49
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AGF leading at HT (DNB) 75.8% 77.4% 1.29
Sønderjyske Fodbold leading at HT (DNB) 24.2% 22.6% 4.43
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AGF or draw (1X) 84.4% 80.7% 70.0% 1.15× 1.24
AGF or Sønderjyske Fodbold (12) 79.8% 75.6% 74.7% 1.01× 1.32
Sønderjyske Fodbold or draw (X2) 35.8% 41.8% 55.1% 0.76× 2.39
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AGF or draw at HT 84.6% 84.6% 1.18
AGF or Sønderjyske Fodbold at HT 63.6% 62.0% 1.61
Sønderjyske Fodbold or draw at HT 51.8% 47.6% 2.10
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AGF or draw (1UP) 84.4% 88.7% 1.13
Sønderjyske Fodbold or draw (1UP) 35.8% 42.1% 2.38
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AGF or draw in 2nd half 82.2% 80.9% 1.24
AGF or Sønderjyske Fodbold in 2nd half 70.2% 73.5% 1.36
Sønderjyske Fodbold or draw in 2nd half 47.6% 47.7% 2.10
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 54.7% 50.1% 2.00
Neither half drawn 45.3% 49.9% 2.00
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AGF (DNB) 80.4% 80.4% 59.9% 1.34× 1.24
Sønderjyske Fodbold (DNB) 19.6% 19.6% 40.1% 0.49× 5.11
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AGF to score first 65.5% 69.1% 1.45
Sønderjyske Fodbold to score first 30.2% 27.0% 3.71
No goal scored 4.3% 4.3% 23.24
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 58.2% 54.9% 60.3% 0.91× 1.82
Not both teams to score 41.8% 45.1% 39.7% 1.14× 2.22
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 48.9% 44.3% 49.6% 0.89× 2.26
Not both score & under 2.5 27.0% 33.6% 30.6% 1.10× 2.98
Not both score & over 2.5 14.8% 12.3% 9.4% 1.32× 8.10
Both score & under 2.5 9.3% 8.4% 11.0% 0.76× 11.95
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 81.8% 83.1% 80.4% 1.03× 1.20
Both teams to score 2+ 18.2% 16.9% 19.6% 0.87× 5.90
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 66.4% 67.5% 1.48
Both teams to score in 2nd half 33.6% 32.5% 3.08
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 52.3% 55.9% 1.79
Both score 2nd half only 26.6% 26.6% 3.76
Both score 1st half only 14.1% 10.8% 9.30
Both score in both halves 7.0% 6.8% 14.79
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 78.9% 81.5% 1.23
Both teams to score by HT 21.1% 18.5% 5.40
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 64.0% 58.9% 1.70
A half without a goal 36.0% 41.2% 2.43
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 42.9% 42.1% 43.0% 0.98× 2.38
4-6 goals 36.6% 35.1% 36.4% 0.96× 2.85
0-1 goals 15.5% 20.2% 19.3% 1.05× 4.96
7+ goals 4.9% 1.8% 1.9% 0.96× 54.29
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sønderjyske Fodbold to score exactly 1 36.8% 36.0% 31.7% 1.14× 2.78
Sønderjyske Fodbold to score exactly 0 35.5% 36.0% 26.4% 1.36× 2.78
Sønderjyske Fodbold to score exactly 2 19.0% 19.6% 26.4% 0.74× 5.11
Sønderjyske Fodbold to score 3+ 8.7% 8.5% 16.0% 0.53× 11.81
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AGF to score 3+ 39.0% 35.6% 21.8% 1.64× 2.81
AGF to score exactly 2 26.7% 26.5% 25.9% 1.02× 3.77
AGF to score exactly 1 23.7% 23.2% 33.6% 0.69× 4.30
AGF to score exactly 0 10.6% 14.3% 19.3% 0.74× 6.99
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AGF leading at HT 48.2% 52.4% 1.91
Draw at HT 36.4% 38.0% 2.64
Sønderjyske Fodbold leading at HT 15.4% 15.4% 6.48
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AGF -1: 1 41.9% 42.8% 2.34
AGF -1: 2 35.8% 37.2% 2.69
AGF -1: X 22.3% 23.6% 4.24
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AGF (0:1) 41.9% 42.7% 21.2% 2.01× 2.34
Sønderjyske Fodbold (0:1) 35.8% 37.2% 55.1% 0.68× 2.69
Draw (0:1) 22.3% 24.3% 24.0% 1.01× 4.12
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sønderjyske Fodbold (0:2) 58.1% 62.8% 78.8% 0.80× 1.59
AGF (0:2) 22.5% 20.3% 8.3% 2.46× 4.92
Draw (0:2) 19.3% 15.3% 13.2% 1.16× 6.54
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sønderjyske Fodbold (0:3) 77.5% 80.5% 91.7% 0.88× 1.24
Draw (0:3) 12.3% 10.0% 3.6% 2.79× 10.00
AGF (0:3) 10.2% 10.0% 5.0% 2.01× 10.03
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sønderjyske Fodbold (0:4) 89.8% 92.1% 95.0% 0.97× 1.09
Draw (0:4) 6.3% 4.6% 3.3% 1.40× 21.58
AGF (0:4) 3.9% 1.2% 1.9% 0.62× 83.29
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AGF (1:0) 84.4% 81.5% 70.0% 1.16× 1.23
Draw (1:0) 10.0% 6.9% 14.6% 0.48× 14.40
Sønderjyske Fodbold (1:0) 5.6% 6.9% 15.7% 0.44× 14.47
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AGF (2:0) 94.4% 94.0% 84.3% 1.11× 1.06
Draw (2:0) 4.1% 2.3% 8.3% 0.27× 44.13
Sønderjyske Fodbold (2:0) 1.5% 2.3% 7.7% 0.29× 44.29
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 49.3% 48.2% 2.07
1st half highest scoring 27.6% 26.5% 3.77
Halves equal 23.1% 24.1% 4.15
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AGF to concede 64.5% 63.5% 73.6% 0.86× 1.58
AGF clean sheet 35.5% 36.5% 26.4% 1.38× 2.74
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AGF clean sheet in 1st half 66.1% 68.7% 1.46
AGF to concede in 1st half 33.9% 31.3% 3.20
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AGF over 2.5 corners 93.4% 89.3% 1.12
AGF over 3.5 corners 86.4% 86.3% 1.16
AGF over 4.5 corners 76.8% 76.6% 1.31
AGF over 5.5 corners 65.5% 66.7% 1.50
AGF over 6.5 corners 53.8% 52.6% 1.90
AGF under 6.5 corners 46.2% 47.4% 2.11
AGF under 5.5 corners 34.5% 33.3% 3.01
AGF under 4.5 corners 23.2% 23.4% 4.27
AGF under 3.5 corners 13.7% 13.7% 7.30
AGF under 2.5 corners 6.6% 10.7% 9.36
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AGF over 0.5 goals 89.4% 87.3% 80.7% 1.08× 1.15
AGF under 3.5 goals 81.0% 82.1% 91.2% 0.90× 1.22
AGF over 1.5 goals 65.7% 67.9% 47.4% 1.43× 1.47
AGF under 2.5 goals 61.0% 63.5% 78.2% 0.81× 1.58
AGF over 2.5 goals 39.0% 36.5% 21.8% 1.68× 2.74
AGF under 1.5 goals 34.3% 32.1% 52.6% 0.61× 3.11
AGF over 3.5 goals 19.0% 17.9% 8.8% 2.03× 5.59
AGF under 0.5 goals 10.6% 12.7% 19.3% 0.66× 7.86
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AGF under 1.5 in 1st half 74.8% 80.2% 1.25
AGF over 0.5 in 1st half 62.0% 64.6% 1.55
AGF under 0.5 in 1st half 38.0% 35.4% 2.82
AGF over 1.5 in 1st half 25.2% 19.8% 5.04
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw (home no bet) 56.4% 56.7% 45.8% 1.24× 1.76
Sønderjyske Fodbold (home no bet) 43.6% 43.3% 54.2% 0.80× 2.31
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AGF even goals 50.6% 50.6% 50.4% 1.00× 1.98
AGF odd goals 49.4% 49.4% 49.6% 1.00× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 25.2% 28.8% 3.48
HT 1-0 24.2% 24.2% 4.13
HT 2-0 11.8% 10.9% 9.16
HT 0-1 10.3% 10.9% 9.18
HT 1-1 10.2% 10.9% 9.18
Any other HT score 8.2% 7.1% 14.01
HT 2-1 4.9% 2.3% 43.35
HT 0-2 2.2% 2.3% 43.55
HT 1-2 2.1% 2.3% 43.55
HT 2-2 1.0% 2.3% 43.63
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AGF at HT / AGF at FT 42.1% 43.1% 2.32
Draw at HT / AGF at FT 18.7% 16.8% 5.96
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 11.5% 12.7% 7.90
Sønderjyske Fodbold at HT / Sønderjyske Fodbold at FT 7.9% 6.0% 16.65
Draw at HT / Sønderjyske Fodbold at FT 6.2% 6.0% 16.70
AGF at HT / Draw at FT 4.7% 3.5% 28.74
Sønderjyske Fodbold at HT / Draw at FT 4.1% 3.5% 28.76
Sønderjyske Fodbold at HT / AGF at FT 3.4% 3.5% 28.79
AGF at HT / Sønderjyske Fodbold at FT 1.5% 3.5% 28.86
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AGF to score last 65.6% 70.0% 1.43
Sønderjyske Fodbold to score last 30.1% 32.7% 3.06
No goal scored 4.3% 4.3% 23.24
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 95.7% 95.6% 1.05
AGF to lead by 1 at any time 76.7% 78.1% 1.28
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 59.2% 55.1% 1.81
AGF to lead by 2 at any time 49.2% 44.0% 2.27
Sønderjyske Fodbold to lead by 1 at any time 35.2% 34.8% 2.88
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 28.6% 25.5% 3.92
AGF to lead by 3 at any time 26.1% 25.4% 3.93
Sønderjyske Fodbold to lead by 2 at any time 10.4% 10.4% 9.60
Sønderjyske Fodbold to lead by 3 at any time 2.5% 1.6% 61.86
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AGF most corners 80.3% 81.4% 1.23
Sønderjyske Fodbold most corners 13.0% 10.4% 9.59
Corners level 6.7% 8.4% 11.91
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 84.2% 83.5% 85.4% 0.98× 1.20
2-6 goals 79.5% 78.6% 79.1% 0.99× 1.27
2-5 goals 73.0% 72.4% 72.2% 1.00× 1.38
1-4 goals 72.3% 72.4% 73.8% 0.98× 1.38
2-4 goals 61.1% 63.4% 60.6% 1.05× 1.58
3-6 goals 58.8% 59.2% 57.0% 1.04× 1.69
1-3 goals 54.1% 53.2% 56.2% 0.95× 1.88
3-5 goals 52.2% 53.2% 50.1% 1.06× 1.88
2-3 goals 42.9% 43.6% 43.0% 1.01× 2.30
3-4 goals 40.3% 43.6% 38.6% 1.13× 2.30
4-6 goals 36.6% 39.1% 36.4% 1.08× 2.56
1-2 goals 32.0% 35.4% 35.5% 1.00× 2.83
4-5 goals 30.1% 35.4% 29.5% 1.20× 2.83
5-6 goals 18.5% 18.6% 18.7% 1.00× 5.36
7+ goals 4.9% 2.6% 1.9% 1.33× 39.12
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AGF never behind 60.5% 67.2% 1.49
Sønderjyske Fodbold never behind 19.0% 18.8% 5.31
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 48.8% 50.8% 47.1% 1.08× 1.97
Even number of goals 51.2% 49.2% 52.9% 0.93× 2.03
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 53.4% 51.7% 1.94
Odd goals in 1st half 46.6% 48.3% 2.07
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 51.5% 52.0% 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 48.5% 48.0% 2.08
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 goals 95.7% 95.5% 93.9% 1.02× 1.05
Under 5.5 goals 88.5% 87.7% 91.2% 0.96× 1.14
Over 1.5 goals 84.5% 82.4% 80.7% 1.02× 1.21
Under 4.5 goals 76.6% 77.3% 79.6% 0.97× 1.29
Over 2.5 goals 63.7% 61.8% 58.7% 1.05× 1.62
Under 3.5 goals 58.4% 58.8% 62.0% 0.95× 1.70
Over 3.5 goals 41.6% 41.2% 38.0% 1.08× 2.43
Under 2.5 goals 36.3% 38.2% 41.3% 0.93× 2.62
Over 4.5 goals 23.4% 22.7% 20.4% 1.11× 4.41
Under 1.5 goals 15.5% 17.6% 19.3% 0.91× 5.68
Over 5.5 goals 11.5% 12.3% 8.8% 1.40× 8.10
Under 0.5 goals 4.3% 4.5% 6.1% 0.74× 22.20
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 94.7% 92.5% 97.9% 0.94× 1.08
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 87.0% 86.7% 90.0% 0.96× 1.15
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 80.4% 81.1% 75.3% 1.08× 1.23
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 71.4% 72.6% 75.3% 0.96× 1.38
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 53.4% 51.8% 47.9% 1.08× 1.93
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 46.6% 48.2% 52.1% 0.93× 2.08
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 28.6% 27.4% 24.7% 1.11× 3.64
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 19.6% 19.0% 24.7% 0.77× 5.28
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 13.0% 13.3% 10.0% 1.33× 7.54
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 5.3% 7.5% 2.1% 3.63× 13.29
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 83.8% 86.3% 1.16
Over 0.5 in 1st half 74.8% 71.3% 1.40
Under 1.5 in 1st half 59.7% 62.8% 1.59
Over 1.5 in 1st half 40.3% 37.2% 2.69
Under 0.5 in 1st half 25.2% 28.7% 3.49
Over 2.5 in 1st half 16.2% 13.7% 7.31
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 84.9% 82.8% 1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 70.3% 77.6% 1.29
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 56.9% 54.7% 1.83
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 43.1% 45.3% 2.21
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 29.7% 22.4% 4.46
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 15.1% 17.2% 5.82
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sønderjyske Fodbold not to score in both halves 84.3% 84.4% 1.18
AGF not to score in both halves 55.2% 57.3% 1.74
AGF to score in both halves 44.8% 42.7% 2.34
Sønderjyske Fodbold to score in both halves 15.7% 15.6% 6.43
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 58.2% 58.4% 60.3% 0.97× 1.71
Only AGF scores 31.2% 33.3% 20.7% 1.61× 3.00
Only Sønderjyske Fodbold scores 6.2% 7.2% 13.5% 0.53× 13.92
Neither team scores 4.3% 4.6% 6.1% 0.76× 21.81
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 3 goals 22.1% 22.6% 20.9% 1.08× 4.42
Exactly 2 goals 20.8% 22.6% 22.3% 1.01× 4.42
Exactly 4 goals 18.2% 17.4% 17.9% 0.97× 5.74
Exactly 5 goals 11.9% 12.1% 11.8% 1.02× 8.27
6 or more goals 11.5% 12.1% 8.8% 1.37× 8.27
Exactly 1 goals 11.2% 12.1% 13.5% 0.90× 8.27
Exactly 0 goals 4.3% 4.4% 6.1% 0.73× 22.66
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 56.9% 53.3% 1.88
1 goal in 2nd half 28.0% 29.8% 3.36
No goals in 2nd half 15.1% 17.1% 5.84
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sønderjyske Fodbold not to win both halves 97.2% 97.2% 1.03
AGF not to win both halves 74.6% 73.1% 1.37
AGF to win both halves 25.4% 26.9% 3.71
Sønderjyske Fodbold to win both halves 2.8% 2.8% 36.08
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AGF to win either half 75.2% 79.5% 1.26
Sønderjyske Fodbold to win neither half 69.6% 68.1% 1.47
Sønderjyske Fodbold to win either half 30.4% 31.9% 3.14
AGF to win neither half 24.8% 20.5% 4.87
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sønderjyske Fodbold not to win to nil 93.8% 92.1% 86.5% 1.06× 1.09
AGF not to win to nil 68.8% 69.7% 79.3% 0.88× 1.44
AGF to win to nil 31.2% 30.3% 20.7% 1.47× 3.30
Sønderjyske Fodbold to win to nil 6.2% 7.9% 13.5% 0.59× 12.59
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AGF by 1 22.3% 24.2% 24.0% 1.01× 4.14
AGF by 3+ 22.5% 24.2% 8.3% 2.92× 4.14
Draw 20.2% 24.1% 25.3% 0.95× 4.14
AGF by 2 19.3% 16.9% 13.2% 1.28× 5.91
Sønderjyske Fodbold by 1 10.0% 7.3% 14.6% 0.50× 13.78
Sønderjyske Fodbold by 2 4.1% 2.7% 8.3% 0.33× 36.96
Sønderjyske Fodbold by 3+ 1.5% 2.7% 7.7% 0.35× 37.05
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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