Águilas Doradas v Independiente Medellín — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 8 November 2026 · COL-Primera A · 2627

COL-Primera A results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Águilas Doradas

20:30 UTC

Independiente Medellín

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 27 Oct, 10:57 · 298h before kick-off

Águilas Doradas win

36.6%

model 35.3%

Draw

26.7%

model 27.4%

Independiente Medellín win

36.7%

model 37.3%

372737

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (648 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 13.0%
1-2 8.5%
2-1 8.2%
0-1 7.8%
1-0 7.6%

Goals

Over 2.5	52.3%	Under 2.5	47.7%
BTTS yes	57.1%	BTTS no	42.9%
Águilas Doradas 1+	74.4%	Águilas Doradas 2+	39.5%
Independiente Medellín 1+	75.5%	Independiente Medellín 2+	41.0%

Expected goals 1.36 – 1.41. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

85/100

Data quality

75/100

Model agreement

99%

★ Best pick

Independiente Medellín (DNB)

Draw no bet · usually 35%

53.1% fair odds 1.88

strong signal · 332 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Independiente Medellín (0:2)

Handicap 0:2 · usually 80%

83.7% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 504 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Independiente Medellín carry the stronger rating, 1609 Elo against 1523.
Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Independiente Medellín have an estimated 36.7% win probability, against 36.6% for Águilas Doradas and 26.7% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.36 for Águilas Doradas and 1.41 for Independiente Medellín.

Why Águilas Doradas

Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 26.7%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.36 to 1.41. Draws run at 29% in this competition.

Why Independiente Medellín can win

Independiente Medellín carry the stronger rating, 1609 Elo against 1523. Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Águilas Doradas, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Independiente Medellín, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Águilas Doradas: 65% possession, 13.8 shots a match, 7.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Independiente Medellín: 53% possession, 16.0 shots a match, 11.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-27 10:01 · team_stats 2026-10-27 06:03 · availability 2026-10-27 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Independiente Medellín are the model's most likely outcome at 36.7%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 13.0%. Confidence 85/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	352737	1.36–1.41	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	342739	1.34–1.45	1-1 13%	53%	57%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente Medellín to win	38.8%	36.4%	24.8%	1.47×	2.75
Águilas Doradas to win	33.9%	30.4%	45.8%	0.66×	3.29
Draw	27.3%	27.9%	29.5%	0.95×	3.58

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw & both teams score	20.1%	21.8%	18.8%	1.16×	4.59
Independiente Medellín & both teams score	19.7%	18.0%	11.5%	1.56×	5.56
Independiente Medellín & not both score	19.1%	18.0%	13.4%	1.34×	5.56
Águilas Doradas & both teams score	17.5%	18.0%	18.8%	0.95×	5.56
Águilas Doradas & not both score	16.4%	18.0%	27.1%	0.66×	5.57
Draw & not both score	7.1%	8.3%	10.8%	0.77×	12.00

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente Medellín & over 1.5	30.8%	30.7%	16.5%	1.87×	3.25
Águilas Doradas & over 1.5	26.6%	26.1%	33.8%	0.77×	3.84
Independiente Medellín & under 3.5	26.2%	26.1%	19.9%	1.31×	3.84
Independiente Medellín & over 2.5	24.4%	21.6%	12.9%	1.68×	4.63
Águilas Doradas & under 3.5	23.3%	21.6%	35.7%	0.60×	4.63
Águilas Doradas & over 2.5	21.1%	21.6%	25.5%	0.85×	4.63
Draw & over 1.5	20.1%	21.6%	18.8%	1.15×	4.63
Draw & under 2.5	20.1%	21.6%	23.7%	0.91×	4.63
Draw & under 3.5	20.1%	21.6%	23.7%	0.91×	4.63
Independiente Medellín & under 2.5	14.4%	12.8%	12.1%	1.07×	7.79
Águilas Doradas & under 2.5	12.8%	12.8%	20.5%	0.63×	7.79
Independiente Medellín & over 3.5	12.6%	12.8%	5.0%	2.57×	7.79
Águilas Doradas & over 3.5	10.6%	12.8%	10.2%	1.25×	7.79
Águilas Doradas & under 1.5	7.3%	7.9%	12.2%	0.65×	12.63
Independiente Medellín & under 1.5	8.0%	7.9%	8.4%	0.94×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	7.1%	7.9%	10.8%	0.73×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	7.2%	7.9%	6.0%	1.33×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	7.2%	7.9%	6.0%	1.33×	12.63

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente Medellín (1UP)	56.1%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Águilas Doradas (1UP)	51.9%	52.3%	—	—	1.91

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente Medellín (2UP)	38.8%	37.4%	—	—	2.67
Águilas Doradas (2UP)	33.9%	30.4%	—	—	3.29

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	35.5%	36.4%	—	—	2.75
Independiente Medellín to win 2nd half	35.2%	36.4%	—	—	2.75
Águilas Doradas to win 2nd half	29.3%	26.2%	—	—	3.82

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente Medellín under 1.5 in 2nd half	78.4%	79.4%	—	—	1.26
Independiente Medellín over 0.5 in 2nd half	58.0%	54.5%	—	—	1.84
Independiente Medellín under 0.5 in 2nd half	42.0%	45.5%	—	—	2.20
Independiente Medellín over 1.5 in 2nd half	21.6%	20.6%	—	—	4.85

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Águilas Doradas under 1.5 in 2nd half	82.2%	82.3%	—	—	1.22
Águilas Doradas over 0.5 in 2nd half	53.4%	54.9%	—	—	1.82
Águilas Doradas under 0.5 in 2nd half	46.6%	45.1%	—	—	2.22
Águilas Doradas over 1.5 in 2nd half	17.8%	17.7%	—	—	5.66

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente Medellín (+2.5)	94.5%	92.1%	91.8%	1.00×	1.09
Independiente Medellín (+1.5)	84.4%	82.6%	79.6%	1.04×	1.21
Independiente Medellín (+0.5)	66.1%	68.7%	54.2%	1.27×	1.46
Águilas Doradas (+0.5)	61.2%	62.9%	75.2%	0.84×	1.59
Independiente Medellín (-0.5)	38.8%	37.1%	24.8%	1.49×	2.70
Águilas Doradas (-0.5)	33.9%	31.3%	45.8%	0.68×	3.19
Águilas Doradas (-1.5)	15.6%	17.4%	20.4%	0.86×	5.74
Águilas Doradas (-2.5)	5.5%	7.9%	8.2%	0.96×	12.72

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente Medellín to concede	73.8%	76.7%	75.9%	1.01×	1.30
Independiente Medellín clean sheet	26.2%	23.3%	24.1%	0.97×	4.29

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente Medellín clean sheet in 1st half	56.2%	56.5%	—	—	1.77
Independiente Medellín to concede in 1st half	43.8%	43.5%	—	—	2.30

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente Medellín to concede in 2nd half	53.4%	54.4%	—	—	1.84
Independiente Medellín clean sheet in 2nd half	46.6%	45.6%	—	—	2.19

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente Medellín under 6.5 corners	83.2%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Independiente Medellín under 5.5 corners	73.6%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Independiente Medellín over 2.5 corners	71.7%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Independiente Medellín under 4.5 corners	60.8%	61.7%	—	—	1.62
Independiente Medellín over 3.5 corners	54.9%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Independiente Medellín under 3.5 corners	45.1%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Independiente Medellín over 4.5 corners	39.2%	38.3%	—	—	2.61
Independiente Medellín under 2.5 corners	28.3%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Independiente Medellín over 5.5 corners	26.4%	28.4%	—	—	3.53
Independiente Medellín over 6.5 corners	16.8%	18.6%	—	—	5.38

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente Medellín under 3.5 goals	94.1%	92.4%	98.1%	0.94×	1.08
Independiente Medellín under 2.5 goals	82.2%	81.5%	92.9%	0.88×	1.23
Independiente Medellín over 0.5 goals	76.4%	76.2%	62.2%	1.23×	1.31
Independiente Medellín under 1.5 goals	57.6%	59.4%	74.2%	0.80×	1.68
Independiente Medellín over 1.5 goals	42.4%	40.6%	25.8%	1.57×	2.47
Independiente Medellín under 0.5 goals	23.6%	23.8%	37.8%	0.63×	4.21
Independiente Medellín over 2.5 goals	17.8%	18.5%	7.1%	2.62×	5.41
Independiente Medellín over 3.5 goals	5.9%	7.6%	1.9%	3.94×	13.09

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente Medellín under 1.5 in 1st half	88.5%	89.3%	—	—	1.12
Independiente Medellín under 0.5 in 1st half	56.1%	62.4%	—	—	1.60
Independiente Medellín over 0.5 in 1st half	43.9%	37.6%	—	—	2.66
Independiente Medellín over 1.5 in 1st half	11.5%	10.7%	—	—	9.34

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente Medellín scores more in 2nd half	40.1%	43.6%	—	—	2.30
Independiente Medellín scores equally in both	36.9%	37.4%	—	—	2.67
Independiente Medellín scores more in 1st half	23.0%	21.8%	—	—	4.58

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Águilas Doradas (away no bet)	55.4%	57.3%	60.8%	0.94×	1.75
Draw (away no bet)	44.6%	42.7%	39.2%	1.09×	2.34

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente Medellín even goals	52.8%	52.6%	57.6%	0.91×	1.90
Independiente Medellín odd goals	47.2%	47.4%	42.4%	1.12×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	84.4%	83.2%	—	—	1.20
Both halves over 1.5 goals	15.6%	16.8%	—	—	5.95

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	65.5%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Both halves under 1.5 goals	34.5%	32.3%	—	—	3.10

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	56.5%	54.9%	—	—	1.82
Independiente Medellín to score 2+ in a row	33.5%	28.9%	—	—	3.46
Águilas Doradas to score 2+ in a row	29.8%	25.0%	—	—	4.00
Either team to score 3+ in a row	19.8%	16.2%	—	—	6.17
Independiente Medellín to score 3+ in a row	11.1%	12.1%	—	—	8.25
Águilas Doradas to score 3+ in a row	9.0%	5.5%	—	—	18.06

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Águilas Doradas corners (+3.5)	85.8%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Independiente Medellín corners (+3.5)	82.0%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Águilas Doradas corners (+2.5)	78.7%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Independiente Medellín corners (+2.5)	73.9%	70.8%	—	—	1.41
Águilas Doradas corners (+1.5)	69.6%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Independiente Medellín corners (+1.5)	63.9%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Águilas Doradas corners (-1.5)	36.1%	38.1%	—	—	2.62
Independiente Medellín corners (-1.5)	30.4%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Águilas Doradas corners (-2.5)	26.1%	29.2%	—	—	3.42
Independiente Medellín corners (-2.5)	21.3%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Águilas Doradas corners (-3.5)	18.0%	20.2%	—	—	4.95
Independiente Medellín corners (-3.5)	14.2%	15.5%	—	—	6.45

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	52.8%	45.3%	—	—	2.21
9-11 corners	26.9%	31.2%	—	—	3.21
12+ corners	20.3%	25.6%	—	—	3.90

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	85.6%	83.1%	—	—	1.20
Under 11.5 corners	79.7%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 10.5 corners	72.2%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 9.5 corners	63.2%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Over 7.5 corners	58.3%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 8.5 corners	52.8%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 8.5 corners	47.2%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Under 7.5 corners	41.7%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Over 9.5 corners	36.8%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 10.5 corners	27.8%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 11.5 corners	20.3%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
Over 12.5 corners	14.4%	16.9%	—	—	5.91

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	12.9%	11.5%	13.0%	0.88×	8.71
1-2	8.6%	7.4%	7.1%	1.05×	13.51
0-0	7.1%	7.4%	10.8%	0.69×	13.51
0-1	8.0%	7.4%	8.4%	0.88×	13.51
0-2	6.5%	7.4%	3.7%	1.98×	13.51
1-0	7.3%	7.4%	12.2%	0.61×	13.51
2-1	8.0%	7.4%	10.9%	0.68×	13.51
2-0	5.5%	7.4%	8.4%	0.88×	13.51
2-2	5.8%	7.4%	5.3%	1.41×	13.51
0-3	3.1%	1.7%	1.1%	1.55×	58.30
0-4	1.1%	1.7%	0.6%	3.10×	58.31
1-3	4.2%	1.7%	1.4%	1.24×	58.30
1-4	1.5%	1.7%	0.7%	2.48×	58.31
2-3	2.8%	1.7%	1.9%	0.88×	58.30
2-4	1.0%	1.7%	0.1%	12.38×	58.31
3-0	2.5%	1.7%	4.6%	0.38×	58.31
3-1	3.6%	1.7%	3.5%	0.50×	58.30
3-2	2.6%	1.7%	2.4%	0.73×	58.30
3-3	1.2%	1.7%	0.8%	2.06×	58.31
3-4	0.5%	1.7%	0.3%	6.19×	58.32
4-0	0.8%	1.7%	1.7%	1.03×	58.31
4-1	1.2%	1.7%	0.7%	2.48×	58.31
4-2	0.9%	1.7%	0.7%	2.48×	58.31
4-3	0.4%	1.7%	0.6%	3.10×	58.32
4-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.1%	12.38×	58.32
Any other score	2.8%	1.7%	2.4%	0.73×	58.30

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente Medellín (2nd half DNB)	54.6%	54.7%	—	—	1.83
Águilas Doradas (2nd half DNB)	45.4%	45.3%	—	—	2.21

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente Medellín leading at HT (DNB)	50.1%	56.0%	—	—	1.79
Águilas Doradas leading at HT (DNB)	49.9%	44.0%	—	—	2.27

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Águilas Doradas or Independiente Medellín (12)	72.7%	72.1%	70.5%	1.02×	1.39
Independiente Medellín or draw (X2)	66.1%	69.6%	54.2%	1.29×	1.44
Águilas Doradas or draw (1X)	61.2%	63.6%	75.2%	0.85×	1.57

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente Medellín or draw at HT	71.7%	74.4%	—	—	1.34
Águilas Doradas or draw at HT	71.6%	74.4%	—	—	1.34
Águilas Doradas or Independiente Medellín at HT	56.7%	57.4%	—	—	1.74

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente Medellín or draw (1UP)	66.1%	76.3%	—	—	1.31
Águilas Doradas or draw (1UP)	61.2%	71.5%	—	—	1.40

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente Medellín or draw in 2nd half	70.7%	73.8%	—	—	1.36
Águilas Doradas or draw in 2nd half	64.8%	63.6%	—	—	1.57
Águilas Doradas or Independiente Medellín in 2nd half	64.5%	63.6%	—	—	1.57

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	62.4%	61.3%	—	—	1.63
Neither half drawn	37.6%	38.7%	—	—	2.59

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente Medellín (DNB)	53.3%	50.9%	35.1%	1.45×	1.96
Águilas Doradas (DNB)	46.7%	49.1%	64.9%	0.76×	2.04

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente Medellín to score first	48.2%	45.9%	—	—	2.18
Águilas Doradas to score first	44.6%	41.8%	—	—	2.39
No goal scored	7.1%	7.6%	—	—	13.22

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	57.4%	55.0%	48.9%	1.12×	1.82
Not both teams to score	42.6%	45.0%	51.1%	0.88×	2.22

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	44.5%	41.6%	36.0%	1.16×	2.40
Not both score & under 2.5	34.4%	34.6%	43.1%	0.80×	2.89
Both score & under 2.5	12.9%	12.4%	13.0%	0.95×	8.09
Not both score & over 2.5	8.2%	8.3%	8.2%	1.01×	12.06

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	83.6%	82.6%	88.6%	0.93×	1.21
Both teams to score 2+	16.4%	17.4%	11.4%	1.53×	5.76

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	68.7%	67.1%	—	—	1.49
Both teams to score in 2nd half	31.3%	32.9%	—	—	3.04

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	55.3%	60.0%	—	—	1.67
Both score 2nd half only	25.3%	26.8%	—	—	3.73
Both score 1st half only	13.4%	10.7%	—	—	9.33
Both score in both halves	6.0%	6.8%	—	—	14.80

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	80.6%	83.5%	—	—	1.20
Both teams to score by HT	19.4%	16.5%	—	—	6.07

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	55.5%	57.0%	—	—	1.76
A half without a goal	44.5%	43.0%	—	—	2.33

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	47.1%	47.2%	48.1%	0.98×	2.12
4-6 goals	28.1%	26.6%	19.5%	1.36×	3.76
0-1 goals	22.4%	22.9%	31.2%	0.74×	4.36
7+ goals	2.4%	1.8%	1.5%	1.21×	54.32

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente Medellín to score exactly 1	34.1%	33.8%	36.6%	0.93×	2.96
Independiente Medellín to score exactly 2	24.6%	22.3%	18.8%	1.18×	4.49
Independiente Medellín to score exactly 0	23.6%	22.3%	37.8%	0.59×	4.49
Independiente Medellín to score 3+	17.8%	19.5%	7.1%	2.77×	5.12

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Águilas Doradas to score exactly 1	35.1%	35.5%	34.5%	1.03×	2.81
Águilas Doradas to score exactly 0	26.2%	26.6%	24.1%	1.10×	3.77
Águilas Doradas to score exactly 2	23.5%	23.3%	26.2%	0.89×	4.29
Águilas Doradas to score 3+	15.2%	18.8%	15.5%	1.21×	5.33

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	43.3%	42.6%	—	—	2.35
Independiente Medellín leading at HT	28.4%	25.6%	—	—	3.91
Águilas Doradas leading at HT	28.3%	25.6%	—	—	3.91

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente Medellín -1: 1	61.2%	62.5%	—	—	1.60
Independiente Medellín -1: X	19.9%	17.5%	—	—	5.71
Independiente Medellín -1: 2	18.9%	17.5%	—	—	5.71

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente Medellín (0:1)	66.1%	65.2%	54.2%	1.20×	1.53
Draw (0:1)	18.3%	17.8%	25.6%	0.70×	5.61
Águilas Doradas (0:1)	15.6%	17.8%	20.4%	0.87×	5.62

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente Medellín (0:2)	84.4%	83.0%	79.6%	1.04×	1.21
Draw (0:2)	10.1%	11.0%	12.3%	0.89×	9.11
Águilas Doradas (0:2)	5.5%	7.6%	8.2%	0.94×	13.07

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente Medellín (0:3)	94.5%	92.7%	91.8%	1.01×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	3.9%	2.4%	5.4%	0.44×	41.97
Águilas Doradas (0:3)	1.6%	2.4%	2.9%	0.82×	42.07

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente Medellín (0:4)	98.4%	98.1%	97.1%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.2%	1.2%	1.9%	0.63×	81.84
Águilas Doradas (0:4)	0.4%	1.2%	1.1%	1.10×	81.93

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Águilas Doradas (1:0)	61.2%	65.2%	75.2%	0.87×	1.53
Draw (1:0)	19.9%	17.1%	17.3%	0.99×	5.84
Independiente Medellín (1:0)	18.9%	17.1%	7.6%	2.25×	5.85

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Águilas Doradas (2:0)	81.1%	84.6%	92.4%	0.92×	1.18
Draw (2:0)	11.8%	10.3%	5.0%	2.06×	9.72
Independiente Medellín (2:0)	7.1%	6.4%	2.8%	2.31×	15.66

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	47.7%	48.6%	—	—	2.06
1st half highest scoring	26.4%	26.2%	—	—	3.82
Halves equal	26.0%	26.2%	—	—	3.82

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Águilas Doradas to concede	76.4%	76.0%	62.2%	1.22×	1.32
Águilas Doradas clean sheet	23.6%	24.0%	37.8%	0.63×	4.17

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Águilas Doradas clean sheet in 1st half	56.1%	62.4%	—	—	1.60
Águilas Doradas to concede in 1st half	43.9%	37.6%	—	—	2.66

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Águilas Doradas to concede in 2nd half	58.0%	54.9%	—	—	1.82
Águilas Doradas clean sheet in 2nd half	42.0%	45.1%	—	—	2.22

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Águilas Doradas under 6.5 corners	79.9%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Águilas Doradas over 2.5 corners	75.0%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Águilas Doradas under 5.5 corners	69.6%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Águilas Doradas over 3.5 corners	59.1%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Águilas Doradas under 4.5 corners	56.3%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Águilas Doradas over 4.5 corners	43.7%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Águilas Doradas under 3.5 corners	40.9%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Águilas Doradas over 5.5 corners	30.4%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Águilas Doradas under 2.5 corners	25.0%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
Águilas Doradas over 6.5 corners	20.1%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Águilas Doradas under 3.5 goals	95.3%	96.4%	95.3%	1.01×	1.04
Águilas Doradas under 2.5 goals	84.8%	82.2%	84.5%	0.97×	1.22
Águilas Doradas over 0.5 goals	73.8%	74.2%	75.9%	0.98×	1.35
Águilas Doradas under 1.5 goals	61.3%	63.6%	58.4%	1.09×	1.57
Águilas Doradas over 1.5 goals	38.7%	36.4%	41.6%	0.88×	2.75
Águilas Doradas under 0.5 goals	26.2%	25.8%	24.1%	1.07×	3.88
Águilas Doradas over 2.5 goals	15.2%	17.8%	15.5%	1.15×	5.62
Águilas Doradas over 3.5 goals	4.7%	3.6%	4.7%	0.77×	27.48

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Águilas Doradas under 1.5 in 1st half	88.6%	90.1%	—	—	1.11
Águilas Doradas under 0.5 in 1st half	56.2%	56.3%	—	—	1.78
Águilas Doradas over 0.5 in 1st half	43.8%	43.7%	—	—	2.29
Águilas Doradas over 1.5 in 1st half	11.4%	9.9%	—	—	10.15

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Águilas Doradas scores equally in both	39.1%	38.3%	—	—	2.61
Águilas Doradas scores more in 2nd half	36.2%	38.3%	—	—	2.61
Águilas Doradas scores more in 1st half	24.8%	21.0%	—	—	4.77

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente Medellín (home no bet)	58.7%	56.4%	45.7%	1.24×	1.77
Draw (home no bet)	41.3%	43.6%	54.3%	0.80×	2.29

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Águilas Doradas even goals	53.4%	50.8%	53.3%	0.95×	1.97
Águilas Doradas odd goals	46.6%	49.2%	46.7%	1.06×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	31.7%	33.3%	—	—	3.00
HT 0-1	18.1%	18.6%	—	—	5.38
HT 1-0	18.0%	18.6%	—	—	5.38
HT 1-1	10.7%	11.0%	—	—	9.13
HT 0-2	5.3%	6.9%	—	—	14.58
HT 2-0	5.2%	6.9%	—	—	14.58
Any other HT score	4.1%	2.4%	—	—	42.13
HT 1-2	3.0%	2.4%	—	—	42.20
HT 2-1	3.0%	2.4%	—	—	42.21
HT 2-2	0.9%	2.4%	—	—	42.35

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente Medellín at HT / Independiente Medellín at FT	21.3%	21.6%	—	—	4.64
Águilas Doradas at HT / Águilas Doradas at FT	19.7%	16.8%	—	—	5.96
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	16.4%	16.8%	—	—	5.97
Draw at HT / Independiente Medellín at FT	14.7%	12.7%	—	—	7.88
Draw at HT / Águilas Doradas at FT	12.2%	12.7%	—	—	7.90
Águilas Doradas at HT / Draw at FT	5.8%	6.0%	—	—	16.54
Independiente Medellín at HT / Draw at FT	5.0%	6.0%	—	—	16.56
Águilas Doradas at HT / Independiente Medellín at FT	2.8%	3.5%	—	—	28.93
Independiente Medellín at HT / Águilas Doradas at FT	2.1%	3.5%	—	—	28.96

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente Medellín to score last	48.2%	46.4%	—	—	2.16
Águilas Doradas to score last	44.6%	40.1%	—	—	2.49
No goal scored	7.1%	7.6%	—	—	13.22

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	92.9%	92.5%	—	—	1.08
Independiente Medellín to lead by 1 at any time	56.1%	54.9%	—	—	1.82
Águilas Doradas to lead by 1 at any time	51.9%	50.6%	—	—	1.98
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	46.8%	44.3%	—	—	2.26
Independiente Medellín to lead by 2 at any time	25.3%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Águilas Doradas to lead by 2 at any time	21.7%	19.5%	—	—	5.13
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	16.4%	14.8%	—	—	6.75
Independiente Medellín to lead by 3 at any time	9.1%	6.7%	—	—	14.96
Águilas Doradas to lead by 3 at any time	7.3%	6.6%	—	—	15.05

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Águilas Doradas most corners	47.3%	47.0%	—	—	2.13
Independiente Medellín most corners	41.2%	43.5%	—	—	2.30
Corners level	11.5%	10.4%	—	—	9.58

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	86.5%	87.4%	85.7%	1.02×	1.14
1-4 goals	77.9%	78.7%	80.1%	0.98×	1.27
2-6 goals	75.2%	78.7%	67.5%	1.17×	1.27
2-5 goals	71.2%	72.3%	65.4%	1.11×	1.38
2-4 goals	62.6%	63.3%	59.7%	1.06×	1.58
1-3 goals	62.4%	63.3%	68.4%	0.93×	1.58
3-6 goals	50.3%	53.1%	42.7%	1.25×	1.88
2-3 goals	47.1%	48.4%	48.1%	1.01×	2.06
3-5 goals	46.3%	48.4%	40.6%	1.19×	2.06
1-2 goals	40.2%	43.6%	45.3%	0.96×	2.29
3-4 goals	37.7%	39.2%	34.9%	1.12×	2.55
4-6 goals	28.1%	30.2%	19.5%	1.55×	3.31
4-5 goals	24.1%	24.5%	17.5%	1.40×	4.09
5-6 goals	12.6%	14.8%	7.9%	1.88×	6.76
7+ goals	2.4%	2.6%	1.5%	1.68×	39.16

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente Medellín never behind	40.9%	48.6%	—	—	2.06
Águilas Doradas never behind	36.7%	44.2%	—	—	2.26

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	47.9%	50.9%	50.4%	1.01×	1.97
Even number of goals	52.1%	49.1%	49.6%	0.99×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	55.3%	57.6%	—	—	1.74
Odd goals in 1st half	44.7%	42.4%	—	—	2.36

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	52.6%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	47.4%	48.0%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	93.6%	92.3%	96.4%	0.96×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	92.9%	92.3%	89.2%	1.03×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	85.0%	87.6%	90.7%	0.97×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	77.6%	77.3%	68.8%	1.12×	1.29
Under 3.5 goals	69.5%	66.3%	79.1%	0.84×	1.51
Over 2.5 goals	52.7%	52.5%	44.0%	1.19×	1.90
Under 2.5 goals	47.3%	47.5%	56.0%	0.85×	2.11
Over 3.5 goals	30.5%	33.7%	20.9%	1.61×	2.97
Under 1.5 goals	22.4%	22.7%	31.2%	0.73×	4.40
Over 4.5 goals	15.0%	12.4%	9.3%	1.34×	8.06
Under 0.5 goals	7.1%	7.7%	10.8%	0.72×	12.94
Over 5.5 goals	6.4%	7.7%	3.6%	2.15×	12.94

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	97.5%	97.2%	98.4%	0.99×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	93.0%	92.4%	96.2%	0.96×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	82.3%	81.1%	89.5%	0.91×	1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	70.2%	72.3%	58.6%	1.24×	1.38
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	60.8%	61.9%	72.8%	0.85×	1.62
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	39.2%	38.1%	27.2%	1.40×	2.62
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	29.8%	27.7%	41.4%	0.67×	3.62
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	17.7%	18.9%	10.5%	1.80×	5.29
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	7.0%	7.6%	3.8%	1.99×	13.19
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	2.5%	2.8%	1.6%	1.80×	35.62

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	88.9%	89.1%	—	—	1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half	68.3%	68.6%	—	—	1.46
Under 1.5 in 1st half	67.8%	68.5%	—	—	1.46
Over 1.5 in 1st half	32.2%	31.5%	—	—	3.18
Under 0.5 in 1st half	31.7%	31.4%	—	—	3.18
Over 2.5 in 1st half	11.1%	10.9%	—	—	9.14

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	80.1%	83.0%	—	—	1.20
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	77.5%	79.4%	—	—	1.26
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	51.2%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	48.8%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	22.5%	20.6%	—	—	4.86
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	19.9%	17.0%	—	—	5.89

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Águilas Doradas not to score in both halves	76.6%	78.6%	—	—	1.27
Independiente Medellín not to score in both halves	74.5%	73.7%	—	—	1.36
Independiente Medellín to score in both halves	25.5%	26.3%	—	—	3.81
Águilas Doradas to score in both halves	23.4%	21.4%	—	—	4.67

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	57.4%	58.6%	48.9%	1.20×	1.71
Only Independiente Medellín scores	19.1%	16.1%	13.4%	1.19×	6.23
Only Águilas Doradas scores	16.4%	16.0%	27.1%	0.59×	6.24
Neither team scores	7.1%	7.1%	10.8%	0.66×	14.01

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	24.9%	22.6%	24.9%	0.91×	4.43
Exactly 3 goals	22.2%	22.6%	23.3%	0.97×	4.43
Exactly 1 goals	15.2%	17.5%	20.5%	0.85×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	15.5%	17.5%	11.8%	1.48×	5.73
Exactly 5 goals	8.6%	7.6%	5.8%	1.31×	13.13
Exactly 0 goals	7.1%	7.6%	10.8%	0.70×	13.14
6 or more goals	6.4%	7.6%	3.6%	2.11×	13.14

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	36.1%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
No goals in 1st half	31.7%	35.6%	—	—	2.81
2 goals in 1st half	21.2%	21.5%	—	—	4.65
3+ goals in 1st half	11.1%	10.8%	—	—	9.22

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	48.8%	44.7%	—	—	2.24
1 goal in 2nd half	31.3%	33.9%	—	—	2.95
No goals in 2nd half	19.9%	16.8%	—	—	5.96

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Águilas Doradas not to win both halves	91.6%	94.1%	—	—	1.06
Independiente Medellín not to win both halves	89.8%	88.0%	—	—	1.14
Independiente Medellín to win both halves	10.2%	12.0%	—	—	8.36
Águilas Doradas to win both halves	8.4%	5.9%	—	—	17.06

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente Medellín to win either half	53.5%	54.4%	—	—	1.84
Águilas Doradas to win neither half	50.9%	54.3%	—	—	1.84
Águilas Doradas to win either half	49.1%	45.7%	—	—	2.19
Independiente Medellín to win neither half	46.5%	45.6%	—	—	2.19

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Águilas Doradas not to win to nil	83.6%	83.1%	72.9%	1.14×	1.20
Independiente Medellín not to win to nil	80.9%	83.1%	86.6%	0.96×	1.20
Independiente Medellín to win to nil	19.1%	16.9%	13.4%	1.26×	5.91
Águilas Doradas to win to nil	16.4%	16.9%	27.1%	0.62×	5.92

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	27.3%	27.9%	29.5%	0.94×	3.59
Independiente Medellín by 1	19.9%	17.1%	17.3%	0.99×	5.86
Águilas Doradas by 1	18.3%	17.1%	25.6%	0.67×	5.87
Independiente Medellín by 2	11.8%	11.8%	5.0%	2.36×	8.51
Águilas Doradas by 2	10.1%	11.8%	12.3%	0.95×	8.51
Independiente Medellín by 3+	7.1%	7.2%	2.8%	2.60×	13.91
Águilas Doradas by 3+	5.5%	7.2%	8.2%	0.88×	13.92