Ajax Amsterdam v ADO Den Haag — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 21 November 2026 · NED-Eredivisie · 2627

Eredivisie results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Ajax Amsterdam

20:00 UTC

ADO Den Haag

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 23 Oct, 10:58 · 705h before kick-off

Ajax Amsterdam win

72.8%

model 70.5%

Draw

17.4%

model 18.5%

ADO Den Haag win

9.8%

model 11.0%

731710

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (94 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

2-0 10.7%
2-1 9.5%
3-0 8.7%
1-1 8.7%
1-0 7.9%

Goals

Over 2.5	64.6%	Under 2.5	35.4%
BTTS yes	54.6%	BTTS no	45.4%
Ajax Amsterdam 1+	91.2%	Ajax Amsterdam 2+	69.9%
ADO Den Haag 1+	58.9%	ADO Den Haag 2+	22.4%

Expected goals 2.44 – 0.89. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

74/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

91%

★ Best pick

Ajax Amsterdam (-0.5)

Asian handicap · usually 44%

73.1% fair odds 1.37

strong signal · 1214 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

ADO Den Haag not to score in both halves

Score both halves

84.3% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 828 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Ajax Amsterdam carry the stronger rating, 1663 Elo against 1610.
Form is good: 2.20 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Ajax Amsterdam have an estimated 72.8% win probability, against 17.4% for the draw and 9.8% for ADO Den Haag. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.44 for Ajax Amsterdam and 0.89 for ADO Den Haag.

Why Ajax Amsterdam

Ajax Amsterdam carry the stronger rating, 1663 Elo against 1610. Form is good: 2.20 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 17.4%. Draws run at 26% in this competition.

Why ADO Den Haag can win

Nothing in the data singles out ADO Den Haag.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Ajax Amsterdam, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for ADO Den Haag, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Ajax Amsterdam: 61% possession, 19.4 shots a match, 9.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. ADO Den Haag: 49% possession, 14.2 shots a match, 17.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Ajax Amsterdam's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-23 14:52 · team_stats 2026-10-20 06:04 · availability 2026-10-23 14:58 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Ajax Amsterdam are the model's most likely outcome at 72.8%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-0 at 10.7%. Confidence 74/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	711811	2.44–0.89	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	79147	2.77–0.73	2-0 12%	68%	49%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ajax Amsterdam to win	79.1%	78.4%	44.4%	1.76×	1.28
Draw	14.4%	13.5%	25.6%	0.53×	7.40
ADO Den Haag to win	6.5%	8.1%	30.1%	0.27×	12.39

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ajax Amsterdam & not both score	44.6%	40.1%	23.4%	1.71×	2.49
Ajax Amsterdam & both teams score	34.5%	29.6%	21.2%	1.40×	3.37
Draw & both teams score	10.6%	13.3%	22.2%	0.60×	7.54
ADO Den Haag & both teams score	3.9%	4.9%	17.2%	0.28×	20.58
Draw & not both score	3.7%	4.9%	3.5%	1.39×	20.58
ADO Den Haag & not both score	2.6%	4.9%	13.1%	0.37×	20.62

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ajax Amsterdam & over 1.5	71.4%	67.3%	36.2%	1.86×	1.49
Ajax Amsterdam & over 2.5	59.8%	55.0%	28.9%	1.90×	1.82
Ajax Amsterdam & over 3.5	40.6%	40.2%	17.0%	2.36×	2.49
Ajax Amsterdam & under 3.5	38.6%	34.9%	27.5%	1.27×	2.87
Ajax Amsterdam & under 2.5	19.4%	18.0%	15.7%	1.15×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	10.6%	12.8%	22.2%	0.58×	7.79
Draw & under 2.5	10.5%	12.8%	15.1%	0.85×	7.79
Draw & under 3.5	10.5%	12.8%	15.1%	0.85×	7.79
Ajax Amsterdam & under 1.5	7.7%	7.9%	8.4%	0.95×	12.63
ADO Den Haag & over 1.5	5.0%	4.8%	26.2%	0.18×	20.81
ADO Den Haag & under 3.5	4.8%	4.8%	19.9%	0.24×	20.81
Draw & over 2.5	3.9%	4.8%	10.7%	0.45×	20.81
Draw & over 3.5	3.9%	4.8%	10.7%	0.45×	20.81
ADO Den Haag & over 2.5	4.2%	4.8%	20.4%	0.24×	20.81
Draw & under 1.5	3.7%	4.8%	3.5%	1.37×	20.81
ADO Den Haag & under 2.5	2.3%	4.8%	9.9%	0.49×	20.82
ADO Den Haag & over 3.5	1.8%	4.8%	10.4%	0.46×	20.83
ADO Den Haag & under 1.5	1.5%	4.8%	4.1%	1.17×	20.83

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ajax Amsterdam (1UP)	86.6%	90.3%	—	—	1.11
ADO Den Haag (1UP)	22.5%	22.1%	—	—	4.52

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ajax Amsterdam (2UP)	79.1%	78.0%	—	—	1.28
ADO Den Haag (2UP)	6.5%	8.0%	—	—	12.50

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ajax Amsterdam to win 2nd half	65.6%	62.3%	—	—	1.60
2nd half drawn	24.7%	24.3%	—	—	4.11
ADO Den Haag to win 2nd half	9.7%	7.6%	—	—	13.09

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
ADO Den Haag under 1.5 in 2nd half	92.8%	92.0%	—	—	1.09
ADO Den Haag under 0.5 in 2nd half	64.6%	60.2%	—	—	1.66
ADO Den Haag over 0.5 in 2nd half	35.4%	39.8%	—	—	2.51
ADO Den Haag over 1.5 in 2nd half	7.2%	8.0%	—	—	12.57

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ajax Amsterdam over 0.5 in 2nd half	79.3%	75.6%	—	—	1.32
Ajax Amsterdam under 1.5 in 2nd half	53.3%	55.1%	—	—	1.81
Ajax Amsterdam over 1.5 in 2nd half	46.7%	44.9%	—	—	2.23
Ajax Amsterdam under 0.5 in 2nd half	20.7%	24.4%	—	—	4.10

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ajax Amsterdam (+0.5)	93.5%	92.1%	69.9%	1.32×	1.09
Ajax Amsterdam (-0.5)	79.1%	78.5%	44.4%	1.77×	1.27
ADO Den Haag (+2.5)	62.1%	62.9%	86.8%	0.73×	1.59
Ajax Amsterdam (-1.5)	59.6%	57.1%	25.3%	2.26×	1.75
ADO Den Haag (+1.5)	40.4%	42.9%	74.7%	0.57×	2.33
Ajax Amsterdam (-2.5)	37.9%	37.1%	13.2%	2.80×	2.70
ADO Den Haag (+0.5)	20.9%	21.5%	55.6%	0.39×	4.65
ADO Den Haag (-0.5)	6.5%	7.9%	30.1%	0.26×	12.70

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
ADO Den Haag to concede	93.7%	91.9%	83.6%	1.10×	1.09
ADO Den Haag clean sheet	6.3%	8.1%	16.4%	0.49×	12.38

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
ADO Den Haag to concede in 1st half	69.6%	70.8%	—	—	1.41
ADO Den Haag clean sheet in 1st half	30.4%	29.2%	—	—	3.42

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
ADO Den Haag to concede in 2nd half	79.3%	76.3%	—	—	1.31
ADO Den Haag clean sheet in 2nd half	20.7%	23.7%	—	—	4.23

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
ADO Den Haag over 2.5 corners	79.5%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
ADO Den Haag under 6.5 corners	76.9%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
ADO Den Haag under 5.5 corners	65.5%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
ADO Den Haag over 3.5 corners	64.4%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
ADO Den Haag under 4.5 corners	51.3%	53.0%	—	—	1.89
ADO Den Haag over 4.5 corners	48.7%	47.0%	—	—	2.13
ADO Den Haag under 3.5 corners	35.6%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
ADO Den Haag over 5.5 corners	34.5%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
ADO Den Haag over 6.5 corners	23.1%	24.0%	—	—	4.17
ADO Den Haag under 2.5 corners	20.5%	24.0%	—	—	4.17

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
ADO Den Haag under 3.5 goals	99.3%	97.5%	94.4%	1.03×	1.03
ADO Den Haag under 2.5 goals	96.2%	97.5%	84.9%	1.15×	1.03
ADO Den Haag under 1.5 goals	83.5%	81.5%	58.1%	1.40×	1.23
ADO Den Haag over 0.5 goals	51.7%	53.5%	73.2%	0.73×	1.87
ADO Den Haag under 0.5 goals	48.3%	46.5%	26.8%	1.73×	2.15
ADO Den Haag over 1.5 goals	16.5%	18.5%	41.9%	0.44×	5.40
ADO Den Haag over 2.5 goals	3.8%	2.5%	15.1%	0.17×	39.84
ADO Den Haag over 3.5 goals	0.7%	2.5%	5.6%	0.44×	40.00

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
ADO Den Haag under 1.5 in 1st half	96.5%	96.1%	—	—	1.04
ADO Den Haag under 0.5 in 1st half	74.8%	69.0%	—	—	1.45
ADO Den Haag over 0.5 in 1st half	25.2%	31.0%	—	—	3.23
ADO Den Haag over 1.5 in 1st half	3.5%	3.9%	—	—	25.62

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
ADO Den Haag scores equally in both	54.7%	51.4%	—	—	1.95
ADO Den Haag scores more in 2nd half	28.0%	26.3%	—	—	3.80
ADO Den Haag scores more in 1st half	17.3%	17.9%	—	—	5.57

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ajax Amsterdam (away no bet)	84.6%	82.9%	63.5%	1.31×	1.21
Draw (away no bet)	15.4%	17.1%	36.5%	0.47×	5.83

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
ADO Den Haag even goals	61.7%	59.1%	57.4%	1.03×	1.69
ADO Den Haag odd goals	38.3%	40.9%	42.6%	0.96×	2.44

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	74.0%	76.8%	—	—	1.30
Both halves over 1.5 goals	26.0%	23.2%	—	—	4.30

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	77.6%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Both halves under 1.5 goals	22.4%	27.5%	—	—	3.63

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	75.2%	75.2%	—	—	1.33
Ajax Amsterdam to score 2+ in a row	70.9%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Either team to score 3+ in a row	44.3%	38.9%	—	—	2.57
Ajax Amsterdam to score 3+ in a row	43.2%	38.8%	—	—	2.58
ADO Den Haag to score 2+ in a row	9.3%	5.6%	—	—	17.80
ADO Den Haag to score 3+ in a row	1.3%	2.5%	—	—	39.92

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ajax Amsterdam corners (+3.5)	83.7%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
ADO Den Haag corners (+3.5)	82.6%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Ajax Amsterdam corners (+2.5)	76.2%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
ADO Den Haag corners (+2.5)	74.9%	70.8%	—	—	1.41
Ajax Amsterdam corners (+1.5)	66.9%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
ADO Den Haag corners (+1.5)	65.4%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Ajax Amsterdam corners (-1.5)	34.6%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
ADO Den Haag corners (-1.5)	33.1%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Ajax Amsterdam corners (-2.5)	25.1%	29.2%	—	—	3.42
ADO Den Haag corners (-2.5)	23.8%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Ajax Amsterdam corners (-3.5)	17.4%	20.2%	—	—	4.94
ADO Den Haag corners (-3.5)	16.3%	20.2%	—	—	4.94

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	42.0%	38.3%	—	—	2.61
9-11 corners	29.8%	31.2%	—	—	3.21
12+ corners	28.3%	31.2%	—	—	3.21

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	79.2%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 11.5 corners	71.7%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Over 7.5 corners	68.7%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Under 10.5 corners	62.8%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Over 8.5 corners	58.0%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 9.5 corners	52.7%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 9.5 corners	47.3%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Under 8.5 corners	42.0%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Over 10.5 corners	37.2%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Under 7.5 corners	31.3%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Over 11.5 corners	28.3%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 12.5 corners	20.8%	23.4%	—	—	4.27

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Any other score	14.7%	11.5%	6.5%	1.75×	8.72
2-0	11.6%	11.5%	7.5%	1.54×	8.72
3-0	10.7%	11.5%	4.3%	2.69×	8.72
2-1	8.5%	7.4%	7.9%	0.94×	13.50
1-0	7.7%	7.4%	8.4%	0.88×	13.50
1-1	6.8%	7.4%	11.7%	0.63×	13.51
3-1	7.8%	7.4%	3.7%	2.03×	13.50
4-0	7.4%	7.4%	1.8%	4.05×	13.50
4-1	5.4%	7.4%	3.2%	2.32×	13.51
0-0	3.7%	1.7%	3.5%	0.49×	58.30
0-1	1.5%	1.7%	4.1%	0.42×	58.31
0-2	0.8%	1.7%	5.9%	0.29×	58.31
0-3	0.2%	1.7%	2.3%	0.75×	58.32
0-4	0.0%	1.7%	0.9%	1.88×	58.32
1-2	2.2%	1.7%	8.1%	0.21×	58.31
1-3	0.5%	1.7%	2.6%	0.66×	58.32
1-4	0.1%	1.7%	2.1%	0.80×	58.32
2-2	3.1%	1.7%	8.7%	0.20×	58.30
2-3	0.7%	1.7%	2.4%	0.70×	58.32
2-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.5%	3.76×	58.32
3-2	2.8%	1.7%	2.9%	0.59×	58.30
3-3	0.7%	1.7%	2.1%	0.80×	58.32
3-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.6%	2.82×	58.32
4-2	2.0%	1.7%	1.2%	1.41×	58.31
4-3	0.5%	1.7%	0.6%	2.82×	58.32
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.2%	11.27×	58.32

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ajax Amsterdam (2nd half DNB)	87.1%	86.5%	—	—	1.16
ADO Den Haag (2nd half DNB)	12.9%	13.5%	—	—	7.38

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ajax Amsterdam leading at HT (DNB)	87.0%	88.1%	—	—	1.14
ADO Den Haag leading at HT (DNB)	13.0%	11.9%	—	—	8.37

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ajax Amsterdam or draw (1X)	93.5%	91.9%	69.9%	1.32×	1.09
Ajax Amsterdam or ADO Den Haag (12)	85.6%	86.5%	74.4%	1.16×	1.16
ADO Den Haag or draw (X2)	20.9%	21.6%	55.6%	0.39×	4.63

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ajax Amsterdam or draw at HT	91.1%	91.1%	—	—	1.10
Ajax Amsterdam or ADO Den Haag at HT	68.5%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
ADO Den Haag or draw at HT	40.4%	41.5%	—	—	2.41

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ajax Amsterdam or draw (1UP)	93.5%	94.1%	—	—	1.06
ADO Den Haag or draw (1UP)	22.5%	23.7%	—	—	4.23

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ajax Amsterdam or draw in 2nd half	90.3%	92.4%	—	—	1.08
Ajax Amsterdam or ADO Den Haag in 2nd half	75.3%	75.7%	—	—	1.32
ADO Den Haag or draw in 2nd half	34.4%	37.7%	—	—	2.66

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	47.7%	50.0%	—	—	2.00
Neither half drawn	52.4%	50.0%	—	—	2.00

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ajax Amsterdam (DNB)	92.4%	93.3%	59.6%	1.57×	1.07
ADO Den Haag (DNB)	7.6%	6.7%	40.4%	0.17×	14.90

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ajax Amsterdam to score first	76.3%	80.5%	—	—	1.24
ADO Den Haag to score first	20.0%	22.2%	—	—	4.51
No goal scored	3.7%	4.3%	—	—	23.34

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	50.9%	51.3%	39.7%	1.29×	1.95
Both teams to score	49.1%	48.7%	60.3%	0.81×	2.05

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	42.3%	41.6%	48.7%	0.85×	2.41
Not both score & over 2.5	25.5%	33.3%	11.1%	3.00×	3.00
Not both score & under 2.5	25.4%	33.3%	28.8%	1.16×	3.00
Both score & under 2.5	6.8%	8.3%	11.7%	0.71×	12.07

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	87.4%	85.6%	80.4%	1.07×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	12.6%	14.4%	19.6%	0.73×	6.95

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	71.7%	73.8%	—	—	1.36
Both teams to score in 2nd half	28.3%	26.2%	—	—	3.81

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	59.0%	60.1%	—	—	1.66
Both score 2nd half only	23.4%	21.1%	—	—	4.74
Both score 1st half only	12.8%	10.7%	—	—	9.36
Both score in both halves	4.9%	5.0%	—	—	20.02

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	82.3%	83.2%	—	—	1.20
Both teams to score by HT	17.7%	16.8%	—	—	5.96

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	67.3%	66.4%	—	—	1.51
A half without a goal	32.7%	33.6%	—	—	2.98

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	40.9%	42.1%	46.7%	0.90×	2.38
4-6 goals	39.8%	35.2%	33.8%	1.04×	2.85
0-1 goals	13.0%	16.9%	15.7%	1.08×	5.91
7+ goals	6.4%	7.6%	4.1%	1.85×	13.15

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
ADO Den Haag to score exactly 0	48.3%	42.9%	26.8%	1.60×	2.33
ADO Den Haag to score exactly 1	35.1%	35.9%	31.5%	1.14×	2.78
ADO Den Haag to score exactly 2	12.8%	12.9%	26.9%	0.48×	7.76
ADO Den Haag to score 3+	3.8%	4.6%	15.1%	0.30×	21.81

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ajax Amsterdam to score 3+	52.2%	43.1%	23.7%	1.82×	2.32
Ajax Amsterdam to score exactly 2	24.1%	23.3%	26.9%	0.87×	4.29
Ajax Amsterdam to score exactly 1	17.4%	18.8%	33.2%	0.57×	5.33
Ajax Amsterdam to score exactly 0	6.3%	10.3%	16.4%	0.63×	9.73

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ajax Amsterdam leading at HT	59.6%	58.5%	—	—	1.71
Draw at HT	31.5%	33.3%	—	—	3.00
ADO Den Haag leading at HT	8.9%	8.9%	—	—	11.20

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ajax Amsterdam -1: 1	59.6%	56.8%	—	—	1.76
Ajax Amsterdam -1: 2	20.9%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Ajax Amsterdam -1: X	19.6%	17.5%	—	—	5.70

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ajax Amsterdam (0:1)	59.6%	55.9%	25.3%	2.21×	1.79
ADO Den Haag (0:1)	20.9%	24.2%	55.6%	0.44×	4.13
Draw (0:1)	19.6%	17.8%	19.3%	0.92×	5.61

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
ADO Den Haag (0:2)	40.4%	38.5%	74.7%	0.52×	2.60
Ajax Amsterdam (0:2)	37.9%	38.4%	13.2%	2.90×	2.60
Draw (0:2)	21.7%	20.3%	12.2%	1.67×	4.93

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
ADO Den Haag (0:3)	62.1%	65.8%	86.8%	0.76×	1.52
Ajax Amsterdam (0:3)	20.5%	19.1%	5.6%	3.40×	5.23
Draw (0:3)	17.4%	16.2%	7.8%	2.08×	6.19

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
ADO Den Haag (0:4)	79.5%	81.4%	94.4%	0.86×	1.23
Draw (0:4)	11.0%	9.8%	2.6%	3.80×	10.18
Ajax Amsterdam (0:4)	9.5%	4.7%	3.2%	1.46×	21.44

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ajax Amsterdam (1:0)	93.5%	92.7%	69.9%	1.33×	1.08
Draw (1:0)	4.6%	3.3%	14.8%	0.22×	30.38
ADO Den Haag (1:0)	1.9%	3.2%	15.5%	0.21×	30.81

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ajax Amsterdam (2:0)	98.1%	96.8%	84.5%	1.15×	1.03
Draw (2:0)	1.5%	2.3%	8.8%	0.26×	43.74
ADO Den Haag (2:0)	0.4%	2.3%	6.8%	0.33×	43.81

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	49.5%	48.8%	—	—	2.05
1st half highest scoring	28.0%	26.2%	—	—	3.81
Halves equal	22.6%	24.3%	—	—	4.11

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ajax Amsterdam to concede	51.7%	53.2%	73.2%	0.73×	1.88
Ajax Amsterdam clean sheet	48.3%	46.8%	26.8%	1.75×	2.14

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ajax Amsterdam clean sheet in 1st half	74.8%	67.9%	—	—	1.47
Ajax Amsterdam to concede in 1st half	25.2%	32.1%	—	—	3.12

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ajax Amsterdam clean sheet in 2nd half	64.6%	60.0%	—	—	1.67
Ajax Amsterdam to concede in 2nd half	35.4%	40.0%	—	—	2.50

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ajax Amsterdam over 2.5 corners	80.2%	80.9%	—	—	1.24
Ajax Amsterdam under 6.5 corners	75.9%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Ajax Amsterdam over 3.5 corners	65.5%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Ajax Amsterdam under 5.5 corners	64.3%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Ajax Amsterdam under 4.5 corners	50.1%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Ajax Amsterdam over 4.5 corners	49.9%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Ajax Amsterdam over 5.5 corners	35.7%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Ajax Amsterdam under 3.5 corners	34.5%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Ajax Amsterdam over 6.5 corners	24.1%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Ajax Amsterdam under 2.5 corners	19.8%	19.1%	—	—	5.25

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ajax Amsterdam over 0.5 goals	93.7%	92.2%	83.6%	1.10×	1.08
Ajax Amsterdam over 1.5 goals	76.3%	77.7%	50.5%	1.54×	1.29
Ajax Amsterdam under 3.5 goals	70.0%	68.0%	89.2%	0.76×	1.47
Ajax Amsterdam over 2.5 goals	52.2%	53.2%	23.7%	2.24×	1.88
Ajax Amsterdam under 2.5 goals	47.8%	46.8%	76.3%	0.61×	2.14
Ajax Amsterdam over 3.5 goals	30.0%	32.0%	10.8%	2.96×	3.12
Ajax Amsterdam under 1.5 goals	23.7%	22.3%	49.5%	0.45×	4.49
Ajax Amsterdam under 0.5 goals	6.3%	7.8%	16.4%	0.47×	12.89

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ajax Amsterdam over 0.5 in 1st half	69.6%	69.0%	—	—	1.45
Ajax Amsterdam under 1.5 in 1st half	66.6%	68.7%	—	—	1.46
Ajax Amsterdam over 1.5 in 1st half	33.4%	31.3%	—	—	3.20
Ajax Amsterdam under 0.5 in 1st half	30.4%	31.0%	—	—	3.23

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ajax Amsterdam scores more in 2nd half	46.3%	47.3%	—	—	2.11
Ajax Amsterdam scores more in 1st half	28.8%	27.8%	—	—	3.59
Ajax Amsterdam scores equally in both	24.9%	21.3%	—	—	4.70

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	68.8%	64.3%	45.9%	1.40×	1.56
ADO Den Haag (home no bet)	31.2%	35.7%	54.1%	0.66×	2.80

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ajax Amsterdam even goals	50.2%	50.7%	51.0%	0.99×	1.97
Ajax Amsterdam odd goals	49.8%	49.3%	49.0%	1.01×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 1-0	27.0%	28.0%	—	—	3.58
HT 0-0	22.9%	24.4%	—	—	4.09
HT 2-0	16.1%	18.6%	—	—	5.39
Any other HT score	12.1%	11.0%	—	—	9.08
HT 1-1	8.0%	6.9%	—	—	14.48
HT 0-1	6.5%	6.9%	—	—	14.50
HT 2-1	4.7%	2.4%	—	—	41.97
HT 0-2	1.0%	2.4%	—	—	42.22
HT 1-2	1.1%	2.4%	—	—	42.20
HT 2-2	0.7%	2.4%	—	—	42.23

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ajax Amsterdam at HT / Ajax Amsterdam at FT	55.9%	60.7%	—	—	1.65
Draw at HT / Ajax Amsterdam at FT	20.2%	21.7%	—	—	4.60
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	8.6%	6.0%	—	—	16.58
ADO Den Haag at HT / ADO Den Haag at FT	3.2%	3.5%	—	—	28.65
Ajax Amsterdam at HT / Draw at FT	3.1%	3.5%	—	—	28.65
ADO Den Haag at HT / Ajax Amsterdam at FT	3.0%	3.5%	—	—	28.65
Draw at HT / ADO Den Haag at FT	2.7%	3.5%	—	—	28.67
ADO Den Haag at HT / Draw at FT	2.7%	3.5%	—	—	28.67
Ajax Amsterdam at HT / ADO Den Haag at FT	0.6%	3.5%	—	—	28.74

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ajax Amsterdam to score last	76.4%	76.3%	—	—	1.31
ADO Den Haag to score last	19.8%	14.9%	—	—	6.70
No goal scored	3.7%	4.3%	—	—	23.34

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	96.3%	95.6%	—	—	1.05
Ajax Amsterdam to lead by 1 at any time	86.6%	91.1%	—	—	1.10
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	69.2%	69.5%	—	—	1.44
Ajax Amsterdam to lead by 2 at any time	65.0%	69.3%	—	—	1.44
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	41.9%	39.1%	—	—	2.56
Ajax Amsterdam to lead by 3 at any time	41.2%	39.1%	—	—	2.56
ADO Den Haag to lead by 1 at any time	22.5%	19.7%	—	—	5.09
ADO Den Haag to lead by 2 at any time	4.5%	1.7%	—	—	60.39
ADO Den Haag to lead by 3 at any time	0.7%	1.6%	—	—	63.97

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ajax Amsterdam most corners	45.3%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
ADO Den Haag most corners	43.6%	43.5%	—	—	2.30
Corners level	11.1%	10.4%	—	—	9.58

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	82.2%	83.4%	87.5%	0.95×	1.20
2-6 goals	80.7%	83.4%	80.4%	1.04×	1.20
2-5 goals	73.0%	72.4%	75.3%	0.96×	1.38
1-4 goals	69.0%	68.8%	75.8%	0.91×	1.45
3-6 goals	61.4%	63.3%	55.7%	1.14×	1.58
2-4 goals	59.7%	59.1%	63.6%	0.93×	1.69
3-5 goals	53.7%	53.2%	50.7%	1.05×	1.88
1-3 goals	50.1%	53.2%	58.9%	0.90×	1.88
2-3 goals	40.9%	43.6%	46.7%	0.93×	2.30
3-4 goals	40.5%	43.6%	39.0%	1.12×	2.30
4-6 goals	39.8%	39.2%	33.8%	1.16×	2.55
4-5 goals	32.1%	35.2%	28.8%	1.22×	2.84
1-2 goals	28.5%	30.2%	37.0%	0.82×	3.31
5-6 goals	20.9%	24.5%	16.9%	1.45×	4.09
7+ goals	6.4%	8.9%	4.1%	2.16×	11.27

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ajax Amsterdam never behind	73.8%	78.0%	—	—	1.28
ADO Den Haag never behind	9.7%	5.1%	—	—	19.48

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	48.6%	50.9%	48.9%	1.04×	1.96
Even number of goals	51.4%	49.1%	51.1%	0.96×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	52.8%	51.6%	—	—	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	47.2%	48.4%	—	—	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.4%	51.9%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.6%	48.1%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	96.3%	95.4%	96.5%	0.99×	1.05
Over 1.5 goals	87.0%	87.6%	84.3%	1.04×	1.14
Under 5.5 goals	85.9%	87.6%	90.9%	0.96×	1.14
Under 4.5 goals	72.7%	72.5%	79.1%	0.92×	1.38
Over 2.5 goals	67.8%	66.3%	59.7%	1.11×	1.51
Under 3.5 goals	53.8%	52.5%	62.3%	0.84×	1.90
Over 3.5 goals	46.2%	47.5%	37.7%	1.26×	2.11
Under 2.5 goals	32.2%	33.7%	40.3%	0.84×	2.97
Over 4.5 goals	27.3%	27.5%	20.9%	1.32×	3.63
Over 5.5 goals	14.1%	12.4%	9.1%	1.36×	8.06
Under 1.5 goals	13.0%	12.4%	15.7%	0.79×	8.06
Under 0.5 goals	3.7%	4.6%	3.5%	1.31×	21.86

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	93.1%	92.4%	95.7%	0.97×	1.08
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	83.9%	81.1%	79.2%	1.02×	1.23
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	83.8%	81.1%	89.7%	0.90×	1.23
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	66.4%	67.4%	74.9%	0.90×	1.48
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	58.9%	55.8%	48.3%	1.15×	1.79
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	41.1%	44.2%	51.7%	0.86×	2.26
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	33.6%	32.6%	25.1%	1.30×	3.07
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	16.2%	18.9%	10.3%	1.83×	5.29
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	16.1%	18.9%	20.8%	0.91×	5.29
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	6.9%	7.6%	4.3%	1.76×	13.16

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	81.4%	85.7%	—	—	1.17
Over 0.5 in 1st half	77.1%	78.1%	—	—	1.28
Under 1.5 in 1st half	56.3%	63.5%	—	—	1.57
Over 1.5 in 1st half	43.7%	36.5%	—	—	2.74
Under 0.5 in 1st half	22.9%	21.9%	—	—	4.57
Over 2.5 in 1st half	18.6%	14.3%	—	—	7.02

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	86.4%	85.5%	—	—	1.17
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	67.4%	68.7%	—	—	1.46
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	60.0%	55.0%	—	—	1.82
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	40.0%	45.0%	—	—	2.22
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	32.6%	31.3%	—	—	3.19
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	13.6%	14.5%	—	—	6.87

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
ADO Den Haag not to score in both halves	91.1%	90.1%	—	—	1.11
Ajax Amsterdam to score in both halves	55.2%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Ajax Amsterdam not to score in both halves	44.8%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
ADO Den Haag to score in both halves	8.9%	9.9%	—	—	10.08

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	49.1%	50.7%	60.3%	0.84×	1.97
Only Ajax Amsterdam scores	44.6%	46.6%	23.4%	1.99×	2.15
Neither team scores	3.7%	4.6%	3.5%	1.32×	21.69
Only ADO Den Haag scores	2.6%	4.6%	13.1%	0.35×	21.74

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	21.6%	22.6%	22.1%	1.02×	4.43
Exactly 2 goals	19.2%	17.5%	24.8%	0.70×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	18.9%	17.5%	17.0%	1.02×	5.73
6 or more goals	14.1%	12.1%	9.1%	1.33×	8.24
Exactly 5 goals	13.2%	12.1%	11.9%	1.02×	8.24
Exactly 1 goals	9.3%	7.6%	12.3%	0.62×	13.13
Exactly 0 goals	3.7%	4.5%	3.5%	1.28×	22.38

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	33.5%	35.9%	—	—	2.79
2 goals in 1st half	25.1%	28.2%	—	—	3.55
No goals in 1st half	22.9%	21.5%	—	—	4.65
3+ goals in 1st half	18.6%	15.7%	—	—	6.38

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	60.0%	54.3%	—	—	1.84
1 goal in 2nd half	26.4%	29.2%	—	—	3.42
No goals in 2nd half	13.6%	14.3%	—	—	6.97

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
ADO Den Haag not to win both halves	99.1%	97.3%	—	—	1.03
Ajax Amsterdam not to win both halves	60.7%	68.0%	—	—	1.47
Ajax Amsterdam to win both halves	39.3%	32.0%	—	—	3.13
ADO Den Haag to win both halves	0.9%	2.7%	—	—	36.41

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ajax Amsterdam to win either half	85.9%	91.8%	—	—	1.09
ADO Den Haag to win neither half	82.3%	83.5%	—	—	1.20
ADO Den Haag to win either half	17.7%	16.5%	—	—	6.06
Ajax Amsterdam to win neither half	14.1%	8.2%	—	—	12.13

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
ADO Den Haag not to win to nil	97.4%	96.2%	86.9%	1.11×	1.04
Ajax Amsterdam not to win to nil	55.4%	59.1%	76.6%	0.77×	1.69
Ajax Amsterdam to win to nil	44.6%	40.9%	23.4%	1.74×	2.45
ADO Den Haag to win to nil	2.6%	3.8%	13.1%	0.29×	26.12

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ajax Amsterdam by 3+	37.9%	34.8%	13.2%	2.62×	2.88
Ajax Amsterdam by 2	21.7%	24.1%	12.2%	1.98×	4.15
Ajax Amsterdam by 1	19.6%	17.1%	19.3%	0.88×	5.86
Draw	14.4%	11.8%	25.6%	0.46×	8.50
ADO Den Haag by 1	4.6%	2.7%	14.8%	0.18×	36.76
ADO Den Haag by 2	1.5%	2.7%	8.8%	0.31×	36.86
ADO Den Haag by 3+	0.4%	2.7%	6.8%	0.40×	36.89